Summary
Tomorrow morning (0830 ET), the Commerce Department is scheduled to report on US international trade for January. This missive contains some data leading into tomorrow's release.
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* The consensus estimate for the January trade deficit is running around $66.5 billion, which would compare with a reported December deficit of $65.7 billion.
* Included in tomorrow's report will be revisions to December. In fact, last month's report included revisions to several prior months, and these are incorporated in the table below. The net effect of these changes was to reduce the 2005 deficit by approximately $1.7 billion.
* Although there will be additional revisions down the road, tomorrow's release will provide me with a decent working number for all of 2005. As of the numbers already in hand, the 2005 trade deficit (goods and services) came in at a record $725.8 billion, up a very substantial $108.2 billion or 17.5% from 2004, which also was a record.
* As currently reported, US crude oil imports during 2005 totaled about $175.6 billion, versus $131.7 billion during 2004. Although import volume during 2005 actually fell a small amount, the per barrel price averaged $46.78, up 35.7% from 2004's $34.48.
* Through reported results as of 9/30/05 (latest available), the cumulative 2005 US current-account deficit stood at an astounding $592.3 billion, roughly 23.5% higher than the $479.7 shortfall recorded during the first nine months of 2004.
* For all of 2005, the current-account deficit should come in somewhere between $780 billion and $790 billion. The lower of these figures would represent an increase of almost $112 million or 16.7%. The higher of these figures would be an increase of more than 18%.
* The scheduled release date for 4Q-2005 current-account data is next Tuesday, 3/14. After these numbers become available, I plan on incorporating them into a major analytical piece that will help illustrate how incredibly vulnerable the US financial markets have become to a new, relatively protracted decline of any significance in the US dollar's exchange-rate value.
* The trade deficit comprises most of the current-account deficit, so keeping close track of the former is crucial in keeping track of the latter.
US Trade Deficit (Goods and Services)
-- Results Through Report Dated 2/10/06
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2005 2005
Revised Original 2004 Y/Y
-------- -------- -------- -----
December $ 65.677 $ 65.677 $ 54.672 20.1%
November $ 64.694 $ 64.207 $ 58.977 9.7%
October $ 67.909 $ 68.128 $ 55.574 22.2%
-------- -------- -------- -----
4th Quart. $198.280 $198.012 $169.223 17.2%
-------- -------- -------- -----
September $ 65.776 $ 65.995 $ 51.939 26.6%
August $ 58.766 $ 58.985 $ 54.195 8.4%
July $ 57.597 $ 57.816 $ 51.331 12.2%
-------- -------- -------- -----
3rd Quart. $182.139 $182.796 $157.465 15.7%
-------- -------- -------- -----
June $ 59.205 $ 59.424 $ 54.894 7.9%
May $ 56.046 $ 56.264 $ 48.742 15.0%
April $ 57.692 $ 57.911 $ 48.406 19.2%
-------- -------- -------- -----
2nd Quart. $172.943 $173.599 $152.042 13.7%
-------- -------- -------- -----
March $ 53.836 $ 54.055 $ 46.966 14.6%
February $ 60.203 $ 60.422 $ 45.834 31.4%
January $ 58.357 $ 58.575 $ 46.053 26.7%
-------- -------- -------- -----
1st Quart. $172.396 $173.052 $138.853 24.2%
-------- -------- -------- -----
Year $725.758 $727.459 $617.583 17.5%
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