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| Stocks: 2005, Day Four, Plus Employment Considerations - Jan. 7, 2005 |
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Summary
For stocks, day four of 2005 was far less traumatic than the three days preceding it. Day five could be affected by the employment report covering December, due out later this morning.
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Stocks took a breather from the downside yesterday. NYSE breadth swung to being decently positive, although overall price gains were subdued. My seven-measure tracking group rose an average 0.2%, pulled down a bit by a 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ 100. The remaining six components were in the black, with gains running in a range of 0.4% for the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and
Wilshire 5000, to 0.2% for the DJIA.
A major monthly market event occurs later this morning (8:00 AM ET), when the Labor Department releases employment data covering December. The consensus forecast is for a gain of 175,000 jobs (payroll survey), with no change in the unemployment rate (currently at 5.4%).
It's possible there could be a surprise or two, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics will incorporate some revisions to prior data, per the following statement from November's employment report.
"In accordance with usual practice, the release of December data in January will incorporate annual revisions in seasonally adjusted unemployment and other labor force series from the household survey. Seasonally adjusted data for the most recent 5 years are subject to revision."
If the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") is any indication of attitudes towards the 2005 slide in stock prices so far, people are pretty sanguine. The VIX finished 2004 at 13.29, versus yesterday's close of 13.58.
My own instincts, coupled with some "old-days" technical indicators, suggest that the stock market's early 2005 sinking spell definitely has not run its course!
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