Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% during November, which was right on the consensus forecast. Yesterday, the Treasury released the "Financial Report of the United States Government," covering fiscal year 2004. The document indicated that the nation ran an incredible $11.1 trillion deficit last fiscal year, when generally accepted accounting principles are used to do the calculations.
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November Consumer Prices
Per today's report from the Labor Department, the CPI rose 0.2% during November, bringing its year-over-year gain to 3.6%. Although the Y/Y rise through November is higher than last month's 3.2%, 3.6% remains a number with which few people I know (as in "no people I know") personally identify.
According to today's report, the CPI's education and communication component rose 0.4% in November, housing was up 0.3%, energy, food & beverages, and medical care all rose 0.2%, while apparel and recreation were each up 0.1%. (The modest gain reported for energy follows a 4.2% rise the prior month.) In November, the transportation component fell 0.1%, after having registered a sharp 2.3% gain in October.
During the three months ended November, the CPI rose at a 3.9% annual rate, compared to a 3.4% rate for the three months ended October, and to a 0.6% rate for the three months ended September.
During 2004's first eleven months, the CPI was up 3.4%, versus a 1.7% increase during the first eleven months of 2003 (nonannualized results).
Excluding food and energy (the so-called "core" rate, of particular interest to those who do not eat, heat or drive), November's year-over-year gain was 2.2%, up from a 2.0% Y/Y gain in October. There has been a discernable upward drift in recent months. For instance, for the three months ended November, core CPI rose at a 2.7% annual rate, versus a 2.3% rate for the three months ended October, a 1.8% rate for the three months ended September, and a 1.0% rate for the three-month period ended August.
The Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and import prices are three of the four measures we employ in our "Inflation Watch" chart appearing on the GRA website's home page. We will be updating this graph shortly to reflect the latest numbers, now that November data have been reported for all four proxies.
The updated numbers below will be posted to the "Inflation" category on the GRA website, accessed through the "Data & Charts" link on the site's navigation bar.
Consumer Producer Import
Price Index Price Index Prices
Month/ ---------------------------------------
Year Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos*
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11/04 3.6% 3.9% 5.0% 9.5% 9.5% 9.6%
10/04 3.2% 3.4% 4.4% 7.5% 9.9% 15.3%
09/04 2.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.5% 8.2% 9.8%
08/04 2.7% 1.3% 3.4% -0.5% 7.1% 6.8%
07/04 3.0% 3.7% 3.9% 2.2% 5.6% 6.9%
06/04 3.2% 4.8% 3.9% 4.4% 5.7% 6.1%
05/04 3.0% 5.5% 4.7% 7.9% 6.9% 10.4%
04/04 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8%
03/04 1.7% 5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5%
02/04 1.7% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 11.2%
01/04 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 11.7%
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Data are seasonally adjusted. *Trailing
3-month compound annual rate of change.
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The US $11.1 Trillion FY-2004 Deficit!
Yesterday, the Treasury released the "Financial Report of the United States Government," covering fiscal year 2004. It indicated that when generally accepted accounting principles are employed to do the calculations, the US ran an incredible $11.1 trillion deficit last fiscal year. This was equal to 96% of fiscal 2004's gross domestic product!
John Williams' has posted an "Alert" regarding this release on his website, although the piece is available only to "Behind the Government's Numbers" subscribers. If you have not perused John's site yet, this a great time to do so. John Williams' Behind the Government's Numbers.
Remember, too, that GRA subscribers receive a significant discount when they subscribe to John's work, which already is very attractively priced, considering the its scope and highly proprietary nature.
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