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Commentaries from Last Three Months

No. 621: March Housing Starts, Industrial Production  subscription required   April, 16th, 2014
• First-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Contracted at Annualized Pace of 30%, Down by 4% Year-to-Year
• February-March Production Jump Ran Counter to Weak Durable Goods Orders
• Fair Shot at First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction
No. 620: March CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   April, 15th, 2014
• First-Quarter 2014 Real Retail Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 1.6%
• Unadjusted March CPI-U Inflation of 0.6% Was Squashed to 0.2%, Hit Hard by Seasonal Adjustments for Third Month
• March Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.4% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Average Hourly Earnings Dropped 0.3% in March, But Average Weekly Earnings Rose by 0.6%
No. 619: March Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  subscription required   April, 14th, 2014
• First-Quarter Retail Sales Contracted Net of Likely Inflation
• Shifting and Unreported Seasonal Factor Changes Boosted Headline Numbers in Advance of the Annual Benchmark Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
No. 618: March Producer Price Index  subscription required   April, 11th, 2014
• March PPI Jumps Unexpectedly in Its Unstable Restructuring
• Updated PayrollEmployment Trend and Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments
No. 617: SPECIAL REPORT: 2014 ShadowStats Hyperinflation Report — Second Installment  subscription required   April, 8th, 2014
• Economic Reality versus Illusion: No Recovery, Just Plunge, Stagnation and Renewed Plunge
• Re-Intensifying Downturn Already Underway
• Confluence of Negative Surprises, Including New Business and Systemic Woes, Should Hit U.S. Dollar and Spike Inflation
• Hyperinflation to Intensify Unfolding Depression
• Gold as a Store-of-Wealth and Safe-Haven Remains Primary Hedge for Maintaining Purchasing Power of Wealth and Assets
No. 616: March Employment and Unemployment  subscription required   April, 4th, 2014
• March Payroll Jobs Increase of 192,000 Was Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• Payroll and Unemployment Numbers Remain of Horrendous Quality, Generally Not Comparable With Earlier Reporting
• March Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.7% in March
No. 615: February Trade Deficit and Construction Spending  subscription required   April, 3rd, 2014
• Trade-Deficit Deterioration Should Hit First-Quarter GDP Growth Hard
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Quarterly Showing Since Fourth-Quarter 2012
• February Construction Spending Showed Ongoing Stagnation
No. 614: SPECIAL COMMENTARY (Revised No. 587 of January 7, 2014)  subscription required   April, 2nd, 2014
• Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Asset
No. 613: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision  subscription required   March, 28th, 2014
• Incomplete and Inadequate, Minimal Revisions to Industrial Production Left Negative Economic Outlook Intact
• Aggregate Net Upside Revision of 0.3% to Series Was in Context of Some Activity Being Shifted from Early-2012 into Late-2012, 2013
• Usual New Information for 2012 Was “Unavailable”
No. 612: GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales  subscription required   March, 27th, 2014
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise;
First-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains Likely
• Real Durable Goods Orders on Track for 9.0% Annualized First-Quarter Contraction
• New Deflated and “Corrected” Durable Goods Series Confirm No Recovery
• New Homes Sales Down Year-to-Year for Second Month, Pattern Not Seen Since Series Trough in 2011
No. 611: February Median Household Income, Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   March, 20th, 2014
• It’s the Lack of Liquidity, Not the Weather
• Median Household Income Continued Its Low-Level Stagnation
• For Second Consecutive Quarter, Existing-Home Sales Are Plummeting at Nearly a 25% Annualized Pace
No. 610: February CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  subscription required   March, 18th, 2014
• Strongest Recession Signal Since Eve of the Economic Collapse
• Real Retail Sales on Track for 4% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• Housing Starts on Track for 34% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• For Second Month, Unadjusted Monthly 0.4% CPI Inflation Was Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• February Annual Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Earnings Down 0.2% in February
No. 609: February Industrial Production, PPI  subscription required   March, 17th, 2014
• February Production Effectively Was Stagnant, Net of Continued Unseasonable Weather Effects
• For Third Month, Strong PPI Goods Inflation Was Offset by Weak Services Inflation
• Last Three Months of PPI Inflation Annualized to 5.1% for Goods (Traditional Series) Versus 0.7% for “Final Demand” Goods and Services (New Series)
No. 608: February Retail Sales  subscription required   March, 13th, 2014
• February Retail Sales Rose by 0.27%, But that Was After a 0.41% Downward Revision to January’s Sales
• Sales Are on Track for Annualized 2.5% First-Quarter Contraction, Before Inflation Adjustment
• Shifting Seasonal Factors Appear to Be Boosting Headline Retail Growth
No. 607: February Employment and Unemployment, January Trade  subscription required   March, 7th, 2014
• Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
• Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
• February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February
No. 606: Preliminary U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2013 Fiscal Conditions  subscription required   March, 6th, 2014
• 2013 GAAP-Based U.S. Deficit Was About $6.2 Trillion
No. 605: Global Political Risks, January Construction Spending  subscription required   March, 5th, 2014
• Global Political Tensions Offer Increased Risk of U.S. Dollar Sell-Off
• Minimal January Gain in Construction Spending Was Not Significant; Inflation-Adjusted Series Remained Stagnant
No. 604: GDP Revision, GAAP-Based Federal Accounting  subscription required   February, 28th, 2014
• Third-Quarter GDP Downside Revision Was Consistent with Same Reports Signaling a First-Quarter 2014 Contraction
• Renewed Economic Downturn Would Balloon the Budget Deficit
• 2013 GAAP-Financial Reporting for U.S. Government Published; Fiscal Conditions Remain a Disaster
No. 603: January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales  subscription required   February, 27th, 2014
• Durable Goods Orders in Downturn
• Statistically Indistinguishable from January 2013, January 2014 “5-1/2 Year High” in New-Home Sales Still Was 65% Below Pre-Recession Peak
• At 1-1/2 Year Low, Existing-Home Sales Fell Sharply— Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year—37% Below Pre-Recession High
No. 602: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   February, 20th, 2014
• Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
• January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
• Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
No. 601: January Housing Starts, PPI  subscription required   February, 19th, 2014
• Unstable Housing Starts Showed a Corrective Plunge in January
• January PPI Inflation Was Capped by the Service Sector
No. 600: January Industrial Production  subscription required   February, 14th, 2014
• Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
• January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
• First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely
No. 599: January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision  subscription required   February, 13th, 2014
• Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
• Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
• Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions
No. 598: January Employment, Unemployment and Employment Benchmark Revision, M3  subscription required   February, 8th, 2014
• As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
• Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels
• Renewed Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
• January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Slowed to 3.0% in January
No. 597: December Trade Deficit, Construction Spending  subscription required   February, 6th, 2014
• December Trade Deterioration Could Knock 0.6% off GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Gain Was Insignificant in December, Even with Large Downside Revisions to November and October
No. 596: Fourth-Quarter 2013 GDP  subscription required   January, 30th, 2014
• Particularly Unreliable Economic Data
• 2013 Annual GDP Growth Slowed to 1.9% from 2.8% in 2012
• Growth Bloated by Continuing Excess-Inventory Build-Up
No. 595: Fed Policy, Household Income, Durable Goods, Home Sales, Money Supply Revisions  subscription required   January, 28th, 2014
• Seen Again: U.S. Dollar Has Lost Safe-Haven Status
• Ongoing Fed Tapering Likely to Stall, Reverse
• Money Growth Shows Mounting Systemic Stress
• December New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders Hit by Corrective, Broad-Based Pullbacks and Downside Revisions
• December Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Low
No. 594: December Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   January, 23rd, 2014
• Not Quite as Rosy as the Headlines, Fourth-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Crashed at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 27.9%
• December and November Existing-Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low
• Home Sales Declined Year-to-Year for a Second Month
No. 593: December Industrial Production and Housing Starts  subscription required   January, 17th, 2014
• Production Gain Indicated Intensifying Inventory Problem
• December Housing Starts Pulled Back from November Nonsense; Minimal Year-to-Year Growth of 1.6% Was Statistically Insignificant

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