DAILY UPDATE (April 16th to 19th – Updated for the March Cass Freight Index® / See the POSTING SCHEDULE for pending Commentaries and for coverage of pending Economic Releases). INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, DESPITE SOME MARCH REBOUNDS FROM WEATHER-DRIVEN FEBRUARY COLLAPSES -- Inflation broadly is soaring on top of still deteriorating Economic Activity, disrupted by the Pandemic and recent extreme weather. See the LATEST NUMBERS section and pending No. 1460 for expanded detail on these headlines: -- March 2021 Cass Freight Index® recovered its weather-driven February plunge. -- Housing Starts showed a statistically meaningful monthly rebound from weather-depressed February activity. -- Constrained by Motor Vehicle production issues for a second month, March Industrial Production came in well below expectations, with a headline 1.4% monthly gain, up just 0.9% net of downside revisions to February activity, which declined by 2.6% (-2.6%), suggestive of slowing First-Quarter 2021 GDP. –- Despite intensifying Production issues, surging Motor Vehicle sales reportedly drove a greater than expected 9.1% monthly surge in March Real Retail Sales, rebounding from a 3.1% (-3.1%) weather-driven plunge in February; watch for a likely stabilizing 2.9% (-2.9%) pullback in April 2021 sales. -- March annual Consumer Price Index inflation hit an unadjusted three-year high of 2.62%, as gasoline prices soared to multi-year highs, not seen since well before the 2020 Oil Price War. -- March Producer Price Index exploded, with respective record annualized First-Quarter PPI inflation levels of 9.0% in Aggregate, 16.0% in Goods and 5.6% in Services. -- February 2021 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit deteriorated sharply, in deepening trend for a record quarterly shortfall and meaningful hit to First-Quarter GDP. -- March 2021 Unemployment and Payroll Employment showed some improvement against the early Pandemic impact of one year ago, but still gave no indication of imminent economic recovery. -- February 2021 Nominal Construction Spending declined in the month, on top of respective upside and downside revisions to Private and Public Construction. -- Final Estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP revised minimally higher by 0.2% to 4.3%. –- Net of volatile Commercial Aircraft orders, February Real New Orders for Durable Goods declined 3.2% (-3.2%) in the month, by 0.6% (-0.6%) year-to-year.

U.S. GOVERNMENT’S FINANCIAL CONDITION DETERIORATED SHARPLY IN 2020 -– The “2020 Financial Report of the U.S. Government” indicated a deepening Negative Net Position (Net Worth) of $113.8 trillion, versus $103.4 trillion in 2019 (see SYSTEMIC RISK section and pending Commentaries 1459 to 1461). FED’S LIQUIDITY EXPANSION ACCELERATES, with a record post-Pandemic surge in the Monetary Base, not seen since the Banking System Collapse drove the Great Recession, plus a related, historic, record surge in Currency in Circulation. See SYSTEMIC RISK and pending No. 1459 for expanded detail on these headlines: -- Money Supply year-to-year growth soared to record highs in February 2021, amidst mounting Inflation fears. -- ShadowStats “Basic M1” year-to-year growth hit 69.6% in February vs. 63.0% in January, with the Fed’s newly redefined M1 at 357.1% vs. 350.9% (that annual comparison is inconsistent; 32.1% vs. 30.8% would be more consistent). -- Amidst upwardly revised projections for 2021 GDP and Inflation, the March 2021 FOMC held its highly accommodative monetary policies in place, with no changes expected through 2023.

• G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. - Pandemic-Driven U.S. Economic Collapse Continues in a Hardening, Protracted “L”-Shaped Non-Recovery

- Severe Systemic Structural Damage from the Shutdown Will Forestall Meaningful Economic Rebound into 2022 or Beyond, Irrespective of Advances in Coronavirus Vaccines and Treatments

- Panicked, Unlimited Federal Reserve Money Creation and Federal Government Deficit Spending Continue and Will Expand, Triggering Major Domestic Inflation

- With Fundamental Dollar Debasement Intensifying, Holding Physical Gold and Silver Protects the Purchasing Power of One’s Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Central Bank or Other Machinations to the Contrary.

Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats outlook, headline economic news and background information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for Publicly Available Special Reports and Contact Information.

• L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S .. Seasonally adjusted, the March 2021 Cass Freight Index® gained 3.4% in the month, recovering its “Polar Vortex,” weather driven 3.2% (-3.2%) plunge in February (April 16th, CassInfo.com - See detail at https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2021 and scroll down). The March 2021 unadjusted series gained 10.03% year-to-year, versus a weather-deflated 4.16% in February and 8.61% in January. That weather driven, downside February aberration, broke a rising string of annual gains back to 2.43% in October 2020. Such followed a 1.84% (-1.84%) annual decline in September 2020, which then was the 22nd consecutive year-to-year monthly decline. The recent monthly annual increases in Freight Activity were the first since the Federal Reserve’s tightening of November 2018 began strangling U.S. Economic Activity. As much of the economy declined into an unofficial “recession,” Freight Activity and the Cass Freight Index® did, too. As of March 2021, the “Two-Year Stacked Change” in the Index (March 2021 against March 2019) held negative for the 18th-straight month, albeit narrowed to a negligible 0.08% (-0.08%) from 3.67% (-3.67%) in February 2021. Given the March 2021 rebound from February weather, ShadowStats estimates that re-stabilizing April 2021 activity could take that two-year stacked change back to an annual decline around 1.5% (-1.5%). In like manner, March’s “Two-Year Stacked Change” in U.S. Industrial Production held negative for the 15th straight month, down by 3.74% (-3.74%) [see second paragraph following]. Although Freight Activity and some parts of the U.S. economy [not yet Industrial Production] have recovered 2020 pre-Pandemic levels, those pre-Pandemic levels already were below actual peak Freight and Economic Activity at the end of 2018, when the Fed moved to slow the economy. Freight and related areas such as Production and Manufacturing still have not recovered their true (albeit unofficial) pre-recession peaks. -- ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Freight Index® as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries. Full economic analysis of the latest monthly and quarterly economic series follows in No. 1460

(April 16) March 2021 Housing Starts and Building Permits both showed meaningful monthly gains, with Starts rebounding sharply from a weather-driven February plunge. As with Real Retail Sales, April’s Starts activity likely will see some pullback from March’s catch-up surge (Census Bureau). March 2021 Building Permits gained a statistically significant 2.7% in the month (90% confidence interval), having declined by a revised 8.8% (-8.8%) [previously 10.8% (-10.8%)] in February and having gained 10.7% in January. March Housing Starts jumped by a statistically meaningful 19.4% in the month, rebounding from a weather-driven collapse of 11.3% (-11.3%) [previously 10.3% (-10.3%)] in February, and a revised January decline of 1.7% (-1.7%) [previously 5.1% (-5.1%). As headlined, March 2021 Building Permits and Housing Starts respectively gained 30.2% and 37.0% year-to-year against Pandemic-savaged March 2020 activity, up respectively against their February 2020 pre-Pandemic peaks by 22.8% and 11.0%. That said, both headline March 2021 Permits and Starts still held shy of ever recovering their pre-Great Recession peak levels of activity, respectively by 22.0% (-22.0%) and 23.5% (-23.5%).

(April 15) Disrupted by the Pandemic, year-to-year change in March 2021 Industrial Production turned positive for the first time in 18 months (since September 2019), gaining 1.02% year-to-year, having declined by 4.77% (-4.77%) in February 2021 (Federal Reserve Board). Yet, that annual gain was against Pandemic-collapsed activity in March 2020. Against its pre-Pandemic peak activity of February 2020, headline March 2021 production still declined by 3.40% (-3.40%), more in line with the February 2021 annual decline. A two-year stacked decline (against March 2019) showed March 2021 activity down by 3.74% (-3.74%), versus 5.00% (-5.00%) in February 2021. The issues here and the ShadowStats approaches to related reporting and graphics is detailed in pending Benchmark Commentary No. 1459, with extended detail and graphs following in Economic Commentary No. 1460. Otherwise, March 2021 Industrial Production gained 1.44% in the month (up by 0.89% net of revisions), having declined by 2.62% (-2.62%) in February.

Parallel numbers for March 2021 Manufacturing showed a monthly gain of 2.73% [2.11% net of revisions], against a monthly drop of 3.73% (-3.73%) in February. Annual growth turned positive by 3.14% in March 2021, versus 20 straight months of annual decline, from July 2019 through a 4.66% (-4.66%) drop in February 2021. March 2021 activity, however, was down by 2.06% (-2.06%) against its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak, and was down in a two-year stacked decline of 2.34% (-2.34%) in March 2021, versus 4.99% (-4.99%) in February 2021. Mining showed a monthly gain of 5.66% [5.83% net of revisions], against a monthly drop of 5.62% (-5.62%) in February. Annual growth held negative at 8.82% (-8.82%) for the 12th month (since April 2020), down by 10.39% (-10.39%) against its pre-Pandemic and pre-Oil Price War high, versus a February 2021 annual decline of 15.20% (-15.20%). Utilities showed a record monthly drop (since 1972) of 11.39% (-11.39%)[down 12.18% (-12.18%) net of revisions], against a monthly gain of 9.18% in February. A March 2021 annual decline of 0.22% (-0.22%) was seen there versus a 3.27% (-3.27%) drop against its pre-Pandemic high, and versus a February annual gain of 9.15%.

(April 15) Extreme monthly Retail Sales volatility is likely to continue for another month (Census). ShadowStats standardly removes growth due to inflation from the headline Retail Sales series, reporting it in Real or Inflation-Adjusted Terms, deflated by the seasonally-adjusted CPI-U as otherwise calculated by the St. Louis Fed. On that basis, the headline nominal March 2021 monthly Retail Sales gain of 9.8% was 9.1% in real terms, net of inflation, against a revised real decline of 3.1% (-3.1%) [previously 3.4% (-3.4%) in February and a revised 7.4% [previously 7.3%, initially 5.0%] gain in January. Those large monthly swings in activity reflected massive weather disruptions. Where the March 2021 9.1% real Retail Sales surge caught up missing February 2021 activity, a real monthly decline of 2.9% (-2.9%) in April 2021 appears likely to bring real Retail Sales back into balance, with monthly growth stabilizing, averaging around 0.9%. That said, real Sales gained year-to-year by 24.4% in March 2021, against Pandemic collapsed activity in March 2020. Against its pre-Pandemic peak of February 2020, March 2021 activity gained 15.9% (see the related discussion in pending Nos. 1459 and 1460. That annual gain, or change from pre-Pandemic peak activity, followed an annual gain of 4.9% (previously 4.5%) in February 2021, and a revised 8.1% [previously 8.0%, initially 6.0%] in January 2021. The latest Retail Sales reporting here is subject to April 26th Benchmark Revisions.

(April 13) March 2021 unadjusted year-to-year March 2021 CPI-U Inflation jumped 2.62% -- a one-year high -- as gasoline prices soared, not only fully recovering pre-Oil Price War levels of a year ago, but also hitting the highest unadjusted levels since May of 2019 (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Headline March 2021 CPI-U gained 0.62% in the month, 2.62% year-to-year, against monthly and annual gains of 0.35% and 1.68% in February. That inflation pickup reflected more than a full recovery in gasoline prices, which had been severely depressed by the Oil Price War of one year ago. Such had had the effect of depressing headline U.S. inflation up through February 2021, including suppressing the 2021 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security by about one-percentage point to the headline 1.3%. By major sector, March Food prices gained 0.11% in the month, 3.47% year-to-year (vs. 0.17% and 3.62% in February); “Core” (ex-Food and Energy) prices gained 0.34% in March, 1.65% year-to-year (vs. 0.35% and 1.28% in February); Energy prices gained 5.00% in March, 13.17% year-to-year (vs. 3.85% and 2.36% in February), with underlying Gasoline prices gaining 9.10% in the month, 22.48% year-to-year (vs. 6.41% and 1.52% in February).

The March 2021 ShadowStats Alternate CPI (1980 Base) rose to 10.4% year-to-year, up from 9.4% in February 2021 and against 9.1% in January 2021. The ShadowStats Alternate CPI-U estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the government’s inflation-reducing gimmicks of the last four decades, which were designed specifically to reduce/ understate COLAs. Related graphs and methodology are available to all on the updated ALTERNATE DATA tab above. Subscriber-only data downloads and an Inflation Calculator are available there, with extended details in pending No. 1460.

(April 9) March 2021 Producer Prices exploded across the board, with record levels of annualized First-Quarter 2021 Inflation of 8.99% for Total PPI-FD, 16.04% for PPI-FD Goods Sector and 5.62% for PPI-FD Services Sector (BLS). Those record levels were in context of the current PPI historical series that began in November 2009. On the more-meaningful Goods side, Energy and “Core” inflation hit respective historic annualized quarterly peaks of 78.80% and 7.11%, while annualized quarterly Food inflation slowed to 5.44% having its earlier historic peak of 13.68% in Fourth-Quarter 2020. On a monthly basis, March 2021 PPI-FD Goods gained a stronger than expected 1.67%, versus 1.44% in February, with March 2021 year-to-year growth jumping to 6.97%, from 3.39% in February. Food, Energy and “Core” (net of Food and Energy) Sectors respectively gained 0.48%, 0.91% and 5.88% in the month, and 5.05%, 24.26% and 3.47% year-to-year.

(April 7) Continuing sharp deterioration with the headline February 2021 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit indicated a likely record First-Quarter 2021 trade shortfall, with a corresponding hit to First-Quarter GDP. (Census / Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA). Still in sharp deterioration against December 2020 and 4q2020 activity, the January 2021 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit narrowed minimally in revision, accompanied by initial headline reporting of an accelerated deepening in the February 2021 Deficit. Those numbers are on track for an historic, record Real Merchandise Trade Deficit in 1q2021. In turn, that suggests a deepening quarterly hit to the April 29th release of the “Advance” First-Quarter 2021 GDP. Expanded detail and graphs follow in No. 1460.

(April 2) Despite some monthly improvement, March 2021 Labor Details still indicate no GDP recovery at hand (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Seasonally-adjusted March 2021 Payroll Employment declined year-to-year by 4.5% (-4.5%) versus a revised 6.1% (-6.1%) [previously 6.2% (-6.2%)] in February 2021. That narrowed annual decline was helped by initial year-ago Pandemic impact on labor conditions. February 2020 activity was the pre-Pandemic series peak, and March 2020 data were net of minimal initial Pandemic hit, in advance of the massive collapse seen in the April 2020 numbers. Against the Pre-Pandemic peak, March 2021 was down by 5.5% (-5.5%), versus the headline virus-narrowed 4.5% (-4.5%). Discussed and graphed in pending No. 1459, and consistent with recent annual growth comparisons to pre-Pandemic levels, a 5.5% (-5.5%) drop has not been seen since the 1946 post-World War II war-production shutdown of the U.S. economy. That circumstances still indicates no imminent recovery in the U.S. GDP, irrespective of usual reporting games played with the headline GDP series.

After thirteen months, the BLS still cannot count the Unemployed. Headline U.3 Unemployment also remained deep in non-recovery territory. The BLS acknowledged continuing misclassification of some “unemployed” persons as “employed,” in the Household Survey. Where the count of the understated unemployed had an “upside limit” of 636,000 persons in March 2021, the February 2021 upside estimate of understated unemployed was 756,000. The difference would be a potential headline U.3 of 6.44% instead of today’s headline 6.05%, which was down from a headline 6.22% in February. Fully adjusted for COVID-19 disruptions, based on BLS side-surveys of Pandemic impact, and with more than six million people missing from the headline U.S. labor force, actual headline U.3 unemployment still should be well above 10%, the highest unemployment rate since before World War II, outside of the Pandemic and possibly at the trough of the 1982-1983 recession. Broader March 2021 headline U.6 unemployment [including some decline in short-term discouraged workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons] eased to 10.71% from 11.07% in February. Including long-term discouraged/ displaced workers, the March 2021 ShadowStats Alternate Measure –- moving on top of the decline in U.6 –- notched minimally lower to 25.7%, from 25.8% in February 2021, reflecting some modeled transition of “short-term” to “long-term” discouraged workers, with the Pandemic having passed its 12-month anniversary. The latest Unemployment Rates are posted on the ALTERNATE DATA tab (above).

(April 1) February 2021 Real U.S. Construction Spending and its dominant Residential Construction Sector both turned down month-to-month, on top of upside revisions to January and December activity (April 1st, Census Bureau). Net of gains from rising inflation, real February Construction Spending declined month-to-month by 1.5% (-1.5%), having gained a revised 1.0% [previously 1.5%] in January and 2.0% [previously 1.1%] in December. Real annual growth slowed to 2.1% in February, from 3.4% [previously 2.9%] in January and 4.0% [previously 3.0%] in December. For the dominant Real Residential Construction Spending, accounting for 61.6% of February’s Private Construction, activity declined by 0.9% (-0.9%) in the month, against revised respective monthly gains of 2.0% [previously 2.3%] and 4.9% [previously 3.7%] in January and December. Real activity on an annual basis “slowed” to 17.5% in February, versus 18.7% [previously 17.7%] in January and 19.4% [previously 18.0%] in December. Public Sector Real Construction Spending declined month-to-month by 2.4% (-2.4%) in February, having gained 0.2% in January, with respective year-to-year declines of 3.3% (-3.3%) and 1.1% (-1.1%).

(March 25) Net of inflation, real annualized quarterly growth in 4q2020 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised higher by 0.24% to 4.33%, with Final Sales (net of Inventory buildup) effectively unrevised at 2.94%; initial reporting of Gross National Product (GNP) came in at 4.24%, while Gross Domestic Income (GDI) surged by 15.75%, catching up on lagged Third-Quarter growth (March 25th, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA). Still holding well shy of economic recovery – a circumstance exacerbated by rapidly slowing 1q2021 activity - the “final” estimate of 4q2020 growth increased to 4.33% (previously 4.09%, initially 4.01%), having gained 33.44% in 3q2020 (the equivalent GDI gain then was only 24.08%), with the GDP rebounding from respective 2q2020 and 1q2020 Pandemic-driven collapses of 31.38% (-31.38%) and 4.96% (-4.96%). Where full-year 2020 real GDP sank by 3.49% (-3.49%), respective 4q2020 annual declines in GDP, GNP and the GDI (theoretical income-side equivalent of the GDP’s product side) stood at 2.39% (-2.39%), 2.69% (-2.69%) and 1.49% (-1.49%).

(March 24) Surging, volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders boosted February 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods for a third month, yet aggregate orders still dropped 1.1% (-1.1%) in the month (Census). ShadowStats standardly views these numbers net of Commercial Aircraft order volatility and net of nominal growth in orders due to rising inflation. So structured, February Real New Orders declined by 3.2% (-3.2%) in month, having gained 0.8% in January, and declined year-to-year in February by 0.6% (-0.6%), having gained 4.8% in January.

(March 22) February 2021 Existing-Home Sales declined by 6.6% (-6.6%) month-to-month [down by 7.0% (-7.0%)] net of revisions, with annual growth slowing from 23.1% in January to 9.1% in February (The National Association of Realtors® [NAR] ©2021; see: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales). The monthly NAR surveying usually is highly stable, in contrast to nonsensical volatility common to the Census Bureau surveys. -- (March 23) February 2021 New-Home Sales plunged by a statistically significant 18.2% (-18.2%) in the month, with year-to-year growth slowing to 8.2% from 22.5% in January. Where the February plunge followed upside revisions to each of the prior three months, the net monthly change remained a statistically meaningful decline.

• S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- (April 6th) U.S. GOVERNMENT 2020 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS -- The deepening deficit net worth of the U.S. Government’s financial condition hit a record shortfall – negative net worth – of $113.8 trillion in fiscal year 2020 (year-ended September 30), widening from a $103.4 trillion negative net worth in 2019. That 2020 shortfall reflected an operating deficit “Net Position” or operating negative net worth of $26.8 trillion in 2020, widening from a Net Position deficit of $23.0 trillion in 2019, plus deepening unfunded Social Security and Medicare net liabilities (Closed Group) of $87.0 trillion in 2020, versus $80.4 trillion in 2019. As did her predecessors, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen described the current “Fiscal Path” as “Unsustainable,” with the government’s current Debt-to-GDP ratio at 100% in 2020, predicted to go to 623% before the end of the Century. Those indications are overly optimistic in the extreme. Allowing for the “Unfunded” Liabilities, the Debt-to GDP ratio was 531% in fiscal 2020. The 2020 Financial Report is available here: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/ -- ShadowsStats will provide extended analysis in pending No. 1461.

MONETARY BASE -- (April 6th, FRB and ShadowStats) Late-March and early-April 2021 continuing surges in the weekly Monetary Base, and component “Currency in Circulation” and “Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks” may explain some of Fed Chairman Powell’s policy tap-dancing at his March 17th FOMC Press Conference. The System increasingly appears to be on the brink of potential instability. The week-ended March 31st and the implied monthly averages of the March 2021 Monetary Base (see the Fed’s H.4.1), viewed against a pre-Pandemic base of February 2020, show Currency growth and the level of Bank Reserves at all-time highs and spiking, suggestive of mounting Banking System instabilities not seen since the Great Recession. Detailed discussion and graphs follow in pending No. 1459.

Repeated in the March 17th dictum, from the December 2020 and interim FOMC statements: “[T]he Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month [minimally $1.44 trillion per year] until substantial further progress has been made towards the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals [meaning higher inflation].” Fed Funds targeted at 0.00% to 0.25%, would continue for the duration of the Pandemic-driven economic collapse, and until such time as the Fed’s recently established policy of debasing the U.S. Dollar at a greater pace (boosting inflation) shows results. Specifically, the FOMC looks to boost headline “Core” PCE inflation above what previously had been its formal 2.0% target for an extended period time, again, with hoped-for results unlikely before 2023.

MONEY SUPPLY – (March 25) [Latest February 2021 numbers, reflecting the March 23rd benchmarking, are posted on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB.] On February 23rd, the Federal Reserve launched a new, redefined, monthly-only Money Supply M1 and M2 reporting (effective with the May 2020 detail), essentially eliminating the M1-unique information, effectively masking it as M2. ShadowStats has launched an alternative “Basic M1” Money Supply, which maintains much of the information that was unique to M1. Full, expanded detail, including new graphs and tables, follows in No. 1459. With the Fed effectively redefining M1 as M2, with a resulting, January 2021 M1 record annual growth of 355.2%. With March 23rd reporting and benchmark revisions, the just-redefined M1 hit 357.1% in February vs. a benchmark revised (in its second month of reporting?) 350.9% in January, yet that annual comparison is inconsistent; 32.1% vs. 30.8% would be consistent, but would not be so reported until May 2021 data. As last reported, with prior definitions, the old M1 series in January 2021 was up by record 69.7%, but no hard estimate can be made for February 2021, since key underlying detail no longer is available. Noted in today’s headlines, ShadowStats new “Basic M1” hit 69.6% in February vs. 63.0% in January (see the next paragraph)]. The old M2 components now added to the old M1, do not behave in a manner consistent with original M1.

Newly redefined M1 and related information now minimalized by the Federal Reserve, however, largely still are available from ShadowsStats’ “Basic M1,” which was the Federal Reserve’s original Money Supply concept.” The effect of the FOMC’s M1 redefinition was to erase the appearance of what had been the increasing headline flow of Cash from M2 to M1, with liquidity-strapped Consumers and Businesses moving out of Savings (formerly not in M1) into Cash and Checking accounts. Pre-redefinition, M1 accounted for 28% of the Fed’s aggregate Money Supply M2. Post-redefinition, M1 accounts for 93% of M2 and, as a result, reveals little more information than the does the aggregate M2 number, which was not redefined.

Where much of the headline information from the old M1 has been masked by redefinitions, basic-M1 information still is available. Accordingly, ShadowStats has launched/ reintroduced an alternative “Basic M1” Money Supply. Seven-plus decades ago, it was the original Money Supply measure: Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). At last reporting, “Basic M1” accounted for 79.4% of the pre-redefined M1, before it was converted effectively to the new M2. Full, expanded detail, including historic data and comparative graphs for all the relevant “M” measures follows shortly in Benchmark Commentary No. 1459. Historic detail and graphs using “Basic M1,” historical M2 and the M3/ShadowStats Ongoing M3 measures have been updated and posted to the ALTERNATE TAB, linked above. There is no change in the ShadowStats outlook, as has been discussed here in the last month.

Systemic Turmoil is just beginning, with both the Fed and U.S. Government driving uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth and uncontained Deficit Spending. Again, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus will be needed at least into 2022, irrespective of the nature of the COVID-19 vaccines. Indeed, likely leading into accelerating inflation, Hyperinflation, both extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli are underway. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. 1451 and No. 1454, with a fully updated and expanded review pending in Benchmark Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1461.

Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and unfolding political circumstances. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment hold out some prospect of limited economic improvement in 2021 or 2022. Still, many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed and likely will expand well into 2023, per both the current FOMC outlook and the ongoing ShadowStats assessment.

SHADOWSTATS ALERT: In context of the still-evolving Coronavirus Pandemic and related or economic crises, near-term financial-market risks from negative economic, liquidity and political issues, are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. That said, irrespective of recent relative weakness in gold prices and related Central Bank or other market machinations, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead remains for: (1) A continuing and renewed deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc and other stronger currencies, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility, continuing high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the “Plunge Protection Team”), or as otherwise gamed by the FOMC.

• P O S T I N G .. S C H E D U L E .. (April 16th) -- Commentary postings on www.ShadowStats.com are advised to Subscribers by a coincident e-mail, along with appropriate links. [Subject to Change] Posting of Benchmark Commentary No. 1459 will post within the next day. Commentary No. 1460 follows over the weekend (probably Monday), reviewing the full spectrum of the latest economic and financial-market numbers. No. 1461 is targeted for the April 24th weekend, benchmarking the ShadowStats Long-Term Economic and Inflation Outlook.

PENDING EVENTS AND DATA: The Commerce Department will post March 2021 New Home Sales on Friday, April 23rd at 10:00 a.m. ET, ShadowStats coverage should post here by 3:00 p.m. ET.

• ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. ShadowStats postings of December 2020 and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on “Archives,” at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage.

• ALTERNATE DATA TAB provides the latest headline data, exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Money Supply and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar. Data downloads and the Inflation Calculator are subscriber only.