Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department released employment data covering September. Based on the report, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4%. Meanwhile, payroll employment expanded by 96,000 jobs.
_____
In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate matched the consensus forecast, which had predicted no change. Results for payroll employment were well below the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain a of about 150,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 96,000 during September. This compared with a gain of 67,000 in payroll employment during September of 2003.
Today's release contained negligible net revisions to August and July payroll data, to +128,000 from +144,000, and to +85,000 from +73,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by a net of 309,000 jobs, compared to the 313,000 gain before the August and July adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment contracted by 3,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
---------------------------------------
TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
---------------------------------------
Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
---------------------------------------
Sep. 96 67 -47 -267 89 187
Aug. 128 -25 11 -141 -28 193
July 85 -45 -111 -115 160 295
---------------------------------
Tot. 309 -3 -147 -523 221 675
=== == === === === ===
---------------------------------------
For 2004 to date, payroll employment has grown by a reported 1,532,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 240,000 jobs during the first nine months of 2003.
Benchmark Revisions to the Payroll Survey
This morning's report included the following announcement from the Labor Department regarding its annual benchmark revisions to payroll data:
"In accordance with annual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has completed preliminary tabulations of the universe counts for the first quarter of this year. The tabulations indicate that the estimate of total nonfarm payroll employment will require an upward revision of approximately 236,000, or two-tenths of one percent, for the March 2004 reference month. The historical average for benchmark revisions over the last 10 years has been plus or minus three-tenths of one percent. BLS will publish data revised to the March 2004 benchmark on February 4, 2005, with the release of data for January 2005."
Hurricane Impact
This morning's report contained the following comments about the recent hurricanes:
"Four hurricanes struck the U.S. during August and September: Charley in mid-August, Frances early in September, Ivan in mid-September, and Jeanne late in the month. BLS made additional data collection efforts for the hurricane-affected counties. Establishment survey response rates in September were within the normal range for these areas as well as for the U.S. as a whole.
"For weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, people have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. While some employed persons were off payrolls during the survey reference period because of the hurricane effects, some jobs were added as part of recovery efforts. It is not possible to quantify precisely the net impact of this unusual string of severe weather events on the payroll employment data for September. At the national level, the severe weather appears to have held down employment growth, but not enough to change materially the Bureau's assessment of the employment situation in September.
"In the household survey, people who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off."
_____
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose three cents in September, to $15.78. This represented a gain of approximately 0.2% from August's $15.75, which was revised down by two cents from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.4%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
-------------------------------------------------
KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
-------------------------------------------------
PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
09/04 5.4 6.1 +96 +67 15.78 15.41 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 +129 -25 15.75 15.41 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 +85 -45 15.71 15.40 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 +96 -14 15.66 15.34 2.1%
05/04 5.6 6.1 +208 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.6 6.0 +324 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 +353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 +83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.6 5.8 +159 +94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
12/03 5.7 6.0 +8 -209 15.45 15.18 1.8%
11/03 5.9 5.9 +83 -37 15.46 15.13 2.2%
10/03 6.0 5.7 +88 +83 15.43 15.10 2.2%
-------------------------------------------------
EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 <======> 3.7 2.5 <===========>
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.4 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
-------------------------------------------------
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
08/04 189.4 184.5 2.7% 148.4 143.5 3.4%
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.5 142.8 4.0%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.4 142.7 4.0%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.8 141.9 4.9%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.7 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
11/03 184.6 181.4 1.8% 144.5 139.7 3.4%
10/03 184.9 181.2 2.0% 144.7 140.0 3.4%
09/03 185.1 180.9 2.3% 143.8 139.0 3.5%
-------------------------------------------------
NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
-------------------------------------------------
|
