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| September Employment Data - Oct. 3, 2003 |
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Earlier this morning, the Labor Department released employment data
covering September. Based on the report, the unemployment rate remained
unchanged at 6.1%, while payroll employment grew by 57,000 jobs.
The approximate consensus forecasts were for a 0.1% increase in the
unemployment rate, and for a decline of about 25,000 payroll jobs.
There are two components to each month's employment report, the
household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the
household survey, making it a visible and sensitive number for politicians.
As for the payroll survey, it represents the number more important to the
behavior of the financial markets. The report today indicated an increase of
57,000 jobs during September. This compared with a gain of 65,000 in payroll
employment during September of 2002.
Today's report included revisions to August and July payroll data, to
-41,000 from -93,000, and to -57,000 from -49,000. Thus, including
revisions, payroll employment over the last three months contracted a net of 41,000
jobs, versus the minus 85,000 before the August and July adjustments. (Over the
same three-month period in 2002, the economy lost 94,000 payroll jobs.)
According to today's report, average hourly earnings fell one cent or
0.1% in September, to $15.45 from August's revised $15.46 (revised up by one
cent). Year over year, average hourly earnings were up 2.7%.
The bond and stock markets' reaction so far to these numbers: bonds
are down sharply, stock futures are up very, very sharply. My guess for
today's entire session is that bonds wind up in the red, and that stocks finish the
day up much, much less sharply.
The table below contains the latest available results for key
employment and inflation series.
The Labor Department did report a benchmark revision to the payroll
numbers today. It was a downward one, and Labor will fully incorporate it in
the payroll series early next year. Following is the text regarding this
revision that appeared in this mornings "Employment Situation Summary."
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Benchmark Revisions to the Payroll Survey
In accordance with annual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has
completed preliminary tabulations of the universe counts for the first quarter
of this year. The tabulations indicate that the estimate of total nonfarm
payroll employment will require a downward revision of approximately 145,000, or
one-tenth of one percent, for the March 2003 reference month. The historical
average for benchmark revisions over the last 10 years has been plus or minus
three-tenths of one percent. BLS will publish data revised to the March 2003
benchmark on February 6, 2004, with the release of data for January 2004.
Previously, the revised data were published in June of each year; earlier receipt
and tabulation of the benchmark source data now make it feasible to accelerate
the publication date to February, beginning in 2004.
_____
[courier]
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
Month No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
09/03 6.1 5.7 +57 +65 15.45 15.05 2.7%
08/03 6.1 5.8 -41 +20 15.46 15.02 2.9%
07/03 6.2 5.8 -57 -179 15.43 14.97 3.1%
06/03 6.4 5.8 -83 -28 15.38 14.93 3.0%
05/03 6.1 5.8 -76 -4 15.35 14.86 3.3%
04/03 6.0 5.9 -22 -66 15.30 14.81 3.3%
03/03 5.8 5.7 -151 -29 15.29 14.80 3.3%
02/03 5.8 5.6 -121 -68 15.29 14.77 3.5%
01/03 5.7 5.6 +158 -83 15.22 14.74 3.3%
12/02 6.0 5.8 -211 -239 15.20 14.73 3.2%
11/02 5.9 5.6 +1 -298 15.14 14.70 3.0%
10/02 5.8 5.4 +119 -352 15.10 14.64 3.1%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2003 1.3 0.9 - - 2.1 6.8 - - -
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 9.3 1.0 5.9 1.7 5.4
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 1.6 3.4 8.3 1.9
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.3 5.7 0.8 2.2 3.0
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 2.4 -0.9 3.5 6.3 2.3
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 5.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 2.6
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 4.1 3.3 0.6 2.0
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX* PRODUCER PRICE INDEX#
-------------------------- ---------------------
Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
Month/ Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
08/03 184.5 180.5 2.2% 143.4 138.6 3.5%
07/03 183.9 180.1 2.1% 142.8 138.6 3.0%
06/03 183.6 179.8 2.1% 142.6 138.6 2.9%
05/03 183.3 179.5 2.1% 141.9 138.4 2.5%
04/03 183.3 179.3 2.2% 142.3 139.0 2.4%
03/03 183.9 178.5 3.0% 145.1 139.2 4.2%
02/03 183.3 177.9 3.0% 142.8 138.1 3.4%
01/03 182.2 177.6 2.6% 141.6 137.7 2.8%
12/02 181.6 177.3 2.4% 139.4 137.7 1.2%
11/02 181.4 177.4 2.3% 139.6 138.3 0.9%
10/02 181.2 177.6 2.0% 140.0 139.1 0.6%
09/02 180.9 178.1 1.6% 139.0 141.3 -1.6%
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[/courier]
NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. **All
urban, all items. ##Finished goods.
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