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No. 645: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales subscription required  July, 25th, 2014 • Despite Durable Goods Orders Turning Lower Year-to-Year, General Pattern Showed Ongoing Stagnation
• In Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to Prior Months, June 2014 New-Homes Sales Fell Month-to-Month,
Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions subscription required  July, 23rd, 2014 • Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision
No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales subscription required  July, 22nd, 2014 • Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week’s GDP Reporting and Revisions
No. 642: June Housing Starts subscription required  July, 17th, 2014 • Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May
No. 641: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index subscription required  July, 16th, 2014 • Shifting Production Detail Indicated Still Weaker First-Quarter GDP, Suggested Slowing Second-Quarter Inventory Growth (a GDP Negative)
• Volatile PPI Resumed Upswing in Inflation Reporting
No. 640: June Retail Sales subscription required  July, 15th, 2014 • Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact
No. 639: Review of the Deepening Economic and Pending U.S. Dollar and HyperinflationCrises subscription required  July, 11th, 2014 • Outlook Continues for Massive U.S. Dollar Sell-Off, Pending Hyperinflation
• U.S. Economy on Track for Downside Shocks that Could Roil Markets and Provide Political Cover for Reinvigorated Quantitative Easing
• Fed Has Monetized 76% of Net Issuance of Publicly Held Treasury Debt, Since January 2013 Expansion of QE3; Pace of Fed Monetization at 88% Year-to-Date 2014
No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income subscription required  July, 3rd, 2014 • Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales subscription required  June, 25th, 2014 • Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts subscription required  June, 17th, 2014 • When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) subscription required  June, 16th, 2014 • Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions subscription required  June, 12th, 2014 • May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 subscription required  June, 6th, 2014 • Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity subscription required  June, 4th, 2014 • New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate
No. 631: Revised First-Quarter GDP subscription required  May, 29th, 2014 • It’s the Consumer, Not the Weather!
• Weakening Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boost Gold
• First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Fell by 1.0%;Gross National Product Tumbled by 2.1%; Gross Domestic Income Dropped by 2.3%
• Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.3%
• Pending Trade Data and Revisions Should Help to Set Negative Tone for Second-Quarter GDP and the GDP Benchmark Revision
No. 630: April Durable Goods Orders subscription required  May, 27th, 2014 • Defense Orders Dominated April Headline Gain in Durable Goods
• New Orders Activity Continued in General Pattern of Stagnation
• Emerging Recessionary Patterns
No. 629: April New- and Existing-Home Sales, Revised GDP Contraction? subscription required  May, 23rd, 2014 • First-Quarter GDP Contraction in Next Week’s Revision?
• First Contemporary Reporting of a GDP Contraction Since the Formal 2007 Recession
• Despite Minimal and Statistically-Insignificant Headline Monthly Gains, Annual Contractions Continued for Both New- and Existing-Home Sales
No. 628: April Housing Starts subscription required  May, 16th, 2014 • Housing-Starts Activity Remained Stagnant
• 13.2% Headline Gain in Starts Was in Normal Range of Volatility and Not Statistically Meaningful
• “Renewed” Broad Economic Downturn Continues to Unfold
No. 627: April CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings subscription required  May, 15th, 2014 • Headline Reporting Showed Weakening Economy with Rising Inflation
• April 2014 Production Plunged 0.6%, Real Retail Sales Fell 0.2%, Real Earnings Down 0.1%
• Production Drop Reflected Some Reporting Catch Up
• Soft Sales and Earnings Pummeled by Inflation
• April Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)
No. 626: April Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity subscription required  May, 13th, 2014 • CPI-Adjusted April Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Increasingly Unstable Retail Sales Reporting, Despite Recent Benchmarking
• Impaired Consumer Liquidity Continues to Constrain Consumption
No. 625: March Trade Deficit subscription required  May, 6th, 2014 • Negative Quarterly Trade Estimate Locked-In, No Implied Revision to Flat GDP Reporting
No. 624: Employment and Unemployment, Construction Spending, Retail-Sales Benchmark, M3 subscription required  May, 2nd, 2014 • April Unemployment Numbers Showed Deepening Economic Disaster
• Unemployed Dropped by 733,000, but Employed Dropped by 73,000, and Labor Force Fell by 806,000
• February-to-April Payroll Jobs Gains Were Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• April Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.3% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Revised Retail Sales Growth Was Slower 2011-to-Date; Downside Corrections to Prior GDP Reporting Loom in July
• Construction Spending Remained Stagnant
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 4.0% in April
No. 623: First-Quarter 2014 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) subscription required  April, 30th, 2014 • Not Annualized, First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.03%
• Annualized GDP Change of Plus 0.1% Was Minus 1.0%,
Net of Questionable Healthcare Spending
• Headline Weakness in GDP Reflected Consumer Liquidity Problems, Not Weather; Adverse Weather Had Offsetting Impacts
No. 622: March Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales subscription required  April, 24th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Durable Goods Order Contracted at
Annualized Quarterly Pace of 7.2%
• First-Quarter New-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 9.8%,
Down by 3.2% Year-to-Year
• First-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 24.8%,
Down by 6.6% Year-to-Year
No. 621: March Housing Starts, Industrial Production subscription required  April, 16th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Contracted at Annualized Pace of 30%, Down by 4% Year-to-Year
• February-March Production Jump Ran Counter to Weak Durable Goods Orders
• Fair Shot at First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction
No. 620: March CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings subscription required  April, 15th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Real Retail Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 1.6%
• Unadjusted March CPI-U Inflation of 0.6% Was Squashed to 0.2%, Hit Hard by Seasonal Adjustments for Third Month
• March Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.4% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Average Hourly Earnings Dropped 0.3% in March, But Average Weekly Earnings Rose by 0.6%
No. 619: March Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity subscription required  April, 14th, 2014 • First-Quarter Retail Sales Contracted Net of Likely Inflation
• Shifting and Unreported Seasonal Factor Changes Boosted Headline Numbers in Advance of the Annual Benchmark Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
No. 618: March Producer Price Index subscription required  April, 11th, 2014 • March PPI Jumps Unexpectedly in Its Unstable Restructuring
• Updated PayrollEmployment Trend and Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments
No. 617: SPECIAL REPORT: 2014 ShadowStats Hyperinflation Report — Second Installment subscription required  April, 8th, 2014 • Economic Reality versus Illusion: No Recovery, Just Plunge, Stagnation and Renewed Plunge
• Re-Intensifying Downturn Already Underway
• Confluence of Negative Surprises, Including New Business and Systemic Woes, Should Hit U.S. Dollar and Spike Inflation
• Hyperinflation to Intensify Unfolding Depression
• Gold as a Store-of-Wealth and Safe-Haven Remains Primary Hedge for Maintaining Purchasing Power of Wealth and Assets
No. 616: March Employment and Unemployment subscription required  April, 4th, 2014 • March Payroll Jobs Increase of 192,000 Was Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• Payroll and Unemployment Numbers Remain of Horrendous Quality, Generally Not Comparable With Earlier Reporting
• March Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.7% in March
No. 615: February Trade Deficit and Construction Spending subscription required  April, 3rd, 2014 • Trade-Deficit Deterioration Should Hit First-Quarter GDP Growth Hard
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Quarterly Showing Since Fourth-Quarter 2012
• February Construction Spending Showed Ongoing Stagnation
No. 614: SPECIAL COMMENTARY (Revised No. 587 of January 7, 2014) subscription required  April, 2nd, 2014 • Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Asset
No. 613: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision subscription required  March, 28th, 2014 • Incomplete and Inadequate, Minimal Revisions to Industrial Production Left Negative Economic Outlook Intact
• Aggregate Net Upside Revision of 0.3% to Series Was in Context of Some Activity Being Shifted from Early-2012 into Late-2012, 2013
• Usual New Information for 2012 Was “Unavailable”
No. 612: GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales subscription required  March, 27th, 2014 • Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise;
First-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains Likely
• Real Durable Goods Orders on Track for 9.0% Annualized First-Quarter Contraction
• New Deflated and “Corrected” Durable Goods Series Confirm No Recovery
• New Homes Sales Down Year-to-Year for Second Month, Pattern Not Seen Since Series Trough in 2011
No. 611: February Median Household Income, Existing-Home Sales subscription required  March, 20th, 2014 • It’s the Lack of Liquidity, Not the Weather
• Median Household Income Continued Its Low-Level Stagnation
• For Second Consecutive Quarter, Existing-Home Sales Are Plummeting at Nearly a 25% Annualized Pace
No. 610: February CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts subscription required  March, 18th, 2014 • Strongest Recession Signal Since Eve of the Economic Collapse
• Real Retail Sales on Track for 4% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• Housing Starts on Track for 34% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• For Second Month, Unadjusted Monthly 0.4% CPI Inflation Was Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• February Annual Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Earnings Down 0.2% in February
No. 609: February Industrial Production, PPI subscription required  March, 17th, 2014 • February Production Effectively Was Stagnant, Net of Continued Unseasonable Weather Effects
• For Third Month, Strong PPI Goods Inflation Was Offset by Weak Services Inflation
• Last Three Months of PPI Inflation Annualized to 5.1% for Goods (Traditional Series) Versus 0.7% for “Final Demand” Goods and Services (New Series)
No. 608: February Retail Sales subscription required  March, 13th, 2014 • February Retail Sales Rose by 0.27%, But that Was After a 0.41% Downward Revision to January’s Sales
• Sales Are on Track for Annualized 2.5% First-Quarter Contraction, Before Inflation Adjustment
• Shifting Seasonal Factors Appear to Be Boosting Headline Retail Growth
No. 607: February Employment and Unemployment, January Trade subscription required  March, 7th, 2014 • Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
• Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
• February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February
No. 606: Preliminary U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2013 Fiscal Conditions subscription required  March, 6th, 2014 • 2013 GAAP-Based U.S. Deficit Was About $6.2 Trillion
No. 605: Global Political Risks, January Construction Spending subscription required  March, 5th, 2014 • Global Political Tensions Offer Increased Risk of U.S. Dollar Sell-Off
• Minimal January Gain in Construction Spending Was Not Significant; Inflation-Adjusted Series Remained Stagnant
No. 604: GDP Revision, GAAP-Based Federal Accounting subscription required  February, 28th, 2014 • Third-Quarter GDP Downside Revision Was Consistent with Same Reports Signaling a First-Quarter 2014 Contraction
• Renewed Economic Downturn Would Balloon the Budget Deficit
• 2013 GAAP-Financial Reporting for U.S. Government Published; Fiscal Conditions Remain a Disaster
No. 603: January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales subscription required  February, 27th, 2014 • Durable Goods Orders in Downturn
• Statistically Indistinguishable from January 2013, January 2014 “5-1/2 Year High” in New-Home Sales Still Was 65% Below Pre-Recession Peak
• At 1-1/2 Year Low, Existing-Home Sales Fell Sharply— Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year—37% Below Pre-Recession High
No. 602: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings subscription required  February, 20th, 2014 • Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
• January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
• Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
No. 601: January Housing Starts, PPI subscription required  February, 19th, 2014 • Unstable Housing Starts Showed a Corrective Plunge in January
• January PPI Inflation Was Capped by the Service Sector
No. 600: January Industrial Production subscription required  February, 14th, 2014 • Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
• January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
• First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely
No. 599: January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision subscription required  February, 13th, 2014 • Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
• Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
• Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions
No. 598: January Employment, Unemployment and Employment Benchmark Revision, M3 subscription required  February, 8th, 2014 • As With December, January’s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year’s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
• Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels
• Renewed Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
• January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Slowed to 3.0% in January
No. 597: December Trade Deficit, Construction Spending subscription required  February, 6th, 2014 • December Trade Deterioration Could Knock 0.6% off GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Gain Was Insignificant in December, Even with Large Downside Revisions to November and October
No. 596: Fourth-Quarter 2013 GDP subscription required  January, 30th, 2014 • Particularly Unreliable Economic Data
• 2013 Annual GDP Growth Slowed to 1.9% from 2.8% in 2012
• Growth Bloated by Continuing Excess-Inventory Build-Up
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No. 595: Fed Policy, Household Income, Durable Goods, Home Sales, Money Supply Revisions  January, 28th, 2014 • Seen Again: U.S. Dollar Has Lost Safe-Haven Status
• Ongoing Fed Tapering Likely to Stall, Reverse
• Money Growth Shows Mounting Systemic Stress
• December New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders Hit by Corrective, Broad-Based Pullbacks and Downside Revisions
• December Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Low
No. 594: December Existing-Home Sales  January, 23rd, 2014 • Not Quite as Rosy as the Headlines, Fourth-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Crashed at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 27.9%
• December and November Existing-Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low
• Home Sales Declined Year-to-Year for a Second Month
No. 593: December Industrial Production and Housing Starts  January, 17th, 2014 • Production Gain Indicated Intensifying Inventory Problem
• December Housing Starts Pulled Back from November Nonsense; Minimal Year-to-Year Growth of 1.6% Was Statistically Insignificant
No. 592: December CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  January, 16th, 2014 • Inflation Picks Up as the Economy Slows Down
• December Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.1% in Industry’s Flagship Month of December; Slowing Annual Growth Signaled Recession
• Real Weekly Earnings Declined in December
No. 591: December Producer Price Index and Redefined PPI Series  January, 15th, 2014 • December Headline PPI Surged 0.4% in Current Reporting, Up by Just 0.1% Based on What Will Be the New Series Next Month
• New and Expanded PPI Tends to Show Lower Inflation Amidst Higher Oil Prices
• The Old PPI Series Has the Better Leading Relationship to CPI
No. 590: December Retail Sales, Updated Consumer Liquidity Indicators  January, 14th, 2014 • Statistically-Insignificant 0.2% Gain in December Retail Sales Likely Was Flat-to-Down Net of Inflation
• December Activity Was Below Initial November Reporting With Earlier Numbers Revised Lower
• Annual Sales Growth Continued Its Signal for “New” Recession
• Consumers Constrained by Severe Structural Liquidity Problems
No. 589: December Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  January, 10th, 2014 • Jobs Loss or Jobs Gain, Either Is Possible Within the Reporting-Confidence Interval Around December Payrolls
• Revisions Show Headline Unemployment Changes Are Meaningless
• December Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 13.1% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year Growth Slows in December M3
No. 588: November Trade, Construction Spending, Revised Unemployment  January, 8th, 2014 • Plunge in Oil Imports Narrowed the Trade Deficit; Data Were Positive for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• November Construction Gain Was Statistically Insignificant, Yet, Earlier Numbers Were Revised Higher
• Revised Headline Unemployment Due on January 10th
No. 587: HYPERINFLATION 2014—THE END GAME BEGINS  January, 7th, 2014 • Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Assets
No. 586: November Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales  December, 24th, 2013 • Pattern of Stagnation Continued for Durable Goods Orders
• November New-Home Sales Reporting Remained Unstable
No. 585: Fed Policy, Gold, Economic Review, Existing-Home Sales, GDP Revision  December, 20th, 2013 • Fantasy Third-Quarter GDP Boom — Likely a Function of Impaired Data Gathering and Compilation
• Aberrant Spate of “Strong” Government Numbers in November — Similarly Impacted by the Government Shutdown
• November Existing Home Sales Fell Below Year-Ago Level
• Minimal “Tapering” Sets Stage for New Fed Chairman, Does Not Alter General Outlook
• Gold Remains Primary Hedge in the Year Ahead
No. 584: Residential Construction: Catch-Up Reporting on Housing Starts  December, 18th, 2013 • November Housing Starts Surge Was Nonsense—a Reporting Aberration— As Indicated by Building Permits
• Stagnating/Declining Housing Activity Otherwise Remained Intact
No. 583: November Consumer Price Index, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  December, 17th, 2013 • Year-to-Year Inflation Rose in November, Despite Weak Monthly Numbers
• November Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.1% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Gained 0.6% in November; Recession Signal Remained Intact
• Consumers Constrained by Real-Earnings Issues
No. 582: November Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)  December, 16th, 2013 • Strong Monthly Production Was in the Context of Slowing Annual Growth
• Despite Being a Coincident Indicator to GDP, Headline Production Just Topped Pre-Recession High for First Time, Lagging GDP by 11 Quarters
• Corrected for Understated Inflation, Production Has Not Recovered
• Producer Price Index Decline Reflected Lower Energy Prices
No. 581: November Retail Sales, Budget Agreement, Fed Policy  December, 12th, 2013 • No Effort to Address Long-Range Solvency Issues of the United States in Budget-Deficit Agreement
• Consumers Remain Strapped by Structural Liquidity Issues Despite Gain in November Retail Sales
No. 580: November Labor Data and M3, October Household Income  December, 6th, 2013 • Real Household Income Falls Slightly in October, Remaining Near Cycle-Low
• Shutdown Effects on October Labor Data, and Misreporting of Same, Are More than Reversed in Headline November Numbers
• Resulting Seasonal-Factor Distortions Weigh Heavily on Data Significance; Current Headline Labor Numbers Have Little Meaning
• November Unemployment: 7.0% (U.3), 13.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
No. 579: First Revision to Third-Quarter 2013 GDP  December, 5th, 2013 • “Booming” GDP Growth Not Reflected in Any Other Major Economic Indicator
• Involuntary Inventory Build-Up Spiked GDP Revision; Final Sales (GDP Less Inventory Change) Growth Revised to 1.9% from 2.0%
• Revised Headline Growth in Third-Quarter GDP Was Reported at 3.6%; GNP Was 3.9%; But GDI (the Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Was 1.4%
• Another Set of GDP Revisions in Two Weeks
No. 578: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, New Home Sales  December, 4th, 2013 • No Signs of a Growing Economy
• Intensifying Weakness in Revised Third-Quarter Trade and Construction Data Should Soften Third-Quarter GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Falters Despite Statistically-Insignificant October Gain
• New Home Sales Monthly Data Are Nonsense, Extreme Volatility and Revisions Leave Monthly Changes Meaningless
No. 577: 2013 Federal Deficit - Cash versus GAAP, Durable Goods Orders  November, 27th, 2013 • Irrespective of Gimmicked Narrowing of 2013 Cash-Based Federal Deficit, GAAP-Based Deficit Remains Uncontrolled and Uncontained
• Commercial Aircraft Orders Led Decline in Durable Goods Orders
No. 576: Residential Construction, Consumer Confidence  November, 26th, 2013 • Building Permits Showed No Recovery
• Consumer Confidence Declined Again in November
No. 575: Economic Review, October PPI  November, 21st, 2013 • October PPI Was Hit by Lower Energy Costs
• Imminent Official Recession Signaled by New Leading Indicator
• Broad Economy Never Recovered from Prior Downturn
No. 574: October CPI, Retail Sales, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing Home Sales  November, 20th, 2013 • Watch Out for the Dollar
• October Annual Inflation: 1.0% (CPI-U), 0.8% (CPI-W), 8.5% (ShadowStats)
• Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant; Recession Signal Remained Intact
• Official Real Earnings Declined in October
• Existing Home Sales Declined for the Month; Annual Growth Slowed Markedly
No. 573: October Industrial Production and Money Supply, September Trade Balance  November, 15th, 2013 • Production Activity Suggestive of Pending “New” Recession
• Trade Data Should Dampen Growth in Next GDP Revision
• October M3 Annual Growth at 4.4%
• Reflecting Recent Surge in Treasury Borrowings, Fed Has Monetized 75% of Net Issuance of Publicly-Held Federal Debt, Since January 1st
No. 572: October Employment and Unemployment  November, 8th, 2013 • Large Shift in August-October Period Seasonal Adjustments
Bloated Latest Payroll Reporting
• Loss of Long-Term Unemployed from Headline Labor Force
Boosted Alternate Unemployment Rate to New High
• Government-Shutdown Impact on October Unemployment Reporting
Masked by Misclassification and Seasonal-Adjustment Fiasco
• October Unemployment: 7.3% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 23.5% (ShadowStats)
No. 571: Third-Quarter GDP, Money Supply Velocity, September Household Income  November, 7th, 2013 • Error Margin Around GDP Growth of 2.8% Includes Zero
• GDP Gain Dominated by Involuntary Inventory Build-Up
• Third-Quarter M3 Velocity Was Stable; M2 Velocity Declined
• September Household Income Remained Near Cycle Low
No. 570: Economic Review, September CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  October, 30th, 2013 • Real Retail Sales Fell 0.3% Month-to-Month in September
• Official Data Indicate Slowing/Stagnating Third-Quarter GDP
• CPI-Based Social Security COLA Would Have Been Same With Chained-CPI
• September Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
No. 569: Consumer Liquidity, September Retail Sales, PPI  October, 29th, 2013 • Retail Sales Contraction Should Deepen After Inflation Adjustment
• PPI Pulled Lower by Plunging Food Prices?
• Real Durable Goods Orders Show No Economic Recovery
No. 568: September Industrial Production  October, 28th, 2013 • Production Jump Was Due to Irregular Surge in Utilities Usage
• Economy Remains in Stagnation/Renewed Downturn
No. 567: Hyperinflation Update, Durable Goods, Trade Deficit  October, 25th, 2013 • Hyperinflation in 2014
• Trade Data Should Have Negligible Impact on Initial Third-Quarter GDP Estimate
and on Expectations for Same
• Durable Goods Orders Remained Stagnant (Ex-Commercial Aircraft), Consistent with Renewed Economic Downturn
• BLS Will Count Furloughed Government Employees as Unemployed in Household Survey, but as Employed in Payroll Survey
No. 566: September Employment/Unemployment, August Construction Spending,  October, 22nd, 2013 • Weakening Trends Seen in Payrolls and Home Sales
• October Payroll Loss of Roughly 400,000 Remains Likely
• September Unemployment: 7.2% (U.3), 13.6% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Rising Costs Boosted Construction Spending
CORRECTED No. 565: Fiscal Crisis—Dollar Debasement  October, 18th, 2013 • Debt-Ceiling Concept Remains in Place After February 7th
• Chances Are Nonexistent for Meaningful Government Action to Address Issues of Longer-Range U.S. Sovereign Solvency
• General Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated
• Watch the Dollar!
No. 564: Government Negotiations, Labor Conditions, Consumer Credit and Sentiment  October, 11th, 2013 • Estimated Headline U.3 Unemployment Rates: 7.3% in September, 7.6% in October, versus August Actual of 7.3%
• Estimated Headline Payroll Changes, or Jobs Gains/Losses: 181,000 Gain in September, 430,000 Loss in October, versus August Gain of 169,000
• Consumer Credit and Sentiment Show Deteriorating Consumer Liquidity Circumstances
No. 563: Fiscal and Systemic-Liquidity Crises Update  October, 4th, 2013 • No More Tap Dancing on a Land Mine, The Administration Pulls Out a Couple of Hammers
• Message to the Global Markets: Long-Range Solvency Issues of the United States Will Not Be Addressed
• Stagnant in September, Monthly M3 Suggests Deepening Systemic-Liquidity Distress; Annual Growth in Monetary Base Rising at Fastest Pace Since 2008 Crisis
No. 562: Shutdown of the Federal Government  October, 1st, 2013 • Renewed Battle Over U.S. Sovereign Solvency
• President’s Working Group on Financial Markets Likely in Play
• Government Economic-Reporting Shutdown Excludes Data from Privately-Owned Federal Reserve
No. 561: Payroll Benchmark Revision, August Household Income, Revised Second-Quarter GDP  September, 26th, 2013 • Bad Numbers? Just Change the Reporting Methodology!
• Economic “Growth” Created by Statistical Redefinitions, Not by Consumer or Business Demand
• 2013 Benchmark Payroll Employment Revision of Minus 124,000 Changed to Plus 345,000 with Redefinitions by BLS
• GDP Revision Was No More Than Statistical Noise
• Annual GDP Growth Has Slowed to Typical Pre-Recession Levels
• Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Lows
No. 560: August Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales  September, 25th, 2013 • Durable Goods Orders Activity Stagnated in August
• Despite Statistically-Insignificant Upside Blip, New-Home Sales Continued in Renewed Contraction
No. 559: Hyperinflation Update, FOMC  September, 19th, 2013 • Fed Is Trapped In the End Game for the U.S. Dollar
• Panic of 2008 Still Is Playing Out
• Hyperinflation Forecast Remains in Place
No. 558: 2012 Household Income, August Housing Starts  September, 18th, 2013

• At An 18-Year Low, 2012 Real Median Household Income Was Below Levels Seen in 1968 through 1974
• 2012 Income Variance Hit Record High,Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Systemic Instabilities That Led to 2008 Crisis Still Have to Be Worked Through
• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn or Stagnation
No. 557: August CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  September, 17th, 2013 • Liquidity Constraints Impair Consumption, Prevent Recovery
• Poverty Report Confirmed Falling Household Income
• Year-to-Year “Core” CPI Inflation in Upswing
• August Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
No. 556: August Industrial Production, FOMC Meeting  September, 16th, 2013 • Production Activity Remained Consistent with Renewed Economic Downturn
• Neither Banking-System nor Economic Developments Suggest Fed “Tapering,”
But Heavily-Managed Market Expectations Indicate Near-Term Action
No. 555: August Retail Sales and Producer Price Index  September, 13th, 2013 • Below-Consensus Retail Sales Activity Continues, With Growth Due to Rising Inflation Not to Rising Demand
• Producer Price Index Gain Still Shy of Full Oil-Price Impact
No. 554: August Employment and Unemployment, M3  September, 6th, 2013 • August Labor Conditions Showed a Deteriorating Economy
• Instead of Being Matched Happily with Rising Employment, Falling Unemployment Reflected a Shrinking Labor Force with Declining Employment
• Payroll Boost of 169,000 was 95,000 Net of Revisions
• August Unemployment: 7.3% (U.3), 13.7% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Slowed Markedly in August
No. 553: July Trade Deficit, Construction Spending  September, 4th, 2013 • July Trade Data Remain in State of Flux
• Reported Gain in July Construction Spending Was Not Statistically Significant
• Brief Update on New Liquidity Numbers
• A Spurious Payroll-Data Blip for August?
No. 552: GDP Revision, Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Updates  August, 29th, 2013 • GDP Revision Reflected Previously Discussed Trade-Flow Distortions
• Well Removed from Real-World Activity, GDP Numbers Remain Nonsensical; There Never Was a Recovery and There Is None Pending
• With Consumer Liquidity Issues Deepening, Broad U.S. Economic Activity Is in Renewed Contraction
• Fed Pullback on QE3 Remains Unlikely, Amidst Suggestions of Intensifying Banking-System Stress
No. 551: July New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales  August, 26th, 2013 • In Ongoing Stagnation, Durable Goods Orders Are Suggestive of Pending Downturn
• New-Home Sales Are in Renewed Contraction
• Existing-Home Sales Jump But Remain of Questionable Quality
No. 550: July Housing Starts, U.S. Fiscal-Policy Issues, Updated Outlooks  August, 16th, 2013

• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn
• Outlook Is Increasingly Bleak for Second- and Third-Quarter Economic Growth, Irrespective of GDP Reporting Nonsense
• Fiscal-Policy Issues Come to the Fore in September
No. 549: July CPI, PPI, Nominal and Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production, RealEarnings  August, 15th, 2013 • No Economic Recovery Here
• Industrial Production on Brink of Showing Formal New Recession
• For Second Month, Rising Retail Sales Reflected Rising Prices,
Not Rising Consumer Demand
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Fell for Third Month and Year-to-Year
• July Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.6% (ShadowStats)
No. 548: June Trade Balance  August, 6th, 2013 • Unusually Large Reduction in June Trade Deficit Likely Reflected Port of New York Disruptions
• Headline Trade Deficit Will Add Upside Pressure to First Revision of Second-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 547: July Employment and Unemployment, M3, June Construction  August, 2nd, 2013 • July Jobs Gain and Unemployment Decline Were Not Meaningful
• Payroll Boost of 162,000 was 136,000 Net of Revisions
• July Unemployment: 7.4% (U.3), 14.0% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Construction Spending Remained Stagnant
• Annual M3 Growth Picked Up Slightly
No. 546: GDP and Revisions, Mounting Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Issues  August, 1st, 2013 • Federal Reserve Monetization Hits 103.4% of Net U.S. Treasury Debt Issuance in 2013
• Redefined GDP Moved Ever Further from Real-World Experience, Beset by Expanded Inflation Shenanigans
• Second-Quarter GDP Reflected Patterns of Sharply Slowing Activity
No. 545: June Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Pending GDP Revisions  July, 25th, 2013 • New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Exaggerated by Downside Revisions, Changes Otherwise Were Statistically Insignificant
• Irregular Surge in Commercial Aircraft Orders Dominated Monthly Gain in Durable Goods Orders
• GDP Reporting and Revisions Could Offer Some Downside Surprises
No. 544: June Housing Starts, Economy, Updated Summary Outlook  July, 17th, 2013 • Second-Quarter Housing Starts Plunged at Annualized Quarterly Rate of 31.2%, Dimming the Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP
• Economic Growth Otherwise Has Slowed in Second-Quarter 2013
• Immigration Legislation Would Exacerbate Serious Economic and Fiscal Issues Facing the United States
No. 543: June CPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  July, 16th, 2013 • Slowing Growth with Rising Inflation
• Real Retail Sales and Real Earnings Contracted in June
• Annualized Quarterly Production Growth Slowed to 0.59% from 4.23%
• June Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.8% (CPI-U), 1.8% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
No. 542: June Retail Sales  July, 15th, 2013 • June Retail Sales Gain Reflected Little More Than Rising Inflation
No. 541: June Producer Price Index, Consumer Credit, Seasonal Adjustments  July, 12th, 2013 • Annual June PPI Inflation Hit 15-Month High of 2.5%
• 0.8% Monthly PPI Jump Reflected Reversal in Negative Seasonals for Energy
• Consumer Credit Growth Still Limited to Federal Student Loans
No. 540: Updated No. 539  July, 8th, 2013 • With Fed Monetization of Treasury Debt at 90.5%, Money Supply Growth Patterns Suggest Banking-System Stress
• Using Consistent Seasonals, June Payrolls Rose About 160,000
• Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
• Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
• Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 247,000
• June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)
No. 539: June Employment and Unemployment  July, 5th, 2013 • Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
• Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
• Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 247,000
• June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)
• Payroll Gains Were Warped Heavily by Inconsistent Seasonal Factors
No. 538: May Trade and Construction Spending  July, 3rd, 2013 • May Trade Deterioration Will Be A Drag on Second-Quarter 2013 GDP Growth
• Construction Benchmark Suggests Downside Revisions to 2012 GDP
No. 537: Gold Price and Market Instabilities  June, 30th, 2013 • Central Banks Dumping U.S. Treasuries at Fastest Pace Since 2011 Budget Crisis
• Market Turmoil Reflects Shifting Sentiments and Systemic Distortions
• Underlying Fundamentals for Gold and Silver Remain Extremely Strong
• Gold Remains the Most-Solid Hedge Against Looming Dollar and Inflation Crises
No. 536: Gold, GDP Revision,  June, 26th, 2013 • May Household Income Remained Stuck Near Cycle Low—No Recovery
• Unusually Large GDP Revision So Late in Cycle Could Be Suggestive of Pending Benchmark Impact
• Fed Policies Should Intensify Market Reactions to Economic Surprises
No. 535: Fed Jawboning, May Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales  June, 25th, 2013 • Irregular Surge in Commercial Aircraft Sales Generated Bulk of Gain in Durable Goods Orders
• Single-Unit Housing Starts, New- and Existing-Home Sales Down Respectively
by 67.1%, 65.7% and 28.7% from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Five-Year High in Confidence Still Is in Recession Territory
No. 534: May CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Systemic Solvency  June, 18th, 2013 • Fed’s Expanded QE3 Has Monetized 78.4% of the Concurrent Increase in Treasury Debt
• Relationship of Post-2008 Monetary Base Activity to Broad Money Supply
• May Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.4% (CPI-U), 1.2% (CPI-W), 9.0% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Still Signal Broad Economic Downturn
• Second-Quarter Housing Starts on Track for Quarterly Plunge
No. 533: May Industrial Production and PPI  June, 14th, 2013 • Weakening Economy and Rising Inflation Should Become the Trend
• Contraction in Second-Quarter Production Suggested by Faltering Numbers
• Headline PPI Jumped 0.5% with Shifting Seasonal-Factor Distortions
No. 532: Market Instabilities, May Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity  June, 13th, 2013 • Market Instabilities Suggestive of Nearing, Hyperinflation End Game
• Monthly Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant; Recession Signal Intact
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Heavily Impaired
No. 531: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3,  June, 8th, 2013 • Monthly Changes in Employment and Unemployment Remain Meaningless; Economic Recovery Remains an Illusion
• May Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Slows to Six–Month Low
No. 530: Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revision, Money Supply, Construction Spending  June, 4th, 2013 • Benchmarked Trade Deficit Generally Worse Than Previously Estimated; Revisions Should Alter Quarterly Growth Patterns in 2012 GDP
• Surging Monetary Base and Slowing M3 Signal Banking-System Woes and No Quick End to QE3
• Construction Spending Continued Pattern of Stagnation; Benchmark Revisions Loom
No. 529: Retail Sales Benchmark Revision  May, 31st, 2013 • Annual Retail Sales Revised Lower by 0.43% in 2011 and 0.22% in 2012
No. 528: First Revision to First-Quarter 2013 GDP  May, 30th, 2013 • 1.5% GNP versus 2.4% GDP Reflected Net-Debtor Nation Status of United States
• First-Quarter Economic Growth Remained Statistically Insignificant
• Real Disposable Income Contracted Even Adjusted for Year-End Dividend Surge and Renewed Payroll Tax Withholdings
No. 527: SPECIAL COMMENTARY Update on U.S. Fiscal, Monetary, Economic Conditions and Outlook for U.S. Dollar, Gold and Silver  May, 29th, 2013 • $25 Million Shy of New Debt Ceiling, U.S. Treasury Holds $16.1 Billion, About One Day’s Worth of Regular Operating Cash
• Since Onset of Expanded QE3, Fed Has Monetized 73% of Net Public Treasury Debt Issuance, Should Hit 100% by Mid-July
• Fed Locked into Quantitative Easing for Foreseeable Future by Economic Woes, Banking System Difficulties and Treasury Borrowing Problems
• Narrowed Budget Deficit Forecasts Reflect One-Time Accelerated Tax Receipts, “Dividend” Payments and Overly-Optimistic Assumptions, Economic and Otherwise
• Developing Washington Scandals Could Impair U.S. Dollar
• General Outlook Has Not Changed
No. 526: April Durable Goods and Revisions, Home Sales  May, 24th, 2013 • Revised Durable Goods Orders Showed a Weaker “Recovery”
• Home Sales Remained Stagnant
No. 525: April CPI, Housing Starts  May, 17th, 2013 • Inflation Remains Very Much a Threat
• April Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 0.9% (CPI-W), 8.7% (ShadowStats)
• CPI Decline Boosted Real Retail Sales, Re-Intensifying Recession Still Signaled
• April Housing Starts Showed Statistically-Significant Plunge
No. 524: April Industrial Production, PPI  May, 15th, 2013 • April Production Sinks Below First-Quarter 2013 Average
• PPI Hit Again by Oil and Seasonal Adjustments
• Overly Optimistic Assumptions Understate Budget-Deficit Problems
No. 523: April Retail Sales, U.S. Dollar  May, 13th, 2013 • April Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically-Insignificant, Annual Growth Still Signaled Intensified Economic Downturn
• Dollar Fundamentals Remain Abysmal
No. 522: Federal Debt Limit, State-by-State Unemployment, Consumer Credit  May, 9th, 2013 • Federal Debt Ceiling Suspension Only Goes through May 18th
• State-by-State ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Measure Ranges from 8.0% in North Dakota to 35.4% in Nevada, California at 30.8%
No. 521: April Employment and Unemployment, M3 and Monetary Base  May, 3rd, 2013 • Employment and Unemployment Data Were Nonsense:
The Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• April Unemployment: 7.5% (U.3), 13.9% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Holds at 4.3%, Monetary Base at 14.7%
No. 520: March Trade Deficit and Construction Spending  May, 2nd, 2013 • March Trade Report Puts Upside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Construction Spending Appears to Be Turning Down, Again
No. 519: First-Quarter 2013 GDP, Median Household Income  April, 26th, 2013 • 2.5% GDP Gain Was Statistically-Insignificant,
• Ongoing Stagnation and Renewed Downturn Are the Underlying Reality
• Official Recovery Is Not Supported by Underlying Numbers
• Median Household Income Remained Structurally Impaired in March
No. 518: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Monetary Base,  April, 24th, 2013 • First-Quarter Durable Goods Orders Contracted at 1.6% Annualized Pace
• Home Sales Activity Constrained by Consumer Liquidity Woes
• GDP Revision Games
• Monetary Base Tops $3 Trillion
No. 517: Gold Update, March CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts,  April, 17th, 2013 • Gold Strength Has Been Fundamental, Not Speculative, and Unavoidable Fundamentals Promise Much Higher Gold Prices
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.3% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
• March Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.25%; Annual Real Growth Signaled Intensifying Downturn
• March Production Gain of 0.4% was 0.1% Loss, Net of Unseasonable-Weather Boost to Utilities
• March One-Unit Housing Starts Fell 4.8%, in Low-Level Stagnation, Multiple-Unit (Apartment) Starts in Recovery
No. 516: March Retail Sales and PPI, Gold  April, 12th, 2013 • Despite Concerted Central Bank and Wall Street Efforts to Tarnish Gold, Gold Does Not Tarnish; It Remains the Primary Hedge Against Looming Fiscal Fiasco and Dollar Debasement
• March Retail Sales Delivered a Traditional Recession Signal
• March PPI Hammered by Energy-Price-Suppressing Seasonal Factors
No. 515—PUBLIC COMMENT ON INFLATION MEASUREMENT AND THE CHAINED-CPI (C-CPI)  April, 8th, 2013 • Consumer Price Index Has Been Reconfigured Since Early-1980s So As to Understate Inflation versus Common Experience
• This is an update to last year’s Public Comment and incorporates content provided to subscribers in recent Commentaries.
No. 514: March Employment and Unemployment, M3 Money Supply, February Trade Balance, Construction Spending, Consumer Credit  April, 6th, 2013 • March Unemployment and Employment Counts Both Dropped by 200K-Plus,
Signaling Intensifying Economic Contraction
• March Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats)
• M3 Continues to Slow as Monetary Base Pushes to Record $3.0 Trillion
• February Trade Deficit and Construction Suggestive of Continuing Economic Stagnation
No. 513: Individual Income and Investments, GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales  March, 28th, 2013 • Even the Modest Headline CPI-U Inflation Is Troubling for Flagging Personal Income and Investments
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates Remained Statistically Insignificant
• Patterns of Low-Level Stagnation Continued in Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales
No. 512: Budget Proposals, Industrial Production Revisions,  March, 25th, 2013 • Revised Industrial Production Shows Somewhat Shallower “Recovery”
• Suggestions of Downside Revisions in Headline GDP Growth From Third-Quarter 2010 to Date
• Signs of Mounting Stress in Existing Home Sales
No. 511: February 2013 Housing Starts  March, 19th, 2013

• Housing Starts Appear to Be Stagnating Anew
No. 510: February 2013 CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Production  March, 15th, 2013 • Budget-Deficit Negotiations Purportedly Revert Back to Using Fraudulent Reductions to CPI Inflation
• Topping Expectations, Monthly Inflation Hit 0.7% for Both PPI and CPI-U
• February Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 1.9% (CPI-W), 9.6% (ShadowStats)
• Retail Sales Gained 0.4%, Instead of 1.1%, Adjusted for Headline Inflation
• Pending Downside Production Benchmark Revisions Are Likely, Despite February’s Gain
No. 509: February 2013 Retail Sales  March, 13th, 2013 • Beyond Incorporating Significant Inflation February Retail Sales Gain Ran Counter to Evidence of Slowing Real Activity
No. 508: Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply, Consumer Credit  March, 8th, 2013 • Reflecting Ongoing, Seriously-Flawed Reporting, Neither the Jobs Gain Nor the Unemployment-Rate Decline Was Meaningful
• February Unemployment: 7.7% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Consumer Credit Outstanding Remained Stagnant, Net of Federally-Held Student Loans
• Slowing Growth in M3 Suggests Mounting Systemic Stress, As Monetary Base Continues to Soar
No. 507: Gold & the DJIA, January Trade, Construction, Median Household Income  March, 7th, 2013 • The Dow Retook Its October 2007 High on March 5th; Gold Was Up by 115% for the Same Period
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates Anew
• Inflation-Adjusted Construction Spending Shows No Recovery
• Structural Consumer Liquidity Issues Continue to Constrain Economic Activity.
No. 506: Revised GDP, January Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales  February, 28th, 2013

• Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision from 0.1% Contraction to 0.1% Growth Was Just Statistical Noise at Already Insignificant Levels
• Official Double-Dip Recession Should Be Clocked from Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• Ongoing Year-to-year Contractions in Real Durable Goods Orders Signal Renewed Economic Downturn
No. 505: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing Home Sales,  February, 21st, 2013 • Real Earnings Fall Year-to-Year
• January Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Aside from Not Measuring Constant-Standard-of-Living Inflation, The Chained-CPI Is Too Unstable for Setting Cost-of-Living Adjustments
• Outlooks Unchanged for Ongoing Economic and System-Liquidity Crises and for
Inflation Crisis to Develop in Year Ahead
No. 504: January 2013 Housing Starts, PPI and PPI and CPI Revisions  February, 20th, 2013 • January 2013 Housing Starts 61% Below High of January 2006
• Annualized January PPI Headline Inflation of 2.5% Was 7.1%, Before Seasonal-Adjustment Muting
• Revised Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation Data Suggestive of Instabilities in Monthly Headline Reporting
No. 503: January 2013 Industrial Production  February, 15th, 2013 • Annual Production Growth in January Slowed to Pre-Recession Levels
• Monthly Production Decline Was In the Context of Continued Volatile and Unstable Reporting
• Production Benchmark Revision in March Should Show Weaker Activity Than Previously Estimated
No. 502: January 2013 Retail Sales  February, 13th, 2013 • Retail Sales Continued to Stagnate, Reflecting Intensifying Structural Liquidity Issues for the Consumer
No. 501: December 2012 and Annual Trade Balance, Consumer Credit  February, 8th, 2013 • Little Changed for the Year, 2012 U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit Still Reflected Cumulative Loss of 6.6 Million Jobs
• December Trade Reporting Suggested Upside Contribution to First Revision of Fourth-Quarter GDP
• New ShadowStats Graph of Consumer Credit Outstanding
No. 500: SPECIAL COMMENTARY U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2012 Financial Data  February, 5th, 2013 • GAAP-Based Federal Budget Deficit Hit Record $6.6 Trillion in 2012
• Five-Year Average Annual Shortfall at $5.2 Trillion
• With U.S. Facing Mortal, Long-Range Solvency Issues, Hyperinflation Remains a Virtual Certainty
No. 499: January Labor Data and Revisions, M3 and December Construction Spending  February, 2nd, 2013 • Positive Benchmark Revision to Payrolls Overstates Current Circumstance
• Annual Upside-Bias in Birth-Death Model Increased to About 620,000
• January Unemployment: 7.9% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Month-to-Month Headline Unemployment Rates Are Not Comparable
• January M3 Year-to-Year Growth at 4.5%
No. 498: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods  January, 30th, 2013 • Although Recovery Never Took Place, Official Double-Dip Recession Likely Will Be Clocked from Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• Reported Contraction in Real GDP Designed to Discourage Fiscal Reform?
• Fourth-Quarter Nominal GDP Growth Collapsed to 0.46% from 5.91%
• Real Durable Goods Orders Contracted Year-to-Year, Despite Temporary Orders Boost from Year-End Defense Spending
No. 497: Monetary and Fiscal Developments, December Home Sales  January, 25th, 2013 • Congress Tries to Buy More Time to Balance Fiscal Conditions
But Patience of Global Markets is Finite
• Ongoing Economic Downturn Means Budget Prognostications Are Overly Optimistic
• QE3 Begins to Surface: Monetary Base at All-Time High, Broad Money Growth Rises
No. 496: ALERT GAAP-Based U.S. Budget Deficit  January, 17th, 2013 • Actual 2012 Federal Budget Deficit Hit $6.9 Trillion
No. 495: December CPI, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Production  January, 17th, 2013

• Official Quarterly Production Growth Rates for Second-Half 2012 Were Weakest Since Recession Trough in 2009
• Corrected for Understated Inflation, Real Retail Sales and Production Show
Post-2009 Stagnation Turned into Contraction in Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• December Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
• December Housing Starts Gain Still Not Statistically Significant
Despite Some Boost from Hurricane Damage
No. 494: December Retail Sales, PPI  January, 15th, 2013 • Merrily We Roll Along, Towards Hyperinflation
• U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns Could Resurface Quickly in Global Markets
• December Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant;
Activity Was Blurred by Storm Impact and Unstable Seasonal Adjustments
• Despite Stable Oil, December PPI Was Hit by Lower Food and Gasoline Prices
No. 493: November Trade Deficit  January, 11th, 2013 • Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High
• Implications for Weaker Advance-Estimate of 4th-Quarter GDP
• Consumer Structural-Liquidity Issues Continue
No. 492: Fiscal Fiasco, December Employment and Unemployment, November Construction  January, 5th, 2013 • Fiscal Crisis Continues Unabated; Last-Minute “Cliff” Deal Did Nothing to Reduce or Contain Budget Deficits
• No Way of Avoiding A Recession That Already Is Underway
• December U.3 Unemployment Rate Actually Rose by 0.1%
• ShadowStats Unemployment Estimate at New High
• December Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 23.0% (
• December M3 Annual Growth at 3-1/2 Year High
No. 491: 2012 and Early-2013 Conditions, November New Home Sales  December, 27th, 2012 • 2012 Saw Meaningful Degradation of Fiscal and Monetary Policies
and of Economic, Systemic and Political Stability
• 2013 Should Encompass a “New” Recession, Dollar Turmoil, Rising Inflation
• A Tumble Off the Cliff Would Trigger Confidence Problems That Never Could Be Recovered Fully
• Revisions Due for Seasonally-Adjusted Unemployment Data
No. 490: November Durable Goods, Housing Starts, GDP Revision  December, 21st, 2012

• GDP Upside Revision Was In Health Care (and Bad Deflation of Same)
• GDI (GDP Equivalent) Annualized Third-Quarter Gain of 1.36%, Followed Annualized Second-Quarter Contraction of 0.72%
• Weaker November Housing Starts Reflected Mixed Storm Effects, But Sharp Downside Revisions Were Pre-Hurricane
• Fed’s Inflation Target Is Just In-House Wishful Guessing
• Despite Boost from Hurricane, Durable Goods Orders Remained in Recession
No. 489: November CPI, Industrial Production  December, 14th, 2012 • Real Retail Sales Still Signal Recession
• Storm’s Impact on November Retail and Production Activity May Have Been Positive,
But Any Gains Are Temporary, And Major Revisions Are Likely
•Time for the Government to Come Clean on the C-CPI-U
• QE3 Expansion Promises Rising Inflation Ahead
• November Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.8% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.4% (SGS)
No. 488: Fed Action, November Retail Sales, PPI, October Trade Deficit  December, 13th, 2012 • Fed Moves to Monetize More Treasury Debt,
Boosting the Outlook for Inflation, Not the Economy
• Still Hammered by Consumer Illiquidity,
November Retail Sales Reporting Was Warped by Hurricane Effects
• Mangled by Soft Revisions to Services Surplus,
October Trade Deficit Likely Also Reflected Storm Distortions
• PPI Decline Driven by Temporary Drop in Oil Prices
No. 487: November Employment and Unemployment, October Construction, PCE Deflator  December, 7th, 2012 • Nonsense November Jobs and Unemployment Numbers
• Serious Revision Issues with Bloated Pre-Election Payroll Numbers
• Discouraged Workers Jumped by 20.4% in November
• November Unemployment: 7.7% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 22.9% (
• M3 Annual Growth Slows Anew
No. 486: Third-Quarter GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales  November, 29th, 2012 Third-Quarter 2012:
• Revised GDP Growth Was Flawed and Statistically Insignificant
• GDI (Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Rose 1.7%,
With Second-Quarter Falling into 0.7% Contraction
• Durable Goods Quarterly Contraction Deepened in Revision
• New Homes Sales Quarterly Gain Largely Revised Away
No. 485: SPECIAL COMMENTARY  November, 27th, 2012 • Hyperinflation by End of 2014
• Heavy Global Selling of U.S. Dollar Could Hit With Little Warning
• Don’t Blame Intensifying Economic Downturn on Sandy or the “Fiscal Cliff”
• Physical Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge
No. 484: Preview of Special Commentary, Housing Starts  November, 20th, 2012 • Barreling Down the Road, Big-Government Spending Tries Careening Around the Pothole of the “Fiscal-Cliff,” and then Accelerates, Blithely Ignoring the “Road-Closed” Sign Ahead
• Do or Die, Incoming Government Is Last Frail Hope for Avoiding Hyperinflation
• Economy Already in Renewed Contraction
• Four-Year High in October Housing Starts Still Is 61% Below 2006 Peak
No. 483: October Industrial Production  November, 16th, 2012 • Industrial Production Already Was in Contraction Before Hurricane Sandy Pummeled the East Coast
No. 482: October CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Real Earnings  November, 15th, 2012 • Official Real Retail Sales Signal Recession
• Storm’s Impact on October Activity Was Mixed
• Official Real Earnings Sink to Four-Year Low,
Down 2.7% Year-to-Year
• Annual Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Continue to Rise
• October Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.2% (CPI-U), 2.2% (CPI-W), 9.8% (SGS)
No. 481: ALERT Unusual U.S. Treasury Action  November, 10th, 2012 • Negative Indication for Meaningful Lame-Duck Negotiations on the
Budget Deficit, “Fiscal Cliff” and Debt Ceiling
No. 480: September Trade Balance, Presidential Election  November, 8th, 2012 • September Trade Data Suggest Upside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Hurricane Sandy May Have Disrupted Flow of Trade Data
• No Meaningful Shift in Control of U.S. Government, As Budget-Deficit and Debt-Limit Woes Come to the Fore
No. 479: Presidential Election, Hurricane Sandy, October Employment and Unemployment,  November, 2nd, 2012 • October Jobs and Unemployment Numbers Were Not Credible,
Artifacts of a Broken Reporting System and/or Direct Manipulation
• With Consistent Seasonal Adjustments, October Jobs Gain
Would Have Been About 117,000 Instead of 171,000
• October Unemployment: 7.9% (U.3), 14.6% (U.6), 22.9% (
• M3 Annual Growth Picks Up Again
No. 478: Third-Quarter GDP, Durable Goods, Home Sales  October, 26th, 2012 • Nonsense GDP Growth Was Statistically Insignificant
• Corrected for Misleading Deflation, GDP Shows No Recovery
• M3 Velocity Continued to Rise
• Durable Goods Orders Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
• Home Sales Remained Stagnant at Low Levels of Activity
• Upcoming October Jobs Report
No. 477: September Housing Starts  October, 17th, 2012 • September Housing Starts Surge Was Marginally Significant
But Not Credible
No. 476: September CPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings  October, 16th, 2012 • Quarterly Industrial Production Contracted for First Time Since Official Recession
• Quarterly Pace of Inflation Picked Up, With CPI and PPI Topping Market Expectations
• September Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.6% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Continued to Tumble
• Inflation Provided Half of September Retail Sales Growth
No. 475: September Retail Sales  October, 15th, 2012 • September Retail Sales Boosted by Inflation and Seasonal-Adjustment Issues
• Economic Recovery Is Not Possible Without Consumer Liquidity Rebound
No. 474: September PPI, August Trade Deficit, Manipulations  October, 12th, 2012 • Third-Quarter Wholesale Inflation Jumps to an Annualized 6.2%
• August Trade Deficit Suggests Downside Pressure on Third-Quarter GDP Estimate
• Political Manipulation of Economic Data: It Has Happened Before
No. 473: September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCEDeflator  October, 5th, 2012 • Phony Unemployment Rate Drop? Here Is How It May Have Happened
• With Deliberately-Inconsistent Numbers, Only the BLS Can Clear-Up the Reporting
• September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (
• September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher Again
No. 472: GDP Revision, August Durable Goods, Household Income, New Home Sales  September, 27th, 2012 • Unusually Large 2nd-Quarter Revisions: Headline GDP Growth Dropped to 1.3% from 1.7%,
Theoretically Equivalent GDI Dropped to 0.2% from 0.6%
• Plunging Automobile and Commercial Aircraft Sales Savaged Durable Goods Orders
• August Household Income Took a Hit
No. 471: August Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales  September, 19th, 2012 • Official Recovery Remains an Illusion
• Stagnant U.S. Economy Starts to Contract Anew
• Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales Still Are Bottom-Bouncing
No. 470: August CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production  September, 14th, 2012 • Fed Easing Aimed at Propping Banking System, Not Boosting Economy
• CPI and PPI Headline Inflation Highest Since June 2009
• Headline CPI Held at 0.6%, Instead of 1.0%, Due to Intervention Analysis?
• August Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Showing Consistent Pattern of Overstated Headline Activity Being Revised Lower in Following Month
• Monthly Production and Real Earnings Turn Down
No. 469: 2011 Income and Poverty Report, July Trade Balance  September, 12th, 2012

• Real Median Household Income Collapses to 16-Year Low;
• 2011 Income Below Levels of Late-1960s, Early-1970s
• Income Variance Hits Record High, Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Trade Deficit Contained by Short-Lived Decline in Oil Prices
No. 468: August Employment and Unemployment, M3  September, 7th, 2012 • A Move to Open-Ended Monetization of Treasuries?
• Payroll Jobs Down by 261,000, Household-Survey Employment Down by 86,000,
Since President Obama’s January 2009 Inauguration
• BLS Did Not Publish Actual July-to-August Unemployment Rate Change
• August Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (
• M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher
• Jump in Reported Inflation Likely in Week Ahead
No. 467: GDP Revision, Gold Standard  August, 29th, 2012 • GDI at 0.6%, GDP at 1.7%, GNP at 2.2%, All Plus-or-Minus Three Percentage Points
• GDP Recovery Remains An Illusion, Based on Understated Inflation
• Fiscal Conditions Have to Be in Balance for Gold Standard to Work
No. 466: July Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales  August, 24th, 2012 • Real Durable Goods Orders and New- and Existing-Home Sales Stagnate Below Pre-2001 Recession Levels
No. 465: July Housing Starts, Economic Review  August, 16th, 2012 • Housing Starts Activity Continued in Stagnation
• Broad Economy Is Not Recovering
No. 464: July CPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production  August, 15th, 2012

• U. S. Dollar versus Euro
• Irregular Seasonal Factors Depressed Headline CPI by Two-Tenths of a Percentage Point
• July Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.4% (CPI-U), 1.3% (CPI-W), 9.0% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Earnings Showed Deteriorating Economy
• July Production Boost Reflected Excess Auto Inventory Building
No. 463: July Retail Sales, PPI  August, 14th, 2012 • July Retail Sales Gain Reflected Ongoing Seasonality Problems and Revisions;
It Did Not Reflect Shifting Consumer Dynamics
• Potential Downside Revision Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP
• Stronger “Core” PPI Inflation Continues to Show Long-Range Impact of Higher Oil Prices
No. 462: June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit  August, 9th, 2012 • Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience
• Trade Data Place Upside Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP Revision
• Consumer Credit Growth Remains All in Student Loans
No. 461: July Employment and Unemployment  August, 3rd, 2012 • Nixonian Unemployment Reporting
• July Household-Survey Employment Plunged by 195,000
• Annual Add-Factors in Birth-Death Model Upped to 548,000 Jobs
• July Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.0% (U.6), 22.9% (Shadow Stats)
• Shadow Stats Unemployment Within 0.1 Percentage Point of Cycle-High
• Year-to-Year July M3 Money Supply Growth Even with June
No. 460: FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator  August, 1st, 2012 • Fed Action Appears to Be on Hold for Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• Construction Spending Still Bottom-Bouncing
• Disposable Income Flattens Out
No. 459: Second-Quarter GDP, Annual GDP Revisions  July, 28th, 2012 • GDP Revisions Showed a Later “Full Recovery” with Shifted Growth Patterns
• Double-Dip Downturn Looms
• Velocity of Money (M3) Is Rising
No. 458: June Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Household Income  July, 26th, 2012 • Durable Goods Orders in Second Straight Quarterly Contraction
• Household Income Still Bottom-Bouncing
• June Home Sales Fall-Off, Quarterly Growth Slows/Contracts
No. 457: June Housing Starts, Economic Review  July, 18th, 2012

• Housing Growth Slowed in Second Quarter
• Headline Housing Starts Gain Not Statistically Significant
• Annual GDP Revisions Loom
No. 456: June CPI and Industrial Production  July, 17th, 2012

• Headline Inflation Should Increase in Next Several Months
• June Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Second-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contracted at 1.5% Annualized Rate
• Production Growth Slowed Sharply in Second-Quarter
No. 455: June Retail Sales  July, 16th, 2012 • Second-Quarter Retail Sales Contraction Was First Since the “Recession”
• Renewed Downturn in Business Activity Picks Up Momentum
No. 454: May Trade Balance and Consumer Credit, June PPI  July, 13th, 2012 • Trade Data Suggest Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP
• Food Prices and Seasonals Offset Declining Oil Prices in PPI
• Consumer Credit Bottom-Bounces Net of Government Holdings of Student Loans
No. 453: June Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3  July, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Factor Issues Inflated June Jobs and Made “Unchanged” Unemployment Meaningless
• June Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.8% (Shadow Stats)
• Shadow Stats Unemployment Nearing Cycle High
• Year-to-Year M3 Money Supply Growth Notched Higher in June
No. 452: Consumer Liquidity, Construction Spending, PCE Deflator  July, 2nd, 2012 • Private Nonresidential Construction Took A Hit in Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Outlook Remains Dim
No. 451: GDP Revision, Unemployment Reporting Inconsistencies  June, 28th, 2012 • Revised First-Quarter GNP Growth Plunged to 0.5% (Previously 1.3%)
• Actual Monthly Change in U.S. Unemployment Rate Masked by Inconsistencies in Reporting
No. 450: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Consumer Confidence  June, 27th, 2012 • Real Durable Goods Orders Topping Out Below Levels Seen in 1999
• Home Sales Keep Bottom-Bouncing Along
No. 449: May Housing Starts  June, 19th, 2012

• Housing Starts Bouncing at Slightly Higher Plateau
No. 448: May Industrial Production  June, 15th, 2012 • Manufacturers Cut Production, Trying to Reduce Excess Inventories Versus Slack Demand
No. 447: May CPI, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings  June, 14th, 2012

• Softening Inflation Pattern Is About to Reverse
• May Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Real Earnings Revise Lower
No. 446: May Retail Sales, PPI  June, 13th, 2012 • Revisions Eviscerated Recent Retail Strength
• May Sales Fell 0.8% Against Initial April Reporting
• PPI Decline Reflected Oil Price Drop Compounded by Adverse Seasonal Factors
No. 445: SPECIAL COMMENTARY - Review of Economic, Systemic-Solvency, Inflation, U.S. Dollar and Gold Circumstances  June, 12th, 2012 • Economic and Systemic Crises of 2007/2008 Continue
• Don’t Blame the Economy on Europe
• Global Markets to Turn Against U.S. Dollar
• Hyperinflation Outlook Updated
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge
No. 444: April Trade Balance  June, 11th, 2012 • Trade Data Suggest Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP
No. 443: Employment and Unemployment, Construction, M3, PCE Deflator  June, 1st, 2012 • May Payrolls Up Just 20,000 versus Initial April Estimate
• May Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.8% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Money Supply Growth Slowed Further in May
• Construction Spending Stagnation Continued in April
• April PCE Deflator Dropped Below Fed’s Target
No. 442: GDP Revision, Election Impact  May, 31st, 2012 • First-Quarter GNP Headline Growth Fell to 1.3%, Weakest Since Second-Quarter 2009 Official End of Recession
• Major Revisions to Income and Implications for the Presidential Election
No. 441: April Durable Goods Orders, New and Existing Home Sales, U.S. Dollar  May, 24th, 2012 • Activity in Real Durable Goods Orders Is Below 1999 Level
• Low-Level Stagnation in Home Sales Activity Continued into April
• Update on U.S. Dollar Fundamentals
No. 440: Durable Goods Orders Annual Benchmark Revision  May, 18th, 2012 • Durable Goods Orders Collapsed More Sharply in 2009,
Rebounded More Sharply in 2010, and Showed a Somewhat Softer Gain in 2011
• Auto Industry Turmoil Appears to Have Disrupted Orders Reporting
No. 439: April Industrial Production, Housing Starts  May, 16th, 2012

• Unusually Unstable Production Reporting
• Housing Starts Stagnation at Slightly Higher Plateau
Consumer Price Index  May, 15th, 2012 No. 438: Public Commentary on Inflation Measurement.
No. 437: April CPI, Real Earnings, Retail Sales, Euro  May, 15th, 2012

• “Core” CPI-U Inflation Hits Cycle High
• April Year-to-Year Inflation Softens: 2.3% (CPI-U), 2.4% (CPI-W), 9.9% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings in Ongoing Year-to-Year Decline
• Retail Sales Were Stagnant, Statistically Insignificant
No. 436: March Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, April PPI  May, 11th, 2012

• Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• PPI Contraction Due to Seasonal-Factor Suppression of Higher Energy Prices
• Net of Federal Student Loans, Consumer Credit Is Near Cycle Low
• Gold Remains Key Hedge Against Oncoming Troubles
No. 435: April Employment/Unemployment, Money Supply and Velocity, Systemic Stress,  May, 4th, 2012 • For Second Month, Household-Survey Employment Fell as Payroll Growth Faltered
• April Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Growth Weakened in April as Velocity Rose
• New Indicator Shows Intensifying Systemic Stress
• Impaired Construction Spending Continued
No. 434: Unpublished Payroll Data, Household Income  May, 2nd, 2012 • Unpublished Payroll Employment Numbers
• March Household Income Sputters
• Clarifying Some Misperceptions
No. 433: Retail Sales Benchmark, March PCE Deflator, Systemic Stress  April, 30th, 2012 • Retail Sales Benchmark Revision Showed Weaker Historical Growth
• March PCE Deflator Closer to Fed’s Target
• Indications of Intensifying Systemic Stress
No. 432: First-Quarter 2012 GDP  April, 27th, 2012 • First-Quarter GDP Growth Not Statistically Significant
• Recovery Is an Illusion Created by Use of Artificially-Low Inflation
No. 431: March Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales  April, 25th, 2012 • Drop in March Durable Goods Orders Reflected Normal Volatility, But Inflation-Adjusted Level Was 23.4% Below Pre-2007 Recession High
• Protracted Low-Level Stagnation Continued for March Home Sales
No. 430: March Industrial Production and Housing Starts  April, 17th, 2012

• Industrial Production Unchanged for Second Month
• Housing Starts in 40th Month of Historically-Low-Level Stagnation,
Following 2006-to-2008 Collapse in Activity
SPECIAL COMMENTARY. No. 429: Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales  April, 16th, 2012 • Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant
• First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income Increasingly Constrained
• Sustainable Economic Growth Is Not Possible Without Underlying Growth in Income and Credit
No. 428: March CPI and PPI, February Trade Balance  April, 13th, 2012

• CPI Headline Inflation of 0.3% Was 0.8% Not Seasonally Adjusted
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 2.9% (CPI-W), 10.3% (SGS)
• Broad-Based Inflation Reflected in Stronger “Core” Inflation
• February Trade Improvement Should Boost GDP Expectations
No. 427: March Labor Data, M3 and February Construction Spending  April, 6th, 2012 • Headline Jobs Gain and Unemployment Rate Decline Were Statistically Insignificant
• March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
• Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
• QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
• M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification
SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 426: Economic Update: Mired in A Protracted Downturn  March, 30th, 2012 • GNP Growth at 1.8% versus 3.0% GDP
• Real Durable Goods Orders 10% Below Levels Seen in 2000
• Shenanigans in Industrial Production Benchmark Masked Small Downside Revisions to Recent Activity
• Recession Deeper than Previously Estimated
No. 425: February Housing Starts, New and Existing Home Sales  March, 23rd, 2012 • Activity in Housing and Construction Remains Stagnant Near Historic Lows
No. 424: February CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production  March, 16th, 2012 • February CPI Was Shy of Reflecting Full Impact of Gasoline Prices
• February’s Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Monthly Gain Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Volatile Monthly Production Numbers Sputtered And Stalled Once Again
No. 423: February Retail Sales  March, 13th, 2012 • Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain
No. 422: February Employment, Unemployment and M3, January Trade Balance  March, 9th, 2012 • Payrolls Regain Pre-2001 (Not Pre-2007) Recession Levels
• February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
• Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew
No. 421: GDP Revision, January PCE Deflator and Durable Goods Orders  March, 1st, 2012 • GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise, Yet 4th-Quarter No Longer Is Comparable with Prior Periods
• Income Revised to Show Ongoing Surging Salaries and Wages of “Unknown” Nature
• Fed’s Inflation Target (PCE Deflator) Is A Poorly Regurgitated CPI Measure
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Net of Plunging Aircraft Orders
No. 420: Monetary Base, January Home Sales  February, 24th, 2012 • Monetary Base Surge to Record High Suggests Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• January Home Sales Numbers Continued Bottom-Bouncing
• Unstable Seasonal Adjustments in Existing Home Sales?
No. 419: January CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Housing Starts  February, 17th, 2012 • Annual “Core” Inflation Rose for 15th Straight Month
• Year-to-Year January Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Headline CPI and PPI Inflation Rates Understated Due to Unstable Seasonal Factors
Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update  February, 17th, 2012
Please see our introductory pages on payroll tax receipts for some background information on this data series.
Analyzing the Potential for Tax Receipts Growth in 2012
Note: In all that follows, "Tax Receipts" and "Tax Deposits" refer to payments deposited by employers on the basis of payroll activity, and received by the US Treasury . The deposits […]
No. 418: January Retail Sales and Industrial Production  February, 15th, 2012 • Retail Sales “Growth” Remains Statistically Insignificant and Reliant on Price Increases
• Slowing Annual Growth Evident in Both Sales and Production
No. 417: December 2011 and Annual Trade Deficit  February, 10th, 2012 • Annual Trade Deficit Widened to $558 Billion in 2011, from $500 Billion in 2010, A Negative for Both the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. Economy
• Trade Could Pressure GDP Revision to Downside
• More Jobs Lost to NAFTA
No. 416: Payrolls, Unemployment and Revisions, M3, PCE Deflator  February, 3rd, 2012 • Basic Economic Outlook Unaltered by Stronger Labor Data
•  January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago
• January Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.1% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up
No. 415: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales  January, 27th, 2012 • Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8%
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Still Show Stagnation
• Fed’s New PCE Inflation Target Is Inconsistent with Plans for Ongoing Easing
No. 414: Hyperinflation Special Report 2012  January, 25th, 2012 • U.S. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Moves Ever Closer
• U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
• Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
• Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same
No. 413: December CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales  January, 19th, 2012 • Patterns of Slowing Growth Have Re-Emerged
• Inflation from High Oil Prices Still Impacting Broad Economy

• 2011 Average Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• 2011 Average Annual Wholesale Inflation: 6.1% (PPI)
• Perils of Poor-Quality Inflation Data and Bad Assumptions
No. 412: December Retail Sales, November Trade Balance  January, 13th, 2012 • Make-or-Break Month for Retailers Was Flat-to-Minus, Both Before and Likely After Adjustment for Inflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Retail Sales and Trade Data Should Dampen 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Outlook
No. 411: December Employment and Unemployment  January, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Adjustment Problems Spiked Jobs Growth, Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Artificially Lowered Unemployment Rates
•  December Jobs Reading Remained Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• December Unemployment: 8.5% (U.3), 15.2% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Tops 3.0% for First Time in 28 Months
FLASH UPDATE: December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem  January, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Adjustment Problem Inflated December’s 200,000 Payroll Gain by 42,000
No. 410: Special Commentary, GAAP-Based 2011 U.S. Financial Data  December, 28th, 2011 • Actual 2011 Federal Deficit Topped $5.0 Trillion
• U.S. Government Debt and Obligations Top $80 Trillion
• Long-Term U.S. Insolvency/Hyperinflation Remain Virtual Certainty
No. 409: Revised GDP, November Durable Goods, New Home Sales  December, 23rd, 2011 • GDI Indicates No U.S. Economic Growth in Either Second- or Third-Quarter 2011
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation
• Treasury Releases 2011 GAAP-Based Financial Report on U.S. Government
No. 408: November Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales  December, 21st, 2011 • 3.5 Million Home Sales Just Disappeared
• Housing Starts Still Bottom Bouncing
No. 407: November CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales Industrial Production  December, 16th, 2011

• Consumer Financial Distress Hampered Retail Sales and Production
• Nonsensical Hype Over Regularly Mis-Adjusted Jobless Claims
• High Oil Prices Still Inflating Broad Economy
• November’s Annual Inflation: 3.4% (CPI-U), 3.8% (CPI-W), 11.0% (SGS)
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge
No. 406: November Retail Sales, Payroll Tax Receipts  December, 13th, 2011 • Faltering Tax Receipts Show Consumer Income Taking A New Hit
• November Retail Sales Change Not Meaningful
No. 405: October Trade Balance  December, 9th, 2011 • October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price Variations
No. 404: Special Notice  December, 5th, 2011 • Treasury Delays Release of Government’s GAAP-Based Financial Statements Until Christmas Eve
No. 403: Labor Data, Consumer Confidence, M3, Systemic-Solvency and Euro Crises  December, 4th, 2011 • There Is No Sudden Economic Recovery, Just Bad-Quality Numbers and Deteriorating Labor Conditions
• Latest Jobs Level Still Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• November Unemployment: 8.6% (U.3), 15.6% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth at 2.7% in November
• Potential Euro Disintegration Is Nothing Like the Looming Dollar Collapse
NOTICE: Commentary No. 403 to be published December 3rd.  December, 2nd, 2011 The Economy Is Not Suddenly Recovering / November M3 up About 2.7%
No. 402: GDP Revision, October Durable Goods and Existing Home Sales  November, 23rd, 2011 • Headline Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Growth Collapsed with Suggestion of 0.8% Contraction for Third-Quarter
• Slowing Annual Growth in Durable Goods Orders
• Existing Home Sales Bottom-Bounce
• Once Again, U.S. Government Signals Lack of Fiscal Concerns
No. 401: Underlying Economic Reality, October Housing Starts  November, 17th, 2011

• Housing Starts Continued Three-Year Pattern of Bottom-Bouncing
• Economic Recovery Never Happened; Hyped Gains Were Based on Gimmicked Inflation Adjustments
• Current Downturn Already Exceeds Duration of Great Depression’s First Down-Leg
No. 400: Budget Deficit Reality, October CPI, Industrial Production  November, 16th, 2011 • GAAP-Based 2011 Federal Deficit Likely Within Five- to Seven-Trillion Dollar Range
• Effects of High Oil Prices Still Spreading in Broad Economy
• October’s Annual Inflation: 3.5% (CPI-U), 3.9% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Gained in October But the Series Share Inflation-Adjustment Issues
No. 399: October Retail Sales, PPI  November, 15th, 2011 • Retail Sales Gain Not Statistically Meaningful
• PPI Inflation Showed High Oil Price Effects Still Spreading in Broad Economy
No. 398: September Trade Deficit  November, 10th, 2011 • September Trade Data Suggest Minimal Upside Contribution to Pending GDP Revision
• U.S. Fiscal Disaster Surpasses Any Problems Seen With Major Trading Partners
• Pending Special Commentaries
No. 397: October Employment and Unemployment  November, 4th, 2011 • Monthly Payroll and Unemployment Changes Were Not Statistically Meaningful
• October Payroll Employment Not Only Was 6.5 Million Below the Pre-2007 Recession High,  But Also Was 1.0 Million Below the Pre-2001 Recession High
• October Unemployment: 9.0% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.9% (SGS)
• Annual Growth in October Money Supply M3 Held at About 2.6%
No. 396: 3rd-Quarter GDP, October Confidence, September Durables Orders and Home Sales  October, 27th, 2011 • Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Sink to Levels Never Seen Outside of the Worst Recessions
• No Economic Recovery Is in Place or in the Works
• Third-Quarter GDP Gain Not Statistically Meaningful
• GDP Nonsense:  Consumption Surged 1.7% While Disposable Income Collapsed 1.7%?
No. 395: September CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production  October, 19th, 2011 • Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Jumped in September
• September’s Annual Inflation: 3.9% (CPI-U), 4.4% (CPI-W), 11.5% (SGS)
• Annual PPI Inflation Hits 6.9% in September
• Third-Quarter Real Retail Sales, Production and Housing Starts Outpaced Second-Quarter Activity, but Economy Remains in Severe Downturn
No. 394: September Retail Sales, August Trade Deficit  October, 14th, 2011 • The Great Downturn Deepens as Household Incomes Collapse
• September Retail Sales Gain Exaggerated by Poor-Quality Seasonal Adjustments
• Trade Deficit Still Suggests A Positive Contribution to Third-Quarter GDP
No. 393: September Employment, Unemployment, M3, Special Commentary  October, 7th, 2011 • September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Meaningless
• Broadest Government Unemployment Rate Jumped by 0.3% to 16.5%
• September Unemployment: 9.1% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 23.1% (SGS)
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Inched Higher in September
• Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises Intensify
No. 392: Benchmark Payroll and GDP Revisions, August Durable Goods and Home Sales  September, 29th, 2011 • GDP Revised Higher, GDI Revised Lower, Growth Remained Statistically Indistinguishable from a Contraction
• Average Monthly Understatement of 16,000 Jobs for Year-Ended March 2011 (per BLS)
• Home Sales Keep Bottom-Bouncing Despite Having Covered Sales Lost to Stimulus Efforts
No. 391: August Housing Starts  September, 20th, 2011 • Following a 75% Crash in Housing Industry, Housing Starts Near Three-Years of Bottom-Bouncing
No. 390: August CPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production  September, 15th, 2011 • Consumer Inflation at Three-Year High 
• August’s Annual Inflation: 3.8% (CPI-U), 4.3% (CPI-W), 11.4% (SGS)
• “Core” Inflation Jumped Again with Some Acceleration
• Real Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in August
• August’s 0.2% Production Gain Was a 0.1% Loss Against Initial September Reporting
No. 389: August Retail Sales, PPI, 2010 Household Income  September, 14th, 2011 • Flat August Retail Sales Most Likely Were Down Net of Inflation
• Real Median Household Income Drops to 15-Year Low (Below 1969 Level, CPI-U Adjusted)
• Volatile PPI Reporting Flat for Month, Up 6.5% for Year
No. 388: July Trade Deficit, Turmoil in Financial Markets  September, 8th, 2011 • July Trade Deficit Suggests Possible Positive Contribution to Third-Quarter GDP
• Swiss Intervention Unlikely to Have Lasting Impact
No. 387: August Employment, Unemployment, M3  September, 2nd, 2011 • August Payrolls Were 58,000 Below the July Payroll Levels Reported One Month Ago
• Concurrent Seasonal-Factor Adjustments Mute Bad News
• August Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.8% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Slowed in August
No. 386: GDP Revision, July Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales  August, 26th, 2011 • Revised Second-Quarter GDP Change Remained Statistically Insignificant —Could Have Been a Contraction as Easily as a Gain
• Money Supply M2 Surge Reflects Shift from Large M3 Accounts
No. 385: July CPI, PPI, Industrial Production and Housing Starts  August, 18th, 2011 • Inflation Spreads Throughout Economy as Annual “Core” Inflation Jumps Again
• Consumer Inflation at 33-Month High 
• July’s Annual Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.2% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Gain Vanishes, Net of Inflation
• Unusual Heat and Japanese Auto Assembly Parts Boosted Production
• Housing Activity Remains Moribund
No. 384: Markets, July Retail Sales, June Trade Balance  August, 12th, 2011 • Financial Circumstances Remain Unstable and Threatening
• U.S. Dollar Is in Serious Trouble
• Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Meaningless and Largely Reflected Inflation
• Trade Data Suggest Downside Pressure on Upcoming GDP Revision
No. 383: Dollar, Deficit and Downgrade Crises, July Employment and M3  August, 7th, 2011 • Dollar Debasement Accelerates Dangerously
• U.S. Rating Downgrade Will Have Unhappy Ripple Effects
• QE3 Likely Will Be Indicated This Week
• Payroll and Unemployment Improvements Were Not Statistically Meaningful
• July Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 16.1% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Increased in July
No. 382: Second-Quarter GDP and Revisions, Durable Goods Orders  July, 29th, 2011

• GDP Growth Slows Markedly
• Official Downturn Much Deeper In Revision
• Latest GDP No Longer Has Recovered Pre-Recession High
• 2009 Annual GDP Drop Now Worst Since 1932 — Outside of World War II Production Shutdown
No. 381: Debt, Deficit and Sovereign Rating  July, 25th, 2011 • Dollar and Deficit Do Matter
• Downgrade Almost as Damaging as Default
No. 380: June Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales, Liquidity, GDP Outlook  July, 20th, 2011 • Housing Starts Boosted by Apartment Starts
• Existing Home Sales Suffer From Liquidity Crunch
• Solvency Crisis: Banks Are Not Increasing Aggregate Lending
• Downside GDP Revisions Loom
No. 379: June CPI, Industrial Production  July, 15th, 2011 • Economy Falters as Key Indicators Put in Worst Performances Since “End” of the Recession in June 2009
• Higher Energy Prices Create Broad Inflationary Pressures Across the Economy
• Despite Short-Lived Dip in Gasoline Prices June Annual Consumer Inflation Held at 32-Month High 
• June’s Annual Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Annual “Core” Inflation in a Steady Upside Move Since QE2
No. 378: June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit  July, 14th, 2011 • At Best, Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Showed No Growth in Second-Quarter 2011
• Trade Data Should Offer a Positive Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
• Wholesale Inflation Spreading to Broad Economy, Despite Short-Lived Dip in Oil and Gasoline Prices
No. 377: June Employment, Unemployment and M3  July, 8th, 2011 • Payroll Survey Employment Down by 26,000, Before Revisions
• Household Survey Employment Plunged by 445,000
• June Unemployment Rates: 9.2% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Flattened in June
No. 376: General Update  June, 30th, 2011 • Real Disposable Income on Track for Second-Quarter Contraction
• An Unlikely U.S. Default Would Hit Dollar and Accelerate Inflation
• New Action to Depress Officially Reported Inflation?
No. 375: GDP Revision, May Durables Goods Orders and Home Sales  June, 24th, 2011 • Bernanke Befuddled by Weak Economy?
• Major Downside Revisions to GDP Revisions Loom As Economy Slowly Slides into a Double-Dip
No. 374: May Housing Starts  June, 16th, 2011 • Housing Starts Remain in Downhill Bottom-Bouncing
No. 373: May Inflation, Retail Sales, Production  June, 15th, 2011 • Economy Falters as Inflation Surges
• May’s Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.2% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Contracted in Both April and May
• Stalled Industrial Production Continued
No. 372: April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift  June, 9th, 2011 • Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit
• Trade Revisions Showed Somewhat Deeper Historical Shortfalls
• Mr. Bernanke Begins to Unfurl His Warning Flag
No. 371: May Employment and Unemployment  June, 3rd, 2011 • Softer Employment Picture Reflected Minor Catch Up In Distorted Data – Much Weaker Data Loom Despite Ongoing Reporting Quality Issues
• Annual Growth in May Payrolls Slowed Anew
• May Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 15.8% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Growth Jumps Again
No. 370: GDP Revision, Revised Durable Goods, Home Sales  May, 26th, 2011

• Major Downside Revisions to GDP Loom in Upcoming Benchmark
• Durable Goods Orders Revised Lower by 8% in Trough-Year 2009
• Housing Activity Disaster Exacerbates Systemic Solvency Issues
No. 369: April Housing Starts, Industrial Production  May, 17th, 2011 • Housing Starts Under Downside Pressure
• April Production Stalled Amid Hefty Negative Revisions
No. 368: April Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit  May, 13th, 2011 • April Year-to-Year Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• Fed’s Dollar Debasement Efforts Boost Three-Month CPI Inflation into 6% to 7% Range
•  Official Double-Digit Consumer Inflation Possible in Third-Quarter
• With Rising Prices Dominating Sales Gains, “Core” Retail Sales Were Unchanged in April
No. 367: April Labor Numbers, Money Supply, Dollar and Precious Metals  May, 6th, 2011 • Increasingly Misleading Seasonal-Factors Continued to Pummel Accuracy of Jobs Data
• April Household Survey Showed 190,000 Employment Drop
• April Unemployment Rates: 9.0% (U.3), 15.9% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Gains in April
• Underlying Inflation, Dollar and Precious Metals Fundamentals Unchanged
No. 366: First-Quarter GDP, Retail Sales Revisions, Hyperinflation Watch  April, 29th, 2011

• Historical Retail Sales Revised Lower
• First-Quarter GDP “Growth” StatisticallyIndistinguishable from Contraction
No. 365: March Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders  April, 27th, 2011 • Pending Benchmarks to Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders Should Show Economy to Have Been Weaker
• Home Sales Remain Troubled
No. 364: Housing Starts, Hyperinflation Watch  April, 19th, 2011 • Housing Starts Keep Bouncing Down Hill
• Upcoming Numbers Should Show a Stalling and Much Weaker Economy
No. 363: Inflation, Retail Sales, Production  April, 15th, 2011 • Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March
• Fed’s Dollar Debasement Has Boosted Quarterly CPI Inflation to More than 5%
• March Year-to-Year Consumer Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 3.0% (CPI-W), 10.2% (SGS)
No. 362: Trade, Liquidity, Hyperinflation Watch  April, 12th, 2011 • Near-Term Hyperinflation Risk Continues to Progress
• Trade Deficit Should Be a Negative for First-Quarter GDP
No. 361: March Employment and Unemployment  April, 1st, 2011 • Reporting Quality Remains Abysmal for Monthly Employment and Unemployment
• March Unemployment Rates: 8.8% (U.3), 15.7% (U.6), 22.0% (SGS)
• Upped Birth-Death Bias Factors Both Assume and Create Jobs Growth
• Broad Money Supply in an Uptick?
No. 360: Industrial Production Revisions  March, 25th, 2011

• Revised Industrial Production Shows Much Deeper Recession
• February’s Production Level Lowered by 2.6%
No. 359: GDP Revision, February Home Sales and New Orders for Durable Goods  March, 25th, 2011 • Unlike Reported GDP, GNP and GDI Have Not Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
• GDP Revision Reflected Weaker Consumption and Higher Inventories
• Home Sales Plunged Anew in Tandem with Housing Starts
No. 358: February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3  March, 17th, 2011 • Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars
• Fed’s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their Poisoned Fruit
• February Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.3% (CPI-W), 9.6% (SGS)
• Housing Starts Fall Back to Post-World War II Historic Low
Hyperinflation Special Report (2011)  March, 15th, 2011 • United States Nears Hyperinflationary Great Depression
• Federal Reserve and Government Have Exploded the U.S. Fiscal Crisis, Shattered Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar but Not Resolved Ongoing Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises
• High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Disaster Beginning to Unfold in Months Ahead, 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same
• Contracting Money Supply Can Be Inflationary When Real Economy Contracts Even Faster
• Major Economic Series Suggest Formal Depression in Place
No. 356: February Retail Sales, January Trade Deficit  March, 11th, 2011 • February Retail Sales Gain of Questionable Reporting Quality
• January Trade Deficit Suggests Downside Pressure on First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 355: February Employment and Unemployment  March, 4th, 2011 • Crisis with Unstable Seasonal-Factors Diminishes Significance of Adjusted Labor Data
• February Unemployment: 8.9% (U.3), 15.9% (U.6), 22.1% (SGS)
• Contracting M3 and Rising Inflation
No. 354: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Tax Receipts, Political Crises  February, 25th, 2011 • Safe-Haven Flight from Mounting Political Turmoil in North Africa and Mid-East Favors Precious Metals and Swiss Franc over U.S. Dollar
• Payroll-Tax-Deposit Series to Offer New Economic and Fiscal Insights
• 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Revised Lower But Quality Issues Continue
• Home Sales Remain Troubled
No. 353: January Inflation  February, 17th, 2011 • January Annual Inflation Rose to 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.8% (CPI-W), 9.1% (SGS)
• Accelerating December and January Inflation Was Muted by Unstable Seasonal Adjustments
• C-CPI-U Revisions Generated “Needed” Lower Inflation Reporting
No. 352: January PPI, Production, Housing Starts  February, 16th, 2011 • PPI Gain Was Stronger than Expected with Mounting “Core” Problems, Yet Increase Was Muted by Revised Seasonal Factors
• Industrial Production Likely Faces Major Downward Revisions in March
• Housing Starts Still Bottom-Bouncing/Weakening
No. 351: January Retail Sales  February, 15th, 2011 • Retail Gains Were Offset Fully by Inflation for Second Month
• “Core” Retail Sales Activity (Net of Gasoline Stations and Grocery Stores) Was Unchanged
No. 350: December Trade Deficit  February, 11th, 2011 • December Trade Data Suggest Softer 4th-Quarter GDP in Revision
• Deficits Deepen with Biggest Trading Partners
No. 349: Crisis in Economic Reporting, Systemic Liquidity  February, 7th, 2011

• Seasonal Adjustment Crisis: Month-to-Month Comparisons Have Become Meaningless for Key Series
• Broad Money Supply Appears to Be Contracting Month-to-Month
No. 348: Labor Conditions and Revisions  February, 4th, 2011 • “Recovery” Since April 2010 Just Evaporated
• 500K Payroll Jobs Disappeared in Benchmark Revision
• January Payrolls Were Down 52K But for Upped Bias-Factor
• Unemployment Rate Distorted by Seasonal-Adjustment Crisis
• Unemployment: 9.0% (U.3), 16.1% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
No. 347: 4th Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods, Home Sales  January, 28th, 2011 • “Advance” 4th-Quarter GDP Estimate Was Meaningless
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Fourth Straight Month and for Fourth-Quarter
• Housing Market Conditions Remain Bleak
No. 346: December Housing Starts  January, 19th, 2011 • Housing Starts Collapse Accelerates Anew, Down an Annualized 30% in 4th- versus 3rd-Quarter
No. 345: December Inflation, Retail Sales, Production  January, 14th, 2011 • Monthly December Inflation Surged (Annualized Rates): CPI-U Gained 6.2%, CPI-W Jumped 7.8%, PPI Soared 14.0%
• December Retail Sales Increase Was Due to Price Increases
• Industrial Production Was Spiked by Unseasonable Weather
• Initial Trade Deficit Should Help 4th-Quarter GDP
No. 344: December Employment and Unemployment  January, 7th, 2011 • December Jobs Increase Was Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• December Unemployment: 9.4% (U.3), 16.7% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Seasonal Factor Issues “Improved” Both Payroll and Unemployment Reporting
• Watch Out for Next Month’s Revisions
No. 343: Updated December Jobs Report Outlook  January, 5th, 2011 • Employment and Unemployment Increasingly Should Disappoint Recovery Expectations
No. 342: Economic, Market and Systemic Outlook for 2011  December, 30th, 2010 • 2010: A Year of Depressed Economic Stagnation
• 2011: A Year of Increasing Economic and Systemic Difficulties
• Gold Outperforms Dow for Seventh Straight Year (2010)
No. 341: November Durable Goods Orders, Housing, GDP Revision  December, 23rd, 2010 • Automobile Orders Sink for Fourth Month
• Annualized GDP Growth at 2.6%, GDI Growth at 1.1%
• Housing Crisis Appears to Be Intensifying
• Year-to-Year Decline in Home Sales Is Meaningful Even after Netting out Year-Ago Tax Credit Spikes
No. 340: 2010 Financial Statements of the U.S. Government  December, 22nd, 2010 • Actual 2010 Annual GAAP Deficit in $5 Trillion Range
• “Uncertain” Impact of Health Care Law Roils the Accounting
• No U.S. Guarantee behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
No. 339: November Inflation, Retail Sales, Production  December, 15th, 2010 • Beware Unstable Economic Reporting!
• Inconsistent Seasonal Factors Depressed CPI
• Bulk of Gain in November Retail Sales Was from Higher Prices
No. 338: October Trade Deficit, Tax Games  December, 10th, 2010 • Narrower October Trade Deficit Is Positive Indication for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Proposed Tax Deal Would Not Forestall the Double-Dip
• Federal Government’s Fiscal Woes Would Be Exacerbated
No. 337: November Employment and Unemployment  December, 3rd, 2010 • November Jobs Increase Was Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• Recent Payroll Gains “Borrowed” Strength from Earlier Reporting
• Unemployment: 9.8% (U.3), 17.0% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)
No. 336: November Jobs Outlook, Deficit Commission, Euro Foil  December, 1st, 2010 • November Jobs Data Due for Some Downside Catch-Up
• Deficit Commission’s Primary Target Is Cash-Based Not GAAP-Based Deficit
• U.S. Remains the Dominant Sovereign-Solvency Problem
No. 335: GDP Revision, October Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales  November, 24th, 2010 • GDP at 2.5% But “Equivalent” GDI at 1.6%
• Weaker Durable Goods Orders Reflect Stressed Consumer
• Home Sales Weakness Intensified by Systemic-Solvency Issues
No. 334: October Inflation, Retail Sales, Production, Housing Starts  November, 17th, 2010 • Fed’s Monetization Jawboning Spiked Energy Inflation
• Fed Prefers to Ignore Energy Costs, Concentrating on “Core” Inflation Measures
• Retail Sales Still Heavily Distorted
•Production Appears to Have Topped
• Housing Starts Resume Meaningful Decline
No. 333: Updated Outlook: U.S. Economy, Inflation, Markets, Liquidity and Systemic Stability  November, 10th, 2010 • Economic and Systemic-Stability Crises Continue
• Promised Fed Actions Pummel Dollar versus Major Currencies and Precious Metals, as Global Markets Anticipate Higher U.S. Inflation
• Fed Policies Will Trigger Inflation but Not Recovery
• Hyperinflationary Great Depression Looms, Irrespective of Shifting Political Environment
• September Trade Deficit Should Have Little Impact on GDP Revision
No. 332: October Employment and Unemployment, Dollar Debasement, Election  November, 5th, 2010 • Baloney Payroll-Employment Data: Seasonal Adjustments Become Primary Driver of Jobs Creation?
• October Household-Survey Employment Fell 330,000
• October Unemployment Rates: 9.6% (U.3), 17.0% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Fed Move to Debase U.S. Dollar Will Generate Higher Inflation But No Recovery
• Election Results Do Not Alter Basic Economic or Inflation Outlooks
No. 331: Third-Quarter GDP, Quantitative-Easing Games, Homes Sales, New Orders  October, 29th, 2010 • Third-Quarter GDP Growth Statistically Indistinguishable from Zero
• Official Economic Activity Is Virtually Flat Other Than for Inventory Building
• Fed Will Be Forced to Monetize Treasury Debt, Irrespective of Current Jawboning, Games Playing and Hand Wringing
• October Employment Data Likely Will Disappoint Market Expectations
No. 330: September Production and Housing Starts  October, 19th, 2010 • Third-Quarter Production Growth Slowed and Housing Contracted
• Third-Quarter GDP Should Have Slowed, But the Heavily-Politicized and Guesstimated Series Virtually Is Worthless
No. 329: Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit and Debased Money  October, 15th, 2010 • Dollar Debasement Fears Mount
• September Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.5% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Gain Reflected Seasonal Distortions from Year-Ago Clunkers More Than It Did a Happier Consumer
• August Trade Deficit Took 0.5% from Third-Quarter GDP
No. 328 September Employment and Unemployment,  October, 8th, 2010 • Outright Contraction in September Payrolls Net of Temporary Census Workers
• Current Payroll Level Overstated by Roughly 550,000, Based on Announced Benchmark Revision
• Broad Unemployment Rates Soar
• September Unemployment Rates: U.3 at 9.6%, U.6 at 17.1%, SGS at 22.5%
• M3 Annual Decline Narrows
No. 327: Second-Quarter GDP Revision, September Employment Outlook  September, 30th, 2010 • 2nd-Quarter GDP at 1.7%, GDI at 1.3%
• Census Jobs Reduce September Payrolls by Roughly 78,000
• New Online Help-Wanted Advertising Drops 2.6%
No. 326: Double-Dip, Housing, Durable Goods  September, 26th, 2010 • Officially It Will Be a Double-Dip Recession
• Third-Quarter Contraction Suggested by Housing and Durable Goods Orders Data
• Stock Market Hypesters Grasping at Straws
• Gold Strength and Dollar Weakness Signal Problems Ahead
No. 325 CPI, PPI, Production, Household Income  September, 17th, 2010 • August Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.5% (SGS)
• Production Down Except for Boost from Prior-Period Revisions
• Households Face Mounting Financial Stress
• Income Variance at Record High
No. 324: August Retail Sales  September, 14th, 2010 • Boosted by Downside Revisions to July Retail Sales, August’s 0.4% Gain Still Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Net of Higher Food and Gas Prices, “Core” Retail Sales Increased Less Than 0.1%
No. 323: Updated Outlook on Economy, Systemic Stability and Financial Markets  September, 13th, 2010 • Protracted Economic Downturn Re-Intensifies
• Systemic Stability: “Tap-Dancing on a Land Mine”
• Risks of U.S. Dollar Instability and Systemic-Salvation Efforts Pose Severe Inflation Threat
No. 322: July Trade Deficit  September, 9th, 2010 • July Trade Deficit Suggests Minor Impact for Third-Quarter GDP
• Year-Ago Reporting Games May Affect Upcoming Data
No. 321: August Employment and Unemployment  September, 3rd, 2010 • August Unemployment: U.3 = 9.6%, U.6 = 16.7%, SGS = 22.0%
• August Payrolls Fall 54,000, Gain 60,000 Ex-Census Workers
• Better-Than-Expected Payroll Changes Were Not Statistically Meaningful
No. 320: Updated August Labor Market Outlook  September, 2nd, 2010 • August Payroll and Unemployment Reporting Likely to Disappoint Expectations
No. 319: Second-Quarter GDP Revision  August, 27th, 2010 • Second-Quarter GDP Revised to 1.6% from 2.4%
• Deteriorating Economic Data Eventually Should Disrupt U.S. Financial Markets
No. 318: July Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders  August, 25th, 2010 • Housing Market Stress Deepens Irrespective of Wild Reporting
• Durable Goods Orders Almost Flat Despite Aircraft Boost
• Census Payrolls Down 116,000 in August
No. 317: July Housing Starts, Production and PPI  August, 17th, 2010 • July Housing Starts Below Initial June Reporting, Suggestive of Third-Quarter GDP Contraction
• July Industrial Production Boosted by Seasonal Disruptions
• Annual PPI Inflation Rose to 4.2% in July
No. 316: CPI Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade and Liquidity  August, 15th, 2010 • July Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 8.6% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Hint at Third-Quarter GDP Contraction
• Widening Trade Deficit Will Dampen GDP in Revision
• Economic and Liquidity Crises Continue
No. 315: Updated Outlook, July Employment and Unemployment  August, 6th, 2010 • Re-Intensifying Depression Foreshadows Great Crises
• July Payrolls Fell 131,000, Gained 12,000 Ex-Census Layoffs
• June’s 100,000 Ex-Census Payroll Gain Revised to 4,000
• July Employment Dropped by 159,000 (Household Survey)
• July Unemployment: 9.5% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 21.7% (SGS)
No. 314: Updated July Employment Outlook  August, 5th, 2010 • Labor Conditions Likely Worse than Consensus
• Timing for Next Phase of Crises Coming into Better Focus
No. 313: Second-Quarter GDP and Revisions  July, 30th, 2010 • Worst Economic Downturn Since World War II Just Got Worse
• Bulk of First-Half GDP Growth Due to Inventories, Setting Up Likely Third-Quarter Contraction
• Lingering Market Hopes for Recovery Should Fade Quickly
No. 312: Durable Goods, Home Sales, Upcoming GDP Revisions  July, 28th, 2010 • Restated Downturn Should Be More Severe
• Nonsense Home-Sales Reporting
• Roughly 144,000 Census Jobs Lost in July
No. 311: June Housing Starts  July, 20th, 2010

• Housing Starts Show Bottoming-Bouncing, Approaching Renewed Decline
No. 310: Inflation and Production  July, 16th, 2010 • Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.4% (SGS)
• Lower Gasoline Tempered June Inflation, but Watch Out for July’s Data
• June Industrial Production Flattened Out
No. 309: Retail Sales and Trade Deficit  July, 14th, 2010 • Retail Sales Signaled Renewed Business Downturn, Again, in June
• Sales Falling at Roughly 7% Annualized Pace, Net of Inflation
• Trade Deficit’s Merchandise Component Should Sap 1.0% from GDP Growth
No. 308: Economic and Liquidity Update  July, 9th, 2010 • Shills for Wall Street Are Busy
• Broad Liquidity Measures Remain Abysmal
• Unemployment Trends Show Severity of the Depression
No. 307: June Employment and Unemployment, Liquidity Update  July, 2nd, 2010 • June Payrolls Jobs Fell 125,000, Gained 100,000 Net of Census Layoffs
• June Household-Survey Employment Dropped by 301,000
• June Unemployment: 9.5% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 21.6% (SGS)
• Payroll and Unemployment Changes Were Statistically Indistinguishable from Zero
No. 306: Update on Jobs Outlook for June  July, 1st, 2010 • June Census Jobs Loss Revised to 230,000
• Another 94,000 Lost in Subsequent Week
• Employment Reporting Likely to Disappoint Expectations
No. 305: Economic Update, GDP Revision, Durable Goods  June, 25th, 2010 • 69% of First-Quarter GDP Growth Was Inventory Build-Up, Annualized Final Sales Growth Slowed to 0.86%
• Unusually Large Late-GDP Changes in Advance of Next Month’s Annual GDP Revisions
• Softer than Advertised “Recovery” Data Should Accompany Onset of Renewed Downturn
No. 304: Census Jobs Loss, Home Sales  June, 23rd, 2010 • Census Firings Cost June Payrolls Roughly 240,000 Jobs
• May New Home Sales Down 40.5% in Month after Major Downside Revisions to Earlier Reporting
No. 303: Inflation Update, Housing and Production  June, 17th, 2010 Housing Starts Chart

• May Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 9.2% (SGS)
• Seasonal Factors Depressing Monthly CPI Reverse in June and July
• Early Signs Continue of Intensifying Business Contraction
No. 302: Retail Sales, Trade Deficit  June, 11th, 2010 • Ski-Jump-Shaped Depression
• May Retail Sales Drop: Tentative Confirmation of Intensified Business Downturn
• April Trade Deficit: A Negative for Second-Quarter GDP
No. 301: Money Supply Update  June, 7th, 2010 • 5.9% M3 Annual Decline Deepest Since Early-1930s Banking Crisis
• Post-World War II Record Drop in Inflation-Adjusted M3 Signals Intensifying Business Contraction
• Renewed Recession Will Set Stage for U.S. Solvency Crisis and Severe Inflation Threat
No. 300: May Employment and Unemployment  June, 4th, 2010 • May Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 20,000 Net of 411,000 Temporary Census Hires and Fell by 31,000 after Revisions and Birth-Death Model Shenanigans
• May Household-Survey Employment Fell by 35,000
Irrespective of Census Hires
• Unemployment Rates Were Artificially Low Due to Census Effects: 9.7% (U.3), 16.9% (U.6), 21.7% (SGS)
• M3 Signal for Double-Dip Downturn Intensifies
No. 299: Employment Report Outlook and Some Updates  June, 3rd, 2010 • 420,000 May Census Hires Assure “Strong” Jobs Report
• Consensus Estimates May Be Disappointed
• Continued Data Distortions Generated by Severity of the Economic Downturn
No. 298: GDP and New Orders for Durable Goods Revisions  May, 27th, 2010 • Gross Domestic Income Continues Showing Slower Growth than Gross Domestic Product
• Massive Revisions to Durable Goods Orders
• Employment Set to Retrench Anew (Net of Census Impact)
No. 297: Inflation, Housing Starts  May, 19th, 2010 • Market Fears of European Financial Instability Should Shift to Fears of U.S. Financial Instability
• Annual Inflation: 2.2% (CPI-U), 9.5% (SGS)
• Perils of “Core” and Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation
• Housing Starts Keep Bottom Bouncing
No. 296: Retail Sales, Production and the Deficits  May, 14th, 2010 • Retail Gain Statistically Indistinguishable from Contraction
• Revisions Enhance Production Reporting
• Trade Deficit Remains Economic Negative
• Budget Deficit Widens Despite Gimmicks
No. 295: April Employment/Unemployment, Systemic Risks  May, 7th, 2010 • Happy Assumptions and Census Hiring Help Payrolls
• April Unemployment: 9.9% (U.3), 17.1% (U.6), 22.0% (SGS)
• Real Annual Money Supply Contraction Deepens
• Worst Is Ahead for Economic and Solvency Crises
No. 294: First-Quarter GDP, Mounting Systemic Risks  April, 30th, 2010 • GDP Growth Lacks Sustainability
• Economic and Systemic Risks Intensify
No. 293: Inflation and Gold, March PPI, Durable Goods, Home Sales  April, 23rd, 2010 • PPI Showed Broadening Inflation Base
• Durable Goods Orders Suggest Bottom-Bouncing
• Home Sales Remain in Serious Trouble
No. 292: March Housing Starts, Industrial Production  April, 16th, 2010 • Housing Still Bottom-Bouncing
• Production Set to Soften
No. 291: March CPI, Retail Sales, Trade  April, 14th, 2010

• Annual Inflation: 2.3% (CPI-U), 9.5% (SGS)
• “Strong” Retail Sales Should Prove Fleeting
• Trade Deficit Widened / Recession Is Not Over
No. 290: Updated Liquidity and Economic Outlook  April, 9th, 2010 • Mounting Liquidity Squeeze Constrains Broad Business Activity
No. 289: March Employment and Unemployment, Liquidity Crisis  April, 2nd, 2010 • March Unemployment Rose to 9.8% Net of Census Hiring
• Official Reporting: BLS U-3 Held at 9.7%, U-6 Rose to 16.9%, SGS Rose to 21.7%
• March Employment Gain of 162,000 Was 114,000 Net of Temporary Census Hiring
• Economic-Deterioration Signal Intensifies
No. 288: Healthcare, GDP, Durables, Home Sales  March, 25th, 2010 • Government’s Healthcare Takeover Will Depress Economy, Exacerbate Deficit and Inflation Woes
• Downside Revisions Loom for 2009 GDP
• Durable Goods Orders Gains Are Long-Term not Near-Term
• Home Sales Heavily Influenced by Foreclosures
No. 287: February CPI and PPI  March, 18th, 2010 • February’s Annual Inflation: CPI-U (2.1%), SGS (9.4%)
• Oil Price Gyrations Contained February Inflation but Promise March Spike
No. 286: February Production and Housing  March, 16th, 2010 • Bottom-Bouncing Continues
• Fault Lines in “Recovery” Begin to Show
No. 285: Outlook Update, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit  March, 12th, 2010 • Retail Sales Revisions Boosted January Headline Gain but Reduced Reported Sales Levels
• Sales Still Bottom-Bouncing Net of Inflation
• January Trade Deficit Was GDP-Neutral
• Fleeting Census Jobs Creation Will Have Offsetting Losses
No. 284: February Employment and Unemployment  March, 5th, 2010 • Payroll Drop of 36,000 was 51,000 Net of Census Hiring
• Broader February Unemployment Measures Rose: U.6 at 16.8% (up 0.3%), SGS at 21.6% (up 0.4%)
• Economy Remains Headed into Deepening Downturn
No. 283: Updated February Employment Outlook  March, 4th, 2010 • Don’t Blame the Weather
No. 282: Federal Government 2009 GAAP-Accounting  March, 1st, 2010 • 2009 GAAP-Deficit Narrowed to $4.3 Trillion
• Total GAAP-Based Obligations of $71 Trillion at Five-Times GDP Level
• Accounting for Government Bailouts Showed TARP Profit
No. 281: General Update, GDP, Durable Goods  February, 26th, 2010 Chart of Adjusted Monetary Base

• 69% of 4th-Quarter’s 5.9% “Boom” Due to Nonfarm Inventories
• Economic and Financial Crises Are Not Over
• Fed Still Panicking Despite Happy Talk
No. 280: January CPI, PPI, Housing Starts, Production  February, 19th, 2010 • Annual Inflation 2.6% (CPI-U), 3.3% (CPI-W), 9.8% (SGS)
• Quarterly Inflation Shifted from Fourth- to Second-Quarter 2009
• Economy Keeps Bottom-Bouncing as Intensified Contraction Nears
No. 279: January Retail Sales  February, 12th, 2010 • January Retail Sales Gain Reflected Inflation and Seasonals
No. 278: Annual and December Trade Deficit  February, 10th, 2010 • December Trade Deficit Should Knock 1.1 Percentages Points off 4th-Quarter GDP Growth
• Storm-Delayed Economic Reports
No. 277: Liquidity Crisis Update, Money Supply  February, 8th, 2010 • Plunge in Broad Liquidity Continues
• Intensified Business Downturn Looms
• Monetary Base Surges to Near-Record High
• U.S. Economic and Financial Woes Remain Worse Than Rest of World
No. 276: Reporting Focus: January Employment and Benchmark Revision  February, 5th, 2010 Nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision

• 1.36 Million Jobs Knocked off December Payrolls; Depression’s Job Loss Increased by 19%
• January Unemployment: 16.5% (U-6), 21.2% (SGS)
• Serious Jobs and Unemployment Deterioration in Months Ahead
No. 275: Employment Outlook Update, New Site Feature  February, 3rd, 2010 • Revisions Allow for Unusual January Jobs Reporting
• Meaningful Payroll and Unemployment Deterioration Ahead
• New Site Feature: Content-Index Navigation Tool
No. 274: State of the Real World, Fourth-Quarter GDP  January, 29th, 2010 Real Annual GDP Chart

• 4th-Quarter GDP “Boom” Sets Stage for Double-Dip
• 2009 Downturn Worst Since Great Depression
• Watch-Out for 2010 Federal Deficit!
• Durable Goods Orders Keep Bottom-Bouncing
No. 273: December PPI, Housing Starts, GDP Outlook  January, 20th, 2010 • Annual PPI Inflation Hits 4.4%
• Housing Starts Keep Bottom-Bouncing
• Strong 4th Quarter GDP Report Would Set Base for Double-Dip Downturn
No. 272: December CPI, Industrial Production  January, 15th, 2010 Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales

• December Annual Inflation 2.7% (CPI-U), 9.7% (SGS)
• Unusually Cold Weather Boosted December Production
• Fed Shows Recession Ended Mid-2009, but Double-Dip Is in Place
No. 271: December Retail Sales  January, 14th, 2010 • Bad Seasonals Continue to Bloat Reported Retail Sales
• 2009 Holiday Season Was a Bust, both Before and After Inflation Adjustment, Using Normal Seasonal Factors
No. 270: December Employment Report  January, 8th, 2010 • Broader December Unemployment Rates Notched Higher, U-6 at 17.3%, SGS at 21.9%
• December Household Employment Reported Down by 589,000
• December Payroll Employment Probably Shrank by About 500,000
No. 269: Distorted Seasonals, Employment Outlook  January, 6th, 2010 • Depression-Induced Seasonal Factor Distortions Alter Recession’s Impact in Key Reporting
• Bad Seasonals Could Spike December Payrolls
No. 268: Double-Dip in Place  December, 30th, 2009 • Tumbling Real M3 Promises Intensified Depression
• Major Double-Dip Downturn Should Be Obvious by Mid-Year 2010
No. 267: Third-Quarter GDP Revision  December, 22nd, 2009 Gross Domestic Product Chart

• GDP Growth Still Overstated
• Economic and Liquidity Crises Face New Down-Legs
No. 266: November CPI, PPI, Production and Housing  December, 16th, 2009 • Bad Seasonals Turn Data Topsy-Turvy
• Annual CPI-U Inflation Jumps to 1.8% (SGS 8.8%)
• November versus October Annual Inflation Swings Positive by 2.0% for the CPI, 4.3% for the PPI
• November Annual Real Retail Sales Were Unchanged
• November Housing “Gain” Statistically Not Different from Zero
No. 265: November Retail Sales, Inflation Surge, Data Distortions  December, 13th, 2009 • Renewed Caution on Depression-Warped Data
• November Retail Sales Annual Gain of 1.9% Reflected Return of Inflation
• November Annual CPI Inflation Should Jump by About 2%
No. 264: November Employment, Monetary Base  December, 4th, 2009

• Employment and Unemployment Not Improving, Despite Distortions from Seasonal Factors and Revisions
• Unemployment Rate U.3 at 10.0% (SGS 21.8%)
• Fed Boosts Monetary Base Anew
Hyperinflation Special Report (Update 2010)  December, 2nd, 2009 • Economy and Financial System Face Eventual Great Collapse
• Government and Fed Actions Have Narrowed Hyperinflationary Great Depression Timing to Next Five Years
• High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Crisis Unfolding in Year Ahead
No. 262: U.S. GAAP Accounting Delayed, Employment Report Outlook  December, 2nd, 2009 • Treasury Delays 2009 GAAP Statement for Two Months
• Employment Conditions Remain Bleak
No. 261: Third-Quarter GDP Revision  November, 24th, 2009 • Lower GDP Growth Still Heavily Overstated
• 3rd-Quarter GDP at 2.8%, GDI at 2.0%
• “Reduced” Inflation Bloated Reported Activity
• Revised Salaries and Wages Soared as Employment Collapsed?
No. 260: Monetary Base and Contracting M3  November, 22nd, 2009 • Monetary Base Surge Stalls Near Record High
• Annual M3 Growth Could Turn Negative in December
• Continuing Liquidity Contraction Foreshadows Deepening Economic Downturn
No. 259 General Outlook, October CPI, PPI, Production, Housing  November, 18th, 2009 • Annual October CPI-U Inflation -0.18% (+7.1% SGS)
• Formal Deflation Has Run Its Course
• Bottom-Bouncing Continued in Real Retail Sales, Housing and Production
No. 258: October Retail Sales  November, 16th, 2009 • Reported October Retail Sales Boosted by Revisions and Inflation
• Third-Quarter GDP Growth May See Some Downward Revision
No. 257: Updated Trade Deficit, Credit, CPI Outlook  November, 13th, 2009 • Jump in September Trade Deficit Places Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Annual CPI Inflation to Surge, Turning Positive by November
• Credit Squeeze Intensifies
No. 256: Updated General Outlook, Employment/Unemployment, Money Supply  November, 6th, 2009 • Annual Payroll Loss Rivals End of World War II Production Shutdown
• Unemployment Jumps to 10.2% (22.1% SGS)
• Systemic Liquidity Problems Still Intensifying
• Fed Continues to Explode Monetary Base
No. 255: Brief Update - Friday’s Employment/Unemployment Release  November, 4th, 2009 • Employment Situation Continues to Deteriorate
No. 254: Updated Economic Outlook, GDP, Durable Goods, Home Sales  October, 29th, 2009 • Recession Is Not Over / Quarterly GDP Growth Is Not Sustainable, with 92% of Growth in Nonrecurring Factors
• Annual GDP Down 2.3% (5.7% SGS)
• 4th-Quarter GDP Should Resume Quarter-to-Quarter Decline
• Durable Goods Orders at 1997 Level
• Help-Wanted Advertising at New 58-Year Low
No. 253: GDP Outlook, Surging Monetary Base  October, 27th, 2009 • Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High
• Recession Not Over Despite a Positive GDP Quarter
No. 252: General Outlook, Housing, Production and PPI  October, 20th, 2009

• Key Indicators Continue Bottom-Bouncing at Low-Level Plateaus of Business Activity
• 10 Years of Production Growth Has Evaporated, All Post-World War II Housing Growth Is Gone
• Positive Quarterly 3rd-Qtr GDP Growth Would Not Mean Recession’s End
• PPI Annual Inflation Should Turn Positive by Year-End
No. 251: General Outlook, CPI and Retail Sales  October, 15th, 2009 • September Annual Inflation -1.3% (CPI-U), 6.1% (SGS)
• CPI-U Inflation Spike Due by Year-End
• No Recovery: September Real Retail Sales Continued Bottom-Bouncing at Low-Level Plateau
• 10 Years of Retail Sales Growth Gone
No. 250: General Outlook and Trade Data Update  October, 9th, 2009 • Bernanke Pushes Monetary-Base Panic Button
• M3 Headed for Still Weaker Growth
• Substance Behind U.S. Dollar Concerns and Gold Rally
• FY2009 Government Obligations Likely Hit $75 Trillion
• Trade Deterioration Should Be Minor Drag on 3q09 GDP
• Economic and Solvency Crises Continue, Inflation Risk Ahead
Flash Update  October, 2nd, 2009

• BLS Revision Nightmare: March 2009 Payrolls Overstated by 824,000
• Birth-Death Model Falsely Boosting Jobs Reporting in Recession Environment
• Monthly Jobs Loss of 263,000 (Payroll Survey) versus Monthly Employment Decline of 710,000 (Household Survey)
• September Unemployment Rates: U.3 = 9.8%, U.6 = 17.0%, SGS = 21.4%
Flash Update  September, 30th, 2009 • 2nd-Q GDP Decline Narrowed in Revision (to -0.8% from -1.0%), but GNP and GDI Contractions Deepened (GNP to -1.0% from -0.8%, GDI to -2.6% from -2.1%)
• Annual GDP Contraction Remained Worst of Post-World War II Era
Flash Update  September, 25th, 2009 • Economic and Liquidity Crises Remain Ongoing
• No Recovery in New Orders or Housing
• Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High
Flash Update  September, 16th, 2009 • U.S. Recession Is Not Over
• With Clunker Rebates in New Car Prices, Monthly CPI Gained 0.7% Instead of 0.4%
• CPI-U Annual Inflation -1.5% (SGS +6.0%)
• Industrial Production Boosted by Clunkers and Weather
Flash Update  September, 15th, 2009 • 2.7% Retail Sales Jump Reflected Inflation and One-Time Clunker Spikes
• “Core” Retail Sales Up 2.0% (0.2% Net of Clunkers)
• Wholesale Inflation Soared with Oil
Flash Update  September, 12th, 2009 • Annual Broad Money Growth Slowed Sharply in August
• Fed’s Beige Book Generally Indicated Severe Bottom Bouncing
• Irregular Cash-for-Clunkers Impact in Pending Economic and Inflation Numbers
Flash Update  September, 10th, 2009 • Widening July Trade Deficit Played Some Catch-Up
• Structural Limitations: Consumer Unable to Support or Sustain Economic Growth
Flash Update  September, 4th, 2009 • Economic Downturn Deepens Anew
• Annual Payroll Decline Is Worst of Downturn
• Monthly Payroll Decline Was 300,000, Net of Renewed Seasonal Factor Games
• Broad Unemployment Jumped 0.5% to 16.8% (U-6), 21.1% (SGS)
Alert  September, 2nd, 2009 • Something Brewing in Systemic Solvency Crisis?
• No Substance to “Economic Recovery”
• U.S. Taxpayer-Subsidized Deflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Labor Statistics?
Flash Update  August, 27th, 2009 • Gross Domestic Income Down 2.1% in 2nd Quarter, with Record 4.6% Annual Decline
• Housing and Durable Goods Not Signaling Recovery
Flash Update  August, 18th, 2009 • July Housing Starts Showed Ongoing Depression
• Volatile PPI Reflected Unusual Seasonal Factors
• Journalists Too Overworked to Handle Poverty Report?
Flash Update  August, 14th, 2009 • Official July CPI-U Annual Inflation of -2.1% (SGS +5.4%)
• Monthly and Annual CPI Should Jump in August
• Net of Bad Auto Seasonals, July Industrial Production Contracted
Flash Update  August, 13th, 2009 • July Retail Sales Continued Historic Bottom-Bouncing
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Gained 0.22% versus Aggregate 0.05% Contraction
• 12-Month “Official” Federal Deficit Topped $1.3 Trillion, Gross Federal Debt Up $2.1 Trillion
Flash Update  August, 7th, 2009 • Depression-Warped Seasonal Factors Improved Reporting of July Employment and Unemployment, Purchasing Managers Manufacturing
• Watch Out for Sharply Negative Economic Surprises Next Month
• Broad Money Growth Continues Signaling Ongoing Crises
Flash Update  July, 31st, 2009 • GDP Shows Most Severe Recession Since Great Depression
• Second-Quarter GDP Annual Contraction Was Worst Ever
• Recession Is Not Ending
• Annual Durable Goods Plunge Continued In Great Depression Territory
• Broad Money Growth Still Slowing
• Unemployment Skew Next Week?
Flash Update  July, 28th, 2009 Chart of existing home sales

• Depression Data Distortions Fuel Recovery Mania
• Statistically Insignificant Monthly Changes amidst Severe Bottom Bouncing
• Foreclosures Warp New and Existing Home Sales
• Shy of a Political Fix, Second-Quarter GDP Consensus Is Too Optimistic
Newsletter (Issue No. 51)  July, 20th, 2009 • Current Recession Now Longest Since Great Depression
• June U-6 Unemployment Rate Topped 20% (25% SGS) in Michigan, Oregon, Nevada, California, South Carolina and Rhode Island
• Pressures Will Mount for New Stimulus and Bailouts
• Spreading Depression Creates Its Own Statistical Distortions
• Inflation Signs Begin to Surface
• U.S. Dollar Remains the Key to the Markets and Inflation
• The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises show no signs of abating, despite the happy hype out of Washington and Wall Street. While the pending second-quarter GDP estimate likely will show a narrowing quarterly contraction, such will be against a deepening annual downturn and revisions that should show the recession to have been not only longer and deeper than previously reported, but also the most severe recession since the shutdown of war production after World War II. Irrespective of media excitement around the fluttering of often statistically-insignificant or seasonally-warped monthly numbers, annual growth rates in key series have been holding at or pushing to new historic or post-war lows.
Flash Update  July, 15th, 2009 • Inflation Accelerates (Annualized June Rate of 9.3%)
• June CPI-U Annual Deflation of 1.4% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.1% Inflation
• Quarterly Production and Real Retail Sales Contractions Confirm Ongoing Recession
Flash Update  July, 14th, 2009 • June Retail Sales Gain Due to Rising Inflation
• “Core” Monthly Retail Sales Rose 0.26% versus Total 0.65%
• PPI Inflation Surge Reflects More Than Oil Prices, Annual Change Reverses Direction of 10-Month Downtrend
• Gross Federal Debt Up More Than $2 Trillion Year-to-Year
Flash Update  July, 10th, 2009 • No Abatement in U.S. Economic or Solvency Crises
• May Trade Data Suggest U.S. Business Activity Suffering More Than Rest of World
• Broad Money Growth Slows Anew
• New Stimulus and Bailout Packages Likely
Flash Update  July, 2nd, 2009

• June Jobs Loss Was 513,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias, Likely Topped 700,000 with Birth-Death Machinations
• Payroll Employment Growth Overstatement Could Top 2.5 Million per Year with Birth-Death Modeling
• Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.2%, Equal to 1958 Trough and Near 1949 Trough
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.6%
Flash Update  June, 30th, 2009 • Leading Employment Indicators Suggest Continued Deterioration
Flash Update  June, 25th, 2009 • GDP Revisions Little More Than Statistical Noise, but Watch Out for July 31st Benchmark Revisions
• Annual Plunge in Durable Goods Orders Continued
• Worst of the Downturn Still is Ahead
Flash Update  June, 17th, 2009 • May CPI-U Annual Deflation of 1.3% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.1% Inflation
• Seasonal Adjustments Continue to Skew Inflation Reporting
• May Annual Production Fell at Fastest Pace Since Post-World War II Production Shutdown
• May Annual Decline in Housing Starts Continued Record Fall-Off, Monthly Gain Lacked Statistical Significance
Flash Update  June, 11th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Plunge Worst of Post-World War II Era
• May “Core” Monthly Retail Sales Gained 0.15% versus 0.46% Total
• Corrected Merchandise Trade Data Added $20 Billion to 2008 Deficit
• Annual Surge in Gross Federal Debt Nears $2 Trillion, Spiking Treasury Yields
Flash Update  June, 8th, 2009 • May M3 Money Supply Annual Growth Showed Minimal Uptick
• Fed’s Dollar Debasement Continues and Should Intensify
Flash Update  June, 5th, 2009 • May Jobs Loss Was About 538,000 Net of Biases versus 345,000 Official Decline
• Birth-Death Model Upside Bias Increased by 27%
• Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.0%
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.5%
Flash Update  May, 29th, 2009 • Dollar Debasement Progresses
• GNP Shows Intensifying Recession
• Most Economic Data Show Deepening Annual Plunges and Downside Prior-Period Revisions
Flash Update  May, 20th, 2009 • Green Shoots of Inflation
• April Housing Starts in Great Depression-Like 54% Annual Tumble
Flash Update  May, 15th, 2009 • April CPI-U Annual Deflation of 0.7% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.7% Inflation
• Seasonal Factors Mask Rising Monthly Energy Costs
• Peak-to-April Industrial Production Is Down a Depression-Like 16%
Flash Update  May, 13th, 2009 • New Accounting Fraud for Monthly Federal Deficit Reporting
• Annual Retail Sales Plunge a Depression-Like 10.1%
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.1% versus Official 0.4% Decline
Flash Update  May, 8th, 2009 • Better-Than-Expected April Jobs Report Had A Bad Odor to It
• 539,000 Jobs Loss was 605,000 Net of Revisions, 491,000 Net of CSFB
• Birth-Death Bias Showed Unusual Jump in April
Flash Update  May, 4th, 2009 • No Recovery, As Employment Conditions Weaken
• Systemic Solvency Crisis Intensifies As Broad Money Growth Softens Further
• U.S. Dollar Selling Could Pick Up Along with Fed’s Ongoing Dollar Debasement Efforts
Flash Update  April, 29th, 2009 • Not Adjusted for Inflation, Annual GDP Decline Is First Since 1958
• Adjusted for Inflation, Annual Decline in Gimmicked GDP Falls to 1982 Levels
Flash Update  April, 27th, 2009 • “Adverse” Stress Test Assumptions Close to Standard CBO Projections
• Economy Is Not in Recovery
• More than Half of Existing Home Sales Are “Distressed”
Newsletter (Issue No. 50)  April, 20th, 2009 • Worst Still Ahead for Economy and Solvency Crisis
• Faulty Data, Government/Fed Obfuscation Are No Basis for Rebuilding Confidence
• Do Not Mistake Declining Living Standards for Deflation
• Resurgent Inflation Likely to Be Triggered by U.S. Dollar Weakness
• Greenback’s Credibility Cracks as Fed Accelerates Dollar Debasement
Flash Update  April, 15th, 2009 • March Annual CPI-U Declined by 0.38% (SGS Gained 7.3%)
• First Official Deflation in 54 Years (But They Don’t Calculate CPI Like They Did in 1955)
• Annual Industrial Production Collapse Worst Since Shutdown Following WWII
• First Quarter Industrial Production Plunged an Annualized 20%
Flash Update  April, 14th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Contraction Remains at Post-World War II Era Lows
• “Core” March Retail Sales Down 1.4%
• PPI Takes Energy Cost Hit Despite Rising Oil Prices
Flash Update  April, 9th, 2009 • Reported Trade Deficit Narrowing Suggests U.S. Recession Is Worse than Downturn in Rest of World
Flash Update  April, 3rd, 2009 • Seriously Flawed BLS Payroll Reporting
• March Payroll Loss Was 750,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias, 749,000 Net of Reporting Revisions
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate at 19.8%
Flash Update  March, 30th, 2009 • Broad Money Growth Still Slowing
• March Employment Conditions Deteriorated Sharply
• March Jobs Number Open to Positive Massaging
Flash Update  March, 26th, 2009 • U.S. Dollar Moving Towards the Brink, Again
• 4th-Qtr Gross Domestic Income Down 7.5%
Flash Update  March, 25th, 2009 • Durable Goods Orders Tumble in Record Annual Decline
• Pattern of Happy Spins Being Given to Volatile Monthly Data
Alert  March, 23rd, 2009 • Fed’s Effort at Dollar Debasement Had Some Immediate “Success”
Flash Update  March, 18th, 2009 • Annual CPI-U Inches Higher to 0.24% (SGS 7.7%)
• Housing Starts Annual Plunge at Historic Extreme
Alert  March, 16th, 2009 • Swiss Franc’s Relative Strength Persists Despite Official Debasement Efforts
• “Absolute Confidence in Soundness” of U.S. Treasuries Is Hype
• Far From Over, U.S. Economic Downturn Still Is Unfolding
Flash Update  March, 12th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Contraction Remains Worst of Post-World War II Era
• “Core” February Retail Sales Down 0.3%
• February 12-Month Rolling Federal Deficit at $955 Billion
Alert  March, 9th, 2009 • Broad Money Supply Growth Slows in February, Suggesting Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Issues
• Fed Likely to Monetize Treasury Debt
• Other Than Crisis-Driven Dollar Demand, U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Are Sharply Negative and Deteriorating
Flash Update  March, 6th, 2009 • February Payroll Loss Was 899,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Annual Percentage Contraction in Jobs at 50-Year Low
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate at 19.1%
Flash Update  February, 27th, 2009 • Budget Containment and a Normal 2010 Economy Are Nonsense
• Economic Data Remain Consistent with 10%-Plus Hit to Business Activity
• Upward Revision to GDP Inflation
• Major Downward Revisions Likely to 2008 GDP
• Intensifying Systemic Solvency Crisis
Flash Update  February, 20th, 2009 • CPI-U Just Escaped Formal Deflation, Again
• Housing and Real Retail Sales Annual Contractions at Historic Lows
• Industrial Production Annual Contraction Hit 10%
Newsletter (Issue No. 49)  February, 16th, 2009 • Stimulus and Bailout Packages Will Not Reverse the Structural Depression or Resolve the Deepening Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• Fed Monetization of Stimulus-Related Debt Would Spike Inflation
• Cumulative 4.7 Million Jobs Lost to Trade Deficit
• U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Remain Bleak versus Rest of World
• It may be hard for the federal government to offer $787 billion dollars in stimulus without having a noticeably positive impact on economic activity, but it can be done. Despite prior hype on employment, annual growth in inflation-adjusted retail sales is the first major economic measure to trigger a legitimate “worst since the Great Depression” comparison. The economic contraction now is severe enough to consume the stimulus without affected business activity ever breaking above water. Also, too little of the stimulus package addresses the structural issues driving the downturn. Even if the structural problems were addressed, fundamental recovery would be measured in years, at best. Further, the systemic-solvency crisis is deepening again, with bailout exposures opening up to almost unlimited costs. That situation increasingly looks like it will involve the nationalization of major banks.
Flash Update  February, 12th, 2009 • Reflecting Revisions and Inflation, January Retail Sales Bottom-Bounced at Low-Level Plateau
• “Core” Retail Sales up 0.7% versus Official 1.0%
• December Trade Deficit Suggested 4th-Qtr GDP Downward Revision
Flash Update  February, 10th, 2009 • Pending Relief Packages of Limited Positive Impact
Flash Update  February, 6th, 2009 • January Jobs Loss Was 716,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (Instead of Official 598,000 Loss)
• Downside Benchmark Growth-Pattern Revisions Were Mostly Pre-Election
• Alternate-Unemployment Rate Hits 18%
Flash Update  February, 3rd, 2009 • Unusual Features in Upcoming Employment Report
• Annual Broad Money Growth Continues to Expand
• Economic Freefall Eventually Sees Some Bottom-Bouncing
Flash Update  January, 30th, 2009 • Nominal GDP Contraction Worst in 50 Years
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contraction for
Durable Goods (43.3%)
• Monetary Base Growth Flattens Out (at 103%)
Flash Update  January, 23rd, 2009 • Major Revisions Show Stronger Broad Money Growth
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contraction for Housing Starts (68.5%)
• Sharp Nominal Contraction Pending for 4th-Quarter GDP
Flash Update  January, 16th, 2009 • CPI-U Dodges Deflation Bullet
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contractions for Real Retail Sales (17.1%) and Industrial Production (11.5%)
• Broad Money Growth Surge Intensifies
• Money Supply Velocity Also Likely in Upturn
Flash Update  January, 14th, 2009 • Retail Sales Plummet Worse Than Headline Number
• Pattern Continues of Downward Revisions to Previously Stronger Headline Economic Numbers
Flash Update  January, 9th, 2009

• December Jobs Loss Was 697,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (Instead of Official 524,000 Loss)
• Congressional Budget Office Estimates Depression Era-Like GDP Drop
Newsletter (Issue No. 48)  January, 3rd, 2009 • Multiple-Dip Depression Unfolds
• Solvency Crisis to Engulf U.S. Government Finances
• Stimulus Efforts Would Enhance Hyperinflation Risk
• Broad Money Growth Spikes

By April, the rapidly deteriorating recession will be viewed commonly as the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Fearing same, the incoming Obama Administration is promising stimulus in the form of massive federal spending. Concerns about the government’s fiscal condition can wait until the economy recovers, we are being told. A similar pacifying assurance presumably extends to inflation concerns as well. Unfortunately, with the economy in a structural downturn and with the U.S. government effectively bankrupt, there can be no rapid or normal recovery. As inflationary pressures mount anew and the financial markets increasingly shun U.S. Treasuries, an inflationary depression can evolve quickly into a hyperinflationary great depression. Although hyperinflation became inevitable in the last decade, the onset of the process just recently was triggered by Fed and the Treasury actions in addressing the systemic solvency crisis. The process would be accelerated by unfettered and
unfunded government spending that appears to loom in early 2009.
Flash Update  December, 31st, 2008 • M3 Growth Is Accelerating
Flash Update  December, 23rd, 2008 • “Final” 3rd-Quarter GDP Estimate Showed Higher Inflation
• Big Contraction in Nominal 4th-Quarter GDP?
Alert  December, 20th, 2008 • Growth Surges/Accelerates in Broad Money Components
• Monetary Base Up 97.5% Year/Year
• Fed Actions Begin to Kick In — For Better and Worse
• U.S. Dollar Remains Key to Markets
Flash Update  December, 16th, 2008 • Annual CPI Slowed to 1.1% (9.3% SGS) in November
• November Real Retail Sales Down 8.3% Year-to-Year
• Production Falling at 10% Annualized Quarterly Pace
• Money Growth Beginning to Spike?
Alert  December, 15th, 2008 • Treasury Reports 2008 Federal Deficit of $1.009 Trillion (GAAP-Based), $5.1 Trillion Including Social Security/Medicare
• Total U.S. Government Obligations at $66 Trillion
Flash Update  December, 12th, 2008 • Recent Economic Growth Overstatements Evident in Post-Election Revisions • Retail Sales Series Signals Worse Times Ahead • November Inflation to Take Heavy Oil-Related Hit
Flash Update  December, 5th, 2008 • November Jobs Plummet 732,000 Net of Revisions, Down 873,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Official Recession Start Is Late, As Usual
• Required Reserves Surge Anew

Flash Update  November, 30th, 2008 • Employment Outlook Sinks
• 3rd-Qtr Gross Domestic Income Contracted Year-to-Year
• Broad Money Growth Stagnant in Latest Week
Flash Update  November, 23rd, 2008 • Monetary Base Annual Growth Now at 75.5%
• Systemic Solvency Crisis Intensifies Anew
• Increased Nationalization of U.S. Banks Ahead?
Flash Update  November, 19th, 2008 • Annual CPI Inflation Slowed to 3.7% (11.6% SGS) in October
• Inflation/Deflation Traditionally Measured in Terms of Annual Change
• Industrial Production, Housing Starts Showed Deepening Downturn
Newsletter (Issue No. 47)  November, 14th, 2008 • Still-Intensifying U.S. Inflationary Recession
• Systemic Solvency Crisis
• Market Instability Not Contained
• Obama Faces Same Limited Options as Bush
• Hyperinflation Possible in 2009 •
Despite extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and other central banks and finance ministries, the global solvency crises, financial panics and market distortions and instabilities continue. While the collapse of a functional U.S. banking system has been avoided, so far, bank lending has not resumed meaningfully, and other weak links in the economy appear ready to break. Possible failures of the “Big-Three” U.S. automakers now are touted in the financial media. Where GM once boasted, “What is good for General Motors is good for America,” a failure there would be the ultimate symbol of structural destruction that has sapped U.S. economic activity for decades. Structural issues drove the economy into deep recession well before any crises exacerbations. With the economy in recession, oil prices down and the dollar stronger, deflation concerns abound. Yet, inflation ultimately is a monetary phenomenon, and the Fed’s recent monetary incontinence promises much higher inflation ahead, regardless of near-term CPI gyrations from the pre-election plunge in gasoline prices.
Flash Update  November, 7th, 2008 • Bureau of Labor Statistics Plays Post-Election Catch-Up
• October 240K Payroll Loss: 419K Loss Net of Revisions, 308K Loss Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Broad Unemployment Rate Highest of Current Series
• Monetary Base Surge Continues: Up 48.2% Year/Year
Flash Update  November, 6th, 2008 • October Employment Conditions Should Show Marked Deterioration
Flash Update  October, 30th, 2008 • Gimmicked GDP Overstatement Continues, Despite Reported Contraction
• GDP Inflation Hits 18-Year High
• “Recession” Dates Back to 4th-Quarter 2006
Flash Update  October, 26th, 2008
• Bank Lending Picks Up
• Monetary Base Up 38.0% Year-to-Year
• Near-Term U.S. Debt Default Unlikely, Unless Lenders Request Non-Dollar Issuance
• Administration Signals Reporting of 3rd-Qtr GDP Contraction
Special Update  October, 16th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession Remains Intact and Intensifies
• Federal Debt Jumps $1.25 Trillion Year/Year, $650 Billion in Six Weeks
• Inflation Holds Despite Oil Sell-Off
• 3rd-Quarter Real Retail Sales Plunge Annualized 10.1%, 4.2% Year/Year
• 3rd-Quarter Industrial Production Down for Second Consecutive Quarter, Year/Year
Flash Update  October, 10th, 2008 • Latest Monetary Base Jumped 16.8% Year-to-Year
• September M3 Growth Expanded Year-to-Year and Month-to-Month
Alert  October, 8th, 2008 • Fed and Treasury Continue Propping the System At All Costs (Particularly Inflation)
• Intensifying Inflationary Recession Concerns Overshadowed by Systemic Risks
Alert  October, 3rd, 2008 • Fed Began Sidestepping No “Bailout” Before First House Vote
• M1 and M2 Annualized Surges of 800% and 200% are Panic Distortions (Offset in M3)
• Jobs Plunged by 219,000 Net of Concurrent-Seasonal-Factor Bias
• “Core” Inflation Turned Higher
Newsletter (Issue No. 46)  September, 29th, 2008 • Washington Bailout Likely Will Not End Crisis • Cost of Saving the System Is Inflation • Inflationary Recession Deepens Rapidly • Gold Should Benefit from Inflation-Hedge and Safe-Haven Qualities
In terms of magnitude, global scope and the underlying complexity and interdependencies of troubled financial instruments, the systemic solvency upheaval roiling the U.S. and global financial markets is without precedence. The crisis is the natural outcome of decades of financial leverage being built upon financial leverage; of income variance being pushed even beyond that which preceded the 1929 financial panic…
Alert  September, 26th, 2008 • Money Supply Begins to Reflect Intensifying Solvency Crisis
• Recession Deepens Despite Still-Bogus GDP Reporting
• Financial Storm Likely to Worsen, Risks Mount of Systemic Instability
Washington Journal, C-SPAN  September, 25th, 2008 John Williams on C-SPAN TV John Williams talks and takes call-in questions about how misreporting of government data has contributed to the current financial crisis.
Watch at the CSPAN Video Library
Alert  September, 22nd, 2008 • Government Actions Will Spike Money Supply
• Highly Unlikely That the Financial Storm Has Passed
• Recession Was Well Underway Before the Housing/Mortgage Crisis Broke
Alert  September, 17th, 2008 • Treasury and Fed Rev Up the Currency Printing Presses
• Has a Run on the System Begun?
• The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation
Flash Update  September, 16th, 2008 • Annual August CPI-U at 5.4% (13.2% SGS)
• Industrial Production Tumbles Like We’re in a Recession
• CPI Locks in August and Annual Real Retail Sales Contractions
Alert  September, 15th, 2008 • Systemic Risk Appears Intensified by Abandonment of Lehman
• Markets Face Extreme Volatility and Distortions, with Heavy Intervention
Flash Update  September, 12th, 2008 • “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.1% Month-to-Month, 1.7% Year-to-Year
• PPI Absorbed Oil Selling with Minimal Annual-Inflation Impact
• Trade Revisions Show Delayed Import Reporting, Suggest Downward GDP Revisions
Flash Update  September, 10th, 2008 • August M3 Estimated up 14% Year-to-Year, 0.4% Month-to-Month
• Bailouts Should Intensify Inflationary Pressures
• Unusual Systemic Risks
Flash Update  September, 5th, 2008 • Employment/Unemployment Data Confirm Deepening Recession
• Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Suggests 123,000 July Jobs Loss
• M3 Growth Remains Positive but Slowing
Flash Update  August, 28th, 2008 • Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Is in Formal Recession
• New Orders for Durables Goods Sank Year-to-Year
Flash Update  August, 25th, 2008 • Financial Storm Continues, per Bernanke
• Pending GDP Upward Revision Surge Still Nonsense
Flash Update  August, 21st, 2008 • July M3 Expanded Month-to-Month, Year-to-Year
• Inflationary Recession Continues to Intensify
• Broad Outlook Unchanged
Flash Update  August, 14th, 2008 • Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to 5.6% (13.4% SGS)
• Annual CPI-W Rose to 6.2%
• Real July Retail Sales Fell 0.9% Month/Month, Down 2.7% Year/Year
Newsletter (Issue No. 45)  August, 13th, 2008 • Dollar Rally Should Prove Short-Lived — Underlying Fundamentals Deteriorating
• Extraordinarily High Systemic Risks — Depositors Moving to Cash?
• U.S. Treasuries at Risk of Downgrade?
• Economic Activity Tumbles as Inflation Intensifies
• GDP Revisions Suggest Shadow of Protracted Recession
• Despite orchestrated media and market hype to the contrary, there has been absolutely no positive shift in underlying fundamentals driving the still-unfolding economic, financial-market and systemic-stability crises.
Flash Update  August, 13th, 2008 • Real July Retail Sales Continue Monthly and Annual Contractions
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.33% versus 0.12% Aggregate Contraction
ALERT  August, 12th, 2008 • U.S. Dollar Strength Has No Fundamental Basis Other Than Temporary War Effects
• U.S. Dollar Has Not Bottomed
• Gold and Oil Prices Have Not Topped
Flash Update  August, 1st, 2008 • July Payrolls Sink Year-to-Year
• Broad Unemployment Rate Surges to 10.3% from 9.9% (SGS 14.3%)
• Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Flips
Flash Update  July, 31st, 2008 • GDP Report is Political Garbage
• Lowest GDP Inflation in 10 Years Generates Strong Growth Report
• Downward Revisions Put 4th-Quarter in Contraction
Flash Update  July, 30th, 2008 • Systemic Instability Continues
• Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Show No Turnaround
• Pending Nonsensical GDP Growth Surge?
House Financial Services Hearing  July, 28th, 2008 John Williams gave testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 24th.
Flash Update  July, 22nd, 2008 • Special Note to Subscribers: Congressional Testimony
• Broad Money Growth Remains Inflationary
• Deepening Recession Should Be Evident in Pending Payrolls, New Orders
• No Recession per GDP Expectations, But …
Flash Update  July, 16th, 2008 • Dire Implications for U.S. Markets, U.S. Budget Deficit
• Annual CPI-U Surges to 5.0% (SGS 12.6%)
• “Core” Inflation Numbers Not Believable
• Retail Sales and Industrial Production in Sharp Quarterly Contractions
Flash Update  July, 15th, 2008 • “Core” June Retail Sales Fell 0.7% versus 0.1% Reported Total Gain
• Tax Rebate Benefit Evaporates
• June PPI Gain of 1.8% Remained Well Shy of Reality
Flash Update  July, 10th, 2008 • Spike in Annual Inflation Due Next Week
• The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation
• Monetary Theory and Limits of Hard Data
Flash Update  July, 3rd, 2008 • June Payrolls Turned Negative Year-to-Year
• Monthly Payrolls Dropped by 147,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias
• Broadest Unemployment Rate Jumps by 0.2%
• Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index “Gain” Due to Reweightings
Flash Update  June, 30th, 2008 • Abysmal Business Data Continue
• Unprecedented Plunges in Consumer Confidence Measures
• Good Time for the Rest of the World to Dump the Dollar
Flash Update  June, 22nd, 2008 • Industrial Production Contracts Year-to-Year
• Housing Starts in Steepest Annual Decline since Depths of 1990/1991 Recession
• No Signs of Abatement in Inflationary Recession
Flash Update  June, 13th, 2008 • Annual Inflation Surge Begins (4.2% BLS, 11.8% SGS-Alternate)
• Monthly Inflation Still Understated
• General Outlook Unchanged
Flash Update  June, 12th, 2008 • Core Retail Sales Up 0.86%
• Unusual Revisions and Seasonal Factors in Data
May 2008 Newsletter  June, 10th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession and Banking Crises Continue to Intensify
• Market Fantasies of Contained Crises Begin to Fade
• Severe Inflation Surge in Offing
• [Reporting/Market Focus] Evidence Mounts for Manipulation of Key Headline Economic Numbers

• There is no question of the economy being in an intensifying inflationary recession. Market fantasies of a bottomed downturn and a banking system on the mend got a jolt of reality last week, and regardless of any further jolts of alternating market pressures, the longer range outlook remains bleak for U.S. equities, bonds and the dollar but remains brilliant for gold.
Flash Update  June, 6th, 2008 • May Payrolls Plunged 134,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias
• Employment and Unemployment Reports Consistent with Deepening Recession
Flash Update  June, 3rd, 2008 • A Case for Manipulation of Headline Payroll Employment Numbers
Hyperinflation Special Report  June, 2nd, 2008 • Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase of Monetary Inflation
• Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early As 2010
Flash Update  May, 29th, 2008 • First-Quarter GDI Growth Near Outright Recession
• Wall Street Spinmeisters Grasp for Straws as Business Contraction Intensifies
Flash Update  May, 22nd, 2008 • U.S. Currency Now Backed by Collateralized Debt Obligations
• Seasonal Adjustments Used to Eviscerate Reported Inflation
• Recession Deepens
Flash Update  May, 14th, 2008 • April’s Core Retail Sales Fell 0.3%
• Thank Goodness for Seasonal Factors and Collapsing Gasoline Prices
Flash Update  May, 12th, 2008 • M3 Growth Slowed in April — Still at 1971 High
• March Trade Deficit “Improvement” Not Credible
Flash Update  May, 2nd, 2008 • Chances of Economic Rebound Now Are Nil
• GDP and Jobs Data Appear Rigged
• Other Numbers Confirm Intensifying Inflationary Recession
April 2008 Newsletter  April, 29th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession and Banking Crises Intensify
• 4th-Quarter 2007 Gross Domestic Income Contracted 1.0%
• Covert Intervention in Currency and Gold Markets Likely
• Underlying economic and banking system fundamentals rapidly are getting worse, not suddenly better as touted in Wall Street’s fantasies. Another tall tale is of the Fed’s valiant fight against recession, while containing inflation. Now that the economy has been turned, the story goes, the Fed can slowdown or eliminate its easing so as to concentrate on its inflation fight. What nonsense! The Fed’s primary concern remains preventing a systemic financial collapse; everything else is secondary. The Fed has very limited ability at present either to stimulate the economy or to contain inflation, despite severe problems in both areas.
Flash Update  April, 23rd, 2008 • Is The First-Quarter GDP Fix In?
• Oil Prices Cannot Double Without Serious Consequences
Flash Update  April, 16th, 2008 • Inflation Fantasy
• Real Retail Sales Contracted an Annualized 4.2% in First Quarter
• First-Quarter GDP Contraction Locked In?
Flash Update  April, 14th, 2008 • March “Core” Retail Sales Unchanged for Month, Down Year-to-Year
• Trade Data Enhance Prospects for 1st-Quarter GDP Contraction
Flash Update  April, 4th, 2008 • Heavily Gimmicked Payroll Contraction Was Much Worse in Reality
• Other Key Data Also Confirm Sharply Deteriorating Inflationary Recession
Flash Update  March, 30th, 2008 • Money Growth Continues Surging
• Cautions on Home Sales and Price Data
• Treasury and Fed Will Accept Any Cost to Save System
Flash Update  March, 24th, 2008 • It’s Not Even Close to Being Over
• Inflationary Recession and Systemic Solvency Crisis Remain
• Gold Buying and Dollar Dumping Still Are Nascent
Flash Update  March, 18th, 2008 • Fed Panic Continues in Pursuit of Systemic Salvation
• Inflation Understatement Used to Justify Fed Easings?
• Industrial Production Plunge Could Set Second Timing-Point for Official Recession
February/March 2008 Newsletter  March, 16th, 2008 • Irrespective of Any Looming Central Bank or Central Government Interventions or
Other Activity, the Financial-Economic-Systemic Crisis Is Going to Get Much Worse
• Fed Abandons Inflation Fight
• Depression or Recession Depends on Depth of Downturn
• Gold Buying and Dollar Selling Muted by Covert Intervention?
• The systemic solvency/liquidity crisis has intensified at an accelerating pace, with three major, emergency Federal Reserve actions seen in the eight days through Friday. As we go to press Sunday afternoon, no new actions have been announced, but circumstances are so unstable that most anything is possible, including massive interventions in the markets as well as unconventional actions by central banks or central governments, coordinated or otherwise. Flash Updates or Alerts will be posted as needed to address developments.
Flash Update  March, 14th, 2008 • February’s Unchanged CPI Not Credible
Flash Update  March, 13th, 2008 • “Core” Retail Sales down 0.55% versus 0.56% Decline in Full Series
• Budget Deficit Surges
Flash Update  March, 11th, 2008 • Solvency Crisis Deteriorates
Flash Update  March, 10th, 2008 • Fed Sets Currency Printing Presses at Full Blast
• February M3 Growth at Record 16.8%
Alert  March, 5th, 2008 • M3 Growth Hits All-Time High
• Hints of Systemic Unraveling Suggest Unusual Problems
• Risks Mount of Non-Traditional Federal Reserve/Treasury Actions
CNN Money Interview  February, 28th, 2008 Greg Hunter and John Williams on screenJohn Williams is interviewed on CNN by Greg Hunter.   The record growth in M3 is discussed and its implications for future inflation. Click here or on the image to view the interview.
Flash Update  February, 28th, 2008 • Recession Will Not Contain the Inflation Problem
• Money Growth Appears to be Surging
• Bernanke Remains Focused on Banking System Solvency, or Lack of Same
Flash Update  February, 20th, 2008 • Monthly CPI Surge of 0.64% Masked by Seasonal Factor Revisions
• January Annual CPI Inflation at 4.28% (11.8% SGS-Alternate)
• Revisions Show Stronger Inflation
Flash Update  February, 16th, 2008 • Money Supply Growth Surges Anew
• Nonborrowed Reserves Plummet Further
• SGS Will Continue Abandoned Government Economic Indicators Service
• Financial Crises Intensify

Flash Update  February, 13th, 2008 • Real Retail Sales Continue Year-to-Year Collapse
• Core Retail Sales Up 0.11% for the Month
January 2008 Edition  February, 11th, 2008 • Fed Saves the System — Almost
• As Fed Lending to Banks Tops Pre-1933 Bank Holiday
• Inflationary Recession Continues to Intensify
• Weak Economy Does Not Mean Lower Gold Prices
• Perils of Trying to Mimic Bad Government Data
• But for systemic intervention and manipulations by the Federal Reserve, it appears we might be contemplating a collapsed U.S. banking system and a looming deflationary great depression that could have dwarfed the bad times of the 1930s. Such is the good news. The bad news is that with those same systemic interventions, the Fed is locking in a hyperinflationary great depression in the decade ahead, with the turmoil possibly breaking by 2010 or earlier.
• Also, this month’s Reporting/Market Focus examines the Payroll Employment Benchmark Revision.

Flash Update  February, 5th, 2008 • Mr. Bernanke Dispatches the Helicopters
• Solvency and Liquidity Problems Continue
• Fed Emergency Actions Are Keeping Banking System Afloat
Flash Update  February, 1st, 2008 • Recession in the Numbers
• M3 Growth Appears To Be Firming Again
Flash Update  January, 28th, 2008 • Outright Recession Reporting Unlikely for 4th-Quarter GDP or January Jobs
• Inflation and Dollar Concerns Ignored by Fed
Alert  January, 22nd, 2008 • Fed Panic Indicates Mounting Instabilities
• Currency, Gold and Oil Market Intervention Highly Likely
Flash Update  January, 19th, 2008 • Gimmicked Stimulus Cannot Reverse Structural Downturn
• Quarterly Industrial Production Contracted
• Housing Starts Plunge
• CPI Scuttled Annual Retail Sales
Flash Update  January, 15th, 2008 • Retail Sales Revisions Show Sharper Downturn
• Inflation Irregularities Also Signal Reporting Distortions
Flash Update  January, 13th, 2008 • Recession Recognition Settles In
• Moody’s Cautions on U.S. Credit Rating
• December M3 Growth at 15.2%
Flash Update  January, 6th, 2008 • The Tempest Intensifies
• December Payrolls Really Contracted
• U.6 Unemployment Rate Surged to 8.8%
• Money Growth Remains a Problem
December 2007 Edition  January, 2nd, 2008 • Actual 2007 Federal Deficit Topped $4.0 Trillion
• Fed Allows Strongest Money Growth in 36 Years
• Inflationary Recession Intensifies Sharply
• Dollar and Gold Breathers Are Proving Short-Lived
• Solvency Crisis Intensifies as System Careens Towards Economic and Financial Disaster
• Pushing the system ever nearer to the brink of the ultimate liquidity crisis, the Fed’s December 11th easing, albeit minimal, played to the Wall Street speculators, not to the increasingly troubled global community holding large quantities of a rapidly-debasing U.S. dollar. Those not-so-happy dollar owners can see the U.S. economy sinking quickly into an inflationary recession, with the U.S. banking system facing a solvency crisis and the U.S. central bank playing games with itself. Such portends very difficult times for the greenback and the U.S. financial markets in 2008. The gold and silver markets, however, will be primary beneficiaries of these troubles.
Flash Update  December, 28th, 2007 • Economic Data Take Successive Hits
• Help-Wanted Advertising Plunges to Lowest Level Ever
Flash Update  December, 18th, 2007 • Actual 2007 U.S. Federal Deficit at $1.2 Trillion, $5-Plus Trillion on Consistent Basis
Flash Update  December, 15th, 2007 • Annual CPI Inflation at 4.3% (SGS-Alternate CPI 11.7%), PPI at 7.2%
• Industrial Production Suggests Fourth-Quarter Contraction
Flash Update  December, 13th, 2007 • November “Core” Retail Sales Gained 0.78% versus 1.22% Non-Core
• Prior Food and Energy Inflation Revised Higher
Flash Update  December, 7th, 2007 • Gimmicks Mask November Payroll Contraction
• SGS-Ongoing M3 Annual Growth Rises Again in November
• Official CPI Annual Inflation Could Break 4% Next Week
• Fed’s Quandary Remains
Flash Update  December, 2nd, 2007 • What Is Scaring The Fed?
• GDP Numbers Are Utter Nonsense
• Other Data Show Tumbling Economy
November 2007 Edition  November, 26th, 2007 • Inflation Surges as Economic Activity Plunges
• System Nears Abyss and Fed Moves to Sit on Its Hands Again
• Dollar and Gold Movements Are Just Beginning
• Wall Street Pushes Hard for Interest Rate Fix That Cannot Work and May Not Happen
• In fairness, there is little that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can do, except to play out a losing hand. It was a hand laid off on him by Alan Greenspan, aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress and recent Administrations. As dependent as a drug addict on his next fix, the U.S. stock market is addicted to interest rate cuts, and the pressures on the Fed for another fix are tremendous. Yet, the Fed continues to signal, as clearly as it signals such things, that there is no rate cut coming.
Flash Update  November, 19th, 2007 • Annual Inflation Surge Should Continue
• Inflation-Adjusted (SGS)Peak Gold Price Is $6,030
Flash Update  November, 14th, 2007 • October "Core" Retail Sales Unchanged
• Data Massaging Gets Worse as Energy Prices Collapse(?)
Flash Update  November, 9th, 2007 • October M3 Growth Breaks to New 36-year High
• Trade Numbers Again Appear Massaged
• Beware Next Week's Surge in Annual Inflation!
• The System Begins to Crack
Flash Update  November, 2nd, 2007 • Data Appear Massaged as Market Manipulation Tool
• October Payrolls Fortuitously Show No Need for Further Easing
• Household Employment Plunges by 250,000
Flash Update  October, 31st, 2007 • Fed Action Likely Foreshadows Jobs Report
• GDP Report Fundamentally Was Nonsense
October 2007 Edition  October, 29th, 2007 • Inflation Indicators Surge While Recession Signals Mount
• Anticipated Fed Easing Pummels Real-World Markets
• Dollar Tanks, Oil and Gold Soar and Funding Crisis Continues
• Wall Street's Pollyannas Ignore Darkening Fundamentals
• With all-time high oil prices topping $90 per barrel, with the U.S. dollar indices at record lows and under selling pressure, and with the SGS-Ongoing M3 annual growth at a 36-year high of 14.7%, the near-term inflation outlook is turning about as bleak as it gets. On the economic front, annual growth in new orders for durable goods, housing and employment all are generating new, or confirming prior, recession signals. This is despite overstatement of some recent economic activity in the employment data apparently aimed at removing some pressures on the Fed to ease. Nevertheless, the markets are expecting a quarter-point fed funds rate cut on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) most likely will follow market expectations, in that it has had some hand in setting the consensus outlook, and the U.S. central bank likely will look to be as non-disruptive to the markets as possible. Even so, current expectations already are roiling the currency markets. Any rate cut beyond consensus could prove particularly disruptive for the U.S. dollar. At some point — and that point may have been reached — Fed easing will become counterproductive, pummeling domestic U.S. liquidity. Where Wall Street, Administration and Fed efforts appear to be concentrated on continued artificial propping of equity prices, a dollar-induced liquidity crunch would hit both the equity markets and the credit markets hard. Despite increasing volatility in this unsettled environment, the stock market has held up remarkably well, so far. Gold and dollar prices already are at levels that risk inviting short-lived central bank interventions.
Flash Update  October, 21st, 2007 • Watch the Greenback!
Flash Update  October, 17th, 2007 • Annual CPI Jumps to 2.8% in September
Flash Update  October, 14th, 2007 • Gimmicked Data Appear Aimed at Reducing Pressures on Fed for Another Easing
• September M3 Annual Growth Hit 14.7%

Watch Out for CPI Annual Inflation Surge!
• Twenty years ago this coming week, a new Federal Reserve Chairman faced a financial panic that included the worst one-day stock market crash ever seen in the U.S. markets. Alan Greenspan had become the U.S. central banker in August of 1987, raised rates in September in an effort to bolster the flailing U.S. dollar, and the markets crashed in October. The crash was due to an extraordinary confluence of factors, some of which were of Mr. Greenspan's making, some of which were of Treasury Secretary James Baker's making, and some of which came to a head after festering for decades. Whatever one may think of the former Fed chairman, his actions following the panic did help to contain it and likely side-stepped a total financial-market meltdown, at that time. As will be discussed in greater detail in the upcoming October SGS, those same actions, however, also underlie and ultimately set-up the even greater crisis faced by current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The roiling of the U.S. dollar market following the Fed's recent easing is why the Fed now likely will try to avoid further interest rate cuts. At risk is the financial-market meltdown that Alan Greenspan carried for so long in his nightmares. The liquidity crisis still is unfolding, the economy remains in a deteriorating inflationary recession, and the Fed has few if any viable options open to it. One tool remaining in the Fed's and Administration's arsenal of financial market manipulating gadgets, however, is the rigging of key economic reporting. It was used back in 1987; it appears to be in play, today.
Flash Update  October, 7th, 2007 • Market Mania Fueled by Data Touts
• M3 Annual Growth Highest Since November 1971
Flash Update  October, 5th, 2007 • September Jobs Data Cannot Be Believed
• September M3 Annual Growth Likely to Top 14.5%
September 2007 Edition  September, 23rd, 2007 • |Bernanke's Tap Dancing on the Dollar Landmine Triggers Detonation
• The Dollar Matters, and Its Sell-Off Is Just Beginning
• It's Inflation and Recession, Not Inflation or Recession
• Manic Stocks Ignore Dollar, Oil and Gold
• Key Economic Reporting Massaged as Liquidity Crisis Deepens
• An old-fashioned bank run in the U.K.? The U.S. and Canadian dollars at parity? Saudi Arabia considering a break with the U.S. Dollar? If you tap dance on a land mine long enough, odds favor an unhappy ending. A good dancer can buy time, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke bought about as much time as he could, having been set up by his predecessor with irreconcilable economic and financial problems. Bernanke might have forestalled the unfolding dollar crisis a bit further with just a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target, but the 50 basis point move opened Bernanke's Box of U.S. Dollar and inflation unthinkables. The reality is ugly, and like Pandora — who opened a jar unleashing a variety of evils upon the world — Mr. Bernanke will find it very difficult, if not impossible, to push his newly activated nightmares back into the box. With both recession and inflation woes in place for some time, the inflationary recession is deteriorating at an accelerating pace, exacerbated, not triggered, by the still unfolding systemic liquidity crisis.
Flash Update  September, 17th, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Deepens
• System is as Vulnerable as at Any Time Since 1929 to 1933
Flash Update  September, 9th, 2007 • Consistently-Adjusted August Payrolls Plunged 82,000
• Annual M3 Growth Hit 14% in August
• Inflationary Recession Still Befuddles a Fed Set to Ease
• Recession Recognition Gains Political Correctness
• When the popular media and consensus economists start talking recession, usually an economic downturn already has been underway for a year or so. The 2000 recession gained rapid recognition following 9-11, but the terrorist attacks did not trigger the downturn. The recession had been in place for over a year; the attacks only deepened an ongoing contraction. In like manner, the current recession has been underway for well over a year, but it was not triggered by the liquidity crisis that erupted in August, only intensified by it. The impact of the liquidity problems still will not show up in most economic data until next month. The exceedingly weak August payroll survey was conducted before the crisis had much impact. What appears to have happened was that someone in the Administration decided to recognize the recession and released weak numbers either to force or to help accommodate the Fed in justifying an imminent easing. Yet, there also is a worsening inflation problem, with high oil and food prices, a weakening U.S. dollar and exploding money supply growth. And, then, there also is the threat of U.S. dollar dumping with the U.S. financial markets dependent on foreign capital for liquidity.
Alert  September, 6th, 2007 • Money Supply Growth Explodes
Flash Update  September, 2nd, 2007 • Systemic Liquefaction Boosts M3 Growth to 34-Year High
• Ongoing Extreme Income Variance Reported for 2006
• Financial System Remains Highly Unstable
• Chairman Bernanke Keeps Tap Dancing on That (Dollar) Landmine
• The liquidity crisis continues, and the financial system is groaning under the strain. In the weeks ended August 15th, 22nd and 29th, respectively, seasonally-adjusted (unadjusted is little different) commercial paper outstanding plunged by $91 billion, $90 billion and $63 billion. As other Federal Reserve reporting starts covering the crisis period, key data are showing some impact of Fed actions. For example, seasonally-unadjusted discount window borrowings by banks, following the Fed's heavily touted discount window actions, jumped from a daily average of $6 million in the two weeks ended August 15th, to $1.301 billion in the two weeks ended August 29th. M2 jumped a seasonally-adjusted $43.6 billion in first reporting of the week ended August 20th, up at an annualized growth rate of 36.4%. That, combined with sharp increases in non-M2 components of M3, indicates a spike in annual growth for the SGS-Ongoing M3 August measure, discussed below. Also, the Fed still seems to be enforcing an informal 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate, per the accompanying graph. On the recession front, the phony 4.0% GDP growth was reported as expected. At the same time, help-wanted advertising — a much more reliable economic indicator — plunged to a 49-year low. Through all this, the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable last week. Such tranquility should prove short-lived.
Alert  August, 26th, 2007 • Effective Fed Funds Target is 4.75%
• Bernanke's Tactics Not Working Well
• Financial Tempest's Eye Wall Stalls Temporarily Shy of Landfall
• Rigged Data Provide Inexpensive Market Intervention
• Fed Chairman Bernanke's efforts to stabilize the U.S. financial system have met with minimal success that should prove short-lived. On the plus side has been temporary relative stability in the equity market, aided by extraordinary jawboning and data manipulation, along with market manipulations of the Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the Plunge Protection Team) as indicated by Treasury Secretary Paulson. On the downside, the liquidity crisis appears not to be contained. Obviously planted stories in the
financial media have touted the Fed's "clever" new approach to liquidity
crisis management and how it addresses "moral hazard." Having the Fed
address moral hazard in the financial markets is like having a whorehouse
madam lecture her girls on the virtues of virginity. Moral hazard is not a
primary concern to the Fed when the system is at risk. The planted stories
also explain how there is no need to cut the targeted Fed Funds rate. While
there are good reasons not to cut the Fed Funds rate, suggesting it will not
happen is ludicrous when the Fed already has done it, as shown below. The
Fed Funds shell game is aimed at balancing the needs of short-term Wall
Street hype, deemed necessary to goose the stock market, against an
extremely serious need to prevent a massive U.S. dollar sell-off. With the
economy in an inflationary recession, with the greenback showing new cracks
in the last several days, and with the stock market just a month away from
squirrelly season, the negative turmoil in the financial markets hardly has
August 2007 Edition  August, 19th, 2007 • Terrible Financial Tempest Nears Landfall
• Fear of Bank Runs Appeared to Force Bernanke into His Tap-Dancing-on-the-Dollar-Landmine Routine
• Deteriorating Inflationary Recession Promises Greater Liquidity Woes
• Key Reporting Appears Shifted to "Let's Not Hurt the Markets" Mode
• The systemic liquidity crisis began running out of control last week, with stories of a run on a major bank. Keep in mind that there is not enough physical cash in the system to handle a major bank run in the traditional sense (see March 2007 SGS). Circumstances became dire enough to force Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke into publicly visible actions, announcing a 50-basis-point cut in the discount rate and starting to play a three-card monte game with the federal funds rate. Stocks rallied Friday in response, but the Fed's actions have set the stage for a massive dollar sell-off, which can frustrate lower market rates. With the economy in a deepening, inflationary recession, and with the first major Atlantic hurricane of the season within striking range of Gulf of Mexico energy infrastructure, financial-market turmoil likely has only just begun to unfold.
Alert  August, 12th, 2007 • Systemic Liquidity Problems Turn Ugly
• Communist China Fires First Dollar Salvo
• Given Deepening Recession, Financial Market Woes Are Just Beginning
• July M3 Growth Holds at 13%
• Last week saw extraordinary developments, with a widening systemic liquidity crisis forcing central banks to reaffirm their statuses as lenders of last resort. At the same time, Communist China fired its first serious salvo against U.S. financial market dependence on foreign capital, and Washington appears to have capitulated to early demands. With the U.S. economy in a deteriorating, inflationary recession, and with Mr. Bernanke possibly facing his two other worst nightmares at the same time, one can make the case that the negative turmoil in the U.S. financial markets and for the U.S. dollar are just beginning.
Flash Update  August, 5th, 2007 • July Jobs Report Shows Managed Numbers
• July Annual M3 Growth Notches Lower to 12.8%
• July Financial-Weighted Dollar at All-Time Low
• Systemic Problems Begin to Surface
• Last week saw mounting financial-market stress as an increasing number of firms indicated losses from or difficulties with mortgage- and asset-backed securities and collateralized-debt obligations. Circumstances are exacerbated by an intensifying inflationary recession, and market disorders should get much worse. It would not be surprising if the Fed found itself being called upon, or felt the need, to provide some systemic liquefaction. Still missing from the unfolding crisis, however, remains heavy flight from the U.S. dollar, which will come sooner rather than later. So far, flight to safety and quality has been into the dollar and into Treasury securities, but that will become a flight out of the greenback, particularly if the Fed moves to liquefy the system. Then, pressures on the U.S. central bank will shift heavily in favor of raising interest rates to defend the dollar. On the economic front, last week's data showed not only weakening business conditions, but also indications of data manipulation in the payroll survey.
Alert  July, 29th, 2007 • Reported GDP Rebound was Politically Convenient
• 2nd-Quarter GDP Contracted 0.9% Net of Revisions
• Signs of Imploding Economy Mount
• Oil Price a Penny Shy of Record
• Stock Market Swoon Foreshadows Much Worse
• The U.S. financial markets will face massive and possibly panicked sell-offs in stocks, bonds and the U.S dollar, along with an explosive rally in the price of gold. Timing remains the issue, but this week's break in stock-market psychology has moved the odds strongly and solidly in favor of looming market meltdowns within a six-to-nine month horizon. Circumstances remain fluid enough, though, that given the right confluence of negative factors — as discussed below — the markets could spiral into the abyss at anytime, including within the next week or so. Faced with short-term financial-market and political pummeling, President George Bush sought a breather with the second-quarter GDP numbers. He and his spinmeisters boasted of U.S. economic growth rebounding to 3.4%, from the first quarter's 0.6%, but the improved numbers were just figments of the imaginations of officials at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other reporting showed rapidly deteriorating business activity, while inflation prospects took a new blow.
June / July 2007 Edition  July, 23rd, 2007 • U.S. Dollar Woes Broaden Rapidly
• Systemic Liquidity Shows Some Cracks
• Bernanke Makes Case For Fudging Inflation Data as Fed Fumbles Its Figures
• Oil Pushes Record Highs as Economy Continues Tanking
• Stock Market Turmoil, Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Move Ever Closer
• Against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary recession, the dollar has started taking some early and heavy blows. The sub-prime mortgage difficulties have gained media prominence, but they are just the beginning of difficulties for mortgage and other asset-backed securities. Meanwhile, the Fed keeps sitting on its hands, whistling a tune that inflation is not a problem so long as the public does not see it. At the same time, the U.S. central bank appears to be having trouble tracking the balance sheets of commercial banks. With ongoing annual M3 growth at 13%, alternate CPI at 10.3% and alternate GDP down about 2.2%, apparent complacency by the Fed and euphoria in the record-topping and increasingly volatile equity markets are surreal. Growing recognition of the disconnection between government numbers and economic reality should have even the Wall Street Pollyannas a little bit on edge, as heavy dollar selling and a booming gold market begin moving perhaps a little too close for comfort.
Flash Update  July, 11th, 2007 • Revision and Seasonal-Adjustment Games Help Obfuscate Employment Reality
• Consistent Seasonals Suggest 107,000 June Jobs Gain (Not 132,000)
• To maintain the reported 2,000,000 (exact) annual jobs growth in place for revised seasonally-adjusted May 2007 payrolls, monthly jobs gain reporting needs to be targeted by the Bush Administration at 167,000 per month. In contrast, the Clinton Administration targeted 250,000 per month (3,000,000 per year) for an extended period of time. Perhaps for fear of rattling the credit markets, however, initial monthly reporting typically has been
"understated" over the last year or so, followed in subsequent months by major upward revisions to prior reporting. If this pattern is not a machination of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and if the later numbers are accurate, not fabrications, the BLS would do well to suspend its initial reporting of these numbers, rather than to continue misleading the public and the markets with such poor quality reporting.
Flash Update  July, 1st, 2007 • Recession Signals Deepen as Inflation Pressures Mount
• Help-Wanted Advertising Falls to New Cycle and 50-Year Lows
• May's help-wanted advertising index plummeted to 27, from 29 in April, hitting new cycle and 50-year lows. After allowing for the Internet's siphoning meaningful volume away from the print media, the renewed plunge in the current data still signals a sharp weakening in current economic activity and could be a
harbinger of weaker-than-expected June employment data due for release on July 6th. There were no happy surprises in other economic releases last week. On the price front, ongoing M3 annual growth for June looks like it was close to matching May's pace, while oil prices moved higher, again, and the Fed fretted a little more openly about its inflation worries.
Flash Update  June, 26th, 2007 • Last Month's Unusual Housing "Surge" Evaporates
• Fed Remains Hamstrung Despite Mounting Dollar and Systemic Liquidity Risks
• Sporadic and irregular "positive" economic reports of the last month are proving fleeting, as I suggested, with some numbers revising sharply to the weak side. The housing numbers, for example, look again like they are in the middle of deepening recession.
Flash Update  June, 17th, 2007 • Alternate CPI Notches up to 10.3% Annual Inflation
• May M3 Annual Growth at 13.3%
• Industrial Production Falters, Retail Sales Get Seasonal-Factor Boost
• Inflationary Recession Deteriorates Anew
• With May CPI and PPI topping expectations, and with industrial production faltering, the combination of inflation and recession — a disquieting concept for the financial markets — is not about to disappear. Inflation factors appear to have been rattling the credit markets recently, but the rise in long-term U.S. rates likely reflects more of a waning foreign enthusiasm for buying U.S. Treasuries, than it does expectations of a pending U.S. economic boom. Any such expectations should disappear with economic reporting in the month
or two ahead.
May 2007 Edition  June, 6th, 2007 • GDP Contracted Net of Nonsensical Personal Consumption Surge
• Seasonal Factor Distortions Boosted Payrolls Again
• M3 Growth at 33-Year High
• Fed Remains Impotent
• Stock Market Turmoil, Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Just Matter of Time
• Last month's key data generally showed a worsening inflationary recession. Relative monthly strength, reported for several indicators of business activity, were not too meaningful. Where the affected
numbers are highly volatile, of suspect quality or subject to unusual seasonal factors, countertrend reporting usually is just a one-month aberration. Changes in economic direction are foreshadowed by shifts in leading indicators, not by shifts in coincident or lagging indicators, and most of the better indicators continue to confirm a deepening economic contraction. On the inflation front, annualized CPI inflation, year-to-date
April, is running 4.8% to 7.4% (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted). Annual growth in the SGS Ongoing M3 has broken above 13%, rivaling levels seen before the severe 1973 - 1975 inflationary recession.
Flash Update  May, 28th, 2007 • Housing and Durable Goods Consistent with Faltering Economy
• Downside Data Likely in Week Ahead
• Wall Street Hypesters Fan False Hopes of Economic Turn
• On Thursday, regularly-volatile new home sales were reported up 16.2% for the month of April, and Wall Street’s spinmeisters went to town. The hypesters who tried to weave that isolated and volatile number into a housing recovery story would be comfortable working for the propaganda ministry of the average totalitarian state.
Flash Update  May, 20th, 2007 • Alternate CPI Holds at 10.2% Annual Inflation
• Industrial Production and Housing Data Show Faltering Economy
• Annualized Year-to-Date CPI Shows Serious Inflation
• There was little startling in last week's economic reporting, net of some major revisions and usual seasonal-factor distortions. The inflationary recession continues, and data in the weeks ahead should confirm ongoing deterioration.
Flash Update  May, 12th, 2007 • Annual M3 Growth Accelerates to 12.8%
• Retail Sales and Trade Deficit Take Hits, as PPI Booms
• Fed Hints at Inflationary Recession
• Comments from the U.S. central bank usually are couched in such cautious and careful language
as to make a Wall Street attorney blush. Removing the regular platitudes as to likely economic expansion and inflation moderation in the coming quarters, the crux of the May 9th FOMC statement went: "Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. … the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." That is as close as the Fed will get to acknowledging a recessionary inflation, until well
after the fact of broad market recognition. Last week's economic reporting further moved market expectations towards the unthinkable combination of a contracting economy beset by high inflation.
April 2007 Edition  May, 7th, 2007 • April Payroll Contraction Appears to Have Been Masked
• M3 Growth Surges to 9-11 Liquefaction Levels and Worse
• Mounting Inflationary Recession Has Hobbled Fed
• Intensifying Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Loom
• Knees would be knocking audibly in the credit markets, if the Fed still reported M3 growth. Annual growth (SGS Ongoing M3 series) accelerated sharply in April to 12.9%, from 11.7% in March. The last time annual M3 growth approached 13%, the Fed was liquefying the financial system in the wake of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Before that, the year was 1981 and official annual CPI inflation was running about 10%. If 10% inflation sounds familiar, that is roughly the level of annual CPI inflation that would be reported today using the CPI methodologies of 1980. Exacerbating the financial catastrophe that slowly is unfolding for the U.S. markets, the economy is in a deepening recession and the U.S. dollar has begun suffering nascent selling pressures. In terms of monthly averages, gold already is at an all-time high, and the trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time low. Out of touch with reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps bouncing to new highs.
Flash Update  April, 29th, 2007 • Key Dollar Measure Hits All-Time Low
• First-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.26%, GDP Deflator at 3.97%
• Business Activity Tumbles as M3 Growth and Inflation Fears Soar
• Inflationary Recession Can Trigger Massive Dollar Selling
• The trade-weighted U.S. dollar hit a record low last week, as the markets increasingly recognized the downturn in economic activity, in conjunction with rising inflation that the Fed seems to be "fighting" with accelerating broad money growth. The faltering fundamentals for the greenback included the ongoing bottom-bouncing of the President's approval rating. The U.S. currency is at the precipice and shortly could come under massive selling pressure. Dollar dumping would create turmoil in the domestic U.S. markets, pressuring long-term interest rates to the upside and equity prices to the downside. Never before have the U.S. markets faced an economic crisis while being so heavily dependent on foreign capital for liquidity.
Flash Update  April, 22nd, 2007 • Annual Inflation Soars as Economic Indicators Continue to Tank
• With Deepening Inflationary Recession, Weakening Dollar and Strengthening Gold, Equities Boom?
• Leave it to Wall Street's perverted spinmeistering to hype a 0.4% surge in annual CPI inflation as good news. The hype, of course, surrounded a reported 0.2% decline in so-called "core" inflation, which is relevant only to those poor souls living in the gray twilight of existence, where they consume neither food nor energy. Nonetheless, combined with ongoing weak economic data, general selling pressure against the U.S. dollar and upside movement in the price of gold, the happy inflation hype has been enough to push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs. While the trends in weakening data and U.S. dollar and strengthening gold will tend to intensify, mounting irrationality in equities trading has set up stocks to be turned on their heads.
March 2007 Edition  April, 9th, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Deepens as Markets Sense a Problem
• March Annual M3 Growth Jumps to 11.6%
• Foreign Investors Shunning Treasuries?
• Handling Hyperinflation in a Near-Cashless Society
• Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Still Lie in Offing
• Despite continued rapid deterioration in the current inflationary recession, and despite growing market recognition of the intractable difficulties with both inflation and business activity, there are those on Wall Street who just seem unable to accept the concept of inflation without a strong economy. Give the markets a
stronger-than-expected employment report, and rumblings start of "full employment" triggering a round of wage inflation and Fed tightenings. Inflation is a problem — due to oil, dollar and monetary issues — but not due to strong economic demand. With consumer liquidity squeezed dry, there is no risk of the economy overheating. With actual unemployment around 12%, there is no risk of inflation pressures from the economy being at full employment.
Flash Alert  April, 3rd, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Continues to Deepen
• Retail Sales Running About 0.8% Lower in Revision
• Negligible "Final" GDP Revision Indicates Pending Major Downside Annual Revision
• March Jobs Data Should be Soft
• The inflationary
recession continues to deepen, with economic reporting generally surprising markets on the downside of expectations and inflation surprising markets on the upside. Last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke felt it necessary to clarify that the Fed still has a problem with inflation, despite slowing business
activity. Inflation concerns have not been helped by mounting tensions in
the Middle East or by rising oil and gasoline prices.
Flash Update  March, 27th, 2007 • Major Revisions to Housing, Retail Sales and Production Promise Lower GDP Growth
• Where the annualized quarterly fourth-quarter GDP inflation-adjusted growth rate revised from 3.5% in its "advance" reporting, to 2.2% in its
"preliminary" reporting, further downward revision is likely in Thursday's "final" reporting, due to significant revisions in underlying economic series.
Flash Update  March, 18th, 2007 • Resurging Inflation Again Sinks Real Retail Sales
• Inflationary Recession Intensifies
• Last week's CPI, PPI, retail sales and industrial production releases added some new detail to the continuing deterioration in current economic and inflation conditions. Indeed, as the markets may be beginning to understand, a weak economy and rising inflation can happen together.
Flash Update  March, 11th, 2007 • Likely Reality in Troubled Economic Data: February Payrolls Contracted; January Trade Deficit Did Not Shrink
• February M3 Annual Growth at 10.9%
• Data-Quality Deterioration Deepens
• With financial-market speculation moving back to a "recession or growth" focus, poor-quality reporting of
heavily followed economic data does a disservice to the investing public. This is particularly true when Wall Street hypesters weave related stories that have little relationship to reality, but that happen to help sell
certain financial products. The government would do well to delay its publication schedule by a full month for key economic data that usually suffer heavy revision. In the trade-off between quality and timeliness of reporting, little would be lost, since first estimates of the payroll and GDP data, for example, usually are worthless.
Flash Update  March, 4th, 2007 • Recession Continues to Barrel Along
• Market Disquiet Mounts As "Nesting Season" Nears
• Deepening Recession Helps Trigger Greenspan Waffle and Market Wobble
• When consensus economic forecasters start to talk of recession, usually a downturn has become a certainty, with economic activity already having contracted for at least six-months to a year. Wall Street economists, and Administration and Federal Reserve officials, typically are the last to talk of the politically unthinkable, for fear of negative reactions they might trigger in the financial markets. The game is afoot.
January/February 2007 Edition  February, 20th, 2007 • Economic Activity in Rapid Decline as Miracle Recovery Fades
• Central Bank Dollar Holdings Exacerbate Hyperinflation Risk
• Stock Market Euphoria Misses Economic and Political Realities
• Dollar Sell-Off, Gold Boom Lie Ahead
• An upside blip in economic reporting from unseasonably good weather spiked some December economic data, and market expectations for the economy soared. The U.S. economy, however, does not turn quickly without warning, and early January data showed the recession not only to be very much in place, but also to be deepening rapidly. Although inflation will continue to rise without a further oil price spike, sudden indications of renewed possible terrorist attacks and rumblings of a possible U.S. attack on Iran hold the potential for a rekindled surge in oil prices. Under these circumstances, the U.S. financial markets remain in peril, with higher interest rates, lower equity prices, heavy dollar selling and significant
gold buying on the horizon.
Flash Update  February, 14th, 2007 • Retail Sales Annual Growth Nears Zero
• Newsletter Update
Flash Update  February, 4th, 2007 • M3 Growth Hits 11%, December Jobs Revised Upward by 933,000
• The SGS Alternate Data pages have been updated for M3, GDP and the U.S. Dollar. Based on three weeks of reporting through January 22nd, annual M3 growth hit 11.0% in January, helped by rising M2 growth.
Flash Update  January, 31st, 2007 • GDP overstated by bogus trade reporting
• Upside risk to Janurary jobs report
• Details on upcoming Newsletter.
Flash Update  January, 21st, 2007 • Weather Distorts Data
• 4th-Quarter Production Contracts
• Annual Alternate Inflation at 25-Year High
• M3 Growth Continues to Accelerate
• December’s unusual weather patterns appear to have distorted monthly growth to the upside not only for payrolls — touched upon in the prior Flash Update — but also for retail sales, industrial production and housing starts. Actual economic activity does not turn quickly or sharply without advance
indications. Continued distortions are likely, with the data swinging back the other way in the next couple of months. That said, the inflationary
recession has continued to deteriorate.
Flash Update  January, 7th, 2007 • December Payroll Growth Understated But Not Credible
• Unusual Weather Patterns Promise Major Data Distortions
• Is Bureau of Labor Statistics Playing Games with the Credit Market?
• Highly unusual reporting and revision patterns for the jobs data were seen again, for December. Employment conditions are close to showing a recession, but each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps filling in prior periods with levels of upside revisions that are unprecedented outside of the annual benchmark revisions. The revisions are unusual enough for the BLS to have published a statement last month proclaiming that the changes were not unprecedented. Something very strange is going on in the reporting.
December 2006 Newsletter  January, 2nd, 2007 • Recession Recognition Likely in 2007
• Dollar Poised for 30% Plunge
• Dollar, Debt Monetization and Oil Prices Boost Inflation Outlook
• Gold Easily Could Top $1,000
• Fed to Tighten in Dollar Defense?
• Equities and Bonds to Suffer
• Hyperinflationary Depression Likely by 2010
• The U.S. economy and financial markets face significant peril in 2007, with the dollar sitting on the brink of a major collapse. The positive 2006 U.S equity markets and reasonably tranquil credit markets belie the pending turmoil that already has been set in motion by a rapidly deepening inflationary recession and exacerbated by the de facto long-term insolvency of the U.S. government.
Flash Update  December, 30th, 2006 • New Year Faces Financial Peril
•Year-End Newsletter by January 2nd
•Accelerating growth in the formerly broadest of U.S. monetary aggregates (M3) offers a hint of what will be one of the major, ongoing market concerns in 2007: inflation. The other key economic features of the year ahead will be a deepening, structural recession, and a U.S. government fiscal disaster careening out of control. Where 2006 closed out the year with higher equity prices and somewhat higher interest rates, it also saw a significant surge in the price of gold and the early stages of a major weakening of U.S. dollar. The U.S. equity and credit face bleak prospects in 2007, with strong upside potential for gold and a massive downside potential for the U.S. dollar.
Alert  December, 16th, 2006 • 2006 GAAP-Based Federal Deficit Jumps to $4.6 Trillion
• Total Federal Obligations at $54.6 Trillion
• Energy Pricing Gimmicks Distort CPI and Trade Deficit
• Last week’s U.S. Treasury’s 2006 GAAP-based federal deficit deteriorated sharply, well beyond any possible chance of containment. Other government reports showed curious understatements of both the CPI and trade deficit, as the ongoing inflationary recession continued to unfold.
Flash Update  December, 11th, 2006 • M3 Growth Tops 10%
• Inflation Signals Turn Higher Again
• First Post-Election Jobs Data Show Slowing Economy
• Economic releases of the last week or so continued showing a rapidly deepening recession, along with early confirmation of inflation resuming its upward trend. Beyond ongoing softness in the dollar and some upside movement in oil prices threatening inflation, broad money supply growth is accelerating to the upside.
November 2006 Newsletter  November, 29th, 2006 • Dollar Selling Will Threaten Credit and Equity Markets
• Economic Activity Continues to Crumble
• Distorted Inflation Plunge Bottoms Out
• Gold Prices to Rebound Further
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession continued to intensify last month, at the same time that domestic and global political tensions increased sharply. Main Street U.S.A. dumped the Republican controlled Congress for a variety of reasons, not least of which were rapidly deteriorating pocketbook issues. Reflecting a growing market awareness of these problems, the U.S. dollar has come under some selling pressure. When the current minor selling turns massive, the foreign-capital-dependent domestic markets will face a terrible liquidity squeeze, with resulting interest rate spikes and equity selling. Gold should do well under the circumstances.
Flash Update  November, 20th, 2006 • Exaggerated Gas Price Drop Pushes Inflation Reporting to Nadir
• M3 Growth Hits Four-Year High
• Economic Activity Continues to Crumble
• Post-Election Environment Set for Rebounding Inflation and Deepening Recession
• The inflationary recession is picking up momentum. The various special factors that have depressed near-term inflation reporting have run their course, while economic data ranging from retail sales to housing continue to signal plummeting economic activity. Such is not a happy environment for the traditional financial markets.
Flash Update  November, 6th, 2006 • October Jobs Data Appear Rigged
• Unemployment Drop Statistically Indistinguishable from Increase
• Jobs Gain Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• With continued Republican control of both the House and the Senate at risk, the Bush Administration had both the motive and the opportunity to manipulate the October labor report in its favor. Beyond the reported gain in jobs and drop in unemployment being statistically indistinguishable from a drop in jobs and a gain in unemployment, were the data rigged? While there is no smoking gun, a strong odor of cordite permeates the air. The level of pre-orchestrated hype and a wide variety of unusual reporting characteristics in the October labor data argue strongly in favor of manipulation.
October 2006 Newsletter  October, 30th, 2006 • Collapsing Economic Activity Shows Accelerating Recession
• Twisted Inflation Plunge Will Reverse Post-Election
• Is Fed Controlling Manipulations?
• U.S. Productivity Has Been Falling Since NAFTA
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession remains in place. The drop-off in economic activity indicated by recent reporting is nothing short of extraordinary. Recession speculation should increase markedly. Also, the plunge in CPI inflation was to be expected, given the recent drop in energy prices and year-ago comparisons with hurricane effects. While the inflation downturn will be very short-lived, economic activity is going to get a great deal worse.
Flash Update  October, 16th, 2006 • Observations on Trade, Budget and Retail Sales Data — Un-hyped
• Give Wall Street a bad number, and a positive spin will be generated. Contrary to the popular financial-media hype last week, the news on the trade deficit, the budget deficit and retail sales could not have been much worse. If you like the "core inflation concept," you will love the "core trade deficit" and "core retail sales."
Flash Update  October, 9th, 2006 • Political Manipulation of Labor Data Kicks into High Gear
•September Payrolls Fell 40,000 Using Consistent Seasonal Adjustments
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession remains in place. The September employment report showed severe deterioration, despite a number of reporting gimmicks. Faced with an electorate that is in economic pain, the Bush Administration has tried to make the bad numbers disappear for a while, but results have been mixed. This is despite the comparative annual boosts starting to show up in data from the effects of last year’s terrible hurricane season. The heavily touted annual gain in September retail stores sales is a prime example of such an effect.
September 2006 Newsletter  September, 25th, 2006 • Upsides for Inflation and Gold Have Not Yet Been Touched
• Business Downturn Accelerates
• Poverty Report Suggests GDP Reporting Fraud
• Katrina and Pre-Election Manipulations Distort Current Numbers
• Dollar Selling and Higher Interest Rates in Offing
• The economy’s crash landing was evident in most economic reporting of the last month. On the plus side, volatile oil and gasoline prices have enjoyed a short-term decline — just in time for the election — but inflation problems are only beginning. Despite unusual reporting distortions that will surface in the next two months, the broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession continues. While these conditions remain bearish long-term for the U.S. equity and credit markets and for the U.S. dollar, they remain extremely bullish for gold.
Flash Update  September, 5th, 2006 • Recession Surfaces Despite Manipulation of GDP Data
• Help-Wanted Advertising and Consumer Confidence Plunge Anew
• Poverty Survey Suggests the 2001 Recession Never Ended
• While Wall Street tries to spin a soft-landing tale for the economy — thanking Mr. Bernanke’s genius — a number of reports already are showing scattered wreckage from the crash landing.
August 2006 Newsletter  August, 21st, 2006 • Inflationary Recession Deteriorated Sharply in Second Quarter
• Alternate Measures: Consumer Inflation Hits 11% with Annual GDP Growth Down 0.8%
• July M3 Annual Growth at 9.1%. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee "paused" in its string of rate hikes, citing moderating economic growth and hopes for moderating inflation. With the economy in a deepening inflationary recession, the Fed once more is feeding pabulum to the financial markets in an effort to fend off disorderly declines in the U.S. dollar and in the equity and credit markets. Inflation is far from peaking, and interest rates are going to spike sharply. In a related manner, the run-up in oil prices is not over, and the price of gold has a tremendous upside move ahead of it.
Flash Update  August, 7th, 2006 • The employment data arebeginning to act recession-like, and that normally would put the Fed into aneasing mode. Yet, as evidence grows of slowing
•falling economic activity,evidence of accelerating inflation is mounting, too. There is little thecentral bank can do to contain inflation or to stimulate the economy.Accordingly, Fed considerations and activity will be dominated by efforts tomaintain stability in the financial markets and the U.S. dollar.
Alert  July, 28th, 2006 • GDP Manipulation Uncovered — Instead of the 2.5% growth reported for second-quarter 2006 GDP, the economy contracted. Growth fell by more than 0.5% when corrected for unusual inflation gimmicks used to understate GDP deflation. Previously reported GDP growth underwent meaningful downward revisions.
Flash Update  July, 24th, 2006 • Housing, Retail and CPI Data Confirm Recession Signals.Two key series — Retail Sales and Housing Starts — have generated solid recession warning signals, based on reports published last week. This is as anticipated in the July 17th newsletter. Once generated, such signals always have been followed by the signaled contracting or booming economy.
July 2006 Newsletter  July, 17th, 2006 • Second-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contract 1.3%;Employment Indicators Plunge As Inflation Soars; Fed President Suspects CPI Understatement. Collapsing economic activity and mounting inflation dominated last month’s economic reporting. An inflationary recession is in play, and there is little the Administration or the Fed can do about it. This has created a nightmarish scenario for the financial markets.At the same time, international tensions have escalated to the point where risk of a conventional world war is the highest it has been in 61 years.With U.S. economic and global political conditions unraveling so rapidly, underlying fundamentals do not get much worse for the equity and credit markets, nor much better for gold. Circumstances are fluid and disorderly markets are possible with little or no warning. The U.S. dollar faces severe selling pressure in the near future, although political flight-to-safety effects are providing the greenback with temporary, albeit short-lived, support. The timing of the dollar’s demise ultimately will determine the timing of the fate of the other markets.
Alert  June, 12th, 2006 • The reporting of March’s sharp trade improvement appears to have been a deliberate fabrication, aimed at salving the troubled financial markets of the time! Benchmark revisions released along with the monthly April trade data show that the sharp "improvement" in the March trade deficit — reported at a time of high U.S. dollar and political stress — was rigged. While it is standard practice by the statistical agencies to adjust pre-benchmark revision reporting to coincide with the benchmarks, such adjustments are made to month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter changes, not to the absolute level. To my knowledge, pre-adjusting the level of a series such as the trade deficit is unprecedented. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is more politicized than the Census Bureau. The BEA now "participates" in the trade release with Census, which once handled the monthly number exclusively. Violating common reporting principles with the trade data, the BEA likely repeated the process in the GDP reporting.
June 2006 Edition  June, 7th, 2006 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed, but the financial markets are beginning to catch up with underlying reality. Faltering economic activity and mounting inflation have created a nightmarish conundrum for the political operatives both in the Bush Administration and at the Federal Reserve. Soft economic numbers and high inflation are being nonsensically spun as "conflicting data." An inflationary recession is in play, and there is little the Administration or the Fed can do about it. The pabulum fed to the investing public — that a weak economy means low inflation and interest rates — cannot work in the current environment. Any conflicts that arise are not in the economic data but in simplistic views on economic activity espoused by Wall Street, or in the statistical manipulation goals of the politicians. Those latter issues explain recent Administration and Fed activities — ranging from Fed Chairman Bernanke’s tap dancing on the inflation outlook to the appointment of a new Treasury Secretary — all anchored in putting a positive spin on an impossible situation and avoiding a financial-market meltdown before November 7th. The markets are not cooperating. Dollar selling and gold buying have just begun, and so have the negative reactions in the credit and equity markets.
May 2006 Edition  May, 17th, 2006 • The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession has moved well beyond stagflation. Circumstances deteriorated markedly in the last month, and market perceptions of same have begun to surface, as exhibited by strong gold and a weak dollar. In addition, the trouble is not confined to a weak economy and higher inflation. It also includes a foundering administration and increasing odds of a shift of power coming out of November’s election. Although purposely suppressed in the "official" data (PPI and CPI), there is an inflation problem. It is driven by oil, and increasingly, it also is being driven by dollar woes. These are factors separate from strong economic activity that commonly is viewed as the source of inflation. Fed tightening — designed in theory to slow the economy in order to slow inflation — will do little to cool the current problem. Moreover, current Fed activity has been the reverse of the jawboned inflation fighting, aimed at stimulating liquidity, not killing it. While short-term interest rates have been increased, broad money growth also has been soaring, at least prior to its reporting cut-off. Excessive money growth tends to be an inflation stimulant, not a retardant.
April 2006 Edition  April, 12th, 2006 • There are two broad types of political manipulation of economic data, systematic and current-event, and both are at work distorting economic reports. The current-event manipulation, however, is what will dominate key economic figures out through the mid-term election. It involves direct political intervention in the reporting process in order to enhance the reported results. Indeed, the relatively happy news from the employment
•unemployment front in March appears to have been carefully crafted by Administration manipulators. Similar efforts are likely to generate a reported surge in first-quarter GDP growth, as well as ongoing "strong" jobs data.Nonetheless, continued negative inflation-adjusted growth in money supply (M2), monthly declines in key components of the purchasing managers surveys, sharp downturns in annual change for housing starts and help-wanted advertising, flat to negative annual change in consumer confidence and real earnings, and a record trade deficit all continue to show faltering economic activity. In addition, the price of gold has more than doubled in the last four years, to what is now $600 per ounce. Bullion is sending out a warning of extreme danger facing the U.S. dollar and of rapidly increasing risk of severe global instability. Meanwhile, the political geniuses running Washington continue to fret over the latest polling numbers, while ignoring the fiscal and structural economic crises unfolding around them.
March 2006 Edition  March, 15th, 2006 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed. Since the beginning of 2005 a number of key indicators have been nearing or at their fail-safe points, with four indicators moving beyond those levels, signaling a recession. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have never sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession showed signs of deepening in the latest reporting. Monthly data show plunging new orders for durable goods and contracting industrial production, retail sales, help-wanted advertising, real average weekly earnings and consumer confidence. Consumer credit growth also remained sub-par. As to inflation, both the CPI and PPI topped expectations, and oil prices have remained strong. Also published recently were the full trade data for 2005. Based on fourth-quarter GDP, net exports and employment data, the U.S. trade deficit has cost 8.8 million jobs over time, with 800,000 jobs lost in 2005, alone. The current edition of "SGS" will examine how these numbers were estimated.
February 2006 Edition  February, 9th, 2006 • The 2005 to 2007 recession almost broke to the surface recently, with the Commerce Department’s "advance" estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 GDP. The report was about as honest a one as Commerce has published in a number of years. Somehow, though, considering the Labor Department’s increasing reporting shenanigans last month, the chances of the dawning of a new era of straight-forward economic reports at this time are nil. It is beyond common sense that the current political hacks will allow recession reporting to surface prior to the November election. What almost broke to the surface in the recent GDP reporting most certainly will be beaten back with a club in the months ahead. In general, our broad economic outlook has not changed. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession continues to deepen, and the approaching recession, inflation and risks of heavy dollar selling will offer a nightmarish environment for the still Pollyannaish financial markets. However, negative GDP growth is not likely to surface in regular government reporting until after the November 2006 election, given the rampant political manipulation of most key government numbers.
January 2006 Edition  January, 11th, 2006 • As the administration hypes the economic boom shown in its manipulated data, less popularly followed numbers continue to show an inflationary recession. The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System (EWS) was activated in May and signaled the onset of a formal recession early in July 2005. However, negative GDP growth is not likely to surface in regular government reporting until after the November election, given the rampant political manipulation of the GDP, employment and CPI. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) should time the downturn to mid-2005 and announce same also sometime after the election, so as not to be deemed politically motivated in its timing. Further, thanks to the largely ignored federal budget and trade deficits that now are spiraling out of control, the current downturn is at high risk of deepening into a hyperinflationary recession. Mounting concerns outside the political arena have been one factor behind the ongoing strength in gold prices. The growing awareness of the insurmountable problems associated with these deficits will add significant downside risk to the financial markets as 2006 progresses.
December 2005 Edition Supplement (Re: FY2005 Treasury GAAP Accounting)  December, 19th, 2005 • The "2005 Financial Report of the United States Government," published December 15th by the U.S. Treasury, reported a $760.0 billion net deficit in U.S. government operations for fiscal 2005, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), but excluding ongoing liabilities to Social Security, Medicare and similar programs. The $760.0 billion was up 23.2% from 2004’s $615.6 billion GAAP-based deficit, while the official, accounting-gimmicked 2005 deficit of $318.5 declined by 22.8% from $412.3 billion in 2004. However, net of all accounting gimmicks, the actual federal budget deficit is running at an unsustainable, system-dooming pace of $3.5 trillion per year, roughly 11 times the size of the $318.5 billion accounting-gimmicked official deficit for 2005. The U.S. Government’s negative net worth widened to $49.4 trillion in 2005, with total government liabilities topping $50 trillion for the first time.
December 2005 Edition  December, 7th, 2005 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession continues to deepen. This outlook is predicated on economic activity that already has taken place and does not consider any additional risks from exogenous factors. Most economic data already are softening, and the trend will accelerate sharply. Since the beginning of 2005 a number of key indicators have been nearing or are at their fail-safe points. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have never sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. Lower tax receipts will combine with disaster recovery spending and the ongoing war in Iraq to accelerate deterioration in the federal deficit. Negative GDP growth will not surface in regular government reporting until at least next year, now that it is clear that Katrina’s impact has been neutralized in official reporting, and that political manipulation of the GDP, employment and CPI is rampant.
November 2005 Edition - Supplement (Re: M3)  November, 23rd, 2005 • Unilaterally and without reasonable explanation, the Fed has decided to stop reporting monetary aggregate M3, the broadest of the money-supply measures and probably the most important statistic published by the U.S. central bank. Of the liquidity measures, inflation-adjusted M3 is the best leading indicator of economic activity. Despite its strong growth in nominal terms, net of inflation (calculated on a pre-Clinton Era basis), M3 generated a reliable recession signal several months back. What game the Federal Reserve is playing will become clear soon enough. However, the chances that M3 is being eliminated because it merely duplicates M2 are nil. The cost factor the Fed cited in its announcement also is a canard.
November 2005 Edition  November, 21st, 2005 • Indeed, it is the best of times and the worst of times, depending on which economic releases one reads. Unfortunately, underlying economic reality continues to support the latter outlook. Weighed historically against the various political games played with economic reporting, the present state of affairs is without domestic precedent. In the practiced propaganda of totalitarian states, the lack of alternative information makes it difficult to quantify the manipulations. In contrast, what is happening with the US statistics can be demonstrated with alternate data sources — often from within the government itself. The phony numbers appear to have broad public acceptance within the financial community, despite occasional questions being raised in the free press. Regrettably, the financial community’s acceptance of the data is far more related to business self-interest than to an honest public assessment of economic conditions.
October 2005 Edition  October, 12th, 2005 • Economic numbers of the last month broadly confirmed an intensifying inflationary recession. The effects of the devastation in New Orleans and along much of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast have intensified the negative national economic trends but were not the root cause. Nonetheless, hurricane effects will dominate headline-grabbing economic reports of the next month or two, and Katrina likely will take much of the blame for a recession that has been in development for over a year and underway since July.
JWSGS - SEPTEMBER 2005 EDITION  September, 7th, 2005 • The impact of Hurricane Katrina now becomes the convenient excuse for an inflationary recession, the ingredients and manifestations of which were falling neatly into place long before this catastrophic event came along. Make no mistake about it, however — Katrina’s influence, if it is "permitted" to find its way into government economic releases, will be very harsh. A sampling of some of the likely storm-enhanced data swings: An addition of 1% to the September CPI, third-quarter GDP that shows no growth in real terms, and a decline in September payrolls of 300,000 accompanied by a 0.4% increase in the unemployment rate. These outcomes would have serious shock value, but from a purely political perspective, it might be advisable to report them anyway, while Katrina remains fresh in everyone’s mind to assume the blame.
August 2005 Edition  August, 10th, 2005 • A number of key economic indicators ran counter to our forecasts last month, particularly July employment. Government calculations of seasonal factors can occasionally suffer an across-the-board major distortion that will throw off monthly results for a month or two. Such appeared to be the case in April, and it remains a possibility for June, too. Seasonal-factor rigging also has been used historically as a tool for near-term political manipulation of data. Given flagging presidential ratings, it’s possible the Bush administration has moved into a political-manipulation mode. Nonetheless, the broad economic outlook has not changed, and the 2005-2007 inflationary recession continues to unfold.
Alert  July, 15th, 2005 • Yesterday morning’s report of 0.0% consumer price inflation (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted) during June appears to have been a political fabrication. It was accomplished through the manipulation of reported energy prices. As a result of no reported inflation for the month, "official" annual CPI inflation dipped from 2.8% in May, to 2.5% in June.
JWSGS - JULY 2005 EDITION  July, 13th, 2005 • The 2005-2007 inflationary recession continues to unfold and appears ready to offer up its first real data shocks of the cycle: an outright contraction in July payrolls combined with a meaningful jump in the unemployment rate. Upcoming trade deficits should widen sharply, and industrial production is soon due for monthly contractions. Augmenting SGS recession warning signals already in place (money supply, purchasing managers new orders index, real average weekly earnings), help-wanted advertising and housing starts had their three-month moving averages turn negative on a year-to-year basis in last month’s reporting.
Federal Deficit Reality: An Update  July, 7th, 2005 • From time to time, the U.S. financial markets manifest some concern about the nation’s twin deficits — the federal budget and the current account shortfalls. These episodes have been short-lived, however. Generally, the markets have been very sanguine about these problems — much too sanguine, in our view! We believe there is a great deal about which to be concerned in both areas, and that longer run, the U.S. markets will indeed reflect it — negatively, of course. This article updates our thoughts, etc. on the federal budget deficit.
JWSGS - JUNE 2005 EDITION  June, 8th, 2005 • The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System was activated last month and continues to signal the onset of a formal recession this month (June) or early in third-quarter 2005. Since the beginning of 2005, a number of key indicators have been nearing or at their fail-safe points. In the last month or two, several indicators moved below those levels, signaling an imminent recession. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have not sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. ALSO THIS MONTH: SGS announces the introduction of its own consumer price index!
JWSGS - MAY 2005 EDITION  May, 11th, 2005 • The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System (SGS-EWS) has been activated, signaling the onset of a formal recession in the later part of the current quarter or early part of third-quarter 2005. Sporadic, negative GDP growth likely will not surface in government reporting until later in 2005 or 2006, and the National Bureau of Economic Research will likely time the downturn to mid-2005 and announce same sometime in early-to-mid 2006.
JWSGS - APRIL 2005 EDITION  April, 5th, 2005 • Contrary to conventional Wall Street wisdom, high inflation and recession can co-exist in a very uncomfortable and financially debilitating environment. Inflationary recession is about to replace the stagflation of the last couple quarters. Slowly increasing weakness has been evident in many economic indicators, and the first formal recession signal from the SGS early warning system appears ready to kick in within the next couple weeks.
JWSGS - MARCH 2005 EDITION  March, 9th, 2005 • Stagnation and inflation remain the words for describing the current economic environment in the United States. Reporting distortions overstated February employment and understated the January Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, the deterioration in the 2004 trade deficit cost 1.4 million American jobs.
JWSGS - FEBRUARY 2005 EDITION  February, 9th, 2005 • The current economic picture remains one of stagflation. The view for later in the year, however, increasingly looks like recession, as key indicators keep flirting with generating a recession warning. No solid warning, however, is in place, yet. ALSO THIS MONTH: Thoughts about how the Social Security crisis threatens US financial stability.
January 2005 Edition  January, 12th, 2005 • Recession signals remain borderline as stagflation intensifies. Meanwhile, U.S. obligations exploded by 31% during 2004, to 409% of GDP. And if you were invested outside the dollar last year, it is probable you comfortably outperformed the Dow Jones industrials!
Alert  December, 16th, 2004 • Treasury reports $11.1 trillion 2004 GAAP-basis deficit, which was equal to 96% of GDP; inflation pressures will intensify.
JWSGS - DECEMBER 2004 EDITION  December, 8th, 2004 • Stagflation signals intensify, a recession warning is possible in the next two months, and the dual deficits and the dollar do matter!
JWSGS - NOVEMBER 2004 EDITION  November, 18th, 2004 • Stagflation or worse signaled by key indicators; payrolls boosted by unusual seasonal adjustment.
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