Summary
Per today's release from the Labor Department, the April unemployment rate held steady at 5.2%, while payroll employment rose by 274,000 jobs during the month.
_____
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data covering April. Based on the report, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.2%. Payroll employment expanded by 274,000 jobs.
In today's release from the Labor Department, reported results for the unemployment rate matched the consensus forecast, which was looking for no change from March. On the other hand, results for payroll employment were a good deal better than the Wall Street forecast, which was predicting a gain of about 175,000 jobs.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes.
The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it certainly possesses political importance, too. The report today indicated job growth of 274,000 during April. This compared with a gain of 337,000 in payroll employment during April of 2004.
Today's release contained upward revisions to both February and March payroll data, to +300,000 from +243,000, and to +146,000 from +110,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 720,000 jobs, versus the 627,000 gain before the February and March adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2004, payroll employment rose by 751,000.)
The following table puts into perspective the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the comparable period during the prior five years.
---------------------------------------
TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
---------------------------------------
Mo. 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
---------------------------------------
Apr. 274 337 -54 -106 -297 285
Mar. 146 320 -218 -37 -35 476
Feb. 300 94 -122 -103 92 120
---------------------------------
Tot. 720 751 -394 -246 -240 881
=== === === === === ===
---------------------------------------
For the 12 months ended April 2005, payroll employment grew by a reported 2,170,000 jobs. This compares with an increase of 1,270,000 jobs during the 12-month period ended April 2004.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose five cents or about 0.3% in April, to $16.00. This compared with March's $15.95. The March figure was unrevised from last month's report.
Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.7%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 3.2% for the 12 months ended March (latest CPI data currently available). During the 12 months ended March, the year-over-year gain in the CPI exceeded year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all 12 of those months.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
-------------------------------------------------
KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
-------------------------------------------------
PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
04/05 5.2 5.5 274 337 16.00 15.58 2.7%
03/05 5.2 5.7 146 320 15.95 15.54 2.6%
02/05 5.4 5.6 300 94 15.91 15.51 2.6%
01/05 5.2 5.7 124 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 83 3 15.70 15.39 2.0%
06/04 5.6 6.3 106 27 15.64 15.34 2.0%
05/04 5.6 6.1 250 -26 15.62 15.31 2.0%
-------------------------------------------------
EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2005 0.7 - - - 2.6 - - - -
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.8 3.9 1.3 2.1 4.1
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 4.0 6.7 8.7 2.8 4.4
2002 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.9 1.3 4.3 1.5 4.3
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.9 1.2 6.6 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -1.6 7.5 -1.0 3.6 2.8
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.1 0.9 2.9 6.9 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 2.7
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.7 5.1 3.7 1.2 1.6
-------------------------------------------------
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
03/05 193.2 187.3 3.2% 153.6 146.4 4.9%
02/05 192.0 186.5 2.9% 152.5 145.6 4.7%
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.2%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.5 145.3 4.3%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.1 144.6 5.2%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 151.1 144.8 4.4%
09/04 189.6 185.0 2.5% 148.9 144.1 3.3%
08/04 189.3 184.4 2.7% 148.5 143.6 3.4%
07/04 189.2 183.8 2.9% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
06/04 189.3 183.4 3.2% 148.2 142.6 3.9%
05/04 188.8 183.3 3.0% 148.3 141.7 4.7%
04/04 187.7 183.5 2.3% 147.4 142.2 3.7%
-------------------------------------------------
NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
-------------------------------------------------
|
