John Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Gillespie Research Archives

Treasury Refunding/ISM Numbers   - Feb. 4, 2004


Earlier today, the Treasury announced the details of its February refunding operation.

The operation will consist of auctions next week of three new note issues -- three-, five- and 10-year maturities -- totaling $56 billion. These issues will refund roughly $26.6 billion of publically held debt maturing on 2/15, and raise about $29.4 billion of new cash.

In addition to the public holdings, Federal Reserve banks hold $4.2 billion of maturing issues for their own accounts. The Treasury may refund these through the sale of additional amounts of the new securities.

By comparison, the Treasury's February 2003 financing involved the issuance of $42.0 billion in notes. That operation refunded $21.6 billion of maturing issues, while raising $20.4 billion in new cash.


------------------------------------------------
   FEBRUARY 2004 TREASURY REFUNDING OPERATION*
------------------------------------------------
Auction  Amount                      02/04 When-
 Date    (Bils.)  Maturity  Coupon  Issued Yield
------------------------------------------------
 02/10    $24.0   02/15/07     @        NA#
 02/11    $16.0   02/15/09     @        NA#
 02/12    $16.0   02/15/14     @        NA#
           ----
          $56.0
           ==== 
------------------------------------------------
   *To refund $26.61 billion in maturing
   issues and raise $29.39 billion in new
   cash. @Coupon to be established through
   auction process. #At 12:00 PM (ET) on 2/4,
   the existing 3-year, 5-year and 10-year is-
   sues (2.625s of 11/15/06, 3.250s of 1/15/09
   and 4.250s of 11/15/13) were trading at re-
   spective yields of 2.19%, 3.12% and 4.13%.
------------------------------------------------


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management released its index covering the economy's non-manufacturing activity. Results were for January, and the index came in at a reading of 65.7. This compared with December results of 58.0, and was somewhat better than the consensus estimate.

However, as was the case with ISM's manufacturing index (released on Monday), today's number received a large boost from seasonal adjustment. I'll have more on this in a later update.
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