Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.6% during October. This exceeded the consensus forecast, as was the case with yesterday's report on October producer prices.
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Per today's report from the Labor Department, the CPI rose 0.6% during October, brining its year-over-year gain to 3.2%. Although the Y/Y rise through October is substantially higher than last month's 2.5%, 3.2% remains a result with which few people I know (as in "no people I know") personally identify.
As was also the case with yesterday's report on producer prices, the sharp rise in energy costs that eluded reported data before the election began showing up in today's CPI release. According to the Labor Department, energy prices during October rose 4.2%, versus a reported decline of 0.4% during September.
Elsewhere, the transportation component rose a reported 2.3%, food & beverages were up 0.5%, medical care rose 0.4%, while the housing and apparel components were each up 0.2%.
During the three months ended October, the CPI rose at a 3.4% annual rate. This represented a sharp acceleration from the three months ended September, when the increase was at an annual rate of 0.6%.
For 2004's first ten months, the CPI was up 3.2%, compared with a 1.8% increase during the first ten months of 2003 (nonannualized results).
Excluding food and energy (the so-called "core" rate, of particular interest to those who do not eat, heat or drive), October's year-over-year gain was 2.0%, the same as in September. However, there's been some upward drift here in recent months. For the three months ended October, core CPI was up at a 2.3% annual rate, versus a 1.6% rate for the three months ended July.
The Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and import prices are three of the four measures we employ in our "Inflation Watch" chart appearing on the GRA website's home page. We will be updating this graph shortly to reflect the latest numbers, now that the October data have been reported for all four proxies.
The updated numbers below will be posted to the "Inflation" category on the GRA website, accessed through the "Data & Charts" link on the site's navigation bar.
Consumer Producer Import
Price Index Price Index Prices
Month/ ---------------------------------------
Year Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos*
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10/04 3.2% 3.4% 4.4% 6.9% 9.7% 14.4%
09/04 2.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.5% 8.1% 9.4%
08/04 2.7% 1.3% 3.4% -0.5% 7.0% 6.4%
07/04 3.0% 3.7% 4.0% 2.2% 5.6% 6.9%
06/04 3.2% 4.8% 3.9% 4.4% 5.7% 6.1%
05/04 3.0% 5.5% 4.7% 7.9% 6.9% 10.4%
04/04 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8%
03/04 1.7% 5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5%
02/04 1.7% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 11.2%
01/04 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 11.7%
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Data are seasonally adjusted. *Trailing
3-month compound annual rate of change.
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