John Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Gillespie Research Archives

First-Quarter GDP, Preliminary Estimate (#1)   - May. 26, 2005


Summary

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department reported that real gross domestic product grew at a revised 3.5% annual rate in the first quarter, versus a 3.8% rate during last year's fourth quarter. Today's revision compares with the initial estimated first-quarter growth rate of 3.1% that was released in late April.
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Although this morning's report from the Commerce Department showed a 0.4% upward revision to real GDP growth for the first quarter, the quality of the additional strength was mixed -- at best. For instance, the significant reported decline in the first quarter's trade deficit was equal to almost 119% of the overall $10.6 billion increase in total GDP shown in this morning's release.

I will publish a more detailed examination of today's report soon.

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