Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that consumer prices fell 0.1% during December, led by a 1.8% (nonannualized) decline in energy prices. The consensus forecast had predicted no change. For the 12 months ended December, the Consumer Price Index was up 3.3%.
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Per today's report from the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% during December, resulting in a 12-month gain of 3.3%. Last year's 3.3% change in the CPI was a number with which few people I know personally identify!
According to today's release, the CPI's energy component dropped 1.8% in December. Elsewhere, medical care was up 0.3%, and housing rose 0.2%. Education & communications showed no change, while recreation, food & beverages, apparel, and transportation registered respective declines of 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.9%.
During the three months ended December, the CPI rose at a 3.0% annual rate, compared to a 3.9% rate for the three months ended November.
Excluding food and energy (the so-called "core" rate, of particular interest to folks who do not eat, heat or drive), December's year-over-year gain was 2.3%, versus respective 12-month gains of 2.2% and 2.0% in November and October.
The Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and import prices are three of the four measures we employ in our "Inflation Watch" chart appearing on the GRA website's home page. We will be updating this graph to reflect the latest numbers, now that December data have been reported for all four proxies.
The updated numbers below will be posted to the "Inflation" category on the GRA website, accessed through the "Data & Charts" link on the site's navigation bar.
Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index
-- Y/Y Change -- Y/Y Change
-------------------- --------------------
Excl. Food Excl. Food
Year All Items & Energy All Items & Energy
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2004 3.3% 2.3% 4.1% 2.2%
2003 1.8% 1.1% 3.9% 1.0%
2002 2.5% 2.0% 1.2% -0.5%
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Consumer Producer Import
Price Index Price Index Prices
Month/ ---------------------------------------
Year Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos* Y/Y L3Mos*
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12/04 3.3% 3.0% 4.1% 6.3% 6.9% 0.4%
11/04 3.6% 3.9% 5.0% 9.5% 9.1% 7.9%
10/04 3.2% 3.4% 4.4% 7.5% 9.9% 15.3%
09/04 2.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.5% 8.2% 9.8%
08/04 2.7% 1.3% 3.4% -0.5% 7.1% 6.8%
07/04 3.0% 3.7% 3.9% 2.2% 5.6% 6.9%
06/04 3.2% 4.8% 3.9% 4.4% 5.7% 6.1%
05/04 3.0% 5.5% 4.7% 7.9% 6.9% 10.4%
04/04 2.3% 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8%
03/04 1.7% 5.1% 1.5% 5.4% 1.1% 11.5%
02/04 1.7% 3.7% 2.1% 3.6% 0.9% 11.2%
01/04 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 11.7%
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Data are seasonally adjusted. *Trailing
3-month compound annual rate of change.
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