Summary
Earlier today, the Commerce Department reported that the nation's trade deficit in March came in at 55.0 billion, down sharply from February's revised deficit of $60.6 billion.
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Based on the Commerce Department's report of earlier today, the US trade deficit (goods and services) came in at $55.0 billion in March, compared with a revised February deficit of $60.6 billion. (The February figure was originally reported at a negative $61.0 billion.)
The March result was far below a consensus forecast that was looking for a deficit of about $62 billion.
Despite the downward revision, February's shortfall remains the monthly record, surpassing November 2004's then-record of $59.4 billion.
The trade deficit for 2005's first three months exceeded last year's January-March red ink by a very substantial $45.22 billion, or 35.1%.
2005 2004 Yr./Yr.
------- ------- -------
March $ 54.986 $ 47.128 16.7%
February $ 60.570 $ 45.863 32.1%
January $ 58.504 $ 45.847 27.6%
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1st Quart. $174.060 $128.838 35.1%
------- ------- -----
March's trade deficit was the result of imports totaling $157.19 billion, and record exports totaling $102.21 billion. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for February of $161.25 billion (a record), and $100.68 billion. Thus, in comparing March to February, imports fell about 2.5% (despite a substantial increase in oil imports), while exports rose more than 1.5%.
The net export result is one of six major components of gross domestic product. The lower-than-expected deficit in March, coupled with February's modest downward revision, will likely account for a positive impact on first-quarter GDP as it relates to the trade influence, when the next GDP estimate is released at the end of May.
As the table below indicates, March crude oil imports totaled $13.41 billion, almost $2.5 billion more than February's $10.92 billion. The increase was the result of higher import volume (+9.8%) and a large jump in price, to $41.14 per barrel in March, up from $36.85 per barrel in February.
Crude oil imports were equal to 8.5% of total imports in March, up from 6.8% in February. In March, crude imports were equal to 10.2% of goods-only imports, which were reported at $131.5 billion.
(NOTE: The above calculations take license with mixing seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data. For the purpose at hand, the distortion in not significant.)
During 2004, crude oil imports totaled $131.7 billion, about 7.5% of total imports. Of goods-only imports for the twelve-month period ($1473.1 billion), crude imports equaled 8.9%. (Again, these calculations mix seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data).
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2005
Mar. $ 157.191 0.326 $ 13.410 $41.14 8.5
Feb. $ 161.250 0.297 $ 10.942 36.85 6.8
Jan. 158.937 0.323 11.410 35.35 7.2
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2005
S/T $ 477.378 0.946 $ 35.762 $37.80 7.0
===============================================
2004
Dec. $ 156.169 0.321 $ 11.760 $36.63 7.5
Nov. 156.738 0.326 13.435 41.15 8.6
Oct. 154.028 0.316 13.198 41.79 8.6
Sep. 148.796 0.304 11.421 37.62 7.7
Aug. 150.397 0.331 12.044 36.37 8.0
July 146.760 0.319 10.611 33.28 7.2
June 148.542 0.347 11.697 33.76 7.9
May 144.393 0.316 10.474 33.12 7.3
Apr. 142.973 0.312 9.668 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.531 0.332 10.162 30.64 7.1
Feb. 138.293 0.288 8.395 29.17 6.1
Jan. 134.633 0.309 8.835 28.55 6.6
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2004
Total $1764.243 3.821 $131.700 $34.47 7.5
===============================================
2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services,
seasonally adjusted. MEMO ITEM: Crude oil
to goods-only imports: 1973 = 6.5%, 2004
= 8.9%, March 2005 = 10.2%.
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Employing the figures in the above tables, here's another way of assessing oil imports within the context of the nation's trade deficit (in approximate terms, because of the mixing of adjusted and unadjusted data). What would the deficit look like if the United States neither imported nor exported any crude oil?
In March, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $55.0 billion. With no US crude oil imports, the figure would have been $41.6 billion, or 24.4% lower.
For 2005's first three months, the goods-and-services deficit came in at $174.1 billion. With no US crude oil imports, the figure would have been $138.3 billion, or 20.6% lower.
During 2004, zero oil imports would have lowered the cumulative deficit by $131.7 billion, or by about 21.3%.
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U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED
COUNTRIES/REGIONS (Ranked in
Order of March Size. Amounts
in Billions of $s and Are
Not Seasonally Adjusted)
--------------------------------
2005 2005
Country/ --------------------
Region March February
--------------------------------
China 12.904 13.871
Japan 7.834 6.867
OPEC 6.584 6.255
Canada 5.047 5.769r
Germany 4.309 3.674
Mexico 4.258 3.668
Italy 1.577 1.317
Korea 1.345 1.187
UK 0.866 0.582
Taiwan 0.748 1.035
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U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED COUNTRIES/REGIONS
(Ranked in Order of Cumulative 2004 Size. Amounts Are
in Billions of $s and Are Not Seasonally Adjusted)
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2004 2003 % Chg.
Country/ ------------------- ------------------- 2004/
Region December Cumulative December Cumulative 2003
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China 14.264 161.978 9.883 124.068 30.6
Japan 6.850 75.195 5.760 66.032 13.9
OPEC 5.816 71.867 4.568 51.065 40.7
Canada 4.853 65.764 4.520 51.671 27.3
Germany 4.246 45.855 4.131 39.209 17.0
Mexico 3.399 45.068 3.113 40.648 10.9
Korea 1.342 19.829 1.416 13.157 50.7
Italy 1.697 17.378 1.355 14.854 17.0
Taiwan 0.638 12.887 0.851 14.152 -8.9
UK 1.279 10.442 1.094 8.967 16.4
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