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Commentaries from Last Three Months
No. 439: April Industrial Production, Housing Starts
May, 16th, 2012
• Unusually Unstable Production Reporting
• Housing Starts Stagnation at Slightly Higher Plateau
May, 16th, 2012 • Unusually Unstable Production Reporting
• Housing Starts Stagnation at Slightly Higher Plateau
No. 438: PUBLIC COMMENT ON INFLATION MEASUREMENT
May, 15th, 2012
Public commentary on inflation measurement.
No. 437: April CPI, Real Earnings, Retail Sales, Euro
May, 15th, 2012
• “Core” CPI-U Inflation Hits Cycle High
• April Year-to-Year Inflation Softens: 2.3% (CPI-U), 2.4% (CPI-W), 9.9% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings in Ongoing Year-to-Year Decline
• Retail Sales Were Stagnant, Statistically Insignificant
May, 15th, 2012 • “Core” CPI-U Inflation Hits Cycle High
• April Year-to-Year Inflation Softens: 2.3% (CPI-U), 2.4% (CPI-W), 9.9% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings in Ongoing Year-to-Year Decline
• Retail Sales Were Stagnant, Statistically Insignificant
No. 436: March Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, April PPI
May, 11th, 2012
• Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• PPI Contraction Due to Seasonal-Factor Suppression of Higher Energy Prices
• Net of Federal Student Loans, Consumer Credit Is Near Cycle Low
• Gold Remains Key Hedge Against Oncoming Troubles
May, 11th, 2012 • Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• PPI Contraction Due to Seasonal-Factor Suppression of Higher Energy Prices
• Net of Federal Student Loans, Consumer Credit Is Near Cycle Low
• Gold Remains Key Hedge Against Oncoming Troubles
No. 435: April Employment/Unemployment, Money Supply and Velocity, Systemic Stress,
May, 4th, 2012
May, 4th, 2012
• For Second Month, Household-Survey Employment Fell as Payroll Growth Faltered
• April Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Growth Weakened in April as Velocity Rose
• New Indicator Shows Intensifying Systemic Stress
• Impaired Construction Spending Continued
• April Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Growth Weakened in April as Velocity Rose
• New Indicator Shows Intensifying Systemic Stress
• Impaired Construction Spending Continued
No. 434: Unpublished Payroll Data, Household Income
May, 2nd, 2012
May, 2nd, 2012
• Unpublished Payroll Employment Numbers
• March Household Income Sputters
• Clarifying Some Misperceptions
• March Household Income Sputters
• Clarifying Some Misperceptions
No. 433: Retail Sales Benchmark, March PCE Deflator, Systemic Stress
April, 30th, 2012
April, 30th, 2012
• Retail Sales Benchmark Revision Showed Weaker Historical Growth
• March PCE Deflator Closer to Fed’s Target
• Indications of Intensifying Systemic Stress
• March PCE Deflator Closer to Fed’s Target
• Indications of Intensifying Systemic Stress
No. 432: First-Quarter 2012 GDP
April, 27th, 2012
April, 27th, 2012
• First-Quarter GDP Growth Not Statistically Significant
• Recovery Is an Illusion Created by Use of Artificially-Low Inflation
• Recovery Is an Illusion Created by Use of Artificially-Low Inflation
No. 431: March Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales
April, 25th, 2012
April, 25th, 2012
• Drop in March Durable Goods Orders Reflected Normal Volatility, But Inflation-Adjusted Level Was 23.4% Below Pre-2007 Recession High
• Protracted Low-Level Stagnation Continued for March Home Sales
• Protracted Low-Level Stagnation Continued for March Home Sales
No. 430: March Industrial Production and Housing Starts
April, 17th, 2012
• Industrial Production Unchanged for Second Month
• Housing Starts in 40th Month of Historically-Low-Level Stagnation,
Following 2006-to-2008 Collapse in Activity
April, 17th, 2012 • Industrial Production Unchanged for Second Month
• Housing Starts in 40th Month of Historically-Low-Level Stagnation,
Following 2006-to-2008 Collapse in Activity
SPECIAL COMMENTARY. No. 429: Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales
April, 16th, 2012
April, 16th, 2012
• Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant
• First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income Increasingly Constrained
• Sustainable Economic Growth Is Not Possible Without Underlying Growth in Income and Credit
• First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income Increasingly Constrained
• Sustainable Economic Growth Is Not Possible Without Underlying Growth in Income and Credit
No. 428: March CPI and PPI, February Trade Balance
April, 13th, 2012
• CPI Headline Inflation of 0.3% Was 0.8% Not Seasonally Adjusted
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 2.9% (CPI-W), 10.3% (SGS)
• Broad-Based Inflation Reflected in Stronger “Core” Inflation
• February Trade Improvement Should Boost GDP Expectations
April, 13th, 2012 • CPI Headline Inflation of 0.3% Was 0.8% Not Seasonally Adjusted
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 2.9% (CPI-W), 10.3% (SGS)
• Broad-Based Inflation Reflected in Stronger “Core” Inflation
• February Trade Improvement Should Boost GDP Expectations
No. 427: March Labor Data, M3 and February Construction Spending
April, 6th, 2012
April, 6th, 2012
• Headline Jobs Gain and Unemployment Rate Decline Were Statistically Insignificant
• March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
• Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
• QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
• M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification
• March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
• Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
• QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
• M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification
SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 426: Economic Update: Mired in A Protracted Downturn
March, 30th, 2012
March, 30th, 2012
• GNP Growth at 1.8% versus 3.0% GDP
• Real Durable Goods Orders 10% Below Levels Seen in 2000
• Shenanigans in Industrial Production Benchmark Masked Small Downside Revisions to Recent Activity
• Recession Deeper than Previously Estimated
• Real Durable Goods Orders 10% Below Levels Seen in 2000
• Shenanigans in Industrial Production Benchmark Masked Small Downside Revisions to Recent Activity
• Recession Deeper than Previously Estimated
No. 425: February Housing Starts, New and Existing Home Sales
March, 23rd, 2012
March, 23rd, 2012
• Activity in Housing and Construction Remains Stagnant Near Historic Lows
No. 424: February CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production
March, 16th, 2012
March, 16th, 2012
• February CPI Was Shy of Reflecting Full Impact of Gasoline Prices
• February’s Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Monthly Gain Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Volatile Monthly Production Numbers Sputtered And Stalled Once Again
• February’s Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Monthly Gain Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Volatile Monthly Production Numbers Sputtered And Stalled Once Again
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update
March, 15th, 2012
No. 423: February Retail Sales
March, 13th, 2012
March, 13th, 2012
• Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain
No. 422: February Employment, Unemployment and M3, January Trade Balance
March, 9th, 2012
March, 9th, 2012
• Payrolls Regain Pre-2001 (Not Pre-2007) Recession Levels
• February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
• Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew
• February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
• Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew
No. 421: GDP Revision, January PCE Deflator and Durable Goods Orders
March, 1st, 2012
March, 1st, 2012
• GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise, Yet 4th-Quarter No Longer Is Comparable with Prior Periods
• Income Revised to Show Ongoing Surging Salaries and Wages of “Unknown” Nature
• Fed’s Inflation Target (PCE Deflator) Is A Poorly Regurgitated CPI Measure
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Net of Plunging Aircraft Orders
• Income Revised to Show Ongoing Surging Salaries and Wages of “Unknown” Nature
• Fed’s Inflation Target (PCE Deflator) Is A Poorly Regurgitated CPI Measure
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Net of Plunging Aircraft Orders
No. 420: Monetary Base, January Home Sales
February, 24th, 2012
February, 24th, 2012
• Monetary Base Surge to Record High Suggests Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• January Home Sales Numbers Continued Bottom-Bouncing
• Unstable Seasonal Adjustments in Existing Home Sales?
• January Home Sales Numbers Continued Bottom-Bouncing
• Unstable Seasonal Adjustments in Existing Home Sales?
No. 419: January CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Housing Starts
February, 17th, 2012
February, 17th, 2012
• Annual “Core” Inflation Rose for 15th Straight Month
• Year-to-Year January Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Headline CPI and PPI Inflation Rates Understated Due to Unstable Seasonal Factors
• Year-to-Year January Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Headline CPI and PPI Inflation Rates Understated Due to Unstable Seasonal Factors
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update
February, 17th, 2012
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update
February, 17th, 2012