Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% during September. Remarkably, Labor reported a 0.4% decline in energy costs, yet again providing an example of why so many Americans have difficulty with the "viability" of government economic data!
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Per today's report from the Labor Department, the CPI rose 0.2% during September, right on the consensus forecast. This brought the year-over-year gain to 2.5%, a result with which few people I know (as in "no people I know") personally identify with.
Astonishingly, Labor reported a 0.4% decline in overall energy prices during September, and assumably with a straight face, made the following observation in today's release:
"Energy costs declined for the third consecutive month -- down 0.4 percent in September -- after advancing sharply in the first half of the year. Within energy, the index for household fuels decreased 0.9 percent, while the index for motor fuel rose 0.1 percent."
Elsewhere, 0.0% changes were reported for the food and the apparel components, while the housing, transportation, medical and education sectors came in with gains of 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
Year over year as of September, the CPI (all items) rose 2.5%, versus 2.7% in August. For 2004's first nine months, the CPI was up 2.6%, compared with a 1.9% increase during the first nine months of 2003 (nonannualized results).
Excluding food and energy (the so-called "core" rate, of particular interest to those who do not eat, heat or drive), September's year-over-year gain was 2.0%, versus 1.7% as of August.
The Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and import prices are three of the four measures we employ in our "Inflation Watch" chart appearing on the GRA website's home page. We will be updating this graph shortly to reflect the latest numbers, now that the September data have been reported for all four proxies.
The updated numbers below will be posted to the "Inflation" category on the GRA website, accessed through the "Data & Charts" link on the site's navigation bar.
Consumer Producer Import
Price Index Price Index Prices
Month/ ---------------------------------------
Year Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos*
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09/04 2.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.3% 7.8% 8.1%
08/04 2.7% 1.3% 3.4% -1.1% 7.0% 6.4%
07/04 3.0% 3.7% 4.0% 2.2% 5.6% 6.9%
06/04 3.2% 4.8% 4.0% 4.7% 5.7% 6.1%
05/04 3.0% 5.5% 4.9% 8.5% 6.9% 10.4%
04/04 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8%
03/04 1.7% 5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5%
02/04 1.7% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 11.2%
01/04 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 11.7%
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Data are seasonally adjusted. *Trailing
3-month compound annual rate of change.
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