 |
|
| Fourth-Quarter 2005 "Preliminary" GDP Revisions (#1) - Feb. 28, 2006 |
|
Summary
Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department released its second ("preliminary") estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 gross domestic product. The report indicated real growth at a rate of 1.6% during the period, versus the 1.1% rate reported last month.
_____
* The Commerce Department's second ("preliminary") estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 gross domestic product indicated real growth during the period at a 1.6% annual rate. This is up a bit from last month's initial estimate of 1.1%, and it compares with a 4.1% rate during last year's September quarter.
* One number in today's report that appears a bit "contrived" is real final sales, which is GDP net of inventory change. In the initial estimate, real final sales actually contracted at a 0.3% rate. In today's report, there were sufficient revisions to turn this key series very slightly positive.
* Measured in nominal (pre-inflation) terms, fourth-quarter 2005 GDP rose at a 5.0% rate, down sharply from the 7.6% rate of nominal growth during last year's third quarter.
* Measured on a 4Q2005-over-4Q2004 basis, real GDP in 2005 grew by 3.2%.
* The consensus estimate for real fourth-quarter growth anticipated something around a 1.5% annual rate, in line with the 1.6% actually reported.
* The increase in the nation's trade deficit during the fourth quarter subtracted a whopping $38.7 billion from real GDP for the period.
* Today's report continued to showed a highly "stagflationary" mix to the overall numbers.
I will soon publish a more detailed examination of today's release.
_____
|
|
|
|
|
|