Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering January. Based on the report, the unemployment rate fell 0.2%, to 5.2%, while payroll employment expanded by 146,000 jobs, well below the consensus prediction.
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NOTE: Today's report included extensive revisions to prior payroll data. These have been incorporated into the following text and statistical tables.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate exceeded the consensus forecast, which was predicting no change. Results for payroll employment were noticeably below the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain of about 200,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 146,000 during January. This compared with a gain of 117,000 in payroll employment during January of 2004.
Today's release contained downward revisions to both November and December payroll data, to +132,000 from +137,000, and to +133,000 from +157,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 411,000 jobs, versus the 440,000 gain before the November and December adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003-4 payroll employment rose by 296,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Mo. /04 /03 /02 /01 /00 /99
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Jan. 146 117 86 -124 -30 245
Dec. 133 83 -154 -174 158 294
Nov. 132 96 6 -293 216 295
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Tot. 411 296 -62 -591 344 834
=== === === === === ===
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For the 12 months ended January 2005, payroll employment grew by a reported 2,201,000 jobs. This compares with a reported increase of 125,000 jobs during the 12-month period ended January 2004.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose three cents in January, to 15.88. This represented a gain of about 0.2% from December's $15.85, the latter revised down one cent from last month's report.
Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.6%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 3.3% for the 12 months ended December (latest CPI data currently available.) During the 12 months ended December, the year-over-year gain in the Consumer Price Index exceeded year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all but one of those months (March 2004).
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
01/05 5.2 5.7 146 117 15.88 15.48 2.6%
12/04 5.4 5.7 133 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 83 3 15.70 15.39 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 106 27 15.64 15.34 2.0%
05/04 5.6 6.1 250 -26 15.62 15.31 2.0%
04/04 5.5 6.0 337 -54 15.58 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 320 -218 15.54 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 94 -122 15.51 15.27 1.6%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 3.7 3.9 1.8 0.8 4.1
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 4.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.5 1.5 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.7 7.4 -0.8 3.7 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
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Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
12/04 191.1 184.9 3.3% 150.8 144.8 4.1%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 151.8 144.5 5.0%
10/04 190.9 184.9 3.2% 151.0 144.7 4.4%
09/04 189.7 185.1 2.5% 148.5 143.8 3.3%
08/04 189.4 184.5 2.7% 148.4 143.5 3.4%
07/04 189.3 183.8 3.0% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
06/04 189.4 183.5 3.2% 148.3 142.7 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.6 141.9 4.7%
04/04 187.6 183.4 2.3% 147.7 142.5 3.6%
03/04 187.2 184.0 1.7% 146.7 144.6 1.5%
02/04 186.3 183.2 1.7% 145.8 142.8 2.1%
01/04 185.8 182.2 2.0% 145.7 141.1 3.3%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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