Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its third or "final" estimate of third-quarter 2004 gross domestic product. According to Commerce, GDP rose at a 4.0% rate during the quarter, slightly better than the preliminary estimate of 3.9%, released on 11/30.
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There were no major surprises in today's GDP release, and I plan on publishing additional thoughts about the numbers in a later missive. In the meantime, the following table contains the data relating to this morning's release. (This table has been posted to the "Data & Charts section of the GRA website.)
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FINAL ESTIMATE OF THIRD-QUARTER 2004
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Released
12/22 -- Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars
at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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3Q2004 2Q2004 Change/
Final Final Impact
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Real GDP 10891.0 10784.7 4.0%
Inventory Change 34.5 61.1 -$26.6
Real Final Sales 10854.7 10722.3 5.0%
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Components of GDP
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Personal Consumption 7667.8 7572.4 5.1%
Nonres. Fixed Investment* 1245.3 1207.9 13.0%
Resid. Fixed Investment 565.9 563.6 1.6%
Net Exports -583.2 -580.3 -$2.9
Government Purchases* 1949.9 1946.5 0.7%
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Implicit Price Deflators:
Gross Domestic Product 1.4% 3.2% --
Gross Domestic Purchases 2.0% 3.5% --
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*MEMO ITEMS
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Government Purchases
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Total 1949.9 1946.5 0.7%
State & Local 1223.2 1228.3 -1.7%
Federal 726.6 718.1 4.8%
National Defense 491.5 479.9 10.0%
Nonresidential
Fixed Investment
----------------
Total 1245.3 1207.9 13.0%
Structures 241.0 241.7 -1.2%
Equipment & Software 1015.6 975.5 17.5%
Info. Processing
Equip. & Software 575.6 565.4 7.4%
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MAJOR GDP COMPONENTS -- CHANGES BETWEEN
"FINAL" AND "PRELIMINARY" 3Q2004 ESTIMATES
(Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars at
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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3Q2004 3Q2004
Final Prel. Change
----------------------------
Real GDP 10891.0 10889.7 1.3
Inventory Change 34.5 35.9 -1.4
Real Final Sales 10854.7 10852.0 2.7
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Personal Consumption 7667.8 7666.8 1.0
Nones. Fixed Invest. 1245.3 1245.3 0.0
Resid. Fixed Invest. 565.9 566.1 -0.2
Net Exports -583.2 -588.0 4.8
Govt. Purchases 1949.9 1952.4 -2.5
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REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES, 2000 CHAINED DOLLARS)
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Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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2004 4.5% 3.3% 4.0% --
2003 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
2002 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
2001 -0.5% 1.2% -1.4% 1.6%
2000 1.0% 6.4% -0.5% 2.1%
1999 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 7.3%
1998 4.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.2%
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MEMO ITEM: Annual change in real GDP
before and after the "comprehensive
revision" published by the Commerce
Department on 12/10/03.
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1929-2002 1959-1992 1992-2002
---------------------------------
After 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
Before 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
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