Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering March. Based on the report, the unemployment rate fell 0.2%, to 5.2%, while payroll employment expanded by 110,000 jobs.
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In today's release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate were better than the consensus forecast, which was looking a decline of 0.1%. On the other hand, results for payroll employment were a good deal worse than the Wall Street forecast, which was predicting a gain of about 220,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes.
The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 110,000 during March. This compared with a gain of 320,000 in payroll employment during March of 2004.
Today's release contained downward revisions to both January and February payroll data, to +124,000 from +132,000, and to +243,000 from +262,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 477,000 jobs, versus the 504,000 gain before the January and February adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2004, payroll employment rose by 531,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
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Mar. 110 320 -218 -37 -35 476
Feb. 243 94 -122 -103 92 120
Jan. 124 117 86 -124 -30 245
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Tot. 477 531 -254 -264 27 841
=== === === === == ===
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For the 12 months ended March 2005, payroll employment grew by a reported 2,140,000 jobs. This compares with an increase of 879,000 jobs during the 12-month period ended March 2004.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose four cents or about 0.3% in March, to $15.95. This compared with February's $15.91. February was revised up one cent from last month's report.
Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.6%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended February (latest CPI data currently available). During the 12 months ended February, the year-over-year gain in the CPI exceeded year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all but one of those months (March 2004).
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
03/05 5.2 5.7 110 320 15.95 15.54 2.6%
02/05 5.4 5.6 243 94 15.91 15.51 2.6%
01/05 5.2 5.7 124 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 83 3 15.70 15.39 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 106 27 15.64 15.34 2.0%
05/04 5.6 6.1 250 -26 15.62 15.31 2.0%
04/04 5.5 6.0 337 -54 15.58 15.25 2.2%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 3.8 3.9 1.3 2.1 4.0
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 4.0 6.7 8.7 2.8 4.4
2002 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.3 4.3 1.5 4.3
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.9 1.2 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.6 7.5 -1.0 3.6 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
02/05 192.0 186.5 2.9% 152.5 145.6 4.7%
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.2%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.5 145.3 4.3%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.0 144.6 5.1%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 151.1 144.8 4.4%
09/04 189.6 185.0 2.5% 148.9 144.1 3.3%
08/04 189.3 184.4 2.7% 148.5 143.6 3.4%
07/04 189.2 183.8 2.9% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
06/04 189.3 183.4 3.2% 148.2 142.6 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.3 141.7 4.7%
04/04 187.7 183.5 2.3% 147.4 142.2 3.7%
03/04 187.3 184.1 1.7% 146.4 144.3 1.5%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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