Flash Update
FLASH UPDATE
October 5, 2007
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September Jobs Data Cannot Be Believed
September M3 Annual Growth Likely to Top 14.5%
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PLEASE NOTE: The SGS-Alternate GDP and the monthly SGS Financial-Weighted Dollar tables and graphs have been updated on the Alternate Data Series tab at www.shadowstats.com. -- Best wishes to all, John Williams
This morning's update offers a couple of thoughts on the September jobs report. A full Flash Update with more detailed analysis will follow over the weekend.
The nonsensical 110,000 +/- 129,000 surge in seasonally-adjusted September payrolls, was a gain of 228,000 net of prior-period revisions. The reported monthly gain still was statistically indistinguishable from an outright monthly contraction. The August change was revised from an initial loss of 4,000 jobs to a gain of 89,000.
These data were released in the context of a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announcement that the next benchmark revision will show that March 2007 payrolls were overstated by roughly 297,000 jobs.
The seasonally-adjusted September U.3 unemployment rate was reported at 4.70% +/- 0.23%, up from 4.64% in August.
These data from the BLS are nearly worthless as economic indicators and are highly suspect, given the global financial markets in ongoing crisis and given the positive ratings of U.S. President and Congress hitting historic nadirs. The reported numbers continue to run counter to better-quality employment indicators such as new claims for unemployment and the collapsing help-wanted advertising index.
On the inflation front, based on early data, September's SGS Ongoing M3 appears likely to show annual growth of 14.5% to 14.6%, up from 14.0% in August.
Further detail will follow this weekend and in the October SGS newsletter.
The October SGS is targeted for posting during the week of October 15th. An e-mail advice will be made of its and any intervening Flash Update/Alert postings.