Summary
The Commerce Department's report on US international trade for April, released on 6/10, contained a good deal of revised data, some of it going back as far as 1992. This missive provides a recap of those revisions.
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Last month's trade report (released 6/10 and covering results through April 2005) contained revised data, some of it going back as far as 1992. On Wednesday (7/13), the Commerce Department will release May data. In advance of that report, I wanted to provide updated numbers for the series I generally analyze and discuss.
The Numbers in General
Based on the Commerce Department's report of last month, the US trade deficit (goods and services) came in at $57.0 billion in April, compared with a revised March deficit of $53.6 billion. (The March figure was originally reported at minus $55.0 billion.)
April's trade deficit was the result of record imports totaling $163.38 billion, and exports totaling $106.42 billion, also a record. These figures compared with respective revised import/export figures for March of $156.91 billion and $103.35 billion.
The reported trade deficit for 2005's first four months exceeded last year's January-April red ink by a substantial $41.5 billion, or 22.1%.
2005 2004 Y/Y
------- ------- -------
April $ 56.963 $ 48.406 17.7%
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March $ 53.562 $ 46.966 14.0%
February $ 60.117 $ 45.834 31.2%
January $ 58.077 $ 46.053 26.1%
-------- -------- -----
1st Quart. $171.756 $138.853 35.1%
-------- -------- -----
Year to Date $228.719 $187.259 22.1%
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The Crude Oil Data
April crude oil imports totaled $14.05 billion, $0.64 billion more than March's $13.41 billion.
Crude oil imports were equal to 8.6% of total imports in April, up from 8.5% in March. In April, crude imports were equal to 10.3% of goods-only imports, which were reported at $136.7 billion.
(NOTE: The above calculations mix seasonally adjusted and seasonally unadjusted data. For the purpose at hand, the distortion in not significant.)
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TOTAL U.S. IMPORTS AND CRUDE OIL IMPORTS*
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Crude Oil Imports**
Total -----------------------
Imports# Barrels Value Avg. Crude/
Year/ -------- -------------- Price Total
Month (Amounts in Billions) Per Bbl. (%)
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2005
Apr. $ 163.382 0.314 $ 14.045 $44.76 8.6
Mar. 156.914 0.326 13.410 41.14 8.5
Feb. 161.877 0.297 10.942 36.85 6.8
Jan. 160.656 0.323 11.410 35.55 7.1
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2005
S/T $ 642.829 1.260 $ 49.807 $39.53 7.7
===============================================
2004
Dec. $ 156.393 0.321 $ 11.689 $36.46 7.5
Nov. 157.618 0.330 13.577 41.19 8.6
Oct. 154.098 0.313 13.107 41.84 8.5
Sep. 149.607 0.297 11.143 37.52 7.5
Aug. 150.705 0.334 12.196 36.54 8.1
July 147.523 0.324 10.818 33.38 7.3
June 149.143 0.345 11.631 33.74 7.8
May 145.141 0.318 10.535 33.14 7.3
Apr. 142.857 0.312 9.662 31.00 6.8
Mar. 142.139 0.330 10.118 30.66 7.1
Feb. 138.223 0.288 8.414 29.17 6.1
Jan. 135.584 0.310 8.853 28.57 6.5
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2004
Total $1769.031 3.822 $131.743 $34.47 7.5
===============================================
2003 $1517.011 3.676 $99.167 $26.98 6.5
1998 1098.363 3.243 37.252 11.49 3.4
1993 713.058 2.543 38.469 15.13 5.4
1988 545.715 1.888 25.844 13.69 4.7
1983 323.874 1.294 38.184 29.51 11.8
1978 208.191 2.392 32.140 13.43 15.4
1973 89.342 1.393 4.593 3.30 5.1
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*Source: US Department of Commerce. **Not
seasonally adjusted. #Goods and services,
seasonally adjusted. MEMO ITEM: Crude oil
to goods-only imports: 1973 = 6.5%, 2004
= 8.9%, April 2005 = 10.3%.
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Selected Country/Region Trade
Results Through April 2005
--------------------------------
U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED
COUNTRIES/REGIONS (Ranked in
Order of April Size. Amounts
in Billions of $s and Are
Not Seasonally Adjusted)
--------------------------------
2005 2005
Country/ --------------------
Region April March
--------------------------------
China 14.715 12.904
Japan 7.177 7.834
OPEC 7.060 6.584
Canada 5.435 5.034
Germany 4.033 4.309
Mexico 4.400 4.258
Italy 1.479 1.577
Russia 1.417 1.013
Korea 1.301 1.345
UK 0.848 0.866
Taiwan 0.740 0.748
--------------------------------
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U.S. TRADE DEFICIT BY SELECTED COUNTRIES/REGIONS
(Ranked in Order of 2005 Size. Amounts Are in
Billions of $s and Are Not Seasonally Adjusted)
---------------------------------------------------------
2005 % Change
Country/ Through ---------
Region April-a Annual-b 2004 2003 2004/2003
---------------------------------------------------------
China 56.745 170.235 161.938 124.068 30.5
Japan 28.088 84.264 75.562 66.032 14.4
OPEC 25.952 77.856 71.843 51.065 40.7
Canada 22.502 67.506 66.480 51.671 28.7
Germany 15.563 46.689 45.850 39.281 16.7
Mexico 15.236 45.708 45.067 40.648 10.9
Korea 5.695 17.085 19.756 13.157 50.2
Italy 5.834 17.602 17.413 14.854 17.2
Russia 4.198 12.594 8.930 6.171 44.7
Taiwan 3.695 11.085 12.879 14.152 -9.0
UK 3.050 9.150 10.274 8.967 14.6
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a = actual 2005 cumulative. b = annualized.
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