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Commentaries from Last Three Months

No. 651: July 2014 CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Monetary Base  subscription required   August, 19th, 2014
• Real Retail Sales Contracted for Second Month, Signaled Deepening Recession
• Real Earnings and Retail Sales Both Fell Below Second-Quarter Levels
• July Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 1.9%% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)
• Monetary Base Explodes to Record High
• Quality of Housing-Starts Reporting Sinks to New Low
No. 650: July 2014 Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  subscription required   August, 18th, 2014
• Production Report Showed Somewhat Weaker Second-Quarter Activity Amidst Unusual Revision Patterns
• Construction Inflation Surged in the July
No. 649: July 2014 Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  subscription required   August, 13th, 2014
• Headline July Retail Sales Were Boosted to “Unchanged,” Thanks to Downside Prior-Period Revisions
• Net of Inflation, Real July Sales Likely Fell for Second Month
• Real July Sales Were Below Second-Quarter Average
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
No. 648: June 2014 Trade Balance, Monetary Conditions  subscription required   August, 6th, 2014
• Despite Narrowing in June Trade Deficit GDP Growth Remains Subject to Trade-Related Downside Revision
• Monetary Base at All-Time High
• Pace of Fed Monetization at 91% Year-to-Date 2014
• July M3 Annual Growth at Five-Year High of 4.7%
No. 647: July Employment and Unemployment, June Construction Spending  subscription required   August, 1st, 2014
• Minimally Weaker-Than-Consensus Labor Numbers— Unremarkable Except for the Regular, Horrendous Reporting Quality
• July Unemployment: 6.2% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Construction Spending—Stagnation with a Recent Downside Bias
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income  subscription required   July, 30th, 2014
• Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not
No. 645: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales  subscription required   July, 25th, 2014
• Despite Durable Goods Orders Turning Lower Year-to-Year, General Pattern Showed Ongoing Stagnation
• In Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to Prior Months, June 2014 New-Homes Sales Fell Month-to-Month,
Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions  subscription required   July, 23rd, 2014
• Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision
No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   July, 22nd, 2014
• Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week’s GDP Reporting and Revisions
No. 642: June Housing Starts  subscription required   July, 17th, 2014
• Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May
No. 641: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index  subscription required   July, 16th, 2014
• Shifting Production Detail Indicated Still Weaker First-Quarter GDP, Suggested Slowing Second-Quarter Inventory Growth (a GDP Negative)
• Volatile PPI Resumed Upswing in Inflation Reporting
No. 640: June Retail Sales  subscription required   July, 15th, 2014
• Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact
No. 639: Review of the Deepening Economic and Pending U.S. Dollar and HyperinflationCrises  subscription required   July, 11th, 2014
• Outlook Continues for Massive U.S. Dollar Sell-Off, Pending Hyperinflation
• U.S. Economy on Track for Downside Shocks that Could Roil Markets and Provide Political Cover for Reinvigorated Quantitative Easing
• Fed Has Monetized 76% of Net Issuance of Publicly Held Treasury Debt, Since January 2013 Expansion of QE3; Pace of Fed Monetization at 88% Year-to-Date 2014
No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income  subscription required   July, 3rd, 2014
• Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   June, 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  subscription required   June, 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  subscription required   June, 16th, 2014
• Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions  subscription required   June, 12th, 2014
• May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  subscription required   June, 6th, 2014
• Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity  subscription required   June, 4th, 2014
• New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate
No. 631: Revised First-Quarter GDP  subscription required   May, 29th, 2014
• It’s the Consumer, Not the Weather!
• Weakening Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boost Gold
• First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Fell by 1.0%;Gross National Product Tumbled by 2.1%; Gross Domestic Income Dropped by 2.3%
• Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.3%
• Pending Trade Data and Revisions Should Help to Set Negative Tone for Second-Quarter GDP and the GDP Benchmark Revision
No. 630: April Durable Goods Orders  subscription required   May, 27th, 2014
• Defense Orders Dominated April Headline Gain in Durable Goods
• New Orders Activity Continued in General Pattern of Stagnation
• Emerging Recessionary Patterns
No. 629: April New- and Existing-Home Sales, Revised GDP Contraction?  subscription required   May, 23rd, 2014
• First-Quarter GDP Contraction in Next Week’s Revision?
• First Contemporary Reporting of a GDP Contraction Since the Formal 2007 Recession
• Despite Minimal and Statistically-Insignificant Headline Monthly Gains, Annual Contractions Continued for Both New- and Existing-Home Sales

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