Most of the influence from this week's expiration probably has already
washed through the market, although a four-day trading week may have rearranged
normal patterns a bit.
Coming into today's session, the expiration has failed to provide the
firepower to propel almost all the bellwether measures to new highs, not even
marginal highs. (The NYSE Composite is an exception. It did manage a new
closing high, albeit a marginal one. Its close of 6,770 on Tuesday eclipsed the
2/11 close by 19 points or 0.3%.) Moreover, the recent lackluster performance
this has been against a backdrop of continuing good economic news and earnings
reports. If this is the week's final outcome, it will represent at least a
modicum of disappointment to the bullish quarter, which, of course, currently
constitutes the vast majority of people.
---------------------------------------------
SELECTED STOCK-MARKET MEASURES
(Ranked in Order of 02/11 to 02/19 Returns)
---------------------------------------------
02/19 02/18 02/17 02/11 01/26
Close Close Close Close Close
---------------------------------------------
NYSE Comp. 6715 6719 6770 6751 6672
DJIA 10665 10672 10715 10738 10703
S&P 500 1147 1152 1157 1158 1155
Wil. 5000 11177 11237 11284 11293 11282
Value Line 378 382 383 384 384
NASDAQ 100 1485 1507 1507 1514 1554
Russ. 2000 583 591 594 597 602
---------------------------------------------
Change To 02/19 From:
--------------------------
02/18 02/17 02/11 01/26
--------------------------
NYSE Comp. -0.1% -0.8% -0.5% +0.6%
DJIA -0.1% -0.5% -0.7% -0.4%
S&P 500 -0.4% -0.9% -0.9% -0.7%
Wil. 5000 -0.5% -0.9% -1.0% -0.9%
Value Line -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -1.6%
NASDAQ 100 -1.5% -1.5% -1.9% -4.4%
Russ. 2000 -1.4% -1.9% -2.3% -3.2%
---------------------------------------------
Average -0.7% -1.1% -1.3% -1.5%
Median -0.5% -0.9% -1.0% -0.9%
---------------------------------------------
Yesterday's reversal certainly had to be disappointing to bulls. At
respective intraday highs, the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 were 0.9%, 1.0% and
2.6% above Wednesday closes, only to finish the day in the red, virtually on
their lows at that. While NYSE volume was no barnburner, decent positive breadth
turned into something far uglier at the close. On the day, there were almost
2,100 declines, and up volume came in at a mere 37% of total volume.
Marginal events are always very difficult to detect, but they are
generally developments of major import. I certainly define a failing-rally top as a
marginal event, and while it remains too early to conclude the equity market
is making one, the ingredients do remain in place.
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