Summary
In its release yesterday of international trade data, the Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit fell $2.9 billion during December, to $56.4 billion. A drop in oil imports played a sizable role in the decline. For all of 2004, the trade deficit came in at a stunning $617.7 billion!
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Yesterday's report from the Commerce Department indicated that the US trade deficit (goods and services) during December came in at $56.4 billion, $2.9 billion below the November level. The revised deficit for November was $59.3 billion, down about one billion from the figure originally reported. Despite the downward revision, November's red ink remains a monthly record.
The December deficit was the result of imports that totaled $156.57 billion, and exports totaling $100.17 billion. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for November of $156.43 billion and $97.10 billion. Thus, in comparing December to November, imports were up by about 0.1%, while exports rose almost 3.2%.
For all of 2004, the trade deficit totaled $617.7 billion, $121.2 billion or 24.4% more than during 2003. Following are last year's monthly deficits (in billions), along with the comparable figures for 2003. The latest revisions have been incorporated. (NOTE: The monthly figures and quarterly totals may not add to the annual totals due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.)
2004 2003
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December $ 56.403 $ 44.011
November $ 59.333 $ 39.994
October $ 56.100 $ 41.490
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4th Qtr. $171.836 $125.495
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September $ 51.020 $ 41.251
August $ 53.956 $ 40.185
July $ 50.651 $ 40.814
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3rd Qtr. $155.627 $122.250
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June $ 55.437 $ 40.035
May $ 47.406 $ 40.827
April $ 48.528 $ 42.519
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2nd Qtr. $151.371 $123.381
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March $ 47.148 $ 43.659
February $ 45.880 $ 40.375
January $ 45.864 $ 41.354
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1st Qtr. $138.892 $125.388
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12-Mo. Total $617.725 $496.508
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As the table appearing below indicates, crude oil imports totaled $11.76 billion in December, almost $1.7 billion below November's record $13.43 billion. The December decline was the result of a drop in import volume, from 326.5 million to 321.1 million barrels, and a decline in the average price per barrel, from $41.15 to $36.63.
Crude oil imports were equal to 7.5% of total imports in December, down from 8.6% in November. In December, crude imports equaled 8.9% of goods-only imports, which totaled $131.7 billion.
(NOTE: The above calculations take license with mixing seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data. For the purpose at hand, the distortion in not significant.)
During 2004, crude oil imports totaled $131.7 billion or 7.5% of total imports. Of goods-only imports ($1473.8 billion) for the twelve-month period, crude imports equaled 8.9%. (Again, these calculations mix seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data).
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2004
Dec. $ 156.574 0.321 $ 11.760 $36.63 7.5
Nov. 156.428 0.326 13.435 41.15 8.6
Oct. 154.028 0.316 13.198 41.79 8.6
Sep. 148.647 0.304 11.421 37.62 7.7
Aug. 150.324 0.331 12.044 36.37 8.0
July 146.677 0.319 10.611 33.28 7.2
June 148.510 0.347 11.697 33.76 7.9
May 144.363 0.316 10.474 33.12 7.3
Apr. 142.943 0.312 9.668 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.502 0.332 10.162 30.64 7.1
Feb. 138.263 0.288 8.395 29.17 6.1
Jan. 134.603 0.309 8.835 28.55 6.6
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Total $1763.863 3.821 $131.700 $34.47 7.5
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2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services,
seasonally adjusted. MEMO ITEM: Crude oil
to goods-only imports: 1973 = 6.5%, 2004
= 8.9%.
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Employing the figures in the above tables, here's another way of assessing oil imports within the context of the nation's trade deficit (in approximate terms, because of the mixing of adjusted and unadjusted data). What would the deficit look like if the United States neither imported nor exported any crude oil?
In December, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $56.4 billion. With no US crude oil imports, the figure would have been $44.6 billion, or 20.9% lower. For all of 2004, zero oil imports would have lowered the cumulative deficit by $131.7 billion, or by about 21.3%.
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U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED COUNTRIES/REGIONS
(Ranked in Order of Cum. 2004 Size. Amounts Are
in Billions of $s and Are Not Seasonally Adjusted)
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2004 2003 % Chg.
Country/ ------------------- ------------------- 2004/
Region December Cumulative December Cumulative 2003
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China 14.264 161.978 9.883 124.068 30.6
Japan 6.850 75.195 5.760 66.032 13.9
OPEC 5.816 71.867 4.568 51.065 40.7
Canada 4.853 65.764 4.520 51.671 27.3
Germany 4.246 45.855 4.131 39.209 17.0
Mexico 3.399 45.068 3.113 40.648 10.9
Korea 1.342 19.829 1.416 13.157 50.7
Italy 1.697 17.378 1.355 14.854 17.0
Taiwan 0.638 12.887 0.851 14.152 -8.9
UK 1.279 10.442 1.094 8.967 16.4
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