 |
|
| Fourth-Quarter 2005 GDP ("Advance" Estimate) #1 - Jan. 27, 2006 |
|
Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its initial ("advance") estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 gross domestic product, and it was something of a shocker. The report indicated real growth at a meager 1.1% annual rate during the period, versus the 4.1% rate reported for last year's third quarter. Net of inventory change, real GDP actually contracted at a 0.3% rate during the December quarter.
_____
* The Commerce Department's first ("advance") estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 gross domestic product indicated real growth during the period at a 1.1% annual rate, versus a 4.1% rate during last year's September quarter.
* During last year's final quarter, real final sales (GDP net of inventory change) actually contracted at a 0.3% annual rate.
* Measured in nominal (pre-inflation) terms, fourth-quarter 2005 GDP rose at a 4.2% rate, down sharply from the 7.6% rate of nominal growth during last year's third quarter.
* Measured on a 4Q2005-over-4Q2004 basis, real GDP in 2005 grew by 3.1%.
* The consensus estimate for real fourth-quarter growth anticipated something around a 2.8% annual rate, far above the 1.1% rate actually reported.
* The increase in the nation's trade deficit during the fourth quarter subtracted almost $33 billion from real GDP for the period.
* Today's report showed a highly "stagflationary" mix in the numbers.
I will soon publish a detailed look at today's numbers.
_____
|
|
|
|
|
|