Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering February. Based on the report, the unemployment rate rose 0.2%, to 5.4%, while payroll employment expanded by 262,000 jobs.
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In today's employment release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate were a good deal worse than the consensus forecast, which was predicting no change. On the other hand, results for payroll employment were better than the Wall Street forecast, which was looking for a gain of about 225,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes. The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 262,000 during February. This compared with a gain of 94,000 in payroll employment during February of 2004.
Today's release contained upward/downward revisions to December and January payroll data, to +155,000 from +133,000, and to +132,000 from +146,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 549,000 jobs, versus the 541,000 gain before the December and January adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2003-4 payroll employment rose by 294,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Mo. /04 /03 /02 /01 /00 /99
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Feb. 262 94 -122 -103 92 120
Jan. 132 117 86 -124 -30 245
Dec. 155 83 -154 -174 158 294
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Tot. 549 294 -190 -401 220 659
=== === === === === ===
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For the 12 months ended February 2005, payroll employment grew by a reported 2,377,000 jobs. This compares with a reported increase of 341,000 jobs during the 12-month period ended February 2004.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings were unchanged in February, at $15.90. January's $15.90 was revised up two cents from last month's report.
Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.5%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended January (latest CPI data currently available). During the 12 months ended January, the year-over-year gain in the Consumer Price Index exceeded year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all but one of those months (March 2004).
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
02/05 5.4 5.6 262 94 15.90 15.51 2.5%
01/05 5.2 5.7 132 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 83 3 15.70 15.39 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 106 27 15.64 15.34 2.0%
05/04 5.6 6.1 250 -26 15.62 15.31 2.0%
04/04 5.5 6.0 337 -54 15.58 15.25 2.2%
03/04 5.7 5.8 320 -218 15.54 15.27 1.8%
02/04 5.6 5.9 94 -122 15.51 15.27 1.6%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 3.8 3.9 1.3 2.1 4.0
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 4.0 6.7 8.7 2.8 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.3 4.3 1.5 4.3
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.9 1.2 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.6 7.5 -1.0 3.6 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.2%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.5 145.3 4.3%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.0 144.6 5.1%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 150.9 144.8 4.2%
09/04 189.6 185.0 2.5% 148.9 144.1 3.3%
08/04 189.3 184.4 2.7% 148.5 143.6 3.4%
07/04 189.2 183.8 2.9% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
06/04 189.3 183.4 3.2% 148.2 142.6 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.3 141.7 4.7%
04/04 187.7 183.5 2.3% 147.4 142.2 3.7%
03/04 187.3 184.1 1.7% 146.4 144.3 1.5%
02/04 186.5 183.3 1.7% 145.6 142.6 2.1%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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