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Commentaries from Last Three Months

No. 658: Annual Income Survey, August PPI  subscription required   September, 16th, 2014
• Still No Relief Pending for the Economy or the Financial System
• Changes in 2013 Real Median Household Income and Income Dispersion Were Not Statistically Significant
• Stagnant Real Median Income Held at Post-Recession Low, Down 8.0% from Pre-Recession Peak, Lowest Since 1994, Below Levels of Late-1960s and Early-1970s
• Income Variance Held at Historic High, Suggestive of Still-Greater Economic and Financial Crises Ahead
• August Annual PPI Inflation Notched Higher
No. 657: August Industrial Production  subscription required   September, 15th, 2014
• August Production Decline Was on Top of Downside Revisions to July Activity
• Plunge in Auto Manufacturing Highlighted Poor-Quality Seasonal Adjustments and Difficulties in Inventory Accounting
No. 656: 2013 Consumer Expenditures, August Retail Sales, Gold  subscription required   September, 12th, 2014
• U.S. Economy Re-Entered Recession in 2013, Indicated by the BLS’s Annual Consumer Expenditure Survey
• 2013 Total Money Income Fell Even Before Inflation Adjustment
• Physical Gold, a Life Preserver That Could See Action Soon
• Day-to-Day Timing of a Great Financial Disaster Is a Tough Call, But the Alarm Bells Are Sounding
• Strong Headline Retail Sales Gain Was Not Statistically Significant
No. 655: August Payroll Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  subscription required   September, 5th, 2014
• Payroll Jobs Growth Faltered in Context of Unusual Seasonal Factor Shifts
• August Unemployment Rate: 6.1% (U.3), 12.0% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Downward Notch in Unemployment Rate Reflected Further Loss of Labor Force, Not the Unemployed Gaining Employment
• U.3 Rate Was Less than 979 Unemployed People Shy of Holding at 6.2%
• August 2014 Civilian Employment Still Shy of Pre-Recession Peak
• August Money Supply M3 at 4.6% Annual Growth
No. 654: July Median Household Income, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending  subscription required   September, 4th, 2014
• Neither Economic Boom nor Recovery Is Underway; Fundamentals Are Not in Place to Fuel or to Support Such a Circumstance
• Latest Median Household Income Reading Confirmed Severely Impaired Consumer and Economy
• Trade Deficit Continued to Widen Year-to-Year Despite Prior-Period Revisions and Unusual Seasonal Factors
• Net of Inflation, Construction Spending Surge Was Stagnation
No. 653: First Revision to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP  subscription required   August, 28th, 2014
• Economic Bluff and Bluster versus Reality, Politics and Elections
• Minimal Upside Revision to Second-Quarter GDP Left Gimmicked Growth Even More Heavily Overstated
• Underlying Reality Remains a Severely Impaired Consumer and Economy
• Monthly Economic Series to Turn Increasingly Negative
No. 652: July 2014 Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   August, 26th, 2014
• 22.6% Gain in July Durable Goods Orders Was Just 0.8%, Net of an Irregular 318.0% Surge in Commercial-Aircraft Orders
• Booked Years in Advance, Commercial-Aircraft Orders Have Negligible Impact on Near-Term Economic Activity
• July Existing-Home Sales in Ninth Month of Annual Decline
• July New-Home Sales Held in Pattern of Stagnation, Amidst Ongoing Reporting Instabilities
No. 651: July 2014 CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Monetary Base  subscription required   August, 19th, 2014
• Real Retail Sales Contracted for Second Month, Signaled Deepening Recession
• Real Earnings and Retail Sales Both Fell Below Second-Quarter Levels
• July Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 1.9%% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)
• Monetary Base Explodes to Record High
• Quality of Housing-Starts Reporting Sinks to New Low
No. 650: July 2014 Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  subscription required   August, 18th, 2014
• Production Report Showed Somewhat Weaker Second-Quarter Activity Amidst Unusual Revision Patterns
• Construction Inflation Surged in the July
No. 649: July 2014 Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  subscription required   August, 13th, 2014
• Headline July Retail Sales Were Boosted to “Unchanged,” Thanks to Downside Prior-Period Revisions
• Net of Inflation, Real July Sales Likely Fell for Second Month
• Real July Sales Were Below Second-Quarter Average
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
No. 648: June 2014 Trade Balance, Monetary Conditions  subscription required   August, 6th, 2014
• Despite Narrowing in June Trade Deficit GDP Growth Remains Subject to Trade-Related Downside Revision
• Monetary Base at All-Time High
• Pace of Fed Monetization at 91% Year-to-Date 2014
• July M3 Annual Growth at Five-Year High of 4.7%
No. 647: July Employment and Unemployment, June Construction Spending  subscription required   August, 1st, 2014
• Minimally Weaker-Than-Consensus Labor Numbers— Unremarkable Except for the Regular, Horrendous Reporting Quality
• July Unemployment: 6.2% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Construction Spending—Stagnation with a Recent Downside Bias
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income  subscription required   July, 30th, 2014
• Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not
No. 645: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales  subscription required   July, 25th, 2014
• Despite Durable Goods Orders Turning Lower Year-to-Year, General Pattern Showed Ongoing Stagnation
• In Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to Prior Months, June 2014 New-Homes Sales Fell Month-to-Month,
Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions  subscription required   July, 23rd, 2014
• Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision
No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   July, 22nd, 2014
• Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week’s GDP Reporting and Revisions
No. 642: June Housing Starts  subscription required   July, 17th, 2014
• Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May
No. 641: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index  subscription required   July, 16th, 2014
• Shifting Production Detail Indicated Still Weaker First-Quarter GDP, Suggested Slowing Second-Quarter Inventory Growth (a GDP Negative)
• Volatile PPI Resumed Upswing in Inflation Reporting
No. 640: June Retail Sales  subscription required   July, 15th, 2014
• Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact
No. 639: Review of the Deepening Economic and Pending U.S. Dollar and HyperinflationCrises  subscription required   July, 11th, 2014
• Outlook Continues for Massive U.S. Dollar Sell-Off, Pending Hyperinflation
• U.S. Economy on Track for Downside Shocks that Could Roil Markets and Provide Political Cover for Reinvigorated Quantitative Easing
• Fed Has Monetized 76% of Net Issuance of Publicly Held Treasury Debt, Since January 2013 Expansion of QE3; Pace of Fed Monetization at 88% Year-to-Date 2014
No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income  subscription required   July, 3rd, 2014
• Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   June, 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  subscription required   June, 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth

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