Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering October. Based on the report, the unemployment rate rose 0.1%, to 5.5%, while payroll employment expanded by a surprisingly large 337,000 jobs.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate were slightly worse than the consensus forecast, which had predicted no change. Results for payroll employment were far above the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain a of about 175,000 jobs. (Briefing.com was carrying an estimate of +200,000.)
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 337,000 during October. This compared with a gain of 88,000 in payroll employment during October of 2003.
Today's release contained substantial upward revisions to September and August payroll data, to +139,000 from +96,000, and to +198,000 from +128,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 674,000 jobs, compared to the 561,000 gain before the September and August adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment rose by 130,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
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Oct. 337 88 83 -361 30 422
Sep. 139 67 -47 -267 89 187
Aug. 198 -25 11 -141 -28 193
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Tot. 674 130 47 -769 91 802
=== === == === == ===
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For 2004 to date, payroll employment has grown by a reported 1,982,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 152,000 jobs during the first ten months of 2003.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose five cents in October, to $15.83. This represented a gain of approximately 0.3% from September's $15.78, a figure unrevised from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.6%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
10/04 5.5 6.0 337 88 15.83 15.43 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 139 67 15.78 15.41 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 198 -25 15.76 15.41 2.3%
07/04 5.5 6.2 85 -45 15.71 15.40 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 96 -14 15.66 15.34 2.1%
05/04 5.6 6.1 208 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.6 6.0 324 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.6 5.8 159 94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
12/03 5.7 6.0 8 -209 15.45 15.18 1.8%
11/03 5.9 5.9 83 -37 15.46 15.13 2.2%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 - 3.7 3.9 1.9 - -
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.5 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
09/04 189.7 185.1 2.5% 148.5 143.8 3.3%
08/04 189.4 184.5 2.7% 148.4 143.5 3.4%
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.5 142.8 4.0%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.4 142.7 4.0%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.8 141.9 4.9%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.7 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
11/03 184.6 181.4 1.8% 144.5 139.7 3.4%
10/03 184.9 181.2 2.0% 144.7 140.0 3.4%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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