Summary
Yesterday, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit in September came in at $51.6 billion, down from August's revised $53.5 billion. For the first nine months of 2004, the trade deficit totaled $444.5 billion.
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Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit (goods and services) contracted to $51.6 billion during September, down from a revised $53.5 billion deficit in August. The August figure was originally reported at minus $54.0 billion. (For reference purposes, the 6/2004 deficit of $55.021 billion remains the monthly record.)
The September deficit was the result of imports that totaled $149.04 billion, and exports totaling $97.49 billion. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for August of $150.25 billion and $96.70 billion.
For this year's first nine months, the trade deficit totaled $444.545 billion, $73.5 billion or 19.8% above the same period last year. Following are this year's monthly deficits (in billions), along with the comparable figures for 2003. The latest revisions have been incorporated.
2004 2003
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January $ 45.768 $ 41.354
February $ 45.785 $ 40.375
March $ 47.052 $ 43.659
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1st Qtr. $138.605 $125.388
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April $ 48.194 $ 42.519
May $ 47.070 $ 40.827
June $ 55.021 $ 40.035
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2nd Qtr. $150.285 $123.381
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July $ 50.547 $ 40.814
August $ 53.549 $ 40.185
September $ 51.559 $ 41.251
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3rd Qtr. $155.655 $122.250
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9-Mo. Total $444.545 $371.019
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As the table below indicates, crude oil imports totaled just over $11.4 billion in September, equal to 7.7% of total imports. As a percentage of goods-only imports, which were $124.5 billion, the figure was 9.2%.
The $623 million decline in the value of September versus August oil imports was entirely the result of the reported drop of 27 million barrels (+8.2%) in September crude import volume. The average price per barrel in September rose by $1.25 (+3.4%) to $37.62, versus August's $36.37.
For this year's first nine months, oil imports totaled about $93.3 billion, or 7.2% of total imports. Of goods-only imports ($1079.3 billion) for this nine-month period, oil imports equaled 8.6%.
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2004
Sep. $ 149.044 0.304 $11.421 $37.62 7.7
Aug. 150.246 0.331 12.044 36.37 8.0
July 146.463 0.319 10.611 33.28 7.2
June 148.106 0.347 11.697 33.76 7.9
May 143.965 0.316 10.474 33.12 7.3
Apr. 142.509 0.312 9.668 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.272 0.332 10.162 30.64 7.1
Feb. 138.034 0.288 8.395 29.17 6.1
Jan. 134.373 0.309 8.835 28.55 6.6
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To
Date $1295.012 2.858 $93.307 $32.65 7.2
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2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services.
MEMO ITEM: Crude oil to goods-only imports:
1973 = 6.5%, Sep. 2004 = 9.2%.
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Employing the figures in the above tables, here's another way of assessing oil imports within the context of the nation's trade deficit. What would the deficit look like if the United States neither imported nor exported any crude oil?
In September, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $51.6 billion. In the absence of any US oil imports, this figure would have been $40.2 billion, or more than 22% lower. For 2004 to date through August, zero oil imports would have lowered the cumulative deficit by $93.3 billion, or by slightly less than 21%.
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