Preview
I anticipate a light writing schedule for the balance of the week, as I
turn some needed attention to matters involving the website.
* I will have out on Friday a review of revised GDP results due to be
released that morning. This will be the Commerce Department's second look, the
so-called "preliminary estimate," at last year's fourth quarter. The consensus
forecast calls for a small downward revision -- to 3.8%, give or take -- from
the "advance" estimate, which was released on 1/30 and came in at 4% annual
rate of real growth.
* During the balance of the week, I hope to make some additional progress
in the model bond portfolio's T-Bond short position. (More on this in the
"Review" section below.)
* Also sometime during the balance of the week, I will publish a detailed
memorandum regarding the Gillespie Research website.
_____
Review
* INTEREST RATES: If stock prices soften up some more this week (I think
they will), this may provide some additional lift to Treasury prices. In turn,
this may afford an opportunity to add to the model bond account's existing
short position in the Treasury 5.375s of 2031. At present, the account holds a
150,000 (par value) short in this security, established at a yield to maturity
of 4.89%.
* STOCKS: It's too early yet to concluded for sure that stocks have been
engaged in a "failing rally." However, the characteristics of such an event
that have been discussed in recent material remain very much intact. If so, it
would likely result in a serious overall setback in equity prices.
* POLITICS: The major recent event in this area was Sunday's announcement
by Ralph Nader that he is running again for President. There's little (as in
"no") question that Nader's capturing almost 2.9 million votes in 2000, many
amassed in tight states, cost Democrats the White House. What is very much in
question, however, is whether he will ( or can) have a similar impact this
time around. I think not, and this is assuming this is a "real" candidacy. He
says it is; I'm not convinced.
Moreover, Pat Buchanan received upwards of 500,000 votes in 2000 (not
consolidated into the table below), which clearly caused problems in some
states for the Bush/Cheney ticket. At the moment, it appears there will be no
similar challenge in 2004, but one never knows.
---------------------------------------------
2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION --
POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE SUMMARY*
(Popular Vote in Millions)
---------------------------------------------
Rep. Dem. Green
---------------------------------
Bush/ Gore/ Nader/
Cheney Lieberman LaDuke Total
---------------------------------
Popular* 50.456 51.000 2.883 104.339
48.3% 48.9% 2.8% 100.0%
---------------------------------------------
Electoral# 271 266 0 537
50.4% 49.4% 0.0% 99.8%
---------------------------------------------
Source: Federal Election Committee.
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*Based on a Census Bureau estimate, the US
voting-age population in November 2000 was
205.815 million. Therefore, the above three
plus all other Presidential candidates on
various states' ballots received the vote
of 51.3% of the voting-age population.
---------------------------------------------
#There are a total of 538 electoral votes,
apportioned among the states based on each
state's number of senators and house mem-
bers. In addition, the District of Columbia
has three electoral votes. The 2000 tally
does not add to 538, because of the ab-
stention of one DC elector.
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