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OPEN Commentaries from July 2015

No. 739: Second-Quarter GDP and Benchmark Revision, Velocity of Money  July, 31st, 2015
• U.S. Economic Activity Was Just Downgraded; Historical GDP Numbers Were Revised Meaningfully Lower; Second-Half 2012 Now Is Shown at Near-Recession
• Post-2007 Economic History Slowly Is Taking on a Revised Pattern of a Multiple-Dip Economic Collapse
• Unfolding “New” Recession Remains Very Much in Play
• Despite Below-Consensus 2.3% Second-Quarter Growth, Benchmarked GDP Level Was Below Prior Reporting for First-Quarter GDP
• First-Quarter GDP Revised to Small Gain from Minor Decline, but Broader First-Quarter GNP Remained in Headline Contraction
No. 738: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales, Household Income  July, 27th, 2015
• Complacency on the U.S. Economy and the U.S. Dollar Could Be Shaken in the Week and Month Ahead
• Durable Goods Orders in a Pattern of Intensifying Monthly and Quarterly Year-to-Year Contractions
• Second-Quarter Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) in Steepest Annual Decline Since Economic Collapse
• Second-Quarter New-Home Sales Fell 7.3% (-7.3%)
No. 737: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision, Pending GDP Revisions, Gold  July, 23rd, 2015
• Gold-Price Manipulations Likely Were Central-Bank Orchestrated; Underlying Reasons for Holding Gold Remain Basic and Strong
• Revamped Production Fell by 1.0% (-1.0%) in First-Half 2015, Now Down by 0.2% (-0.2%) and 1.7% (-1.7%) Respectively in First-Quarter and Second-Quarter 2015
• Downwardly-Revised Manufacturing Activity No Longer Has Recovered Its Pre-Recession High
• Downside Benchmark Revisions to Industrial Production Locked-In General Downside Revisions to GDP Benchmarking
• New-Home Sales Hit a Post-Recession High but Remained Down by 24% (-24%) from Pre-Recession Peak
No. 736: June CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  July, 17th, 2015
• “New” Recession Remains in Play—a Virtual Certainty— But Broad Recognition of Same Still May Be a Couple of Months Out
• Real Earnings for All Private Employees Plunged in Second-Quarter 2015
• Inflation-Adjusted June Retail Sales Declined by 0.6% (-0.6%); Weakening Annual Growth Signaled Intensifying Recession
• Headline Annual CPI-U Inflation Turned Positive for First Time Since December 2014, Although Actual Annual Inflation Never Turned Negative
• June Annual Inflation: 0.1% (CPI-U), -0.4% (CPI-W), 7.7% (ShadowStats)
• June Housing Starts Remained in a Smoothed Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation, Despite Distorted Jump in Multiple-Unit Starts
• Second-Quarter Housing Starts Surged at an Annualized Pace of 87.4%, While Residential-Construction Employment Rose at an Annualized Pace of 0.5%?
No. 735: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  July, 15th, 2015
• Last Time Industrial Production Activity Was This Weak, The U.S. Economy Was in Collapse
• Second-Quarter Production Contracted at a 1.4% (-1.4%) Annualized Pace, First-Quarter Revised to 0.1% Annualized Gain (Effectively Unchanged)
• Annual Production Growth at Recession Level
• Production Series Subject to Massive Benchmark Revisions Next Week
• Higher Gasoline Prices Dominated June PPI Headline Inflation of 0.36%
No. 734: Nominal June Retail Sales, Financial Turmoil and Gold  July, 14th, 2015
• June Retail Sales Generated an Intensifying Recession Signal
• In the Context of Downside Revisions to April and May Retail Sales Activity, the “Unexpected” June Contraction of 0.3% (-0.3%) Should Rattle Expectations
• Rising Inflation Means an Even Greater Decline in Real June Retail Sales
• Mounting Global Financial and Economic Instabilities Suggest a Good Time to Batten Down the Hatches
No. 733: May Trade Deficit, June M3, Systemic Uncertainties  July, 7th, 2015
• Mounting Global Instabilities in a System Increasingly Out of Control
• May 2015 Trade Deficit Showed Minimal Deterioration; Advance-June Trade Estimate Should Rattle Second-Quarter GDP
• Headline June Reporting on Production and Retail Sales Also Should Soften GDP Expectations
• Late-Month Jump Pushed June M3 Annual Growth to 5.2%, Up from 5.0% in May
No. 732: June Employment and Unemployment, May Construction Spending  July, 2nd, 2015
• June Payrolls (Number of Jobs, Not People with Jobs) Rose by 223,000, But Number of People with Full-Time Employment Dropped by 349,000
• June Payroll Gain of 223,000 Was Just 163,000, Net of a Downside Revision of 60,000 Jobs to Overstated May Payrolls
• Bad News—Drop in Unemployment from 5.5% to 5.3% Reflected 375,000 Unemployed Disappearing from the Labor Force, Instead of Finding Gainful Employment
• June 2015 Unemployment: 5.3% (U.3), 10.5% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Revamped Construction-Spending Series, Net of Headline Inflation, Remained in Low-Level but Up-Trending Stagnation
• Weaker Residential Activity Offset Stronger Nonresidential Activity in Construction-Spending Benchmark Revisions

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