Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Archived Commentaries Primers & Reports Search Text

Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months.


Not a Subscriber?

The majority of recent Commentaries are only viewable with an SGS Subscription, but all of our older Commentaries have been opened for all to read. To view these, use the menu below.


Commentaries from Last Three Months

No. 620: March CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   April, 15th, 2014
• First-Quarter 2014 Real Retail Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 1.6%
• Unadjusted March CPI-U Inflation of 0.6% Was Squashed to 0.2%, Hit Hard by Seasonal Adjustments for Third Month
• March Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.4% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Average Hourly Earnings Dropped 0.3% in March, But Average Weekly Earnings Rose by 0.6%
No. 619: March Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  subscription required   April, 14th, 2014
• First-Quarter Retail Sales Contracted Net of Likely Inflation
• Shifting and Unreported Seasonal Factor Changes Boosted Headline Numbers in Advance of the Annual Benchmark Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
No. 618: March Producer Price Index  subscription required   April, 11th, 2014
• March PPI Jumps Unexpectedly in Its Unstable Restructuring
• Updated PayrollEmployment Trend and Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments
No. 617: SPECIAL REPORT: 2014 ShadowStats Hyperinflation Report — Second Installment  subscription required   April, 8th, 2014
• Economic Reality versus Illusion: No Recovery, Just Plunge, Stagnation and Renewed Plunge
• Re-Intensifying Downturn Already Underway
• Confluence of Negative Surprises, Including New Business and Systemic Woes, Should Hit U.S. Dollar and Spike Inflation
• Hyperinflation to Intensify Unfolding Depression
• Gold as a Store-of-Wealth and Safe-Haven Remains Primary Hedge for Maintaining Purchasing Power of Wealth and Assets
No. 616: March Employment and Unemployment  subscription required   April, 4th, 2014
• March Payroll Jobs Increase of 192,000 Was Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• Payroll and Unemployment Numbers Remain of Horrendous Quality, Generally Not Comparable With Earlier Reporting
• March Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.7% in March
No. 615: February Trade Deficit and Construction Spending  subscription required   April, 3rd, 2014
• Trade-Deficit Deterioration Should Hit First-Quarter GDP Growth Hard
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Quarterly Showing Since Fourth-Quarter 2012
• February Construction Spending Showed Ongoing Stagnation
No. 614: SPECIAL COMMENTARY (Revised No. 587 of January 7, 2014)  subscription required   April, 2nd, 2014
• Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Asset
No. 613: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision  subscription required   March, 28th, 2014
• Incomplete and Inadequate, Minimal Revisions to Industrial Production Left Negative Economic Outlook Intact
• Aggregate Net Upside Revision of 0.3% to Series Was in Context of Some Activity Being Shifted from Early-2012 into Late-2012, 2013
• Usual New Information for 2012 Was “Unavailable”
No. 612: GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales  subscription required   March, 27th, 2014
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise;
First-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains Likely
• Real Durable Goods Orders on Track for 9.0% Annualized First-Quarter Contraction
• New Deflated and “Corrected” Durable Goods Series Confirm No Recovery
• New Homes Sales Down Year-to-Year for Second Month, Pattern Not Seen Since Series Trough in 2011
No. 611: February Median Household Income, Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   March, 20th, 2014
• It’s the Lack of Liquidity, Not the Weather
• Median Household Income Continued Its Low-Level Stagnation
• For Second Consecutive Quarter, Existing-Home Sales Are Plummeting at Nearly a 25% Annualized Pace
No. 610: February CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts  subscription required   March, 18th, 2014
• Strongest Recession Signal Since Eve of the Economic Collapse
• Real Retail Sales on Track for 4% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• Housing Starts on Track for 34% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• For Second Month, Unadjusted Monthly 0.4% CPI Inflation Was Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• February Annual Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Earnings Down 0.2% in February
No. 609: February Industrial Production, PPI  subscription required   March, 17th, 2014
• February Production Effectively Was Stagnant, Net of Continued Unseasonable Weather Effects
• For Third Month, Strong PPI Goods Inflation Was Offset by Weak Services Inflation
• Last Three Months of PPI Inflation Annualized to 5.1% for Goods (Traditional Series) Versus 0.7% for “Final Demand” Goods and Services (New Series)
No. 608: February Retail Sales  subscription required   March, 13th, 2014
• February Retail Sales Rose by 0.27%, But that Was After a 0.41% Downward Revision to January’s Sales
• Sales Are on Track for Annualized 2.5% First-Quarter Contraction, Before Inflation Adjustment
• Shifting Seasonal Factors Appear to Be Boosting Headline Retail Growth
No. 607: February Employment and Unemployment, January Trade  subscription required   March, 7th, 2014
• Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
• Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
• February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February
No. 606: Preliminary U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2013 Fiscal Conditions  subscription required   March, 6th, 2014
• 2013 GAAP-Based U.S. Deficit Was About $6.2 Trillion
No. 605: Global Political Risks, January Construction Spending  subscription required   March, 5th, 2014
• Global Political Tensions Offer Increased Risk of U.S. Dollar Sell-Off
• Minimal January Gain in Construction Spending Was Not Significant; Inflation-Adjusted Series Remained Stagnant
No. 604: GDP Revision, GAAP-Based Federal Accounting  subscription required   February, 28th, 2014
• Third-Quarter GDP Downside Revision Was Consistent with Same Reports Signaling a First-Quarter 2014 Contraction
• Renewed Economic Downturn Would Balloon the Budget Deficit
• 2013 GAAP-Financial Reporting for U.S. Government Published; Fiscal Conditions Remain a Disaster
No. 603: January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales  subscription required   February, 27th, 2014
• Durable Goods Orders in Downturn
• Statistically Indistinguishable from January 2013, January 2014 “5-1/2 Year High” in New-Home Sales Still Was 65% Below Pre-Recession Peak
• At 1-1/2 Year Low, Existing-Home Sales Fell Sharply— Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year—37% Below Pre-Recession High
No. 602: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   February, 20th, 2014
• Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
• January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
• Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
No. 601: January Housing Starts, PPI  subscription required   February, 19th, 2014
• Unstable Housing Starts Showed a Corrective Plunge in January
• January PPI Inflation Was Capped by the Service Sector
No. 600: January Industrial Production  subscription required   February, 14th, 2014
• Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
• January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
• First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely
No. 599: January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision  subscription required   February, 13th, 2014
• Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
• Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
• Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions
No. 598: January Employment, Unemployment and Employment Benchmark Revision, M3  subscription required   February, 8th, 2014
• As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
• Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels
• Renewed Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
• January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Slowed to 3.0% in January
No. 597: December Trade Deficit, Construction Spending  subscription required   February, 6th, 2014
• December Trade Deterioration Could Knock 0.6% off GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Gain Was Insignificant in December, Even with Large Downside Revisions to November and October
No. 596: Fourth-Quarter 2013 GDP  subscription required   January, 30th, 2014
• Particularly Unreliable Economic Data
• 2013 Annual GDP Growth Slowed to 1.9% from 2.8% in 2012
• Growth Bloated by Continuing Excess-Inventory Build-Up
No. 595: Fed Policy, Household Income, Durable Goods, Home Sales, Money Supply Revisions  subscription required   January, 28th, 2014
• Seen Again: U.S. Dollar Has Lost Safe-Haven Status
• Ongoing Fed Tapering Likely to Stall, Reverse
• Money Growth Shows Mounting Systemic Stress
• December New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders Hit by Corrective, Broad-Based Pullbacks and Downside Revisions
• December Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Low
No. 594: December Existing-Home Sales  subscription required   January, 23rd, 2014
• Not Quite as Rosy as the Headlines, Fourth-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Crashed at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 27.9%
• December and November Existing-Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low
• Home Sales Declined Year-to-Year for a Second Month
No. 593: December Industrial Production and Housing Starts  subscription required   January, 17th, 2014
• Production Gain Indicated Intensifying Inventory Problem
• December Housing Starts Pulled Back from November Nonsense; Minimal Year-to-Year Growth of 1.6% Was Statistically Insignificant
No. 592: December CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  subscription required   January, 16th, 2014
• Inflation Picks Up as the Economy Slows Down
• December Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.1% in Industry’s Flagship Month of December; Slowing Annual Growth Signaled Recession
• Real Weekly Earnings Declined in December

This material is provided under the Terms of Use. Use of this material constitutes agreement to those terms.
Privacy Policy |  Contact Us 
Copyright 2003-2014. Shadow Government Statistics, American Business Analytics & Research LLC.