Weaker-Than-Consensus 148,000 Payroll Gain Was Boosted by Downside Revisions,
Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal a New Recession


Annual Household Survey Revisions Were Negligible for Headline U.3, but
Not as Placid for Broader Unemployment and Other Measures


December 2017 Unemployment Rates Were Mixed Month-to-Month:
U.3 Eased to 4.07% from 4.12%, U.6 Rose to 8.08% from 7.99% and the
ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.7%: No Full Employment


Indicators of Stressed-Employment Conditions Have Re-Intensified,
Following Brief, Hurricane-Distorted Improvements in September


Private Surveying of December Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Gains, but with
Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion


Monthly Trade Deficit Topped $50 Billion for First Time in Five Years, with
Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Solid Track for
Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007


Despite a November Gain on Top of Upside Revisions, Real Construction Spending
Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse,
Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)


December 2017 M3 Annual Growth Jumped to Back to a Two-Year of 4.8%, as
Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Three-Year High of 9.7%

Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document