On 11/27, I published a missive entitled, "Dollar Weakness and Its Threat to the US Financial Markets." The piece evoked a great deal of interest. It employed numbers mostly from the Federal Reserve's flow-of-funds release containing data through the second quarter, the most recent then available.
This afternoon, the Fed released its latest FOF data current through the third quarter. I am passing along tables containing some of the more important foreign numbers without comment, in order to get it out as quickly as possible. A discussion will follow soon, probably early next week.
________
Table 1.
------------------------------------------
FOREIGNERS' U.S. FINANCIAL
ASSETS/LIABILITIES
(Billions of Dollars, Latest Data
Released 12/09/04 Through 09/30/04)
------------------------------------------
Total Total
Financial Financial
Assets Liabilities Difference
------------------------------------------
2004
09/30 8924.9 4409.5 4515.4
06/30 8804.0 4235.8 4568.2
03/31 8644.4 4144.7 4499.7
------------------------------------------
As of
12/31
-----
2003 8228.7 4050.1 4178.6
2002 7441.1 3981.8 3459.3
2001 6965.8 3650.1 3315.7
2000 6584.9 3490.2 3094.7
=======================================
1990 1998.4 1388.8 609.6
---------------------------------------
1985 967.4 869.7 +97.7
1984 805.3 841.6 -36.3
---------------------------------------
1980 494.2 666.4 -172.2
1970 104.8 140.5 -35.7
1960 38.9 63.5 -24.6
1950 17.4 31.4 -14.0
=======================================
1945 16.3 14.9 1.4
------------------------------------------
Source: "Flow of Funds Accounts
of the United States" (Federal
Reserve "Z.1" release).
------------------------------------------
Table 2.
-----------------------------------------------
FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF US FINANCIAL ASSETS
AS OF 09/30/04 (Billions of Dollars
-- Latest Data Released 12/09/04)
-----------------------------------------------
% of
Total
Total US Financial Assets -----
Held by Foreign Investors 8924.9 100.0
===============================================
Credit-Market Instruments# 4430.7 49.7
------ ----
Open Market Paper 115.3
US Govt. Securities 2616.7
Treasury 1856.1
Agency 760.6
US Corporate Bonds 1698.7
-----------------------------------------------
US Corporate Equities 1670.3 18.7
------ ----
Credit-Market Instr.
+ Corp. Equities 6101.0 68.4
====== ====
-----------------------------------------------
Detail of US Government Securities
-----------------------------------------------
Treasury 1856.1
Official 1162.1
Private 694.0
Agency 760.6
Official 208.7
Private 551.9
------
2616.7
======
-----------------------------------------------
Source: "Flow of Funds Accounts of the United
States" (Federal Reserve "Z.1" release.) #For
the purpose of this analysis, the category
"Loans to US Corporate Business" has been ex-
cluded. As of 9/30/04, this category had tot-
al outstandings of $121.7 billion.
-----------------------------------------------
Table 3.
----------------------------------------
15 LARGEST FOREIGN HOLDERS OF U.S.
TREASURY DEBT AS OF 09/30/04, VS. THE
SAME COUNTRIES' HOLDINGS AS OF 06/30/04
(Amounts in Billions of $s)*
----------------------------------------
09/30 06/30
Country 2004 2004
----------------------------------------
( 1) Japan 720.4 689.3
( 2) Mainland China 174.4 164.9
( 3) United Kingdom 134.6 126.5
( 4) Caribbean Bank-
ing Centers@ 100.3 85.8
( 5) Korea 66.6 60.5
( 6) Taiwan 57.4 57.7
( 7) Germany 51.0 47.7
( 8) Hong Kong 49.5 52.4
( 9) Switzerland 48.5 49.6
(10) OPEC 43.1 43.7
(11) Mexico 33.9 38.6
(12) Canada 33.8 30.6
(13) Luxembourg 26.7 26.4
(14) Singapore 24.1 27.0
(15) Ireland 19.4 16.7
----------------------------------------
Total 1583.7 1517.4
----------------------------------------
*Estimated end-of-period foreign
holdings of US Treasury marketable
and nonmarketable bills, bonds and
notes based on Treasury Foreign
Portfolio Investment Survey bench-
marks and on monthly data reported
under the Treasury International
Capital (TIC) reporting system.
Totals comprise both official and
private holdings. Data subject to
revision. @Includes Bahamas, Ber-
muda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands
Antilles, and Panama.
----------------------------------------
Table 4.
-----------------------------------------------------
NET ACQUISITION OF U.S. FINANCIAL ASSETS
BY FOREIGN INVESTORS -- 2000 TO 9/30/04*
(Billions of Dollar)
-----------------------------------------------------
Years Ended December 31
--------------------------
2000 2001 2002 2003 3Q04*
----- ----- ----- ----- ------
Net Acquisition
of Finan. Assets 963.0 657.7 741.3 783.0 1111.2
================= ===== ===== ===== ===== ======
Credit-Market
Instruments
----------------
Open-Mkt. Paper 4.3 -2.6 10.3 9.9 -0.8
Treasury Sec. -70.5 10.5 138.9 285.1 204.1
Agency Sec. 141.9 103.7 112.5 11.5 165.2
Corp. Bonds 168.4 195.4 151.0 232.6 370.9
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Subtotal 244.1 305.4 412.7 539.1 739.4
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Corp. Equities 193.6 121.5 54.2 36.9 22.3
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Total 437.7 426.9 466.9 576.0 761.7
===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Above/Net Acquis. 45.5% 64.9% 63.0% 73.6% 68.5%
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
MEMO ITEM#
----------------
Loans to Corp-
orate Business -2.2 -1.6 10.1 -0.8 -26.0
-----------------------------------------------------
DISTRIBUTION OF TREASURY/AGENCY ACQUISITIONS
-----------------------------------------------------
Treasury Securities
-----------------------------------------------------
Official -5.2 33.7 60.5 169.7 125.1
Private -65.3 -23.2 78.5 115.4 79.0
---- ---- ----- ----- -----
Total -70.5 10.5 139.0 285.1 204.1
-----------------------------------------------------
Agency Securities
-----------------------------------------------------
Official 40.9 20.9 28.6 24.9 38.2
Private 101.0 82.8 83.9 -13.4 126.9
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Total 141.9 103.7 112.5 11.5 165.1
-----------------------------------------------------
*Source: "Flow of Funds Accounts of the United
States" (Federal Reserve "Z.1" release). #Al-
though "Loans to Corporate Business" are classi-
fied by the Fed as "Capital Market Instruments,"
they have been excluded for the purpose of this
examination, since they lack the liquidity of
the other categories. 3Q04 figures are at
seasonally adjusted annual rates.
-----------------------------------------------------
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