Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its first or "advance" estimate of fourth-quarter 2004 gross domestic product. According to Commerce, GDP rose at a 3.1% annual rate during the quarter, which compares with a 4.0% rate for last year's September quarter. Measured on a 4Q2004 over 4Q2003 basis, gross domestic product rose 3.7% during 2004.
_____
I plan to publish additional comments about this morning's numbers in a later missive. In the meantime, the following tables contain the data relating to today's release. (These tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts section of the GRA website.)
Highlights (4Q2004, SAAR)
-----------------------------
Nominal GDP $11967.0 Billion
Real GDP $10975.7 Billion
Change (Q/Q)
------------
Nominal 5.2%
Real 3.1%
GDP Defl. 2.0%
-----------------------------------------------
NOMINAL AND REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(SAAR, 2000 Chained Dollars); RATIO OF REAL
TO NOMINAL; IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR
GDP AND FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PURCHASES
------------------------------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
------------------------------------------------
2004 Nominal 7.4% 6.1% 5.5% 5.2%
Real 4.5% 2.8% 4.0% 3.1%
R/N 0.61 0.46 0.73 0.60
===========================================
GDP Def. 2.7% 3.2% 1.4% 2.0%
PCE Def. 3.4% 3.5% 2.0% 2.7%
------------------------------------------------
2003 Nominal 4.9% 5.3% 8.8% 5.7%
Real 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
R/N 0.39 0.77 0.84 0.74
===========================================
GDP Def. 2.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%
PCE Def. 3.9% 0.4% 1.6% 1.2%
------------------------------------------------
2002 Nominal 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7%
Real 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
R/N 0.77 0.57 0.67 0.26
===========================================
GDP Def. 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 2.0%
PCE Def. 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1.9%
------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF FOURTH-QUARTER 2004
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Released
1/28/04 -- Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars
at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
--------------------------------------------------
4Q2004 3Q2004 Change/
Advance Final Impact
------------------------
Real GDP 10975.7 10891.0 3.1%
Inventory Change 45.8 34.5 +$11.3
Real Final Sales 10928.1 10854.7 2.7%
--------------------------------------------------
Components of GDP
-----------------
Personal Consumption 7755.4 7667.8 4.6%
Nonres. Fixed Investment* 1276.3 1245.3 10.3%
Resid. Fixed Investment 566.3 565.9 0.3%
Net Exports -631.9 -583.2 -$48.7
Government Purchases* 1954.5 1949.9 0.9%
--------------------------------------------------
Implicit Price Deflators:
Gross Domestic Product 2.0% 1.4% --
Gross Domestic Purchases 2.7% 2.0% --
--------------------------------------------------
*MEMO ITEMS
-----------
Government Purchases
--------------------
Total 1954.5 1949.9 0.9%
State & Local 1224.9 1223.2 0.6%
Federal 729.5 726.6 1.6%
National Defense 491.5 491.5 0.0%
Nonresidential
Fixed Investment
----------------
Total 1276.3 1245.3 10.3%
Structures 238.5 241.0 -4.1%
Equipment & Software 1051.5 1015.6 14.9%
Info. Processing
Equip. & Software 599.4 575.6 17.6%
---------------------------------------------------
MAJOR GDP COMPONENTS -- CHANGES BETWEEN
"ADVANCE" 4Q2004 AND "FINAL" 3Q2004 ESTIMATES
(Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars at
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
---------------------------------------------------
4Q2004 3Q2004
Advance Final Change
----------------------------
Real GDP 10975.7 10891.0 84.7
Inventory Change 45.8 34.5 11.3
Real Final Sales 10928.1 10854.7 73.4
---------------------------------------------------
Personal Consumption 7755.4 7667.8 87.6
Nones. Fixed Invest. 1276.3 1245.3 31.0
Resid. Fixed Invest. 566.3 565.9 0.4
Net Exports -631.9 -583.2 -48.7
Govt. Purchases 1954.5 1949.9 4.6
---------------------------------------------------
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES, 2000 CHAINED DOLLARS)
--------------------------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
----------------------------------------
2004 4.5% 3.3% 4.0% 3.1%
2003 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
2002 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
2001 -0.5% 1.2% -1.4% 1.6%
2000 1.0% 6.4% -0.5% 2.1%
1999 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 7.3%
1998 4.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.2%
-----------------------------------------
MEMO ITEM: Annual change in real GDP
before and after the "comprehensive
revision" published by the Commerce
Department on 12/10/03.
----------------------------------------
1929-2002 1959-1992 1992-2002
---------------------------------
After 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
Before 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
---------------------------------------------------
| 