Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its second or "preliminary" estimate of fourth-quarter 2004 gross domestic product. According to Commerce, GDP rose at a 3.8% annual rate during the quarter. This was up from a 3.1% rate in the initial estimate (released on 1/28). One, quick observation: The improvement shown in the current number is not as solid as is immediately being portrayed on Tout TV and Tout Radio!
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Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its second or "preliminary" estimate of fourth-quarter 2004 gross domestic product. According to Commerce, GDP rose at a 3.8% annual rate during the quarter. This was up from a 3.1% rate in the initial estimate (released on 1/28), and it compares with a 4.0% rate for last year's September quarter. Measured on a 4Q2004 over 4Q2003 basis, gross domestic product rose 3.9% during 2004.
I plan to publish additional comments about this morning's numbers in a later missive. In the meantime, the following tables contain the data relating to today's release. (These tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts section of the GRA website.)
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PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF FOURTH-QUARTER 2004
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Released
2/25 -- Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars
at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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4Q2004 3Q2004 Change/
Prelim. Final Impact
------------------------
Real GDP 10993.3 10891.0 3.8%
Inventory Change 51.0 34.5 +$16.5
Real Final Sales 10940.7 10854.7 3.2%
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Components of GDP
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Personal Consumption 7746.2 7667.8 4.2%
Nonres. Fixed Investment* 1286.7 1245.3 14.0%
Resid. Fixed Investment 568.9 565.9 2.1%
Net Exports -623.4 -583.2 -$40.2
Government Purchases* 1955.6 1949.9 1.2%
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Implicit Price Deflators:
Gross Domestic Product 2.1% 1.4% --
Gross Domestic Purchases 2.8% 2.0% --
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*MEMO ITEMS
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Government Purchases
--------------------
Total 1955.6 1949.9 1.2%
State & Local 1225.7 1223.2 0.8%
Federal 729.7 726.6 1.7%
National Defense 491.1 491.5 -0.3%
Nonresidential
Fixed Investment
----------------
Total 1286.7 1245.3 14.0%
Structures 241.8 241.0 1.3%
Equipment & Software 1058.5 1015.6 18.0%
Info. Processing
Equip. & Software 598.7 575.6 17.0%
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MAJOR GDP COMPONENTS -- CHANGES BETWEEN
"PRELIMINARY AND "ADVANCE" 4Q2004 ESTIMATES
(Billions of 2000 Chained Dollars at
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)
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4Q2004 3Q2004
Prelim. Advance Change
----------------------------
Real GDP 10993.3 10975.7 17.6
Inventory Change 51.0 45.8 5.2
Real Final Sales 10940.7 10928.1 12.6
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Personal Consumption 7746.2 7755.4 -9.2
Nones. Fixed Invest. 1286.7 1276.3 10.4
Resid. Fixed Invest. 568.9 566.3 2.6
Net Exports -623.4 -631.9 8.5
Govt. Purchases 1955.6 1954.5 1.1
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REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES, 2000 CHAINED DOLLARS)
--------------------------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
----------------------------------------
2004 4.5% 3.3% 4.0% 3.8%
2003 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
2002 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
2001 -0.5% 1.2% -1.4% 1.6%
2000 1.0% 6.4% -0.5% 2.1%
1999 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 7.3%
1998 4.5% 2.7% 4.7% 6.2%
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MEMO ITEM: Annual change in real GDP
before and after the "comprehensive
revision" published by the Commerce
Department on 12/10/03.
----------------------------------------
1929-2002 1959-1992 1992-2002
---------------------------------
After 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
Before 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
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NOMINAL AND REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(SAAR, 2000 Chained Dollars); RATIO OF REAL
TO NOMINAL; IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR
GDP AND FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PURCHASES
------------------------------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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2004 Nominal 7.4% 6.1% 5.5% 6.0%
Real 4.5% 2.8% 4.0% 3.9%
R/N 0.61 0.46 0.73 0.65
===========================================
GDP Def. 2.7% 3.2% 1.4% 2.1%
PCE Def. 3.4% 3.5% 2.0% 2.8%
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2003 Nominal 4.9% 5.3% 8.8% 5.7%
Real 1.9% 4.1% 7.4% 4.2%
R/N 0.39 0.77 0.84 0.74
===========================================
GDP Def. 2.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%
PCE Def. 3.9% 0.4% 1.6% 1.2%
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2002 Nominal 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.7%
Real 3.4% 2.4% 2.6% 0.7%
R/N 0.77 0.57 0.67 0.26
===========================================
GDP Def. 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 2.0%
PCE Def. 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1.9%
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