Earlier this morning, the Labor Department released employment data covering June. Based on the report, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.6%; payroll employment expanded by 112,000 jobs.
Reported results for the unemployment rate were right on the consensus forecast, which predicted no change. However, results for payroll employment were far below the consensus forecast, which was looking for a gain of about 250,000 jobs.
There are two components to each month's employment report, the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the household survey, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the behavior of the financial markets. The report today indicated an increase of 112,000 jobs during June. This compared with a decline of 14,000 in payroll employment during June of 2003.
Today's report included downward revisions to May and April payroll data, to +235,000 from +248,000, and to +324,000 from +346,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by a net of 671,000 jobs, compared to the 706,000 gain before the May and April adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment contracted by 62,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
---------------------------------------
Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
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June 112 -14 25 -150 -25 257
May 235 -28 2 1 231 214
Apr. 324 -20 -68 -271 308 382
---------------------------------
Tot. 671 -62 -41 -420 514 853
=== == == === === ===
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For 2004 to date, payroll employment has grown by a reported 1,266,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 237,000 jobs during the first six months of 2003.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose two cents in June, to $15.65. This represented a gain of approximately 0.1% from May's $15.63, which was revised down by one cent from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.0%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series.
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
06/04 5.6 6.3 +112 -14 15.65 15.34 2.0%
05/04 5.6 6.1 +248 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.6 6.0 +346 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 +353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 +83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.6 5.8 +159 +94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
12/03 5.7 6.0 +8 -209 15.45 15.18 1.8%
11/03 5.9 5.9 +83 -37 15.46 15.13 2.2%
10/03 6.0 5.7 +88 +83 15.43 15.10 2.2%
09/03 6.1 5.7 +67 -47 15.41 15.05 2.4%
08/03 6.1 5.7 -25 +11 15.41 15.00 2.7%
07/03 6.2 5.8 -45 -111 15.40 14.96 2.9%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 <===========> 3.8 <================>
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.4 6.2 9.5 2.5 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 9.8 0.7 4.5 2.3 5.0
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.1 3.1 1.6 7.0 2.1
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.5 -0.4 3.3 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 2.7 0.6 3.0 6.5 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.0 1.3 3.0 4.0 2.6
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.2 4.0 4.2 0.9 1.7
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.8 141.9 4.9%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.6 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.6 144.6 1.4%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
11/03 184.6 181.4 1.8% 144.5 139.7 3.4%
10/03 184.9 181.2 2.0% 144.7 140.0 3.4%
09/03 185.1 180.9 2.3% 143.8 139.0 3.5%
08/03 184.5 180.6 2.2% 143.5 138.6 3.5%
07/03 183.8 180.1 2.1% 142.8 138.6 3.0%
06/03 183.5 179.7 2.1% 142.7 138.8 2.8%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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