Summary
Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit in November came in at a record $60.3 billion, up $4.3 billion from October's revised shortfall of $56.0 billion. During 2004's first eleven months, the deficit totaled $560.8 billion.
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In its release today of international trade figures, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit (goods and services) rose to a record $60.3 billion during November, up sharply from a revised $56.0 billion deficit in October. October's red ink was originally reported at $55.5 billion, which was a record when reported.
The November deficit was the result of imports that totaled $155.85 billion, and exports totaling $95.55 billion. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for October of $153.80 billion and $97.80 billion. Thus, in comparing November to October, imports rose by almost $2.1 billion or 1.3%, while exports fell upwards of $2.3 billion or a little more than 2.3%.
For 2004's first eleven months, the trade deficit totaled $560.8 billion, $108.3 billion or 23.9% above the same period during 2003. Following are last year's monthly deficits (in billions), along with the comparable figures for 2003. The latest revisions have been incorporated.
2004 2003
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November $ 60.297 $ 39.994
October $ 55.464 $ 41.490
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$115.761 $ 81.484
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September $ 50.925 $ 41.251
August $ 53.861 $ 40.185
July $ 50.555 $ 40.814
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3rd Qtr. $155.341 $122.250
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June $ 55.341 $ 40.035
May $ 47.310 $ 40.827
April $ 48.433 $ 42.519
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2nd Qtr. $151.084 $123.381
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March $ 47.052 $ 43.659
February $ 45.785 $ 40.375
January $ 45.768 $ 41.354
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1st Qtr. $138.605 $125.388
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11-Mo. Total $560.791 $452.503
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As the table appearing below indicates, crude oil imports totaled $13.44 billion in November. This was a record, up modestly from October's $13.20 billion. This rise came despite a 1.5% decline during November in the average price per barrel, to $41.15 from $41.79.
Crude oil imports were equal to 8.6% of total imports in November, the same as in October. In November, crude imports equaled 10.3% of goods-only imports, which totaled $130.8 billion.
(NOTE: The above calculations take license with mixing seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data. For the purpose at hand, the distortion in not significant.)
During 2004's first eleven months, crude oil imports totaled $119.9 billion or almost 9.0% of total imports. Of goods-only imports ($1339.9 billion) for this eleven-month period, crude imports equaled 8.8%. (Again, these calculations mix seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data).
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2004
Nov. $ 155.848 0.326 $ 13.435 $41.15 8.6
Oct. 153.799 0.316 13.198 41.79 8.6
Sep. 148.418 0.304 11.421 37.62 7.7
Aug. 150.095 0.331 12.044 36.37 8.0
July 146.448 0.319 10.611 33.28 7.2
June 148.281 0.347 11.697 33.76 7.9
May 144.133 0.316 10.474 33.12 7.3
Apr. 142.714 0.312 9.668 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.272 0.332 10.162 30.64 7.1
Feb. 138.034 0.288 8.395 29.17 6.1
Jan. 134.373 0.309 8.835 28.55 6.6
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2004
To
Date $1604.415 3.500 $119.940 $34.27 7.5
===============================================
2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services,
seasonally adjusted. MEMO ITEM: Crude oil
to goods-only imports: 1973 = 6.5%, Nov.
2004 = 10.3%.
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Employing the figures in the above tables, here's another way of assessing oil imports within the context of the nation's trade deficit (in approximate terms, because of the mixing of adjusted and unadjusted data). What would the deficit look like if the United States neither imported nor exported any crude oil?
In November, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $60.3 billion. With no US crude oil imports, the figure would have been $46.9 billion, or 22.2% lower. For 2004 to date through November, zero oil imports would have lowered the cumulative deficit by $119.9 billion, or by about 21.4%.
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U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED COUNTRIES/REGIONS
(Ranked in Order of 11/2004 Size; Amounts Are in
Billions of $s and Are Not Seasonally Adjusted)
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2004 2003
Country/ ------------------- -------------------
Region November Cumulative November Cumulative
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China 16.631 147.714 10.837 114.185
Canada 7.298 62.284 7.113 47.151
Japan 7.286 68.345 5.706 60.266
OPEC 6.937 66.051 3.900 46.496
Germany 4.237 41.609 3.576 35.149
Mexico 3.894 41.669 3.071 37.535
Korea 2.276 18.488 1.197 11.741
Taiwan 1.419 12.249 1.099 13.301
Italy 1.387 15.681 1.196 13.499
UK 1.219 9.163 0.624 7.873
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