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Commentaries from Last Three Months
No. 416: Payrolls, Unemployment and Revisions, M3, PCE Deflator
February, 3rd, 2012
February, 3rd, 2012
• Basic Economic Outlook Unaltered by Stronger Labor Data
• January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago
• January Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.1% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up
• January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago
• January Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.1% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up
No. 415: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales
January, 27th, 2012
January, 27th, 2012
• Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8%
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Still Show Stagnation
• Fed’s New PCE Inflation Target Is Inconsistent with Plans for Ongoing Easing
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Still Show Stagnation
• Fed’s New PCE Inflation Target Is Inconsistent with Plans for Ongoing Easing
No. 414: Hyperinflation Special Report 2012
January, 25th, 2012
January, 25th, 2012
• U.S. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Moves Ever Closer
• U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
• Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
• Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same
• U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
• Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
• Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same
No. 413: December CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales
January, 19th, 2012
• Patterns of Slowing Growth Have Re-Emerged
• Inflation from High Oil Prices Still Impacting Broad Economy
• 2011 Average Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• 2011 Average Annual Wholesale Inflation: 6.1% (PPI)
• Perils of Poor-Quality Inflation Data and Bad Assumptions
January, 19th, 2012 • Patterns of Slowing Growth Have Re-Emerged
• Inflation from High Oil Prices Still Impacting Broad Economy
• 2011 Average Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• 2011 Average Annual Wholesale Inflation: 6.1% (PPI)
• Perils of Poor-Quality Inflation Data and Bad Assumptions
No. 412: December Retail Sales, November Trade Balance
January, 13th, 2012
January, 13th, 2012
• Make-or-Break Month for Retailers Was Flat-to-Minus, Both Before and Likely After Adjustment for Inflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Retail Sales and Trade Data Should Dampen 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Outlook
• Worse-Than-Expected Retail Sales and Trade Data Should Dampen 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Outlook
No. 411: December Employment and Unemployment
January, 6th, 2012
January, 6th, 2012
• Seasonal-Adjustment Problems Spiked Jobs Growth, Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Artificially Lowered Unemployment Rates
• December Jobs Reading Remained Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• December Unemployment: 8.5% (U.3), 15.2% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Tops 3.0% for First Time in 28 Months
• December Jobs Reading Remained Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• December Unemployment: 8.5% (U.3), 15.2% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Tops 3.0% for First Time in 28 Months
FLASH UPDATE: December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem
January, 6th, 2012
January, 6th, 2012
• Seasonal-Adjustment Problem Inflated December’s 200,000 Payroll Gain by 42,000
No. 410: Special Commentary, GAAP-Based 2011 U.S. Financial Data
December, 28th, 2011
December, 28th, 2011
• Actual 2011 Federal Deficit Topped $5.0 Trillion
• U.S. Government Debt and Obligations Top $80 Trillion
• Long-Term U.S. Insolvency/Hyperinflation Remain Virtual Certainty
• U.S. Government Debt and Obligations Top $80 Trillion
• Long-Term U.S. Insolvency/Hyperinflation Remain Virtual Certainty
No. 409: Revised GDP, November Durable Goods, New Home Sales
December, 23rd, 2011
December, 23rd, 2011
• GDI Indicates No U.S. Economic Growth in Either Second- or Third-Quarter 2011
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation
• Treasury Releases 2011 GAAP-Based Financial Report on U.S. Government
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation
• Treasury Releases 2011 GAAP-Based Financial Report on U.S. Government
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update
December, 22nd, 2011
No. 408: November Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales
December, 21st, 2011
December, 21st, 2011
• 3.5 Million Home Sales Just Disappeared
• Housing Starts Still Bottom Bouncing
• Housing Starts Still Bottom Bouncing
No. 407: November CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales Industrial Production
December, 16th, 2011
• Consumer Financial Distress Hampered Retail Sales and Production
• Nonsensical Hype Over Regularly Mis-Adjusted Jobless Claims
• High Oil Prices Still Inflating Broad Economy
• November’s Annual Inflation: 3.4% (CPI-U), 3.8% (CPI-W), 11.0% (SGS)
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge
December, 16th, 2011 • Consumer Financial Distress Hampered Retail Sales and Production
• Nonsensical Hype Over Regularly Mis-Adjusted Jobless Claims
• High Oil Prices Still Inflating Broad Economy
• November’s Annual Inflation: 3.4% (CPI-U), 3.8% (CPI-W), 11.0% (SGS)
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge
No. 406: November Retail Sales, Payroll Tax Receipts
December, 13th, 2011
December, 13th, 2011
• Faltering Tax Receipts Show Consumer Income Taking A New Hit
• November Retail Sales Change Not Meaningful
• November Retail Sales Change Not Meaningful
No. 405: October Trade Balance
December, 9th, 2011
December, 9th, 2011
• October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price Variations
• Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price Variations
No. 404: Special Notice
December, 5th, 2011
December, 5th, 2011
• Treasury Delays Release of Government’s GAAP-Based Financial Statements Until Christmas Eve
No. 403: Labor Data, Consumer Confidence, M3, Systemic-Solvency and Euro Crises
December, 4th, 2011
December, 4th, 2011
• There Is No Sudden Economic Recovery, Just Bad-Quality Numbers and Deteriorating Labor Conditions
• Latest Jobs Level Still Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• November Unemployment: 8.6% (U.3), 15.6% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth at 2.7% in November
• Potential Euro Disintegration Is Nothing Like the Looming Dollar Collapse
• Latest Jobs Level Still Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• November Unemployment: 8.6% (U.3), 15.6% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth at 2.7% in November
• Potential Euro Disintegration Is Nothing Like the Looming Dollar Collapse
NOTICE: Commentary No. 403 to be published December 3rd.
December, 2nd, 2011
December, 2nd, 2011
The Economy Is Not Suddenly Recovering / November M3 up About 2.7%
No. 402: GDP Revision, October Durable Goods and Existing Home Sales
November, 23rd, 2011
November, 23rd, 2011
• Headline Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Growth Collapsed with Suggestion of 0.8% Contraction for Third-Quarter
• Slowing Annual Growth in Durable Goods Orders
• Existing Home Sales Bottom-Bounce
• Once Again, U.S. Government Signals Lack of Fiscal Concerns
• Slowing Annual Growth in Durable Goods Orders
• Existing Home Sales Bottom-Bounce
• Once Again, U.S. Government Signals Lack of Fiscal Concerns
No. 401: Underlying Economic Reality, October Housing Starts
November, 17th, 2011
• Housing Starts Continued Three-Year Pattern of Bottom-Bouncing
• Economic Recovery Never Happened; Hyped Gains Were Based on Gimmicked Inflation Adjustments
• Current Downturn Already Exceeds Duration of Great Depression’s First Down-Leg
November, 17th, 2011 • Housing Starts Continued Three-Year Pattern of Bottom-Bouncing
• Economic Recovery Never Happened; Hyped Gains Were Based on Gimmicked Inflation Adjustments
• Current Downturn Already Exceeds Duration of Great Depression’s First Down-Leg
No. 400: Budget Deficit Reality, October CPI, Industrial Production
November, 16th, 2011
November, 16th, 2011
• GAAP-Based 2011 Federal Deficit Likely Within Five- to Seven-Trillion Dollar Range
• Effects of High Oil Prices Still Spreading in Broad Economy
• October’s Annual Inflation: 3.5% (CPI-U), 3.9% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Gained in October But the Series Share Inflation-Adjustment Issues
• Effects of High Oil Prices Still Spreading in Broad Economy
• October’s Annual Inflation: 3.5% (CPI-U), 3.9% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Gained in October But the Series Share Inflation-Adjustment Issues
No. 399: October Retail Sales, PPI
November, 15th, 2011
November, 15th, 2011
• Retail Sales Gain Not Statistically Meaningful
• PPI Inflation Showed High Oil Price Effects Still Spreading in Broad Economy
• PPI Inflation Showed High Oil Price Effects Still Spreading in Broad Economy
No. 398: September Trade Deficit
November, 10th, 2011
November, 10th, 2011
• September Trade Data Suggest Minimal Upside Contribution to Pending GDP Revision
• U.S. Fiscal Disaster Surpasses Any Problems Seen With Major Trading Partners
• Pending Special Commentaries
• U.S. Fiscal Disaster Surpasses Any Problems Seen With Major Trading Partners
• Pending Special Commentaries