The Next Regular Commentary: is scheduled for Friday, July 25th, covering June new orders for durable goods and new home sales. For detail on pending economic releases, see the schedule. (LAST UPDATED July 23rd)
No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions
July 23rd, 2014
• Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision More ...
No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales
July 22nd, 2014
• Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week’s GDP Reporting and Revisions More ...
No. 642: June Housing Starts
July 17th, 2014
• Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May More ...
No. 640: June Retail Sales
July 15th, 2014
• Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact More ...
No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income
July 3rd, 2014
• Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth More ...
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales
June 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant More ...
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts
June 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth More ...
Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.
Primers on Government Economic Reports
What you've suspected but were afraid to ask. The story behind unemployment, the Federal Deficit, CPI, GDP.
Specialized Economic Consulting
Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. Contact us to discuss your needs.
"Shadow Government Statistics"email@example.com
Tel: (415) 512-7701
American Business Analytics & Research LLC
The Hearst Building
5 Third Street, Suite 1301
San Francisco, CA 94103
Some Biographical & Additional Background Information
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me “John.” For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.
One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.
That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies.
Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.
Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here).
An old friend—the late-Doug Gillespie—asked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. — John Williams