John Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Gillespie Research Archives

August Import Prices   - Sep. 9, 2005


Summary

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department reported that import prices rose a sharp 1.3% during August. The increase was led by a 7.1% rise in petroleum prices.
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According to this morning's release from the Labor Department, import prices registered a 1.3% increase during August, which compares with a 0.8% rise during July. (July's change was the same as in the original release.) The August increase was the largest since the 2.2% reported in March of this year.

As of August 2005, the year-over-year increase in import prices was 7.6%, versus a 7.1% 12-month gain as of August 2004.

Based on today's numbers, the price of petroleum imports surged 7.1% in August, which followed respective gains of 8.6% and 6.1% in June and July.

As of August 2005, petroleum import prices were 42.5% above their year earlier level. This compared with a year-over-year rise of 39.9% as of August 2004.

August import prices excluding the petroleum component were flat, versus a 0.2% decline in July (reported originally as the same minus 0.2%). The August year-over-year change in this sector was +1.8%. As of August 2004, import prices, excluding petroleum, were up 3.1% from a year earlier.
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            U.S. IMPORT PRICES - % CHANGE
      (3-Mo.= Three-month Compound Annual Rate)
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                        All Imports,     Petroleum 
         All Imports    Excl. Petrol.   Imports Only
Month/ -------------- --------------- ---------------
 Year  Mo. 3-Mo. Y/Y  Mo. 3-Mo. Y/Y   Mo.  3-Mo.  Y/Y
-----------------------------------------------------
08/05  1.3 14.0  7.6  0.0 -1.6  1.8   7.1 131.8  42.5
07/05  0.8  4.9  7.8 -0.2 -2.3  2.1   6.1  47.2  44.8
06/05  1.2  5.3  7.4 -0.2  0.0  2.3   8.6  34.1  39.6
05/05 -0.8  9.4  5.9 -0.2  2.0  2.6  -4.4  59.2  27.1
04/05  0.9 17.1  8.4  0.4  3.2  3.0   3.6 132.7  45.5
03/05  2.2 15.4  7.6  0.3  2.8  2.9  13.4 120.6  40.1
02/05  0.9  0.0  6.1  0.1  3.2  2.8   5.1 -17.9  29.8
01/05  0.6 -4.5  5.7  0.3  6.6  3.1   2.2 -47.4  24.2
=====================================================
08/04  1.5  6.8  7.1  0.3  1.6  3.1   8.8  46.7  39.9
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The sharp monthly increases in the price of imported crude oil during July and August could be a negative portent for the import component of trade data for these months. July and August trade data are scheduled for release on 9/13 and 10/13, respectively.

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