John Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Gillespie Research Archives

June Producer Prices   - Jul. 15, 2004


Summary

Earlier today, the Labor Department released producer price data covering June. According to Labor, the Producer Price Index fell 0.3% during the month, due to large declines in energy and food prices. With the recent firming in world oil prices, the duration of any major decline in overall energy prices certainly is in question. Meanwhile, the June PPI, excluding food and energy, headed in the other direction, rising 0.2%.
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In today's report on June producer prices, the Labor Department reported a decline of 0.3%, with the food and energy components falling 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively. With food and energy removed -- or the so-called "core" rate -- the PPI rose 0.2%. This constitutes a rather wide divergence between the two measures.

Year over year through June, producer prices rose 4.0%. For the three months ended June, the PPI was up at an annual rate of 5.0%.
          Consumer       Producer      Import
         Price Index   Price Index     Prices
Month/   ---------------------------------------
Year     Y/Y  L3Mos*   Y/Y  L3Mos*   Y/Y  L3Mos*
------------------------------------------------
06/04   -Rel. 7/16-   4.0%   5.0%   5.6%   5.7%
05/04   3.0%   5.5%   4.9%   8.5%   6.8%  10.0% 
04/04   2.3%   3.9%   3.6%   5.3%   4.6%   5.8%
03/04   1.7%   5.1%   1.4%   5.1%   1.1%  11.5%
------------------------------------------------
          *Trailing three-month com-
          pound annual rate of change.
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