Summary
I'll get out a more detailed analysis of today's GDP revisions soon. In the meantime, I'm posting the data and changes in tabular format.
Although real GDP growth for the quarter was revised to 3.3% from the prior estimate of 2.8%, the overall upward revsion was neither as exciting as its magnitude might suggest, nor was it very solid.
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FINAL ESTIMATE OF SECOND-QUARTER 2004
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Released
09/29 -- Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars
at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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2Q2004 1Q2004 Change/
Final Final Impact
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Real GDP 10784.7 10697.5 3.3%
Inventory Change 61.1 40.0 $21.1
Real Final Sales 10722.3 10655.8 2.5%
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Components of GDP
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Personal Consumption 7572.4 7543.0 1.6%
Nonres. Fixed Investment* 1207.9 1173.0 12.4%
Resid. Fixed Investment 563.6 542.5 16.5%
Net Exports -580.3 -550.1 -$30.2
Government Purchases* 1946.5 1935.8 2.2%
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Implicit Price Deflators:
Gross Domestic Product 3.2% 2.7% --
Gross Domestic Purchases 3.5% 3.4% --
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*MEMO ITEMS
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Government Purchases
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Total 1946.5 1935.8 2.2%
State & Local 1228.3 1222.4 1.9%
Federal 718.1 713.3 2.7%
National Defense 479.9 477.6 1.9%
Nonresidential
Fixed Investment
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Total 1207.9 1173.0 12.4%
Structures 241.7 237.7 6.9%
Equipment & Software 975.5 943.7 14.2%
Info. Processing
Equip. & Software 565.4 547.0 14.1%
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MAJOR GDP COMPONENTS -- CHANGES BETWEEN
"FINAL" AND "PRELIMINARY" 2Q2004 ESTIMATES
(Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars at
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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2Q2004 2Q2004
Final Prelim. Change
----------------------------
Real GDP 10784.7 10771.4 13.3
Inventory Change 61.1 57.7 3.4
Real Final Sales 10722.3 10712.3 10.0
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Personal Consumption 7572.4 7572.7 -0.3
Nones. Fixed Invest. 1207.9 1207.0 0.9
Resid. Fixed Invest. 563.6 561.5 2.1
Net Exports -580.3 -588.7 8.4
Govt. Purchases 1946.5 1947.4 -0.9
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REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES, 2000 CHAINED DOLLARS)
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Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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2004 4.5% 3.3% -- --
2003 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
2002 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
2001 -0.5% 1.2% -1.4% 1.6%
2000 1.0% 6.4% -0.5% 2.1%
1999 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 7.3%
1998 4.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.2%
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MEMO ITEM: Annual change in real GDP
before and after the "comprehensive
revision" published by the Commerce
Department on 12/10/03.
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1929-2002 1959-1992 1992-2002
---------------------------------
After 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
Before 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
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