Summary
On Friday (8/5), the Labor Department will release the employment numbers covering July. The following material breaks out the key numbers already reported that will lead into Friday's report. I've also excerpted some recent material written by John Williams. It comments on the June results, as well as outlining some possibilities for Friday's report.
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* June's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 0.1%, to 5.0%, but the 146,000 reported gain in payroll jobs was well short of a consensus forecast that was looking for an increase of around 200,000. However, there was an upward revision to prior data, with payroll employment for April and May revised higher by a total of 44,000 jobs. (See the table at the end of the text for the most recently reported key employment and inflation data.)
* For July, the consensus forecast is looking for an unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%, and growth in payroll employment of around 180,000 jobs.
Following is an excerpt of observations made my John Williams in his July 13th edition of Shadow Government Statistics:
"June's weak payroll numbers reflected a combination of slowing business activity and revisions...Of course, roughly 184,000 of the 146,000 new jobs gained were accounted for by the monthly bias factors. In July, however, the fudge factor turns negative; it was a subtraction of 80,000 last year.
"...Separately, despite the softer-than-expected results, poor quality seasonal adjustments still tended to inflate the number of [June] jobs reported. Seasonal-factor distortions are common in June -- with the end of the school year -- and such appears to have been the primary force behind the drop in the unemployment rate.
"...Chances are good for an outright contraction in July payrolls. This would result from a combination of the unfolding recession, a negative swing in bias factors and a likely reversal of screwy seasonal factors that inflated June reporting."
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
06/05 5.0 5.6 146 106 16.06 15.64 2.7%
05/05 5.1 5.6 104 250 16.03 15.62 2.6%
04/05 5.2 5.5 292 337 16.00 15.58 2.7%
03/05 5.2 5.7 122 320 15.95 15.54 2.6%
02/05 5.4 5.6 300 94 15.91 15.51 2.6%
01/05 5.2 5.7 124 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
07/04 5.5 6.2 83 3 15.70 15.39 2.0%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2005 0.7 0.7 - - 2.9 - - - -
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.8 4.1 0.9 2.3 4.0
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.4 7.2 8.6 2.7 4.3
2002 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 7.0 1.1 4.5 1.4 4.3
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.7 1.4 6.5 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -2.0 7.3 -0.9 4.0 2.7
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.6 0.5 2.8 7.1 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.2 1.2 4.5 2.1 2.8
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.2 5.0 3.4 1.6 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
06/05 194.1 189.3 2.5% 153.5 148.2 3.6%
05/05 194.1 188.8 2.8% 153.5 148.3 3.5%
04/05 194.2 187.7 3.5% 154.5 147.7 4.8%
03/05 193.2 187.3 3.2% 153.6 146.4 4.9%
02/05 192.0 186.5 2.9% 152.5 145.6 4.7%
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.2%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.7 145.3 4.4%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.1 144.6 5.2%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 151.1 144.8 4.4%
09/04 189.6 185.0 2.5% 148.9 144.1 3.3%
08/04 189.3 184.4 2.7% 148.5 143.6 3.4%
07/04 189.2 183.8 2.9% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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