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| Miscellany - Oct. 8, 2003 |
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California
* The people of California have spoken -- loudly! Part of the recall
outcome's bottom line was that Gray Davis was reviled by the state's
electorate far more than polling data was able (or willing) to capture.
* Perceived Democrat voting constituencies within the state did not
come through for either Davis or Cruz Bustamante. And this was despite immense
help from Democrat politicos from outside the state, including the Clinton and
Gore machines. In addition, exit polling indicated that the shameful
11th-hour behavior of the LA Times clearly backfired, driving even more voters into
the Schwarzenegger column.
* The immense turnout as well as the margin of Schwarzenegger's
victory should make it a good deal more difficult for the guerilla warfare against
the outcome promised by some Democrat operatives. But California's rich
history of having courts flaunt the will of voters could still come into play, so
we will have to see what might develop on this front in the period immediately
ahead.
* Despite the magnitude of the California outcome, it remains an
inescapable fact that little can be done in the near term to fix California's
awesome, Stephen King-like fiscal nightmare.
The Dollar
* The US dollar's most recent exchange-rate swoon continues. Over
the last couple trading sessions, the mid to longer end of the Treasury curve
has taken this development seriously, while the stock market has not. One
market is correct in its response, the other is not. Do you care to guess which of
the two markets I believe is responding correctly?
"Better Than Expected"
* We've again entered the Twilight Zone, that quarterly period in
which corporate managements see if they have again succeeded at fooling most of
the people most of the time. And "most of the people" in this usage are Wall
Street security "analysts." I speak, of course, of the little game that
continues to be played to generate "better-than-expected" earnings, which are then
hyped to the moon by CNBC and the other outlets in the regular propaganda loop.
* As the third-quarter earnings season unfolds, I suggest making many
trips to "EDGAR," to see how much of the positive surprises for many
companies came from quarter-end currency adjustments.
* And now that the SEC appears like it might have more of an appetite
for cleaning up the Wall Street brothel, I have a suggestion. To wit: Do
away with all the protections, etc. afforded in the "guidance process." This
would go a long, long way in helping to turn analysts back into analysts, rather
than gullible, willing lapdogs for corporate managements.
Quarter-End Data Summary
I await one missing piece of data to complete my third-quarter
statistical summary. The US Treasury should publish these numbers soon, and I will
forward my compilation shortly thereafter.
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