Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.1% during August. This left the year-over-year change at 2.7% -- again providing ample evidence of why the average American distrusts government economic data!
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Foreword
The next installment of John Williams' series on government economic data/reporting is scheduled for publication sometime next week. It will deal specifically with the Consumer Price Index.
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Today's Numbers
Per today's report from the Labor Department, the CPI rose 0.1% during August. Although a more sensible result than July's reported decline, no one I know identifies with a CPI that claims inflation is up a mere 2.7%, year over year.
Contributing to the "tame" result (description of the CNBC crowd) were a 0.5% decline in energy prices, a 0.4% decline in apparel prices, and 0.2% dips in the costs of transportation and recreation. Housing and food prices rose a tepid 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
The CPI's 0.1% rise was modestly better than a consensus forecast that was looking for an increase of 0.2%.
Year over year as of August, the CPI (all items) rose 2.7%, versus 3.0% in July. For 2004's first eight months, the CPI was up 2.4%, compared with a 1.6% increase during the first eight months of 2003 (nonannualized results).
Excluding food and energy (the so-called "core" rate (of particular interest to those who do not eat, heat or drive), August's year-over-year gain was 1.7%, versus 1.8% as of July.
The Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and import prices are three of the four measures we employ in our "Inflation Watch" chart appearing on the GRA website. We will be updating this graph shortly to reflect the latest numbers, now that the August data have been reported for all three.
The updated numbers below will be posted to the "Inflation" category on the GRA website, accessed through the "Data & Charts" link on the navigation bar.
Consumer Producer Import
Price Index Price Index Prices
Month/ ---------------------------------------
Year Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos*
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08/04 2.7% 1.3% 3.4% -1.1% 7.2% 7.3%
07/04 3.0% 3.7% 4.0% 2.2% 5.5% 6.5%
06/04 3.2% 4.8% 4.0% 4.7% 5.7% 6.1%
05/04 3.0% 5.5% 4.9% 8.5% 6.9% 10.4%
04/04 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8%
03/04 1.7% 5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5%
02/04 1.7% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 11.2%
01/04 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 11.7%
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*Trailing 3-month compound
annual rate of change.
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