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| Third-Quarter 2004 GDP (Gillespie Report #1) - Oct. 29, 2004 |
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Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department reported that real gross domestic product expanded at a 3.7% annual rate during the third quarter. This was well below the consensus forecast. WARNING: If you have been watching Tout TV, et al attempt to spin this into a "better-than-you-think" number, quickly do one of the following: (1) Deploy a tinfoil shield over your head, to protect your brain from the attempted infiltration by the PB ("perpetually bullish" rays, or preferably, (2) turn off your television set!
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In the next couple days or so, I'll publish a detailed breakdown of this morning's advance estimate of third-quarter GDP from the Commerce Department. The report's indicated 3.7% growth during the quarter was well below the consensus forecast of 4.3% -- even farther below the 5% estimate posted by Briefing.com.
Remember the beginning of this year, when lots of analysts thought 2004 GDP would grow well in excess of 5%, some even opining a number approaching 6%? Based on this morning's number, real gross domestic product at the end of this year's third quarter was 3.9% above 2003's third quarter -- $10883.4 billion versus $10472.8 billion.
And another item of note, to wit: achieving even the 3.7% rate of growth was materially aided by a significant reported decline in inflation during the third quarter!
Already, Wall Street bulls are spinning the results in a positive manner, with considerable help from CNBC and the other venues in the regular propaganda loop. Remember, however, that many of these "analysts" were the ones with the 5.5%+ GDP forecasts at the beginning of the year.
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