Summary
Earlier this morning, the Labor Department released October employment data. The report showed a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate, to 5.0%. There also was a reported 56,000 expansion in payroll jobs during the month, well below what the consensus forecast was looking for.
_____
* Today's release from the Labor Department indicated that the unemployment rate in October fell 0.1%, to 5.0%. The report also showed an increase of 56.000 payroll jobs during the month.
* The Labor Department reported that it was back to using normal procedures regarding its household employment survey for areas in Louisiana affected by Hurricane Katrina. However, the establishment survey (used to compute payroll employment) remained subject to a good deal of procedural adjustments.
* The Labor Department reported that Hurricane Rita had little impact on its October establishment survey for the areas affected by that storm, and that any impact Hurricane Wilma would have on the establishment survey for the areas affected by it would fell outside the October survey period.
* The consensus forecast of today's report was looking for an unemployment rate of 5.1%, versus the 5.0% that was reported. However, the consensus prediction of the gain in payroll jobs was around 125,000, well above the actual number reported.
* The two components comprising each month's employment report are the household survey and the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is derived from the former, making it a visible, highly sensitive number for political purposes.
* The payroll survey represents the number generally more important to the immediate behavior of the financial markets, although it also possesses a good deal of political importance. Today's report indicated job growth of 56,000 during October. This compared with a gain of 282,000 in payroll employment during October of last year.
* Today's report contained net revisions which subtracted 36,000 from August and September payroll job creation. August went to +148,000 from +211,0000, while September went to minus 8,000 from minus 35,000. Thus, including revisions, payroll employment over the last three months grew by 196,000 jobs, versus the 232,000 gain before the August and September adjustments. (During the same three-month period in 2004, payroll employment rose by 600,000.)
The following table breaks out the reported growth in payroll employment over the trailing three months, versus the same period in each of the prior five years.
-----------------------------------------
TRAILING THREE-MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOY-
MENT GROWTH (Thousands of Workers)
-----------------------------------------
Month 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
-----------------------------------------
Oct. 56 282 123 59 -377 -12
Sep. -8 130 94 -45 -254 118
Aug. 148 188 2 18 -138 -11
---------------------------------
Total 196 600 219 32 -769 95
=== === === === === ===
-----------------------------------------
* For the 12 months ended October 2005, payroll employment expanded by a reported 1.899 million jobs. This compared with an increase of 2.086 million during the 12-month period ended October 2004. Over the six-month periods ended October 2005 and 2004, reported growth was 0.774 million and 1.039 million, respectively.
* According to today's report, average hourly earnings rose eight cents during October, or by almost 0.5%, to $16.27. This compared with September's $16.19. The September figure was revised up by one cent from last month's report, and August's was revised up by two cents (to $16.17 from $16.15).
* Year over year, average hourly earnings rose 2.9%. This compares with a Consumer Price Index that rose 4.7% for the 12 months ended September (the latest CPI data currently available).
* During the 12 months ended September, the year-over-year gain in the CPI exceeded the year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings in all but one of those months, exhibiting the longer-run loss of real purchasing power based on these particular series.
The table below contains the latest available results for key employment and inflation series. (NOTE: The new material contained in these tables will be posted to the "Data & Charts" section on the GRA website.)
-------------------------------------------------
KEY U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION DATA
-------------------------------------------------
PAYROLL
UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AVERAGE HOURLY
RATE CHANGE EARNINGS
(%) (000s) ($s)
--------------- ---------- -----------------
Month Yr. Yr. Yr. Year/
/Year No. Ago No. Ago No. Ago Year
--------------- ---------- ------------------
10/05 5.0 5.5 56 282 16.27 15.81 2.9%
09/05 5.1 5.4 -8 130 16.19 15.77 2.7%
08/05 4.9 5.4 148 188 16.17 15.74 2.7%
07/05 5.0 5.5 277 83 16.14 15.70 2.8%
06/05 5.0 5.6 175 106 16.07 15.64 2.7%
05/05 5.1 5.6 126 250 16.03 15.62 2.6%
04/05 5.2 5.5 292 337 16.00 15.58 2.7%
03/05 5.2 5.7 122 320 15.95 15.54 2.6%
02/05 5.4 5.6 300 94 15.91 15.51 2.6%
01/05 5.2 5.7 124 117 15.90 15.48 2.7%
=================================================
12/04 5.4 5.7 155 83 15.85 15.45 2.6%
11/04 5.4 5.9 132 96 15.82 15.45 2.4%
-------------------------------------------------
EMPLOY. COST INDEX (%)* PRODUCTIVITY (%)#
----------------------- ------------------------
Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr.
----------------------- ------------------------
2005 0.7 0.7 0.8 - 3.2 2.1 4.1 - -
2004 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.1 4.5 1.3 2.5 3.4
2003 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.1 6.6 9.6 0.8 3.8
2002 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.5 0.8 4.1 0.2 4.0
2001 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.4 5.6 1.5 6.5 2.5
2000 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 -2.0 7.2 -0.9 4.0 2.7
1999 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 3.6 0.5 2.8 7.1 2.8
1998 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.2 1.2 4.5 2.1 2.8
1997 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 -1.2 5.0 3.4 1.6 1.6
-------------------------------------------------
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX## PRODUCER PRICE INDEX@
-------------------------- ---------------------
Month Yr. Year/ Yr. Year/
/Year Index Ago Year Index Ago Year
-------------------------- --------------------
09/05 198.5 189.6 4.7% 158.9 148.9 6.7%
08/05 196.1 189.3 3.6% 156.0 148.5 5.1%
07/05 195.1 189.2 3.1% 155.1 148.3 4.6%
06/05 194.1 189.3 2.5% 153.5 148.2 3.6%
05/05 194.1 188.8 2.8% 153.7 148.3 3.6%
04/05 194.2 187.7 3.5% 154.4 147.7 4.7%
03/05 193.2 187.3 3.2% 153.7 146.4 5.0%
02/05 192.0 186.5 2.9% 152.5 145.6 4.7%
01/05 191.3 185.9 2.9% 151.9 145.7 4.3%
=================================================
12/04 191.2 185.0 3.4% 151.7 145.3 4.4%
11/04 191.2 184.6 3.6% 152.1 144.6 5.2%
10/04 190.7 184.8 3.2% 151.1 144.8 4.4%
-------------------------------------------------
NOTE: All data are seasonally adjusted. *Total
civilian compensation, 3-month change. #Nonfarm
business output per hour, annual rates. ##All
urban, all items. @Finished goods.
-------------------------------------------------
|
