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Commentaries from Last Three Months

No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions  subscription required   July, 23rd, 2014
• Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision
No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   July, 22nd, 2014
• Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week’s GDP Reporting and Revisions
No. 642: June Housing Starts  subscription required   July, 17th, 2014
• Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May
No. 641: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index  subscription required   July, 16th, 2014
• Shifting Production Detail Indicated Still Weaker First-Quarter GDP, Suggested Slowing Second-Quarter Inventory Growth (a GDP Negative)
• Volatile PPI Resumed Upswing in Inflation Reporting
No. 640: June Retail Sales  subscription required   July, 15th, 2014
• Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact
No. 639: Review of the Deepening Economic and Pending U.S. Dollar and HyperinflationCrises  subscription required   July, 11th, 2014
• Outlook Continues for Massive U.S. Dollar Sell-Off, Pending Hyperinflation
• U.S. Economy on Track for Downside Shocks that Could Roil Markets and Provide Political Cover for Reinvigorated Quantitative Easing
• Fed Has Monetized 76% of Net Issuance of Publicly Held Treasury Debt, Since January 2013 Expansion of QE3; Pace of Fed Monetization at 88% Year-to-Date 2014
No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income  subscription required   July, 3rd, 2014
• Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   June, 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  subscription required   June, 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  subscription required   June, 16th, 2014
• Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions  subscription required   June, 12th, 2014
• May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  subscription required   June, 6th, 2014
• Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity  subscription required   June, 4th, 2014
• New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate
No. 631: Revised First-Quarter GDP  subscription required   May, 29th, 2014
• It’s the Consumer, Not the Weather!
• Weakening Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boost Gold
• First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Fell by 1.0%;Gross National Product Tumbled by 2.1%; Gross Domestic Income Dropped by 2.3%
• Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.3%
• Pending Trade Data and Revisions Should Help to Set Negative Tone for Second-Quarter GDP and the GDP Benchmark Revision
No. 630: April Durable Goods Orders  subscription required   May, 27th, 2014
• Defense Orders Dominated April Headline Gain in Durable Goods
• New Orders Activity Continued in General Pattern of Stagnation
• Emerging Recessionary Patterns
No. 629: April New- and Existing-Home Sales, Revised GDP Contraction?  subscription required   May, 23rd, 2014
• First-Quarter GDP Contraction in Next Week’s Revision?
• First Contemporary Reporting of a GDP Contraction Since the Formal 2007 Recession
• Despite Minimal and Statistically-Insignificant Headline Monthly Gains, Annual Contractions Continued for Both New- and Existing-Home Sales
No. 628: April Housing Starts  subscription required   May, 16th, 2014
• Housing-Starts Activity Remained Stagnant
• 13.2% Headline Gain in Starts Was in Normal Range of Volatility and Not Statistically Meaningful
• “Renewed” Broad Economic Downturn Continues to Unfold
No. 627: April CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   May, 15th, 2014
• Headline Reporting Showed Weakening Economy with Rising Inflation
• April 2014 Production Plunged 0.6%, Real Retail Sales Fell 0.2%, Real Earnings Down 0.1%
• Production Drop Reflected Some Reporting Catch Up
• Soft Sales and Earnings Pummeled by Inflation
• April Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)
No. 626: April Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  subscription required   May, 13th, 2014
• CPI-Adjusted April Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Increasingly Unstable Retail Sales Reporting, Despite Recent Benchmarking
• Impaired Consumer Liquidity Continues to Constrain Consumption
No. 625: March Trade Deficit  subscription required   May, 6th, 2014
• Negative Quarterly Trade Estimate Locked-In, No Implied Revision to Flat GDP Reporting
No. 624: Employment and Unemployment, Construction Spending, Retail-Sales Benchmark, M3  subscription required   May, 2nd, 2014
• April Unemployment Numbers Showed Deepening Economic Disaster
• Unemployed Dropped by 733,000, but Employed Dropped by 73,000, and Labor Force Fell by 806,000
• February-to-April Payroll Jobs Gains Were Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• April Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.3% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Revised Retail Sales Growth Was Slower 2011-to-Date; Downside Corrections to Prior GDP Reporting Loom in July
• Construction Spending Remained Stagnant
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 4.0% in April
No. 623: First-Quarter 2014 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  subscription required   April, 30th, 2014
• Not Annualized, First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.03%
• Annualized GDP Change of Plus 0.1% Was Minus 1.0%,
Net of Questionable Healthcare Spending
• Headline Weakness in GDP Reflected Consumer Liquidity Problems, Not Weather; Adverse Weather Had Offsetting Impacts
No. 622: March Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   April, 24th, 2014
• First-Quarter 2014 Durable Goods Order Contracted at
Annualized Quarterly Pace of 7.2%
• First-Quarter New-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 9.8%,
Down by 3.2% Year-to-Year
• First-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 24.8%,
Down by 6.6% Year-to-Year

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