Summary
Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data for July. The report showed an unemployment rate of 5.0%, unchanged from June. Meanwhile, payroll employment growth for the month came in at a reported 207,000, compared with a consensus estimate that was looking for something around 180,000.
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Today's release from the Labor Department showed that the unemployment rate in July remained unchanged at 5.0%. The report also indicated an expansion in payroll employment of 207,000 jobs during the month, above a consensus forecast that was looking for an increase of around 180.000. There were also upward revisions to May and June data.
The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes.
The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, but it also possesses a good deal of political importance. Today's report indicated job growth of 207,000 during July. This compared with a gain of 83,000 in payroll employment during July of last year.
There were upward revisions to May and June payroll job creation contained in today's release, to +126,000 from +104,000, and to +166,000 from +146,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 499,000 jobs, versus the 457,000 gain before the May/June adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2004, payroll employment rose by 439,000.)
The following table breaks out the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the same period in each of the prior five years.
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TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
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Mo. 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
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July 207 83 3 -100 -88 176
June 166 106 27 51 -158 -43
May 126 250 -26 -9 -27 220
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Tot. 499 439 4 -58 -273 353
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For the 12 months ended July 2005, payroll employment expanded by a reported 2.224 million jobs. This compared with an increase of 1.705 jobs during the 12-month period ended July 2004. Over the six-month periods ended July 2005 and 2004, respective reported growth was 1.213 million and 1.190 million.
According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose six cents during July, or by almost 0.4%, to $16.13. This compared with June's $16.03. The June figure was revised up one cent from last month's report.
Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.7%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 2.5% for the 12 months ended June (latest CPI data currently available).
During the 12 months ended June, the year-over-year gain in the CPI exceeded the year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all but one of those months, exhibiting the longer-run loss of real purchasing power based on these particular series.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
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KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
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PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
07/05 5.0 5.5 207 83 16.13 15.70 2.7%
06/05 5.0 5.6 166 106 16.07 15.64 2.7%
05/05 5.1 5.6 126 250 16.03 15.62 2.6%
04/05 5.2 5.5 292 337 16.00 15.58 2.7%
03/05 5.2 5.7 122 320 15.95 15.54 2.6%
02/05 5.4 5.6 300 94 15.91 15.51 2.6%
01/05 5.2 5.7 124 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
10/04 5.5 6.0 282 123 15.81 15.41 2.6%
09/04 5.4 6.1 130 94 15.77 15.40 2.4%
08/04 5.4 6.1 188 2 15.74 15.40 2.2%
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EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2005 0.7 0.7 - - 2.9 - - - -
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.8 4.1 0.9 2.3 4.0
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.4 7.2 8.6 2.7 4.3
2002 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 7.0 1.1 4.5 1.4 4.3
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.7 1.4 6.5 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -2.0 7.3 -0.9 4.0 2.7
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.6 0.5 2.8 7.1 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.2 1.2 4.5 2.1 2.8
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.2 5.0 3.4 1.6 1.6
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
06/05 194.1 189.3 2.5% 153.5 148.2 3.6%
05/05 194.1 188.8 2.8% 153.5 148.3 3.5%
04/05 194.2 187.7 3.5% 154.5 147.7 4.8%
03/05 193.2 187.3 3.2% 153.6 146.4 4.9%
02/05 192.0 186.5 2.9% 152.5 145.6 4.7%
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.2%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.7 145.3 4.4%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.1 144.6 5.2%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 151.1 144.8 4.4%
09/04 189.6 185.0 2.5% 148.9 144.1 3.3%
08/04 189.3 184.4 2.7% 148.5 143.6 3.4%
07/04 189.2 183.8 2.9% 148.3 142.8 3.9%
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NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
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