Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering December. Based on the report, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4%, while payroll employment expanded by 157,000 jobs, modestly lower than the consensus prediction.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate were right on the consensus forecast, which was predicting no change. Results for payroll employment were modestly below the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain of about 175,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 157,000 during December. This compared with a gain of 8,000 in payroll employment during December of 2003.
Today's release contained upward revisions to both November and October payroll data, to +137,000 from +112,000, and to +312,000 from +303,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 606,000 jobs, versus the 572,000 gain before the November and October adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003, payroll employment rose by 179,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
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Dec. 157 8 -209 -212 124 294
Nov. 137 83 -37 -332 183 295
Oct. 312 88 83 -361 30 422
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Tot. 606 179 -163 -905 337 1011
=== === === === === ====
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For all of 2004, payroll employment grew by a reported 2,231,000 jobs. This compares with a decline of 61,000 jobs during 2003.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose two cents in December, to $15.86. This represented a gain of about 0.1% from November's $15.84, the latter revised up one cent from last month's report. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.7%.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
12/04 5.4 5.7 157 8 15.86 15.45 2.7%
11/04 5.4 5.9 137 83 15.84 15.46 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 312 88 15.82 15.43 2.5%
09/04 5.4 6.1 119 67 15.78 15.41 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 198 -25 15.76 15.41 2.3%
07/04 5.5 6.2 85 -45 15.71 15.40 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 96 -14 15.66 15.34 2.1%
05/04 5.6 6.1 208 -28 15.63 15.31 2.1%
04/04 5.5 6.0 324 -20 15.59 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 353 -110 15.55 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 83 -159 15.52 15.27 1.6%
01/04 5.7 5.8 159 94 15.49 15.18 2.0%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 - 3.7 3.9 1.8 - -
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.5 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 151.8 144.5 5.0%
10/04 190.9 184.9 3.2% 151.0 144.7 4.4%
09/04 189.7 185.1 2.5% 148.5 143.8 3.3%
08/04 189.4 184.5 2.7% 148.4 143.5 3.4%
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.3 142.7 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.6 141.9 4.7%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.7 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
12/03 184.9 181.6 1.8% 144.8 139.3 3.9%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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