Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department released employment data covering August. Based on the report, the unemployment rate fell 0.1%, to 5.4%. Meanwhile, payroll employment expanded by 144,000 jobs.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment exceeded the consensus forecast, which had predicted no change. Results for payroll employment were slightly below the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain a of about 150,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated an increase of 144,000 jobs during August. This compared with a decline of 25,000 in payroll employment during August of 2003.
Today's report included upward revisions to both July and June payroll data, to +73,000 from +32,000, and to +96,000 from +78,000. Therefore, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by a net of 313,000 jobs, compared to the 254,000 gain before the July and June adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment contracted by 84,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
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Aug. 144 -25 11 -141 -28 193
July 73 -45 -111 -115 160 295
June 96 -14 25 -150 -25 257
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Tot. 313 -84 -75 -406 107 745
=== == == === === ===
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For 2004 to date, payroll employment has grown by a reported 1,440,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 307,000 jobs during the first eight months of 2003.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings were up five cents in August, to $15.77. This represented a gain of approximately 0.3 from July's $15.72, which was revised up by two cents from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.3%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
08/04 5.4 6.1 +144 -25 15.77 15.41 2.3%
07/04 5.5 6.2 +73 -45 15.72 15.40 2.1%
06/04 5.6 6.3 +96 -14 15.66 15.34 2.1%
05/04 5.6 6.1 +208 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.6 6.0 +324 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 +353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 +83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.6 5.8 +159 +94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
12/03 5.7 6.0 +8 -209 15.45 15.18 1.8%
11/03 5.9 5.9 +83 -37 15.46 15.13 2.2%
10/03 6.0 5.7 +88 +83 15.43 15.10 2.2%
09/03 6.1 5.7 +67 -47 15.41 15.05 2.4%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 <======> 3.7 2.5 <===========>
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.4 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.5 142.8 4.0%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.4 142.7 4.0%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.8 141.9 4.9%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.6 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
11/03 184.6 181.4 1.8% 144.5 139.7 3.4%
10/03 184.9 181.2 2.0% 144.7 140.0 3.4%
09/03 185.1 180.9 2.3% 143.8 139.0 3.5%
08/03 184.5 180.6 2.2% 143.5 138.6 3.5%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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