Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its second or "preliminary" estimate of third-quarter 2004 gross domestic product. According to Commerce, GDP rose at a 3.9% rate during the quarter, slightly better than the original estimate of 3.7%, released on 10/29.
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There were no major surprises in today's GDP release. I plan on publishing some thoughts on the numbers in a later missive, probably on Thursday. In the meantime, the following table contains the data relating to this morning's release. (This table has been posted to the "Data & Charts section of the GRA website.)
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PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF THIRD-QUARTER 2004
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Released
11/30 -- Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars
at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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3Q2004 2Q2004 Change/
Prel. Final Impact
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Real GDP 10889.7 10784.7 3.9%
Inventory Change 35.9 61.1 -$25.2
Real Final Sales 10852.0 10722.3 4.9%
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Components of GDP
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Personal Consumption 7666.8 7572.4 5.1%
Nonres. Fixed Investment* 1245.3 1207.9 13.0%
Resid. Fixed Investment 566.1 563.6 1.8%
Net Exports -588.0 -580.3 -$7.7
Government Purchases* 1952.4 1946.5 1.2%
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Implicit Price Deflators:
Gross Domestic Product 1.3% 3.2% --
Gross Domestic Purchases 1.8% 3.5% --
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*MEMO ITEMS
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Government Purchases
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Total 1952.4 1946.5 1.2%
State & Local 1225.9 1228.3 -0.8%
Federal 726.4 718.1 4.7%
National Defense 491.2 479.9 9.8%
Nonresidential
Fixed Investment
----------------
Total 1245.3 1207.9 13.0%
Structures 241.5 241.7 -0.3%
Equipment & Software 1015.0 975.5 17.2%
Info. Processing
Equip. & Software 575.9 565.4 7.6%
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MAJOR GDP COMPONENTS -- CHANGES BETWEEN
"PRELIMINARY" AND "ADVANCE" 3Q2004 ESTIMATES
(Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars at
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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3Q2004 3Q2004
Prel. Advance Change
----------------------------
Real GDP 10889.7 10883.4 6.3
Inventory Change 35.9 48.1 -12.2
Real Final Sales 10852.0 10833.9 18.1
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Personal Consumption 7666.8 7658.9 7.9
Nones. Fixed Invest. 1245.3 1241.7 3.6
Resid. Fixed Invest. 566.1 567.9 -1.8
Net Exports -588.0 -598.0 10.0
Govt. Purchases 1952.4 1953.1 -0.7
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REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES, 2000 CHAINED DOLLARS)
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Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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2004 4.5% 3.3% 3.9% --
2003 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
2002 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
2001 -0.5% 1.2% -1.4% 1.6%
2000 1.0% 6.4% -0.5% 2.1%
1999 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 7.3%
1998 4.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.2%
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MEMO ITEM: Annual change in real GDP
before and after the "comprehensive
revision" published by the Commerce
Department on 12/10/03.
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1929-2002 1959-1992 1992-2002
---------------------------------
After 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
Before 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
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