Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering November. Based on the report, the unemployment rate fell 0.1%, to 5.4%, while payroll employment expanded by a less-than-expected 112,000 jobs, the weakest growth since July.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate were right on the consensus forecast, which was predicting a 0.1% decline. However, results for payroll employment were well below the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain of about 200,000 jobs. (Briefing.com was carrying an estimate of +180,000.)
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 112,000 during November. This compared with a gain of 83,000 in payroll employment during November of 2003.
Today's release contained downward revisions to both October and September payroll data, to +303,000 from +337,000, and to +119,000 from +139,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 534,000 jobs, versus the 588,000 gain before the October and September adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment rose by 238,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
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Nov. 112 83 -37 -332 183 295
Oct. 303 88 83 -361 30 422
Sep. 119 67 -47 -267 89 187
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Tot. 534 238 -1 -960 302 904
=== === == === === ===
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For 2004 to date, payroll employment has grown by a reported 2,040,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 69,000 jobs during the first eleven months of 2003.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose one cent in November, to $15.83. This represented a gain of less than 0.1% from October's $15.82, the latter revised down one penny from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.4%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
11/04 5.4 5.9 112 83 15.83 15.46 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 303 88 15.82 15.43 2.5%
09/04 5.4 6.1 119 67 15.78 15.41 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 198 -25 15.76 15.41 2.3%
07/04 5.5 6.2 85 -45 15.71 15.40 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 96 -14 15.66 15.34 2.1%
05/04 5.6 6.1 208 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.6 6.0 324 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.6 5.8 159 94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
12/03 5.7 6.0 8 -209 15.45 15.18 1.8%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 - 3.7 3.9 1.9 - -
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.5 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
10/04 190.9 184.9 3.2% 151.0 144.7 4.4%
09/04 189.7 185.1 2.5% 148.5 143.8 3.3%
08/04 189.4 184.5 2.7% 148.4 143.5 3.4%
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.5 142.8 4.0%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.3 142.7 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.6 141.9 4.7%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.7 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
11/03 184.6 181.4 1.8% 144.5 139.7 3.4%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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