Summary
Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit in October came in at a record $55.5 billion, up from September's revised red ink of $50.9 billion. For the first ten months of 2004, the trade deficit totaled $500.5 billion.
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In its release today of international trade figures, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit (goods and services) rose to a record $55.5 billion during October, up sharply from a revised $50.9 billion deficit in September. The September deficit was originally reported at $51.6 billion.
(For reference purposes, the 6/2004 deficit of $55.341 billion was the prior monthly record. It is possible it could emerge as the record month again, were October's figure to undergo sufficient downward revision.)
The October deficit was the result of imports that totaled $153.53 billion, and exports totaling $98.06 billion. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for September of $148.42 billion and $97.49 billion.
For this year's first ten months, the trade deficit totaled $500.5 billion, $88.0 billion or 21.3% above the same period last year. Following are this year's monthly deficits (in billions), along with the comparable figures for 2003. The latest revisions have been incorporated.
2004 2003
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October $ 55.464 $ 41.490
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September $ 50.925 $ 41.251
August $ 53.861 $ 40.185
July $ 50.555 $ 40.814
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3rd Qtr. $155.341 $122.250
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June $ 55.341 $ 40.035
May $ 47.310 $ 40.827
April $ 48.433 $ 42.519
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2nd Qtr. $151.084 $123.381
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March $ 47.052 $ 43.659
February $ 45.785 $ 40.375
January $ 45.768 $ 41.354
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1st Qtr. $138.605 $125.388
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10-Mo. Total $500.494 $412.509
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As the table below indicates, crude oil imports totaled just under $13.2 billion in October. This was a record and up sharply from September's $11.4 billion. October's crude oil imports were equal to 8.6% of total imports, and as a percentage of goods-only imports, which were $129.0 billion, the figure was 10.2%.
(NOTE: The above calculations take license with mixing seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data, but for the purpose at hand, the distortion in not significant.)
The $1.8 billion spike in the value of October versus September crude oil imports was the result of a reported increase of 12 million barrels (+3.9%) in October import volume, and a jump in the average price per barrel in October of $4.17 (+11.1%), to $41.79, versus September's $37.62.
For this year's first ten months, crude oil imports totaled about $106.5 billion or 7.4% of total imports. Of goods-only imports ($1208.0 billion) for this ten-month period, crude imports equaled 8.8%. (Again, these calculations mix seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data).
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2004
Oct. $ 153.526 0.316 $ 13.198 $41.79 8.6
Sep. 148.418 0.304 11.421 37.62 7.7
Aug. 150.095 0.331 12.044 36.37 8.0
July 146.448 0.319 10.611 33.28 7.2
June 148.281 0.347 11.697 33.76 7.9
May 144.133 0.316 10.474 33.12 7.3
Apr. 142.714 0.312 9.668 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.272 0.332 10.162 30.64 7.1
Feb. 138.034 0.288 8.395 29.17 6.1
Jan. 134.373 0.309 8.835 28.55 6.6
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To
Date $1448.294 3.174 $106.505 $33.56 7.4
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2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services,
seasonally adjusted. MEMO ITEM: Crude oil
to goods-only imports: 1973 = 6.5%, Oct.
2004 = 10.2%.
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Employing the figures in the above tables, here's another way of assessing oil imports within the context of the nation's trade deficit (in approximate terms, because of the mixing of adjusted and unadjusted data). What would the deficit look like if the United States neither imported nor exported any crude oil?
In October, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $55.5 billion. With no US crude oil imports, this figure would have been $42.3 billion, or 23.8% lower. For 2004 to date through October, zero oil imports would have lowered the cumulative deficit by $106.5 billion, or by about 21.3%.
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