 |
|
| A Personal Message - Jun. 20, 2006 |
|
I must begin by thanking everyone who shared their thoughts and prayers with me and my family on the loss of my Dad. I received countless messages, mostly from people I do not know, and even more impressive, most are from people my Dad never met in person. I will touch more on that later in this note.
I want to fill everyone in on what actually happened to my Dad, since many were asking. He passed away on Tuesday, June 13, 2006, sometime in the early morning. The cause of death was from complications due to a tear in his aorta. However, we are as certain as we can be that he died in peace and without pain. We had no idea that he had any heart problems so this was sudden and shocking. But the emails and letters my family has received have been an enormous help. I want to share one of those emails from a man named Jim Livingston of South Carolina. Keep in mind my father had never met Jim prior to this.
Dear Gillespie Family,
Though a stranger to you I am grieved to hear of your loss.
In 2003, I met Doug when I responded to his free commentary trial offer he pitched on the Prudent Bear website. Soon after I ran into a problem with my company provided 401K. As a union officer, I was tasked to look into the situation. I turned to Doug for assistance with an email that attempted to explain my problem. The very next day, I was shocked when Doug called me at work to obtain a greater understanding of my problem.
Within in the week, Doug introduced me to Mr. Johann Gouws, Expert Pension Consultant, from Portland, Maine. After corresponding with Johann by telephone, email, and mail my union president insisted on employing Johann's services. My job was to sell the services of Johann to a 500 man bargaining unit.
To make a long story short, Local 330 agreed to employ Johann. Johann met with my company and Local 330 achieved its objectives.
Doug not only impacted my local union of 500, but his assistance improved the lives of an additional 400 administrative staff, and as a dividend, I attribute my relationship with Doug as a contributing factor in uniting 13 unions (3000+ members) from across the United States.
Please accept my condolences,
Jim Livingston
Chief Steward
SPFPA Local 330
Aiken, SC
To say that hearing stories like this helps my family is a gross understatement. There were many, many people who expressed similar thoughts and experiences, a lot of them having absolutely nothing to do with the financial markets. To discover what my Dad did for people and how he spent hours on the phone with complete strangers was very moving. It also made me laugh a bit, as he could talk endlessly on the phone about many subjects. It also teaches a lesson that just picking up the phone and calling someone to talk and listen can lead to things much greater than simply a nice conversation or new friendship.
While prognosticating on the financial markets was his passion and livelihood, there was much more to my Dad than that. He possessed varied interests and talents. Among them were a love of classical music; playing the piano; politics; listening to talk radio; fly fishing; and watching sports. But the thing that most stands out in my mind is my Dad's intangible talent for being able to discuss basically any topic, and being able to communicate with anyone from any background. He could mesh and fit in with anyone from a doctor, lawyer or Wall St. trader, to a farmer, carpenter or teacher. I do not know how he gained the copious knowledge he had, but it is certainly something I envied about him. He could talk to people from any walk of life and make them feel comfortable. I think he gained knowledge of a lot of things from just knowing so many people and being willing to listen. He loved just meeting people and hearing their stories, thoughts, problems and point of view.
I remember a few years ago we were at the wake of a friend who had died tragically young. The loss was painful for everyone, but obviously unbearable for her family. I noticed something about my father that night. The young woman’s grandparents were sitting alone, while people gave condolences to her parents and spoke solemnly amongst themselves. My dad quickly figured out they were her grandparents and made sure to go sit with them, introduce himself, and try as best he could to just be human to them. They were engaged in conversation soon thereafter and it was not about bad things. He spoke of where they were from and anything that took their minds off the horrible situation. I do not think most people in the room had any idea that they were the grandparents, but my father quickly surmised it and made it a point to console and just talk to them, since they seemed to be alone with their grief. As menial as that may sound, I was proud of him that night, although in typical father/son fashion I neglected to tell him that. I neglected to tell him a lot of things I now wish that I had, but every mistake we make in life can be rectified by learning from it and sharing it with others. I shall never err again in not telling the people I care about how I feel. Many of us have heard that a bunch of times, but I can now say for sure that it is a true adage, and I implore everyone reading this to do the same.
One more "topic" I would like to add about who my Dad was to me involves one of my greatest passions, and that is sports. I had the privilege of being able to play football, basketball and baseball from 1st grade thru 8th grade, then 4 years of high school football and basketball, followed by a combined 4 years of college football at a junior college in NY and Monmouth University in NJ. I can honestly say right now that I only remember him missing 3 games in all those years—once when he was away on business and twice when I was in college, when he listened to the games on the radio. There might have been a couple of other times I am forgetting, but right now I can only recall those 3 times. He would even show up to my practices! And I do not just mean in grade school where it might be considered normal, but he would show up to my high school football practices! At the time I could not have been more upset about that, but right now I can’t remember why. But as the years went by I realized it was because he loved me and was proud of me, and he was savoring and cherishing every minute of my sports career that he could.
Let’s do some quick math: 1st grade thru senior year in college is 16 years. For 8 of those years I played 3 sports. Figure an average of say 15 games for each sport each year, which works out to 45 games per year. That gets us to 360 games right there. Than basketball and football for 4 years of high school means about 10 games each year for football and about 25 each year for hoops. That adds another 140 games which gets us to 500 games. 4 years of college football multiplied by 10 games each year gets us to a total of 540 games. I am not even including the summer league games which he would attend, and I played summer baseball and basketball for a bunch of years. He even made the hour plus ride from Ho-Ho-Kus to West Point to watch me play a game in summer camp! And we played 4 games a day for a week, so it was not a special event. But to him, watching me perform was always special. And as I said he almost never missed an opportunity to see me play. It got to a point where I could not get in the proper mental state of mind before a game until I knew he was there.
My college football career gave my dad a great sense of pride and also contributed to some special time together for him and my Mom. Whether it was the hour long ride down the Garden State Parkway to Monmouth or to various colleges in the Northeast for road games, they would take the drive, see some nice scenery, check out an eating establishment and than watch the game. I would always look forward to seeing them afterward and relished in the joy it gave my parents, but specifically in the joy it gave my Dad. He loved watching Monmouth University football; even after I graduated he listened to almost every game on the radio. He was a true fan.
For those that do not know, I have a sister, Blythe. My sister has a unique intelligence and sense of humor not unlike our father. Her favorite time with our dad was spent standing next to him at the piano while he played expertly by ear, singing her heart out while he pounded the keys. Although this letter is more about sharing who my Dad was and relaying some of my personal thoughts, I have to mention that my Dad also loved Blythe tremendously and was always very proud of her (of course especially so when she shared his political views). My Dad found the same pride and joy in watching her succeed with her individual strengths as he did with me and mine. She passes on her thanks to everyone who wrote in or read our dad's stuff as well. The same goes for my wonderful saint of a mom. Her name is Patricia and she was married to my father for 38 years. She is the definition of the word "strong" and always, always stood by my Dad no matter what. That is what marriage is all about and I have tremendous respect and admiration for her. My father loved her very much and clearly to me, out of all the smart things he did in his life, marrying my mom is at the top of that list.
As for the markets, it was no secret that my Dad was pretty concerned. Some folks label him a "perma bear" but I can tell you that could not be further from the truth. In the weeks after the 87 crash I know my Dad pounded the table to folks locally to buy the market. That proposition worked out well on many different timeframes. I distinctly remember him getting bullish in the late Winter of 2003 after the first part of this secular bear market took place. The street was finally starting to get bearish after 3 years of blood, but my Dad was out in front of it and was within weeks of bottom ticking it. The rally to follow was something nice to be a part of. But clearly my dad was a bear at heart and I cannot blame him. The point of writing this is not to talk about the current climate, but the reality of the situation is that there are some serious issues going forward, and those issues will be hard to resolve without some more meterial weakness in stock prices and probably the dollar. In fact I am almost sure that his last bearish call (which preceded this last decline) was not just a trading call, although it turned into one. I am pretty sure he was reasonably certain that the secular bear market that started in 2000 is back upon us. That does not mean a straight line down, it just means let’s watch things very closely as the situation favors that outcome in the months ahead. I cannot and will not speak for him, but I am fairly certain of that.
My Dad was the smartest person I have ever met. I have worked at a couple large brokerage houses and have seen many analysts who got paid millions to be part of the herd. They cannot hold a candle to my Dad. Luckily I was interested in investing at a young age, so his expertise and style rubbed off on me early. I am more of a "trader" at heart and I was happy that I think I got the chance to change his way of thinking a slight bit. Most "old timers" have trouble adjusting to new market climates and I was adamant to him about looking more at market psychology and "the tape" before making a call. A perfect example was the runup in treasury prices a couple of years ago. The timing coincided with our now current Fed Chairman (I am actually still laughing at that by the way), Mr. Bernanke, making his infamous "helicopter" remarks. I was on the front lines in the fixed income sales and trading world at the time and was actually pretty bullish most of the way down to 3-odd percent on the 10 yr. note. I told my dad although fundamentals and history may point one way, the market will react based on perception. It was more important to know how OTHER traders/investors would react than to think about what "should" happen. It was not too different than in 1999 when the stock casino was at its peak. Sure, it made tons of sense to be bearish, it was a mania, no two ways about it. But one had to recognize that it could go on for longer than expected and be "aware" of the climate. My point is that timing is everything in this game and I think I was starting to get through to my dad to incorporate more of a trader’s mind with his outstanding "investor’s" mind and macro sense. It’s a shame we will not get to see the marriage of those styles. The results might have been scary good.
But in the end he was a superstar in my mind and there will never ever be another Doug Gillespie, Sr. If I can be half as good as he was I will be very satisfied. This was his life. Watching, researching and predicting the markets. He genuinely loved it, and in order to be great at something one needs to actually love what they do. I am very sad that I will never get the chance to have one last market talk with him. I wish so badly he could be here right now and we could spend hours just shooting the “you know what” about it all. But God has a different plan for the time being and I respect that. Dad, you are my hero and were one of the only people who truly knew me and accepted me for exactly who I am and want to be. I will not let you down and you will forever be on my mind. I will always make sure I say to myself "what would dad do" before making any important decision, be it in the markets or in life. I love you and miss you so much already. Rest in Peace Dad, I am forever grateful.
A couple small things before I sign off. First, I am meeting soon with John Williams whom many of you know. John is another outstanding mind in this business and worked closely with my father. Together we will come up with a plan for segueing my dad’s site into whatever may be, and of course we will properly broadcast what those plans are. In the meantime if anyone has any immediate concerns about their subscription, etc. please do not hesitate to write me @ douggillespie57@yahoo.com. Be assured I will answer every email.
Lastly, although we are not asking for any donations, several people have inquired about sending a gift in my dad's name. I thought it best (and I wholeheartedly also feel My Dad would want this), that if you want to do something on his behalf you please donate to the Monmouth University Football team. As stated above, this is where I played football and graduated from and I assure you the coaching staff is made up of quality individuals, many of them being good friends of mine. Any gift would be used in a proper way to better and further the program, something my Dad was very supportive and excited about. Any donation would be tax deductible and you will receive proper documentation. The address is:
Monmouth University Football Office
c/o Head Coach Kevin Callahan
Monmouth University. 400 Cedar Avenue
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
Thanks again to everyone and may God bless you and your families.
Sincerely,
Douglas R. Gillespie Jr.
|
|
|
|
|
|