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Flash Commentary No, 1460b June, 20th, 2021 • Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary
• There Is No V-Shaped Recovery
• Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged Economy on Par With the Great Depression
• Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit
• Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation
• 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present
• FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead
• Despite Talk of �Tightening� in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is �Easing� Anew in Its Latest Actions

Flash Commentary No. 1460a May, 31st, 2021 • Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard
• New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse
• Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak
• New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak
• Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels
• April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%)
• Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook
• Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking
• Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies
• Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary

Benchmark Commentary No. 1459 April, 21st, 2021 • Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses
• Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946
• Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary
• Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change
• The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2
• This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2
• ShadowStats Defined “Basic M1″ — Combined Currency and Demand Deposits — Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply
• Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery
• Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy
• That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation
• Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems
• Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary

April, 21st, 2021
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Flash Commentary No. 1458 February, 24th, 2021 • January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse
• Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago
• While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index� Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago
• Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story
• First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction
• January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High
• U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates
• Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil

Flash Commentary No. 1457 February, 16th, 2021 • Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5%
• In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic
• Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing
• January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions
• Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk
• Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation
• Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes
• Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions

Flash Commentary No. 1456 February, 1st, 2021 • Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound
• Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset
• Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery
• First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction
• Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Reporting
• Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006
• Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues
• Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning

Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1455 January, 28th, 2021 • Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020
• Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%)
• An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7%
• December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction
• December 2020 Cass Freight Index� Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity
• Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: “We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery”
• Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year
• Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse
• Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress
• Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil

Economic Commentary No. 1454 December, 29th, 2020 • Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead
• Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery
• On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration
• November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months
• November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices
• Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023
• Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation
• Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1
• Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020
• Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump
• Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation

Economic Commentary No. 1453 December, 14th, 2020 • Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force
• Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7%
• November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity
• For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%)
• Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery
• Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1
• Year-to-Year Gain in Monthly November M1 Jumped to a Record 53.2% from the Prior Record of 42.3% in October, Surged to 65.6% in Week-Ended November 30th
• The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold
• Collapsed Oil Prices Still Suppressed November CPI and PPI Annual Inflation; Yet, Oil Prices Suddenly Are Surging Anew
• Holding Physical Gold Protects the Purchasing Power of Dollar Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Volatility in, or Manipulation of, Gold Prices

Flash Commentary No. 1452 November, 23rd, 2020 • October 2020 Cass Freight Index� Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before
• Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth
• Where Pandemic Forced the Shutdown of the U.S. Economy in March 2020, FOMC Rate Hikes Already Had Strangled Business Activity
• October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory
• Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity
• On Top of an Upside Revision, Housing Starts Gained 4.9% in the Month; This Was Not Statistically Significant at the 90% Confidence Interval
• On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%

Flash Commentary No. 1451 November, 16th, 2020 • Positive News on COVID-19 Vaccines and Treatments Rallied Stocks to Pre-Pandemic Peaks
• Pandemic-Related Structural Damage to the Economy, However, Promises a Troubled Recovery, With Meaningful Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Likely Continuing Beyond 2021
• FOMC Will Maintain Its Emergency Monetary Expansion For the Duration of the Economic Crisis, Looking to Boost Inflation
• At Historic Highs, October 2020 Money Supply Continued to Surge
• With Presidential Election Results Under Challenge, Political Uncertainties Can Roil the Financial Markets
• Democrat Control of Both the Congress and Executive Branch Would Threaten U.S. Dollar Stability and Exacerbate Inflation Risks
• October 2020 Employment Growth Continued Faltering in an L-Shaped Economic Recovery
• Headline October Inflation Remained Muted by the Oil-Price War
• Third-Quarter 2020 Trade Deficit Was Worst in History

Flash Commentary No. 1450 October, 31st, 2020 • Economic Rebound Continues to Falter
• Advance-Estimate, Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Growth Exploded at an Unprecedented, Annualized Real Pace of 33.08%
• The Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annual Year-to-Year Decline Also Narrowed to 1.78% (-1.78%), from 9.03% (-9.03%) in Second-Quarter 2020
• Third-Quarter GDP Activity Held Well Shy of Recovery, Even Though It Rebounded Sharply from a Record Annualized 31.38% (-31.38%) Second-Quarter Plunge
• The Level of Real, Inflation-Adjusted Third-Quarter GDP Was the Lowest Since First-Quarter 2018
• Unlikely Annualized Fourth-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Growth of 15.2% Still Would Be Needed for a Full Economic Recovery This Year
• Instead, Key Monthly Economic Series Have Been Locking Fourth-Quarter Activity Into a Faltering, L-Shaped Recovery

Flash Commentary No. 1449 September, 16th, 2020 • Federal Reserve Will Maintain Its 0.00% to 0.25% Targeted Fed Funds Rate and �At Least� the Current Pace of Asset Purchases, For the Duration
• Broad FOMC Outlook Appears Little Changed in Wake of September Meeting
• Policies Will Continue Until Both Full Employment and Targeted, Prospective Inflation Running Above 2.0% Are Attained
• FOMC Projections Suggest No Return to Normal Conditions Before 2024; Expectations Are for GDP Recovery of Pre-Pandemic Levels Around Fourth-Quarter 2021
• ShadowStats Conclusions: Policy Effects Will Mean a Continued Money Supply Spike, With Consumer Inflation Mounting Rapidly in the Next Six-to-Nine Months

Flash Commentary No. 1448 September, 14th, 2020 • Evolving, �L�-Shaped Economic Recovery Confirmed by Latest, Consistent Reporting of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
• August 2020 CPI and PPI Core Inflation Continued to Spike
• Record Annual Money Supply Growth Foreshadows Higher Inflation
• While Record Money Growth Appears to Be Topping, the Leading-Relationship Federal Reserve Monetary Base Annual Growth Is Surging Anew
• Pending FOMC Could Look to Accelerate Already Record Money Supply Growth and the Pickup in Core Inflation
• Broader Money Measures Should Resume Annual Expansion in September/October With Inflation Accelerating Sharply in Early 2021

Flash Commentary No. 1447 September, 8th, 2020 • Economic Rebound Continues to Falter
• August 2020 Payroll and Unemployment Details Show Intensifying Flattening in the Developing L-Shaped Recovery
• Year-to-Year Decline in Payrolls Has Stabilized Around 7.0% (-7.0%), a Level Last Seen When the U.S. Economy Reset After World War II
• Stalling Recovery Will Generate Greater Government Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Excesses
• Developing Record Shortfall in Third-Quarter Real Trade Deficit Has Negative Implications for Third-Quarter 2020 GDP
• Handling of Needed Revisions to New Unemployment Claims Rivaled Reporting Games that President Nixon Wanted to Play
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Still Cannot Count the Number of Unemployed Persons, Six Months into the Pandemic

Economic Commentary No. 1446 September, 2nd, 2020 • Amidst Mounting Inflation Dangers, the Weakening L-Shaped Recovery from the Pandemic-Shutdown Began to Look Even Softer in July and Early-August Reporting
• Revised Second-Quarter GDP and Initial GDI and GNP Reporting Confirmed the Record Collapse, Wiping Out Five Years of Economic Growth, Resetting the Inflation-Adjusted Real U.S. GDP to Its Lowest Levels since 2014
• With the Below-Consensus, Limited Recovery Unfolding in Second-Half 2020, Real Value of the Full-Year 2020 U.S. GDP Will Be Lucky to Top That Seen in 2016
• Statistical Chicanery Surfaces Along With the L-Shaped Recovery; Department of Labor Rejiggers New Unemployment Claims for Happier, Pending Headlines, Without Providing Consistent, Restated Historical Data
• Non-Recovering, L-Shaped U.S. Labor Force (Employment Plus Unemployment) Suggests Protracted Economic Collapse; 4.8 Million Unemployed Are Missing
• Industrial Production and Employment Numbers Show Deepening Trouble, While Booming Retail and Home Sales Are Running Counter to Sinking Consumer Optimism and Finances
• In March, the FOMC Exploded Money Supply and Inflationary Pressures to Fight the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse and Related Systemic Instabilities
• Record Year-to-Year M1 Money Supply Growth in Early-August Topped 40%
• With August Inflation Pressures Mounting, the FOMC Conveniently Has Retargeted Its Long-Standing Goal of 2% Core Inflation to the Upside
• Mounting Hyperinflation Risks, Heavy Dollar Selling and Systemic Instabilities Promise New Highs Ahead for Gold and Silver Prices

Flash Economic Commentary No. 1445 August, 12th, 2020 • Mounting, Fundamental Risks for Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities Promise New Highs for Gold and Silver Prices, Irrespective of the August 11th Sell-Offs
• Historic GDP Collapse Wiped Out the Last Five Years of Economic Growth
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Plunged at an Unprecedented, Albeit Consensus, Annualized Quarterly Pace of 32.9% (-32.9%), Down Year-to-Year by 9.5% (-9.5%)
• Given Limited-Quality Hard Data, Has Headline Reporting Turned to the Consensus?
• Benchmarked GDP Received a Boost from New Trade-Deficit Reporting Gimmicks
• Nonetheless, Rebound from the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse Is Faltering
• L-Shaped Economic Recovery Has Begun to Take Form, as July Jobs and Unemployment Improvement Decelerated, Amidst Continuing Pandemic-Disrupted Surveying and Reporting Quality Issues
• Labor-Market Stress Has Intensified as Unemployment Claims Gyrate Around Still-in-Depression Levels; Fed Sees Early Indications of Renewed Pullback in Consumer Activity
• U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Rumblings Mount as Congress and the White House Negotiate a Second Round of Massive, Expanded Deficit Spending
• Stalled Recovery Will Generate Even Greater Spending and Monetary Excesses
• Federal Reserve Record Money Supply Expansion Continues, Despite Benchmarked Money Numbers Showing Minimally Slower Growth

Economic Commentary No, 1444 July, 30th, 2020 • FOMC Continues to Hold Its Extraordinary Interest-Rate and Liquidity Policies in Place for Duration of the Pandemic-Disruption, Amidst Signs of Renewed Slowing in Economic Activity
• Exploding Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Are Sounding the Hyperinflation Klaxon
• Major Inflation and Systemic Instabilities Lie Ahead
• Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th
• Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%)
• Potential Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment
• Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted
• Not Credible! June Real Retail Sales Recovered Pre-Pandemic Levels, Contrary to Better-Quality Numbers; Yet Second-Quarter Real Sales Still Fell at an Annualized 24.2% (-24.2%) Pace
• June Cass Freight Index� Fell 17.8% (-17.8%) Year-to-Year, Its 19th Consecutive Annual Decline
• Second-Quarter Industrial Production Annualized Plunge of 42.6% (-42.6%) Was Worst Since the Post World-War II Production Readjustment

Flash Commentary No. 1443 July, 23rd, 2020 • Previewing Special Economic Commentary No. 1444
• Soaring Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Increasingly Foreshadow Potential Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities
• Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th
• Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%)
• Potential Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment
• Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted

Flash Commentary No. 1442 July, 9th, 2020 • Soaring Gold and Silver Prices Reflect Intensifying Investor Concerns for Inflation Risk and Systemic Instabilities
• Rising Gold Prices Suggest Central Banks and Treasury Departments Are Not Doing Their Jobs; Any Related Market-Dampening Interventions Should Prove to Be Short-Lived
• Annual Growth in June 2020 Money Supply Measures Set Record Highs; Consider That June Money Supply M1 Year-to-Year Growth Hit 37%
• June 2020 Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar Just Turned Negative Year-to-Year
• July 30th Second-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product Initial Reporting Should Show Unprecedented, Annualized Real Contraction of About 50% (-50%)
• Consensus Forecasts Are Centering on a More-Modest Record Plunge of 35% (-35%), Yet, Bottom Bouncing Headlines for Some April and May Numbers Were Not Reliable
• June and July Reopening Instabilities Threaten Hopes for a Meaningful, Nascent Upturn; Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped
• First Full Second-Quarter 2020 Headline Reporting: Household Survey Employed Plunged at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 49.1% (-49.1%), as Corrected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Continuing Misclassification Errors
• May 2020 U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply, Signaling Second-Quarter GDP Trouble
• Both Collapsing May Exports and Imports Signaled a Collapsing Global Economy

Special Commentary No. 1441 June, 24th, 2020 • U.S. Economic Activity Was Faltering Before the Pandemic-Driven Collapse
• Pre-Pandemic Economic Troubles Were Driven Primarily by Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance
• March 2020 Economic Numbers Took the Initial Hit of the Pandemic Shutdown, Pulling First-Quarter 2020 GDP into an Annualized 5.0% (-5.0%) Contraction
• April 2020 Saw the Worst-Ever Monthly Collapses in Industrial Production, Nonresidential Construction, Payrolls and Retail Sales
• May 2020 Saw Dead-Cat Bounces in Monthly Production and Construction, Some Bottom-Bouncing in Payrolls and Rebounding Retail Sales; the Latter Two Series of Questionable Reporting Quality
• In Its 18th Straight Month of Annual Decline, the May 2020 Cass Freight Index� Notched Lower, Closing in on Its Record Trough of the Great Recession
• Second Year of Federal Reserve Reporting Delays Look to Exclude Long Overdue, Pre-Pandemic Downside Revisions to Industrial Production from the July 30th Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate and Annual Benchmark Revisions
• All Considered, Initial Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Holds on Track for the Deepest-Ever Annualized Quarterly Contraction, Down by Roughly 50% (-50%)
• Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped

Flash Commentary No. 1440 June, 13th, 2020 • June FOMC Outlook: Deepening Near-Term Economic Collapse, Protracted Recovery
• Unlimited Money Creation and 0.00% to 0.25% Fed Funds Promised for Foreseeable Future
• May 2020 Money Supply M1, M2 and M3 Annual Growth Rates Accelerated to Record Highs
• Additional Explosive U.S. Government Deficit Spending and Debt Expansion Likely Follow
• Early Inflation-Danger Signal: Monthly May Producer Price Inflation for Goods Spiked at a Record Pace, Reflecting Shortage-Induced 44% Surge in Meat Prices
• Fed Chairman Powell Confirmed Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Likely Will Show Its Deepest Quarterly Contraction in History
• ShadowStats Forecast for Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Contraction Remains Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%) Annualized Quarter/Quarter, 16% (-16%) Year/Year
• Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts
• Federal Reserve Board Members Forecast Fourth-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Annual Decline of 6.5% (-6.5%), Worst in Modern Quarterly Reporting, Other Than for Likely Deeper, Intervening Second- and Third-Quarter Annual Contractions

Flash Commentary No. 1439 June, 9th, 2020 • May 2020 Payroll Gain and Unemployment Drop Were Not Credible
• Extreme Pandemic-Shutdown Disruptions to Labor Market Conditions, and Surveying of Same, Heavily Distorted Bureau of Labor Statistics Reporting
• Headline Employment and Economic Bottom Bouncing Likely Are Still a Month or Two Away
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Remains on Track for Its Deepest Ever Annualized Contraction, Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%)
• Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts
• Recession Began Fourth-Quarter 2019, per the National Bureau of Economic Research, Recovery - Regaining the Pre-Recession Peak - Could Take Years, per ShadowStats
• FOMC June 10 Press Conference: Fed Funds Likely Will Hold at 0.00% to 0.25%; Economic Forecasts Probably Will Not Be Overly Optimistic

Special Commentary No. 1438 June, 3rd, 2020 • Entire Economic Expansion Since the Great Recession Is at Risk of Collapse
• Driven by the Pandemic, U.S. Economic Plunge and Financial Market Turmoil Are Accompanied by Rapidly Mounting Risk of a Hyperinflationary Systemic Implosion
• The Fed Is Creating Unlimited Money, Liquidity and Bailouts, With the Federal Government Embarking on Unlimited Deficit Spending and Bailouts
• Annual Growth in Money Supply M1, M2 and the ShadowStats M3-Continuation Jumped to Historic Highs in April 2020, With Accelerating Expansion in Early-May
• Ratio of Collapsing GDP to Exploding Federal Deficit and Debt Shows Historic Low Ability of the U.S. Economy to Cover U.S. Government Obligations
• GDP Inventory Changes Suggest Developing Shortages; Infinite Money Creation Chasing Too Few Goods Can Trigger Early, Rapid and Meaningful Inflation, As Seen Already With Meat and Other Foods
• Headline CPI-U Inflation in the United States from 1970, the Last Year of the Gold-Backed U.S. Dollar, to Date Has Been 561%
• Corrected for U.S. Government Understatement of the CPI-U ShadowStats Alternate CPI Inflation (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,257%
• Increase in the U.S. Dollar Price of Gold (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,314%
• Gold and Silver Prices Remain the Canary in the Coal Mine of Hyperinflation

Special Commentary No. 1437 May, 17th, 2020 • Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
• April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History
• Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History
• Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed Confirm the Economy Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen
• If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the Economy, Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery
• Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting
• U.S. Economy Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice

Flash Commentary No. 1436 May, 13th, 2020 • April 2020 Cass Freight Index� Collapsed by 22.7% (-22.7%) Year-to-Year
• Level of Activity and Annual Decline Both Sank to Lows Last Seen at the Depths of the Great Recession
• Deepening Declines in Annual Freight Activity Remain Inconsistent With a Pre-Pandemic Booming Economy
• Consistent With Fourth-Quarter 2019 and First-Quarter 2020 Contractions in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales the Pandemic Savaged What Already Was an Unfolding Recession

Flash Commentary No. 1435 May, 10th, 2020 • Headline April 2020 Unemployment Really Was Around 20%, Not 15%
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Disclosed Erroneous Unemployment Surveying for a Second Month
• About 7.5 Million People in the April Household Survey Were Misclassified as Employed Instead of Unemployed, per the BLS
• Headline April U.3 Unemployment at 14.7%, Should Have Been 19.5%
• The BLS Had Disclosed the Same Surveying Error Last Month; Where Headline March 2020 U.3 Was 4.4%, It Should Have Been 5.3%
• Per the BLS, Headline Data Will Not Be Corrected: “To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.”
• Nonetheless, Headline April Unemployment Soared to Historic Highs from March: U.3 from 4.4% to 14.7%, U.6 from 8.7% to 22.8% and ShadowStats from 22.9% to 35.4%
• More Realistic, Those Same Unemployment Numbers, Corrected: U.3 from 5.3 % to 19.5%, U.6 from 9.6% to 27.7% and ShadowStats from 23.7% to 39.6%
• April 2020 Payrolls Collapsed by an Unprecedented 20.5 Million Jobs
• Annual Growth in April 2020 Money Supply Measures Soared to Historic Highs
• U.S. Economic Activity Has Collapsed to Great Depression Levels, with the Federal Reserve Creating Unlimited Money

Flash Commentary No. 1434 May, 3rd, 2020 • U.S. Economy Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice
• The COVID-19 Pandemic Shutdown Has Overwritten that Developing Recession With an Economic Collapse and Surging Headline Unemployment That Will Rival the Great Depression in the Week Ahead and Anything Seen in Modern U.S. Economic History in the Months Ahead
• Initial First-Quarter 2020 GDP Quarterly Contraction of 4.78% (-4.78%) Was the Worst Since the Depths of the Great Recession; It Likely Will Deepen to About 7% (-7%) in Its Monthly Revisions
• Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Remains on Track to Rival or Surpass the Deepest Contraction in the Great Depression
• Latest New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Indicate: April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Around 21% - Worst Since Great Depression Depths May 2020 U.3 Likely to Top 30% - Worst in Modern Economic History
• Federal Reserve Will Hold Its Current Expansive Policies in Place, Including Fed Funds at 0.00% to 0.25% and Unlimited Creation of Money and Liquidity, For the Duration of the Pandemic Downturn
• Money Supply Annual Growth Pushes to Record Highs With Each New Weekly Report

Flash Commentary No. 1433 April, 28th, 2020 • Retail Sales Benchmarking Showed the GDP Slowing More Than Headlined, Coming Into the Pandemic Shutdown
• ShadowStats Forecasts First-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Activity Ultimately Will Show a Drop of About 7.1% (-7.1%), With Second-Quarter GDP Plunging by Roughly 38% (-38%)
• Optimistic Expectations for an Initial First-Quarter Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Incorporate Overly Positive Reporting Assumptions That Filled Gaps in Initial, Limited-Quality Reporting of Activity in Underlying Series
• Assuming Some Pandemic Relief, GDP Could Be Off Bottom Before Year-End; Full Recovery Will Be Difficult and Complicated
• Mounting Risks of a Hyperinflationary Great Depression, as the Federal Reserve and Federal Government Launch Unlimited Money Creation, Deficit Spending and Financial Bailouts
• Annual Growth in Money Supply M1, M2 and the ShadowStats M3 Jumped to Historic Highs in First Two Weeks of April 2020
• Watch for Early Inflation Warning Signal in Surging Price of Gold

Flash Commentary No. 1432 April, 17th, 2020 • First Major Coronavirus Impact on Headline Economic Reporting Devastated March Activity - Only the Final Third of First-Quarter 2020 GDP
• Despite Muted Pandemic Impact, Pending First-Quarter 2020 GDP Contraction Should Rival the Depths of the Great Recession
• Fully Hit Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Rival the Depths of the Great Depression, or Worse
• Since the March 2020 Unemployment Survey, 22 Million New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Have Been Filed, Suggestive of Headline April 2020 Unemployment Topping 22%; It Will Get Worse
• April 2020 Unemployment Rate Will More Than Double Anything Seen Post-World War II, Worst Since the Great Depression
• March 2020 Real Retail Sales Plunged by a Record Monthly 10.3% (-10.3%)
• March 2020 Industrial Production and Manufacturing Showed Their Deepest Monthly Plunges Since the Post-World War II Production Shutdown
• What Had Been a Recent Boom in Housing Starts and Building Permits Was Flattened in First-Quarter 2020 by Weakened March Activity, Second-Quarter 2020 Plunge Already Is in Play
• First- and Second-Quarter 2020 Quarterly Contractions in Real Retail Sales and Manufacturing Follow Pre-Pandemic Fourth-Quarter 2019 Contractions

Flash Commentary No. 1431 April, 13th, 2020 • March 2020 Cass Freight Index Plunged by 9.2% (-9.2%) Year-to-Year
• Continuing, Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Increasingly Mirror the Onset of the Great Recession
• Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Are Not Consistent With a Pre-Pandemic Booming Economy
• They Also Never Supported FOMC Claims of Pre-Pandemic Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
• They Are Consistent With Fourth-Quarter 2019 and First-Quarter 2020 Contractions in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales
• They Also Likely Foreshadow a Quarterly Contraction in Real First-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product

Special Commentary No. 1430 March, 23rd, 2020 • Financial-System Insolvency Laid Bare by the Pandemic, as Circumstances Accelerate Towards a Hyperinflationary Great Depression
• Federal Reserve Moves Towards Unlimited Currency Creation, While the Federal Government Promises Unfettered Deficit Spending, All Looking to Bailout Wall Street and the Banks, and to Provide Some Consumer Liquidity Relief
• Extraordinarily Unstable Circumstances Continue in the Global Markets; Economic, Financial-Market and Political Turmoil Likely Have Just Begun, Despite Ongoing, Massive Systemic Manipulations and Interventions
• Holding Physical Gold Remains the Primary, Fundamental Hedge Here; Gold and the Swiss Franc Should Continue to Hold Their Own Against What Increasingly Should Be a Faltering U.S. Dollar
• Recession/Depression, Triggered by Pandemic-Exacerbated Systemic Instabilities, Should Begin to Surface With the March Labor Data Release on April 3rd
• From Pre-Pandemic Headline U.3 Unemployment Low of 3.5% in February 2020, U.3 Could Hit 5% in March and 25% in April (with April ShadowStats-Alternate at 43%)
• Quarterly Contractions/Collapses Loom for First- and Second-Quarter 2020 GDP, Respectively, of About 8% (-8%) and Nearly 40% (-40%), Assuming Current Pandemic Constraints Remain in Place, Accompanied by Major Government Stimulus through June
• Although Being Overwritten by the Crises-Driven Economic Contraction, the Still Deepening Pre-Crises Downturn Seen in February 2020 Freight Activity, Retail Sales and Production Provides a Soft Underbelly for the New Recession
• Reliability Issues Loom With Pandemic-Disrupted Economic Surveying and Numbers

Special Commentary No. 1429 March, 15th, 2020 • FOMC Liquidity Panic: Federal Funds Rate Cut a Full Percentage Point on March 15th to a Range of 0.00% to 0.25%, Following a March 3rd 50 Basis-Point Cut to a Range of 1.00% to 1.25%
• Federal Reserve Also Has Lined Up Dollar Liquidity Support With the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank
• This Signals Extraordinarily Unstable Circumstances at Work in the Global Markets
• Nonetheless, Physical Gold and the Swiss Franc Should Continue to Hold Their Own Against What Likely Will Remain a Faltering U.S. Dollar
• Pandemic and Oil Price Disruptions Are Overwriting and Seriously Deepening What Already Was an Intensifying Economic Downturn
• First- and Second-Quarter 2020 Quarterly GDP Contractions Should Rival or Exceed Great Recession Numbers
• Economic Growth Could Stabilize at Lower Levels by Year-End, Depending on How the Systemic Shocks Play Out
• Economic and Financial-Market Disruptions Have Just Begun, Despite the Extraordinary Systemic Manipulations and Interventions
• Federal Reserve Viability and Loss of Systemic Control Have Been Brought to a Head, With the Coronavirus Whirlwind Ripping Away the Veneer of Post-2008 Financial- and Banking-System Recovery and Stability

Flash Update No. 25 March, 1st, 2020 • A Rough Couple of Weeks for Stocks, While Physical Gold and the Swiss Franc Held Their Own
• Third-Quarter 2019 Gross Domestic Income Growth (Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Just Revised Lower to 1.2% from 2.1%, Due to Employment/Payroll Revisions; Negative GDP Revisions Keep Lining Up for the July 30th Benchmarking
• Fourth-Quarter 2019 Quarterly Declines in Real Retail Sales and Manufacturing, and Deepening Annual Collapse in Freight Activity, All Preceded the Coronavirus Crisis
• FOMC NEEDS TO CUT INTEREST RATES NOW: Underlying Consumer Fundamentals and Activity Continue to Suffer, Separate from Any Pandemic Considerations
• Pre-Pandemic Consumer Financial Woes Reflect Excessive 2017-2018 Rate Hikes, Complicated by Insufficient, Subsequent FOMC Rate-Relief Easing
• Yet, Wall Street and the Fed Chairman Have Claimed the Consumer Economy Continues to Boom, that the Consumer is Financially Healthy and Happy
• Unfolding Pandemic Now Gives the Fed a Headline Excuse for Easing, Without Having to Admit to its Own Economic/Monetary-Policy Malfeasance

Flash Update No. 24 February, 24th, 2020 • UPDATED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: Unfolding Pre-Pandemic Recession Remains in Play; Flight to Gold Should Intensify
• Today, Unfolding Fears of a Corona Virus Pandemic Exacerbated Otherwise Mounting Fears of a U.S. Recession, and Related Risks of Intensifying Flight from the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, to Gold and Silver
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Declined by 1,031.61 (-1,031.61) Points, Largest Drop in Two Years
• London Gold Spiked to a Seven-Year High of $1,671.65 per Troy Ounce
• ShadowStats ALERT: Intensifying Flight from Stocks to Gold Remains Very Much in Play in the Weeks Ahead

Flash Update No. 23 February, 18th, 2020 • January 2020 CASS Freight Index Dropped by 9.4% (-9.4%) Year-to-Year
• Current, Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Increasingly Resemble the Onset of the Great Recession
• Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Are Not Consistent With a Booming Economy
• They Also Do Not Support FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
• They Are Consistent With Fourth-Quarter Contractions Seen in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales

Flash Update No. 22 February, 18th, 2020 • A Second Straight, Negative Holiday-Shopping Season, as the Revised Fourth-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contraction Deepened to 0.6% (-0.6%), the First Quarterly Downturn Since the 2014 to 2016 Mini-Recession
• January 2020 Real Retail Sales gained 0.1% in the Month, but Declined by 0.1% (-0.1%), Net of Revisions, Amidst Slowing Annual Growth
• Downside Historical Revisions to Retail Sales Should Surface in the Just-Scheduled April 27th Annual Benchmarking (See Flash Update No. 21)
• Collapsing off Peak Levels, Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Timed the Great Recession Onset of December 2007, the 2014-2016 Mini-Recession Onset of December 2014, and November 2018 Onset of the Currently Unfolding Recession
• January 2020 Mining Activity Rose, but Weaker Manufacturing and Irregularly, Weather-Depressed Utilities, Knocked Aggregate Production Lower by 0.3% (-0.3%) in the Month
• Downside Historical Revisions to Manufacturing (Industrial Production) Loom in Annual Benchmarkings Scheduled for This Summer
• On the Upswing for Four Straight Months, January 2020 Unadjusted Year-to-Year Consumer Price Inflation (CPI-U) Jumped to a 15-Month High of 2.5%, from 2.3% in December 2019
• Subject to Revised Seasonally Adjusted CPI and Payroll Revisions, Related January 2020 Year-to-Year Real Earnings Held Flat for All Non-Farm Employees

Flash Update No. 21 February, 11th, 2020 • First Major Economic Benchmark Revision for 2019 Signaled Large Downside Revisions Pending for the GDP and Retail Sales
• Perfect Storm: Hit by the FOMC Tightening Too Severely in 2018, Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Cut Retail Spending, But Full Reporting Was Masked by 2018/2019 Partial Government Shutdown Data Disruptions
• Massive, Corrective Downside Payroll Employment Benchmark Revisions Reduced Previously Reported Annual Jobs Growth by 20% (-20%)
• Benchmarked Jobs Count Cut by 514,000 (-514,000) in March 2019, By 422,000 (-422,000) in December 2019
• Retail Employment Revised Sharply Lower, Plunging for 32-Consecutive Months; Year-to-Year Jobs Growth Has Been Negative in Every Month Since June 2017, Except for One, Which Was Flat
• Massive, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions for 2018/2019 Retail Sales and the GDP Should Follow in June and July 2020
• Separately, Regular Year-End Census Bureau Adjustments Reduced the Estimated U.S. Population by 811,000 (-811,000) in January 2020
• As a Result, December-to-January and Year-to-Year Comparisons of Headline Household Survey Counts Are Not Meaningful, Without Special Adjustment
• January 2020 Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose to 3.58%, from Its 50-Year Low of 3.50% in December 2019, Otherwise Still at a 50-Year Low; Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Unemployment Rates Each Jumped by 0.2%

Flash Update No. 20 February, 6th, 2020 • 2020: A Year of Deepening Economic, Fiscal and Financial-Market Turmoil, Despite a Currently Booming, Headline Economy and Stock Market
• The Fed Continues to Prop the Banks and the Financial Markets, But Not the Consumer, Who Ultimately Drives Sustainable Economic Activity
• A Financially Healthy U.S. Consumer Remains Key to Stable Domestic Growth
• Despite a 50-Year Low in Headline Unemployment, the FOMC-Impaired Economy Thwarts Consumer Liquidity Growth; December Median Real Household Income Declined for a Second Straight Month
• Coincident With the January 2020 Payroll Reporting, 2019 Payroll Benchmark Revisions Still Should Be Negative
• Negative December Real Trade-Deficit Revisions Promise Some Downside GDP Adjustments
• Annualized Initial Real Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth of 2.08% Appears Overly Optimistic Against Underlying Hard Numbers
• 2019 Annual GDP Growth at a Three-Year Low of 2.33%, Faces Downside Revisions from Various Benchmarkings in Coming Months

Flash Update No. 19 January, 29th, 2020 • No Changes, Just Continued Pablum Out of the January Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
• Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth Purportedly Continues
• Targeted Federal Funds Rate Held in Check
• Reserve Building, Balance Sheet Expansion to Continue into Second Quarter

Special Bullet Edition No. 19a January, 28th, 2020 • 2020: A Year of Deepening Economic, Fiscal and Financial-Market Turmoil, Despite a Headline Booming Economy and Stock Market
• The Fed Continues to Prop the Banks and the Financial Markets, But Not the Consumer, Who Ultimately Drives Sustainable Economic Activity
• Expected January FOMC: Continued Boosts to Banking-System Liquidity, but No Rate Cut for Liquidity-Strapped Consumers, Who Were Hit by the Overly Aggressive Fed Rate Hikes in 2017-2018
• Fourth-Quarter 2019 Numbers Showed Quarterly Contractions in Real Earnings and Real Retail Sales, Including Full-Year Declines in Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Manufacturing and Freight Activity
• There Is a Fair Shot at Weaker Than Expected Fourth-Quarter GDP, Despite FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
• The U.S. Economy, Federal Government and the Federal Reserve System Still Have Not Recovered from the 2007-2008 Banking Collapse and Bailout
• Harsh Reality Remains That the Fed Stunted U.S. Economic and Fiscal Potential, With Its Handling of the Banking System Collapse and Bailout of 2007-2008
• Extremes of Fiscal and FOMC Imbalances Threaten Massive Systemic Instabilities, Ranging from the Economic and Financial-Market Plunges, to Surging Domestic Inflation
• Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Does Not Work: Headline Inflation Can Be Masked, But the Price of Gold Remains the Canary in the Coal Mine

Flash Update No. 18 January, 11th, 2020 • December 2019 Annual Payroll Growth Dropped to a Two-Year Low, Amidst Faltering Production and Retail Sales Employment
• Jobs Growth Signaled a Weakening Economy, in Advance of Negative Payroll Benchmark Revisions Due Next Month
• Yet, Headline Unemployment Hit a Current Series Low of 3.50%, While Labor-Market Stress Continued Running at Recession Levels
• Against Earlier Data Series, December 2019 Unemployment of 3.50% Was the Lowest Since 3.49% in June 1969, 50-Plus Years Ago
• Annual Benchmark Revisions to Household Survey Seasonal Adjustments Had Negligible Effect on Headline Reporting of Unemployment and Labor-Market Stress
• December 2019 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Eased Minimally to 8.4%, Just off Its November 2019 Ten-Year High of 8.6%
• Annual Growth Rates of 6.9% and 7.2% in December M1 and M2 Notched Lower by 0.2% (-0.2%) from November Levels

Flash Update No. 17 January, 6th, 2020 • War Risks Can Shift Underlying Financial and Economic Resources, Some to the Downside, Some to the Plus Side
• Current Extremes of Fiscal and FOMC Imbalances and Policies Threaten Massive Systemic Instabilities, Ranging from the Economy and Financial Markets, to Domestic Inflation
• Last Time the Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio Topped 70%, Let Alone the Currently Unsustainable 107%, Was in 1944/1945, at the End of World War II; What Happens Now if the U.S. Goes to War?
• FOMC Banking-System Mismanagement and Bailout, and Coincident Federal and Corporate Policies Aimed at Shifting Domestic Production Offshore Have Weakened Potential Domestic Manufacturing of Defense Goods
• At the Same Time, War-Time Production Needs Would Tend to Reactivate Some Key Manufacturing in the United States
• Congress, the Executive Branch and the Federal Reserve All Are Culpable, in Pursuing Short-Sighted and Negligent Domestic Economic Policies

Special Bullet Edition No. 18 December, 31st, 2019 • Before European Markets Shut Down for the Holiday, New Years Eve Flight from the U.S. Dollar and Stocks into Gold Foreshadowed U.S. Market Trends Likely to Unfold in the Year Ahead
• Heavily Touted Perfect Economy and Financial Markets Face Deepening Turmoil in 2020, Thanks Largely to Federal Reserve Gross Negligence
• Signals of Deteriorating Economic Conditions Have Intensified, With Standardly Happy Headline Numbers, Such as Consumer Income, Faltering Anew
• As the Budget Deficit Explodes Amidst Uncontained Federal Spending, the U.S. Government Faces Long-Range Insolvency and/or Hyperinflation
• The Congress, the Executive Branch and the Federal Reserve All Are Culpable, Twiddling Their Thumbs in Complacent Silence

Bullet Edition No. 17 December, 23rd, 2019 • The Faltering and Not-So-Perfect Economy Can Be Attributed to the Fed
• With Stocks Closing Out 2019 at or Near All-Time Highs, Holding Precious Metals in the Same Period Still Outperformed the Major Stock Indices Against Their 2018 Highs
• FOMC Manipulation of the Monetary Base and Interest Rates Have Been the Dominant Drivers and Inhibitors of U.S. Economic Activity, Since the 2008 Banking-System Collapse and Federal Reserve Bailout
• Unprecedented in 101 years of Reporting, U.S. Manufacturing Just Completed Twelve Years, 144 Straight Months and Counting, of Economic Non-Expansion, Never Recovering Its Pre-Great-Recession or Pre-Banking-Collapse Peak Activity
• That Said, Manufacturing, Durable Goods Orders and Freight Activity, All Are in Record Non-Expansion, Showing a Deepening, New Recession
• Twelve Months Real New Orders for Durable Goods to November 2019 Was Down Year-to-Year Versus the 12 Months to November 2018, Both Before and After Consideration of Volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Still Shy by 20% to 50% of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Peak Activity, Elements of the Housing Sector Continue to Show Signs of Low-Level Stabilization

Bullet Edition No. 16 December, 15th, 2019 • Pending Retail Payroll Revisions Show an Unfolding Recession; November Real Retail Sales Suggested a Fourth-Quarter 2019 Contraction, Signaling a Second Consecutive Troubled Holiday Shopping Season
• November Monthly Growth in Real Average Weekly Earnings for All Employees Held Unchanged at 0.0% for the Third Straight Month
• The Fed Knows There Is No Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth, Contrary to Its Happy Hype, Yet the FOMC Is Unable to Cut Interest Rates
• FOMC Will Continue to Meet Any Unexpected Funding Needs (QE) of Its Parent Banking System, to Maintain Systemic and Market Stability and Liquidity
• Where the FOMC Fully Understands the Problems In the Overnight Funding Markets, It Does Not Want to Go Public with Them
• FOMC Has Not Been Open About the Major Conflicts and Issues It Faces, Suggesting Significant Systemic, Financial and Economic Crises May Be at Hand
• Federal Reserve 2008 Bailout of the Failed Banking System Appears Only to Have Bought Time; Not to Have Restored a Workable, Stable Financial System, and Not to Have Allowed a Full, Sustainable Economic Recovery for Main Street, U.S.A.
• Week Ahead: Some Headline Numbers Will Benefit from the End of the GM Strike

Flash Update No. 16 December, 11th, 2019 • Ongoing Nonsense Out of the Federal Open Market Committee
• FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Growth Continues!
• Meeting Market Expectations, the FOMC Held Rates in Check, with No Intention of Alleviating an Unacknowledged, Troubled Economy and with No Intention of Helping Troubled Consumer Liquidity
• FOMC Projects that Jobs Growth Will Remain Strong, Yet, Persistent, Historically Low Annual Payroll Growth Faces a Heavy Hit From Pending, Already Indicated Downside Benchmark Revisions
• 50-Year Low Unemployment, Yet Labor Market Stress Looks Like a Recession
• Fed Purportedly Has Gained Control of Inflation, Which Is Happy News, Unless You Are Trying to Make Ends Meet
• For All Employees, November Real Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings Showed Zero Monthly Growth for the Third Straight Month
• Although Still Not Understood by the FOMC, Systemic Liquidity Issues Purportedly Are Under Control with Balance Sheet Expansion

Bullet Edition No. 15 December, 9th, 2019 • There Is No Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth in Play, Irrespective of Federal Reserve Pronouncements
• FOMC Needs to Cut Rates to Boost the Economy and Help Consumers, But It Likely Will Not Do So at Its December 10th to 11th Meeting
• The FOMC Likely Will Continue to Meet Any Unexpected Funding Needs of Its Parent Banking System, In Order to Maintain Systemic and Market Liquidity
• Record Low Headline Unemployment Continued Amidst Levels of Labor-Market Stress Consistent With a Major Recession
• Annual Payroll Growth Should Drop to Its Post-Great Recession Low, Along With the Benchmark Revisions Indicated for Headline January 2020 Payrolls
• Improved October Trade Deficit Was an Artefact of the General Motors Strike, Which Otherwise Put a Dent in Recent GDP Activity
• November 2019 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Jumped to 8.5%, Highest Since February 2009

Special Commentary No. 985 December, 4th, 2019 • Second Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway
• Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP; N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%
• Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting, Despite Current Protestations to Contrary
• FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing, With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify
• Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble, Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020
• Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series, Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints
• Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020

Special Commentary No. 985 December, 4th, 2019 • econd Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway
• Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP; N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%
• Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting, Despite Current Protestations to Contrary
• FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing, With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify
• Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble, Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020
• Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series, Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints
• Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020

Commentary No. 985 December, 4th, 2019 • Second Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway
• Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP; N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%
• Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting, Despite Current Protestations to Contrary
• FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing, With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify
• Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble, Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020
• Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series, Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints
• Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020

Flash Update No. 15 November, 27th, 2019 • An Unfolding, Deepening Recession
• Upside Revision to Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product, from 1.9% to 2.1%, Reflected No More Than an Involuntary Build-Up in Unsold Inventories
• Net of Inventory Change, Third-Quarter Final Sales Declined Minimally
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income, Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Revised Down to 0.9% from 1.8% Annualized Real Growth
• October 2019 Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Continued to Plunge, Despite Major Downside Revisions to Prior Months
• October CASS Freight Index Dropped Year-to-Year for the 11th Straight Month; Indicating a Deepening Downturn and Risks of a Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction
• With the FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Expansion Evaporating, Expectations Should Shift in Favor of a More-Accommodative Fed

Flash Update No. 14 November, 10th, 2019 • Gold Should Continue to Outperform Stocks, Despite Recent Selling of Precious Metals and Stock-Market Rallies
• Consider that the S&P 500 Record High of Friday, November 8th, Was up by 5.5% from Its Record High of September 20, 2018
• In Contrast, London Gold of November 8th Closed up by 21.8% from September 20, 2018, Despite Recent Heavy Selling of Gold
• Continued Deterioration of Underlying Economic Fundamentals Should Accelerate in the Week Ahead, Dampening Economic Expectations
• An Ongoing Collapse in October Industrial Production, With Retail Sales Growth Running Below Headline Inflation, Should Challenge FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Growth

Flash Update No. 13 November, 4th, 2019 • Explosive Growth in Federal Debt, Against Headline GDP, Is Out of Control, Threatening Domestic Financial Stability and the Survival of the Republic
• Having Triggered the Still-Deepening U.S. Recession, the FOMC Declared That Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth Is in Place, Hinting That No Further Easing Was Needed — Nonsense!
• There Is No Sustainable Moderate Expansion in Place; Aggressive Federal Reserve Easing Still Was and Still Is Needed
• Major Downside Revisions to Economic Growth Loom, Including to the GDP
• The Fed Chair Touted the Third-Quarter GDP as Evidence of Stability, Yet, Just Two Days Later, Construction Spending Suggested the Headline Third-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.9% Should Have Been 1.7%, Possibly 1.4%
• Stronger-than-Expected Third-Quarter Payroll Growth Was Bloated by Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustment Revisions and Was Weak Year-to-Year, While Headline Unemployment Notched Higher Across-the-Board
• Flummoxed FOMC Has Resumed Its Balance Sheet Expansion In an Effort to Stabilize Systemic Liquidity

Flash Update No. 12 October, 21st, 2019 • Dangerous Times for the U.S. Dollar; Intensifying Flight to Precious Metals Likely
• Domestic Systemic Liquidity Issues Appear Serious: Third-Quarter 2019 Velocity of Money (M3) Is on Track for Its Sharpest Quarterly Drop Since the Depths of the Great Recession
• Liquidity Crisis Intensifies, Reflecting Deepening Financial-System Instabilities
• Used by Some at the Fed to Minimize FOMC Accommodation, Overly Optimistic Economic Assumptions Are Falling Apart
• Latest Headline Reporting, Revisions and Corrective Benchmarkings Increasingly Put the Lie to Current Federal Reserve Presumptions of Stable and Positive Economic Growth
• A Deepening Economic Downturn and Flummoxed Fed Suggest Intensified FOMC Accommodation at the October 29/30 Meeting, Reflected Partially in the October 11th Inter-Meeting Liquidity-Infusion Program

Flash Update No. 11 October, 12th, 2019 • Federal Reserve Launches New Round of Quantitative Easing In All But Name
• At Least $60 Billion of Treasury Bill Purchases Per Month into Second-Quarter 2020
• Aimed at Rebuilding the Fed Balance Sheet
• Mounting Economic Weakness and Systemic Instabilities Still Leave Open a Possible 0.50% Rate Cut at October 29/30 FOMC
• Further Expansion of the Informal Quantitative Easing or Renewed Formal Quantitative Easing Is Likely

Flash Update No. 10 October, 5th, 2019 • U.S. Economy Remains in an Intensifying Downturn
• Despite Headline Unemployment at a 50-Year Low of 3.52%, Broader Unemployment Measures and Employment Stress Levels Still Signal Deep Recession
• September Payrolls Gained 136,000 (181,000 Net of Revisions), While Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at a Low of 1.4%, Last Seen Going Into and Coming Out of the Great Recession
• August Trade Deficit Widened, With Negligible Impact on Third-Quarter GDP Outlook
• October FOMC Meeting Should See a 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut and Renewed Quantitative Easing
• September Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Jumped to a 10-Year High

Flash Update No. 9 September, 25th, 2019 • Sharply Elevated Risks of a Near-Term Stock-Market Crash Reflects a Confluence of Unusual Risk Factors, Either Developing or Already in Play:
• Market Perceptions of Meaningful Risk for the Removal from Office of the President Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Stability, and Trigger Flight to Precious Metals
• Increasingly Unstable Global Political and Economic Conditions, Including Trade and Oil-Market Turmoil, a Still-Deepening and Unfolding U.S. Recession, Unstable Federal Reserve Policies
• The Onset of the 2019 Squirrelly Season
• 2018 Extreme Income Variance Held in Place at Levels That Tend to Lead Financial and Economic Crashes

Flash Update No. 8 September, 18th, 2019 • FOMC Cut Rates by the Expected Quarter Point, Amidst Ongoing, Nonsensical Hype of Near-Perfect Economic Conditions
• Broad U.S. Economic Activity Has Continued in a Deepening Downtrend, Amidst Mounting Downside Risks
• Major Downside Revisions to Headline Economic Activity Are Likely In Looming Benchmarkings
• Major, Disruptive Economic Risks and Financial-Market Turmoil Are at Hand
• More-Aggressive Fed Easing Is Likely at or Before the October 30th FOMC, Including Expanded Quantitative Easing

Flash Update No. 7 September, 7th, 2019 • Weakening and Negatively Benchmarked Annual Payroll Growth Signaled Deepening Recession
• As Has Become Commonplace, Monthly Payroll Gains Continued to Disappoint Expectations, Despite Regular Relative Monthly Boosts from Downwardly Revised Prior-Month Activity
• August Headline Unemployment of 3.7% Held Just a Notch Above Its Historic Low, Yet Broader Unemployment Measures Jumped by 0.2% to 0.3% Amidst Deteriorating Employment Conditions
• Economic and Systemic Conditions Are Worse than Headlined, Where Government-Shutdown Bloated Data Have Been Enshrined, Temporarily
• Pending August Retail Sales and Production Should Disappoint Expectations
• The FOMC Needs to Cut Interest Rates More Aggressively Than the Quarter-Point Being Suggested for September 18th
• Fed Is Boosting Money Supply Growth; M3 Growth Strongest Since 2009
• FOMC Easing Should Intensify Shortly; Renewed Quantitative Easing Remains a Good Bet

Flash Update No. 6 August, 29th, 2019 • Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Revision to 2.04%, from 2.06%, Was Negligible and Ran Counter to Rapid Deterioration in Underlying Series
• Initial 2q2019 Gross Domestic Income Was Estimated at 2.11%, with Initial Gross National Product at 3.18%
• Yet, Manufacturing and Oil and Gas Production Are In Decline, on Top of Meaningful, Second-Quarter Downside Revisions
• Real New Orders Are in Their Worst Contraction Since the Great Recession
• Falling Construction Spending Is Worst Since the Great Recession
• Downturn in Freight Activity Is Worst Since the Great Recession
• Heavy Downside Revisions to Retail Trade Employment Suggest Some Recent Overstatement of Retail Sales Activity
• Continued FOMC Easing Should Intensify Shortly; Renewed Quantitative Easing Remains a Good Bet

Flash Update No. 5 August, 21st, 2019 • Payroll Employment Hit by 501,000 (-501,000) Downside Preliminary Benchmark Revision for Year-Ended March 2019
• Final 2019 Benchmarking Estimate Should Be Even Worse; Publication Due With January 2020 Payrolls
• Previously Estimated Jobs Gain for Full Year Ended March 2019 Was Reduced by 20% (-20%) from 2.496 Million to 1.995 Million
• Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Revised from 1.69% to 1.35%, Weakest Since Great Recession
• Negative Benchmarking Suggested Further FOMC Easing and Weakening GDP in Revision

Flash Update No. 4 August, 19th, 2019 • Yes, Chairman Powell, There Really Is a Recession, and It Is Getting Worse
• It Is Felt and Seen Increasingly on Main Street U.S.A., Which Never Recovered Fully from the 2008 Banking Collapse and Great Recession
• Real Average Weekly Earnings for all Employees Are on Track for a Second Consecutive Quarterly Decline in Third-Quarter 2019
• July Freight Index Generated a Formal Economic-Contraction Signal
• Third-Quarter 2019 Industrial Production Is On Track for Its Third Consecutive Quarterly Decline, On Top of Downside Revisions to First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Contractions
• July Real Retail Sales Gained 0.4% in the Month, 1.6% Year-to-Year, Yet, Real Annual Growth Below 2.0% Rarely Is Seen Outside of Recessions
• At the Same Time, Retail Sales of Automobiles Turned Down Anew, On Top of Downside Revisions
• In Second-Quarter 2019, Nominal Construction Spending Fell Into Annual Decline for the First Time Since the Onset of the Great Recession
• Implications Are for a Downside Revision to Second-Quarter GDP
• Expanded FOMC Accommodation, Likely Will Include Renewed Quantitative Easing
• Unusually Volatile and Dangerous Financial Markets Remain in Play

Flash Update No. 3 August, 11th, 2019 • Unstable and Deteriorating Economic and Political Circumstances Foreshadow Domestic Financial Market Turmoil
• Flight from U.S. Stocks and the Dollar Into Gold Should Continue
• Markets Closing in on a Major Tipping Point?

Flash Update No. 2 August, 6th, 2019 • China�s Devaluation of the Yuan versus the Dollar Began in March 2019
• Amidst Likely, Continuing Irregular Financial-Market Volatility and Intensifying Economic Weakness, Flight from U.S. Stocks and the Dollar Into Gold Should Intensify

Flash Update No. 1 (Corrected) July, 26th, 2019 • Real GDP Growth Revised Sharply Lower, Slowing Rapidly Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year into First-Quarter 2019
• Second-Quarter 2019 Quarterly Growth Slowed to a Near-Consensus 2.06%, With Annual Growth Slowing to 2.29%, Lowest Growth Rates Since Early 2017
• The ShadowStats Recession Forecast Remains in Place

Bullet Edition No. 14 July, 25th, 2019 • Congress and the White House Move to Expand Federal Spending, the Federal Deficit and Debt Ceiling, as U.S. Economic Growth Falters
• Federal Debt Outstanding in Excess of GDP Already Is Startling, and That Excess Debt Growth Is About to Accelerate
• Uncontained Federal Deficit and Debt Expansion Doom the Dollar
• U.S. Economy Remains in Deepening Recession
• Second-Quarter GDP Should Come in Below Expectations, On Top of a Likely Downside Revision to First-Quarter GDP
• Despite Hemming and Hawing of Some Fed Officials, Major FOMC Easing Remains Likely by September
• On the Brink of Perpetual Quantitative Easing?

July, 25th, 2019
Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document

Economic Survey No. 1 July, 19th, 2019 • Informal Survey of U.S. Economic Conditions
• Responses Ran 2.7-to-1 on the Downside for the Economy

Bullet Edition No. 13 July, 15th, 2019 • Booming Stocks Versus Booming Gold? Unfolding Conditions Strongly Favor Precious Metals, Not Equities
• Consumer Liquidity Stresses Intensify; Economic Outlook Continues to Deteriorate Markedly
• Sharp Jumps in Annual July Money Supply Growth Suggest Possible Easing, Yet the Monetary Base Remains in Historically Deep Annual Contraction
• Whether or Not Hints of a July 31st FOMC Rate Cut Formally Pan Out, Major Easing (Possibly Renewed Quantitative Easing) Is Likely by September
• Playing Games With the Federal Debt Ceiling Risks a Ratings Downgrade, Intensifying Flight from the Dollar
• Needed Fiscal Stimulus for the Economy Will Be Difficult, With an Already Exploding Budget Deficit
• Weakening Annual June Payroll Growth in Aggregate and in Key Series Was Accompanied by Upside Ticks in the Various Unemployment Measures
• July 26th GDP Benchmarking and Initial Second-Quarter GDP Should Offer Downside Headline Surprises

Bullet Edition No. 12 June, 30th, 2019 • Economic Downturn Continues to Deepen; Major FOMC Easing Remains Likely by September 2019
• Gold Has Rallied Even Faster Than U.S. Stocks Have Gained, Based on Anticipated Fed Accommodation
• May Real New Orders for Durable Goods Held on Solid Track for a Third Straight Quarter-to-Quarter Decline, Both Before and After Considering Volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Third Estimate of First-Quarter 2019 Gross Domestic Product Real Growth Held Unrevised at 3.1%, Despite Major Internal Revisions to the Series
• Real Growth in the Theoretically Equivalent Sister Gross Domestic Income Revised Lower from 1.4% to 1.0%
• Advance May Trade Deficit Indicated Renewed Deterioration and Weakening Second-Quarter GDP
• July 26th GDP Benchmarking Should Offer Some Downside Surprises
• June Consumer Outlook Softened Amidst Mounting Stresses
• Benchmarked Retail Sales Revised Lower Since 2016

Commentary No. 984 June, 24th, 2019 • UPDATED ALERT: New Recession Breaks into the Open, with an Annual Decline in Freight Activity Not Seen Since the Great Recession, May 2019 Zero Net Payroll Growth and Quarterly Contractions in Key Series
• As the Downturn Intensifies, So Too Should U.S. Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold, With the Stock Market Vulnerable to Massive Selling
• Fed Chair Powell Hinted at Possible Later Easing, but Current Conditions Justify Greater Accommodation Now; New Quantitative Easing Is Possible by September
• With FOMC Easing Hinted, U.S. Stocks Rose to New Highs; but a Greater Dollar Plunge and a Greater Gold Price Surge Each More Than Offset the Stock Gains
• Excessive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes Triggered the New Downturn
• When the Fed Shifted to Its Restrictive Monetary Stance, Much of the U.S. Economy Still Had Not Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009; That Exacerbated Already Heavily Negative Consumer Financial Conditions
• Tightening Has Continued, With the May 2019 Monetary Base at a Six-Year Low, Down 3.2% (-3.2%) From December 2018
• Full Economic Recovery Requires More than Interest Rate Cuts and FOMC Easing
• Also Needed Are Meaningful Tax Cuts for Main Street U.S.A., and Stimulative Government Spending, Despite the Ongoing Budget-Deficit Disaster
• In Response to Such Deficit-Busting Stimulus, Global Markets Likely Would Savage the Dollar, Unless the U.S. Government First Could Put in Place a Credible Plan for Balancing Its Finances Once Economic Conditions Had Stabilized
• Government Action Is Unlikely, Though, Shy of Response to a Financial Crisis or Panic

Bullet Edition No. 11 May, 31st, 2019 • REVISED GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; APRIL DURABLE GOODS
• Major New Recession Continues to Unfold, With a Deepening, Broad Economic Contraction Evident in Key Economic Series, Along With Mounting Concerns on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve
• Look for Renewed FOMC Easing by September 2019
• Real Annualized First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Revised Lower to 3.07% from 3.17%, Against an Unrevised Fourth-Quarter 2.17%
• Massive Downside Revisions to Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Which Is the Theoretical Income-Side Equivalent of the Consumption-Side GDP, Highlighted Unstable Reporting in the National Income Accounts
• Fourth-Quarter 2018 Annualized Real GDI Growth of 1.66% Revised to 0.52%; Initial First-Quarter 2019 Growth of Just 1.43% Was Only 0.30% Net of Revisions
• First-Quarter GDP Remained Heavily Bloated, Distorted by Government Shutdown Disruptions to Data Gathering and Reporting
• Broader and Similarly Distorted First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), GDP Plus the Trade Balance in Factor Income (Interest and Dividend Payments), Came in at an Initial 2.66%, versus an Unrevised Fourth-Quarter 2.12%
• April Durable Goods Orders Declined Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year, Real Orders Ex-Commercial Aircraft on Track for Third Quarterly Contraction

Bullet Edition No. 10 May, 22nd, 2019 • Economic Downturn Continued into Second-Quarter 2019; Faltering April Freight Volume Presaged Declines in Production and Retail Sales
• April Manufacturing Turned Negative Year-to-Year for First Time Since 2015, When Freight Volume Also Turned Negative, Signaling the Onset of an Unofficial Double-Dip Recession in Production and Manufacturing
• Production and Manufacturing Suffered Heavy Downside Revisions Along With Unexpected Sharp Declines in April Activity
• April Single-Unit Building Permits Signaled an Unexpected Deepening Downturn
• April Existing-Home Sales Declined Month-to-Month and Year-to Year
• Fourth-Quarter 2018 and First-Quarter 2019 Quarterly Contractions in Real Retail Sales Held in Place, Along With an Unexpected, Sharp April Decline
• Shutdown-Disrupted Retail Sales Data Remain of Suspect Quality
• Latest Round of Economic Data Implied Downside Revisions to First-Quarter 2019 GDP, With an Intensifying Second-Quarter Downturn
• Surging Consumer Optimism Tends to Mirror the Tone of the Popular Press
• Market Sentiment Should Continue Shifting Towards Renewed Fed Easing

Bullet Edition No. 9 May, 13th, 2019 • INFLATION, PENDING ECONOMIC HEADLINES, MARKET TURMOIL
• Inflation Increase Reflected Gasoline Prices, Not a Booming Economy
• Real Average Hourly Earnings Declined for the Second Straight Month
• Weaker Than Expected Economic Reporting Looms
• Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Should Follow
• Market Sentiment Should Begin Shifting Back Towards a Fed Easing

Bullet Edition No. 8 May, 7th, 2019 • PAYROLLS, CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, TRADE, CONSUMER AND THE FOMC
• Even in a Bifurcated Economy, Growth Depends Upon a Financially Healthy Consumer
• Yet, FOMC Policies Still Strangle Consumer Liquidity
• Signs of a Deepening Contraction in the Monetary Base
• New Recession Remains in Play, Still Likely to Force FOMC Easing by September, Irrespective of Federal Reserve Protestations to the Contrary
• Headline Gains in April Payrolls and First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Were Not As Strong As They Appeared
• GDP Showed Multiple Levels of Contracting Consumer Activity
• Advance March Trade Deficit Reconfirmed Collapsing U.S. Goods Consumption, Not Otherwise Fully Accounted for In the Advance GDP
• Amidst Downside Revisions, Total Nominal U.S. Construction Spending Contracted Year-to-Year and Quarter-to-Quarter; Last Seen Going Into the Great Recession
• April Unemployment Rate Declined to a Record-Low 3.58%, Amidst a Declining Labor Force, Reflecting Mounting Labor-Market Distress
• How Can Full-Time Employment Be In Decline With a Booming Economy?
• Downside Revisions Likely Follow for First-Quarter GDP Growth

Bullet Edition No. 7 April, 27th, 2019 • INITIAL FIRST-QUARTER 2019 GDP ESTIMATE WAS NOT CREDIBLE
• Downturn Has Just Begun; Recession Remains in Play, With FOMC-Generated Financial Stresses Still Diminishing Consumer Activity
• Consumer Controls 72% of GDP, but Generated Only 22% of GDP Growth
• Advance First-Quarter Real GDP Gain of 3.17% Topped Consensus Forecasts, Strengthened Against 2.17% in the Fourth-Quarter, Yet the Numbers Were of Unusually Poor Quality
• Bureau of Economic Analysis Is Hamstrung by Data-Quality Issues Tied to Underlying Government Shutdown Reporting Disruptions and Distortions
• Only Two Months of the First-Quarter Trade Deficit Were Available, Where Initial Quarterly GDP Estimates Usually Are Based on Three Months
• That Two-Month Quarterly Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply, Signaling a Great Recession Style Collapse in Personal Consumption; That Deficit Guess Was the Largest Single Positive Contribution to First-Quarter GDP Growth
• Positive Impact of the Deficit Narrowing Should Have Been Offset by an Even Greater Decline in Goods Consumption, Which Dropped Sharply, But Not Enough
• Three Months of Likely Downside Revisions to First-Quarter GDP Follow, Into the July 26th GDP Benchmarking
• Broad Money Supply Velocity Slowed in First-Quarter 2019, Suggestive of a Slowing Economy

No. 983b: Updated ALERT, Economic and Financial Market Review April, 22nd, 2019 • UPDATED ALERT: As U.S. Economic Activity Turns Increasingly Negative, So Too Will the Stock Market and the U.S. Dollar
• February Real Median Household Income and March Real Hourly Earnings Declined; Excessive FOMC Rate Hikes and Tightening Have Pummeled Consumer Liquidity
• Sharply Deteriorating Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Manufacturing and Freight Activity, and a Trade Deficit Narrowed by Collapsing Imports and Consumption, All Signal Pending Contraction in Real Gross Domestic Product
• New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak; Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Faces Further Downside Revision; First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom
• Unusually Wide Range of Forecasts for Initial First-Quarter 2019 GDP, from 1.4% (N.Y. Fed) to 2.8% (Atlanta Fed), Reflect Turmoil in Shutdown Disrupted Data; Headline Estimate Should Come In Below or at the Low-End of Expectations, Ultimately Revising to Outright Contraction by July
• Holding Rates Steady at Present, FOMC Should Be Easing by September
• Income Dispersion Is Worst Since Before the 1929 Stock Crash and Great Depression
• Annual Drop in First-Quarter 2019 Monetary Base Was Greater Than the Inadvertent Plunge That Triggered the 1937 Second Down-Leg of the Great Depression
• Spiking Gasoline and Oil Prices Are Reviving Headline CPI/PPI Inflation, Not the FOMC Canard of an Ever-Strengthening or Overheating Economy
• Time for Congress to Overhaul the Federal Reserve?
• U.S. Treasury Fiscal Operations Are Not Sustainable, Threatening U.S. Financial-Market and Dollar Turmoil, and Ultimately Hyperinflation

Bullet Edition No. 6 April, 9th, 2019 • PENDING DOWNTURN IN ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
• New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak; Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Faces Still Further Downside Revision; First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom
• Current, Positive Economic Expectations Should Drop Sharply, Following Heavily Negative Economic Releases, April 16th to 25th, Leading Into the Initial First-Quarter 2019 GDP Estimate on April 26th
• Series Facing Near-Term Negative Catch-Up Reporting and/or Intensifying, Negative First-Quarter Trends Include: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Freight Activity, Home Sales, Construction and the Trade Deficit

Bullet Edition No. 5 March, 30th, 2019 • Reporting-Quality Issues Mount With Shutdown Catch-Up Data
• Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, With Further Downside Adjustments Pending in July 26th Benchmarking
• Industrial Production Benchmark Revision Patterns Suggested Still-Slower Fourth-Quarter and Near-Contraction First-Quarter Activity
• Contracting First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Activity Likely Follows
• Housing Sector Remains In Deep Recession, Despite Government-Shutdown Disrupted Headline Numbers
• U.S. Economy Continues to Weaken More Sharply and Quickly Than Widely Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession Triggered by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or So

Bullet Edition No. 4 March, 21st, 2019 • March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
• The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
• The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
• The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
• Nonetheless the U.S. Economy Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
• Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
• Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
• Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

Bullet Wdition No. 4 March, 21st, 2019 • March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
• The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
• The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
• The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
• Nonetheless the U.S. Economy Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
• Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
• Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
• Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

Bullet Edition No, 4 March, 21st, 2019 • March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
• The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
• The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
• The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
• Nonetheless the U.S. Economy Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
• Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
• Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
• Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

Bullet Edition No. 3 March, 16th, 2019 • Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes
• Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
• These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, Construction and Payrolls
• February Housing Starts (March 26th), January Trade Deficit (March 27th) and An Eviscerated Annual Industrial Production Benchmarking (March 27th) Are the Last Major Reports, Prior to the March 28th Final GDP Estimate; There Is Limited Chance of a Reprieve
• The Economy Is Weakening Sharply and Quickly, Due to the Overly Aggressive Federal Reserve Tightening and Rate Hikes
• Where Current U.S. Economic Activity Has Signaled a New Recession, Major Business Sectors, Such as Manufacturing and Construction, Never Recovered Fully from the Last One
• Accordingly, the March 20th FOMC Meeting Is Not Too Early to Address the Intensifying Business Collapse; Yet, the FOMC Is Expected to Sit on Its Hands

Bullet Edition No. 2 March, 11th, 2019 • Latest Retail Sales, Employment and Monetary Base Show Increasingly Negative Economic Trends
• January 2019 Retail Sales Signaled a Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP, Along With an Early Indication for a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
• Annual Growth in February 2019 Payrolls Slowed in a Manner Consistent With a Faltering First-Quarter Economy
• February 2019 Saint Louis Fed Adjusted Monetary Base Declined Year-to-Year by 13.0% (-13.0%), Worst Showing Since 1937 Onset of Great Depression Second Down Leg
• Reporting of Broad U.S. Economic Activity Signals a New Recession, While Major Sectors Such as Manufacturing and Construction Never Recovered from the Last One
• The FOMC Should Be Feeling Increased Pressure to Ease, But Action Still Is Not Likely Next Week

Bullet Edition No. 1 March, 7th, 2019 • Some Observations on a Sharply Deteriorating Trade Deficit
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Just Hit Its Worst Level Ever; Annual and Fourth-Quarter 2018 Deficits Were Deepest in History
• Unfolding Trends Have Horrendous Implications for GDP

Bullet Edition No, 1 March, 7th, 2019 • Some Observations on a Sharply Deteriorating Trade Deficit
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Just Hit Its Worst Level Ever; Annual and Fourth-Quarter 2018 Deficits Were Deepest in History
• Unfolding Trends Have Horrendous Implications for GDP

No. 983a: Updated ALERT, Advance Economic and Financial-Market 2018-2019 Review and Preview February, 20th, 2019 • U.S. Economy and Markets Are Transitioning, and It Is Not Good News
• Excessive FOMC Rate Hikes and Tightening of the Last Year Have Pushed the Economy to the Brink of a New Recession, Exacerbated by the Shutdown
• Headline Back-to-Back First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Contractions Likely Follow Still-Pending Reporting of Sharply Slowing Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP; Consider Plunging Retail Sales, Production, Manufacturing and Freight Activity
• Unprecedented in 100 Years of Reported U.S. Manufacturing Activity, December 2018 Marked a Record Eleven Full Years of Economic Non-Expansion
• January 2019 Monetary Base Suffered Its Steepest Annual Decline Since Triggering the Second Down-Leg of the Great Depression
• Income Dispersion Worst Since Before the 1929 Stock Crash and Great Depression
• With a Tanking Economy, the Stock-Market Sell-Off Is Far from Finished; Political Discord in Washington Should Exacerbate and Intensify Market Instabilities
• Does This Concern the FOMC and Government Policy Makers? It Should!
• Driven by Energy Prices, 2018 Annual Inflation Measures Hit Multi-Year Highs, Not Driven by the FOMC Rate-Hike Canard of an Overheating Economy
• Time for Congress to Revisit the Concept of the Federal Reserve?
• U.S. Treasury Fiscal Operations Are Not Sustainable, Threatening Ultimate Financial-Market and U.S. Dollar Turmoil

No. 982: Stock Market, December 2018 Employment and Unemployment, Monetary Conditions January, 7th, 2019 • One Cannot Fool Main Street, U.S.A., With Media Hype; Average Person Has a Stable, Solid Opinion as to How He or She Is Doing
• Federal Reserve Has Not Eased Its Tightening Policies, and the Economy Continues to Turn to the Downside, Sinking Anew
• Benchmarked Headline December 2018 U.3 Unemployment Jumped by 0.2%, Now Rising Since September 2018, with the Benchmarked Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Unemployment Measures Uptrending
• Intense Labor-Market Stress in December Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not off a Record Low
• An Effective Reporting Fraud by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December Payrolls Jumped 312,000, Up by 370,000 Net of November Revisions, Boosted by Inconsistently Published Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions
• FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signaled Onset of a New Recession, as the December 2018 Nominal Monetary Base Dropped to a Sixty-Six Month Low
• Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
• Government Shutdown Has Squelched Negative Economic News from Trade Deficits, Retail and Auto Sales, Construction and Real Estate Activity and Likely, Also, as to a Weakening Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP
• Stock-Market Sell-Off Is Far from Finished

No. 981: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Residential Construction, GDP and Stocks January, 3rd, 2019 • FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signals Onset of a New Recession, as Nominal Monetary Base Drops to a Five-Year Low
• Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
• Intensifying Consumer-Liquidity Squeeze Reflected in Downside Revisions to Previously Estimated Auto Sales, Housing and Third-Quarter GDP
• Third-Quarter 2018 Final Sales (GDP Net of an Increasing Inventory Buildup) Slowed to a Revised 1.03% (Initially 1.43%) from a Second-Quarter 5.33%
• Annual Growth in November Freight Activity Plunged to a Two-Year Low
• November 2018 Residential Construction and Sales Continued in Deepening Downtrends, Well Shy of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Highs
• November Manufacturing in Record 131st Straight Month of Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 4.7% (-4.7%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak; Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
• 2008 Banking-System Insolvency Arose Under the Watchful Eye of the Banking-System-Owned Federal Reserve
• Subsequent FOMC Actions in the Last Decade Centered on Propping the Banks, Not on Restoring a Healthy Economy
• Stock Market Turmoil Has Begun to Respond to the Intensifying Effects of Financial-System Distortions and Instabilities

980a: Some Thoughts on the Stock Market December, 26th, 2018 • Weakening Economy, Driven by Fed Tightening, and FOMC Promises for Even More in 2019, Likely Were Proximal Triggers for the Recent Stock Market Rout
• Market Turmoil Likely Has Only Just Begun
• Attempts by Fed to Mollify Impact of Recent Tightening Could Trigger Flight from the U.S. Dollar and Even Greater Crises

No. 979: November Labor Numbers, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, October Trade Deficit, FOMC December, 19th, 2018 • FOMC Fumbled, Boosting Rates and Promising Further Rate Hikes, While Liquidity-Starved Consumer Activity Already Suggests a New Recession
• Pace of November 2018 Payroll Jobs Growth Slowed to 155,000 (143,000 net of revisions), Against a downwardly revised monthly gain of 237,000 (previously 250,000) in October
• November U.3 Unemployment Dropped to a Record Low 3.67%, from 3.74% in October, While Broader U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.57% from 7.43% and ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Notched Higher to 21.3% from 21.2%
• Intense Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not a Record Low
• November Real Average Weekly Earnings Dropped With a Declining Work Week
• October 2018 U.S. Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened, and the Third-Quarter 2018 Worst-Ever Trade Deficit Deepened in Revision, with Negative Implications for the U.S. Dollar and for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Strength in Recent Economic Headline Activity Commonly Was Boosted by Downside Revisions to Prior Reporting
• Collapsing Oil and Gasoline Prices Slowed November Headline CPI Inflation, Yet They Had the Net Effect of Boosting the Nonsensically Defined PPI Inflation
• Non-Seasonal, Extreme Monthly Swings in Gasoline Prices Have Disrupted any Consistent Trend in Monthly Year-to-Year CPI Inflation

Hyperinflation Watch No. 4 December, 11th, 2018 • Intensifying Risks of Financial-Market and Systemic Instabilities
• November U.S. Monetary Base Declined at an Extreme Annual Pace of 12% (-12%); As Seen Similarly With Federal Reserve Policy Errors of 1936/1937 That Helped Trigger the Second Down Leg of the Great Depression
• Current FOMC Tightening Is Triggering an Unfolding New Recession
• Sell-Off in Equities Likely Has Just Begun
• Watch for Heavy Selling of the U.S. Dollar and Heavy Buying of Gold as Portents of Extreme Political and Financial-Market Turmoil and Systemic Instability

No. 978 Second Part Residential Construction, Home Sales, Construction Spending and Revised GDP December, 6th, 2018 • FOMC Tightening Has Strangled Consumer Liquidity
• October 2018 U.S. Construction Spending Revised and Turned Sharply Lower, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment, Consistent With an Unfolding New Recession
• Plunging October Residential Construction and Home Sales Numbers All Continued in Deepening Downtrends and Intensifying Quarterly Contractions
• Second Estimate of Third-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Was Unrevised at 3.50%, Versus 4.16% in Second-Quarter
• Yet, Downside Revisions to Motor Vehicle Consumption and Upside Inventory Revisions Pushed Third-Quarter Final Sales Down to a Revised 1.23% from 1.43%, Versus 5.33% in Second-Quarter 2018
• Also Hitting GDP Growth, the Record Deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports Expanded in Revision to a New Record Trade Shortfall
• Negative Early Trend for the Fourth-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Suggests an Even Greater Net-Exports Hit to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP
• Hints of a Recession-Driven Shift in Federal Reserve Policy Intensify Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval
• Watch for U.S. Dollar Weakness/Instability and Spiking Gold and Silver Prices; the Dollar and Precious Metals Serve as the Canary in the Coal Mine for the Domestic Stock and Bond Markets

No. 978 Part I: October CPI and PPI, Retail Sales, Production, New Orders and Freight Activity December, 1st, 2018 • Fed Begins to Waffle on Interest Rates and Tightening? Watch the Dollar and Gold!
• Broad Systemic Liquidity and Real Earnings Growth Have Been Impaired by Federal Reserve Tightening
• Constrained Consumer Liquidity Has Taken an Increasing Toll on Economic Activity; GDP Final Sales Revised Lower
• Motor Vehicle Sales Are in a Downward Spiral
• Real Retail Sales, New Orders, Manufacturing, Residential Construction and Home Sales All Have Weakened
• Deteriorating Construction-Activity and Residential-Sales Never Have Recovered Pre-Recession Peak Levels
• With No End in Sight, October 2018 U.S. Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.3% (-4.3%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
• The 130 Straight Months of Economic Non-Expansion in Manufacturing Is Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Series
• Slowdown in Consumer-Driven Activity Looks Like the Onset of a New Recession
• Unadjusted October 2018 Annual Inflation Bounced Back from Year-Ago Disruptions, but Falling Gasoline Prices Should Offer Some Relief

Consumer Liquidity Watch No. 5 November, 21st, 2018 • Stresses Mount on Consumer Income, Credit and Wealth
• Cascading Consumer Liquidity Issues, Aggravated by Federal Reserve Tightenings, Wallop Headline Activity in Home Sales, Construction, Retail Sales and Manufacturing
• Can the GDP Be Far Behind?

No. 977: October Labor Numbers and Money Supply, September Trade Deficit, Construction Spending November, 6th, 2018 • Third-Quarter U.S. Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Was the Worst Ever
• Consumer Outlook Plummets
• Private Surveying of October 2018 Labor-Market Demand Showed Sharp Slowing
• October U.3 Unemployment Rose to 3.74% from Record-Low 3.68% in September; Broader U.6 Unemployment Eased to 7.43% from 7.45%; On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Notched Lower to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Intense Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not a Record Low
• October Payroll Gain of 250,000, versus 118,000 in September Likely Reflected a Relative Boost versus Hurricane-Depressed September Numbers
• Third-Quarter 2018 Real Construction Spending Contracted Quarter to Quarter, Total Construction Spending Fell at an Annualized Pace of 1.7% (-1.7%), Private Residential Construction Spending Contracted by 6.6% (-6.6%), Down by 2.8% (-2.8%) Before Inflation Adjustment
• Weakening Residential Construction and Sales Activity Reflect Impact of Federal Reserve Tightening and Related Consumer Liquidity Squeeze
• Annual M3 Growth Sank to a 14-Month Low in October 2018, with M2 at an 8-Year Low, and M1 at a 10-Year Low (Other Than For Recent Months); With the Level of the Monetary Base at a 21-Month Low

No. 976: Third-Quarter 2018 GDP, September 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods, New-Home Sales October, 30th, 2018 • Real Third-Quarter 2018 GDP Gained 3.50%, Against 4.16% in Second-Quarter, Yet, Where 70.7% of the Increase in the Level of Quarterly GDP Was in Inventories, Annualized Real Final Sales Growth Plunged to 1.43% from 5.33%
• Third-Quarter Real GDP Stood 18.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, but Held Shy by 4.9% (-4.9%) of Recovering that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation
• Advance Estimate of Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Indicated Worst-Ever Quarterly Merchandise Trade Shortfall
• Third-Quarter GDP Confirmed Massive Quarterly Trade-Balance Deterioration, Worst-Ever Quarterly Shortfall in Net Exports of Goods and Services
• September New-Home Sales Collapsed to a 21-Month Low on Top of Downside Revisions; Second-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction and Sharply Deepening Six-Month Downtrend Confirmed Plunging Headlines Seen in Other Residential Construction and Sales Series; Activity Constrained by FOMC Policies Pummeling Consumer Liquidity
• Third-Quarter GDP Also Showed Third-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction in Private Residential Investment
• Federal Reserve Tightening Has Hit Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Hard, Continuing to Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• September Real New Orders for Durable Goods Growth of 0.6% Was a Contraction of 0.8% (-0.8%), Ex-Defense, With Gains Increasingly Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer

No. 975: September Retail Sales, Production, Freight, Housing Starts, Hurricanes and FOMC October, 22nd, 2018 • FOMC Discussions of Raising Rates to Restrictive Levels Are After the Fact; Higher Rates Already Are Pummeling Near-Term Economic Prospects and Threatening Financial-System Stability in this Still-Experimental and Unresolved Post-2007/2008-Crisis Environment
• Oil-Price Driven Inflation Does Not Reflect an Overheating Economy; It Hurts Consumer Liquidity Just as Much as Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
• Faltering Consumer Liquidity Clobbered September 2018 Retail Sales and New Residential Construction
• Real Annual Retail Sales Growth Slowed in a Manner Most Commonly Seen at the Onset of a New Recession
• Building Permits, Housing Starts and Home Sales Just Entered What Could Be Considered a New Recession
• Third-Quarter Permits and Starts Fell in Consecutive Quarterly Contractions; Existing-Home Sales Declined in a Third Consecutive Quarterly Contraction; All Key Residential Series Are in Deepening Six-Month Downtrends
• Minimal Monthly Growth in September Consumer Goods Production Came Entirely from Downside Revisions to August Activity
• With No End in Sight, September 2018 Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.8% (-4.8%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
• The 129 Straight Months (43 Straight Quarters) of Economic Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Series
• Mixed Data Distortions/Disruptions from the Hurricanes of 2018 and 2017

No. 974: September Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Liquidity and Markets October, 15th, 2018 • As Some Acorns Begin to Fall, Beware the Dollar; Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval Are High
• Ongoing Federal Reserve Rate Hikes and Related Policies Have Continued to Tighten Systemic and Consumer Liquidity, Pummeling Retail Sales, and Near-Term Economic Prospects, and Threatening Financial-System Stability
• Hurricane-Triggered Boosts to Energy Prices in September 2017 Depressed Relative Year-to-Year Inflation Rates in September 2018; Annual Consumer Inflation Should be Pushing Three-Percent by December
• CPI-U Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.28% in September 2018 versus 2.70% in August 2018
• CPI-W Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.33% in September 2018 versus 2.87% in August 2018
• September Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
• 2019 Social Security COLA of 2.8% (Based on the CPI-W), Would Have Been 2.4% Using the C-CPI-U, Which Has Been Designed for That Purpose, But Not Yet Implemented
• FOMC-Targeted Core CPI Inflation, Little Affected by Year-Ago Hurricane Disruptions, Held at 2.17% Year-to-Year in September 2018 versus 2.20% in August 2018
• Aggregate PPI Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.64% in September 2018 versus 2.83% in August 2018

No. 973: ALERT Mounting Risk of Intense Financial Market Turmoil October, 14th, 2018 • As Some Acorns Begin to Fall, Beware the Dollar
• Risks of Major Financial Market Upheaval Are High in the Next Six Months, But Watch Out for the Near-Term

No. 972: September Labor Numbers and Money Supply, August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending October, 7th, 2018 • Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Continue to Weaken, With Tightening Systemic Liquidity and a Deepening Trade Deficit
• Annual M3 Growth Sank to a 13-Month Low in September 2018, with the Level of the Monetary Base on the Brink of Breaking to a Five-Year Low
• Unemployment Dropped to 3.7%, with Employed Jumping by 420,000, While Payroll Growth Slowed to 134,000 from an Upwardly Revised 270,000; Hurricane Distortions Likely Depressed Both the Unemployment Rate and the Jobs Gain Number, Given Bureau of Labor Statistics Definitional Inconsistencies
• September U.3 Unemployment Dropped to a Record Lower 3.68%, from 3.85%; Yet, Broader U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.45% from 7.39%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.3% from 21.2%
• Intense Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not at a Record Low
• Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for the Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up

No. 971: Construction and Housing Markets, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Underlying Reality October, 3rd, 2018 • Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Are on the Wane, With Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Headed for a Record Shortfall
• August Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Some Pickup
• Federal Reserve Tightening Hits the Consumer Hard, Threatening Any Nascent, Broad Economic Upturn
• Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up
• Clobbered by Intensifying Consumer Liquidity Troubles, All Major Residential-Construction and Home-Sales Indicators in August Held in Deepening, Six-Month Moving-Average Downtrends
• Residential Sales and Construction Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks: Existing-Home Sales by 26.5% (-26.5%), New-Home Sales by 54.7% (-54.7%), Building Permits by 45.7% (-45.7%) and Housing Starts by 43.6% (-43.6%)
• Ex-Defense and Commercial Aircraft, August Real Durable Goods Orders Fell by 0.5% (-0.5%); Automobile Orders and Shipments Declined; Growth Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer
• Second-Quarter Real Gross Domestic (GDP) Revised to 4.16% from 4.23%; Purported Equivalent Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 1.62% from 1.81%
• Real GDP Stood 17.4% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation

No. 970: Tipping Point, Liquidity, Freight, Hurricane-Disrupted Data, Retail Sales, Production, Inflation September, 26th, 2018 • Tipping Point for the Markets Likely Is at Hand
• Booming Consumer Outlook in September 2018 Has Parallels to 1987
• The FOMC Hiked Rates as Expected, Although Core Inflation Had Slowed Back to Below Overheated Conditions
• The Fed Has Dimmed Near-Term Economic Prospects by Continuing to Tighten the Screws on Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Likely Thwarting Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• August Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
• Monthly Growth in Real Retail Sales and Production Ground to a Halt in August, Net of Revisions, While Annual Growth in Freight Activity Softened
• Hurricane Florence Likely Disrupted Pending September Employment and Unemployment Numbers, on Top of Year-Ago Distortions
• Hurricane-Spiked Gasoline Prices in 2017 Will Have a Minimal Dampening Effect on the Pending Social Security COLA Determination
• Hurricane-Driven 2017 Data Turmoil Resurfaced with August 2018 Inflation, Slowing Annual Inflation, with Headline Growth Distortions Likely in Pending Economic Releases for September 2018 and Beyond

No. 969-B: 2017 Annual Real Median Household Income and Income Dispersion, August 2018 Labor Detail September, 16th, 2018 • Extreme Income Variance Signaled Record Levels of Financial Stress in 2017, Ultimately Foreshadowing Severe Economic and Stock-Market Turmoil
• Headline All-Time High in Real 2017 Household Income Was Nonsense
• Consistently Surveyed and Reported, Real Annual Median Household Income Has Yet to Recover Its High Levels of 1999 and 2000
• Still, July 2018 Monthly Real Median Household Income Showed Its Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain
• August Household-Survey Employed Dropped by 423,000 (-423,000), while the Headline August Payroll Gain of 201,000 Was 151,000, Net of Revisions
• August U.3 Unemployment Edged Lower to 3.85%, from 3.87% in July; Broader U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.39% from 7.54%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Sharply Intensifying Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low

No, 969-A: August Labor Numbers and Money Supply M3, July Trade Deficit and Construction Spending September, 7th, 2018 • Federal Reserve Liquidity Squeeze Has Intensified Sharply, Threatening to Smother Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• Annual Real Money Supply Growth Has Slowed Anew, Annual Nominal Monetary Growth Base Is Plummeting
• August 2018 Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Weakening Activity
• August Household-Survey Employed Dropped by 423,000 (-423,000), with Full-Time Employed Down by 444,000 (-440,000)
• Headline August Payroll Gain of 201,000 Was 151,000, Net of Revisions
• August U.3 Unemployment Edged Lower to 3.85%, from 3.87% in July; Broader U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.39% from 7.54%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Labor-Market Stresses Increased Sharply, Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• July Nominal Balance-of-Payments and Real-Merchandise Trade Deficits Deteriorated Sharply, Likely to Reverse Trade Boosts to Second-Quarter GDP
• July Real Construction Spending Continued Dropping Month-to-Month, Slowing Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 20.5% (-20.5%)

No. 968b: U.S. Economic Reality, Second-Quarter GDP, Second-Cut Comprehensive GDP Revisions September, 6th, 2018 • Statistical Deception Bloats Headline U.S. Economic Growth
• �Pollyanna Creep� Has Added 18.1% to Nominal Gross Domestic Product Since 1980
• Second-Quarter Real GDP Growth Rose to 4.23% from 2.22% in First Quarter, While �GDP Equivalent� Gross Domestic Income Sank to 1.81% from 3.90%
• Official Second-Quarter Real GDP Stood 17.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of Recovering that Peak, When Corrected for the Deliberate Understatement of GDP Inflation
• Underlying Economic Reality Reflects Activity That Is Off Bottom, but Well Shy of Headline Expansion, in Fragile Mixed-Growth Stability as Confirmed by Better-Quality Broad Economic Measures
• Yet, Private Labor Market Surveying, the Real Merchandise Trade Deficit and Real Construction Spending All Faltered in the Latest Reporting
• Federal Reserve Policies Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery, as Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Conditions Tighten Meaningfully
• GDP Benchmarking Pivoted on the Fourth-Quarter 2007 Business-Cycle Peak; Prior Activity Shifted Lower; Subsequent Activity Shifted Increasingly Higher
• Benchmarking Showed the Headline Economic Collapse into 2009 to be Shallower, the Headline Recovery and Expansion to be Somewhat Faster and Stronger, Along with Follow-Through Distortions Inflating the Latest Headline GDP Growth

No. 968-Advance: Second-Quarter 2018 Revised GDP, Initial GDI and GNP August, 29th, 2018 • A Mixed Consumer Outlook Was Signaled in August, with Optimism Broadly At or Off High Levels Last Seen Crashing into the 2001 Recession, Before 9/11
• Second-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Inflation-Adjusted Real Growth Revised to an Annualized 4.23% (Previously 4.06%), versus a First-Quarter 2.22%
• Yet, Growth in Second-Quarter �GDP Equivalent� Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Came in at 1.81%, Down from a First-Quarter 3.90%
• Broader Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Real Growth (GDP Net of International Flows in Interest and Dividend Payments), Was an Initial 4.07%, versus 2.20% in the First Quarter
• Headline GDP Now Stands 17.46% Above Its Pre-Recession Peak, but No Major Underlying Economic Series or Broad Employment Measure Confirms Such a Level of Recovery in this Most-Heavily Gimmicked of U.S. Statistics
• Better Quality, Broad Economic Measures Suggest that Real-World Activity Has Yet to Recover Its Pre-Recession High
• The ShadowStats Real GDP, Corrected for Understated Inflation, Continued Off Bottom, Growing Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Yet It Remained Well Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Levels

No. 967: July Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Payroll Benchmarking August, 24th, 2018 • Residual Squirreling Instincts in Investors Can Overturn Markets
• Housing Sector Has Entered an Intensifying, Renewed Downturn, Amidst Mounting Stresses on Consumer Liquidity
• Weakening July 2018 New- and Existing-Home Sales and Residential Construction Continued to Disappoint Market Expectations for Activity in All Sectors, With Deepening, Downtrending Six-Month Moving Averages
• Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks, July Sales Activity Was Down for Existing Homes by 26.7% (-26.7%) and for New Homes by 54.9% (-54.9%)
• On Top of Downside Revisions, Real Growth in July New Orders for Durable Goods Declined for Total Orders, Slowed for Orders Ex-Commercial Aircraft
• Initial Annual Payroll Benchmark Estimate of a 43,000 Upside Revision for 2018 Was Smaller than the 66,000 Regular Monthly Revision Made to June 2018 Payrolls
• Continued Fed Tightening, Deteriorating Systemic and Consumer Liquidity, Unexpected Economic Weakness, Intensifying Political Discord: Beware the Onset of Squirrelly Season!

No. 966: July 2018 Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Freight August, 17th, 2018 • Recent Sizzle Has Fizzled
• Financial-Market and Economic Prospects Remain Far Shy of the Hype and Headlines, Amidst Tanking Consumer Optimism and Negative Revisions to Recent Reporting
• July 2018 Real Retail Sales Unchanged Net of Downside Revisions to May and June
• July Housing Starts and Components Revised Lower, with Deepening Downtrends and Quarterly Contractions
• New Residential Construction Activity Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs: July Housing Starts by 49.1% (-49.1%), Single-Unit Starts by 53.2% (-53.2%), Multiple-Unit Starts by 32.4% (-32.4%), Building Permits by 42.1% (-42.1%)
• July Manufacturing Showed a Modest Increase on Top of Upside Revisions, Still Holding Shy by 5.0% (-5.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Setting a Record 127-Consecutive Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• Common Experience and Realistic Estimates Show the Economy Is Not Exploding, Holding Well Shy of Recovering Its 2007 Peak
• Nonetheless, Real Aggregate Activity Remains Off Its 2009 Bottom, Growing Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Since Second-Quarter 2017
• Deteriorating Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Intensify Economic Risks; Federal Reserve Tightening Policies and Oil-Driven Inflation Threaten a Fragile, Nascent Recovery

No. 965: July 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings, FOMC August, 12th, 2018 • July 2018 CPI-U, CPI-W and PPI-FD Goods Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective New 79-Month Highs (Since December 2011) of 2.95%, 3.16% and 4.50%
• Less-Meaningful PPI-FD Aggregate Inflation Backed Off to 3.27% from 3.37% in June, Hit by Falling Profit Margins at Gasoline Stations
• July 2018 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted Anew, Month-to-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) and/or Year-to-Year (Unadjusted) Down by 0.01% (-0.01%) in the Month, by 0.22% (-0.22%) in the Year for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees
• Real Average Weekly Earnings for All Employees Fell by 0.20% (-0.20%) in July, Unchanged at 0.00% Year-to-Year
• Intensifying Consumer Income and Credit Woes Dim Economic Prospects
• Mounting Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Issues Reflect Fed Tightening and Surging Annual Inflation, Driven by Oil Prices, Not by Strong Economic Demand
• FOMC-Targeted Annual �Core� CPI-U Inflation Rose to 2.35% from 2.26%, �Worst� Level Since September 2008, Although It Was 2.33% in February 2016
• Fed Rumblings for Greater Rate Hikes to Kill the �Overheating� Economy

Hyperinflation Watch No. 3 August, 12th, 2018 • Benchmarked Velocity of Money Is on the Rise Annual Growth in July 2018 Monetary Base and Money Supply Weakened, as the FOMC Squeezed Liquidity Out of a Possible, Nascent Economic Recovery

Consumer Liquidity Watch No. 4 August, 10th, 2018 • Seriously Negative Developments for July Real Average Weekly Earnings and June Real Consumer Credit Outstanding

No. 964-A: July Labor Numbers and Money Supply M3, June Trade Deficit and Construction Spending August, 3rd, 2018 • July 2018 Annual Growth in the Monetary Base and Money Supply Weakened Anew, as the FOMC Attempts to Squeeze Liquidity Out of a Possible Nascent Economic Recovery
• July Private Labor-Market Surveying Turned Mixed
• July U.3 Unemployment Rate Dropped to 3.87% from 4.05% in June; July U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.54% from 7.79%; On Top of U.3 and U.6 July ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.3% from 21.5%
• Labor-Market Stress Continued at High Levels, Still Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• July Payroll Jobs Gained 157,000 (up by 216,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.65% Holding in Recession-Signal Territory
• July Household Survey Gained 389,000 Employed, With a Decline of 284,000 (-284,000) Unemployed but with an Increase of 453,000 Multiple-Job Holders
• June Nominal Balance-of-Payments and Real-Merchandise Trade Deficits Widened In the Month but Narrowed in the Quarter
• June Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Construction Spending, Dropped Month-to-Month, Slowed Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.8% (-19.8%)

No. 963: The Economy, June 2018 Retail Sales, Production, Durable Goods Orders and Freight Activity July, 31st, 2018 • Economic Reality: Well Shy of Recovery, But Off Bottom and Growing
• Net of Inflation-Gimmicked Boosts to Headline U.S. Real GDP Growth, the Broad Economy Remains Well Shy of Recovering Its Peak Activity of 2007
• Nonetheless, Real Economic Activity Is Off Its 2009 Bottom, Growing Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Since Second-Quarter 2017
• Downside Risks to Activity Continue from Deteriorating Consumer Liquidity, Exacerbated by Federal Reserve Tightening Policies
• June Real Retail Sales Increased on Top of Upside Revisions, Thanks Again to Unstable and Inconsistent Inflation and Seasonal Adjustments
• Soft Consumer Goods Production and Orders Throw �Booming� Real Retail Sales Into Question
• June Manufacturing Held Below April Activity, Despite Reversing May Disruptions, Still Shy by 5.6% (-5.6%) of Recovering Its 2007 Pre-Recession High, in a Record 42-Consecutive Quarters (126 Months) of Economic Non-Expansion
• Production Increased on Top of Downside Revisions, the Manufacturing Reversal and Strength in Oil and Gas Extraction
• Annual Growth in June Freight Index Backed Off Recent Surge; Current Activity Still Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of Recovering a Pre-Recession High

No. 962: Second-Quarter GDP and the Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions - First Cut July, 27th, 2018 • GDP Benchmark Revisions Showed the Economic Collapse into 2009 to be Shallower, With the Recovery and Expansion Somewhat Faster and Stronger
• A Number of Pre-Announced Gimmicks, and Redefinitions Helped to Mute Slowing Growth, Such as �Seasonally Adjusting� Seasonal Adjustments
• Underlying Downside Benchmark Revisions to Series Such as Industrial Production Had Limited Effect, Although Revised Trade Data Had Visible Impact
• Second-Quarter 2018 Annualized Real GDP Growth Boomed by 4.06%, Versus a Revised 2.22% (Previously 1.99%) in First-Quarter 2018, a Revised 2.29% (Previously 2.89%) in Fourth-Quarter 2017 and a Revised 2.82% (Previously 3.16%) in Third-Quarter 2017
• Nothing Like Avoiding a Downside Revision to Headline First-Quarter Activity by Lowering Growth in the Preceding Periods
• Second-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Stood at 17.4% Above Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Yet, No Major Underlying Economic Series or Broad Employment Measure Comes Close to Confirming Such Growth in this Most-Heavily Gimmicked of U.S. Statistics

No. 961: June Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Housing Starts and Sales, Freight July, 26th, 2018 • July 27th GDP Benchmark Revisions Offer a Likely Hit to Historical Growth, Could Shift Relative Second-Quarter versus First-Quarter Patterns, Offering a Surprise to Booming Second-Quarter Expectations
• June 2018 Housing Starts, Building Permits and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Dropped Sharply Month-to-Month, With Downtrending Six-Month Moving Averages
• Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks, June Activity Was Down for Housing Starts by 48.4% (-48.4%), Single-Unit Starts by 52.9% (-52.9%), Multiple-Unit Starts by 30.0% (-30.0%), Building Permits by 43.7% (-43.7%), Existing-Home Sales by 26.0% (-26.0%) and New-Home Sales by 54.6% (-54.6%)
• June Manufacturing Jumped, Reversing Some of May�s Supply-Disrupted Slump, Still Holding Shy by 5.6% (-5.6%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, Setting a Record 42-Consecutive Quarters (126 Months) of Economic Non-Expansion
• Monthly Real Retail Sales Jumped in June, Boosted by Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• Real Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Was Tepid in June, with the Aggregate Series Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 9.9% (-9.9%)
• June Freight Index Annual Growth Backed Off Recent Surge; Current Activity Still Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of a Recovering Pre-Recession High

Hyperinflation Watch No. 2 July, 20th, 2018 • Fed Chairman Powell Promised Further Liquidity Tightening, and the Mid-July Monetary Base Accommodated, Plunging by 4.40% (-4.40%) Year-to-Year, Biggest Drop Since the Final Bi-Weekly Reporting Period of the Obama Administration

Consumer Liquidity Watch - No. 3 July, 18th, 2018 • Consumer Activity Falters, Despite Some Contrary Headlines, as Intensified Constraint on Real Growth in Consumer Credit and Earnings, and Waning Consumer Optimism Take Their Toll

No. 960: June 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings July, 15th, 2018 • June 2018 CPI-U and PPI Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective New 75- and 79-Month Highs of 2.87% and 3.37%
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Stalled at 0.0% in June 2018, Unchanged both Month-to Month and Year-to-Year
• Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Woes Have Intensified Sharply, Driven by Fed Tightening and by Soaring, Oil-Supply-Distorted Inflation
• Exploding Consumer Inflation Does Not Reflect Surging U.S. Economic Demand
• Economic Prospects Dim, as the Consumer Outlook Continues to Weaken

No. 959-B: Expanded Coverage of June Labor Conditions, May Trade Deficit and an Economic Update July, 11th, 2018 • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Intensify
• Bias Factors Generated 45% of the 2.4 Million Payroll Jobs �Created� in the Twelve Months Through June 2018
• June Payroll Survey Gained 213,000 Jobs (up by 250,000 Net of Revisions), but Annual Growth of 1.6% Still Held in Recession-Signal Territory
• In Contrast the Household Survey Lost 89,000 (-89,000) Full-Time Employed, and Gained 145,000 Part-Time Employed
• June U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose a Statistically-Significant 0.30% in the Month; Headline Monthly Gain of 0.2% Simply Was a Rounding Artefact of June U.3 Rising to 4.0% (4.05%) from 3.8% (3.75%) in May
• Labor-Market Stress Remained at High Levels, Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• Official U.3 and the Broader U.6 Unemployment Measures Cannot Reconcile that Conflicting Circumstance, but the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Measure Does
• June U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.79% from 7.65% in May, While the June ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.5% from 21.4%
• May 2018 Balance-of-Payments Trade Deficit Shrank for Third-Straight Month; Driven by Large, Irregular Export Surges That Should Reverse Shortly

No. 959-A: June 2018 Labor Conditions, May Trade Deficit July, 6th, 2018 • Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Continued Retrenchment in June 2018
• June Labor-Market Stress Remained at High Levels, Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• June U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose to 4.05% from 3.75% in May, Up by 0.30%; Headline Gain of 0.2% Was a Rounding Artefact of 4.0% versus 3.8%
• June U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.79% from 7.65% in May
• June ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.5% from 21.4% in May
• June Payroll Jobs Gained 213,000 (up by 250,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.62% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Household Survey Lost 89,000 (-89,000) Full-Time Employed, but Gained 145,000 Part-Time Employed
• May 2018 Nominal Balance-of-Payments Trade Deficit Shrank for Third-Straight Month
• Second-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for a Sharp Narrowing

Hyperinflation Watch No. 1 July, 5th, 2018 • The United States Faces Eventual Hyperinflation, Unless the U.S. Treasury�s Long-Range Solvency Issues Are Addressed
• Annual Growth Jumped in June 2018 M3 and M2, but So Too Did Inflation

No. 958: May 2018 Construction Spending and Benchmarking July, 3rd, 2018 • Construction Spending Benchmark Revisions Were Net-Neutral, but Patterns of Activity Shifted to Show a More-Negative Current Economic Trend
• May 2018 Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.8% (-19.8%); Pre-Benchmarking, April 2018 Previously Had Been Down by 19.4% (-19.4%)
• Revisions Flattened Out the Level of Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Construction Spending of Recent Years
• Recent Large Spikes to Annual Growth in Real Spending Revised Away; Year-to-Year Change Has Resumed Its Downtrending Flat-to-Minus Pattern

No 957: May 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods, Third Estimate of First-Quarter GDP July, 1st, 2018 • May 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods Declined Month-to-Month, Both Before and After Consideration of Inflation and Commercial Aircraft Orders
• First-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Revised Lower to 1.99% (Previously 2.17%, Initially 2.32%), Versus 2.89% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
• Hitting GDP Growth, Revised First-Quarter 2018 Net Exports Turned Negative, Moving into Alignment with Underlying Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Reporting
• Upwardly-Revised Gain in the Nebulous �Intellectual Properties� Category of Fixed Investment Boosted Revised GDP Growth by 0.50% (Previously by 0.29%)
• Contracting Consumer Goods and Housing Elements in the GDP Reflect Mounting Liquidity Stresses and Faltering Consumer Optimism
• First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Growth, Purported GDP-Equivalent, Revised Higher to 3.57% (Previously 2.80%), Versus 1.05% in Fourth-Quarter, Boosted by a Sharp Upside Revision to Nonfinancial-Industry Corporate Profits
• First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), the Broadest National Income Measure, Slowed to 1.91% (Previously 2.00%), down from 2.71% in Fourth-Quarter
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Show Continuing Economic Non-Expansion; Some Hit Likely to Historical GDP Growth in Pending Revisions

Consumer Liquidity Watch - No. 2 June, 29th, 2018
Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document

No. 956: May 2018 Retail Sales, Production, Freight, Housing Starts, Home Sales June, 27th, 2018 • Some Hit Likely to Historical GDP Growth in Pending Revisions
• 5.0% Jump in May Housing Starts Was Not Statistically Significant, but the 4.6% (-4.6%) Drop in the Leading Building-Permits Series Was
• May Existing-Home Sales Tumbled Again, On Top of Downside Revisions to April, Down by 0.4% (-0.4%) Month-to-Month, 3.0% (-3.0%) Year-to-Year and Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 25.3% (-25.3%)
• May New-Home Sales Gain of 6.7% Was in the Context of Usual Nonsense-Volatility, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 50.4% (-50.4%)
• May Manufacturing Took a Heavy Hit, Even Allowing for Major Supply Disruptions, Still Shy by 6.0% (-6.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, Faltering in a Record 125 Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• Real Retail Sales Were Strong in May, Thanks to a Post-Benchmarking Return to Underlying Positive Assumptions and to Lack of Inflation-Adjustment Consistency
• Declining Consumer Goods Production, Declining Goods Consumption and Intensifying Liquidity Stresses Put the Lie to �Booming� Real Retail Sales
• May Freight Index Rose to a Post-Recession High, With Strong Annual Growth, Albeit Off Peak, with Activity Still Shy by 5.7% (-5.7%) of a Full Recovery

Consumer Liquidity Watch - No.1 June, 20th, 2018 • First Edition, with regular updates to follow.

No. 955: May 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Retail Sales, Production, Freight, FOMC June, 18th, 2018 • Shifting Interest-Rate Perceptions Boosted the Dollar, Intensifying Risks of the Day of Reckoning for the U.S. Currency and Financial Markets
• May 2018 CPI-U and PPI Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective 74- and 76-Month Highs of 2.80% and 3.11%
• Rising Inflation Reflected Surging Gasoline Prices from Global-Political and Oil Supply Disruptions, Not from Booming U.S. Economic Activity; Nonetheless, the FOMC Boosted Interest Rates, Again
• Surging, Non-Demand-Driven Inflation, Combined with Fed Tightenings, Already Are Impairing Real Growth in Consumer and Systemic Liquidity
• Inflation-Adjusted Real Average Weekly Earnings Remained Stalled in May, With Monthly Gains Shy of 0.1%; Quarterly Contractions Held in Place
• Higher Oil Prices Boosted Oil-and-Gas Extraction and Exploration, in U.S. Mining-Sector Production, Although Total Production Declined in May
• Manufacturing Took a Heavy Hit, Even Allowing for a Major Supply Disruption, Still Shy by 6.0% (-6.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, Faltering in a Record 125 Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• Real Retail Sales Were Strong in May, Thanks Largely to a Major Distortion in Inflation-Adjustment Consistency
• Consumer Goods Production Fell Sharply, Contravening �Booming� Retail Sales

No. 954: May 2018 Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revisions June, 8th, 2018 • Troubled Economic Reporting in the Month or Two Ahead
• Benchmark-Revised Patterns of GDP Economic Activity Should Show a Softer 2007 Peak, a Deeper Collapse into 2009 and a Less-Robust Recovery, with Downgraded Growth in 2015 to 2017
• U.S. Trade-Balance Benchmark Revisions Indicated a Slower Economy and a Deeper Real Merchandise Trade Deficit than Before
• April Nominal Balance of Payments Deficit Improved in April 2018
• Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continued to Tighten, as Real Household Debt Contracted in First-Quarter 2018, while Slowing Annual Growth in Real Consumer Credit Intensified Sharply in April 2018

No. 953-B: May 2018 Employment and Unemployment, April Construction Spending June, 5th, 2018 • Massive Inconsistencies Arise in the Headline Household-Survey Numbers Due to Severity of Great-Recession Increase in Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• Despite Historically-Low Unemployment Rates, the Number of Discouraged Workers and those Wanting a Job Are on the Rise
• May 2018 Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio, Which Are Traditional Measures of Labor-Market Health, Remained Consistent with Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High of 10% than a Record Low of 3.8%; Headline Circumstance Could be Supporting a Further 11.1 Million Employed
• May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8% (3.75%), Lowest Rate Since April 2000, at the First Decimal Point, at a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low, at the Second Decimal Point; Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
• On Top of U.3, May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Increased Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

No. 953-A: May 2018 Monetary Conditions, Labor Numbers, April Construction Spending June, 1st, 2018 • Federal Reserve Has Pushed Real Annual Money Supply Growth Down to Levels That Threaten an Intensifying, �New� Economic Contraction
• Annual Growth Weakened Sharply for All Money Supply Measures in May 2018, Along with Continued Monthly and Annual Contractions in the Monetary Base
• May Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High Than a Record Low
• Headline May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8%, Lowest Level Since October 2000, at the First Decimal Point
• May U.3 (Second Decimal Point) Hit a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low of 3.75%, Down from 3.93% in April, Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
• May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, the Lowest Since October 2000
• The May ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Lowest Since September 2009, Declining on Top of U.6 but Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Surging Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

No. 952: GDP, GNP and GDI, Private Labor Surveying, Retail Sales Overhaul May, 30th, 2018 • Private Labor Surveying Showed Retrenchment in May 2018
• Benchmarked Retail Sales Showed Fundamentally-Weakened Growth
• Contracting Consumer Goods and Housing Elements in the GDP Reflect Mounting Liquidity Stresses, Amidst Faltering Consumer Optimism
• First-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Slowed to a Revised 2.17% (Previously 2.32%), Down from 2.89% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Trade Deficit Widened in Revision, Weakening Revised Headline GDP Growth by 0.12% (-0.12%)
• Downwardly-Revised Inventory Growth Weakened Revised GDP by 0.29% (-0.29%)
• Upwardly-Revised Gain in the Nebulous �Intellectual Properties� Category of Fixed Investment Boosted Revised GDP Growth by 0.29%
• Initial Growth in First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Purported GDP-Equivalent, Increased to 2.80% from an Upwardly-Revised 1.05% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
• Initial Growth in Gross National Product (GNP), the Broadest National Income Measure, Dropped to 2.00% from 2.71% in Fourth-Quarter 2017
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Show Continuing Economic Non-Expansion

No. 951: New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Retail Sales Benchmarking May, 25th, 2018 • Retail Sales Benchmarking Was Unbelievably Negligible, Shifting Growth Minimally from 2015 through 2017, into 2018
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Retail Sales Annualized Contraction Narrowed to 1.71% (-1.71%) from 2.05% (-2.05%), Still the Deepest Drop Since the 2009 Depths of the Great Recession
• Sharp Downside Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Left Real Orders Shy by 7.1% (-7.1%) of Recovering Their Pre-Recession Peak
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Both Took Monthly Tumbles in April, Down Respectively by 1.5% (-1.5%) and 2.5% (-2.5%), Still Shy by 52.3% (-52.3%) and 24.9% (-24.9%) of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks

No. 950: April Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Freight and Benchmark Revisions May, 20th, 2018 • Benchmark Revisions Knocked Off Roughly Two-Percent Real Growth from Manufacturers’ Shipments and Related Economic Activity Since 2015
• Monthly Gains of 0.7% in Both March and April 2018 Industrial Production Were a Decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) and a Gain of 0.1%, Net of Prior Months’ Revisions
• First-Quarter Industrial Production and Manufacturing Revised Sharply Lower: Production Now 0.43% (-0.43%) Below Fourth-Quarter 2014 Peak (Previously Recovered); First-Quarter Manufacturing Now 6.07% (-6.07%) Below Its Pre-Recession Peak
• April Manufacturing Hit a Record 124 Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• April Freight Index Rose to a Post-Recession High, With Strong Annual Growth, Albeit Off Peak, with Activity Still Shy by 6.65% (-6.65%) of a Full Recovery
• April Real Retail Sales Gained 0.08% in the Month, 2.20% Year-to-Year, With Likely Major Downside Benchmark Revisions Looming on May 25th
• Despite Upside Revisions to February and March Real Retail Sales, the Somewhat-Narrowed First-Quarter Contraction of 2.05% (-2.05%) Still Was Deepest Since the 2009 Depths of the Great Recession
• Given No Apparent Improvement in Reporting Quality, Annual Revisions to Nonsensically-Volatile Housing Starts Were Nil; Inconsistent Building Permits Revised Higher by 2.1% Only in 2017
• Starts and Permits Continued in Low Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation, Still Down by 43.4% (-43.4%) and 40.3% (-40.3%) from Pre-Recession Highs

No. 949: April Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings May, 11th, 2018 • A Double-Whammy from Oil-Price-Driven Inflation: Surging Inflation Impairs Real Income, Liquidity and Economic Growth; Surging Prices Do Not Reflect Surging Economic Demand
• April 2018 Inflation-Adjusted, Real Average Weekly Earnings Fell for All Employees (Rose for Production and Supervisory); Quarterly Contractions Held in Place
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, April 2018 Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to an Eight-Month Low
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to a 14-Month High of 2.46% in April 2018, Up from 2.36% in March 2018, Holding Well Shy of Common Experience
• “Core” CPI-U Inflation (Ex-Food and Energy) Held at 2.1% in April, Above the Fed’s 2.0% Target for a Second Straight Month
• April Annual PPI Inflation Eased to a 7-Month Low of 2.57%, Backing Off the 74-Month High of 3.03% Seen in March
• Nothing Like Massaged Inflation Numbers to Boost You into a Higher Tax Bracket

No. 948: April Labor Data, Private Labor and Income Surveys, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending May, 9th, 2018 • New Private and Public Surveys Raise Serious Doubts as to the Quality and Significance of the Headline Economic Boom, Given Weakening Labor Conditions and Negligible Growth in Real Household Income
• Intensifying Labor-Market Stress in April 2018 Was More Consistent with Headline U.3 Unemployment at 10.4%, Instead of the New 17-Year Low of 3.9%
• April U.3 Eased to 3.93% from 4.07% in March, U.6 Declined to 7.79% from 8.00%, ShadowStats-Alternate Dropped to 21.5% from 21.7%, on Top of U.6 and U.3
• Headline Count of Employed in April Was Down from February by 34,000 (-34,000); Gaining Only 3,000 in the Month, Having Declined by 37,000 (-37,000) in March
• April Payroll-Jobs Count Rose by 164,000 (up 194,000 Net of Revisions), with Annual Growth at 1.55%, Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Widened versus Fourth-Quarter, Contrary to Initial First-Quarter 2018 GDP Reporting
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 20.9% (-20.9%), Down by 2.4% (-2.4%) in March 2018, by 0.6% (-0.6%) Year-to-Year, Despite Large Upside Revisions to January and February Activity
• Annual Money Supply Growth Weakened in April for All Measures, Along with a Contracting Monetary Base: Declining Real Liquidity Growth Threatens the Economy

No. 947: First-Quarter GDP, March New-Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales April, 27th, 2018 • The Consumer Suffered Heavily in First-Quarter 2018, Reflected in Contracting Goods Consumption and Unchanged Residential Investment
• It Is the U.S. Consumer Who Fundamentally Drives the Economy, Not the Healthcare, Insurance or Financial-Services Industries
• Consumer Liquidity Conditions Bode Poorly for Near-Term Activity
• First-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Slowed to an Upwardly-Gimmicked 2.32% from 2.89% in Fourth-Quarter 2017, Amidst Unusual Inflation- and Trade-Deficit-Reporting Patterns
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Show No Economic Expansion
• Some Pick-Up in the Velocity of Broader Money Supply
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, Indicated as Worst Since Third-Quarter 2006, Backed Off Its Worst-Ever Reading
• First-Quarter Real Durable Goods Orders Were Flat, Ex-Commercial Aircraft
• First-Quarter 2018 Existing-Home Sales Fell by an Annualized 6.1% (-6.1%) in the Quarter, by 1.7% (-1.7%) Year-to-Year, Despite Gains in Wildly-Unstable and Volatile New-Home Sales Reporting
• Major Downside Benchmark Revisions Loom for Series Such as New Orders for Durable Goods and Retail Sales, and a Widened the Trade Deficit; Beware the GDP Comprehensive Benchmark Revision in July

No. 946: March Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Freight Index, Housing Starts, GDP Outlook April, 22nd, 2018 • First-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Should Slow Much More Sharply Than Expected
• Nothing Supports the Existing Purported Post-Recession GDP Expansion of 15.3%, Including Headline Production and Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Construction, Payroll Employment and Civilian Employed, Trade Deficit, Credit Growth, Freight Activity and Domestic Petroleum Consumption
• April Consumer Outlook Took a Hit, Amidst Faltering Earnings and Credit
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Retail Sales Contraction of 2.6% (-2.6%) Was Deepest Since Depths of the Great Recession
• Real Sales Growth Backed Off from Fourth-Quarter Natural-Disaster Boosts, Yet, Annual Real Growth Also Fell Deep into Recession-Warning Territory, versus First-Quarter 2017, Which Was Not Disaster-Impacted
• March Freight Index Continued Higher with Strong Annual Growth, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak Activity by 7.4% (-7.4%)
• Given a Record 41 Quarters, 123 Months of Economic Non-Expansion, March Manufacturing Still Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 5.4% (-5.4%)
• Continuing in Nonsensical Monthly Booms and Busts, March 2018 Housing Starts Gained 1.9% on Top of Sharp Upside Revisions to February, Still in Low Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation and Shy by 42.0% (-42.0%) of Beginning Its Economic Expansion

No. 945: March Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings April, 11th, 2018 • For All Employees, First-Quarter 2018 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted 0.4% (-0.4%), along with Slowing Real Growth in Consumer Credit
• Quarterly Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted 1.5% (-1.5%) for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, the Third Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth in the Last Six Quarters
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to a 12-Month High 2.36% in March 2018, Up from 2.21% in February 2018, Still Holding Well Shy of Common Experience
• Fed’s Targeted “Core” Inflation Broke Above 2.0%, to 2.1% in March 2018, Highest Level in 13 Months • Annual PPI Inflation Rose to a 74-Month High of 3.03% in March 2018, Reflecting Jumps in Food Prices and Outpatient Costs
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, March 2018 Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to a Six-Month Low
• Next Week’s Headline Economic Reporting Could Lock in a First-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Contraction
• Nonetheless, While Not Close to an Economic Expansion, Some Positive Anecdotal Evidence on the Economy Is Surfacing

No. 944: March Labor Conditions, Private Surveying, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending April, 8th, 2018 • No Such Thing as Free Trade
• Worst-Ever Quarterly Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track, Fueling Trade “Negotiations” and Dollar, Stock-Market and Economic Concerns
• Increase in Nominal Balance-of-Payments Deficit in Goods and Services Reflected Services Import of Intellectual Property for Broadcasting the Winter Olympics
• March 2018 Household-Survey Count of Employed Declined by 37,000 (-37,000), While Full-Time Employed Dropped by 311,000 (-311,000)
• March Payroll-Jobs Count Rose by 103,000 (by 53,000 Net of Revisions) but the Gain Was Not Statistically Different from Zero at the 95% Confidence Level; Bloated January and February Payroll Levels Revised Lower
• March 2018 Unemployment Rates Declined Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.07% versus 4.14%, U.6 Declined to 8.00% from 8.24%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Declined to 21.7% from 21.8%
• Private Surveying of March Labor Conditions Showed Weakening Annual Growth and No Economic Expansion
• Mixed but Faltering Annual Real Growth in Construction Spending Continued in a Pattern Last Seen Leading into the 2007 Recession
• Annual Growth in March Money Supply Measures Slowed Sharply; Monetary Base Declined Year-to-Year; Weakened Real Liquidity Growth Threatens Economic Activity

No. 943: Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Gross Domestic Income, Trade March, 29th, 2018 • Fourth-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product GDP Annualized Real Growth Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.54%), Down from 3.16% in Third-Quarter 2017
• Fourth-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Slowed to 0.87% from 2.44% in Third-Quarter
• Fourth-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), Broadest Measure of the Economy, Slowed to 2.71% from 3.65% in Third-Quarter
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Merchandise Trade Continued on Track for Worst Shortfall in Modern Reporting
• March Economic Numbers Should Disappoint Expectations
• First-Quarter GDP Increasingly Looks Like a Contraction
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Economic Expansion

No. 942-B: Industrial Production Benchmarking, February New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales March, 27th, 2018 • Accompanying Graphs Show Basic Nature of Upside Biases Regularly Built into Official Economic Reporting
• Industrial Production of Recent Years Revised Meaningfully Lower, Dominated by Much-Weaker Manufacturing, Including Weaker Auto Production
• Production Now Shows a Formal Double-Dip Recession, from a December 2007 Peak and a Brief, Oil-Production-Driven Expansion to a Now, Non-Recovered November 2014 Peak
• Manufacturing Now Is Shy by 5.5% (-5.5%) of Its Never-Recovered December 2007 Peak, Still Holding in a Record 122 Months of Non-Expansion
• Pending Negative Benchmarkings Implied for Retail Sales, New Orders for Durable Goods and the Gross Domestic Product • Signals Continued for First-Quarter 2018 GDP Contraction, as the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Disaster-Recovery Boom Turns to Bust
• Real Durable Goods Orders and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Showed Unfolding First-Quarter Contractions, versus Fourth-Quarter Booms, Despite Monthly Gains in February
• Real New Orders Activity and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Remained Well Shy of Recovering Their Pre-2007 Recession Peaks
• February 2018 Freight Index Hit a Post-2007 Recession High, Still Shy by 11.2% (-11.2%) of Recovering its Pre-2007 Recession Peak

No. 942-A: Industrial Production Benchmarking, February New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales March, 23rd, 2018 • Industrial Production Revised Meaningfully Lower, Dominated by Much-Weaker Manufacturing, As Predicted
• Signals Mount for First-Quarter GDP Contraction, as the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Disaster-Recovery Boom Turns to a Bust
• Real Durable Goods Orders, Both Aggregate and Ex-Commercial-Aircraft, Showed an Unfolding Flat-to-Minus First-Quarter, Versus a Fourth-Quarter Boom
• Real New Orders Activity Remained Shy in Aggregate by 8.0% (-8.0%), and in Ex-Commercial Aircraft by 5.3% (-5.3%) from Recovering Pre-Recessions Highs
• Still Shy by 11.2% (-11.2%) of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, February Freight Index Hit a Post-Recession High
• Both New- and Existing-Home Sales Showed Large Fourth-Quarter Gains Turning into Large First-Quarter Contractions
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Mixed, but Held Shy of Their Pre-Recession Peaks by 55.5% (-55.5%) and 23.8% (-23.8%)

No. 941: February Industrial Production and Housing Starts March, 19th, 2018 • Subject to Likely, Downside Annual Benchmark Revisions this Coming Friday, February Industrial Production Jumped by 1.1% (0.9% Net of Revisions), Reflecting Strength in Manufacturing and Mining
• Given a Record 122 Months of Non-Expansion, Manufacturing Still Holds Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 3.7% (-3.7%)
• Manufacturing Gains Likely Reflected Some Inventory Rebuilding Against Weakening Sales, As Disaster-Recovery Bloat Passes from the System
• Continuing in Nonsensical Monthly Booms and Busts, February Housing Starts Activity Fell by 7.0% (-7.0%),
Still Shy by 45.6% (-45.6%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• First-Quarter 2018 GDP Outlook Continued to Weaken
• Nonetheless, the FOMC Appears Set for a Rate Hike on Wednesday

No. 940: February Retail Sales, Real Income, CPI, PPI and the Financial Markets March, 15th, 2018 • As a Weakening Economy Threatens Fed Policy, Watch the Dollar!
• Headline Retail Sales Helped Put the Lie to the Happy Jobs Report; Recession Signal Remained Heavily in Place
• February Real Retail Sales Declined Month-to-Month by 0.22% (-0.22%), but the Monthly Decline was 0.48% (-0.48%), Net of Seasonal-Factor Reporting Inconsistencies
• With Three Consecutive Monthly Contractions in Place Real Sales Are on Solid Course for a First-Quarter Contraction, Increasingly, So Is the GDP
• Real Average Weekly Earnings on Track for Third-Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth Headline Quarter-to-Quarter Decline in the Last Six Quarters
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, February Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to a Five-Month Low
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to 2.21% in February, from 2.07% in January, Annual PPI Inflation Rose to 2.77% from 2.69%, Well Shy of Common Experience, Still Dominated by Irregular Volatility in Adjusted, Monthly Gasoline Prices
• Fed’s Targeted 2.0% “Core” Inflation Held Range-Bound at 1.8% for the 11th Month

No. 939: February Employment and Unemployment, Private Surveying, M3, January Trade Deficit March, 9th, 2018 • Worst-Ever Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Looms, Pushing Trade Policy and Dollar Concerns to the Fore
• Unstable Numbers Were Inconsistent with Related Economic Data, In an Otherwise Not Credible Employment and Unemployment Report
• Non-Comparable, Shifting Seasonal Adjustments Bloated Payroll Growth
• Payroll Jobs Jumped by 313,000, While the Count of the Household Survey Employed Jumped by 785,000, Yet the Number of Unemployed Rose, Too?
• February 2018 Unemployment Rates Changed Minimally Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.14% versus 4.15%, U.6 Rose to 8.24% from 8.19%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.8%
• Private Surveying of February Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Contractions, Annual Growth but No Economic Expansion
• Fed Policy to be Pressured by a Faltering Economy and Dollar Issues
• February Money Supply M1, M2 and M3 and the Monetary Base Slowed Sharply

No. 938: Revised Fourth-Quarter 2017 GDP, January 2018 Construction Spending March, 1st, 2018 • Headline Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision from 2.6% to 2.5% Was Just a 0.01% Rounding Difference, from 2.55% to 2.54%
• Fortuitously, a Sharp Downside Revision to the Goods Sector Was Just Offset by Revised Gains in the Structures and Nebulous Services Sectors
• First-Quarter 2018 GDP Increasingly Looks Like a Contraction
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Economic Expansion
• Boosted by Public Spending, January Real Construction Spending Still Dropped 0.2% (-0.2%) Month-to-Month, 0.2% (-0.2%) Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.0% (-21.0%)
• Faltering Annual Real Growth in Construction Spending Continued in a Pattern Last Seen Leading into the 2007 Recession

No. 937: January Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Trade, Freight Index February, 27th, 2018 • First-Quarter 2018 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Early Track for Worst Shortfall in Modern Reporting
• January 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods Tumbled Month-to-Month, Both Before and After Considering Inflation and Commercial Aircraft Orders
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Declined Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Pre-Recession Peaks by 57.3% (-57.3%) and 26.0% (-26.0%)
• Freight Index Jumped Sharply Year-to-Year But Continued in Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 12.0% (-12.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High

No. 936: January Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, CPI and PPI February, 19th, 2018 • Natural-Disaster Boost to the Economy Topped Out in November 2017; Now Backing Off with a Vengeance, as Predicted
• Watch the Dollar!
• January 2018 Industrial Production Declined 0.1% (-0.1%) Month-to-Month, On Top of Downside Revisions to December Activity
• Production Peaked in November, Net of a Record, Winter-Driven Utility Surge
• January Real Retail Sales Plunged 0.8% (-0.8%), Dropping 1.2% (-1.2%) Net of Sharp Downside Revisions to December and Holiday-Season Activity; Annual Growth Fell Deep into Recession-Warning Territory
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Head into Third-Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth Headline Quarter-to-Quarter Decline in the Last Six Quarters
• “Surging” Housing Starts Activity Was Statistically Insignificant, as Usual, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 41.7% (-41.7%)
• Someone Used Contrary Hype to Boost Interest Rates or to Spook Stocks: Headline “Fears of Soaring Inflation” Greeted Annual “Core” CPI-U Inflation Holding Predictably Range-Bound at 1.8%, for the Tenth Month, versus the Fed’s 2.0% Target
• Monthly Inflation Gains of 0.54% and 0.44% in the January CPI-U and PPI Were Dominated by Irregular Volatility in Adjusted, Monthly Gasoline Prices
• Common Inflation Experience Is Much Worse than the Headline Numbers

No. 935 - SPECIAL COMMENTARY, ANNUAL REVIEW - PART ONE Economic and Financial Review and Preview February, 12th, 2018 • Did the Fed Trigger the Stock Sell-Off?
• How Can the Economy Be Booming, Given Ten Years of Ongoing Non-Expansion in Manufacturing, Real Construction Spending, Housing Starts and Home Sales, Domestic Freight Activity, Domestic Petroleum Consumption, Real Consumer Credit (Ex-Federal Student Loans) and Given a Decade of Stressed-Employment Conditions?
• As Natural-Disaster Spending Boosts Wane, Stagnant Economic Conditions Face a Renewed Tumble in Months Ahead
• Renewed Downturn Could Trigger Resurgent Fed Pressures for Expanded Quantitative Easing and Intensified Dollar Debasement
• Budget-Deficit Issues Should Become Focus of the Currency Markets
• Long-Range U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Health Depend on Resolving Both Misdirected Policies of the Federal Reserve and
Intensifying U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns of the Global Markets
• Massive U.S. Dollar Selling, Debasement and Eventual Hyperinflation Continue as the Primary Risks to Domestic Economic and Political Stability; Precious Metals Remain the Proven and Established Primary Hedge to Same

934-B Market Turmoil, January Labor, Payroll Benchmarking, December Trade Deficit February, 6th, 2018 • Unexpected Faltering in U.S. Economic Activity Likely Will Not Benefit Disorderly Markets
• Annual 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007, with the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Deficit Worst Since Second-Quarter 2007
• Trade Deficit Exploded Versus China, NAFTA and OPEC
• Widened Deficit Adds Downside-Revision Pressure to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Sinking Annual Payroll Growth Intensified Its Recession Signal, Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels
• Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People, Boosting a Magical (Illusioned) 409,000 Surge in January Employment
• January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month: U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%

No. 934-A: January Labor, Payroll Benchmark, Private Surveying, M3, December Construction Spending February, 2nd, 2018 • Recession Signal Intensified from Sinking Annual Growth in Payrolls, Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels
• Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People
• January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month: U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%
• Private Surveying of January Labor Conditions Showed Flat Activity with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• December Monthly Gain in Real Construction Spending Contracted Net of Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth in Real Construction Spending Declined for Seventh Straight Month, an Intensifying Recession Signal Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Real Spending Is Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• Amidst Annual Benchmark Revisions by the Fed, January 2018 M3 Annual Growth Eased Back to 4.5%, with Monetary-Base Annual Growth Softening to 4.9%

No. 933: Dollar Turmoil, Fourth-Quarter GDP, New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales January, 26th, 2018 • As the U.S. Dollar Weakens, and Gold and Oil Prices Jump, Watch Out for the Stock Market!
• The Worst Trade Deficit Since 2007 Clobbered Fourth-Quarter GDP; Deteriorating Net Exports Knocked 1.13% (-1.13%) Off Quarterly Growth
• Fourth- Versus Third-Quarter Real GDP Growth Slowed to 2.55% from 3.16%, with Inventory Liquidation and a Soaring Trade Deficit Offsetting Some of the Gains from Surging Defense Spending and Disaster-Boosted Demand for Goods and Structures
• Net of Trade and Inventories, Fourth- Versus Third-Quarter Real GDP Growth Jumped to 4.35% from 2.01%
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Full Recovery from the Recession: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Freight Activity and Manufacturing All Have Completed a Full Decade of No Economic Expansion
• Defense Spending Boosted December Durable Goods Orders Sharply
• Faltering Consumer Outlook
• Foreclosures Appear to Be on the Rise, as Existing-Home Sales Sink Anew
• On Top of Sharp Downside Revisions to November Home Sales, December Activity Plunged Monthly by 9.3% (-9.3%) and by 3.6% (-3.6%) for New and Existing Homes, Shy of Respective Pre-Recession Peaks by 55.0% (-55.0%) and 23.4% (-23.4%)

No. 932: December Industrial Production and Housing Starts January, 18th, 2018 • Hurricane Distortions to Economic Reporting Start to Unwind
• Two-Thirds of the 0.9% Monthly Jump in December 2017 Industrial Production Reflected Unseasonably-Bad Weather Boosting Utility Usage
• Full-Year 2017 Production Rose by 1.95%, Following Full-Year Annual Declines of 1.22% (-1.22%) in 2016 and 0.71% (-0.71%) in 2015
• Big Swings in Mining Activity (Oil Production) Drove Those Full-Year Changes, versus Annual Stagnation in Utilities and in the Much-Larger Manufacturing Sector, Despite a Late-2017 Manufacturing Surge for Hurricane-Damaged-Vehicle Replacement
• Fourth Quarter Industrial Production Regained Its Pre-Recession Peak for a Second Time • Dominant Manufacturing Sector Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 4.54% (-4.54%), Just Having Passed a Full 10 Years, 120 Months or 40 Quarters of Continuous Non-Expansion; Longest Period of Non-Expansion in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
• In Ongoing Extreme, Monthly Volatility, December Housing Starts Plunged by 8.2% (-8.2%), Reflecting Some Negative Catch Up, as Hurricane-Distorted Boosts Began to Unwind • New Residential Construction Remained in Low-Level, Downtrending Stagnation, with Building Permits Shy by 42.5% (-42.5%), Housing Starts Shy by 47.6% (-47.6%) and Single-Unit Starts Shy by 54.1% (-54.1%) of Recovering Pre-Great Recession Peak Activity
• Multiple-Unit Starts Recovered in 2015, but Have Fallen Back Since by 20.9% (-20.9%) from Their Pre-Recession High

No. 931: December Retail Sales, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Financial Markets January, 15th, 2018 • Headline Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted; Annual Real Earnings Growth Fell to a Five-Year Low
• December Real Retail Sales Softened, but Headline Activity Surged for the Holiday Season, Despite Contracting Real Earnings and Slowing Real Growth in Consumer Credit
• Nominal Fourth-Quarter Sales Jump Reflected Higher Inflation and Insurance Payments
• CPI-U Monthly Inflation Slowed to 0.15% in December 2017, Annual Growth Slowed to 2.11%, with Core Inflation at 1.78%, Still Below FOMC Target
• Final-Demand PPI Monthly Inflation Declined by 0.09% (-0.09%) in December 2017, Annual Gain Pulled Back to 2.61%, from a 70-Month High of 3.07% in November 2017
• Dampened PPI Inflation Reflected a Reversal from Hurricane-Disrupted Energy Prices, with Monthly Goods Inflation at 0.00% and Services Down by 0.17% (-0.17%)
• Despite the Booming Headline Numbers, Prospects Continue to Darken for U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Activity
• Tax Cuts and High Stock Prices Are Positive for the Economy, but Do Not Mistake Inflation and a Declining Dollar for Increased Wealth or Income

No. 930-B: December Labor, Private Surveying and M3, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January, 8th, 2018 • Weaker-Than-Consensus 148,000 Payroll Gain Was Boosted by Downside Revisions, Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal a New Recession
• Annual Household Survey Revisions Were Negligible for Headline U.3, but Not as Placid for Broader Unemployment and Other Measures
• December 2017 Unemployment Rates Were Mixed Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.07% from 4.12%, U.6 Rose to 8.08% from 7.99% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.7%: No Full Employment
• Indicators of Stressed-Employment Conditions Have Re-Intensified, Following Brief, Hurricane-Distorted Improvements in September
• Private Surveying of December Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Gains, but with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• Monthly Trade Deficit Topped $50 Billion for First Time in Five Years, with Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Solid Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007
• Despite a November Gain on Top of Upside Revisions, Real Construction Spending Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• December 2017 M3 Annual Growth Jumped to Back to a Two-Year of 4.8%, as Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Three-Year High of 9.7%

No. 930-A: December Labor, Private Surveying and M3, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January, 5th, 2018 • Annual Household Survey Revisions Were Negligible for Headline U.3, but Not as Placid for Broader Unemployment and Other Measures
• December 2017 Unemployment Rates Were Mixed Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.07% from 4.12%, U.6 Rose to 8.08% from 7.99%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.7%
• Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal a New Recession • Private Surveying of December Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Gains, but with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• Trade Deficit Widened Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year with the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Still on Solid Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007
• Despite a November Gain on Top of Upside Revisions, Real Construction Spending Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• December 2017 M3 Annual Growth Jumped Back to a Two-Year High of 4.8%, as Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Three-Year High of 9.3%

No. 929: A Challenging and Potentially Dangerous Year Ahead December, 28th, 2017 • 2018: An Unusually Challenging and Unsettled Time, with Likely Tumultuous Markets, a Non-Recovering Economy, Political Turmoil and Election Surprises
• Faltering Consumer Outlook and Tightening Liquidity Conditions Are Inconsistent with Shrinking Unemployment and Surging Holiday-Season Sales
• Beyond Data Disruptions, Booming Headline Economic Activity Has Been Fueled by One-Time Insurance Payments and Liquidation of Savings, Not by Regular or Sustainable Income Growth
• December 2017 Marks the Tenth Anniversary of the Formal Onset of the 2007 Recession
• Economic Expansion Is Defined as Growth Beyond the Prior Business-Cycle Peak
• Key Headline Measures of Consumer and Industrial Activity Still Remain Shy of Recovering Pre-2007 Recession Peaks
• Trade Deficit Has Turned Increasingly Negative for Fourth-Quarter GDP

No. 928: November Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales and Revised GDP December, 22nd, 2017 • New-Home Sales Reporting-Illusion Reflected Absurd Volatility: Multi-Decade-High Surge of 17.5% in November 2017 Sales Was a Gimmick; Considering Massive Downside Revisions, Recast Sales Boom Contracted by 1.9% (-1.9%);
Headline Detail Still Shy by 47.2% (-47.2%) of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak
• Boosted Heavily by Unstable Seasonal Adjustments, November Existing-Home Sales Jumped 5.6% Month-to-Month, Still Holding Shy by 20.0% (-20.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• As Hurricane-Disruptions Work Out of the New Orders System, Real Annual Durable Goods Growth Slowed Sharply, Ex-Volatile Commercial Aircraft
• Real New Orders for Durable Goods Remained Down by 9.7% (-9.7%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Third Estimate of Real Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.16% (Previously 3.30%), versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter 2017
• Second Estimate of Third-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 3.65% (was 3.47%); Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.03% (was 2.53%)
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion

No. 927: November Housing Starts, Freight Index, Outlook for the Markets, Dollar and Gold December, 19th, 2017 • Stocks Continue to Boom, with Extreme Downside Vulnerability to Near-Term Negative Economic Surprises and Otherwise
• Pending Run on the U.S. Dollar Should Mirror a Flight into Gold and Silver
• Economic Reporting Does Not Reflect Costs of Destruction from Natural Disasters, but It Does Reflect Gains from Temporary Relief and Recovery Activity
• Freight Index Continued in Non-Recovered, Low-Level Stagnation
• Nonsense Volatility and Revisions Hit November 2017 Housing Starts, Amidst a Continued Likely Boost from Disaster Recovery
• Headline Gain of 3.3% Was 0.5% Net of Revisions • Activity Remained in Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation, with Housing Starts Still Shy of Their Pre-Recession High by 42.9% (-42.9%) and Single-Unit Starts Shy of Recovery by 51.6% (-51.6%)
• Multiple-Unit Starts Recovered in 2015, but Have Fallen Back Since by 18.4% (-18.4%) from Their Pre-Recession Peak
• Building Permits Remained Shy of Recovery by 42.6% (-42.6%)

No. 926: November Industrial Production and Retail Sales December, 15th, 2017 • Despite Mixed Headline Economic Numbers, Uncertainty Is Holding Back Real-World Business Activity
• Booming Retail Sales Reflected Complications with Non-Seasonal, Residual Hurricane Distortions Combined with Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments
• November 2017 Retail Sales Jumped by 0.79%, up by 0.40% Net of Inflation, On Top of Sharp Upside Revisions to September and October Activity
• Running Contrary to the Strong Retail Sales Report, November 2017 Consumer Goods Production Dropped by 0.39% (-0.39%) and Revised Sharply Lower in October, September, August, July and June
• November 2017 Total Industrial Production Rose 0.2% from an Unrevised, Hurricane-Distorted/Boosted October Production Level, in the Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to September and Earlier Activity
• Net of an Oil Production Boost from Hurricane Nate Recovery, November Industrial Production was “Unchanged” Month-to-Month, per the Fed
• Dominant Manufacturing Sector of Industrial Production Remained Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 4.7% (-4.7%)
• November Manufacturing Showed 119 Months of Continuous Non-Expansion, the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Industrial Production Series; Second Worst: 96-Months of Post-World War II Retooling from War to Consumer Production; Third Worst: 88-Months of the First Down-Leg in the Great Depression

No. 925: November CPI and PPI Inflation, FOMC December, 13th, 2017 • Unable to Escape 2008, FOMC Boosted Rates a Quarter-Point, Nonetheless, Amidst Fed Projections of Lower Unemployment and a Stronger GDP
• Yet, Fundamentals Still Point to a Weaker Economy as Fed Chair Janet Yellen Described the Economic Outlook as “Highly Uncertain”
• Prospects for U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Activity Continued to Darken; Faltering Real Consumer Credit and Earnings Do Not Support the Purported Boom
• Amidst Downside Prior-Period Revisions, Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Average Weekly Earnings Were on Track for Second Consecutive Quarterly Contraction
• Monthly and Annual Jumps in CPI and PPI Were Due to Gasoline Price Swings; Headline Inflation Gains Were Not Due to Strong or Over-Heating Economic Activity
• November 2017 CPI-U Monthly Inflation Jumped by 0.39% (Was 0.11%) Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 2.20% (Was 2.04%), with CPI-W at 2.32% (Was 2.06%) and ShadowStats at 9.9% (Was 9.8%)
• November 2017 Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44% Pulled Annual Gain to a 70-Month High of 3.07%, versus 2.79% in October 2017
• Continuing Monthly Jump of 0.44% in November PPI was Dominated by Gain of 0.98% in Goods Inflation (4.63% Energy Gain), Versus Gain of 0.17% in Services
• Inflation Will Soften November Real Retail Sales Growth versus Nominal Growth by 0.4% (-0.4%) Month-to-Month, 2.2% (-2.2%) Year-to-Year

No. 924: November Labor, Private Surveying and M3, October Trade Deficit and Construction Spending December, 8th, 2017 • Private Surveying of November Labor Conditions Showed Continuing Annual Contraction and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• Still-Heavily-Distorted, November Unemployment Rates Notched Minimally Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.12% versus 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 7.96% from 7.91%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.7% from 21.6%
• Hurricane-Warped Unemployment and Employment Household-Survey Details Face Near-Term Corrections with the January 5th Benchmark Revisions
• Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal New Recession • Seasonal-Adjustment Gimmicks Bloated Headline Payroll Gains, where Unadjusted Payrolls Revised Lower but Adjusted Levels Revised Higher; Payroll-Survey Benchmark Revisions Loom for February 2nd
• Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Early Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007
• October 2017 Nominal Balance of Payments Trade Deficit Increased by 8.6% versus September 2017, by 13.1% versus October 2016
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 22.0% (-22.0%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Amidst Expectations of a December 13th FOMC Rate Hike, November 2017 M3 Annual Growth Eased Back to 4.6% from 4.8% in October, as Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Four-Year High of 8.1%

No. 923: Revised Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), October Freight Index, New-Home Sales November, 29th, 2017 • Third-Quarter 2017 Real Per Capita Take-Home Pay (Disposable Personal Income) Contracted at an Annualized Pace of 0.29% (-0.29%) versus Second-Quarter 2017
• That Was on Top of Downside Revisions to Second-Quarter Real Disposable Income, Which Reflected More-Substantive Information from Bureau of Labor Statistics Surveying
• Such Supports Neither a Booming Economy Nor a Soaring Consumer Outlook
• Consumer Surveying, Driven by a Headline Faux-Economic Boom in the Press (Hurricane-Bloated Activity), Remained Strongest Since Collapsing into the 2001 Recession
• Second Estimate of Real Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.30% (Previously 2.99%), versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter 2017
• Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) at 3.47%, versus Second-Quarter at 2.77%; Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) at 2.53%, versus a Downwardly-Revised Second-Quarter of 2.28% (Previously 2.89%)
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion
• October 2017 Advance Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Suggesting a Potential Early Hit to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• With Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Still Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs, Respectively by 50.7% (-50.7%) and 24.6% (-24.6%), Six-Month Smoothed Home Sales Continued in Low-Level, Faltering Stagnation

No. 922: October 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods, Existing-Home Sales November, 22nd, 2017 • Market Irrationality and Vulnerability Amidst Expectations for a Booming Economy in 2018
• Hurricane-Disruptions Boosted Recent Headline Economic Activity, With Continued Upside Impact on October 2017 Durable Goods Orders
• Nonetheless, Orders Contracted Both Before and After Consideration of Inflation and Volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Real Orders Remained Down by 11.6% (-11.6%) from Recovering Pre-Recession Peak • Monthly Gain of 2.0% in October Existing-Home Sales Included a Downside Revision to September Activity and Some Hurricane Recovery, Along With a Year-to-Year Sales Decline of 0.9% (-0.9%)
• With Monthly Activity Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 24.6% (-24.6%), Smoothed Existing-Home Sales Continued in Low-Level, Faltering Stagnation

No. 921: October 2017 Industrial Production, New Residential Construction November, 17th, 2017 • Hurricane-Boosted October 2017 Industrial Production Recovered Its 2007 Pre-Recession High for a Second Time, At Least Briefly
• Nonrecurring Surge in Headline Production Growth Ranged from a Return to Normal Operations to the Manufacturing of Replacements for Storm-Damaged Automobiles
• Showing a Record 118 Months of Continuous Non-Expansion, the Dominant Manufacturing Sector of Production Remained
Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 4.7% (-4.7%)
• Regularly-Volatile Housing Starts and Building Permits Surged in October, Including Some Temporary Hurricane-Driven Boost
• Housing Starts Are Shy of Recovering Their Pre-Recession High by 43.2% (-43.2%), Building Permits Still Are Shy by 42.7% (-42.7%)

No. 920: October 2017 Retail Sales, Consumer and Produce Price Indices November, 15th, 2017 • Outlook for U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Activity Continues to Darken
• That Former Malarial Swamp on the Potomac Offers a Tax Bill Penalizing U.S. Tax Payers with the First Formal Use of the Chained-CPI-U
• Unwinding Hurricane Impact Softened October CPI Inflation
• October CPI-U Monthly Inflation Slowed to 0.11% (Was 0.55%) Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.04% (Was 2.23%), with CPI-W at 2.05% (Was 2.31%) and ShadowStats at 9.8% (Was 10.0%)
• A Nonsense October PPI Surge Was Due to Collapsing Gasoline Prices
• October 2017 Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44% Pulled Annual Gain to a 69-Month High of 2.79%, from 2.62% in September 2017
• Unrevised Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined Minimally in Third-Quarter, on Early Track for a Meaningful Fourth-Quarter 2017 Contraction
• Storm Impact Still Boosted October Retail Sales, While Long-Range, Non-Recovering and Downtrending Economic Trends Remained in Play •

No. 919-B October 2017 Employment and Unemployment Reporting November, 6th, 2017 • Unwinding Hurricane Impact Generated Some Nonsense October Labor Reporting; Payroll Survey Appears to Have Settled Back into Its Regular Patterns of Upside Biases, but Household Survey (Unemployment) May Not Stabilize Before December Revisions
• Payroll Jobs Jumped 261,000, Household Survey Employment Plunged 484,000 (-484,000)
• Headline U.3 Unemployment Fell to 17-Year Low of 4.1%, in the Context of Deteriorating Health in Key Employment Indicators
• Plunging Counts of Both Unemployed and Employed Generated an Extreme and Unusual Decline of 765,000 (-765,000) in the Labor Force
• Meaningless Declines in Headline October 2017 Unemployment Rates: U.3 Fell to 4.07% versus 4.22%, U.6 Fell to 7.91% versus 8.29%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 21.6% versus 21.9%
• Plunging Participation Rate and Employment-to-Population Ratio Traditionally Would Concern Fed Chair Janet Yellen

No.919-A: Latest Employment, Trade, Construction Spending, Freight Index and M3 November, 3rd, 2017 • Nonsense Employment and Unemployment Numbers from Unwinding Hurricane Impact: Payroll Employment Jumped 261,000, Household Survey Employment Dropped 484,000 (-484,000); Headline Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.1%, Because Labor Force Shrank by 765,000 (-765,000)
• Meaningless Declines in October 2017 Unemployment Rates: U.3 Fell to 4.07% versus 4.22%, U.6 Fell to 7.91% versus 8.29%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 21.6% versus 21.9%
• Plunging Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio • Private Surveying of October Labor Conditions Signaled Continued Downturn
• September Freight Index Showed Ongoing Economic Downturn and Non-Recovery • Trailing Four Quarters of Real Trade Deficit through Third-Quarter 2017: Worst in a Decade
• Annual and Quarterly Declines in September 2017 Real Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• New Fed Chairman Will Face the Same Banking-System and Economic Challenges that Befuddled the Yellen/Bernanke Chairmanships
• Annual Growth in October Money Supply M3 Jumped to 4.8% from 4.3% in September

No. 918-B :First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP, Economic and Financial Outlook October, 30th, 2017 • Watch For Unexpected Headline Economic Weakness as Artificially Strong Numbers Reverse, with Hurricane Boosts Beginning to Unwind
• Natural-Disaster-Scrambled Data Suggest Looming, Major Revisions A New Fed Chairman Will Face the Same Banking-System and
Economic Challenges that Befuddled the Yellen/Bernanke Chairmanships
• First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 2.99% Versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter, 1.24% in First-Quarter
• Third-Quarter 2017 Final Sales Growth (GDP Net of Inventories) Was 2.26% Versus 2.94% in Second-Quarter, 2.70% in First-Quarter
• Headline GDP Details Did Not Make Sense in Terms of Underlying Series
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Increasingly Indicating a Renewed, Deepening Downturn

No. 918-A: First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) October, 27th, 2017 • First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 2.99% Versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter, 1.24% in First-Quarter
• Third-Quarter 2017 Final Sales Growth (GDP Net of Inventories) Was 2.26% Versus 2.94% in Second-Quarter, 2.70% in First-Quarter
• No GDP Hurricane-Impact Was Discussed by the Issuing Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Headline Details Do Not Make Sense in Terms of Underlying Series
• Natural-Disaster-Scrambled Data Suggest Major Revisions Loom for Recent Headline Data, Ranging from Retail Sales to the GDP
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Increasingly Indicating a Renewed, Deepening Downturn

No. 917: September 2017 Production, Durable Goods Orders, New Construction and Home Sales October, 26th, 2017 • Already Weakened versus Nonsense, Headline Second-Quarter Strength, Relative Third-Quarter GDP Growth Likely Was Softened Further by Disaster Damages, with Less-Than-Offsetting Gains from Early-Recovery Activity
• Natural-Disaster Effects Hit Third-Quarter Production, Boosted Orders and Softened Housing Starts with Mixed Impact on Home Sales
• Pre-Hurricane Headline Production Data Weakened Meaningfully in Revisions; Pre-Existing, Broadly-Negative, Underlying Economic Trends Have Not Changed; General Outlook Remains One of Non-Recovered Business Activity in Renewed Downturn
• In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector of Production: A Record 117 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight September Industrial Production and Manufacturing, Respectively, Were Down by 0.7% (-0.7%) and by 6.3%(-6.3%) from Their Pre-Recession Peaks
• Real Durable Goods Orders Still Down 10.3% (-10.3%) from Recovering Pre-Recession Peak
• September Housing Starts Took a Small Hit from the Tempests, But No More than Seen Within in Regular Monthly Volatility for the Series
• Increasingly-Negative Trends in Smoothed Home Sales and Construction Activity Show Low-Level, Non-Recovered, Faltering Stagnation
• Still Shy of Recovering Their Pre-Recession Peaks: Housing Starts Down by 50.4% (-50.4%), Building Permits Down by 46.3% (-46.3%), New Home Sales Down by 52.0% (-52.0%), Existing-Home Sales Down by 25.9% (-25.9%)

No. 916: September 2017 Retail Sales, Consumer and Producer Price Indices October, 20th, 2017 • Hurricane-Related Boost to September Production Followed Sharp-Downside Revisions to Activity in the Months before the Hurricanes
• September Housing Starts Took a Small Hit from the Tempests, But No More than the Regular Series Volatility in a Given Month
• Storm Disruptions Boosted September Retail Sales and Inflation, yet Long-Range, Non-Recovering and Downtrending Economic Trends Remained in Play
• Disaster-Spiked Economic Activity Usually Favors a Fed Easing, Not a Tightening
• With Mixed Disaster Elements, September Retail Sales Jumped as Expected, Due Particularly to Replacement of Storm-Damaged Automobiles
• Hurricane-Spiked Oil/Gasoline Prices Drove September 2017 CPI and PPI Higher
• September CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.55% Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 2.23% (Was 1.94%), with
CPI-W at 2.31% (Was 1.93%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (Was 9.7%)
• Fed’s Targeted “Core” CPI-U Inflation Held at 1.7% for Fifth Month
• September Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44% Pulled Annual Gain to a 67-Month High of 2.62%, from 2.35% in August
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in September and Minimally in Third-Quarter 2017
• Early-October Consumer Sentiment Highest Since 2004, Still Shy of its 2000 High by 9.7% (-9.7%)
• Consumers Accepting Limits on “Improving Prospects for Living Standards” Was Responsible for the Jump in Optimism?

No. 915: September 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 October, 6th, 2017 • Headline Labor Detail Showed Major Disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, With Mixed-Surveying Definitions Exaggerating or Masking Impact
• Nonsense Data: If One Seasonally Adjusts Scrambled Numbers, the Adjusted Numbers Still Are Scrambled
• Hurricane-Impacted September 2017 Unemployment Rates Declined: U.3 Fell to 4.22% versus 4.44%, U.6 Fell to 8.29% versus 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 21.9% versus 22.2%
• September Household Survey Employment Jumped by 906,000, Including 1,500,000 Counted as Employed, Otherwise Unemployed by the Weather
• September Payroll Survey Employment Declined by 33,000 (-33,000), Down by 71,000 (-71,000) Net of Pre-Hurricane Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth in September Money Supply M3 and the Monetary Base Jumped Sharply

No. 914: August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, September Private Labor Surveying October, 5th, 2017 • U.S. Economy Remains in Serious Trouble: Non-Recovered, Non-Expanding and Turning Down Anew, Separate from Near-Term, Temporary Weather Impact
• Private Surveying of September Labor Conditions Signaled Continued Downturn
• Headline Real Merchandise Trade Deficits in July and August Were Worse than Suggested by the Advance Estimate of the August Goods Trade Deficit
• Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Trade Deficit through Second-Quarter Remained Worst Since 2007, with the Trend Intensifying in Third-Quarter 2017
• Annual Decline in August 2017 Real Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.0% (-23.0%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • Storm-Related Impact on Economic Data Will Break in the Week Ahead

No. 913: Second-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Third Estimate September, 28th, 2017 • Unusual Labor Statistics Ahead?
• Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Revised to 3.06% (Previously 3.03%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.88%), Versus 2.68% in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 2.77% (Previously 2.80%), Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter
• Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Series Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Turning Increasingly to Renewed, Deepening Downturn

No. 912: New Orders for Durable Goods, Home Sales, Hurricane Economic Disruptions September, 27th, 2017 • Mixed Hurricane Impact on Economic Reporting Likely Will Be of Substance in the Next Several Months, Beginning with September 2017 Detail
• Other than for August Industrial Production, Impact Has Been Negligible, So Far
• Underlying Negative Economic Trends Should Not Be Altered Meaningfully
• Net of Inflation and Gyrating Commercial-Aircraft Orders, Durable Goods Orders Were Down by 9.2% (-9.2%) from Their Non-Recovered, Pre-Recession Peak
• In Deepening Quarterly Contractions, August New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Down Respectively by 59.7% (-59.7%) and 26.4% (-26.4%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Six-Month-Smoothed Trends in Home Sales Have Turned Increasingly Negative, Showing Low-Level, Non-Recovered, Faltering Stagnation

No. 911: August 2017 Housing Starts and Building Permits, Freight Index September, 19th, 2017 • Still Shy by 11.4% (-11.4%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, August 2017 Freight Activity Notched Higher Year-to-Year
• August 2017 New Residential Construction Continued in Downtrend
• Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Highs by 42.6% (-42.6%) for Building Permits, 48.1% (-48.1%) for Housing Starts and 53.3% (-53.3%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 26.9% (-26.9%)
• Nonsense-Volatility in the August Housing Starts Series: Monthly Declines in Total and Multiple-Unit Starts and a Gain in Single-Unit Starts All Were Artefacts of Much Larger, Opposite Revisions to July 2017 Activity
• New Residential Construction Should Receive Some Boost in the Months Ahead from Hurricane Destruction and Damage

No. 910: August 2017 Retail Sales and Industrial Production September, 15th, 2017 • Net of Hurricane Harvey Effects, Headline Economic Numbers Still Were Miserable, Suggestive of Recession
• Hurricane Impact on August Activity: Mixed, Probably Net-Neutral for Retail Sales; Accounted for 0.75% (-0.75%) of the 0.90% (-0.90%) Drop in Monthly Production
• August Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.61% (-0.61%) in the Month, Plunged by 1.24% (-1.24%) Net of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions
• Third-Quarter Real Retail Sales Are Contracting at an Early (Two-Month) Annualized Pace of 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Ex-Hurricane, August Industrial Production Declined by 0.15% (-0.15%)
• In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector of Production: A Record 116 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight

No. 909: CPI and PPI, Real Median Household Income, Market and Economic Outlook September, 14th, 2017 • Trouble in Hand and Looming
• Consistently Surveyed, Reported and as Deflated by the Headline CPI-U, 2016 Median Household Income Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession 2007 Peak, Below Levels of the Late-1990s and Minimally Higher than Levels of the Mid-1970s
• 2016 Income Variance and Dispersion Increased, Holding Near Record Highs, Signaling Severe Financial-Market and Economic Stresses in Place
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in August
• Hurricane Harvey May Have Had Minimal Impact on Inflation Data Gathering, but It Certainly Added Upside Pressure on Petroleum-Related Market Prices
• August CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.40% Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.94% (Was 1.73%), with
CPI-W at 1.93% (Was 1.64%) and ShadowStats at 9.7% (Was 9.4%) August 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Rose to 2.35% from 1.90% in July
• Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Continue to Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks in Markets Vulnerable to Turmoil

No. 908-B: August Labor Detail and Payroll Benchmarking, July Trade Deficit and Construction September, 6th, 2017 • Benchmark Revision Added 95,000 Jobs to March 2017 Payrolls
• Amidst Narrowed Revisions, July 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit to Second-Quarter 2017 Were Worst Since 2007; With That Trend Continuing into Early Third-Quarter
• August 2017 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.44% versus 4.35%, U.6 Rose to 8.59% versus 8.57%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.2% versus 22.1%
• August Household Survey Employment Declined by 74,000 (-74,000); Full-Time Jobs Dropped by 166,000 (-166,000)
• Weaker-Than-Expected August Payroll Jobs Gain of 156,000 was Just 115,000 Net of the July Revisions, Within Range of Statistical Insignificance
• August Payroll and Full-Time Employment Annual Growth Rates Dropped to 1.45% and 1.16%, Levels Common at the Onset of Recessions
• Deepening Real Annual Decline in July 2017 Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Despite Upside Revisions to May and June Activity
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend
• Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Increasingly Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil

No. 908-A: August Labor and Monetary Conditions, July Construction Spending September, 1st, 2017 • August 2017 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.44% versus 4.35%, U.6 Rose to 8.59% versus 8.57%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.2% versus 22.1%
• Full-Time Jobs Dropped by 166,000 (-166,000) in July • Weaker-Than-Expected August Payroll Jobs Gain of 156,000 was Just 115,000 Net of the Prior Month’s Revisions, Well Within Range of Statistical Insignificance
• Payroll Revisions Suggestive of Looming Negative Benchmarking
• Annual Payroll and Full-Time Employment Growth Rates Dropped to 1.45% and 1.16%, Levels Common at the Onset of Recessions
• Deepening Real Annual Decline in July 2017 Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen in the Housing Collapse of 2006, Despite Upside Revisions to May and June Activity
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend
• August 2017 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth and Monetary Base Jumped in Tandem; M3 Growth Rose to an Eight-Month High of 3.6%, While the Growth and Level of the Saint Louis Fed Monetary-Base Climbed to Seventeen-Month Highs as of August 16th
• Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Increasingly Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil

No. 907: Second-Quarter Revised GDP, Initial GDI and GNP, Private Jobs Surveying August, 30th, 2017 • Private Surveying of August Labor Conditions Suggests Continuing Collapse
• Despite Booming Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Negligible Real Annual Growth in Per Capita Disposable Income Signaled an Imminent Recession or One Already in Play
• Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.03% (Previously 2.57%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Hit 2.88%, Versus 2.68% (Previously 2.63%) in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Hit 2.80%, Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter
• Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse, No Economic Expansion and Real-World Activity Increasingly Stagnant or in Renewed Downturn

No. 906: July New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales August, 25th, 2017 • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Continue to Peril the Dollar and to Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil
• Better-Quality Reporting than Gimmicked GDP and Employment Shows No Full Recovery from the Economic Collapse, No Economic Expansion, with Real Business Activity Increasingly Stagnant or in Renewed Downturn
• Net of Headline Inflation and Gyrations in Commercial-Aircraft Orders, New Orders Were Down by 9.3% (-9.3%) from Their Non-Recovered, Pre-Recession Peak
• Offering Some Caution for Booming Headline Retail Sales, Motor Vehicle Orders and Shipments Declined in June and July
• Housing and Construction Activity Continued In Deepening Contraction; Six-Month Smoothed Trends All Have Turned Down
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Fell in July, into Third-Quarter 2017, Having Contracted in Second-Quarter 2017
• July Existing-Home Sales Were Down by 25.2% (-25.2%) and New-Home Sales Were Down by 58.9% (-58.9%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Parallel Monthly and Quarterly Declines Were Seen Recently in July Building Permits and Housing Starts, Respectively Also Down by 46.0% (-46.0%) and by 49.2% (-49.2%) from Pre-Recession Highs

No. 905: July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index August, 17th, 2017 • For the Second Time, Industrial Production Has Regained Its Pre-Recession Peak of December 2007, Now Up by 0.14%, but Still Down 1.07% (-1.07%) from Its November 2014 Two-Month Recovery Peak
• Once Again, the Production Recovery Reflected Tops in Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction, Which Are Vulnerable to Low Oil Prices
• In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector: A Record 115 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight
• July Manufacturing Was Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 6.04% (-6.04%)
• Non-Recovered Freight Growth Slowed Anew
• Headline July Retail Sales Surged but Were Not Credible
• Recession Signal Continued from Low Annual Real Retail Sales Growth
• Building Permits and Housing Starts Showed Deepening Contractions: Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 11.0% (-11.0%) in Second Quarter; Starts Fell by 3.4% (-3.4%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter; Both Series Trended Lower in Third Quarter, Based on July Detail
• Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.0% (-46.0%) for Building Permits, 49.2% (-49.2%) for Housing Starts and 53.0% (-53.0%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 33.6% (-33.6%)

No.904: Economic and Financial Market Review, July Consumer and Producer Price Indices August, 13th, 2017 • A L E R T
• U.S. Dollar and Equity Markets Face High Risks in the Near Future, with Impact of Deteriorating Domestic-Economic Activity Exacerbated by Domestic- and Global-Political Circumstances
• Residual Squirreling Instincts in Investors: 2017 Circumstances Are More Dangerous Than in 1987
• U.S. Dollar Has Turned Down Year-to-Year
• Continued Headline Economic Slowing and Contraction Ahead
• Physical Holdings of Gold and Silver Offer Store-of-Wealth Hedging, Liquidity, Safety
• July CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.11%, Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.73% (Was 1.63%), with
CPI-W at 1.64% (Was 1.50%) and ShadowStats at 9.4% (Was 9.3%)
• Softening Annual Consumer Inflation Appears to Have Troughed, Temporarily
• July 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Slowed to 1.90% from 1.99% in June

No. 903: Labor Conditions, Construction Spending, Trade Deficit, Money Supply M3 August, 6th, 2017 • Unemployment Remained Well Shy of Common Experience; U.3 at 4.3% in 2017 Is Not the Same as the 4.3% Circumstance in 2001
• July 2017 Unemployment Rates Effectively Were Unchanged: U.3 Eased to 4.35% (4.3497% Rounds to 4.3%) from 4.36% (Rounds to 4.4%), U.6 Eased to 8.57% from 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 22.1%
• Annual Payroll Growth Notched Lower to 1.50%, a Level Common at the Onset of Recessions
• Private Jobs Surveying Showed Renewed Collapse in July 2017
• Headline Annual Growth in Inflation-Adjusted, Real Take-Home Pay, Formally Per Capita Real Disposable Income, Revised Sharply Lower
• Real Annual Growth in June 2017 Construction Spending Turned Negative in a Manner Last Seen During the Housing Collapse of 2006
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Has Shifted to Down-Trending from Low-Level Stagnation
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened versus First-Quarter; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit Were Worst Since 2007
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.2% in July from 3.1% in June

No. 902-B: Second-Quarter GDP, 2017 Annual Benchmark Revisions July, 31st, 2017 • Positive Variance (Nonsense Reporting) in Revamped GDP Detail Intensified versus Softening, Non-Expanding Underlying Economic Reality
• Advance Estimate of Second-Quarter 2017 Real GDP Came in at a Near-Consensus 2.57% versus a Revised First-Quarter 1.24% (Previously 1.42%)
• Despite Rapidly-Faltering Activity in Key Underlying Economic Series, Second-Quarter GDP Gained both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
• With Headline Real GDP Growth Approaching, but Still Below Historical Averages, Slowing Quarterly Inflation and Relatively Stronger Inventory Changes More than Accounted for the Increase in Real Second-Quarter Growth
• Benchmark Revisions Lowered 2016 Annual Real Growth to Its Lowest Reading Since the 2009 Depths of the Recession
• With Advance Second-Quarter Activity Yet to Be Reported, Real First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised Lower to 0.94% (Previously 1.07%)
• The Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Revised Higher to 2.23% (Previously 1.01%) in the First-Quarter, Thanks to Massive Downside Revisions to Second-, Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2016
• Better-Quality Series Continue Showing Protracted-Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs, No Economic Expansion

No. 902-A: First-Estimate Second-Quarter GDP, 2017 Annual Benchmark Revisions July, 28th, 2017 • Nonsense GDP Reporting Intensified
• “Advance” Estimate of Second-Quarter 2017 Real GDP Came in at a Near-Consensus 2.57% versus a Downwardly-Revised 1.24% First-Quarter Estimate
• Annual Benchmark Revisions Were Minimal in Aggregate, Showing Weaker GDP Growth in 2016 and Somewhat Stronger Growth in 2014 into 2015
• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross National Product (GNP) Growth Rates Also Slowed in 2016 Revisions

No. 901: June New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Freight Index July, 27th, 2017 • Amidst a Faltering Economy, Political Discord Perils the Dollar and Intensifies Risk of Major Market Turmoil
• Freight Index Continued in Low-Level Non-Expansion, Down 11.7% (-11.7%) from Its Pre-Recession Peak
• June Gain in and May Upside Revisions to New Orders Reflected Surges in the Irregularly-Unstable Monthly Reporting of Commercial Aircraft Orders, Which Were Up by 131.2% in June and Revised Higher by 11.7% in May
• 6.5% Gain in June New Orders Was Just 0.2%, Net of Commercial Aircraft
• Net of Commercial Aircraft and Inflation, Orders Were Down 10.0% (-10.0%) from Their Pre-Recession Peak
• Consumer Related: Motor Vehicle Orders and Shipments Declined in June
• Decimated Second-Quarter 2017 Home Sales and Related Construction: Quarterly Contractions in New-Home Sales (-12.3%), Existing-Home Sales (-3.7%), Building Permits (-13.0%), Housing Starts (-21.9%), Single-Unit (-7.0%), Multiple-Unit (-47.3%)
• Monthly Existing-Home Sales Declined in June, Small Gain in New-Home Sales Was Unchanged Net of Revisions
• June Existing-Home Sales Were Down by 24.1% (-24.1%) and New-Home Sales Were Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

No. 900: June Housing Starts, Preview of GDP Benchmarking July, 19th, 2017 • GDP Benchmark Revisions Should Weaken Headline Activity in 2014 and 2015
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Continues to Darken
• Despite a Statistically-Insignificant Monthly Rebound in June Housing Starts, Activity Plunged at an Increasingly-Rapid Pace of Quarterly Downturn
• Building Permits and Housing Starts Both Showed Deepening Quarterly Losses: Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 13.0% (-13.0%) in Second Quarter; Starts Fell by 3.3% (-3.3%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter
• Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.5% (-46.5%) for Housing Starts and by 44.6% (-44.6%) for Building Permits

No. 899: June Industrial Production, Retail Sales, CPI and PPI July, 17th, 2017 • Weaker-Than-Expected Headline Reporting Continued, as Negative Revisions Plagued Headline Production and Retail Sales Data
• Downside Implications for Both First- and Second-Quarter 2017 GDP
• Above-or-At-Consensus Headline June Production and Manufacturing Gains Reflected No More than Heavy Downside Revisions to Prior Months
• No End in Sight: Record 114 Months of Continued Non-Expansion in Manufacturing, With June Production and Manufacturing Still Down Respectively by 0.2% (-0.2%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs
• Retail Sales Contractions Continued, Despite Upside Growth Distortions from Inconsistent Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions; Net of the Gimmicks, the Headline June Sales Drop of 0.2% (-0.2%) Would Have Been 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Recession Signal Intensified Sharply; Market Economic Sentiment Appears to Be Shifting to the Downside, as Reflected in a Softening Dollar
• Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth
• Headline June CPI-U Inflation Unchanged at Down 0.02% (-0.02%), Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.63% (Was 1.87%), with
CPI-W at 1.50% (Was 1.78%) and ShadowStats at 9.3% (Was 9.6%)
• Softening Consumer Inflation Likely Hit a Trough in June
• June 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Declined to 1.99% (Was 2.36%)

No. 898: June Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3 July, 7th, 2017 • June Payroll Gain Was on Top of Upside Revisions
• Nonetheless, Unadjusted Annual Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession
• Headline Unemployment Remained Well Short of Common Experience
• June 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, U.6 Rose to 8.6% from 8.4% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.1% from 22.0%
• Watch Out for Reporting Surprises in Week Ahead
• June Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Declined to 3.1% from 3.5% in May •

No. 897: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Freight Index, Private Jobs Surveying July, 6th, 2017 • Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007
• June Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, Albeit at a Narrowed Pace Still Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• In Ongoing, Low-Level Stagnation, May Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 12.1% (-12.1%)
• Construction Spending Benchmark Revisions Confirmed Likely Downside-Benchmark Revisions Pending for the GDP
• Recent Patterns of Real Annual Growth in Construction Spending Revised from Uptrending to Sharply Downtrending, Consistent with a Recession
• Real Construction Spending Remained 20.7% (-20.7%) Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

No. 896: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Third Estimate June, 29th, 2017 • Continued Nonsense in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Reporting
• First-Quarter 2017 Nominal GDP Did Not Revise; Upside Revision in Real GDP Growth, from 1.15% to 1.42%, All Was in Reduced Inflation, Which Revised from 2.22% to 1.94%
• Real First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Growth, Theoretical Equivalent of the GDP, Revised Higher to 1.01%, but Still Was Down from Third-Quarter 2016 GDI by 0.19% (-0.19%)
• Revised First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), Broader than the GDP, Revised Lower in Nominal Terms but was Boosted to Revised 1.07% Real Growth by the Reduced Inflation
• Headline First-Quarter Details Still Indicative of a Stalling Economy
• Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion

No. 895: May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods June, 26th, 2017 • May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods Continued the General Pattern of Weaker-than-Expected Headline Economic Reporting
• Despite Downside Revisions to April, May Orders Declined for the Second Month, Both Before and After Inflation and/or Commercial Aircraft Orders
• As Consensus and the Fed Forecasts Shift Towards a Contracting U.S. Economy, Financial Markets Should Face Increasing Instabilities and Turmoil

No. 894: Economic- and Financial-System Conditions, May Household Income and Home Sales June, 23rd, 2017 • U.S. Economy Is Turning Down Anew, Threatening Banking-System Stability, Likely to Roil FOMC Policy, with Sharply-Negative Impact on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Equities, Spiking Inflation and Prices of Gold and Silver
• Major Market Turmoil Increasingly Likely in the Near Future
• Headline Economic Data in the Month Ahead Could Signal a Day-of-Reckoning at Hand
• Despite a Monthly Boost from Falling Gasoline Prices, May 2017 Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in May, Yet Both Series Were on Track for Second-Quarter Contractions
• May Existing-Homes Sales Down by 22.7% (-22.7%) and New-Home Sales Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

No. 893: May 2017 Housing Starts, Consumer Liquidity Update June, 16th, 2017 • May Housing Starts Plummeted on Top of Downside Revisions, Confounding Happy, Rebounding Consensus Expectations
• Stagnant to Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 52.0% (-52.0%) for Housing Starts and by 48.4% (-48.4%) for Building Permits
• Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth

No. 892: May Industrial Production, FOMC, U.S. Dollar and Gold June, 15th, 2017 • FOMC Faces Deteriorating Economic Conditions and Renewed Solvency Stresses in the Banking System
• June 14th Rate Hike Could Be the Last One for This Cycle
• U.S. Dollar Near a Peak? Gold Price Near a Trough?
• Headline Unchanged Production and Drop of 0.4% (-0.4%) in Manufacturing Were Boosted by Downside Revisions to March and April Activity
• Still No Full Economic Recovery as of May 2017 Reporting, with Production and Manufacturing Down Respectively by Deepened, Net
Contractions of 0.3% (-0.3%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs
• With No End in Sight, 113 Months of Continual Non-Expanding Manufacturing Is the Longest Period of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of U.S. Industrial Production, Topping the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression

May Retail Sales, Earnings, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, FOMC June, 14th, 2017 • With Increasingly Adverse Economic Data, FOMC Hiked the Fed Funds Rate
• May 2017 Nominal Retail Sales Fell by 0.3% (-0.3%), Despite a Gimmicked Monthly Sales Boost of 0.2% from Seasonal-Factor Distortions
• Headline Real May Retail Sales Sank by 0.13% (-0.13%), Despite a CPI Contraction of 0.13% (-0.13%)
• Recession Signal Intensified Sharply
• First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Despite No Growth in May, Weak Inflation Boosted Second-Quarter Real Earnings Trend
• Headline CPI-U Inflation Declined by 0.13% (-0.13%) in May 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.87% (Was 2.20%), with CPI-W at 1.78% (Was 2.14%) and ShadowStats at 9.6% (was 10.0%)
• May 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI at 2.36%, Minimally Backed Off a 62-Month High of 2.45% in April
• Annual PPI Inflation Boosted by Poor-Quality Theoretical Constructs, Such as Declining Gasoline Prices Spiking Services Inflation

No. 890: May Employment, April Construction Spending and Trade Deficit Revisions June, 5th, 2017 • Trade-Deficit Benchmarking Showed Deeper Deficits 2014-to-Date, with Implications for Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007
• In Uptrending, Low-Level Stagnation, April Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak by 12.6% (-12.6%)
• May Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• Monthly Payroll Gains Slowed on Top of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions
• Slowing, Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession
• May 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, U.6 Fell to 8.4% from 8.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 22.0% from 22.1%
• Labor Numbers Out of Balance: April 2017 Headline Unemployment of 4.3%, Lowest Since March 2001, Coincided with Weakening, Near-Historic Lows in the Participation Rate (Labor Force/Population) and Employment-to-Population Ratio
• In Contrast, March 2001 Headline Unemployment of 4.3% Coincided with Participation Rates and Employment-Population Ratios Just Off Historic Highs
• Real Construction Spending Remained 21.3% (-21.3%) Short of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.6% in May, versus 3.4% in April

No. 889: GDP Revision, April Durable Goods and Home Sales May, 26th, 2017 • Nonsense in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Reporting
• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) - Theoretical Equivalent of the GDP - Gained 0.85% in First-Quarter 2017, After a Revised Fourth-Quarter Contraction of 1.38% (-1.38%), Previously up by 1.00%
• First-Quarter 2017 GDI Activity Still Is Below Third-Quarter 2016 • Headline First-Quarter Details Otherwise Showed Stalling Economy, with GDP at 1.15%, GDI at 0.85%, GNP at 0.99%
• Better-Quality Series Still Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion
• In the Context of Downside Benchmark Revisions, Durable Goods Orders Declined Month-to-Month, Before and After Inflation and/or Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Declined in March, In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation
• Real Median Monthly Household Income Has Shown No Net Gain Since February 2002

SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 888: Political Stability versus the Economy and Financial Markets, Durable Goods Benchmarking, Consumer Liquidity May, 22nd, 2017 • U.S. Political-System Instability Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Tranquility
• Downwardly-Benchmarked Durable Goods Orders and Shipments of Manufacturers Showed Weaker Historical Economic Activity and Potential Downside GDP Revisions
• Heavily-Stressed Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continue to Prevent Sustainable Economic Growth

No. 887: April Industrial Production and Housing Starts May, 18th, 2017 • April Industrial Production Showed Solid Monthly Gains, Moving Off Bottom
• That Said, 112 Months of Continuing Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Worst String of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of Industrial Production
• It Tops the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment, and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression
• Still No Recovery: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.2% (-0.2%), Manufacturing Down by 5.6% (-5.6%) and Housing Starts Down by 48.4% (-48.4%)
• Annual Revisions to Housing Starts Pushed the Series into a Downtrend, Reflecting a Near-Term Hit to Multiple-Unit Starts
• 2016 Durable Goods Orders Just Took a 2.8% (-2.8%) Benchmarking Hit

No. 886: Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Consumer and Producer Prices May, 16th, 2017 • Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Has Resettled at Recession-Signal Level
• First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; April Detail Was Mixed; Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continued to Intensify
• Headline CPI-U Inflation Rose by 0.17% in April 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.20% (Was 2.38%), with CPI-W at 2.14% (Was 2.35%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (was 10.1%)
• April Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 62-Month High of 2.45%
• Moving Off Bottom, April Industrial Production Showed Solid Gains, but Production and Manufacturing Still Remained Below Their Pre-Recession Highs
• Declining April Housing Starts Held Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 48.4% (-48.4%); First-Quarter Starts Revised to a Quarterly Contraction, Amidst Annual Revisions

No. 885: Numbers Games that Statistical Bureaus, Central Banks and Politicians Play May, 8th, 2017 • April 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3
• Headline Employment/Unemployment Numbers Were Too Good
• Jobs Gain Boosted by Heavily-Distorted Seasonals and Unusually-Large Upside Biases
• Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Dropped to a 68-Month Low
• Last Time Annual Payroll Growth Declined to that Level, the Economy Had Started Its Collapse into the 2007 Recession
• Household Survey Showed Shift from Part-Time to Full-Time Employment
• April Unemployment of 4.40% Was a 1-in-1,000 Shot; Could It Have Been Targeted?
• That Said, April Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.4% from 4.5%, U.6 Fell to 8.6% from 8.9% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.1% from 22.5%
• Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since November 2007 and for ShadowStats since October 2010
• Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rebounded to 3.3% in April, Versus 3.1% February and March, Otherwise at a 39-Month Low

No. 884: March 2017 Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Real-World Employment May, 4th, 2017 • April 2017 Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrowed Minimally versus What Had Been on Track for a Minimal Widening
• Despite a Decline in March, First-Quarter Construction Spending Surged with Massive, Upside Monthly Revisions to January and February Activity
• Real Construction Spending Remained 21.1% (-21.1%) Shy of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

No. 883: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Consumer Liquidity April, 29th, 2017 • Weaker-than-Expected First-Quarter GDP Real Growth of 0.69% Was Suggestive of Stalling Economic Activity
• Headline Growth Likely Faces Downside Revisions in the Next Two Months
• Final Sales (GDP Net of Inventory Change) Rose to 1.62% from 1.07%
• Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion
• First-Quarter 2017 Velocity of Money Rose Minimally for M3, Declined for M1 and M2
• Renewed Stresses on Consumer Liquidity

No. 882: March Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales, Retail Sales Annual Revisions April, 27th, 2017 • Benchmarked Retail Sales Revised Higher with 2015 Survey Details, but Subsequent Annual Growth Revised Sharply Lower, to Date, Generating a New, Traditional Signal for Recession
• Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 0.7% in March 2017 Durable Goods Orders Was 0.1%; Real Activity Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in March, In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation
• Despite Big Boost from Headline Drop in March CPI, March Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged, Still Holding Below January 2000 and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses

No. 881 March Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Freight Index, Economic Review April, 19th, 2017 • Broad Outlook Continues for Economic Stagnation and an Intensifying Downturn
• Unusual Weather Patterns Boosted March Utility Usage by a Record 8.6%; Otherwise, the 0.5% Production Gain Was a Contraction of 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Dominant Manufacturing Sector Dropped by 0.4% (-0.4%) on Top of Downside Revisions to January and February (Automobile Manufacturing Fell)
• Mining Sector Rose by 0.1%, Reflecting Soaring Gold Mining and Oil Production, Largely Offset by Plunging Coal Mining
• Still No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 1.2% (-1.2%), Manufacturing Down by 6.4% (-6.4%) and Housing Starts Down by 46.5% (-46.5%)
• Residential Construction Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• Freight Index Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation

No. 880 : March CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Consumer Update April, 15th, 2017 • Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances Have Begun to Unfold, Threatening FOMC Hopes for Normalizing Monetary Policy
• Amidst Mounting Income and Credit Stresses on Consumers, Headline Retail Sales Suffered Major, Near-Term Downside Revisions; Recent Auto Sales Were Not As Strong as Advertised
• First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined Year-to-Year, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions, Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012
• Real Growth in Consumer Credit Outstanding Has Faltered in a Manner Also Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012
• Headline CPI-U Inflation Fell by 0.29% (-0.29%) in March, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.38% (Was 2.74%), with CPI-W at 2.35% (Was 2.82%) and ShadowStats at 10.1% (was 10.5%)
• March Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 60-Month High of 2.28%

No. 879: March Employment and Unemployment, Help-Wanted Advertising, Money Supply M3 April, 7th, 2017 • FOMC-Rattling ‘Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances’ Loom
• March 2017 Real-World Employment Prospects Continued to Plunge at an Annual Pace of Decline Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse
• Soft Payroll Jobs Gain of 98,000 in March Was Not Statistically Significant
• Declining Monthly Unemployment Rates Simply Were Not Comparable
• That Said, March Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.5% from 4.7%, U.6 Fell to 8.9% from 9.2% and ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.5% from 22.7%
• Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since December 2008 and for ShadowStats since April 2012
• Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 57-Month Low in March, Real Growth Declined to a Level Not Seen Since Depths of the Economic Collapse

No. 878: February Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Updated Consumer Liquidity April, 4th, 2017 • Sharp Narrowing in February 2017 Trade Deficit Reflected Plunging Imports of Consumer Goods, Such as Autos and Cell Phones
• Declining Consumer Demand and/or a One-Time Reporting Aberration?
• First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Is on Track for Worst Deficit Since Third-Quarter 2007
• Despite a Nominal 0.8% Monthly Gain in February Construction Spending, Inflation-Adjusted Activity Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Headed for First-Quarter 2017 Quarterly and Annual Contractions
• Consumers Face Continuing Income and Credit Stresses, Amidst Mixed Optimism

No. 877: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision April, 2nd, 2017 • Industrial Production Just Took a Hit with Its Benchmark Revisions, Given Higher-Quality, Weaker Historical Data from 2015
• Double-Dip Recession in Production Now Steeper than Previously Indicated
• Two or More Consecutive Quarters of Annual Decline in Production Are Unprecedented Outside of Formally-Recognized Recessions; There Were Five, Now There Are Seven Consecutive Quarters in Place
• Gold and Silver Mining Activity Revised Sharply Higher
• Negative Indications for Pending Benchmark Revisions to Retail Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the GDP
• Broad Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Economic Activity
• Issues Foreshadow FOMC Problems, a Weaker Dollar and Stronger Gold

No. 876: GDP Revision and the Business Cycle, February Household Income March, 30th, 2017 • Details of Economic Depression versus Recession, Recovery and Expansion
• No Other Major Economic Series Comes Within Three Years of the Headline Brevity of the GDP Collapse into 2009 and Recovery into 2011, or Comes Close to Matching the Subsequent 12.2% GDP Expansion
• Better-Quality Series Show Continued, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion
• Annualized Fourth-Quarter Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product Revised to 2.08% from 1.86%
• Fourth-Quarter Final Sales Growth (GDP net of Inventory Change) Fell to 1.07% versus 3.02% in Third-Quarter 2016
• Initial Reporting of Fourth-Quarter Gross Domestic Income at 1.00%, Gross National Product at 2.88%
• 2016 Annual GDP Growth Still Was Weakest Since the Economic Collapse, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment
• Broad Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Activity and Economic Disruption
• February Real Median Household Income Increased, Still Holding Below its Pre-Recession High and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses

No. 875: Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Freight Index, Business Cycle March, 24th, 2017 • Details of Economic Depression versus Recession, Recovery and Expansion
• Amidst Signals of Renewed Downturn, the Broad Business Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Activity and Economic Disruption
• Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 1.7% in February Durable Goods Orders Was a Monthly Contraction of 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Freight Index Annual Growth Moved Higher for Third Straight Month, Still Holding in a Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation
• Suggestive of Continuing Financial-System Liquidity Stresses, Rising Portions of Existing-Home Sales Were in Foreclosure and/or Were All Cash Sales
• Mixed Monthly Activity in February New- and Existing-Home Sales Continued in the Context of Low-Level Non-Recovery

No. 874: February Industrial Production, Updated Economic Review March, 17th, 2017 • Industrial Production May Be Bottoming, Yet, There Are New Signals of Intensifying Economic Risk
• Production Was Flat in February, Minimally Positive Year-to-Year, with Gains in Manufacturing and Mining Offset by Weather-Distorted Utilities
• No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-2007 Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.94% (-0.94%), Manufacturing Down by 4.97% (-4.97%)
• Major Downside Revisions to Production Activity of Recent Years Likely Loom with the March 31st Annual Benchmarking Going Back to 1972
• General Outlook Remains in Place for Continuing Near-Term Economic Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

No. 873: February New Residential Construction, FOMC Policy March, 16th, 2017 • FOMC Focus Remains Banking-System Solvency; Economic Activity and Inflation Are Secondary Concerns, Other than for Banking-System Impact
• Dollar Selling and Gold Buying Suggest Markets Are Sensing Trouble
• Housing Starts Hit a Post-World War II Low in 2009; Yet, February 2017 Activity Still Has Not Recovered the Pre-Recession Peak Level of Any Post-World War II Downturn
• February Housing Starts Six-Month Moving Average Hit Its Highest Level Since the 2009 Economic Trough, Activity Last Seen in 1995, but It Still Is 44% (-44%) Shy of the Pre-2007 Recession Peak Level
• Headline Monthly February Housing Starts and Building Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by
43% (-43%) and 46% (-46%) from Their Pre-Recession Highs

No. 872: February PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and Earnings and the FOMC March, 15th, 2017 • FOMC Fiddles with Boosting Interest Rates, While Annual Real M3 Growth Just Plunged to a New Signal for a Major Economic Downturn
• Annual Contraction in First-Quarter Real Earnings Is a Virtual Certainty; Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions Also Are in Play; Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012
• February Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.08% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.04% (-0.04%) for the Month
• Headline Annual Inflation Surge Has Been Due to Energy-Price Distortions, Not to an Overheating Economy
• February 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.12%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 60-Month High of 2.74%, with
CPI-W at 2.82% and ShadowStats at 10.5%
• February Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 59-Month High of 2.19%

No. 871: February Labor Conditions, Help Wanted Online, Money Supply M3, Consumer Liquidity March, 10th, 2017 • Real World Employment Prospects Deteriorated in February 2017, Plunging at an Annual Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse into 2009
• Nonetheless, FOMC Hawks Got Their Strong Headline Jobs Report
• Headline Employment and Unemployment Remained Nonsensical and Generally Not Comparable Month-to-Month or Otherwise
• Payroll Employment, Which Gained 235,000 Jobs in February, Counts Each Part-Time Job as an Employed Individual
• Household Survey Employment Counts Each Individual Only Once; Multiple Job Holders Gained 260,000 in February
• February Unemployment Rates Dropped: U.3 Declined to 4.7% from 4.8%, U.6 Fell to 9.2% from 9.4%, ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.7% from 22.9%
• February Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 55-Month Low, Closing in on a Formal Recession Signal

No. 870: January Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Household Income, Pending FOMC March, 7th, 2017 • Beware the Ides of March!
• FOMC Targeting Growth-Killing Rate Hikes in an Economy that Is Foundering, Not Overheating?
• January Real Median Household Income Continued to Falter, Down Year-to-Year for the Second Straight Month
• First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007, An Early Negative for the GDP
• If the Current Trend in Trade Is Not Altered, Third-Quarter 2017 Real Deficit Would Be Worst Ever
• Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Down for the Month and Year, Amidst Upside Revisions and Rising Inflation, Still Shy of Its Pre-Recession High by 22% (-22%)

No. 869: Second Estimate of Fourth-Quarter GDP, Revamping Government Statistics February, 28th, 2017 • New Administration Needs to Overhaul Economic Reporting • How Can Headline Real GDP Be Up 12.1% from Its Pre-Recession High, While Industrial Production Is Down 1.1% (-1.1%), and Manufacturing Is Down 5.7% (-5.7%)?
• How Can GDP Be in Its 22nd Quarter of Expansion, When Industrial Production is in Its 36th Quarter of Non-Expansion, Rivaling Its Great Depression Run of 37 Quarters?
• Underlying Economic/Financial Pain on Main Street U.S.A. Led to the Change of Government
• Political Circumstances May be Disquieting to Some, but Underlying Economic Dislocations Have to be Addressed
• Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.88% (Previously 1.90%) Avoided Notching Down to a Rounded 1.8%, Thanks to Lowered Inflation
• 2016 Annual GDP Growth Still Was Weakest Since the Economic Collapse, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment
• Better-Quality Indicators of Broad Business Activity Continue to Show the Economy Never Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009

No. 868: January 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods February, 27th, 2017 • Aggregate, Inflation-Adjusted Real New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Month-to-Month but Fell Year-to-Year
• Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Real Orders Were Unchanged for the Month but Rose Year-to-Year
• Real Orders Confirmed Ongoing Patterns of Low-Level Economic Stagnation

No. 867: Economic Update, January Freight Index, New- and Existing-Home Sales February, 24th, 2017 • Mixed Signals on Economic Bottoming
• Is a Second Bottom at Hand for the Economic Collapse into 2009?
• Freight Index Annual Growth Moved Higher for Second Straight Month
• Broad Economic Activity Remains in Low-Level Stagnation, Never Having Recovered Its Pre-Collapse Peak
• In Ongoing Double-Dip Downturn, Industrial Production Is Two Months Shy of Matching the 113-Month Duration of the Double-Dip Great Depression
• January New- and Existing-Home Sales Monthly and Annual Gains
Continued in the Context of Low-Level, Broad Stagnation

No. 866: January 2017 CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Housing Starts February, 16th, 2017 • Inflation Surge Was Due to Gasoline Prices, Not to an Overheating Economy; Beware the Fed!
• January 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.55%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 58-Month High of 2.50%, with CPI-W at 2.51% and ShadowStats at 10.3%
• January Monthly PPI Goods Inflation Up by 1.01%, Construction Up by 0.26%, Services Up by 0.27%, Total PPI Up by 0.63%;
Total Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation at a 29-Month High of 1.73%
• Inflation-Adjusted Annual M3 Growth Is Signaling an Economic Downturn
• January Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.36% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.19% (-0.19%) for the Month
• Real Earnings Contracted Quarterly in Fourth-Quarter 2016, On Track for First-Quarter 2017 Annual and Quarterly Declines
• January Production Was Down by 1.11% (-1.11%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Down by 2.00% (-2.00%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery; Manufacturing Was Down 5.69% (-5.69%) from a Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
• Despite Continuing Nonsense Volatility in Monthly Data and Revisions, Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by 45% (-45%) and 43% (-43%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Broad Outlook of Continuing Economic Stagnation/Renewed Downturn Is Unchanged

No. 865: December 2016 Trade Deficit February, 8th, 2017 • Quarterly and Annual Real Merchandise-Trade Deficits Were Worst Since 2007
• Implied Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• U.S. Trade Swings to a 2016 Surplus with OPEC, Given Shifting Oil Prices and Production

No. 864: Labor Detail and Revisions, Construction Spending and Consumer Liquidity February, 8th, 2017 • Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2016 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficits Were Worst in 10 Years, with Implied Negative GDP Revisions
• Downside Payroll Benchmark Revisions to First-Half 2016 were Accompanied by an Offsetting Growth Accelerator Added to Second-Half 2016
• Upside Annual Bias Factors Were Boosted to Roughly 993,000 Jobs from 841,000, Despite Indicated Overstatement of 2016 Payroll Growth
• Current Employment Gains Exaggerated by Highly Questionable Revisions and Revamped Seasonal-Adjustment Modeling (Still Not Comparable Month-to-Month)
• Annual Growth Rates in January Payrolls and Full-Time Employment Still at Multi-Year Lows; Payroll Growth Weakest Since Exiting the Recession
• January 2017 Unemployment Rates Rose: U.3 Rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, U.6 Rose to 9.4% from 9.2%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Rose to 22.9% from 22.7%
• Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Still 23% (-23%) Shy of Its Pre-Recession High
• December Real Median Household Income Took a Statistically-Significant Hit
• January 2017 M3 Annual Growth at 3.6%, in Context of a Major Fed Benchmarking Reducing M3 and M2 Annual Growth Rates, Reflecting an Intensifying Flight to Cash into M1

No. 863: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales January, 27th, 2017 • Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment, 2016 Annual GDP Growth Was Weakest Since the Economic Collapse
• Softer-than-Expected Headline 4q2016 GDP Real Growth of 1.88%, Suggested Greater Weakness and Downside Revisions in February and March Reporting
• Final Sales (GDP Net of Inventory Change) Slowed to 0.88% from 3.02%
• Better-Quality Indicators of Broad Business Activity Still Show the Economy Never Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009 and Is Turning Down Anew
• Fourth-Quarter Velocity of Money Rose for M3, Declined for M1 and M2
• Real New Orders for Durable Goods (Total and Ex-Commercial Aircraft) Declined in December, but Rose Quarter-to-Quarter, Still in Low-Level, Stagnating Non-Recovery
• December New- and Existing-Home Sales Contracted Month-to-Month, Smoothed Activity Continued in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• Proportion of Existing Sales in Distress Increased for the Third Month

No. 862: Industrial Production, CPI, Real Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index January, 20th, 2017 • Real Earnings Contracted in Fourth-Quarter 2016
• Fourth-Quarter Production Fell Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Protracted Patterns Never Seen Outside of a Recession in 99-Year History of the Series
• Despite a Large Boost from an Irregular, Weather-Driven Surge in Utilities, December Production Still Was Down by 1.10% (-1.10%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Down by 1.98% (-1.98%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery
• December Manufacturing Remained Down by 6.18% (-6.18%) from Its Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
• CASS Freight Index Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• December 2016 Monthly Inflation Firmed by 0.3%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 30-Month High of 2.1%, with
CPI-W at 2.0% and ShadowStats at 9.8%
• December Nominal Retail Sales Gains of 0.63% Month-to-Month and 4.13% Year-to-Year, Turned to 0.34% and a Recessionary 1.99% on an Inflation-Adjusted, Real-Growth Basis
• Net of Year-End, Incentive-Spiked Automobile Sales, Real Holiday-Season Shopping Turned Down in November and December
• Despite Continuing Nonsense Volatility in Monthly Data, Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Activity Down Respectively by 46% (-46%) and 47% (-47%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

No. 861: Nominal Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), GAAP-Deficit January, 13th, 2017 • The 2016 Headline Cash-Based Federal Deficit was $0.587 Trillion; Using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the Deficit Was $1.048 Trillion
• Including the Net Present Value of Unfunded Liabilities, the GAAP-Based Federal Deficit in 2016 Appears to Have Widened by About $7 Trillion versus 2015
• Nominal December Retail Sales Gain of 0.6% Was Not Good News; Incentive-Boosted Auto Sales Borrowed Activity from First-Quarter 2017; Holiday Season Real Sales Growth Likely Did Not Break-Even
• Annual December 2016 PPI Energy Inflation Rose Meaningfully for the First Time Since the Collapsing Oil Prices of 2014
• Monthly December PPI Inflation: Goods Up 0.74%, Construction Down 0.09% (-0.09%), Services Up 0.09%, Total Up by 0.27%

No. 860: December Labor Conditions, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January, 10th, 2017 • November Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Setting the Stage for the Worst Quarterly Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Since 2007, and Taking a Large Chunk Out of Fourth-Quarter 2016 GDP Growth
• Nonsense Employment Detail: Payrolls Rose 156,000 in December, Gained 703,000 in Last Four Months, but
Full-Time Employment Rose 35,000 in December, Flat (-8,000) in Last Four Months
• Annual Growth Rates in December Payroll and Full-Time Employment Fell Sharply, to Multi-Year Lows; Nonfarm Payrolls at Weakest Growth Since Exiting the Recession
• Household Survey Revisions Were Minimal for Widely Followed Details, yet January Unemployment Data Face a Series Break, while the Payroll Survey Faces Net Downside Benchmark Revisions Next Month
• December 2016 Unemployment Rates Mixed: U.3 Rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, U.6 Eased to 9.2% from 9.3%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Eased to 22.7% from 22.8%
• Despite a Monthly Nominal Gain and Downside Prior-Period Revisions, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 22% (-22%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession High
• December M3 Annual Growth Notched Higher to 3.9% Versus an Upwardly Revised 3.8% in November; Still Down from 4.5% in June

No. 859 - SPECIAL COMMENTARY, YEAR-END, YEAR-AHEAD Economic and Financial Review and Preview January, 8th, 2017 • Consumer Expectations Soar Along with Anticipated Changes to that Former Malarial Swamp on the Potomac
• New Fiscal Stimuli Could Boost Economic Activity by Early-2018
• Yet, the Near-Term Economy Continues in Renewed Tumble, Never Having Recovered Fully from Its Collapse into 2009
• Intensifying, Headline Downturn Threatens Resurgent Fed Pressures for Expanded Quantitative Easing and Intensified Dollar Debasement
• Budget-Deficit Issues Should Refocus Global Currency Markets on Long-Range U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns
• Sovereign-Solvency and Quantitative-Easing Issues Threaten to Crash the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Roiling Financial Markets by Mid-2017
• Long-Range Economic and Financial-Market Health and Stability Depend on Resolving Both the Misdirected Policies of the Federal Reserve and the Solvency Concerns of the Global Markets
• Given Issues of Fed Independence and Ingrained, Systemic Intransigence, Early Resolutions of the Fed and Solvency Problems Are Not Likely
• Accordingly, Massive U.S. Dollar Selling, Debasement and Hyperinflation Remain the Primary Risks to Domestic Economic and Political Stability; Precious Metals Remain the Proven and Established Primary Inflation Hedge

No. 858: Economic and Financial Review and Preview December, 30th, 2016 • Consumer Expectations Soar Along with Anticipated Changes from the Incoming Administration
• Yet, the Near-Term Domestic Economic Outlook Remains Bleak, Fueling New Fiscal Stimuli but Frustrating Fed Policies
• With Resurgent Pressures on the Fed to Expand Quantitative Easing, and with Global Markets Refocusing on Long-Range U.S. Treasury Solvency Issues, Massive Selling of the U.S. Dollar and Stocks Is Highly Likely by Mid-2017
• Serious Inflation Problems Should Accompany the Dollar Selling; Precious Metals Remain the Primary Inflation Hedge
• Since the Onset of the Millennium, Gold Still Has Outperformed Stocks, Including Reinvested Dividends, Despite Recent Heavy Gold Selling and Stocks near All-Time Highs

No. 857: November Durable Goods, New- and Existing Home Sales, Revised Third-Quarter GDP December, 23rd, 2016 • Decline in November Durable Goods Orders Was Dominated by a 74% (-74%) Plunge in Irregular Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Orders Gained for the Month, but Smoothed Activity Showed Ongoing Recession
• Latest Revisions to Third-Quarter National Income Were Not Credible: Annualized Headline Growth of 3.5% (Was 3.2%) for GDP, 4.8% (Was 5.2%) for GDI and 3.4% (Was 3.1%) for GNP
• Better-Quality Indicators of Broad Business Activity Still Show the Economy Never Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009 and Is Turning Down Anew
• Home-Sales Activity Continued in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• Gain of 5.2% in November New-Home Sales Was No More than Statistical Noise, Still Down by 57% (-57%) from Pre-Recession High
• November Existing-Home Sales Still Down by 23% (-23%) from Pre-Recession Peak; 0.7% Monthly Gain Largely Was Due to Downside Revision in October
• Annual Existing-Sales Growth Heavily Skewed by Year-Ago Reporting Inconsistencies
• Proportion of Existing Sales in Foreclosure Rose for a Second Month

No. 856: November Housing Starts, Freight Index, Economic Outlook December, 16th, 2016 • November Freight Index Signaled Continued Weakening Economy and Non-Recovery
• Nonsensical Month-to-Month Volatility in Housing Starts Continued: September Fell 9.6% (-9.6%), October Gained 27.4%, November Fell 18.7% (-18.7%)
• Most-Extreme Reporting Instability Since the Depths of the 1980 Recession
• Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation; Activity Down Respectively by 52% (-52%) and 47% (-47%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Broad U.S. Economic Activity Has Continued to Falter

No. 855: November CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, FOMC and the U.S. Dollar and Gold December, 15th, 2016 • November 2016 Annual Inflation Firmed by Another 0.1%, with CPI-U at 1.7%, CPI-W at 1.5% and ShadowStats at 9.4%
• November Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Fell by 0.12% (-0.12%) in the Month, Year-to-Year Growth of 2.02% Generated an Intense Recession Signal
• Real Earnings Fell for Fourth Straight Month in November, On Track for a Fourth-Quarter Contraction
• FOMC Rate Hike and Prospective Further Rate Increases Face Massive Hurdles from Intensifying Economic Weakness that Will Stress Systemic Liquidity and Solvency
• U.S. Dollar Is Particularly Vulnerable Now to Unexpected Economic Deterioration
• Market Upheaval and Dollar Doom Remain Likely in 2017 Due to a Still-Dysfunctional and Deceptive Federal Reserve

No. 854: Industrial Production, Nominal Retail Sales, PPI, Consumer Liquidity, FOMC December, 14th, 2016 • Given Renewed Signals of a Faltering Economy, the FOMC Rate Hike Does Not Preclude Subsequent Expansion of Quantitative Easing
• Fourth-Quarter Production Appears Locked into Annual and Quarterly Contractions, Protracted Patterns Never Seen Outside of a Recession in 98-Year History of the Series
• Down by 0.44% (-0.44%) versus October, November Production Remained Down by 1.77% (-1.77%) from Its Pre-2007 Recession High, Down by 2.65% (-2.65%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery
• Down for the Month, November Manufacturing Remained Down by 6.21% (-6.21%) from Its Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
• Upturns in Oil and Gas Exploration Continued to Boost Mining Activity, Despite a Monthly Downturn in Coal Mining
• Nominal November Retail Sales Gain of 0.1% Was a Contraction of 0.2% (-0.2%) Net of Seasonal-Factor Gimmicks and a Downside Revision to October
• In an Unhappy Start to Holiday Season Sales, Headline November Retail Activity Most Likely Was Negative After Inflation Adjustment
• Monthly November PPI Inflation: Goods Up by 0.18%, Construction Up by 0.09%, Services Up by 0.54%, Total Was Up by 0.39%
• Consumer Liquidity Has Not Caught Up with Surging Post-Election Optimism

No. 853: October Trade Deficit, December FOMC Meeting December, 6th, 2016 • Re-Exploding Trade Deficit Suggested a Hit to Fourth-Quarter 2016 GDP
• November 2016 CPI-U Annual Inflation Could Break Above Near-Term Highs Seen in the Pre-Oil-Price-Collapse Environment of 2014
• Once Again, Market Expectations Are for a Looming Rate Hike
• Embroiled in Its Own Credibility Issues, FOMC Still Faces a Deteriorating Economy and Unstable Global Circumstances

No. 852: November Labor Conditions and Money Supply, October Construction Spending December, 2nd, 2016 • November Help-Wanted On-Line Advertising Fell Month-to-Month, and Declined Year-to-Year at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse into 2009
• Payrolls Rose by 178,000 in November and 142,000 in October, but Full-Time Employment Gained Just 9,000 in November, Having Declined by 103,000 (-103,000) in October
• Drop in Headline November Unemployment Rate Was Dominated by the Unemployed Leaving the Labor Force Faster than They Could Gain Jobs
• November 2016 Unemployment Rates Moved Lower: U.3 to 4.6% from 4.9%, U.6 to 9.3% from 9.5%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate to 22.8% from 22.9%
• Participation Rate Declined, with Employment-to-Population Ratio Unchanged
• Despite a Monthly Gain and Upside Prior-Period Revisions, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 23% (-23%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession High
• November M3 Annual Growth Notched Higher to 3.7% Versus an Upwardly Revised 3.6% in October; Still Down from 4.1% in September

No. 851: Third-Quarter GDP, Freight Index, Consumer Conditions, U.S. Solvency Issues November, 29th, 2016 • In Context of Pending Fiscal Stimulus, Long-Term U.S. Sovereign Solvency Issues Have to Be Addressed
• October Freight Index Continued in Low-Level Non-Recovery
• Post-Election Consumer Expectations Brightened Sharply, Although October Real, Median Household Income Continued to Stagnate
• Non-Credible and Unstable Third-Quarter Reporting Showed Growth of 3.2% for GDP, 5.2% for GDI and 3.1% for GNP
• Underlying Reality Remains Far from a Surging Economic Recovery
• Headline GDP Growth Remained Massively Inconsistent with Recession in Freight Traffic, Petroleum Usage, Corporate Revenues, Construction, Industrial Production and Broad Employment Indicators

No. 850: October Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales November, 23rd, 2016 • Gains in and Upside Revisions to October Durable Goods Data Reflected Surging, Irregular Commercial Aircraft Orders (up 94%) or Inflation (up 0.4%)
• Going into Fourth-Quarter 2016, Downwardly-Revised Real Durable Goods Orders, Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Contracted Year-to-Year and Quarter-to-Quarter
• That Signaled Continued, Broad Economic Downturn
• October Automobile Orders and Shipments Turned Down and Revised Lower in September
• Home-Sales Activity Continued in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• Monthly Decline in October New-Home Sales Was Muted by Prior-Period Downside Revisions, Still Down by 59% (-59%) from Pre-Recession High
• Strongest Since 2007, October Existing-Home Sales Still Were Down by 23% (-23%) from Pre-Recession Peak
• Proportions of All-Cash Sales and Sales in Foreclosure Increased in the Month

No. 849: October CPI, Housing Starts, Post-Election Markets, Economy and FOMC November, 20th, 2016 • October 2016 Annual Inflation Firmed by Another 0.1% to 0.2%, with CPI-U at 1.6%, CPI-W at 1.4% and ShadowStats at 9.3%
• Census Bureau Produced Nonsensical Housing and Retail Sales Gains
• 26% Monthly Surge in October Housing Starts Reflected Extreme Reporting Instability/Volatility Last Seen at Depths of 1980 Recession
• Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation; Activity Down Respectively by 42% (-42%) and 46% (-46%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Inflation-Adjusted Real Retail Sales Gained 0.47%, Bloated by and Against a Not-Credible 0.82% Monthly Surge in Nominal October Sales
• October Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month, Down in Six of Last Seven Months
• Post-Election Dollar Rally Began Before the First Voting
• Dollar Doom Is Likely in 2017 Due to a Dysfunctional and Deceptive Federal Reserve

No. 848: October Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) November, 16th, 2016 • Early Trend for Fourth-Quarter Industrial Production Suggested Renewed Quarterly Contraction and Fifth-Straight Quarter of Annual Contraction
• Outside of Formal Recessions, Two-or-More Consecutive Quarters of Annual Decline Remain Unprecedented in 98-Year History of the Production Series
• Little Changed versus September, October Production Remained Down by 1.38% (-1.38%) from Its Pre-2007 Recession High; Down by 2.27% (-2.27%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery
• With October Monthly Growth Boosted by Downside Third-Quarter Revisions, Manufacturing Remained Down by 6.19% (-6.19%) from Its Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
• Coal Mining Rebound and Bottoming Oil and Gas Exploration Continued to Boost Mining Activity
• Monthly October PPI Inflation: Goods Up by 0.37%, Construction Up by 0.70%, Services Down by 0.27% (-0.27%), Total Unchanged at 0.00%
• October 2016 Year-to-Year Energy Inflation Turned Positive for First Time Since 2014 Oil-Price Collapse

No. 847: October Nominal Retail Sales November, 15th, 2016 • Headline Nominal October 2016 Retail Sales Boomed On Top of Significant Upside Revisions to September and August
• Other Than a Spike from Inflation, Details Were Not Credible in the Context of Underlying Weak Consumer Conditions and Anecdotal Evidence
• Similar Surges in Recent Years Usually Have Been Followed by Downside Revisions or Offsetting Declines in Subsequent Reporting

No.846: General Comments, Election, Consumer Liquidity November, 11th, 2016 • Markets Have Responded Positively to the Trump Victory, Although Surging Early-November Consumer Sentiment Was Surveyed Pre-Election
• Election Polling Confirmed Continuing, Non-Recovering Economic Activity
• Fiscal Stimulus Usually Takes Nine-Plus Months to Kick In
• Difficulties Loom in Balancing Federal Fiscal Conditions
• Federal Reserve Remains Beset by Systemic Liquidity Crises
• Physical Gold Remains the Primary Hedge Against Still-Looming Dollar/Inflation Crises

No 845: October Labor, September Trade and Construction Spending, M3, Dollar and Gold November, 4th, 2016 • October Annual Payroll Growth Declined to a 42-Month Low
• Full-Time Employment Declined by 103,000 (-103,000) in October
• October 2016 Unemployment Rates Notched Lower: U.3 at 4.9%, U.6 at 9.5%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate at 22.9%
• Drop in Headline October Unemployment Rate Reflected Unemployed Leaving the Labor Force, Not Getting Jobs
• Participation Rate and Employment-to-Population Ratio Declined
• With Continuing Contractions in Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Activity, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 24% (-24%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession High
• Narrowing of Third-Quarter Trade Deficit Due to Short-Lived, Soybean-Export Surge
• Collapsing Annual M3 Growth Showed Increasing Flight to Liquidity for Big Money; Growth Soared in the M1 and M2 Subcomponents of M3

No. 844: Third-Quarter GDP, Consumer-Liquidity and Monetary-System Updates October, 29th, 2016 • Third-Quarter GDP Growth of 2.9% Was Not Credible
• Politically-Massaged Data Traditionally Have Negligible Impact on Voters
• Real Annual Growth of 2.3% in Third-Quarter Disposable Income Held Below 2.9%, Indicating Incumbent-Party Loss of the White House
• Underlying Economic Reality Remains Far from Recovery and Expansion
• Headline GDP Remained Massively Inconsistent with Recession Seen in Freight Traffic, Petroleum Usage, Corporate Revenues, Construction, Industrial Production, Broad Employment Indicators, Etc.
• Third-Quarter Velocity of Money Slowed Anew
• Monetary Base Tumbled to a Three-Year Low in a Record Year-to-Year Drop, Annual M3 Growth Turned Sharply Lower in October
• September Real Median Household Income Continued to Stagnate, While Consumer Attitudes Took a Beating in October

No. 843: Special Comments, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Homes Sales, Fed Shenanigans October, 27th, 2016 • Fedspeak Enters the Realm of the Ridiculous, Suggesting Healthy Payroll Growth at a Recessionary 50,000-to-100,000 Jobs per Month
• The Fed Moves to Redefine U.S. Economic Normalcy as Reflecting Non-Recovering, Stagnant Activity and
Large Numbers of Labor-Force Non-Participants
• An Extraordinarily Volatile and Uncertain Presidential Campaign May Be Constraining Near-Term Economic Activity
• Third-Quarter Durable Goods Orders Declined Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Both Before and After Adjustment for Inflation; Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Orders Gained
• Home Sales Activity Continued in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation
• September New-Home Sales Gained in the Month, Only Because of Massive Downside Revisions Back to June
• September Existing-Home Sales Gain Boosted by Downside August Revision

No. 842: September Residential Construction, Housing Starts October, 19th, 2016 • Housing Starts Turned Negative in Third-Quarter 2016, Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Amidst Collapsing Multiple-Unit Activity
• Both Starts and Permits Held in Smoothed, Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Still Shy of Respective Pre-Recession Highs by 54% and 46%
• Recent Headline Monthly Economic Reporting Has Pressured Third-Quarter GDP Growth Expectations to the Downside

No. 841: CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Freight Index, Election, FOMC, Dollar and Gold October, 18th, 2016 • Main Street U.S.A. Is Not Happy; That Is Bad News for Establishment Political Candidates and for the Financial Markets and the U.S. Dollar
• Social Security COLA Shenanigans at the BLS?
• Extraordinarily-Unusual Corrections to Unadjusted CPI Data Moved the Unrounded COLA Calculation from 0.351% to 0.348%; The Difference Was a 2017 COLA at 0.3%, Instead of 0.4%
• September 2016 Annual Inflation Firmed by 0.4% to 0.5%, with CPI-U at 1.5%, CPI-W at 1.2% and ShadowStats at 9.1%
• Versus a Nominal Monthly Rebound of 0.6% in September, Real Retail Sales Gained 0.3%, Failing to Recover July Levels, with a Continuing, Intense Low-Annual-Growth Recession Signal
• Down in September, Real Earnings Have Declined in Five of the Last Six Months
• September Freight Index Continued in Ongoing Economic Tumble

No. 840: September Industrial Production October, 17th, 2016 • Representing 65% of the GDP, Industrial Production Fell Year-to-Year for the Fourth-Straight Quarter
• Outside of Formal Recessions, Two-or-More Consecutive Quarters of Annual Decline are Unprecedented in the 98-Year History of the Production Series
• September Monthly Production Gains Reflected No More than Downside Revisions to August and Before
• Weaker than Initial August Reporting, September Production Was Down by 1.42% (-1.42%) from Its Pre-2007 Recession High; Down by 2.31% (-2.31%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery
• September Manufacturing Was Down 6.28% (-6.28%) from Its Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
• Domestic Oil and Gas Exploration Collapse Tentatively Appears to be Bottoming, in the Context of Bottoming of Oil Prices

No. 839: September Nominal Retail Sales, PPI, Liquidity, Presidential Election October, 14th, 2016 • Incumbent Party Has Lost the White House in Every Election Since 1932, When Annual Real Disposable Income Growth Has Been Below 2.9%
• Second-Quarter 2016 Real Disposable Income Growth Was 1.8%
• Results of the Highly Contentious U.S. Presidential Election Should Be Bullish for Gold, Irrespective of the Winner
• Nominal September Retail Sales Gain of 0.6% Was Dominated by Rising Prices and Gimmicked Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions
• Monthly September PPI Inflation: Goods up 0.65%, Services up 0.09%, Construction up 0.09%, Total up 0.27%
• Consumer Liquidity Continues to Constrain Economic Activity

No. 838: September Employment and Unemployment, ShadowStats Ongoing M3 October, 7th, 2016 • Political Shenanigans in Reporting of September Labor Conditions Were No Worse than the Standard Monthly Reporting Gimmicks
• Below-Consensus Headline Gain in September Payrolls Probably Was a Contraction, Net of Reporting Biases
• Headline Annual Payroll Growth Held at a 31-Month Low
• With Full-Time Jobs Down in September, All the Household-Survey Employment Gain Was in Part-Time Jobs
• September 2016 Unemployment Rate Changes Were Uneven: U.3 Rose to 5.0%, U.6 Held at 9.7%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Held at 23.0%
• Annual M3 Growth Held Even at 4.3% in September 2016, versus August 2016, While the Annual Decline in the Monetary Base Hit a Record

No. 837: August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Fed Policy October, 6th, 2016 • With Contracting Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Activity, Real Construction Spending Remained Down by 25% (-25%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Weakest Real Construction Spending Growth since Series Trough in 2011
• Widening of August Trade Deficit Was Due to Shrinking Services Surplus, Reflecting Payments for Importing Rio Olympics Intellectual Property
• With Second-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Worst Since 2007, Temporary Soybean Export Explosion Has Narrowed Third-Quarter Deficit
• Central Bank Intervention Appeared to Drive October 4th Gold Selling. Is a Policy Shift Pending?

No. 836: Second-Quarter GDP Second Revision, August Household Income September, 29th, 2016 • Economic Activity Still Remains Far from Recovery
• Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Declined by 0.2% (-0.2%) in a Quarterly Contraction
• Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Product Growth Rates Revised Higher as per Market Expectations
• Nonsense Reporting: Upside Revision of 0.32% to GDP Growth Was More than Accounted for by the Health Care Contribution to GDP Growth Revising from 0.44% to 0.83%
• Headline GDP Growth Patterns Run Counter to the Recession Seen in Freight Traffic, Petroleum Usage, Corporate Revenues and Broad Employment Indicators
•Real Median Household Income Continued to Stagnate in August

No. 835: August 2016 New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, FOMC September, 28th, 2016 • FOMC Rate-Hike Canard Remained Consistent with Dollar and Gold-Market Manipulations and a Post-Election Crisis that Could Revive Quantitative Easing
• Economic Activity Remains far from Recovery
• Third-Quarter Durable Goods Orders on Track for Year-to-Year Decline, Both Before and After Adjustment for Inflation and Commercial Aircraft
• August Home Sales (New and Existing) Declined in the Month, Amidst Unstable Reporting, with Smoothed Activity Continuing in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation

No. 834: August 2016 Housing Starts, Freight Index September, 20th, 2016 • Monthly Drops in August Housing Starts and Building Permits More than Offset Prior-Period Gains
• Both Starts and Permits Held in Smoothed, Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation; Still Shy of Pre-Recession Highs by 50%
• August Freight Index Indicated a Deepening Recession

No. 833: Annual Income, Consumer Liquidity, CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings September, 18th, 2016 • Consumer Conditions Continue to Deteriorate
• 2015 Household-Income Boost Reflected New Surveying of IRA Withdrawals and Census-Gimmicked Interest Income
• Consistently Surveyed, 2015 Household Income Remained Shy of Its Level at the 2009 Trough of the Economic Collapse and Held Below Levels of the Late-1980s and-Early 1970s
• Real Consumer Credit (Ex-Student Loans) and Household-Sector Debt Outstanding Are Down Respectively by 13.7% (-13.7%) and 12.6% (-12.6%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• August 2016 Annual Inflation Firmed by 0.2% to 0.3%, with CPI-U at 1.1%, CPI-W at 0.7% and ShadowStats at 8.7%
• August Real Retail Sales Plunged by 0.5% (-0.5%) Month-to-Month, with Annual Growth at a 30-Month Low, an Intensifying Recession Signal
• August Real Earnings Fell by 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Markets Increasingly Seem to Anticipate a Rate Hike

No. 832: August Production, Retail Sales, PPI September, 15th, 2016 • August Sales and Production Showed an Intensifying, Renewed Downturn
• Before Inflation Adjustment, August Retail Sales Declined in All Major Sectors, with Sharply Slowing Annual Growth
• Nominal Sales Decline Would Have Been Twice as Deep but for Boosts from Seasonal-Adjustment Inconsistencies and Distortions
• Although August Production Suffered Major Monthly and Annual Hits, Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction May Have Stopped Hemorrhaging
• With Industrial Production Representing 65% of GDP, Production and Manufacturing Were Down Respectively in August 2016 by 1.26% (-1.26%) and 6.41% (-6.41%) from Their Pre-2007 Recession Highs
• Four Consecutive Quarters of Annual Contraction in Production Are Unprecedented Outside of Formal Recessions
• Although Boosted by Collapsing Gasoline Prices and Survey Changes, Annual 2015 Real Median-Household Income Remained Shy of Its Level at the 2009 Trough of the Economic Collapse
• August Final Demand PPI Was Unchanged at 0.00%; Services Margins Increased 0.09%; Goods Prices Fell 0.37% (-0.37%); Construction Inflation Was Unchanged at 0.00%

No. 831: General Outlook September, 9th, 2016 • Tough Week Ahead for Headline Economic Data
• No Chance of a Near-Term Overheating of the Economy
• Jawboning for an Imminent FOMC Rate Hike Hits Stocks, Boosts the Dollar, Hits Gold and Silver
• Broad Outlook Unchanged

FLASH No. 830: Initial 2016 Benchmark Payroll Revisions September, 7th, 2016 • Private Sector Clobbered by 2016 Payroll Benchmark Revisions
• Biggest Hits Were to Health Services, Temp Services, and Retail Trade
• Biggest Upside Revision Was in Government

No. 829: Labor Market, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, M3 and Consumer Conditions September, 2nd, 2016 • Real Construction Spending Remained Down 24% (-24%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Weakest Real Construction Spending Growth since Series Trough in 2011
• Monthly Unemployment Data Simply Are Not-Comparable, Heavily Skewed by Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• August 2016 Unemployment Rates Held Even: U.3 at 4.9%, U.6 at 9.7% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rate at 23.0%
• Actual Monthly Change in August Payrolls Likely Was a Contraction • Though Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Distortions and Add-Factors, Annual Payroll Growth Effectively Held at a 30-Month Low • Second-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained Worst Since 2007
• Surging Soybean Exports Provided Short-Lived, Temporary Relief for the July and Early-Trend Third-Quarter Trade Deficits
• Annual M3 Growth Notched Higher to 4.2% in August 2016, from 4.1% in July, With the Annual Decline in the Monetary Base Just Shy of a Record

No. 828: First Revision to Second-Quarter 2016 GDP August, 26th, 2016 • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Second-Quarter Growth Revised to 1.1% (Previously 1.2%) versus 0.8% in First Quarter
• Gross Domestic Income (Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Growth Plunged to 0.2% in Second Quarter from 0.8% in First Quarter
• Gross National Product (Broadest Measure) Growth Jumped to 1.6% in Second Quarter from 0.0% in First Quarter
• Irrespective of Headline Reporting Instabilities for GDI, GNP and GDP Annual Growth Rates Are Slowing in a New-Recession Pattern

No. 827: July New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, FOMC August, 25th, 2016 • Federal Reserve Spokespeople Renew Their Rate-Hike Hype, Yet Economic Activity Remains far from Recovery
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Negative Year-to-Year, Both Before and After Adjustment for Inflation and Commercial Aircraft
• Mixed Signals from Headline Home-Sales Activity, with Existing-Homes in Faltering Monthly and Annual Contractions and Unstable New-Homes Gaining Beyond Credibility
• However Measured, Both New- and Existing-Home Sales Activity Remained in Broad, Non-Recovering Stagnation

No. 826: July Production, Housing Starts, CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Freight Index August, 17th, 2016 • Industrial Production Represents 65% of GDP
• Production Recovery from the 2007 Recession Lasted All of One Month
• Against Pre-2007 Recession Highs, Production and Manufacturing Were Down Respectively in July 2016 by 0.77% (-0.77%) and 5.80% (-5.80%)
• Still Never Seen Outside of Formal Recessions in the 98-Year History of Industrial Production, Three Consecutive Quarters of Annual Contraction Now Are Expanding into a Fourth Quarter
• July Real Retail Sales Were Unchanged Month-to-Month, with Annual Real Growth Weakening Sharply in an Intensifying Recession Signal
• Housing Starts Continued to Hold in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation, Never Having Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
• Second Quarter GDP Growth Should Face Downside Revision
• July 2016 Annual Inflation Softened by 0.2% (-0.2%), with CPI-U at 0.8%, CPI-W at 0.5% and ShadowStats at 8.5%
• Weakening Economic Circumstances Increasingly Befuddle Fed Activity, Weakening the Dollar and Strengthening Gold, Silver and Oil Prices

No. 825: July Nominal Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Consumer Conditions August, 12th, 2016 • Nominal Retail Sales Disappointed Expectations, Dropping by 0.04% (-0.04%) in July
• July PPI Services Margins Declined by 0.27% (-0.27%), Goods Prices Fell by 0.37% (-0.37%), Construction Costs Plunged by 0.61% (-0.61%), Total Final Demand PPI Was Down by 0.36% (-0.36%)
• Yet, Across-the-Board Deflation Generally Is Not the Common Experience
• In What Will Become an Increasingly Regular Pattern, Initial Market Response to the Intensifying Economic Downturn Will Be a Weaker Dollar and Higher Gold, Silver and Oil Prices

No. 824: July Labor Conditions and M3, June Trade Deficit and Construction Spending August, 5th, 2016 • Just a Week into Headline 1.2% Second-Quarter GDP Growth, New Trade and Construction Spending Details Promise a Downside Revision
• Trade Deficit Widened and Deepened in Revision, Worst Since 2007
• With Quarterly and Annual Growth Collapsing Anew, Real Construction Spending Growth Was Weakest Since 2011 Series Trough
• Ten Years after its June 2006 Pre-Recession Peak, Real Construction Spending Remained Down 26% (-26%) from Recovering that Benchmark Level
• Month-to-Month Unemployment Data Remained Meaningless and Nonsensical, Heavily Skewed by Inconsistent and Not-Comparable Seasonal Adjustments
• Though Heavily Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Distortions and Add-Factors, Annual Payroll Growth Effectively Held at a 29-Month Low
• July 2016 Unemployment: U.3 Held at 4.9%, U.6 Notched Higher to 9.7% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Rose to 23.0%
• Annual M3 Growth Eased to 4.1% in July 2016, from 4.5% in June, While the Monetary Base Firmed Slightly

No. 823: Second-Quarter 2016 GDP and Annual Revisions July, 31st, 2016 • Broad, Deepening Economic Downtrend Continued
• Revised Annual Change in GDP Slowed Sharply, Consistent with Entering a Recession
• Headline Real Quarterly GDP Revisions Took Fourth-Quarter 2015 and First-Quarter 2016 Growth Rates Lower, Below 1.0%, but Not Negative, with First-Quarter 2016 GNP Minimally Below Zero, Again
• Well Below Consensus, the Advance Second-Quarter 2016 Real GDP Annualized Growth of 1.22% Faces Likely Downside Revisions
• Nonetheless, Aggregate GDP Revisions Were Minimal and Heavily Gimmicked, Including Cycle-Dampening Three-Year Moving Averages
• Carefully Structured Statistical Shenanigans Were Designed to Smooth the Business Cycle, Not to Reveal It
• Velocity of Money Slowed Sharply in Second-Quarter 2016

No. 822: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Freight Index, Household Income July, 27th, 2016 • Broad Economic Downtrend Continued, Despite a Likely Positive, First Guesstimate of Second-Quarter GDP
• Real Durable Goods Orders Tumbled in Second-Quarter 2016 Both Before (-0.8%) and After (-4.1%) Consideration for Commercial Aircraft
• Year-to-Year New Orders Fell Sharply in June 2016, Both Before and After Consideration of Inflation and Commercial Aircraft
• Aggregate Real Durable Goods Orders Continued in Smoothed, Down-Trending, Low-Level Stagnation and Non-Recovery
• Absurd Surges in New-Home Sales Activity Were Not Significant, with the Series in Continued Low-Level Stagnation and Non-Recovery,
Still Shy of its Pre-Recession Peak by 57.4% (-57.4%)
• Despite Highest Existing-Home Sales Level Since 2007, Activity Remained Shy of its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.4% (-23.4%), Continuing in a Smoothed Pattern of Non-Recovering Stagnation
• Freight Index Showed Deepening New Recession, No Recovery
• After Tumbling in April and May, Real Median Household Income Ticked Insignificantly Higher in June

No. 821: June Housing Starts, Preview of GDP Revisions July, 19th, 2016 • Housing Starts Continued to Hold in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation,
Never Having Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
• Second-Quarter Starts Growth Slowed Sharply Amidst Downside Revisions
• Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series Underlying the GDP Indicate Pending Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP
• First- and Fourth-Quarter 2015, and First-Quarter 2016 GDP Are Most Vulnerable to Negative Revisions

No. 820 : June Production, Retail Sales, Consumer and Producer Inflation July, 16th, 2016 • New Recession Remains Very Much in Play; Second-Quarter GDP Prospects Have Dimmed, with Auto Sales and Production Spiked by Prior-Month Downside Revisions
• Never Seen Outside of Formal Recessions, Second-Quarter Production Showed Third Consecutive Set of Annual and Quarterly Contractions
• Down in June by 6.2% (-6.2%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Second-Quarter Manufacturing Contracted
• Second-Quarter Real Earnings Contracted
• Although Positive in the Second Quarter, Real Retail Sales Continued Its Intense Recession Signal
• June 2016 Annual Inflation Changed Minimally, with CPI-U at 1.0%, CPI-W Easing to 0.6% and ShadowStats at 8.7%
• Monthly PPI Goods Inflation Rose by 0.84% and Services Margins Rose by 0.45% in June 2016, with Total Final-Demand PPI up by 0.36% for the Month, 0.27% for the Year

No. 819: June Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 July, 8th, 2016 • Headline Month-to-Month Payroll and Unemployment Data Are Rubbish, Heavily Skewed by Inconsistent and Not-Comparable Seasonal Adjustments
• Private Surveying Shows Plunging Employment Circumstances Last Seen During the 2009 Economic Collapse • June 2016 Unemployment Rates: U.3 Rose to 4.9%, but U.6 Notched Lower to 9.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Eased to 22.9%
• The Fed Will Not Buy These Numbers, Legitimately
• Annual M3 Growth Jumped to 4.5% in June 2016, from 4.3% in May; While the Monetary Base Shrank a Bit

No.818: May Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Fed and Dollar Troubles July, 6th, 2016 • QE4, Systemic and Dollar Troubles Appear on the Horizon
• Trade Deficit Widened Anew, Damaging the Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP
• Construction Spending Benchmarking Was to the Upside, but Headline Growth Numbers Were Broadly Negative, with Real Annual Growth Sinking to a 53-Month Low
• Current Construction Spending Patterns Last Were Seen as Construction Activity Fell into Depression

No. 817: GDP Revision, Consumer Confidence, Evolving Global Circumstances June, 28th, 2016 • Brexit Impact Should Stabilize, with Implications for a Long-Overdue Reorganization and Overhaul of the EU and Euro
• U.S. Long-Term Solvency and Dollar Issues Remain Greatest Threat To Global-Economic and Financial-Market Stability
• In Final Reporting Before the July 29th GDP Benchmarking, U.S. Economy Was Stagnant in First-Quarter 2016, Reflecting No Statistically-Significant Change
• Real GDP Revision from 0.84% to 1.07% Reflected Weaker Inflation; Real Growth Was Upped by 0.23% as Inflation Revised Lower by 0.22% (-0.22%)
• Broader Gross National Product (GNP) Growth Revised to a 0.21% Gain, Having Declined Initially by 0.21% (-0.21%)
• At the Expenditure-Category Level, GDP Revisions Could Be Described as Bizarre and Inconsistent
• Shifting Political Perceptions May Have Boosted Consumer Confidence

No. 816: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Freight Index, Household Income, Brexit June, 24th, 2016 • In the Context of Almost-Certain Heavy Central-Bank Interventions, Headline Market Volatility Largely Retrenched from Recent Hype that Brexit Would Lose
• Yen and Gold Were Strongest Versus the Dollar Since 2014
• Real Median Household Income Tumbled Anew in May
• Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Real Durable Goods Orders Are in a Trend for Second-Quarter Annualized Contraction of 1.8% (-1.8%)
• Aggregate Real Durable Goods Orders Continued in Smoothed, Low-Level, Stagnant Non-Recovery
• In the Context of Downside Corrections to Prior Months, May New-Home Sales Fell Sharply
• Continuing in Low-Level Stagnation, Non-Recovering New-Home Sales Remained Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 60.3% (-60.3%)
• Despite Highest Existing-Home Sales Level Since 2007, Activity Remained Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 23.9% (-23.9%), Continuing in a Smoothed Pattern of Stagnation
• Freight Index Showed Continuing Non-Recovery and Deepening New Recession

No. 815: May 2016 Housing Starts, Economic Review June, 17th, 2016 • Housing Starts Continued to Hold in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation, Never Having Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
• May 2016 Economic Detail Generally Was Bleak
• Unfolding Recession Should Become Increasingly Obvious in the Month Ahead; Recognition Should Follow the July 29th GDP Benchmark Revisions

No. 814: May 2016 Consumer Price Index, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, FOMC June, 16th, 2016 • Watch Out for Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, as the U.S. Economy Continues to Sink and the FOMC Continues to Balk
• May 2016 Annual Inflation Softened Across the Board: CPI-U at 1.0%, CPI-W at 0.7%, ShadowStats at 8.7%
• Headline Monthly CPI-U Rose by 0.22% Adjusted, 0.41% Unadjusted
• Real Retail Sales Continued an Intense Recession Signal • Revised Real Earnings Now Are Down for Three Months Straight, Indicating a Second-Quarter Contraction

No. 813: May 2016 Industrial Production, Producer Price Index June, 15th, 2016 • Deepening Recession
• Second-Quarter 2016 Industrial Production Continued to Sink, Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
• Outside of Recession, a Third Consecutive Quarter of Annual Contraction Is Unprecedented in the 97-Year History of the Production Series
• Never Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, the Manufacturing Sector Was Down by 6.55% (-6.55%) from Its December 2007 Peak
• Having Had a One-Month Recovery in November 2014; Production Was Down by 2.94% (-2.94%) from Its �Recovery� Peak, and by 2.06% (-2.06%) from Its November 2007 Pre-Recession High
• Tentative Respite for the Mining Sector?
• May 2016 PPI Goods Inflation Rose by 0.66% Month-to-Month,PPI Services Profit Margins Rose by 0.18%, Leaving Aggregate Final-Demand PPI Inflation Up by 0.36%
• Year-to-Year PPI Final-Demand Inflation Fell by 0.09% (-0.09%)

No. 812: May 2016 Nominal Retail Sales June, 14th, 2016 • Statistically-Insignificant, and Due Largely to Rising Inflation, May Nominal Retail Sales Gained 0.45%
• Inflation-Adjusted Real Retail Sales Likely Will Be Flat for the Month, with Real Annual Sales Growth Still Generating an Intense Recession Signal

No. 811: General Outlook, Underlying Economic Reality June, 10th, 2016 • Faltering Anew, Broad Business Activity Remains in Non-Recovery
• Pending Weaker Economic Data Should Hit the Dollar Hard
• Despite Central Bank Pummeling of the Gold Price, Gold Holds Its Own versus Central-Bank-Propped Stock Markets
• Underlying Consumer Conditions Remain Heavily Stressed

PUBLIC COMMENTARY ON UNEMPLOYMENT MEASUREMENT June, 8th, 2016 • The material contained in this Public Commentary largely was excerpted from Regular Commentary No. 810 of June 5, 2016.

No. 810: Labor Conditions, M3, Trade Deficit and Revisions, Construction Spending June, 5th, 2016 • As Happy Economic Data Evaporate, Chances for an FOMC Rate Hike and Perpetual Fed Propping of the Dollar and Stocks Will Diminish
• Net of Downside Revisions to April, May Payrolls fell by 50,000 (-50,000), by More than the 35,000 Striking Telecommunication Workers; Full-Time Employment Dropped by 59,000 (-59,000)
• May 2016 Unemployment Rates Diverged: U.3 Fell from 5.0% to 4.7%, but U.6 Held at 9.7% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Rose from 22.9% to 23.0%
• Plunge in the HeadlineUnemployment Rate Came from Unemployed Leaving the Labor Force, Not from Finding Jobs
• The Labor-Force Participation-Rate Measure Favored by Fed Chair Yellen Shifted Negatively to 62.6% in May, from 62.8% in April
• Despite Collapsing April 2016 Real Construction Spending, Broad Activity Continued in Low-Level, Stagnating Non-Recovery • Commerce Department Moved to Reduce the Trade Deficit and to Boost the Headline Economy by Redefining and Gussying-Up the Trade Surplus in the Otherwise Fluffy-Services Sector
• Hard Detail from the Real Merchandise Trade Sector Showed a Deeper Deficit and Weaker Economy in Revision
• Annual M3 Growth Jumped to 4.2% in May 2016, from 3.9% in April; M2 Jumped to 6.8% from 6.4%; M1 Surged to 8.7% from 6.2%

No. 809: Revised First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product and Initial Gross National Product May, 27th, 2016 • U.S. Economy Contracted in First-Quarter 2016
• First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Declined by 0.21% (-0.21%)
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Revised to 0.84% from 0.54%
• GNP Is the Broadest Measure of U.S. Economic Activity, but like Other Net-Debtor Nations, the United States Prefers to Tout Its Headline GDP
• July 29th GDP Benchmark Revisions Promise Downside Corrections to Headline GDP Activity Since 2013

No. 808: April Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Household Income May, 26th, 2016 • Downwardly-Benchmarked Durable Goods Orders Remained in Smoothed, Low-Level, Stagnant Non-Recovery, Both With and Without Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Headline Jump in April New Orders Was Due Primarily to a 64.9% Surge in Irregular, Long-Term Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Despite a Nonsensical 16.6% Monthly Surge in New-Home Sales, Activity Remained 55.4% (-55.4%) Shy of Pre-Recession Recovery, While the Smoothed Series Continued in Low-Level Stagnation
• Still 25.0% (-25.0%) Shy of Pre-Recession Recovery, Existing-Home Sales Are in Smoothed, Down-Trending Stagnation
• April Real Median Household Income Eased to a Five-Month Low

No. 807A: Durable Goods Orders Benchmark Revision, GDP Outlook, Existing-Home Sales May, 20th, 2016 • Sharply Negative Benchmark Revisions to Shipments of Manufacturers and New Orders for Durable Goods Promise Downside Adjustments to GDP on July 29th
• 12% of the Recovery in Monthly Shipments, Post-2009 Trough, Just Disappeared in Revision
• Smoothed Existing-Home Sales Held in Low-Level, Down-Trending Stagnation

No. 807: CPI, Real Retail Sales, Production, Housing Starts, Freight Index, FOMC and the Dollar May, 19th, 2016 • Ongoing and Intensifying Economic Downturn Continues,
Despite Some April Fluff, Unusual Seasonals and One-Time Factors • Domestic Freight Index Continued to Show Crashing Activity
• Two Consecutive, Annual Declines in Quarterly Industrial Production Never Have Been Seen Outside of Formal Recessions, and First-Quarter 2016
Is on Track for a Third Straight Contraction • April 2016 Annual Inflation Increased Across the Board:
CPI-U at 1.1%, CPI-W at 0.8%, ShadowStats at 8.8% • Real Retail Sales Continued an Intense Recession Signal • Non-Recovered Housing Starts Remained in Smoothed,
Low-Level Stagnation • Downside Revisions to Durable Goods Orders and Shipments
Promise Downside GDP Benchmarking

No. 806: April Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index May, 13th, 2016 • Intensifying Economic Downturn Continues
• Nominal Retail Sales Jump Reflected Rising Inflation and a One-Time, Unsustainable Monthly Boost in Auto Sales
• April 2016 PPI Goods Inflation Rose by 0.19%, PPI Services Profit Margins Rose by 0.09%, Leaving Aggregate Final-Demand PPI Inflation Up by 0.18%
• April�s Monthly Construction Inflation of 0.79% Will Take a Toll on Real Construction Spending
• Presidential Politics Affecting Consumer Sentiment?

No. 805: April Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 May, 6th, 2016 • Negative Economic Conditions Traditionally Weigh Heavily Against the Incumbent Party Holding the White House
• Payroll and Unemployment Details Showed Some Catch-Up in Heavily Distorted Reporting
• Annual Payroll Growth Fell to a 23-Month Low
• April Payroll Gain of 160,000 Jobs Was Heavily Overstated; Full-Time Employed Dropped by 253,000 (-253,000) with Total Employed Declining by 316,000 (-316,000)
• Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio Declined
• April 2016 Unemployment Rates Were Little Changed: U.3 at 5.0%, U.6 at 9.7% and ShadowStats at 22.9%
• Annual M3 Growth Held at 3.9% in April 2016

No. 804: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Retail Sales and Other Revisions May, 4th, 2016 • First-Quarter 2016 Real Merchandise Trade Shortfall Was Deepest Since Third-Quarter 2007
• Narrowing of March 2016 Monthly Trade Deficit Reflected Weakening Demand for Consumer Goods
• First-Quarter Construction Spending Revised Sharply Lower
• Volatile Real Spending Remained in Non-Recovery, Ongoing Low-Level Stagnation
• Annual Retail Sales Revisions Were Relatively Small, but with Unusual Twists; Weaker Sales Seen with Better-Quality Data
• Downside Revisions Loom for GDP Detail

No. 803: First-Quarter 2016 GDP, Velocity of Money, FOMC April, 28th, 2016 • First-Quarter GDP Growth of 0.5% Was Absolute Nonsense
• Residential Investment Contributed 0.5% of the 0.5% Headline Growth, Yet, Housing Starts Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter
• Annual and Quarterly GDP Growth Slowed to Two-Year Lows
• Meaningful Downside Revisions Loom for the GDP
• Declining Velocity of Money Reflected Slowing GDP Activity

No. 802: March New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales April, 26th, 2016 • Durable Goods Orders Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter Both in Fourth-Quarter 2015 and First-Quarter 2016
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Continued in Non-Recovery with Smoothed, Low-Level and Down-Trending Stagnation
• Three-Month Moving Average of Confidence Tumbled to a 16-Month Low

No. 801: March Housing Starts, First-Quarter GDP Outlook April, 19th, 2016 • First-Quarter 2016 Housing Starts Turned Negative, for a Second Consecutive Quarterly Decline
• Headline Quarterly Contractions Are in Place for First-Quarter Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Housing Starts
• GDP Expectations Likely Will Shift to a Quarterly Downturn; Headline Reporting Likely Will Follow the Consensus

No. 800: March Industrial Production, Economic Review April, 15th, 2016 • Economic Activity Is Deteriorating Rapidly, Not Improving
• First-Quarter 2016 Annual Contraction of 1.7% (-1.7%) in Production Followed a 1.6% (-1.6%) Year-to-Year Drop in Fourth-Quarter 2015
• That Pattern of Consecutive Annual Quarterly Declines Never Has Been Seen Outside of a Formal Recession, Since the Industrial Production Series Was First Published in 1919
• Quarter-to-Quarter Production Tumbled by 2.2% (-2.2%) in First-Quarter, the Fourth Quarterly Contraction in Last Five Quarters
• Decades of Bad Trade Deals Have Decimated U.S. Production, Starving U.S. Consumers of the Liquidity Needed to Sustain Domestic and Global Economic Growth

No. 799: CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Gold and the U.S. Dollar April, 14th, 2016 • Dollar Selling Has Picked Up in Response to a Faltering Economy and a Befuddled Fed
• Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.4% (-0.4%) in March 2016, with an Annualized Contraction of 0.2% (-0.2%) in the First-Quarter
• Real Annual Sales Growth Fell to a 25-Month Low
• March 2016 Annual Inflation Softened Across the Board: CPI-U at 0.9%, CPI-W at 0.5%, ShadowStats at 8.5%
• Heavily Skewed by Bad Seasonals, Monthly and Annual Real Earnings Flattened Out

No. 798: March Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) April, 13th, 2016 • First-Quarter 2016 Retail Sales Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter,
Before and Most Likely Also After Inflation Adjustment
• Non-Comparable Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Boosted March Sales to a
Decline of 0.3% (-0.3%), Instead of About 0.8% (-0.8%)
• Retail Sales Series Faces Likely Major Downside Revisions in
April 30th Benchmarking
• March 2016 PPI Goods Inflation rose by 0.19%,
PPI Services Profit Margins Fell by 0.18% (-0.18%), Leaving
Aggregate Final-Demand PPI Inflation Down by 0.09% (-0.09%)

No. 797: February Trade Deficit April, 5th, 2016 • First-Quarter Trade Deficit Continued to Deepen, Worst Shortfall in Nearly Ten Years
• In Advance of Likely Downside Benchmark Revisions, First-Quarter 2016 GDP Increasingly Is Unfolding as a Contraction

No. 796-A: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision April, 3rd, 2016 • Heavy Downside Revisions to Manufacturing and Consumer Sectors
• Deeper Quarterly Production Contractions Foreshadow GDP Changes
• Industrial Production Revised Back to Below its Pre-Recession High
• Level of February 2016 Production Revised Lower by 2.5% (-2.5%)

No. 796: Production Revisions, Labor Conditions, Construction Spending, Consumer, M3 April, 1st, 2016 • Downside Production Revisions Foreshadow GDP Changes
• Level of February 2016 Production Revised Lower by 2.0% (-2.0%)
• Industrial Production Recovery Pushed Back by Six Months
• March Payroll and Unemployment Details Were Nonsense, Well Removed from Underlying Economic Reality
• March 2016 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 at 5.0%, U.6 at 9.8% and ShadowStats at 22.9%
• Volatile Real Construction Spending Remained in Non-Recovery, Ongoing Low-Level Stagnation
• Annual M3 Growth Rebounded to 3.9% in March 2016 from a Two-Year Low of 3.6% in February 2016

No. 795: Fourth-Quarter 2015 GNP, GDP, GDI March, 25th, 2016 • U.S. Economic Reality Remains Non-Recovery and Renewed Downturn
• Upside Revision to Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Was Not Meaningful
• Revisions Were Driven by Soft Data Elements Such as Guesstimated Services and �Other Goods�
• Quarterly Growth Rates in the Broader Gross National Product (1.1%)
and the GDP-�Equivalent� Gross Domestic Income (0.9%)
• Were Weaker than the Headline Gross Domestic Product (1.4%)
• Net of Revisions, GDI Growth Was 0.3%
• Annual Real GDP Growth Still the Weakest Since First-Quarter 2014

No. 794: New Orders for Durable Good, New- and Existing-Home Sales March, 24th, 2016 • Nominal Durable Goods Orders on Track for First-Quarter Contraction, Both Before and After Consideration of Commercial Aircraft Orders
• February Orders Fell versus Downwardly-Revised January Reporting
• On Track for Quarterly and Annual First-Quarter Contractions, Unstable New-Home Sales Held in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation
• Existing-Home Sales Tumbled Anew Amidst Unstable Reporting and a Continued Increase in Distressed Sales

No. 793: CPI, Real Retail Sales, Production, Housing Starts, GDP and U.S. Dollar March, 17th, 2016 • With a Contracting Economy and a Waffling Fed, the U.S. Dollar Has Tumbled, Turning Negative Year-to-Year, Boosting Gold, Silver and Oil Prices
• Both Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales Are on Track for First-Quarter 2016 Quarterly Contractions
• Housing Starts Continued in Low-Level Stagnation, Still Down 48% (-48%) from Their Pre-Recession Peak
• February 2016 Annual Inflation Softened Across the Board: CPI-U at 1.0%, CPI-W at 0.7%, ShadowStats at 8.7%
• Real Income Rose in February, and the Cost of Living Fell, Only on a Seasonally-Adjusted Basis

No. 792: Retail Sales and Producer Price Index March, 15th, 2016 • Previously up by 0.2%, January Retail Sales Fell by a Revised 0.4% (-0.4%); February Sales Fell by 0.1% (-0.1%), with a Quarterly Sales Drop Unfolding
•Seasonal-Adjustment Inconsistencies Bloated Headline February Sales by 0.5%; Consistent Reporting Would Have Seen a Headline Decline of 0.6% (-0.6%)
• February 2016 PPI Goods Inflation Fell by 0.56% (-0.56%), PPI Services Profit Margins Were Unchanged at 0.00%, with Final-Demand PPI Inflation Down by 0.18% (-0.18%)

No. 791: Some General Observations March, 11th, 2016 • Headline Economic Data Should Tumble in the Week Ahead, Along with Weaker Headline Inflation
• Domestic Freight Index Continued in Year-to-Year Decline
• Slowing Business Activity Should Hit the U.S. Dollar; Central Banks Never Resolved 2008

No. 790: Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3, Trade Deficit and Construction Spending March, 5th, 2016 • February Payroll and Unemployment Details Were Nonsense, Well Removed from Underlying Economic Reality
• Annual Payroll Growth Held at Twenty-Month Low
• Headline Payrolls Gained 242,000; Full-Time Employment Gained 65,000
• February 2016 Unemployment Rates: U.3 at 4.9%, U.6 at 9.7%, and ShadowStats at 22.8%
• First-Quarter 2016 Real Trade Deficit on Track for Continuing Deterioration,
with Negative Implications for First-Quarter GDP
• Real Construction Spending Remained in Non-Recovery, Ongoing Low-Level Stagnation
• February 2016 Annual Growth Declined Sharply for M1 and M3, Dropping to Levels Last Seen Surrounding the Economic Collapse

No. 789: Fourth-Quarter GDP � First Revision February, 26th, 2016 • GDP Revision from 0.69% to 1.01% Was No More than Statistical Noise
• Confidence Interval Around the Headline Growth Encompasses Both Growth and Contraction
• U.S. Economic Reality Remains Non-Recovery and Renewed Downturn

No. 788: January New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales February, 25th, 2016 • Regularly-Volatile Durable Goods Orders Had a Positive Month, Amidst Continuing Downside Trends and Recession Signals
• New-Home Sales Activity Remained Unstable but Held in Smoothed, Down-Trending, Low-Level Stagnation
• Existing-Homes Sales Activity Remained Uncertain, Despite Revisions; Smoothed Activity Held in Down-Trending, Low-Level Stagnation

No. 787: January Consumer Price Index, GDP Outlook February, 20th, 2016 • January 2016 Annual Inflation Increased Across the Board: CPI-U at 1.4%, CPI-W at 1.2%, ShadowStats at 9.0%
• Annual CPI-U at 15-Month High
• Headline January 2016 Monthly Inflation at 0.03% Was 0.17% before Seasonal Adjustments
• Revisions to Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation Suggested Much-Weaker Fourth-Quarter 2015 GDP in Mid-Year Benchmarking
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction Still Pending

No. 786: Industrial Production, Housing Starts, PPI February, 18th, 2016 • Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision Looms
• First-Quarter Activity Has Started Off on the Downside
• First-Quarter Production on Early Track for Quarterly and Annual Contractions
• January Downturn in Unstable Housing Starts Followed a Revised, Deeper Contraction in Fourth-Quarter Activity
• Unusual Inflation Revisions Suggested Much-Weaker Fourth-Quarter 2015 GDP in Mid-Year Benchmarking
• January PPI Goods Inflation Fell by 0.65% (-0.65%), While Services Profit Margins Rose by 0.54%

No. 785: U.S. Dollar and Gold, Nominal Retail Sales, Consumer February, 12th, 2016 • Mounting Concerns for U.S. Economy Have Begun to Trouble the Dollar, Boosting Gold and Silver
• Significant Weakness Ahead in Headline Economic Reporting Increasingly Should Roil the Markets
• Minimal Headline Gain in Nominal Retail Sales Generated by Shifting and Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• Level of Early-February 2016 Consumer Sentiment Index Fell 1.4% (-1.4%), Down 4.9% (-4.9%) Year-to-Year
• January 2016 Cass Freight Index Showed Continuing Non-Recovery and Renewed Downturn

No. 784-A: Payroll Benchmark Revisions and Reporting Biases February, 10th, 2016 • Payroll-Reporting’s Upside Bias-Factors Were Boosted by 20% to an Annual Pace of 941,000 Jobs, Despite the Downside Benchmark Revision of 206,000 (-206,000)
• Non-Comparability of Seasonally-Adjusted Data Coming Out of the 2015 Revision Showed Some Parallel Patterns versus the 2014 Circumstance

No. 784: Labor Conditions, Employment Benchmark, Trade Deficit and Construction Spending February, 6th, 2016 • Mounting Concerns for U.S. Economy Have Begun to Trouble the Dollar
• Revisions Weakened Payroll Growth, Confirmed Non-Comparable Seasonal Adjustments and Disrupted Month-to-Month Household-Survey Detail
• Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Hit a 20-Month Low
• January 2016 Unemployment Rates: U.3 at 4.9%, U.6 at 9.9%, and ShadowStats at 22.9%
• Worst Quarterly and Annual Real Merchandise Trade Deficits Since 2007
• Fourth-Quarter Construction Spending Contracted
• Repeating a Pattern Last Seen at Onset of the Economic Collapse, Growth Has Turned Lower for M3 and Higher for M2 and M1
• Monetary Base Has Continued in Year-to-Year Decline

No. 783: Fourth-Quarter GDP, Consumer and Monetary Conditions January, 29th, 2016 • Annualized Real GDP Growth Slowed to 0.69% in Headline Reporting, Poised for Headline Contraction in February 26th First Revision
• Difference Between the Headline Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth and an Outright Quarterly Contraction Was Not Statistically Significant
• Worst Real Trade Deficit in Eight Years
• Velocity of Money Slowed; January M3 Annual Growth Slowed Markedly; Monetary Base Has Stabilized

No. 782: December Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales January, 28th, 2016 • New Orders for Durable Goods Fell in Fourth-Quarter 2015, Both Before and After Consideration for Commercial Aircraft and Inflation
• Orders Signaled Deepening Downturn and Contracting First-Quarter Production
• North American Freight Activity Has Indicated Renewed Economic Contraction in the Context of No Economic Recovery
• With Heavy Systemic Distortions Recognized in Headline Existing-Home Sales Swinging from Down by 10.5% (-10.5%) in November to Up by 14.7% in December, Consistent Sales Numbers Were Closer to Down by 4.8% (-4.8%) and Up by 1.9%
• Fourth-Quarter 2015 Existing-Home Sales Plunged by 20.0% (-20.0%) against Third-Quarter Activity, Irrespective of the Monthly Reporting Issues
• Although Not Statistically Significant, New-Home Sales Rose Month-to-Month, Year-to-Year and Quarter-to-Quarter

No. 781: GDP, December CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts January, 21st, 2016 • Fourth-Quarter GDP Remains Good Bet for Quarterly Contraction, Although Not Likely Until the First Revision
• Fourth-Quarter Real Retail Sales Flattened Out; Annual Growth Continued to Signal Recession
• Fourth-Quarter Housing Starts Turned Down Quarter-to-Quarter
• December Gains in Average Weekly Earnings Were Minimal, with Real Growth Boosted by Negative Monthly Inflation
• December Annual Inflation Increased Across the Board: CPI-U at 0.7%, CPI-W at 0.4%, ShadowStats at 8.4%

No. 780 December Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Producer Prices (PPI) January, 16th, 2016 • Recession in Hand – Here Is What It Looks Like
• Fourth-Quarter Production Plunged by 3.4% (-3.4%) at Annualized Pace; Quarter Was Down Year-to-Year by 0.9% (-0.9%)
• Year-to-Year Decline Was of a Magnitude Seen Previously Only in Formal Recessions, Post-World War II, and with the 1952 Steel Strike, When President Truman Nationalized the Steel Industry
• Headline Nominal December Retail Sales Fell by 0.1% (-0.1%), Down by 0.4% (-0.4%) Using Old-Fashioned, Consistent Seasonal Factors
• Quarterly Retail Sales Growth Slowed Sharply, Possibly Flat Net of Inflation, with Continued Recession Signal Generated by Sub-Par Annual Growth
• December Headline Wholesale Goods Inflation Fell by 0.74% (-0.74%), While Wholesale Service-Industry Profit Margins Rose by 0.09%; Headline, Hybrid PPI Declined by 0.18% (-0.18%) for the Month

No. 779-A: Declining Monetary Base and Reserves January, 10th, 2016 • Monetary-Base Decline Largely Has Reflected the New York Federal Reserve’s Open Market Operations in Targeting the New Federal Funds Rate

No. 779: December Labor Numbers, Shifting Monetary Conditions and Money Supply M3 January, 9th, 2016 • Something Afoot in the Banking System?
• Post-FOMC Rate Hike, Excess Reserves in Historic Plunge; Monetary Base Dropped to 28-Month Low in Record Annual Decline
• December Year-to-Year Broad Money Supply Growth Fell to 4.5% from 5.2% in November
• Employment and Unemployment Reality Remained Bleak
• Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at 19-Month Low
• Headline Payrolls Heavily Skewed by Unpublished Seasonal Shifts
• Household-Survey Revisions Were Unusually Minimal
• November 2015 Unemployment Levels Unchanged: U.3 held at 5.0%; U.6 at 9.9%, and ShadowStats at 22.9%
• Fourth-Quarter Industrial Production Faces Quarterly and Annual Contractions in Week Ahead

No. 778: November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending January, 6th, 2016 • Fourth-Quarter Real Trade Deficit Continued on Track for Worst Showing Since Third-Quarter 2007, Indicative of Looming Hit to GDP
• Real Construction Spending Now on Track for Fourth-Quarter 2015 Contraction, Consistent with Other Signals for a Drop in Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Corrected for “Processing Errors” Headline Construction Spending Was Higher, but With Weaker and Declining Growth Across-the-Board
• Reporting Mistakes: A New Era in the Quality of Headline Government Reporting? Next Month We Get to See the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Corrections for “Processing Errors” in Income Estimates

No. 777: Key Issues in the Past Year and the Year Ahead December, 30th, 2015 • A Heavily-Troubled 2015 Has Set Up 2016 for Disorders in the
Financial Markets, Systemic Stability and the U.S. Political Arena
• Formal �New� Recession Recognition Is Likely Early in the New Year
• Real S&P 500 Sales — Net of Stock-Buyback Distortions — Showed No Post-2009 Recovery in the Economy, but Instead Showed Low-Level Stagnation that Shifted Recently to Intensifying Downturn
• Deepening U.S. Contraction Should Hit the U.S. Dollar Hard, Where a Temporarily-Sidelined FOMC Touts an Economic Focus, and Federal-Deficit, Systemic-Solvency and Treasury-Funding Issues Come to the Fore
• Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Have No Way Out as Dangers from the Panic of 2008 Persist
• Heavy Dollar Selling Should Generate Rallying Gold, Silver and Oil Prices
• U.S. Electorate Likely Will Vote Its Pocketbook

No. 776: November Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales December, 23rd, 2015 • Net of Inflation and Commercial Aircraft Orders, November Durable Orders Were Stronger than the Headline “Unchanged”
• Nonetheless, Smoothed Orders in This Volatile Series Still Were Consistent with an Unfolding Recession
• New-Home Sales Continued in a Smoothed Pattern of Deepening Down-Trend, Low-Level Stagnation

No. 775: GDP Revision, November Existing-Home Sales December, 22nd, 2015 • Existing-Homes Sales Collapse Consistent with Deepening Recession, Even Allowing for Special Factors
• Rapidly Mounting Odds for Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction
• GDP Revisions Were No More than Statistical Noise; Third-Quarter Gain of 1.98% Was Not Statistically Significant; Annual Growth at Six-Quarter Low
• With Rate-Hike Speculation Temporarily Sated, Deteriorating Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boosting Gold, Silver and Oil Prices, and Domestic Inflation

No. 774: November Industrial Production, Housing Starts, FOMC December, 16th, 2015 • With Recession Deepening, the FOMC Finally Hiked Rates
• November Industrial Production Tumbled, Confirming Recession: Down Month-to-Month by 0.6% (-0.6%), Year-to-Year by 1.2% (-1.2%), Quarterly and Annual Contractions Are Virtual Certainties in Fourth Quarter
• Outside of Formal Recessions, the 1956 Steel Strike Was the Last Time Headline Production Declined Year-to-Year by More than One-Percent
• Fourth-Quarter Housing Starts Also Appear Headed into Quarterly Contraction
• Third-Quarter GDP Faces Downside Revision Pressures; Fourth-Quarter GDP Increasingly Looks Like a Contraction

No. 773: November CPI, Real Retail and Earnings December, 15th, 2015 • Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Slowed to 0.9%, Indicating Recession
• Early Trend in Fourth-Quarter Real Retail Sales Now Is Flat
• Monthly Real Average Weekly Earnings Flattened Out in November
• November Annual Inflation Turned Positive Across the Board: 0.5% (CPI-U), 0.1% (CPI-W), 0.1% (C-CPI-U), 8.1% (ShadowStats)

No. 772: Retail Sales, Liquidity, PPI, Federal Obligations, SDRs, FOMC December, 11th, 2015 • Consistent, Fiscal-Year-End 2015 Gross Federal Debt Hit a Post-World War II High at 104.4% of GDP, Total Federal Obligations Exceeded $100 Trillion, at 540% of GDP
• IMF Gave ChineseYuan Favorable Consideration and a Strong SDR Weighting
• 0.2% Gain in Nominal Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant and Was Not Much Higher than Likely Inflation
• Continued Sharp Slowing of Annual Retail Sales Growth Intensified the Signal for Imminent Recession
• November Industrial Production Set to Turn Negative Year-to-Year for First Time Since the Economic Collapse – An Issue for the FOMC?
• Headline Monthly PPI Inflation of 0.27% Reflected Continuing Nonsense, Services Inflation Spiked by Falling Gasoline Price

No. 771: November Labor Conditions and M3, October Trade Deficit and Construction Spending December, 5th, 2015 • Fourth-Quarter Real Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Showing Since Third-Quarter 2007, Suggestive of Hit to GDP
• Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Dropped to 18-Month Low
• Employment Gain Was All in Part-Time for Economic Reasons; Full-Time Employment Was up by just 3,000
• Broader November 2015 Unemployment Rates Increased: U.3 held at 5.0%; U.6 and ShadowStats Respectively Notched Higher to 9.9% and 22.9%
• Construction Spending “Surge” Was in Rising Inflation, Not in Physical Activity
• Broad Annual Money Supply Growth Fell to 5.2% from 5.5%
• Rate Hike Is Far from Certain: Fed’s Primary Concerns Center on Risks of Severe Systemic Instabilities not on Lack of Economic Recovery

No. 770: October New Orders for Durable Goods, New-Home Sales November, 25th, 2015 • Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Nominal October Durable Goods Orders Contracted Month-to-Month, Year-to-Year and Suggested a Fourth-Quarter Downturn
• New-Home Sales Continued in a Smoothed Pattern of Down-Trending, Low-Level Stagnation
• Recession Outlook Continued to Deepen

No. 769: Revised Third-Quarter GDP, October Existing-Home Sales, November Confidence November, 24th, 2015 • Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Revised to 2.08% from 1.49%, But the Initial Estimate of Broader Gross National Product Came in at 1.27%
• Guesstimated Upside Inventory Revisions Dominated Downside GDP Revisions from Slackening Personal Consumption and a Widening Trade Deficit
• Unfolding and Deepening Recession Continues
• Signaling a Fourth-Quarter Contraction, October Existing-Home Sales Joined Declining Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production
• November Consumer Confidence Continued to Tumble

No. 768: October Housing Starts, Economic Review November, 18th, 2015 • Downwardly-Revised Housing Starts at Seven-Month Low, Declined Monthly, Quarterly and Annually
• Contraction Indicated for Fourth-Quarter Housing Starts
• Third-Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Generally Should Revise Lower, Fourth-Quarter 2015 GDP Increasingly Faces a Quarterly Downturn
• Total Housing Starts Down 53% (-53%), Single-Unit Starts Down 60% (-60%) From Pre-Recession Highs
• Intensifying U.S.Economic Weakness Should Become Dominant Concern of U.S. Financial Markets

No. 767: October CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Industrial Production November, 17th, 2015 • Both October Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales Indicated Fourth-Quarter Contractions
• Headline Monthly Activity Fell by 0.2% (-0.2%) for Both Production and Real Retail Sales
• Annual Growth in Both Production and Retail Sales Fell Deeper into Recession Territory
• Monthly Real Average Weekly Earnings Rose in October, Despite Inflation Uptick
• October Annual Inflation: 0.2% (CPI-U), -0.4% (CPI-W), 7.8% (ShadowStats)
• Intensifying Weakness in U.S. Economy Should Take Financial-Market Dominance, Pushing Aside Concerns for Global Political Turmoil and U.S. Fed Machinations

No. 766: October Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Updated Consumer Liquidity November, 13th, 2015 • Net of Prior-Period Revisions, Nominal October Retail Sales Fell by 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Annual Sales Growth Slowed Sharply, Intensifying Imminent-Recession Warning
• Net of Inflation Adjustment, Real Retail Sales Likely Declined Month-to-Month, Possibly Trending into a Quarterly Contraction
• Aggregate Headline PPI Drop of 0.36% (-0.36%) Was Nonsense, Reflecting Counterintuitive Inflation Definitions, Where Rising Gasoline Prices Reduced Services Inflation
• Resurgent Construction Costs Will Take a Toll on Headline Inflation-Adjusted Construction Spending
• Weak Retail Sales and Falling Wholesale Inflation Did Not Reinforce “Certainty” of December FOMC Rate-Boost

No. 765: October Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 November, 7th, 2015 • Any FOMC Rate-Boost “Certainty’ Resulting from October Jobs Reporting, Remains More Hype than Reality, with Meaningfully-Weak Data Ahead
• Except for Even-Softer September Annual Growth, in Revision, October Payroll Growth Was at a 17-Month Low
• Unusual, Unstable and Invisible Shifts in Seasonal Factors Helped to Boost or Skew Headline Payrolls
• Headline Decline in Unemployment from 5.1% to 5.0% Was a Decline from 5.05% to 5.04%
• October 2015 Unemployment: 5.0% (U.3), 9.8% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats)
• Broad Annual Money Supply Growth Continued to Slow

No. 764: September Trade Deficit, Construction Spending November, 4th, 2015 • Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007
• Full Reporting of September Trade Detail Indicated a Greater Hit to GDP, Suggesting a Negative Third-Quarter GDP Revision
• Third-Quarter Real Construction Spending Growth Slowed Sharply
• Consumer Outlook Falters Along with a Declining Economy and Increasingly Volatile and Negative Financial Markets
• With Time Running Out on the Dollar, Who Is Going to Buy the U.S. Treasuries?

No. 763: Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Velocity of Money October, 29th, 2015 • Deepening Recession Continues
• Sharp Slowing in Third-Quarter GDP Growth Reflected Only a Reduced Pace of Inventory Build-Up, Not a Liquidation
• Velocity of Money Slowed Minimally in Third-Quarter 2015
• New FOMC Language, a New Speaker and a Developing Budget Deal — but Nothing Has Changed

No. 762: September Durable Goods Orders, New-and Existing-Home Sales October, 27th, 2015 • September Durable Goods Orders Sank Year-to-Year for Eighth Straight Month, Both Before and After Any Consideration for Inflation or Aircraft Orders
• Detail Remained Consistent with an Unfolding Recession
• Some Tightening in Home-Buyer/Seller Liquidity Conditions?
• Existing-Home Sales in Foreclosure Notched Higher as Did All-Cash Sales
• Low-Level Stagnation in Smoothed New-Homes Sales Activity Shifted from Flat- to Down-Trending in September Detail

No. 761: September Housing Starts, Economic Update October, 20th, 2015 • September Housing Starts Continued in Low-Level But Up-Trending Stagnation
• Total Starts Down 47% (-47%), Single-Unit Starts Down 60% (-60%) From Pre-Recession Highs
• Multiple-Unit Starts Have Regained Pre-Recession Levels
• “Advance” Third-Quarter GDP Growth Likely Will Be Well Below 1.0%, Along with Risk of a September Trade-Deficit Shock

No. 760: September Industrial Production October, 16th, 2015 • Annual Production Growth Collapsed to Recession Levels
• Despite a Quarterly Gain from the July Auto-Production Surge, Third-Quarter 2015 Production Activity Held Below Fourth-Quarter 2014 and First-Quarter 2015
• Recession Should Be Timed from December 2014

No. 759: September Consumer Price Index, Real Retail Sales and Earnings October, 15th, 2015 • Financial Markets Are Starting to Take Note of Faltering U.S. Economic Activity and Perceived Fed Impotence
• Average Weekly Earnings Fell in September for “All Employees,” Both Before and After Adjustment for Inflation
• Monthly Real Retail Sales Rose by 0.26% in September, with Annual Growth Still Signaling Imminent Recession
• September Annual Inflation: 0.0% (CPI-U), -0.6% (CPI-W), 7.6% (ShadowStats)
• Having Pummeled Headline August and September Inflation, Gasoline Prices Are on Track to Boost the October CPI

No. 758: September Retail Sales, Producer Price Index October, 14th, 2015 • Stagnant Nominal Retail Sales Reflected Ongoing Constraints on Consumer Liquidity
• Market Sentiment Increasingly Shifts Towards Renewed U.S. Economic Contraction
• PPI Plunge of 0.54% (-0.54%) Was Muted by Nonsensical Inflation Pressures from Falling Gasoline and Oil Prices

Commentary No.757: August Trade Deficit October, 6th, 2015 • Headline August Trade Shortfall Widened Sharply
• Exacerbated by Declining Oil Prices, Inflation-Adjusted Third-Quarter 2015 Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Showing Since 2007
• Negative Implications for Third-Quarter GDP
• Trade-Flow Distortions from Early-Year Port Labor Disputes Now Appear to Be Worked Through Fully
• Not Reflective of Common Experience, Social Security 2016 COLA Should Be Zero

No. 756: September Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3, August Construction Spending October, 2nd, 2015 • Expectations Shift Towards Recession
• September Payrolls Gained Just 83,000, Net of August Revisions;
Annual Payroll Growth Dropped Below 2.0%, to a 15-Month Low
• September Labor Force Plunged by 350,000, with the
September Unemployment Rate on the Cusp of Rounding Lower by 0.1%
• Yet, Headline Monthly Labor Data Remained Almost Worthless
• September 2015 Unemployment: 5.1% (U.3), 10.0% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats)
• Construction Spending Gain Mostly Reflected Downside Revisions
• Latest Money Supply M3 and Monetary Base Took Unusually Large Hits

No. 755 GDP Revision, Broad Economic Outlook September, 25th, 2015 • Broad Economic Outlook Has Continued to Weaken; More-Difficult Times Loom
• Minimal Revisions Left the Second-Quarter GDP/GDI Story Intact
• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Again Confirmed Stagnant First-Half Economy, Largely Consistent with Reporting of Industrial Production and Real-Retail Sales
• Surging Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Remained Nonsensical

No. 754: August Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Post-FOMC September, 24th, 2015 • Market and Investor Uncertainties Have Followed FOMC Inaction; Rate Hike on Hold Until After the Election?
• Ten-Years into the Collapse, Housing-Industry Depression Continues
• Though off Bottom, New- and Existing-Homes Sales Respectively Are Down by 60% (-60%) and 27% (-27%) from Peak Activity; a Peak-to-Trough Economic Decline in Excess of 25% (-25%) Defines Great Depression
• August Durable Goods Orders Fell Year-to-Year for Seventh Straight Month
• Flat-to-Minus Real Orders Continued Below Peak Activity Seen before Formal Recessions of both 2001 and 2007

No. 753: August Housing Starts, Employment Benchmark, FOMC September, 17th, 2015 • BLS Indicated Overstatement of 2015 Employment Growth, per Benchmarking Detail for March 2015
• Total Nonfarm Payrolls Overstated by 208,000 in March, Private Payrolls Overstated by 255,000
• Corrections to Current and Recent Jobs Reporting to Follow in February 2016
• Housing Starts Activity Now Down by 50% (-50%) from Pre-Recession Peak
• August Starts Continued in a Smoothed Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation
• FOMC Still Cited a Weak Economy in Not Raising Rates, but Real Risks Remain More in the Realm of Systemic Stability

No. 752: Annual Income, Consumer Liquidity, CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, September, 16th, 2015 • Consumer Conditions Are Deteriorating
• 2014 Real Median Household Income Fell by 1.5%, Hitting a Ten-Year Low
• 2014 U.S. Real Median Household Income Fell 2.3% (-2.3%) for Native Born, Rose by 4.3% for Foreign Born
• 2014 Income Variance Measures Held at Historic Extremes
• Down in Second-Quarter 2015, Real Earnings Are on Track for a Flat Third-Quarter
• Monthly Real Retail Sales Rose by 0.26% in August, with Annual Growth Signaling Imminent Recession
• August Annual Inflation: 0.2% (CPI-U), -0.3% (CPI-W), 7.8% (ShadowStats)

No. 751: August Industrial Production, Nominal Retail Sales September, 15th, 2015 • "New" Recession Intensifies
• Studies by Regional Federal Reserve Banks Suggest Recent Economic Weakness Went Beyond Weather Issues
• Industrial Production Quarterly Contractions Deepened in Revision
• First-Half 2015 Production Now Down 1.5% versus Second-Half 2014, As Annual Growth Rates Fall Towards Zero
• Soft August Retail Sales Growth Should Be Mirrored in "Real" Terms, Net of Inflation, Given Likely Flat CPI-U
• Retail Sales Continued Generating a Recession Signal

No. 750: FOMC, Producer Price Index, Household Income September, 11th, 2015 • In a Close Call, FOMC Likely Will Boost Rates, Irrespective of the Weakening Economy
• If Pressures to Delay the Rate Hike Prevail, Markets Likely Face Troubling Questions As to What Really Is Frightening the Fed
• Virtually Unchanged in July, Real Median Household Income Remained Below Its Level at the Formal Trough of the Recession
• Although Unchanged for the Month, Headline PPI Again Was Boosted by Absurd “Mixed” Pressures from Falling Oil Prices

No. 749: August Employment and Unemployment September, 4th, 2015 • However the FOMC Sets Its Policy, It Cannot Be Serious About Relying on Generally Worthless Labor Data
• Month-to-Month Unemployment Comparisons Remained Meaningless, While Some 41,000 Unemployed Were Defined out of Headline Existence
• Likely Downside Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revision Announcement Looms for September 17th
• Full-Time Employment Level Finally Hit Its Pre-Recession High, At Least Temporarily, 16 Months After Payrolls, 4 Years After the GDP
• Continued Flat Construction Employment Did Not Support Unstable, Headline Construction Gains
• August 2015 Unemployment: 5.1% (U.3), 10.3% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats)
• Annual Growth in M3 Money Supply Hit Six-Year High of 6.1%; Monetary Base Is at a 5-Month High

No. 748: July Trade Deficit and Construction Spending, Increasing Income Dispersion September, 3rd, 2015 • Revisions to Trade-Balance Reporting Methodology Indicate Minimally a 3% Historical Understatement of the U.S. Trade Shortfall
• Negative Implications for 2016 GDP Benchmark Revisions
• Narrowing of the Headline July Trade Deficit Had Positive Implications for Third-Quarter GDP Reporting
• Inflation Jump Accounted for Bulk of Gain in July Construction Spending
• Fed Games-Playing and the Employment Report

No. 747: Revised Second-Quarter GDP August, 27th, 2015 • Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Confirmed Stagnant First-Half Economy, Largely Consistent with Reporting of Industrial Production and Real-Retail Sales
• Upside Revision to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Was Unstable and Nonsensical
• Second-Quarter GDP Now Shows Above-Average Economic Growth; Headline First-Quarter Activity Was Stagnant
• GDI Activity Was Stagnant in Both First- and Second-Quarter Reporting
• GDP and GDI Are Theoretical Equivalents and Equally Legitimate Measures of Broad U.S. Economic Activity

No. 746: July Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Market Turmoil August, 26th, 2015 • Financial-Market Turmoil Heralds Likely Systemic Instabilities
• July Durable Goods Orders Fell Year-to-Year for Sixth Straight Month, Irrespective of Considerations for Commercial Aircraft Orders or Inflation
• Flat-to-Minus Real Orders Continued Below the Peak Activity Seen before Both the 2001 and 2007 Formal Recessions
• A Decade of Collapsed Housing Activity: New- and Existing-Homes Sales Still Down Respectively by 63% (-63%) and 23% (-23%) from Pre-Recession Peaks in June/July 2005

No. 745: July CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Recession and the FOMC August, 19th, 2015 • Unfolding “New” Recession Likely Will Override the Impact of Any Fed Action, Inaction or Continued Befuddlement
• Down in Second-Quarter 2015, Real Earnings Are on Track for Third-Quarter Decline
• Monthly Real Retail Sales Rose by 0.4% in July, with Annual Growth Still Signaling Recession
• July Annual Inflation: 0.2% (CPI-U), -0.3% (CPI-W), 7.8% (ShadowStats)

No. 744: July Housing Starts August, 18th, 2015 • Housing Starts Activity Still Is Down 47% (-47%) from Its Pre-Recession High
• July Starts Continued in a Smoothed Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation, Despite Ongoing Volatile Reporting and Upside Revisions
• Difficult to Support an Annualized Quarterly Housing-Starts Surge of 94.8% With an Annualized Quarterly Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) in Related Residential-Construction Employment

No.743: Global Currency Instabilities, Oil Industry, July Retail Sales, Production and PPI August, 17th, 2015 • Artificial U.S. Dollar Surge of the Last Year Has Reflected Faux Economic Strength, Manipulations and a Duplicitous Fed; It Also Has Distorted Global Economies, Financial Markets and Systems
• U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration Has Fallen 55% since Last September, Clobbered by a Strong Dollar and Low Oil Prices
• Headline Production and Manufacturing Bounce in July 2015 Was Helped by Downside Revisions to Already-Contracting Second-Quarter Activity
• July Retail Sales Gain Will Be Softened in Real Terms, Net of Inflation
• Rising Headline PPI Construction Inflation Will Weaken Real Construction Spending Growth
• “New” Recession Continues to Unfold

No. 742: SPECIAL COMMENTARY - A WORLD INCREASINGLY OUT OF BALANCE August, 10th, 2015 • Heavy Flight from U.S. Dollar Remains Likely in Year Ahead; Underlying Perceptions and Fundamentals Already Are Shifting
• Economic Reality Has Begun to Overtake Illusion; No Economic Recovery Is Likely This Decade
• Global Financial, Economic and Political Instabilities Are Pushed to Limits
• Long-Range U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Issues Remain Unresolved
• Gold and Silver Prices Will Explode in Flight from Dollar; Oil Prices Will Spike
• Soaring U.S. Inflation Should Accompany Dollar Demise, Precursor to Domestic Hyperinflation
• Physical Precious Metals Remain Best Inflation Hedge and Store of Wealth, Irrespective of Central Bank Gold-Price Manipulations

No. 741: July Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 August, 7th, 2015 • July Employment Detail Showed a Sub-Par Jobs Gain, with the Internal BLS Payroll-Growth Trend Falling below 200,000 for August
• Suggestions of a Pending Downside Payroll-Benchmark Revision
• Still No Full Recovery for Full-Time Employment
• Flat Construction Employment Did Not Confirm the Reported Construction-Spending Boom
• July 2015 Unemployment: 5.3% (U.3), 10.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• M3 Money Supply Resurgent, July Annual Growth Jumped to 5.6% from 5.2% in June

No. 740: June Trade Deficit, Construction Spending and Consumer Conditions August, 5th, 2015 • June Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Small Downside Revision to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
• “Soft” June Construction Spending Was in Context of Upside Revisions and Rising Inflation
• Consumer Conditions Appear to Be Weakening Anew

No. 739: Second-Quarter GDP and Benchmark Revision, Velocity of Money July, 30th, 2015 • U.S. Economic Activity Was Just Downgraded; Historical GDP Numbers Were Revised Meaningfully Lower; Second-Half 2012 Now Is Shown at Near-Recession
• Post-2007 Economic History Slowly Is Taking on a Revised Pattern of a Multiple-Dip Economic Collapse
• Unfolding “New” Recession Remains Very Much in Play
• Despite Below-Consensus 2.3% Second-Quarter Growth, Benchmarked GDP Level Was Below Prior Reporting for First-Quarter GDP
• First-Quarter GDP Revised to Small Gain from Minor Decline, but Broader First-Quarter GNP Remained in Headline Contraction

No. 738: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales, Household Income July, 27th, 2015 • Complacency on the U.S. Economy and the U.S. Dollar Could Be Shaken in the Week and Month Ahead
• Durable Goods Orders in a Pattern of Intensifying Monthly and Quarterly Year-to-Year Contractions
• Second-Quarter Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) in Steepest Annual Decline Since Economic Collapse
• Second-Quarter New-Home Sales Fell 7.3% (-7.3%)

No. 737: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision, Pending GDP Revisions, Gold July, 23rd, 2015 • Gold-Price Manipulations Likely Were Central-Bank Orchestrated; Underlying Reasons for Holding Gold Remain Basic and Strong
• Revamped Production Fell by 1.0% (-1.0%) in First-Half 2015, Now Down by 0.2% (-0.2%) and 1.7% (-1.7%) Respectively in First-Quarter and Second-Quarter 2015
• Downwardly-Revised Manufacturing Activity No Longer Has Recovered Its Pre-Recession High
• Downside Benchmark Revisions to Industrial Production Locked-In General Downside Revisions to GDP Benchmarking
• New-Home Sales Hit a Post-Recession High but Remained Down by 24% (-24%) from Pre-Recession Peak

No. 736: June CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Earnings July, 17th, 2015 • “New” Recession Remains in Play�a Virtual Certainty� But Broad Recognition of Same Still May Be a Couple of Months Out
• Real Earnings for All Private Employees Plunged in Second-Quarter 2015
• Inflation-Adjusted June Retail Sales Declined by 0.6% (-0.6%); Weakening Annual Growth Signaled Intensifying Recession
• Headline Annual CPI-U Inflation Turned Positive for First Time Since December 2014, Although Actual Annual Inflation Never Turned Negative
• June Annual Inflation: 0.1% (CPI-U), -0.4% (CPI-W), 7.7% (ShadowStats)
• June Housing Starts Remained in a Smoothed Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation, Despite Distorted Jump in Multiple-Unit Starts
• Second-Quarter Housing Starts Surged at an Annualized Pace of 87.4%, While Residential-Construction Employment Rose at an Annualized Pace of 0.5%?

No. 735: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) July, 15th, 2015 • Last Time Industrial Production Activity Was This Weak, The U.S. Economy Was in Collapse
• Second-Quarter Production Contracted at a 1.4% (-1.4%) Annualized Pace, First-Quarter Revised to 0.1% Annualized Gain (Effectively Unchanged)
• Annual Production Growth at Recession Level
• Production Series Subject to Massive Benchmark Revisions Next Week
• Higher Gasoline Prices Dominated June PPI Headline Inflation of 0.36%

No. 734: Nominal June Retail Sales, Financial Turmoil and Gold July, 14th, 2015 • June Retail Sales Generated an Intensifying Recession Signal
• In the Context of Downside Revisions to April and May Retail Sales Activity, the “Unexpected” June Contraction of 0.3% (-0.3%) Should Rattle Expectations
• Rising Inflation Means an Even Greater Decline in Real June Retail Sales
• Mounting Global Financial and Economic Instabilities Suggest a Good Time to Batten Down the Hatches

No. 733: May Trade Deficit, June M3, Systemic Uncertainties July, 7th, 2015 • Mounting Global Instabilities in a System Increasingly Out of Control
• May 2015 Trade Deficit Showed Minimal Deterioration; Advance-June Trade Estimate Should Rattle Second-Quarter GDP
• Headline June Reporting on Production and Retail Sales Also Should Soften GDP Expectations
• Late-Month Jump Pushed June M3 Annual Growth to 5.2%, Up from 5.0% in May

No. 732: June Employment and Unemployment, May Construction Spending July, 2nd, 2015 • June Payrolls (Number of Jobs, Not People with Jobs) Rose by 223,000, But Number of People with Full-Time Employment Dropped by 349,000
• June Payroll Gain of 223,000 Was Just 163,000, Net of a Downside Revision of 60,000 Jobs to Overstated May Payrolls
• Bad News�Drop in Unemployment from 5.5% to 5.3% Reflected 375,000 Unemployed Disappearing from the Labor Force, Instead of Finding Gainful Employment
• June 2015 Unemployment: 5.3% (U.3), 10.5% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Revamped Construction-Spending Series, Net of Headline Inflation, Remained in Low-Level but Up-Trending Stagnation
• Weaker Residential Activity Offset Stronger Nonresidential Activity in Construction-Spending Benchmark Revisions

No. 731: Second Revision to First-Quarter 2015 GDP June, 24th, 2015 • Underlying Economic Reality Is Weak Enough to Pull the Heavily-Gimmicked, Headline GDP into Contraction
• Adjusted for Inflation, First-Quarter GDP Fell by 0.17% (-0.17%); The Broader GNP Measure Fell by 0.98% (-0.98%)
• Before Inflation Adjustment, First-Quarter GDP Fell by 0.23% (-0.23%); The Broader GNP Measure Fell by 1.06% (-1.06%)
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction and Formal “New” Recession Remain Likely

No. 730: May Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales June, 23rd, 2015 • Year-to-Year Decline in New Orders Signals Recession
• Second-Quarter Durable Goods on Track for Annual Contraction, Before and after Inflation and/or Commercial-Aircraft Orders
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Gained in May 2015, But with no Substantive Shift in Activity versus Low-Level Stagnation

No. 729: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Consumer Liquidity, FOMC, GDP June, 18th, 2015 • Further Frustrating Fed Hopes of Raising Rates, U.S. Economy Should Weaken Ahead
• “New” Recession Remains in Play
• Four Months of Flat-to-Down Real Earnings Headed for a Second-Quarter Contraction
• May Retail Sales Gain of 1.21% Was 0.76% After Inflation; Sales Headed for Quarterly Gain; Annual Growth Signaled Recession
• May Annual Inflation: 0.0% (CPI-U), -0.6% (CPI-W), 7.6% (ShadowStats)

No. 728: May Housing Starts June, 16th, 2015

• Greater-Than-Expected Decline in May Housing Starts, but the Highly-Unstable Series Continued Its Smoothed Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation
• Surge in May Building Permits Was Due Entirely to Distortions from Annualized Multiple-Unit Data in the Northeast

No. 727: May Industrial Production and the Produce Price Index (PPI) June, 15th, 2015 • It Still Looks a Lot Like a “New” Recession
• Production Contracted in First-Quarter 2015; Second-Quarter Production Contraction Now Is a Virtual Certainty
• Longest String of No Monthly Growth, and Worst Annual and Quarterly Production Activity Since the Economic Collapse
• May PPI Surge of 0.55% Reflected Some Catch-Up Reporting

No. 726: May Nominal Retail Sales, Mid-Year Review of Current Circumstances June, 11th, 2015 • Broad Outlook Unchanged: Continuing Economic Downturn, Massive U.S. Dollar Problems and Inflation Issues Ahead
• Is Fed in Control of Monetary Policy? Fed Looks to Raise Rates, Irrespective of the Economy
• Trade Deals Usually Reduce U.S. Economic and Employment Activity, More than 5-Million U.S. Jobs Lost So Far
• Strong Nominal Growth in May Retail Sales Will Be Muted Some, In Real Terms, by Surging Headline Inflation
• Annual Retail Sales Growth Still Signaling Recession
• Spate of Positive Economic Numbers Likely Has Ended; Beware Next Week’s Headline Production, Housing and CPI Data

No. 725: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 June, 5th, 2015 • Have the Fed and Uncle Sam Lost Control of the Economic and Monetary Situation?
• Labor Data Were Skewed Heavily by Seasonal-Adjustment Distortions
• Jobs Gains Were Bloated, Headline Unemployment Reporting Simply Was Meaningless
• May 2015 Unemployment: 5.5% (U.3), 10.8% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Money-Supply M3 Annual Growth Slowed to 5.1% in May 2015, from 5.4% in April and February’s 5-Year High of 5.8%

No. 724: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revision, Construction Spending June, 3rd, 2015 • Benchmark Trade Revisions Were Relatively Small; Aggregate Nominal Deficit Deepened by 0.7% (-0.7%) in 2014
• Trade Revisions Put the Lie to GDP-Seasonality Issues
• April Real Deficit Effectively Was Unchanged versus First-Quarter
• Despite Jump in April Construction Spending, Inflation-Adjusted Series Continued Broad Pattern of Stagnation

No. 723: First Revision to First-Quarter GDP, April Household Income May, 29th, 2015 • Inflation-Adjusted, First-Quarter Real GDP Sank by 0.7% (-0.7%); Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal GDP Dropped by 0.9% (-0.9%)
• Reflecting Net-Negative International Flows in Income, Broader Gross National Product Showed Real Decline of 1.4% (-1.4%), Nominal Activity Tumbled by 1.5% (-1.5%)
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired
• Broad Economic Contraction Continues; No Pending Second-Quarter Rebound

No. 722: GDP Reporting Issues, April Durable Goods, New-Home Sales May, 26th, 2015 • The Fed, White House and Wall Street versus the Bureau of Economic Analysis
• While Assessing Seasonality Factors, the BEA Will Not Double-Adjust the GDP
• Headline First-and Second-Quarter GDP Contractions Remain Likely
• Durable Goods Orders Continued Pattern of Down-Trending Activity, with Annual Growth Turning Increasingly Negative
• New- and Existing-Home Sales Continued in Broad Stagnation

No. 721: April CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales, GDP Prospects May, 22nd, 2015 • With Pending GDP Numbers Likely in Contraction, Pollyannaish Analysts and Media Are Squawking over Data Quality
• Bureau of Economic Analysis Promises to "Fix" Wayward GDP
• April Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.1% (-0.1%); Annual Growth Signaled Deepening Recession
• Real Earnings Were Unchanged
• April Year-to-Year Inflation: -0.2% (CPI-U), -0.8% (CPI-W), 7.4% (ShadowStats)
• Revamped Chained-CPI-U Sharply Widened Inflation Understatement, As Hoped for by Some in the Government

No. 720: April Housing Starts May, 19th, 2015 • Headline "Boom" in April Housing Starts Left the Series in Ongoing Stagnation; It Did Not Alter the Broad Outlook
• Annual Revisions Reflected Only Minimal Seasonal-Adjustment Shifts

No. 719: April Production, PPI, Durable-Goods Benchmark, Consumer Update May, 15th, 2015 • It Is Beginning to Look a Lot Like a "New" Recession
• Down in First-Quarter 2015, Industrial Production Just Tumbled into the Second-Quarter
• Longest String of Monthly Production Declines and Worst Annual and Quarterly Activity Since the Collapse
• April PPI Plunge Was Statistically-Warped Nonsense
• Downside Revisions to 2013 and 2014 Industrial Production and GDP Suggested by Benchmark Revisions to Durable Goods Orders

No. 718: April Nominal Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity May, 13th, 2015 • In the Context of Downside Benchmark Revisions, Headline Nominal April Retail Sales Were Unchanged for the Month
• Net of Ongoing Revision Shenanigans in Monthly Seasonal-Adjustments, Nominal April Retail Sales Actually Fell by About 0.4% (-0.4%)
• No Rebound Suggested in Second-Quarter Real Retail Sales
• Slowing Annual Sales Growth Moved Deeper into Recession Territory

No. 717: April Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 May, 8th, 2015 • Weakening Economy Taking Toll on U.S. Dollar
• Labor Data Seriously Flawed and Likely Gimmicked
• April Full-Time Civilian Employment Dropped by 252,000
• Net of Revisions, April Payroll Gain of 223,000 Was 184,000; March Headline Jobs Gain of 126,000 Revised to 85,000
• Decline in Headline April Unemployment to 5.4% Was a Rounding Game, Easing from 5.47% to 5.44%, and Otherwise Not Consistent with March
• April 2015 Unemployment: 5.4% (U.3), 10.8% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual Growth in April 2015 Money Supply M3 Slowed to 5.4%, from 5.7% in March and from February’s 5-Year High of 5.8%

No. 716: March Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Retail Sales Benchmark Revision May, 5th, 2015 • Expectations Should Turn Negative for Revised First-Quarter GDP, Based on Quarterly Trade Deterioration
• Real Construction Spending Contracted with Full First-Quarter Reporting
• Retail Sales Benchmark Revision Showed Deeper Contraction and Slower "Recovery" in Sales Activity than Previously Indicated

No. 715: First-Quarter GDP, Velocity of Money April, 29th, 2015 • Initial 0.2% First-Quarter2015 Real GDP Growth Is on Track for a Quarterly Contraction in First Revision
• Games-Playing: Was Initial Real GDP Estimate Set at 0.2%, So Nominal GDP Would Not Fall Below 0.1%?
• Real Final Sales (GDP Less Purported Inventory Build-Up) Fell at Annualized Quarterly Pace of 0.5%
• Velocity of Money Slowed in First-Quarter 2015

No. 714: March Durable Goods Orders, Median Household Income, New- and Existing-HomeSales April, 24th, 2015 • Both Nominal and Real First-Quarter 2015 GDP Face Contraction, But Headline Downturn May Await the First Revision
• Consensus Forecasts Never Catch Economic Downturns, Yet the Consensus Outlook Is Weighted into the Initial GDP Estimate
• Real Durable Goods Orders Confirmed Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Signaling a Second-Quarter GDP Decline and Formal Recession
• Household Income Declined Sharply in March
• Existing-Home Sales Fell at Annualized 7.2% (-7.2%) Pace in First-Quarter 2015
• Unstable Plunge in New-Home Sales Data Amidst Continued and Protracted Stagnation

No. 713: March CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts, GDP Prospects April, 17th, 2015 • Housing Starts Plunged at Annualized Pace of 31.0% (-31.0%) in First-Quarter 2015
• Real Retail Sales Contracted at 2.0% (-2.0%) Annualized Pace in First-Quarter, Worst Showing Since Depths of Economic Collapse
• Annual Real Sales Growth at Recession Level
• Real Earnings Fell by 0.4% (-0.4%) in March
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: -0.1% (CPI-U), -0.6% (CPI-W), 7.5% (ShadowStats)
• First-Quarter 2015 Real GDP Headed for a Contraction

No. 712: March Nominal Retail Sales, Industrial Production, PPI April, 15th, 2015 • Quarterly Retail Sales and Industrial Production Last Dropped Together in First-Quarter 2009, When Real GDP Contracted 5.5% (-5.5%)
• Nominal Retail Sales Fell an Annualized 5.0% (-5.0%) in First-Quarter 2015; March Annual Growth Was Weakest Since Economic Collapse
• Real Retail Sales Also Locked-In to First-Quarter Contraction
• Pummeled by Declining Manufacturing and Oil and Gas Production,Industrial Production Fell an Annualized 1.0% (-1.0%) in First-Quarter 2015
• First-Quarter 2015 GDP Still on Track for Renewed Downturn
• March PPI Inflation Was Almost Unremarkable

No. 711: Updated Outlook for General Economic Conditions April, 10th, 2015 • Data in the Week Ahead Should Trouble the Financial Markets
• Market Sentiment on the Cusp of a "New" Recession?
• First-Quarter GDP on Track for Worst Contraction Since Depths of the Economic Collapse

No. 710: March Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 April, 4th, 2015 • First-Quarter GDP Contraction Is an Increasingly Solid Bet; Market Sentiment Should Begin Shifting Towards "New" Recession
• March Labor Data Fell Apart on Both the Payroll and Unemployment Fronts
• Net of February Revisions, March Payrolls Gained Just 57,000
• Masked by Rounding, Headline Unemployment Actually Declined by 0.1% (-0.1%), Due to Discouraged Workers Being Defined Out of Headline Existence, Not Due to the Unemployed Finding New Jobs
• March 2015 Unemployment: 5.5% (U.3), 10.9% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Annual Growth in March 2015 Money Supply M3 Eased to 5.6%, from February’s Revised 5-Year High of 5.8%

No. 709: February Trade Deficit, Construction Spending April, 2nd, 2015 • For Purposes of the Initial First-Quarter 2015 GDP Estimate, Growth Will Be Hammered by a Quarterly Widening of the Real Trade Deficit and a Quarterly Downturn in Real Construction Spending

No. 708: Revised Fourth-Quarter 2014 GDP, Real Median Household Income March, 27th, 2015 • GDP Held at 2.22% but Broader GNP Tumbled to 1.36%
• Shifting Global Financial and Economic Distortions Impair Domestic Economic Activity

No. 707: February New Orders for Durable Goods March, 25th, 2015 • Durable Goods Orders in Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions, Both Before and After Consideration of Commercial Aircraft Orders and Inflation
• Signal Is for an Intensified Decline in Production and GDP, in Both First- and Second-Quarter 2015, a Looming Recession

No. 706: February CPI, Home Sales and the Economy, Fed and Dollar March, 24th, 2015 • Headline February Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.8% (-0.8%), Annual Retail Sales Growth at Recession Level
• First-Quarter Real Sales Contracting at 2.6% (-2.6%) Annualized Pace, Worst Showing Since Depths of Economic Collapse
• Real Earnings Were Down for the Month
• February Year-to-Year Inflation: 0.0% (CPI-U), -0.6% (CPI-W), 7.6% (ShadowStats)
• Unstable Home Sales Data - New Sales in Protracted Stagnation, Existing Sales Trending Lower
• Dollar and Fed Policy Begin to Falter

No. 705: February Housing Starts, Consumer Liquidity, GDP Outlook March, 17th, 2015

• First-Quarter GDP Outlook Weakened Further
• February Housing Starts Continued a Pattern of Down-Trending Stagnation
• Collapsing Headline Housing Starts Reflected a Weak Economy, Horrible Weather and the Usual Monthly-Reporting Instabilities
• Primary Economic Toxin Remains Lack of Healthy Consumer Liquidity

No. 704: February Industrial Production, Producer Price Index March, 16th, 2015 • Rapidly Rising Risk of First-Quarter GDP Contraction
• Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; On Track for First Quarterly Contraction Since 2009 Trough of Economic Collapse
• Manufacturing and Motor Vehicle Production Fell for Third Straight Month
• February Production Activity Fell by 0.6% (-0.6%) Ex-Utilities, Headline 0.1% Monthly Gain Was Due Solely to Weather-Distorted Utility Surge
• Nonsense of the Redefined PPI: Rising Oil Prices Both Boost and Reduce Headline Inflation, and So Do Falling Oil Prices

No. 703: February Nominal Retail Sales and U.S. Dollar, Fed and Markets March, 12th, 2015 • Retail Sales Collapse Continued, Both Monthly and Quarterly, Before and After Inflation
• Unusual Monthly Shifts in Seasonal Adjustments Have Masked Headline Monthly Sales Contractions Exceeding 1% (-1%)
• Underlying Economic Data Closing in on Setting a First-Quarter 2015 GDP Contraction
• U.S. Economy Cannot Support Current Dollar and Stock-Market Strength; Political and Market Positioning of Fed Policy Increasingly Is Untenable

No. 702: Trade, Labor, Construction-Spending, Household Income, M3, U.S. GAAP-Accounting March, 6th, 2015 • Sharply Widening Real Trade Deficit Should Pummel First-Quarter GDP Growth
• Nominal January Trade Deficit Narrowed with Collapsing Oil Prices, but Exploded versus Fourth-Quarter Numbers, after Inflation Adjustment
• Add-Factor Biases Boosting Payroll Growth
• Drop in Unemployment Rate Was Due to Unemployed Giving Up Looking for Work, Instead of Finding Work in Surging Employment
• February 2015 Unemployment: 5.5% (U.3), 11.0% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Real Construction Spending Remained in Low-Level, Fluctuating Stagnation; Monthly and Annual Changes Holding Flat
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Jumped to 5.7% in February, Highest Since June 2009
• 2014 Federal Obligations Approached $100 Trillion at Year-End 2014

No. 701: Publication of U.S. Government Financial Statements March, 4th, 2015 • Link to 2014 U.S. Government GAAP-Based Financial Statements

No. 700: Fourth-Quarter 2014 GDP, First Revision February, 27th, 2015 • Downside GDP Revision Reflected Corrections to Excess Inventory Levels
• Downside Revisions Loom for Historic GDP Growth
• First-Quarter 2015 Economic Outlook Is Troubled

No. 699: January CPI, Real-Retail Sales and Earnings, Durable Goods, Home Sales February, 26th, 2015 • First-Quarter Economic Contraction Indicated by Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders
• Headline January Real-Retail Sales Still Fell by 0.1% (-0.1%), On Top of the Monthly Plunge of 0.7% (-0.7%) in the CPI-U
• Home Sales Activity Remained Heavily Stressed
• Unchanged before Inflation, Real Average Weekly Earnings Gain Was Due to Headline Plunge in CPI-W Inflation
• January Year-to-Year Inflation: -0.1% (CPI-U), -0.8% (CPI-W), 7.5% (ShadowStats)
• Average Oil and Gasoline Prices Increased in February

No. 698: Annual Revisions to Seasonally-Adjusted CPI February, 20th, 2015 • Slower Real Economic Activity Signaled by CPI Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions
• Using Intervention Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Shifted Some Gasoline Deflation from Fourth- to Second-Quarter 2014
• Headline Drop in December CPI-U Narrowed in Revision to Minus 0.3% (-0.3%) from Minus 0.4% (-0.4%)

No. 697: January Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Producer Price Index February, 18th, 2015 • Both Production and Housing-Starts Activity Revised Lower in the Fourth-Quarter, and Flattened Out in Initial First-Quarter Estimations
• January 2015 Annual PPI Inflation Fell to Zero, Driven Lower by Falling Oil and Gasoline Prices, Which Have Turned Higher in February

No. 696: January Retail Sales, Slowing Economy February, 12th, 2015 • January Retail-Sales Plunge Is on Track for a First-Quarter Contraction, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment
• The Better-Quality Headline Data are Showing a Marked Downturn in Broad Economic Activity
• Gasoline and Oil Prices Appear to Be Bottoming

No. 695: Payroll-Employment Revisions – Corrections to Inconsistent Reporting February, 10th, 2015 • Consistent and Corrected BLS Payroll-Employment Data Are Available Here to ShadowStats Subscribers
• Highly Volatile Inconsistencies in Payroll Reporting
• Comparable with January 2015 Payroll Reporting, November Jobs Gain Was 340,000, Not the Headline 423,000
• Similar Quality Issues Plague Unemployment Data

No. 694: January Payrolls, Employment and Revisions February, 6th, 2015 • Payroll Benchmark Revision Nonsense— Altered and Inflated by Affordable Care Act Considerations?
• Upside-Bias Factor for Annual Payrolls Increased by 161,000 to 892,000
• Extreme Instability Apparent in New Headline Payrolls
• January Household Survey Numbers Not Comparable with Headline December Detail
• January 2015 Unemployment:5.7% (U.3), 11.3% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Jumped to 5.3% in January, Highest Since July 2009

No. 693: December Trade Balance, Construction Spending February, 5th, 2015 • Trade Deficit Deteriorated Sharply for the Month, the Quarter and the Year, Both Before and After Accounting for Inflation and Oil Prices
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Already Reflected Some of the Trade Hit; Further GDP Deterioration Is Likely
• Oil Imports Rose and Oil Exports Fell in the Context of Declining Oil Prices
• Real Construction Spending Continued in Stagnation

No. 692: SPECIAL COMMENTARY February, 2nd, 2015 • 2014 � A Year of Market Hype, Manipulation, Intervention and Misdirection
• 2015 � A Year of Reckoning, Economic Turmoil, Dollar Panic and Hyperinflation
• Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Have No Way Out as Dangers from the Panic of 2008 Persist
• Global Financial, Economic and Political Instabilities Are Pushed to Limit
• Economic Reality versus Illusion: No U.S. Recovery or Boom Is in Place; No Economic Recovery Is Likely This Decade
• Extreme U.S. Fiscal Imbalances Unresolved
• U.S. Dollar Remains in Great Peril; Underlying Perceptions and Fundamentals Already Are Shifting
• Low Oil Prices Would Prove Fleeting with Dollar Plunge
• Soaring U.S. Inflation Should Accompany Dollar Demise in 2015, Leading to Domestic Hyperinflation
• Gold and Silver Prices Will Explode in Flight from Dollar; Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains Best Store of Wealth

No. 691: Advance Estimate of Fourth-Quarter 2014 GDP, Velocity of Money January, 30th, 2015 • Slower Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Faces Likely Heavy-Downside Revisions
• Headline GDP Growth Was Statistically Insignificant; Economic Reality Remains Ongoing Stagnation and Contraction
• Money Velocity Slowed Slightly

No. 690: December Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Consumer Liquidity January, 27th, 2015 • Durable Goods Orders Contracted in Fourth-Quarter 2014, Both Before and After Commercial-Aircraft and Inflation Considerations
• Existing-Home Sales Declined in Fourth-Quarter 2014
• Trend of Unstable New-Home Sales Reporting Continued in Stagnation
• Consumer Liquidity Stresses Still Pummeling Residential Real-Estate Activity and Consumer Spending

No. 689: December Housing Starts, Special Comments on the Economy January, 21st, 2015 Recession? Strongest Growth in Over a Decade? Not a Chance.
• Continued Economic Woes Promise Difficult Times for the U.S. Dollar and the Fed
• Unstable December Housing Starts Continued Stagnating
• In Aggregate and by Component, Not One of the Monthly or Annual Rates of Change in the Starts Detail Was Statistically Significant

No. 688: CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Swiss Franc January, 16th, 2015 • Major Crack in U.S.Dollar Facade, as Swiss Franc Breaks Free and Gold Rallies
• Headline December Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.6%; Annual Growth at Traditional Recession Level
• Unchanged before Inflation, Real Average Monthly Earnings Rose 0.5% Entirely Due to Decline in Headline CPI-W Inflation
• December Year-to-Year Inflation: 0.8% (CPI-U), 0.3% (CPI-W), 8.4% (ShadowStats)
• Decline in PPI Inflation Muted by Offsetting Pressures from Oil-Price Plunge
• December Industrial Production Notched Lower

No. 687: December Retail Sales January, 14th, 2015 • Weakest Since 2008 Economic Collapse, Plummeting Holiday Retail Sales Reflected Liquidity-Restrained Consumers
• December Sales Plunged by a Statistically-Significant 0.9% (-0.9%), Down by 1.4% (-1.4%) before Prior-Period Downside Revisions
• Monthly Sales Contraction Will Hold in Real Terms, Net of Inflation, Despite Falling Gasoline Prices
• Annual Growth Again at Traditional Recession Level

No. 686: December Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 January, 9th, 2015 • Revisions to Unemployment Seasonal-Adjustments Demonstrated Concurrent-Seasonal-Factor Reporting Issues
• Payroll and Unemployment Data Both Heavily Skewed by Unstable and Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• December Unemployment Rates: 5.6% (U.3), 11.2% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Jumped to 5.2% in December, Highest Since July 2009

No. 685: November Trade Deficit, Construction Spending January, 7th, 2015 • Trade Deficit Shifts to Neutral Impact on Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth, Had Contributed 0.8% Growth to Third-Quarter GDP
• Real Construction Spending in Down-Trending Stagnation since Late-2013
• Some Surprises to December Labor Data?

No. 684: GDP Revision, November Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales December, 23rd, 2014 • Booming GDP - Strongest Growth in More than a Decade Is Nonsense
• Magnitude of GDP Revisions Suggests Unstable Data and Unusual Internal-Reporting Issues at Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Basic Durable Goods Orders Slowed Sharply in Third-Quarter 2014, On Track for Fourth-Quarter Contraction
• Home Sales Also Showed Patterns of Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

No. 683: November CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings December, 17th, 2014 • November Annual Inflation: 1.3% (CPI-U), 1.1% (CPI-W), 9.0% (ShadowStats)
• Using Exaggerated Drop in Gasoline Prices, BLS Generated Headline CPI-U Monthly Decline of 0.3% (-0.3%), Instead of 0.2% (-0.2%)
• Real Retail Sales Growth Was Distorted Heavily by Inconsistent Handling of Seasonal Adjustments for Gasoline Prices and Sales by BLS and Census Bureau
• If Recent Retail Sales and CPI Reporting Are to Be Believed, Consumers Have Used the Bulk of Gasoline-Price Savings to Buy More Gasoline
• Up for the Month, General Pattern of Headline Real Earnings Remained Stagnant
• Unusual Economic Reporting in Week Ahead

No. 682: November Housing Starts December, 16th, 2014 • Headline November Housing Starts Fell Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year Amidst Ongoing Unstable Revisions
• Smoothed for Extreme Reporting Volatility, Aggregate Housing Starts Show Pattern of Plunge and Low-Level Stagnation, No Economic Recovery

No. 681: November Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) December, 15th, 2014 • Scheduled for Second-Quarter 2015, Meaningful Benchmark Revisions to Industrial Production Could Be Unusually Large and to the Downside
• November Industrial Production Jump Encompassed Utilities Surge, Widespread Manufacturing Gains, and Declining Oil and Gas Production
• Utilities Output Spiked by Unseasonably-Cold Weather
• Seasonal Adjustments and Revisions Remain Serious Issues
• Significance of Headline Wholesale Inflation Is Muddled In Terms of Real-World Activity

No. 680: November Retail Sales, Financial-Market Distortions December, 11th, 2014 • November Retail Sales Gain Boosted by Spurious Seasonal Adjustments,0.5% of 0.7% Headline Sales Gain Tied Just to Gasoline-Seasonality Issues
• Irrational Markets Continue as Great Dollar Calamity Nears

No. 679: Labor Numbers, Trade Deficit, Household Income and Construction Spending December, 6th, 2014 • Widening Fourth-Quarter Trade Deficit Should Hit GDP Growth Hard
• October Median Household Income in Continued Low-Level Stagnation
• Full-Time Employment Is 2.4 Million Shy of Pre-Recession Peak
• Headline Unemployment Really Increased by 0.1%, But Gain Was Hidden in Rounding Details
• November Payroll and Unemployment Data Heavily Skewed Again By Volatile and Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• November Unemployment Rates: 5.8% (U.3), 11.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Downtrend in Inflation-Adjusted Construction;Annual Growth Turned Negative in September and October
• November Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Surged to Five-Year High

No. 678: October Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales, November Consumer Conditions November, 26th, 2014 • No Economic Boom in Durable Goods Orders or Housing Activity
• Real Durable Orders Goods Set Early Pace of Flat-to-Down Activity for Fourth-Quarter 2014
• New-Home Sales Revised Lower in Third-Quarter; October Broad Sales Activity Remained Stagnant
• Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Remain at Levels Consistent with Historical Recessions

No. 677: Third-Quarter 2014 GDP, First Revision November, 25th, 2014 • Gross Domestic Product Upside Revision Was Nonsense
• Initial Gross Domestic Income Reporting Suggested Major Revision Shenanigans that Boosted Headline GDP
• Underlying Reality Remains Down-Trending Stagnation in Broad Economic Activity

No. 676: October CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales November, 20th, 2014 • October Annual Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
• Inflation Held at 1.7% for Third Month, Despite Tumbling Oil Prices That Reduced CPI-U by 0.5%
• Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Fell Back to Recession Level, Amidst Suggestions of Much-Slower Fourth-Quarter Activity
• Third-Quarter GDP Headline Growth of 3.5% Should Revise to Below 2.5%; Fourth-Quarter GDP Activity Fair Bet for Outright Contraction
• Existing-Home Sales Gained 1.5% for the Month, 2.5% Year-to-Year, But Fell 3.7% in the Trailing 12 Months of Activity

No. 675: October Housing Starts, PPI November, 19th, 2014 • October Housing Starts Indicated Fourth-Quarter Contraction
• PPI Headline Inflation of 0.2% Reflected Peculiarities of New Reporting Approach
• October PPI Will Dampen Real Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods and Construction Spending

No. 674: October Industrial Production November, 17th, 2014 • Unexpected Production Decline Was on Top of Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth Dropped to Six-Month Low
• Implied Fourth-Quarter Production Pace Slowed Sharply
• Continued Contractions in, and Downside Revisions to, Auto Production Should Hammer Inventory and Third- and Fourth-Quarter-GDP Estimates

No. 673: October Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity, Updated Hyperinflation and DollarRisks November, 14th, 2014 • October Retail Sales Were Near Consensus, with Minimal Revisions and A Sharply-Slowing Pace of Fourth-Quarter 2014 Growth
• Negative Surprises on the Economy and in the Political Arena Are Among Imminent Top Threats to U.S. Dollar

No. 672: October Labor Data, Money Supply M3, Federal Deficit, Election 2014 November, 9th, 2014 • October’s Labor Numbers Skewed by Seasonal-Factors Distorted by Last Year’s Government Shutdown
• Resulting Understated October 2014 Unemployment Rates: 5.8% (U.3), 11.5% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Election Polling Again Indicated No Economic Recovery, With Pocketbook Issues Dominating the Voting - New Proprietary Analyses
• GAAP-Based 2014 Federal Deficit Was About $6 Trillion, Versus Headline Cash-Based $0.5 Trillion Shortfall
• 2014 Net Federal Obligations Approached $100 Trillion, GAAP-Based, Net Present Value
• Reporting Shenanigans: Headline Deficit Well Shy of Jump in Debt
• Fed Monetized 78% of Headline 2014 Federal Deficit
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Held at 4.2%

No. 671: September Trade Deficit and Construction Spending November, 4th, 2014 • The Happy News Begins to Falter
• Third-Quarter GDP Growth Faces Downside Revision, Given Deteriorating September Trade and Construction Reporting
• Trade Deficit Widened Sharply
• Quarterly Construction Spending Growth Turned Negative from Positive
• Risk of Unexpectedly Weak October Payrolls
• Craziness in the Financial Markets Cannot Prevail, Assumed Underlying Reality Is Not There or Will Prove Fleeting

No. 670: Third-Quarter 2014 GDP, Money Velocity October, 30th, 2014 • Happy Election-Eve Numbers!
• GDP up by 3.5% (+/- 3.5% Range of Reporting-Confidence), Boosted by Guessed-At Trade Numbers and Resurgent Defense Spending
• Significant Downside Revisions Loom for Third-Quarter Growth
• End of Declining Velocity of Money
• Disappointing October Jobs Growth?

No. 669: September Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales October, 28th, 2014 • Broad Weakness in September Durable Goods Orders
• New-Home Sales Remained Stagnant, Despite Nonsensical Reporting Volatility
• Expanding Scope of Data-Falsification Issues at the Census Bureau?

No. 668: September CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, New-Home Sales, Prospective GDP October, 23rd, 2014 • U.S. Government Prepares to Use Reduced-Inflation Index for Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA)
• 2015 Social Security COLA at 1.7% Would Have Been 9.4% without Existing Gimmicks for Understating Inflation
• September Annual Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
• September Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.4%
• September Real Earnings Fell by 0.4%
• Existing-Home Sales Headline Gain Dominated by Surge in Distressed Properties; Year-to-Year Sales Contracted for Eleventh Straight Month
• Real-World Indication of Faltering Third-Quarter Economic Activity

No. 667: September Housing Starts, Prospective Third-Quarter GDP October, 17th, 2014 • Third-Quarter 2014 Economic Growth Slowed Sharply
• Long-Term Stagnation in Housing Starts Continued at Low Level of Activity
• Social Security COLA Should Notch Slightly Higher from Last Year’s Adjustment, Remaining Far Shy of Common Experience

No. 666: September Industrial Production October, 16th, 2014 • Third-Quarter Production Growth Slowed Sharply
• Falling Auto Production in September More than Offset by Defense Industry Output, Oil and Gas Production and Weather-Related Utility Surge

No. 665: September Retail Sales, PPI October, 15th, 2014 • September Retail Sales Declined, August and September Activity Revised Lower and Third-Quarter Broad Growth Slowed Sharply
• Unstable Seasonal Factors Helped Push Headline PPI Lower

No. 664: Market and Economic Instabilities October, 10th, 2014 • Broad U.S. Economy Is Not Growing
• Sharp Deterioration Likely Will Continue in Domestic and Global Financial-Market, Economic and Political Stability
• Confluence of Crises: U.S. Economy, Stocks and Dollar

No. 663: September Labor and Monetary Conditions, August Trade Deficit & Construction Spending October, 3rd, 2014 • No Recovery in Actual Business Activity
• Pre-Election Nonsense in Labor Numbers
• Congress Addresses Data Falsification in Unemployment Survey
• September Unemployment Rates: 5.9% (U.3), 11.8% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Fed’s Monetary Policy Propped Stocks
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Fell to 4.3% in September
• Trade Data Were Positive, Construction Spending Was Neutral for Third-Quarter GDP

No. 662: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP — Third Estimate September, 26th, 2014 • GDP Has Fully Reestablished Itself as the Most Worthless of Economic Series
• Fluff and Guesstimates Dominated the Upside GDP Revision
• Monthly Economic Reporting Should Turn Increasingly Negative

No. 661: “False Dawn,” Hyperinflation, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales September, 25th, 2014 • A “False Dawn” It Is
• Hyperinflation Forecast Remains in Play
• Stock Crashes versus October Residual-Squirrelling Instincts
• Durable Goods Orders Crashed 18.0% (-18.0%), Reversing July’s 22.2% Surge, Dominated Again by Irregular Commercial-Aircraft Orders
• Down for the Month, August Existing-Home Sales Were in Tenth Month of Annual Decline
• August New-Home Sales Surge of 18.0% Was Statistically-Insignificant

No. 660: Economic Review, August Housing Starts, Payroll Benchmark Revision September, 18th, 2014 • New Graphs Show Smoothed Housing Trends
• Housing Starts Stagnant at Low Level of Activity, Never Recovered, Not Recovering
• Payroll Employment Benchmark Revision Was Nil (Plus 7,000)
• Longer-Term Economic Detail Shows Ongoing Collapse, Shorter-Term, Pre-Election Fluff Has Been Mixed
• Why Is the Dollar Stronger and Gold Weaker

No. 659: August CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings September, 17th, 2014 • With Some Double-Counting, Sharp Declines in Headline Inflation Boosted Monthly Real Retail Sales and Earnings
• An Issue with Consistent Measurement of Gasoline Prices?
• August Annual Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
• Outlook Weakened for 2015 Social Security COLA

No. 658: Annual Income Survey, August PPI September, 16th, 2014 • Still No Relief Pending for the Economy or the Financial System
• Changes in 2013 Real Median Household Income and Income Dispersion Were Not Statistically Significant
• Stagnant Real Median Income Held at Post-Recession Low, Down 8.0% from Pre-Recession Peak, Lowest Since 1994, Below Levels of Late-1960s and Early-1970s
• Income Variance Held at Historic High, Suggestive of Still-Greater Economic and Financial Crises Ahead
• August Annual PPI Inflation Notched Higher

No. 657: August Industrial Production September, 15th, 2014 • August Production Decline Was on Top of Downside Revisions to July Activity
• Plunge in Auto Manufacturing Highlighted Poor-Quality Seasonal Adjustments and Difficulties in Inventory Accounting

No. 656: 2013 Consumer Expenditures, August Retail Sales, Gold September, 12th, 2014 • U.S. Economy Re-Entered Recession in 2013, Indicated by the BLS’s Annual Consumer Expenditure Survey
• 2013 Total Money Income Fell Even Before Inflation Adjustment
• Physical Gold, a Life Preserver That Could See Action Soon
• Day-to-Day Timing of a Great Financial Disaster Is a Tough Call, But the Alarm Bells Are Sounding
• Strong Headline Retail Sales Gain Was Not Statistically Significant

No. 655: August Payroll Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 September, 5th, 2014 • Payroll Jobs Growth Faltered in Context of Unusual Seasonal Factor Shifts
• August Unemployment Rate: 6.1% (U.3), 12.0% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Downward Notch in Unemployment Rate Reflected Further Loss of Labor Force, Not the Unemployed Gaining Employment
• U.3 Rate Was Less than 979 Unemployed People Shy of Holding at 6.2%
• August 2014 Civilian Employment Still Shy of Pre-Recession Peak
• August Money Supply M3 at 4.6% Annual Growth

No. 654: July Median Household Income, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending September, 4th, 2014 • Neither Economic Boom nor Recovery Is Underway; Fundamentals Are Not in Place to Fuel or to Support Such a Circumstance
• Latest Median Household Income Reading Confirmed Severely Impaired Consumer and Economy
• Trade Deficit Continued to Widen Year-to-Year Despite Prior-Period Revisions and Unusual Seasonal Factors
• Net of Inflation, Construction Spending Surge Was Stagnation

No. 653: First Revision to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP August, 28th, 2014 • Economic Bluff and Bluster versus Reality, Politics and Elections
• Minimal Upside Revision to Second-Quarter GDP Left Gimmicked Growth Even More Heavily Overstated
• Underlying Reality Remains a Severely Impaired Consumer and Economy
• Monthly Economic Series to Turn Increasingly Negative

No. 652: July 2014 Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales August, 26th, 2014 • 22.6% Gain in July Durable Goods Orders Was Just 0.8%, Net of an Irregular 318.0% Surge in Commercial-Aircraft Orders
• Booked Years in Advance, Commercial-Aircraft Orders Have Negligible Impact on Near-Term Economic Activity
• July Existing-Home Sales in Ninth Month of Annual Decline
• July New-Home Sales Held in Pattern of Stagnation, Amidst Ongoing Reporting Instabilities

No. 651: July 2014 CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Monetary Base August, 19th, 2014 • Real Retail Sales Contracted for Second Month, Signaled Deepening Recession
• Real Earnings and Retail Sales Both Fell Below Second-Quarter Levels
• July Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 1.9%% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)
• Monetary Base Explodes to Record High
• Quality of Housing-Starts Reporting Sinks to New Low

No. 650: July 2014 Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) August, 18th, 2014 • Production Report Showed Somewhat Weaker Second-Quarter Activity Amidst Unusual Revision Patterns
• Construction Inflation Surged in the July

No. 649: July 2014 Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity August, 13th, 2014 • Headline July Retail Sales Were Boosted to �Unchanged,� Thanks to Downside Prior-Period Revisions
• Net of Inflation, Real July Sales Likely Fell for Second Month
• Real July Sales Were Below Second-Quarter Average
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired

No. 648: June 2014 Trade Balance, Monetary Conditions August, 6th, 2014 • Despite Narrowing in June Trade Deficit GDP Growth Remains Subject to Trade-Related Downside Revision
• Monetary Base at All-Time High
• Pace of Fed Monetization at 91% Year-to-Date 2014
• July M3 Annual Growth at Five-Year High of 4.7%

No. 647: July Employment and Unemployment, June Construction Spending August, 1st, 2014 • Minimally Weaker-Than-Consensus Labor Numbers� Unremarkable Except for the Regular, Horrendous Reporting Quality
• July Unemployment: 6.2% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Construction Spending�Stagnation with a Recent Downside Bias
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble

No. 646: Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, GDP Benchmark Revisions, Household Income July, 30th, 2014 • Second-Quarter GDP Surge Not Credible, Significant Downside Revisions Remain in Offing
• Actual Economic Activity Remains in Serious Trouble
• Historical GDP Revised Lower Where Better Data Were Available and Revised Higher Where Better Numbers Were Not

No. 645: June Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales July, 25th, 2014 • Despite Durable Goods Orders Turning Lower Year-to-Year, General Pattern Showed Ongoing Stagnation
• In Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to Prior Months, June 2014 New-Homes Sales Fell Month-to-Month,
Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year

No. 644: Pending GDP Reporting and Revisions July, 23rd, 2014 • Unhappy Surprises in Pending GDP Numbers
• Look for Downside Revisions to GDP Growth of Recent Years, Including First-Quarter 2014
• Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Should Surprise Market Expectations Sharply on the Downside
• Headline Second-Quarter Contraction Likely by September 26th Revision

No. 643: June CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing-Home Sales July, 22nd, 2014 • Quarterly Consumer Inflation of 3.0% at Three-Year High
• Inflation Wiped Out Headline Gain in June Retail Sales
• Real Earnings Fell for Third Straight Month
• June Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.8% (ShadowStats)
• Existing-Home Sales Fell Year-to-Year for 8th Straight Month
• Negative Surprises Likely in Next Week�s GDP Reporting and Revisions

No. 642: June Housing Starts July, 17th, 2014 • Second-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Fell Below Fourth-Quarter Activity,
With a June Contraction and Downside Revisions to April and May

No. 641: June Industrial Production, Producer Price Index July, 16th, 2014 • Shifting Production Detail Indicated Still Weaker First-Quarter GDP, Suggested Slowing Second-Quarter Inventory Growth (a GDP Negative)
• Volatile PPI Resumed Upswing in Inflation Reporting

No. 640: June Retail Sales July, 15th, 2014 • Net of Inflation, Headline Real June Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Although Real Retail Sales Appear to Have Gained in Second Quarter; Contracting Second-Quarter GDP Outlook Remains Intact

No. 639: Review of the Deepening Economic and Pending U.S. Dollar and HyperinflationCrises July, 11th, 2014 • Outlook Continues for Massive U.S. Dollar Sell-Off, Pending Hyperinflation
• U.S. Economy on Track for Downside Shocks that Could Roil Markets and Provide Political Cover for Reinvigorated Quantitative Easing
• Fed Has Monetized 76% of Net Issuance of Publicly Held Treasury Debt, Since January 2013 Expansion of QE3; Pace of Fed Monetization at 88% Year-to-Date 2014

No. 638: June Labor Data, May Trade Deficit, Construction and Median Household Income July, 3rd, 2014 • Payroll Gains Were Bloated by Seasonal-Factor Shenanigans;
Unemployment Numbers Remained Inconsistent, Not Comparable Month-to-Month
• June Unemployment: 6.1% (U.3), 12.1% (U.6), 23.1% (ShadowStats)
• Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• Trade Deficit Should Hammer Second-Quarter 2014 GDP, Subtracting In Excess of 1.0% from Initial Headline Growth Estimate
• Revisions to Real Construction Spending Showed Further Downside to First-Quarter GDP; May Detail Suggested a Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth

No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales June, 25th, 2014 • Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize �Renewed� Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant

No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts June, 17th, 2014 • When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth

No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) June, 16th, 2014 • Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place

No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions June, 12th, 2014 • May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt

No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 June, 6th, 2014 • Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May

No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity June, 4th, 2014 • New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate

No. 631: Revised First-Quarter GDP May, 29th, 2014 • It�s the Consumer, Not the Weather!
• Weakening Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boost Gold
• First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Fell by 1.0%;Gross National Product Tumbled by 2.1%; Gross Domestic Income Dropped by 2.3%
• Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.3%
• Pending Trade Data and Revisions Should Help to Set Negative Tone for Second-Quarter GDP and the GDP Benchmark Revision

No. 630: April Durable Goods Orders May, 27th, 2014 • Defense Orders Dominated April Headline Gain in Durable Goods
• New Orders Activity Continued in General Pattern of Stagnation
• Emerging Recessionary Patterns

No. 629: April New- and Existing-Home Sales, Revised GDP Contraction? May, 23rd, 2014 • First-Quarter GDP Contraction in Next Week�s Revision?
• First Contemporary Reporting of a GDP Contraction Since the Formal 2007 Recession
• Despite Minimal and Statistically-Insignificant Headline Monthly Gains, Annual Contractions Continued for Both New- and Existing-Home Sales

No. 628: April Housing Starts May, 16th, 2014 • Housing-Starts Activity Remained Stagnant
• 13.2% Headline Gain in Starts Was in Normal Range of Volatility and Not Statistically Meaningful
• �Renewed� Broad Economic Downturn Continues to Unfold

No. 627: April CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings May, 15th, 2014 • Headline Reporting Showed Weakening Economy with Rising Inflation
• April 2014 Production Plunged 0.6%, Real Retail Sales Fell 0.2%, Real Earnings Down 0.1%
• Production Drop Reflected Some Reporting Catch Up
• Soft Sales and Earnings Pummeled by Inflation
• April Annual Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.7% (ShadowStats)

No. 626: April Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity May, 13th, 2014 • CPI-Adjusted April Retail Sales Likely Contracted
• Increasingly Unstable Retail Sales Reporting, Despite Recent Benchmarking
• Impaired Consumer Liquidity Continues to Constrain Consumption

No. 625: March Trade Deficit May, 6th, 2014 • Negative Quarterly Trade Estimate Locked-In, No Implied Revision to Flat GDP Reporting

No. 624: Employment and Unemployment, Construction Spending, Retail-Sales Benchmark, M3 May, 2nd, 2014 • April Unemployment Numbers Showed Deepening Economic Disaster
• Unemployed Dropped by 733,000, but Employed Dropped by 73,000, and Labor Force Fell by 806,000
• February-to-April Payroll Jobs Gains Were Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• April Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.3% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Revised Retail Sales Growth Was Slower 2011-to-Date; Downside Corrections to Prior GDP Reporting Loom in July
• Construction Spending Remained Stagnant
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 4.0% in April

No. 623: First-Quarter 2014 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) April, 30th, 2014 • Not Annualized, First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.03%
• Annualized GDP Change of Plus 0.1% Was Minus 1.0%,
Net of Questionable Healthcare Spending
• Headline Weakness in GDP Reflected Consumer Liquidity Problems, Not Weather; Adverse Weather Had Offsetting Impacts

No. 622: March Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales April, 24th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Durable Goods Order Contracted at
Annualized Quarterly Pace of 7.2%
• First-Quarter New-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 9.8%,
Down by 3.2% Year-to-Year
• First-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 24.8%,
Down by 6.6% Year-to-Year

No. 621: March Housing Starts, Industrial Production April, 16th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Housing Starts Contracted at Annualized Pace of 30%, Down by 4% Year-to-Year
• February-March Production Jump Ran Counter to Weak Durable Goods Orders
• Fair Shot at First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction

No. 620: March CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings April, 15th, 2014 • First-Quarter 2014 Real Retail Sales Contracted at Annualized Pace of 1.6%
• Unadjusted March CPI-U Inflation of 0.6% Was Squashed to 0.2%, Hit Hard by Seasonal Adjustments for Third Month
• March Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.4% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Real Average Hourly Earnings Dropped 0.3% in March, But Average Weekly Earnings Rose by 0.6%

No. 619: March Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity April, 14th, 2014 • First-Quarter Retail Sales Contracted Net of Likely Inflation
• Shifting and Unreported Seasonal Factor Changes Boosted Headline Numbers in Advance of the Annual Benchmark Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Structurally Impaired

No. 618: March Producer Price Index April, 11th, 2014 • March PPI Jumps Unexpectedly in Its Unstable Restructuring
• Updated PayrollEmployment Trend and Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments

No. 617: SPECIAL REPORT: 2014 ShadowStats Hyperinflation Report � Second Installment April, 8th, 2014 • Economic Reality versus Illusion: No Recovery, Just Plunge, Stagnation and Renewed Plunge
• Re-Intensifying Downturn Already Underway
• Confluence of Negative Surprises, Including New Business and Systemic Woes, Should Hit U.S. Dollar and Spike Inflation
• Hyperinflation to Intensify Unfolding Depression
• Gold as a Store-of-Wealth and Safe-Haven Remains Primary Hedge for Maintaining Purchasing Power of Wealth and Assets

No. 616: March Employment and Unemployment April, 4th, 2014 • March Payroll Jobs Increase of 192,000 Was Bloated Heavily by Concealed and Constantly-Shifting Seasonal Adjustments
• Payroll and Unemployment Numbers Remain of Horrendous Quality, Generally Not Comparable With Earlier Reporting
• March Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.7% in March

No. 615: February Trade Deficit and Construction Spending April, 3rd, 2014 • Trade-Deficit Deterioration Should Hit First-Quarter GDP Growth Hard
• Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Track for Worst Quarterly Showing Since Fourth-Quarter 2012
• February Construction Spending Showed Ongoing Stagnation

No. 614: SPECIAL COMMENTARY (Revised No. 587 of January 7, 2014) April, 2nd, 2014 • Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Asset

No. 613: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision March, 28th, 2014 • Incomplete and Inadequate, Minimal Revisions to Industrial Production Left Negative Economic Outlook Intact
• Aggregate Net Upside Revision of 0.3% to Series Was in Context of Some Activity Being Shifted from Early-2012 into Late-2012, 2013
• Usual New Information for 2012 Was �Unavailable�

No. 612: GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales March, 27th, 2014 • Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise;
First-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains Likely
• Real Durable Goods Orders on Track for 9.0% Annualized First-Quarter Contraction
• New Deflated and �Corrected� Durable Goods Series Confirm No Recovery
• New Homes Sales Down Year-to-Year for Second Month, Pattern Not Seen Since Series Trough in 2011

No. 611: February Median Household Income, Existing-Home Sales March, 20th, 2014 • It�s the Lack of Liquidity, Not the Weather
• Median Household Income Continued Its Low-Level Stagnation
• For Second Consecutive Quarter, Existing-Home Sales Are Plummeting at Nearly a 25% Annualized Pace

No. 610: February CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts March, 18th, 2014 • Strongest Recession Signal Since Eve of the Economic Collapse
• Real Retail Sales on Track for 4% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• Housing Starts on Track for 34% Annualized Plunge in First-Quarter 2014
• For Second Month, Unadjusted Monthly 0.4% CPI Inflation Was Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• February Annual Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Earnings Down 0.2% in February

No. 609: February Industrial Production, PPI March, 17th, 2014 • February Production Effectively Was Stagnant, Net of Continued Unseasonable Weather Effects
• For Third Month, Strong PPI Goods Inflation Was Offset by Weak Services Inflation
• Last Three Months of PPI Inflation Annualized to 5.1% for Goods (Traditional Series) Versus 0.7% for �Final Demand� Goods and Services (New Series)

No. 608: February Retail Sales March, 13th, 2014 • February Retail Sales Rose by 0.27%, But that Was After a 0.41% Downward Revision to January’s Sales
• Sales Are on Track for Annualized 2.5% First-Quarter Contraction, Before Inflation Adjustment
• Shifting Seasonal Factors Appear to Be Boosting Headline Retail Growth

No. 607: February Employment and Unemployment, January Trade March, 7th, 2014 • Payroll Jobs Increased by 175,000, but the Number Employed Rose by 42,000; Neither February 2014 Statistic Was Meaningful
• Deliberate Misreporting Showed December Payrolls up by 84,000, Where 67,000 Was the Consistent Number
• February Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 12.6% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• January Trade Data Hint at Troubled First-Quarter GDP
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Rose to 3.5% in February

No. 606: Preliminary U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2013 Fiscal Conditions March, 6th, 2014 • 2013 GAAP-Based U.S. Deficit Was About $6.2 Trillion

No. 605: Global Political Risks, January Construction Spending March, 5th, 2014 • Global Political Tensions Offer Increased Risk of U.S. Dollar Sell-Off
• Minimal January Gain in Construction Spending Was Not Significant; Inflation-Adjusted Series Remained Stagnant

No. 604: GDP Revision, GAAP-Based Federal Accounting February, 28th, 2014 • Third-Quarter GDP Downside Revision Was Consistent with Same Reports Signaling a First-Quarter 2014 Contraction
• Renewed Economic Downturn Would Balloon the Budget Deficit
• 2013 GAAP-Financial Reporting for U.S. Government Published; Fiscal Conditions Remain a Disaster

No. 603: January Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales February, 27th, 2014 • Durable Goods Orders in Downturn
• Statistically Indistinguishable from January 2013, January 2014 �5-1/2 Year High� in New-Home Sales Still Was 65% Below Pre-Recession Peak
• At 1-1/2 Year Low, Existing-Home Sales Fell Sharply� Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year�37% Below Pre-Recession High

No. 602: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings February, 20th, 2014 • Strongest Signal for a Recession Since September 2007
• January Real Retail Sales Activity Plunged by 0.6% for the Month
• Unadjusted Monthly January 0.4% CPI Inflation Squashed to 0.1% by Seasonal Adjustments
• January Annual Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)

No. 601: January Housing Starts, PPI February, 19th, 2014 • Unstable Housing Starts Showed a Corrective Plunge in January
• January PPI Inflation Was Capped by the Service Sector

No. 600: January Industrial Production February, 14th, 2014 • Downside Restatement of Recent Economic Activity Continues
• January Production Drop Was More than Bad-Weather Effects
• First-Quarter 2014 GDP Contraction and Downside Revision to Third-Quarter GDP Growth Increasingly Are Likely

No. 599: January Retail Sales, Liquidity, Late Detail from Jobs Revision February, 13th, 2014 • Retail Sales Plunge Reflected Consumer Liquidity Issues More than Bad Weather
• Pattern of Collapsing Economic Activity Seen in Revisions
• Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments Already Skewing Jobs Revisions

No. 598: January Employment, Unemployment and Employment Benchmark Revision, M3 February, 8th, 2014 • As With December, January�s Small Headline Jobs Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• Annual Upside Bias in the Birth-Death Model Increased by 140,000, Despite Last Year�s 119,000 Overstatement of Jobs Growth
• Spurious Revisions Used to Spike Payroll Employment Levels
• Renewed Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments and New Population Controls Make Comparisons of Monthly Unemployment Detail Meaningless
• January Unemployment: 6.6% (U.3), 12.7% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Slowed to 3.0% in January

No. 597: December Trade Deficit, Construction Spending February, 6th, 2014 • December Trade Deterioration Could Knock 0.6% off GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Gain Was Insignificant in December, Even with Large Downside Revisions to November and October

No. 596: Fourth-Quarter 2013 GDP January, 30th, 2014 • Particularly Unreliable Economic Data
• 2013 Annual GDP Growth Slowed to 1.9% from 2.8% in 2012
• Growth Bloated by Continuing Excess-Inventory Build-Up

No. 595: Fed Policy, Household Income, Durable Goods, Home Sales, Money Supply Revisions January, 28th, 2014 • Seen Again: U.S. Dollar Has Lost Safe-Haven Status
• Ongoing Fed Tapering Likely to Stall, Reverse
• Money Growth Shows Mounting Systemic Stress
• December New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders Hit by Corrective, Broad-Based Pullbacks and Downside Revisions
• December Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Low

No. 594: December Existing-Home Sales January, 23rd, 2014 • Not Quite as Rosy as the Headlines, Fourth-Quarter Existing-Home Sales Crashed at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 27.9%
• December and November Existing-Home Sales Hit 14-Month Low
• Home Sales Declined Year-to-Year for a Second Month

No. 593: December Industrial Production and Housing Starts January, 17th, 2014 • Production Gain Indicated Intensifying Inventory Problem
• December Housing Starts Pulled Back from November Nonsense; Minimal Year-to-Year Growth of 1.6% Was Statistically Insignificant

No. 592: December CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings January, 16th, 2014 • Inflation Picks Up as the Economy Slows Down
• December Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.1% in Industry�s Flagship Month of December; Slowing Annual Growth Signaled Recession
• Real Weekly Earnings Declined in December

No. 591: December Producer Price Index and Redefined PPI Series January, 15th, 2014 • December Headline PPI Surged 0.4% in Current Reporting, Up by Just 0.1% Based on What Will Be the New Series Next Month
• New and Expanded PPI Tends to Show Lower Inflation Amidst Higher Oil Prices
• The Old PPI Series Has the Better Leading Relationship to CPI

No. 590: December Retail Sales, Updated Consumer Liquidity Indicators January, 14th, 2014 • Statistically-Insignificant 0.2% Gain in December Retail Sales Likely Was Flat-to-Down Net of Inflation
• December Activity Was Below Initial November Reporting With Earlier Numbers Revised Lower
• Annual Sales Growth Continued Its Signal for �New� Recession
• Consumers Constrained by Severe Structural Liquidity Problems

No. 589: December Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 January, 10th, 2014 • Jobs Loss or Jobs Gain, Either Is Possible Within the Reporting-Confidence Interval Around December Payrolls
• Revisions Show Headline Unemployment Changes Are Meaningless
• December Unemployment: 6.7% (U.3), 13.1% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year Growth Slows in December M3

No. 588: November Trade, Construction Spending, Revised Unemployment January, 8th, 2014 • Plunge in Oil Imports Narrowed the Trade Deficit; Data Were Positive for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• November Construction Gain Was Statistically Insignificant, Yet, Earlier Numbers Were Revised Higher
• Revised Headline Unemployment Due on January 10th

No. 587: HYPERINFLATION 2014�THE END GAME BEGINS January, 7th, 2014 • Extremely Difficult Circumstances in the Year Ahead: Confluence of Economic and Systemic Crises Should Intensify
• With Global Confidence in Dollar Rattled by Uncontrollable Fiscal and Monetary Excesses, U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Have Limited Options to Address Panics
• Heavy Selling of U.S. Dollar Remains Likely Proximal Trigger for Inflation Pick-Up
• Developing Hyperinflation Would Push Ongoing Recession into Deep Depression
• Physical Gold Remains Primary Hedge for Preserving Wealth and Assets

No. 586: November Durable Goods Orders, New-Home Sales December, 24th, 2013 • Pattern of Stagnation Continued for Durable Goods Orders
• November New-Home Sales Reporting Remained Unstable

No. 585: Fed Policy, Gold, Economic Review, Existing-Home Sales, GDP Revision December, 20th, 2013 • Fantasy Third-Quarter GDP Boom � Likely a Function of Impaired Data Gathering and Compilation
• Aberrant Spate of �Strong� Government Numbers in November � Similarly Impacted by the Government Shutdown
• November Existing Home Sales Fell Below Year-Ago Level
• Minimal �Tapering� Sets Stage for New Fed Chairman, Does Not Alter General Outlook
• Gold Remains Primary Hedge in the Year Ahead

No. 584: Residential Construction: Catch-Up Reporting on Housing Starts December, 18th, 2013 • November Housing Starts Surge Was Nonsense�a Reporting Aberration� As Indicated by Building Permits
• Stagnating/Declining Housing Activity Otherwise Remained Intact

No. 583: November Consumer Price Index, Real Retail Sales and Earnings December, 17th, 2013 • Year-to-Year Inflation Rose in November, Despite Weak Monthly Numbers
• November Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.1% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Gained 0.6% in November; Recession Signal Remained Intact
• Consumers Constrained by Real-Earnings Issues

No. 582: November Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI) December, 16th, 2013 • Strong Monthly Production Was in the Context of Slowing Annual Growth
• Despite Being a Coincident Indicator to GDP, Headline Production Just Topped Pre-Recession High for First Time, Lagging GDP by 11 Quarters
• Corrected for Understated Inflation, Production Has Not Recovered
• Producer Price Index Decline Reflected Lower Energy Prices

No. 581: November Retail Sales, Budget Agreement, Fed Policy December, 12th, 2013 • No Effort to Address Long-Range Solvency Issues of the United States in Budget-Deficit Agreement
• Consumers Remain Strapped by Structural Liquidity Issues Despite Gain in November Retail Sales

No. 580: November Labor Data and M3, October Household Income December, 6th, 2013 • Real Household Income Falls Slightly in October, Remaining Near Cycle-Low
• Shutdown Effects on October Labor Data, and Misreporting of Same, Are More than Reversed in Headline November Numbers
• Resulting Seasonal-Factor Distortions Weigh Heavily on Data Significance; Current Headline Labor Numbers Have Little Meaning
• November Unemployment: 7.0% (U.3), 13.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)

No. 579: First Revision to Third-Quarter 2013 GDP December, 5th, 2013 • �Booming� GDP Growth Not Reflected in Any Other Major Economic Indicator
• Involuntary Inventory Build-Up Spiked GDP Revision; Final Sales (GDP Less Inventory Change) Growth Revised to 1.9% from 2.0%
• Revised Headline Growth in Third-Quarter GDP Was Reported at 3.6%; GNP Was 3.9%; But GDI (the Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Was 1.4%
• Another Set of GDP Revisions in Two Weeks

No. 578: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, New Home Sales December, 4th, 2013 • No Signs of a Growing Economy
• Intensifying Weakness in Revised Third-Quarter Trade and Construction Data Should Soften Third-Quarter GDP Growth
• Construction Spending Falters Despite Statistically-Insignificant October Gain
• New Home Sales Monthly Data Are Nonsense, Extreme Volatility and Revisions Leave Monthly Changes Meaningless

No. 577: 2013 Federal Deficit - Cash versus GAAP, Durable Goods Orders November, 27th, 2013 • Irrespective of Gimmicked Narrowing of 2013 Cash-Based Federal Deficit, GAAP-Based Deficit Remains Uncontrolled and Uncontained
• Commercial Aircraft Orders Led Decline in Durable Goods Orders

No. 576: Residential Construction, Consumer Confidence November, 26th, 2013 • Building Permits Showed No Recovery
• Consumer Confidence Declined Again in November

No. 575: Economic Review, October PPI November, 21st, 2013 • October PPI Was Hit by Lower Energy Costs
• Imminent Official Recession Signaled by New Leading Indicator
• Broad Economy Never Recovered from Prior Downturn

No. 574: October CPI, Retail Sales, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing Home Sales November, 20th, 2013 • Watch Out for the Dollar
• October Annual Inflation: 1.0% (CPI-U), 0.8% (CPI-W), 8.5% (ShadowStats)
• Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant; Recession Signal Remained Intact
• Official Real Earnings Declined in October
• Existing Home Sales Declined for the Month; Annual Growth Slowed Markedly

No. 573: October Industrial Production and Money Supply, September Trade Balance November, 15th, 2013 • Production Activity Suggestive of Pending �New� Recession
• Trade Data Should Dampen Growth in Next GDP Revision
• October M3 Annual Growth at 4.4%
• Reflecting Recent Surge in Treasury Borrowings, Fed Has Monetized 75% of Net Issuance of Publicly-Held Federal Debt, Since January 1st

No. 572: October Employment and Unemployment November, 8th, 2013 • Large Shift in August-October Period Seasonal Adjustments
Bloated Latest Payroll Reporting
• Loss of Long-Term Unemployed from Headline Labor Force
Boosted Alternate Unemployment Rate to New High
• Government-Shutdown Impact on October Unemployment Reporting
Masked by Misclassification and Seasonal-Adjustment Fiasco
• October Unemployment: 7.3% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 23.5% (ShadowStats)

No. 571: Third-Quarter GDP, Money Supply Velocity, September Household Income November, 7th, 2013 • Error Margin Around GDP Growth of 2.8% Includes Zero
• GDP Gain Dominated by Involuntary Inventory Build-Up
• Third-Quarter M3 Velocity Was Stable; M2 Velocity Declined
• September Household Income Remained Near Cycle Low

No. 570: Economic Review, September CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings October, 30th, 2013 • Real Retail Sales Fell 0.3% Month-to-Month in September
• Official Data Indicate Slowing/Stagnating Third-Quarter GDP
• CPI-Based Social Security COLA Would Have Been Same With Chained-CPI
• September Annual Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 1.0% (CPI-W), 8.8% (ShadowStats)

No. 569: Consumer Liquidity, September Retail Sales, PPI October, 29th, 2013 • Retail Sales Contraction Should Deepen After Inflation Adjustment
• PPI Pulled Lower by Plunging Food Prices?
• Real Durable Goods Orders Show No Economic Recovery

No. 568: September Industrial Production October, 28th, 2013 • Production Jump Was Due to Irregular Surge in Utilities Usage
• Economy Remains in Stagnation/Renewed Downturn

No. 567: Hyperinflation Update, Durable Goods, Trade Deficit October, 25th, 2013 • Hyperinflation in 2014
• Trade Data Should Have Negligible Impact on Initial Third-Quarter GDP Estimate
and on Expectations for Same
• Durable Goods Orders Remained Stagnant (Ex-Commercial Aircraft), Consistent with Renewed Economic Downturn
• BLS Will Count Furloughed Government Employees as Unemployed in Household Survey, but as Employed in Payroll Survey

No. 566: September Employment/Unemployment, August Construction Spending, October, 22nd, 2013 • Weakening Trends Seen in Payrolls and Home Sales
• October Payroll Loss of Roughly 400,000 Remains Likely
• September Unemployment: 7.2% (U.3), 13.6% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Rising Costs Boosted Construction Spending

CORRECTED No. 565: Fiscal Crisis�Dollar Debasement October, 18th, 2013 • Debt-Ceiling Concept Remains in Place After February 7th
• Chances Are Nonexistent for Meaningful Government Action to Address Issues of Longer-Range U.S. Sovereign Solvency
• General Economic Outlook Has Deteriorated
• Watch the Dollar!

No. 564: Government Negotiations, Labor Conditions, Consumer Credit and Sentiment October, 11th, 2013 • Estimated Headline U.3 Unemployment Rates: 7.3% in September, 7.6% in October, versus August Actual of 7.3%
• Estimated Headline Payroll Changes, or Jobs Gains/Losses: 181,000 Gain in September, 430,000 Loss in October, versus August Gain of 169,000
• Consumer Credit and Sentiment Show Deteriorating Consumer Liquidity Circumstances

No. 563: Fiscal and Systemic-Liquidity Crises Update October, 4th, 2013 • No More Tap Dancing on a Land Mine, The Administration Pulls Out a Couple of Hammers
• Message to the Global Markets: Long-Range Solvency Issues of the United States Will Not Be Addressed
• Stagnant in September, Monthly M3 Suggests Deepening Systemic-Liquidity Distress; Annual Growth in Monetary Base Rising at Fastest Pace Since 2008 Crisis

No. 562: Shutdown of the Federal Government October, 1st, 2013 • Renewed Battle Over U.S. Sovereign Solvency
• President�s Working Group on Financial Markets Likely in Play
• Government Economic-Reporting Shutdown Excludes Data from Privately-Owned Federal Reserve

No. 561: Payroll Benchmark Revision, August Household Income, Revised Second-Quarter GDP September, 26th, 2013 • Bad Numbers? Just Change the Reporting Methodology!
• Economic �Growth� Created by Statistical Redefinitions, Not by Consumer or Business Demand
• 2013 Benchmark Payroll Employment Revision of Minus 124,000 Changed to Plus 345,000 with Redefinitions by BLS
• GDP Revision Was No More Than Statistical Noise
• Annual GDP Growth Has Slowed to Typical Pre-Recession Levels
• Household Income Remained Stagnant, Near Cycle Lows

No. 560: August Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales September, 25th, 2013 • Durable Goods Orders Activity Stagnated in August
• Despite Statistically-Insignificant Upside Blip, New-Home Sales Continued in Renewed Contraction

No. 559: Hyperinflation Update, FOMC September, 19th, 2013 • Fed Is Trapped In the End Game for the U.S. Dollar
• Panic of 2008 Still Is Playing Out
• Hyperinflation Forecast Remains in Place

No. 558: 2012 Household Income, August Housing Starts September, 18th, 2013

• At An 18-Year Low, 2012 Real Median Household Income Was Below Levels Seen in 1968 through 1974
• 2012 Income Variance Hit Record High,Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Systemic Instabilities That Led to 2008 Crisis Still Have to Be Worked Through
• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn or Stagnation

No. 557: August CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings September, 17th, 2013 • Liquidity Constraints Impair Consumption, Prevent Recovery
• Poverty Report Confirmed Falling Household Income
• Year-to-Year �Core� CPI Inflation in Upswing
• August Annual Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)

No. 556: August Industrial Production, FOMC Meeting September, 16th, 2013 • Production Activity Remained Consistent with Renewed Economic Downturn
• Neither Banking-System nor Economic Developments Suggest Fed �Tapering,�
But Heavily-Managed Market Expectations Indicate Near-Term Action

No. 555: August Retail Sales and Producer Price Index September, 13th, 2013 • Below-Consensus Retail Sales Activity Continues, With Growth Due to Rising Inflation Not to Rising Demand
• Producer Price Index Gain Still Shy of Full Oil-Price Impact

No. 554: August Employment and Unemployment, M3 September, 6th, 2013 • August Labor Conditions Showed a Deteriorating Economy
• Instead of Being Matched Happily with Rising Employment, Falling Unemployment Reflected a Shrinking Labor Force with Declining Employment
• Payroll Boost of 169,000 was 95,000 Net of Revisions
• August Unemployment: 7.3% (U.3), 13.7% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Slowed Markedly in August

No. 553: July Trade Deficit, Construction Spending September, 4th, 2013 • July Trade Data Remain in State of Flux
• Reported Gain in July Construction Spending Was Not Statistically Significant
• Brief Update on New Liquidity Numbers
• A Spurious Payroll-Data Blip for August?

No. 552: GDP Revision, Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Updates August, 29th, 2013 • GDP Revision Reflected Previously Discussed Trade-Flow Distortions
• Well Removed from Real-World Activity, GDP Numbers Remain Nonsensical; There Never Was a Recovery and There Is None Pending
• With Consumer Liquidity Issues Deepening, Broad U.S. Economic Activity Is in Renewed Contraction
• Fed Pullback on QE3 Remains Unlikely, Amidst Suggestions of Intensifying Banking-System Stress

No. 551: July New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales August, 26th, 2013 • In Ongoing Stagnation, Durable Goods Orders Are Suggestive of Pending Downturn
• New-Home Sales Are in Renewed Contraction
• Existing-Home Sales Jump But Remain of Questionable Quality

No. 550: July Housing Starts, U.S. Fiscal-Policy Issues, Updated Outlooks August, 16th, 2013

• Housing Starts Continued in Renewed Downturn
• Outlook Is Increasingly Bleak for Second- and Third-Quarter Economic Growth, Irrespective of GDP Reporting Nonsense
• Fiscal-Policy Issues Come to the Fore in September

No. 549: July CPI, PPI, Nominal and Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production, RealEarnings August, 15th, 2013 • No Economic Recovery Here
• Industrial Production on Brink of Showing Formal New Recession
• For Second Month, Rising Retail Sales Reflected Rising Prices,
Not Rising Consumer Demand
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Fell for Third Month and Year-to-Year
• July Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.6% (ShadowStats)

No. 548: June Trade Balance August, 6th, 2013 • Unusually Large Reduction in June Trade Deficit Likely Reflected Port of New York Disruptions
• Headline Trade Deficit Will Add Upside Pressure to First Revision of Second-Quarter GDP Growth

No. 547: July Employment and Unemployment, M3, June Construction August, 2nd, 2013 • July Jobs Gain and Unemployment Decline Were Not Meaningful
• Payroll Boost of 162,000 was 136,000 Net of Revisions
• July Unemployment: 7.4% (U.3), 14.0% (U.6), 23.3% (ShadowStats)
• Construction Spending Remained Stagnant
• Annual M3 Growth Picked Up Slightly

No. 546: GDP and Revisions, Mounting Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Issues August, 1st, 2013 • Federal Reserve Monetization Hits 103.4% of Net U.S. Treasury Debt Issuance in 2013
• Redefined GDP Moved Ever Further from Real-World Experience, Beset by Expanded Inflation Shenanigans
• Second-Quarter GDP Reflected Patterns of Sharply Slowing Activity

No. 545: June Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Pending GDP Revisions July, 25th, 2013 • New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Exaggerated by Downside Revisions, Changes Otherwise Were Statistically Insignificant
• Irregular Surge in Commercial Aircraft Orders Dominated Monthly Gain in Durable Goods Orders
• GDP Reporting and Revisions Could Offer Some Downside Surprises

No. 544: June Housing Starts, Economy, Updated Summary Outlook July, 17th, 2013 • Second-Quarter Housing Starts Plunged at Annualized Quarterly Rate of 31.2%, Dimming the Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP
• Economic Growth Otherwise Has Slowed in Second-Quarter 2013
• Immigration Legislation Would Exacerbate Serious Economic and Fiscal Issues Facing the United States

No. 543: June CPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings July, 16th, 2013 • Slowing Growth with Rising Inflation
• Real Retail Sales and Real Earnings Contracted in June
• Annualized Quarterly Production Growth Slowed to 0.59% from 4.23%
• June Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.8% (CPI-U), 1.8% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)

No. 542: June Retail Sales July, 15th, 2013 • June Retail Sales Gain Reflected Little More Than Rising Inflation

No. 541: June Producer Price Index, Consumer Credit, Seasonal Adjustments July, 12th, 2013 • Annual June PPI Inflation Hit 15-Month High of 2.5%
• 0.8% Monthly PPI Jump Reflected Reversal in Negative Seasonals for Energy
• Consumer Credit Growth Still Limited to Federal Student Loans

No. 540: Updated No. 539 July, 8th, 2013 • With Fed Monetization of Treasury Debt at 90.5%, Money Supply Growth Patterns Suggest Banking-System Stress
• Using Consistent Seasonals, June Payrolls Rose About 160,000
• Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
• Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
• Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 247,000
• June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)

No. 539: June Employment and Unemployment July, 5th, 2013 • Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
• Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
• Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 247,000
• June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)
• Payroll Gains Were Warped Heavily by Inconsistent Seasonal Factors

No. 538: May Trade and Construction Spending July, 3rd, 2013 • May Trade Deterioration Will Be A Drag on Second-Quarter 2013 GDP Growth
• Construction Benchmark Suggests Downside Revisions to 2012 GDP

No. 537: Gold Price and Market Instabilities June, 30th, 2013 • Central Banks Dumping U.S. Treasuries at Fastest Pace Since 2011 Budget Crisis
• Market Turmoil Reflects Shifting Sentiments and Systemic Distortions
• Underlying Fundamentals for Gold and Silver Remain Extremely Strong
• Gold Remains the Most-Solid Hedge Against Looming Dollar and Inflation Crises

No. 536: Gold, GDP Revision, June, 26th, 2013 • May Household Income Remained Stuck Near Cycle Low�No Recovery
• Unusually Large GDP Revision So Late in Cycle Could Be Suggestive of Pending Benchmark Impact
• Fed Policies Should Intensify Market Reactions to Economic Surprises

No. 535: Fed Jawboning, May Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales June, 25th, 2013 • Irregular Surge in Commercial Aircraft Sales Generated Bulk of Gain in Durable Goods Orders
• Single-Unit Housing Starts, New- and Existing-Home Sales Down Respectively
by 67.1%, 65.7% and 28.7% from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Five-Year High in Confidence Still Is in Recession Territory

No. 534: May CPI, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Systemic Solvency June, 18th, 2013 • Fed�s Expanded QE3 Has Monetized 78.4% of the Concurrent Increase in Treasury Debt
• Relationship of Post-2008 Monetary Base Activity to Broad Money Supply
• May Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.4% (CPI-U), 1.2% (CPI-W), 9.0% (ShadowStats)
• Real Retail Sales Still Signal Broad Economic Downturn
• Second-Quarter Housing Starts on Track for Quarterly Plunge

No. 533: May Industrial Production and PPI June, 14th, 2013 • Weakening Economy and Rising Inflation Should Become the Trend
• Contraction in Second-Quarter Production Suggested by Faltering Numbers
• Headline PPI Jumped 0.5% with Shifting Seasonal-Factor Distortions

No. 532: Market Instabilities, May Retail Sales, Consumer Liquidity June, 13th, 2013 • Market Instabilities Suggestive of Nearing, Hyperinflation End Game
• Monthly Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant; Recession Signal Intact
• Consumer Liquidity Remains Heavily Impaired

No. 531: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3, June, 8th, 2013 • Monthly Changes in Employment and Unemployment Remain Meaningless; Economic Recovery Remains an Illusion
• May Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Slows to Six�Month Low

No. 530: Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revision, Money Supply, Construction Spending June, 4th, 2013 • Benchmarked Trade Deficit Generally Worse Than Previously Estimated; Revisions Should Alter Quarterly Growth Patterns in 2012 GDP
• Surging Monetary Base and Slowing M3 Signal Banking-System Woes and No Quick End to QE3
• Construction Spending Continued Pattern of Stagnation; Benchmark Revisions Loom

No. 529: Retail Sales Benchmark Revision May, 31st, 2013 • Annual Retail Sales Revised Lower by 0.43% in 2011 and 0.22% in 2012

No. 528: First Revision to First-Quarter 2013 GDP May, 30th, 2013 • 1.5% GNP versus 2.4% GDP Reflected Net-Debtor Nation Status of United States
• First-Quarter Economic Growth Remained Statistically Insignificant
• Real Disposable Income Contracted Even Adjusted for Year-End Dividend Surge and Renewed Payroll Tax Withholdings
Renew

No. 527: SPECIAL COMMENTARY Update on U.S. Fiscal, Monetary, Economic Conditions and Outlook for U.S. Dollar, Gold and Silver May, 29th, 2013 • $25 Million Shy of New Debt Ceiling, U.S. Treasury Holds $16.1 Billion, About One Day�s Worth of Regular Operating Cash
• Since Onset of Expanded QE3, Fed Has Monetized 73% of Net Public Treasury Debt Issuance, Should Hit 100% by Mid-July
• Fed Locked into Quantitative Easing for Foreseeable Future by Economic Woes, Banking System Difficulties and Treasury Borrowing Problems
• Narrowed Budget Deficit Forecasts Reflect One-Time Accelerated Tax Receipts, �Dividend� Payments and Overly-Optimistic Assumptions, Economic and Otherwise
• Developing Washington Scandals Could Impair U.S. Dollar
• General Outlook Has Not Changed

No. 526: April Durable Goods and Revisions, Home Sales May, 24th, 2013 • Revised Durable Goods Orders Showed a Weaker �Recovery�
• Home Sales Remained Stagnant

No. 525: April CPI, Housing Starts May, 17th, 2013 • Inflation Remains Very Much a Threat
• April Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 0.9% (CPI-W), 8.7% (ShadowStats)
• CPI Decline Boosted Real Retail Sales, Re-Intensifying Recession Still Signaled
• April Housing Starts Showed Statistically-Significant Plunge

No. 524: April Industrial Production, PPI May, 15th, 2013 • April Production Sinks Below First-Quarter 2013 Average
• PPI Hit Again by Oil and Seasonal Adjustments
• Overly Optimistic Assumptions Understate Budget-Deficit Problems

No. 523: April Retail Sales, U.S. Dollar May, 13th, 2013 • April Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically-Insignificant, Annual Growth Still Signaled Intensified Economic Downturn
• Dollar Fundamentals Remain Abysmal

No. 522: Federal Debt Limit, State-by-State Unemployment, Consumer Credit May, 9th, 2013 • Federal Debt Ceiling Suspension Only Goes through May 18th
• State-by-State ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Measure Ranges from 8.0% in North Dakota to 35.4% in Nevada, California at 30.8%

No. 521: April Employment and Unemployment, M3 and Monetary Base May, 3rd, 2013 • Employment and Unemployment Data Were Nonsense:
The Economy Remains in Serious Trouble
• April Unemployment: 7.5% (U.3), 13.9% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Annual M3 Growth Holds at 4.3%, Monetary Base at 14.7%

No. 520: March Trade Deficit and Construction Spending May, 2nd, 2013 • March Trade Report Puts Upside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Construction Spending Appears to Be Turning Down, Again

No. 519: First-Quarter 2013 GDP, Median Household Income April, 26th, 2013 • 2.5% GDP Gain Was Statistically-Insignificant,
• Ongoing Stagnation and Renewed Downturn Are the Underlying Reality
• Official Recovery Is Not Supported by Underlying Numbers
• Median Household Income Remained Structurally Impaired in March

No. 518: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Monetary Base, April, 24th, 2013 • First-Quarter Durable Goods Orders Contracted at 1.6% Annualized Pace
• Home Sales Activity Constrained by Consumer Liquidity Woes
• GDP Revision Games
• Monetary Base Tops $3 Trillion

No. 517: Gold Update, March CPI, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, April, 17th, 2013 • Gold Strength Has Been Fundamental, Not Speculative, and Unavoidable Fundamentals Promise Much Higher Gold Prices
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.5% (CPI-U), 1.3% (CPI-W), 9.1% (ShadowStats)
• March Real Retail Sales Fell by 0.25%; Annual Real Growth Signaled Intensifying Downturn
• March Production Gain of 0.4% was 0.1% Loss, Net of Unseasonable-Weather Boost to Utilities
• March One-Unit Housing Starts Fell 4.8%, in Low-Level Stagnation, Multiple-Unit (Apartment) Starts in Recovery

No. 516: March Retail Sales and PPI, Gold April, 12th, 2013 • Despite Concerted Central Bank and Wall Street Efforts to Tarnish Gold, Gold Does Not Tarnish; It Remains the Primary Hedge Against Looming Fiscal Fiasco and Dollar Debasement
• March Retail Sales Delivered a Traditional Recession Signal
• March PPI Hammered by Energy-Price-Suppressing Seasonal Factors

No. 515�PUBLIC COMMENT ON INFLATION MEASUREMENT AND THE CHAINED-CPI (C-CPI) April, 8th, 2013 • Consumer Price Index Has Been Reconfigured Since Early-1980s So As to Understate Inflation versus Common Experience
• This is an update to last year’s Public Comment and incorporates content provided to subscribers in recent Commentaries.

No. 514: March Employment and Unemployment, M3 Money Supply, February Trade Balance, Construction Spending, Consumer Credit April, 6th, 2013 • March Unemployment and Employment Counts Both Dropped by 200K-Plus,
Signaling Intensifying Economic Contraction
• March Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats)
• M3 Continues to Slow as Monetary Base Pushes to Record $3.0 Trillion
• February Trade Deficit and Construction Suggestive of Continuing Economic Stagnation

No. 513: Individual Income and Investments, GDP Revision, February Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales March, 28th, 2013 • Even the Modest Headline CPI-U Inflation Is Troubling for Flagging Personal Income and Investments
• Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates Remained Statistically Insignificant
• Patterns of Low-Level Stagnation Continued in Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales

No. 512: Budget Proposals, Industrial Production Revisions, March, 25th, 2013 • Revised Industrial Production Shows Somewhat Shallower �Recovery�
• Suggestions of Downside Revisions in Headline GDP Growth From Third-Quarter 2010 to Date
• Signs of Mounting Stress in Existing Home Sales

No. 511: February 2013 Housing Starts March, 19th, 2013

• Housing Starts Appear to Be Stagnating Anew

No. 510: February 2013 CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Production March, 15th, 2013 • Budget-Deficit Negotiations Purportedly Revert Back to Using Fraudulent Reductions to CPI Inflation
• Topping Expectations, Monthly Inflation Hit 0.7% for Both PPI and CPI-U
• February Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 1.9% (CPI-W), 9.6% (ShadowStats)
• Retail Sales Gained 0.4%, Instead of 1.1%, Adjusted for Headline Inflation
• Pending Downside Production Benchmark Revisions Are Likely, Despite February�s Gain

No. 509: February 2013 Retail Sales March, 13th, 2013 • Beyond Incorporating Significant Inflation February Retail Sales Gain Ran Counter to Evidence of Slowing Real Activity

No. 508: Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply, Consumer Credit March, 8th, 2013 • Reflecting Ongoing, Seriously-Flawed Reporting, Neither the Jobs Gain Nor the Unemployment-Rate Decline Was Meaningful
• February Unemployment: 7.7% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Consumer Credit Outstanding Remained Stagnant, Net of Federally-Held Student Loans
• Slowing Growth in M3 Suggests Mounting Systemic Stress, As Monetary Base Continues to Soar

No. 507: Gold & the DJIA, January Trade, Construction, Median Household Income March, 7th, 2013 • The Dow Retook Its October 2007 High on March 5th; Gold Was Up by 115% for the Same Period
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates Anew
• Inflation-Adjusted Construction Spending Shows No Recovery
• Structural Consumer Liquidity Issues Continue to Constrain Economic Activity.

No. 506: Revised GDP, January Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales February, 28th, 2013

• Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision from 0.1% Contraction to 0.1% Growth Was Just Statistical Noise at Already Insignificant Levels
• Official Double-Dip Recession Should Be Clocked from Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• Ongoing Year-to-year Contractions in Real Durable Goods Orders Signal Renewed Economic Downturn

No. 505: January CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Existing Home Sales, February, 21st, 2013 • Real Earnings Fall Year-to-Year
• January Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.5% (CPI-W), 9.2% (ShadowStats)
• Aside from Not Measuring Constant-Standard-of-Living Inflation, The Chained-CPI Is Too Unstable for Setting Cost-of-Living Adjustments
• Outlooks Unchanged for Ongoing Economic and System-Liquidity Crises and for
Inflation Crisis to Develop in Year Ahead

No. 504: January 2013 Housing Starts, PPI and PPI and CPI Revisions February, 20th, 2013 • January 2013 Housing Starts 61% Below High of January 2006
• Annualized January PPI Headline Inflation of 2.5% Was 7.1%, Before Seasonal-Adjustment Muting
• Revised Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation Data Suggestive of Instabilities in Monthly Headline Reporting

No. 503: January 2013 Industrial Production February, 15th, 2013 • Annual Production Growth in January Slowed to Pre-Recession Levels
• Monthly Production Decline Was In the Context of Continued Volatile and Unstable Reporting
• Production Benchmark Revision in March Should Show Weaker Activity Than Previously Estimated

No. 502: January 2013 Retail Sales February, 13th, 2013 • Retail Sales Continued to Stagnate, Reflecting Intensifying Structural Liquidity Issues for the Consumer

No. 501: December 2012 and Annual Trade Balance, Consumer Credit February, 8th, 2013 • Little Changed for the Year, 2012 U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit Still Reflected Cumulative Loss of 6.6 Million Jobs
• December Trade Reporting Suggested Upside Contribution to First Revision of Fourth-Quarter GDP
• New ShadowStats Graph of Consumer Credit Outstanding

No. 500: SPECIAL COMMENTARY U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2012 Financial Data February, 5th, 2013 • GAAP-Based Federal Budget Deficit Hit Record $6.6 Trillion in 2012
• Five-Year Average Annual Shortfall at $5.2 Trillion
• With U.S. Facing Mortal, Long-Range Solvency Issues, Hyperinflation Remains a Virtual Certainty

No. 499: January Labor Data and Revisions, M3 and December Construction Spending February, 2nd, 2013 • Positive Benchmark Revision to Payrolls Overstates Current Circumstance
• Annual Upside-Bias in Birth-Death Model Increased to About 620,000
• January Unemployment: 7.9% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
• Month-to-Month Headline Unemployment Rates Are Not Comparable
• January M3 Year-to-Year Growth at 4.5%

No. 498: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods January, 30th, 2013 • Although Recovery Never Took Place, Official Double-Dip Recession Likely Will Be Clocked from Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• Reported Contraction in Real GDP Designed to Discourage Fiscal Reform?
• Fourth-Quarter Nominal GDP Growth Collapsed to 0.46% from 5.91%
• Real Durable Goods Orders Contracted Year-to-Year, Despite Temporary Orders Boost from Year-End Defense Spending

No. 497: Monetary and Fiscal Developments, December Home Sales January, 25th, 2013 • Congress Tries to Buy More Time to Balance Fiscal Conditions
But Patience of Global Markets is Finite
• Ongoing Economic Downturn Means Budget Prognostications Are Overly Optimistic
• QE3 Begins to Surface: Monetary Base at All-Time High, Broad Money Growth Rises

No. 496: ALERT GAAP-Based U.S. Budget Deficit January, 17th, 2013 • Actual 2012 Federal Budget Deficit Hit $6.9 Trillion

No. 495: December CPI, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Production January, 17th, 2013

• Official Quarterly Production Growth Rates for Second-Half 2012 Were Weakest Since Recession Trough in 2009
• Corrected for Understated Inflation, Real Retail Sales and Production Show
Post-2009 Stagnation Turned into Contraction in Second- or Third-Quarter 2012
• December Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.4% (ShadowStats)
• December Housing Starts Gain Still Not Statistically Significant
Despite Some Boost from Hurricane Damage

No. 494: December Retail Sales, PPI January, 15th, 2013 • Merrily We Roll Along, Towards Hyperinflation
• U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns Could Resurface Quickly in Global Markets
• December Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Insignificant;
Activity Was Blurred by Storm Impact and Unstable Seasonal Adjustments
• Despite Stable Oil, December PPI Was Hit by Lower Food and Gasoline Prices

No. 493: November Trade Deficit January, 11th, 2013 • Official Inflation-Adjusted Merchandise Trade Deficit Hit 4-1/2 Year High
• Implications for Weaker Advance-Estimate of 4th-Quarter GDP
• Consumer Structural-Liquidity Issues Continue

No. 492: Fiscal Fiasco, December Employment and Unemployment, November Construction January, 5th, 2013 • Fiscal Crisis Continues Unabated; Last-Minute �Cliff� Deal Did Nothing to Reduce or Contain Budget Deficits
• No Way of Avoiding A Recession That Already Is Underway
• December U.3 Unemployment Rate Actually Rose by 0.1%
• ShadowStats Unemployment Estimate at New High
• December Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats.com)
• December M3 Annual Growth at 3-1/2 Year High

No. 491: 2012 and Early-2013 Conditions, November New Home Sales December, 27th, 2012 • 2012 Saw Meaningful Degradation of Fiscal and Monetary Policies
and of Economic, Systemic and Political Stability
• 2013 Should Encompass a �New� Recession, Dollar Turmoil, Rising Inflation
• A Tumble Off the Cliff Would Trigger Confidence Problems That Never Could Be Recovered Fully
• Revisions Due for Seasonally-Adjusted Unemployment Data

No. 490: November Durable Goods, Housing Starts, GDP Revision December, 21st, 2012

• GDP Upside Revision Was In Health Care (and Bad Deflation of Same)
• GDI (GDP Equivalent) Annualized Third-Quarter Gain of 1.36%, Followed Annualized Second-Quarter Contraction of 0.72%
• Weaker November Housing Starts Reflected Mixed Storm Effects, But Sharp Downside Revisions Were Pre-Hurricane
• Fed�s Inflation Target Is Just In-House Wishful Guessing
• Despite Boost from Hurricane, Durable Goods Orders Remained in Recession

No. 489: November CPI, Industrial Production December, 14th, 2012 • Real Retail Sales Still Signal Recession
• Storm�s Impact on November Retail and Production Activity May Have Been Positive,
But Any Gains Are Temporary, And Major Revisions Are Likely
•Time for the Government to Come Clean on the C-CPI-U
• QE3 Expansion Promises Rising Inflation Ahead
• November Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.8% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.4% (SGS)

No. 488: Fed Action, November Retail Sales, PPI, October Trade Deficit December, 13th, 2012 • Fed Moves to Monetize More Treasury Debt,
Boosting the Outlook for Inflation, Not the Economy
• Still Hammered by Consumer Illiquidity,
November Retail Sales Reporting Was Warped by Hurricane Effects
• Mangled by Soft Revisions to Services Surplus,
October Trade Deficit Likely Also Reflected Storm Distortions
• PPI Decline Driven by Temporary Drop in Oil Prices

No. 487: November Employment and Unemployment, October Construction, PCE Deflator December, 7th, 2012 • Nonsense November Jobs and Unemployment Numbers
• Serious Revision Issues with Bloated Pre-Election Payroll Numbers
• Discouraged Workers Jumped by 20.4% in November
• November Unemployment: 7.7% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats.com)
• M3 Annual Growth Slows Anew

No. 486: Third-Quarter GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales November, 29th, 2012 Third-Quarter 2012:
• Revised GDP Growth Was Flawed and Statistically Insignificant
• GDI (Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Rose 1.7%,
With Second-Quarter Falling into 0.7% Contraction
• Durable Goods Quarterly Contraction Deepened in Revision
• New Homes Sales Quarterly Gain Largely Revised Away

No. 485: SPECIAL COMMENTARY November, 27th, 2012 • Hyperinflation by End of 2014
• Heavy Global Selling of U.S. Dollar Could Hit With Little Warning
• Don�t Blame Intensifying Economic Downturn on Sandy or the �Fiscal Cliff�
• Physical Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge

No. 484: Preview of Special Commentary, Housing Starts November, 20th, 2012 • Barreling Down the Road, Big-Government Spending Tries Careening Around the Pothole of the �Fiscal-Cliff,� and then Accelerates, Blithely Ignoring the �Road-Closed� Sign Ahead
• Do or Die, Incoming Government Is Last Frail Hope for Avoiding Hyperinflation
• Economy Already in Renewed Contraction
• Four-Year High in October Housing Starts Still Is 61% Below 2006 Peak

No. 483: October Industrial Production November, 16th, 2012 • Industrial Production Already Was in Contraction Before Hurricane Sandy Pummeled the East Coast

No. 482: October CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Real Earnings November, 15th, 2012 • Official Real Retail Sales Signal Recession
• Storm�s Impact on October Activity Was Mixed
• Official Real Earnings Sink to Four-Year Low,
Down 2.7% Year-to-Year
• Annual Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Continue to Rise
• October Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.2% (CPI-U), 2.2% (CPI-W), 9.8% (SGS)

No. 481: ALERT Unusual U.S. Treasury Action November, 10th, 2012 • Negative Indication for Meaningful Lame-Duck Negotiations on the
Budget Deficit, �Fiscal Cliff� and Debt Ceiling

No. 480: September Trade Balance, Presidential Election November, 8th, 2012 • September Trade Data Suggest Upside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Hurricane Sandy May Have Disrupted Flow of Trade Data
• No Meaningful Shift in Control of U.S. Government, As Budget-Deficit and Debt-Limit Woes Come to the Fore

No. 479: Presidential Election, Hurricane Sandy, October Employment and Unemployment, November, 2nd, 2012 • October Jobs and Unemployment Numbers Were Not Credible,
Artifacts of a Broken Reporting System and/or Direct Manipulation
• With Consistent Seasonal Adjustments, October Jobs Gain
Would Have Been About 117,000 Instead of 171,000
• October Unemployment: 7.9% (U.3), 14.6% (U.6), 22.9% (ShadowStats.com)
• M3 Annual Growth Picks Up Again

No. 478: Third-Quarter GDP, Durable Goods, Home Sales October, 26th, 2012 • Nonsense GDP Growth Was Statistically Insignificant
• Corrected for Misleading Deflation, GDP Shows No Recovery
• M3 Velocity Continued to Rise
• Durable Goods Orders Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
• Home Sales Remained Stagnant at Low Levels of Activity
• Upcoming October Jobs Report

No. 477: September Housing Starts October, 17th, 2012 • September Housing Starts Surge Was Marginally Significant
But Not Credible

No. 476: September CPI, Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings October, 16th, 2012 • Quarterly Industrial Production Contracted for First Time Since Official Recession
• Quarterly Pace of Inflation Picked Up, With CPI and PPI Topping Market Expectations
• September Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0% (CPI-W), 9.6% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Continued to Tumble
• Inflation Provided Half of September Retail Sales Growth

No. 475: September Retail Sales October, 15th, 2012 • September Retail Sales Boosted by Inflation and Seasonal-Adjustment Issues
• Economic Recovery Is Not Possible Without Consumer Liquidity Rebound

No. 474: September PPI, August Trade Deficit, Manipulations October, 12th, 2012 • Third-Quarter Wholesale Inflation Jumps to an Annualized 6.2%
• August Trade Deficit Suggests Downside Pressure on Third-Quarter GDP Estimate
• Political Manipulation of Economic Data: It Has Happened Before

No. 473: September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCEDeflator October, 5th, 2012 • Phony Unemployment Rate Drop? Here Is How It May Have Happened
• With Deliberately-Inconsistent Numbers, Only the BLS Can Clear-Up the Reporting
• September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)
• September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
• M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher Again

No. 472: GDP Revision, August Durable Goods, Household Income, New Home Sales September, 27th, 2012 • Unusually Large 2nd-Quarter Revisions: Headline GDP Growth Dropped to 1.3% from 1.7%,
Theoretically Equivalent GDI Dropped to 0.2% from 0.6%
• Plunging Automobile and Commercial Aircraft Sales Savaged Durable Goods Orders
• August Household Income Took a Hit

No. 471: August Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales September, 19th, 2012 • Official Recovery Remains an Illusion
• Stagnant U.S. Economy Starts to Contract Anew
• Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales Still Are Bottom-Bouncing

No. 470: August CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production September, 14th, 2012 • Fed Easing Aimed at Propping Banking System, Not Boosting Economy
• CPI and PPI Headline Inflation Highest Since June 2009
• Headline CPI Held at 0.6%, Instead of 1.0%, Due to Intervention Analysis?
• August Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.7% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Showing Consistent Pattern of Overstated Headline Activity Being Revised Lower in Following Month
• Monthly Production and Real Earnings Turn Down

No. 469: 2011 Income and Poverty Report, July Trade Balance September, 12th, 2012

• Real Median Household Income Collapses to 16-Year Low;
• 2011 Income Below Levels of Late-1960s, Early-1970s
• Income Variance Hits Record High, Suggestive of Greater Financial and Economic Crises Ahead
• Trade Deficit Contained by Short-Lived Decline in Oil Prices

No. 468: August Employment and Unemployment, M3 September, 7th, 2012 • A Move to Open-Ended Monetization of Treasuries?
• Payroll Jobs Down by 261,000, Household-Survey Employment Down by 86,000,
Since President Obama�s January 2009 Inauguration
• BLS Did Not Publish Actual July-to-August Unemployment Rate Change
• August Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)
• M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher
• Jump in Reported Inflation Likely in Week Ahead

No. 467: GDP Revision, Gold Standard August, 29th, 2012 • GDI at 0.6%, GDP at 1.7%, GNP at 2.2%, All Plus-or-Minus Three Percentage Points
• GDP Recovery Remains An Illusion, Based on Understated Inflation
• Fiscal Conditions Have to Be in Balance for Gold Standard to Work

No. 466: July Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales August, 24th, 2012 • Real Durable Goods Orders and New- and Existing-Home Sales Stagnate Below Pre-2001 Recession Levels

No. 465: July Housing Starts, Economic Review August, 16th, 2012 • Housing Starts Activity Continued in Stagnation
• Broad Economy Is Not Recovering

No. 464: July CPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production August, 15th, 2012

• U. S. Dollar versus Euro
• Irregular Seasonal Factors Depressed Headline CPI by Two-Tenths of a Percentage Point
• July Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.4% (CPI-U), 1.3% (CPI-W), 9.0% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Earnings Showed Deteriorating Economy
• July Production Boost Reflected Excess Auto Inventory Building

No. 463: July Retail Sales, PPI August, 14th, 2012 • July Retail Sales Gain Reflected Ongoing Seasonality Problems and Revisions;
It Did Not Reflect Shifting Consumer Dynamics
• Potential Downside Revision Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP
• Stronger �Core� PPI Inflation Continues to Show Long-Range Impact of Higher Oil Prices

No. 462: June Trade Balance, Consumer Credit August, 9th, 2012 • Bernanke Bemoans GDP Not Reflecting Common Experience
• Trade Data Place Upside Pressure on Second-Quarter GDP Revision
• Consumer Credit Growth Remains All in Student Loans

No. 461: July Employment and Unemployment August, 3rd, 2012 • Nixonian Unemployment Reporting
• July Household-Survey Employment Plunged by 195,000
• Annual Add-Factors in Birth-Death Model Upped to 548,000 Jobs
• July Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.0% (U.6), 22.9% (Shadow Stats)
• Shadow Stats Unemployment Within 0.1 Percentage Point of Cycle-High
• Year-to-Year July M3 Money Supply Growth Even with June

No. 460: FOMC, June Construction, Disposable Income, PCE Deflator August, 1st, 2012 • Fed Action Appears to Be on Hold for Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• Construction Spending Still Bottom-Bouncing
• Disposable Income Flattens Out

No. 459: Second-Quarter GDP, Annual GDP Revisions July, 28th, 2012 • GDP Revisions Showed a Later “Full Recovery” with Shifted Growth Patterns
• Double-Dip Downturn Looms
• Velocity of Money (M3) Is Rising

No. 458: June Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Household Income July, 26th, 2012 • Durable Goods Orders in Second Straight Quarterly Contraction
• Household Income Still Bottom-Bouncing
• June Home Sales Fall-Off, Quarterly Growth Slows/Contracts

No. 457: June Housing Starts, Economic Review July, 18th, 2012

• Housing Growth Slowed in Second Quarter
• Headline Housing Starts Gain Not Statistically Significant
• Annual GDP Revisions Loom

No. 456: June CPI and Industrial Production July, 17th, 2012

• Headline Inflation Should Increase in Next Several Months
• June Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Second-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contracted at 1.5% Annualized Rate
• Production Growth Slowed Sharply in Second-Quarter

No. 455: June Retail Sales July, 16th, 2012 • Second-Quarter Retail Sales Contraction Was First Since the “Recession”
• Renewed Downturn in Business Activity Picks Up Momentum

No. 454: May Trade Balance and Consumer Credit, June PPI July, 13th, 2012 • Trade Data Suggest Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP
• Food Prices and Seasonals Offset Declining Oil Prices in PPI
• Consumer Credit Bottom-Bounces Net of Government Holdings of Student Loans

No. 453: June Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 July, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Factor Issues Inflated June Jobs and Made “Unchanged” Unemployment Meaningless
• June Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.8% (Shadow Stats)
• Shadow Stats Unemployment Nearing Cycle High
• Year-to-Year M3 Money Supply Growth Notched Higher in June

No. 452: Consumer Liquidity, Construction Spending, PCE Deflator July, 2nd, 2012 • Private Nonresidential Construction Took A Hit in Revision
• Consumer Liquidity Outlook Remains Dim

No. 451: GDP Revision, Unemployment Reporting Inconsistencies June, 28th, 2012 • Revised First-Quarter GNP Growth Plunged to 0.5% (Previously 1.3%)
• Actual Monthly Change in U.S. Unemployment Rate Masked by Inconsistencies in Reporting

No. 450: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Consumer Confidence June, 27th, 2012 • Real Durable Goods Orders Topping Out Below Levels Seen in 1999
• Home Sales Keep Bottom-Bouncing Along

No. 449: May Housing Starts June, 19th, 2012

• Housing Starts Bouncing at Slightly Higher Plateau

No. 448: May Industrial Production June, 15th, 2012 • Manufacturers Cut Production, Trying to Reduce Excess Inventories Versus Slack Demand

No. 447: May CPI, Real Retail Sales, Real Earnings June, 14th, 2012

• Softening Inflation Pattern Is About to Reverse
• May Year-to-Year Inflation: 1.7% (CPI-U), 1.6% (CPI-W), 9.3% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Real Earnings Revise Lower

No. 446: May Retail Sales, PPI June, 13th, 2012 • Revisions Eviscerated Recent Retail Strength
• May Sales Fell 0.8% Against Initial April Reporting
• PPI Decline Reflected Oil Price Drop Compounded by Adverse Seasonal Factors

No. 445: SPECIAL COMMENTARY - Review of Economic, Systemic-Solvency, Inflation, U.S. Dollar and Gold Circumstances June, 12th, 2012 • Economic and Systemic Crises of 2007/2008 Continue
• Don�t Blame the Economy on Europe
• Global Markets to Turn Against U.S. Dollar
• Hyperinflation Outlook Updated
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge

No. 444: April Trade Balance June, 11th, 2012 • Trade Data Suggest Negative Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP

No. 443: Employment and Unemployment, Construction, M3, PCE Deflator June, 1st, 2012 • May Payrolls Up Just 20,000 versus Initial April Estimate
• May Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.8% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Money Supply Growth Slowed Further in May
• Construction Spending Stagnation Continued in April
• April PCE Deflator Dropped Below Fed’s Target

No. 442: GDP Revision, Election Impact May, 31st, 2012 • First-Quarter GNP Headline Growth Fell to 1.3%, Weakest Since Second-Quarter 2009 Official End of Recession
• Major Revisions to Income and Implications for the Presidential Election

No. 441: April Durable Goods Orders, New and Existing Home Sales, U.S. Dollar May, 24th, 2012 • Activity in Real Durable Goods Orders Is Below 1999 Level
• Low-Level Stagnation in Home Sales Activity Continued into April
• Update on U.S. Dollar Fundamentals

No. 440: Durable Goods Orders Annual Benchmark Revision May, 18th, 2012 • Durable Goods Orders Collapsed More Sharply in 2009,
Rebounded More Sharply in 2010, and Showed a Somewhat Softer Gain in 2011
• Auto Industry Turmoil Appears to Have Disrupted Orders Reporting

No. 439: April Industrial Production, Housing Starts May, 16th, 2012

• Unusually Unstable Production Reporting
• Housing Starts Stagnation at Slightly Higher Plateau

Consumer Price Index May, 15th, 2012 No. 438: Public Commentary on Inflation Measurement.

No. 437: April CPI, Real Earnings, Retail Sales, Euro May, 15th, 2012

• �Core� CPI-U Inflation Hits Cycle High
• April Year-to-Year Inflation Softens: 2.3% (CPI-U), 2.4% (CPI-W), 9.9% (SGS)
• Real Average Weekly Earnings in Ongoing Year-to-Year Decline
• Retail Sales Were Stagnant, Statistically Insignificant

No. 436: March Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, April PPI May, 11th, 2012

• Trade Deficit Deterioration Suggests Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• PPI Contraction Due to Seasonal-Factor Suppression of Higher Energy Prices
• Net of Federal Student Loans, Consumer Credit Is Near Cycle Low
• Gold Remains Key Hedge Against Oncoming Troubles

No. 435: April Employment/Unemployment, Money Supply and Velocity, Systemic Stress, May, 4th, 2012 • For Second Month, Household-Survey Employment Fell as Payroll Growth Faltered
• April Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Annual M3 Growth Weakened in April as Velocity Rose
• New Indicator Shows Intensifying Systemic Stress
• Impaired Construction Spending Continued

No. 434: Unpublished Payroll Data, Household Income May, 2nd, 2012 • Unpublished Payroll Employment Numbers
• March Household Income Sputters
• Clarifying Some Misperceptions

No. 433: Retail Sales Benchmark, March PCE Deflator, Systemic Stress April, 30th, 2012 • Retail Sales Benchmark Revision Showed Weaker Historical Growth
• March PCE Deflator Closer to Fed�s Target
• Indications of Intensifying Systemic Stress

No. 432: First-Quarter 2012 GDP April, 27th, 2012 • First-Quarter GDP Growth Not Statistically Significant
• Recovery Is an Illusion Created by Use of Artificially-Low Inflation

No. 431: March Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales April, 25th, 2012 • Drop in March Durable Goods Orders Reflected Normal Volatility, But Inflation-Adjusted Level Was 23.4% Below Pre-2007 Recession High
• Protracted Low-Level Stagnation Continued for March Home Sales

No. 430: March Industrial Production and Housing Starts April, 17th, 2012

• Industrial Production Unchanged for Second Month
• Housing Starts in 40th Month of Historically-Low-Level Stagnation,
Following 2006-to-2008 Collapse in Activity

SPECIAL COMMENTARY. No. 429: Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April, 16th, 2012 • Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant
• First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income Increasingly Constrained
• Sustainable Economic Growth Is Not Possible Without Underlying Growth in Income and Credit

No. 428: March CPI and PPI, February Trade Balance April, 13th, 2012

• CPI Headline Inflation of 0.3% Was 0.8% Not Seasonally Adjusted
• March Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 2.9% (CPI-W), 10.3% (SGS)
• Broad-Based Inflation Reflected in Stronger �Core� Inflation
• February Trade Improvement Should Boost GDP Expectations

No. 427: March Labor Data, M3 and February Construction Spending April, 6th, 2012 • Headline Jobs Gain and Unemployment Rate Decline Were Statistically Insignificant
• March Unemployment: 8.2% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)
• Construction Spending Stuck in Bottom-Bouncing Stagnation
• QE3 Always Has Been Dependent on Systemic Crises, Not the Economy or Inflation (Economy Has Provided Fed Cover)
• M3 Money Supply Growth Slipped in March, Signaling Potential Systemic Liquidity Crisis Intensification

SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 426: Economic Update: Mired in A Protracted Downturn March, 30th, 2012 • GNP Growth at 1.8% versus 3.0% GDP
• Real Durable Goods Orders 10% Below Levels Seen in 2000
• Shenanigans in Industrial Production Benchmark Masked Small Downside Revisions to Recent Activity
• Recession Deeper than Previously Estimated

No. 425: February Housing Starts, New and Existing Home Sales March, 23rd, 2012 • Activity in Housing and Construction Remains Stagnant Near Historic Lows

No. 424: February CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production March, 16th, 2012 • February CPI Was Shy of Reflecting Full Impact of Gasoline Prices
• February�s Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Monthly Gain Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Volatile Monthly Production Numbers Sputtered And Stalled Once Again

No. 423: February Retail Sales March, 13th, 2012 • Rising Prices Largely Accounted for February Retail Sales Gain

No. 422: February Employment, Unemployment and M3, January Trade Balance March, 9th, 2012 • Payrolls Regain Pre-2001 (Not Pre-2007) Recession Levels
• February Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 14.9% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Trade Deficit Deteriorates in January Reporting and Prior-Period Revisions
• Money Supply M3 Growth Stalls Anew

No. 421: GDP Revision, January PCE Deflator and Durable Goods Orders March, 1st, 2012 • GDP Revision Was Little More than Statistical Noise, Yet 4th-Quarter No Longer Is Comparable with Prior Periods
• Income Revised to Show Ongoing Surging Salaries and Wages of “Unknown” Nature
• Fed’s Inflation Target (PCE Deflator) Is A Poorly Regurgitated CPI Measure
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Net of Plunging Aircraft Orders

No. 420: Monetary Base, January Home Sales February, 24th, 2012 • Monetary Base Surge to Record High Suggests Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• January Home Sales Numbers Continued Bottom-Bouncing
• Unstable Seasonal Adjustments in Existing Home Sales?

No. 419: January CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales and Housing Starts February, 17th, 2012 • Annual �Core� Inflation Rose for 15th Straight Month
• Year-to-Year January Consumer Inflation: 2.9% (CPI-U), 3.1% (CPI-W), 10.5% (SGS)
• Headline CPI and PPI Inflation Rates Understated Due to Unstable Seasonal Factors

Withheld Income and Payroll Taxes - Update February, 17th, 2012
Please see our introductory pages on payroll tax receipts for some background information on this data series.

Analyzing the Potential for Tax Receipts Growth in 2012
Note: In all that follows, "Tax Receipts" and "Tax Deposits" refer to payments deposited by employers on the basis of payroll activity, and received by the US Treasury . The deposits […]

No. 418: January Retail Sales and Industrial Production February, 15th, 2012 • Retail Sales �Growth� Remains Statistically Insignificant and Reliant on Price Increases
• Slowing Annual Growth Evident in Both Sales and Production

No. 417: December 2011 and Annual Trade Deficit February, 10th, 2012 • Annual Trade Deficit Widened to $558 Billion in 2011, from $500 Billion in 2010, A Negative for Both the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. Economy
• Trade Could Pressure GDP Revision to Downside
• More Jobs Lost to NAFTA

No. 416: Payrolls, Unemployment and Revisions, M3, PCE Deflator February, 3rd, 2012 • Basic Economic Outlook Unaltered by Stronger Labor Data
• January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago
• January Unemployment: 8.3% (U.3), 15.1% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up

No. 415: Fourth-Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods and Home Sales January, 27th, 2012 • Net of Involuntary Inventory Build-Up, GDP Growth Was 0.8% Instead of 2.8%
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Still Show Stagnation
• Fed’s New PCE Inflation Target Is Inconsistent with Plans for Ongoing Easing

No. 414: Hyperinflation Special Report 2012 January, 25th, 2012 • U.S. Hyperinflationary Great Depression Moves Ever Closer
• U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve Effectively Have Destroyed Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar
• Systemic-Solvency and Economic Crises Have Not Abated
• Precursors to Ultimate Dollar Disaster Are in Place; 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same

No. 413: December CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales January, 19th, 2012 • Patterns of Slowing Growth Have Re-Emerged
• Inflation from High Oil Prices Still Impacting Broad Economy

• 2011 Average Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• 2011 Average Annual Wholesale Inflation: 6.1% (PPI)
• Perils of Poor-Quality Inflation Data and Bad Assumptions

No. 412: December Retail Sales, November Trade Balance January, 13th, 2012 • Make-or-Break Month for Retailers Was Flat-to-Minus, Both Before and Likely After Adjustment for Inflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Retail Sales and Trade Data Should Dampen 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Outlook

No. 411: December Employment and Unemployment January, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Adjustment Problems Spiked Jobs Growth, Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Artificially Lowered Unemployment Rates
• December Jobs Reading Remained Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• December Unemployment: 8.5% (U.3), 15.2% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Tops 3.0% for First Time in 28 Months

FLASH UPDATE: December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem January, 6th, 2012 • Seasonal-Adjustment Problem Inflated December�s 200,000 Payroll Gain by 42,000

No. 410: Special Commentary, GAAP-Based 2011 U.S. Financial Data December, 28th, 2011 • Actual 2011 Federal Deficit Topped $5.0 Trillion
• U.S. Government Debt and Obligations Top $80 Trillion
• Long-Term U.S. Insolvency/Hyperinflation Remain Virtual Certainty

No. 409: Revised GDP, November Durable Goods, New Home Sales December, 23rd, 2011 • GDI Indicates No U.S. Economic Growth in Either Second- or Third-Quarter 2011
• Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales Show Stagnation
• Treasury Releases 2011 GAAP-Based Financial Report on U.S. Government

No. 408: November Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales December, 21st, 2011 • 3.5 Million Home Sales Just Disappeared
• Housing Starts Still Bottom Bouncing

No. 407: November CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales Industrial Production December, 16th, 2011

• Consumer Financial Distress Hampered Retail Sales and Production
• Nonsensical Hype Over Regularly Mis-Adjusted Jobless Claims
• High Oil Prices Still Inflating Broad Economy
• November’s Annual Inflation: 3.4% (CPI-U), 3.8% (CPI-W), 11.0% (SGS)
• Gold Remains the Ultimate Hedge

No. 406: November Retail Sales, Payroll Tax Receipts December, 13th, 2011 • Faltering Tax Receipts Show Consumer Income Taking A New Hit
• November Retail Sales Change Not Meaningful

No. 405: October Trade Balance December, 9th, 2011 • October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price Variations

No. 404: Special Notice December, 5th, 2011 • Treasury Delays Release of Government�s GAAP-Based Financial Statements Until Christmas Eve

No. 403: Labor Data, Consumer Confidence, M3, Systemic-Solvency and Euro Crises December, 4th, 2011 • There Is No Sudden Economic Recovery, Just Bad-Quality Numbers and Deteriorating Labor Conditions
• Latest Jobs Level Still Well Below Pre-2007 and Pre-2001 Recession Levels
• November Unemployment: 8.6% (U.3), 15.6% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth at 2.7% in November
• Potential Euro Disintegration Is Nothing Like the Looming Dollar Collapse

NOTICE: Commentary No. 403 to be published December 3rd. December, 2nd, 2011 The Economy Is Not Suddenly Recovering / November M3 up About 2.7%

No. 402: GDP Revision, October Durable Goods and Existing Home Sales November, 23rd, 2011 • Headline Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Growth Collapsed with Suggestion of 0.8% Contraction for Third-Quarter
• Slowing Annual Growth in Durable Goods Orders
• Existing Home Sales Bottom-Bounce
• Once Again, U.S. Government Signals Lack of Fiscal Concerns

No. 401: Underlying Economic Reality, October Housing Starts November, 17th, 2011

• Housing Starts Continued Three-Year Pattern of Bottom-Bouncing
• Economic Recovery Never Happened; Hyped Gains Were Based on Gimmicked Inflation Adjustments
• Current Downturn Already Exceeds Duration of Great Depression’s First Down-Leg

No. 400: Budget Deficit Reality, October CPI, Industrial Production November, 16th, 2011 • GAAP-Based 2011 Federal Deficit Likely Within Five- to Seven-Trillion Dollar Range
• Effects of High Oil Prices Still Spreading in Broad Economy
• October’s Annual Inflation: 3.5% (CPI-U), 3.9% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Gained in October But the Series Share Inflation-Adjustment Issues

No. 399: October Retail Sales, PPI November, 15th, 2011 • Retail Sales Gain Not Statistically Meaningful
• PPI Inflation Showed High Oil Price Effects Still Spreading in Broad Economy

No. 398: September Trade Deficit November, 10th, 2011 • September Trade Data Suggest Minimal Upside Contribution to Pending GDP Revision
• U.S. Fiscal Disaster Surpasses Any Problems Seen With Major Trading Partners
• Pending Special Commentaries

No. 397: October Employment and Unemployment November, 4th, 2011 • Monthly Payroll and Unemployment Changes Were Not Statistically Meaningful
• October Payroll Employment Not Only Was 6.5 Million Below the Pre-2007 Recession High, But Also Was 1.0 Million Below the Pre-2001 Recession High
• October Unemployment: 9.0% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.9% (SGS)
• Annual Growth in October Money Supply M3 Held at About 2.6%

No. 396: 3rd-Quarter GDP, October Confidence, September Durables Orders and Home Sales October, 27th, 2011 • Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Sink to Levels Never Seen Outside of the Worst Recessions
• No Economic Recovery Is in Place or in the Works
• Third-Quarter GDP Gain Not Statistically Meaningful
• GDP Nonsense: Consumption Surged 1.7% While Disposable Income Collapsed 1.7%?

No. 395: September CPI, PPI, Real Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Industrial Production October, 19th, 2011 • Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Jumped in September
• September’s Annual Inflation: 3.9% (CPI-U), 4.4% (CPI-W), 11.5% (SGS)
• Annual PPI Inflation Hits 6.9% in September
• Third-Quarter Real Retail Sales, Production and Housing Starts Outpaced Second-Quarter Activity, but Economy Remains in Severe Downturn

No. 394: September Retail Sales, August Trade Deficit October, 14th, 2011 • The Great Downturn Deepens as Household Incomes Collapse
• September Retail Sales Gain Exaggerated by Poor-Quality Seasonal Adjustments
• Trade Deficit Still Suggests A Positive Contribution to Third-Quarter GDP

No. 393: September Employment, Unemployment, M3, Special Commentary October, 7th, 2011 • September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Meaningless
• Broadest Government Unemployment Rate Jumped by 0.3% to 16.5%
• September Unemployment: 9.1% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 23.1% (SGS)
• Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Inched Higher in September
• Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises Intensify

No. 392: Benchmark Payroll and GDP Revisions, August Durable Goods and Home Sales September, 29th, 2011 • GDP Revised Higher, GDI Revised Lower, Growth Remained Statistically Indistinguishable from a Contraction
• Average Monthly Understatement of 16,000 Jobs for Year-Ended March 2011 (per BLS)
• Home Sales Keep Bottom-Bouncing Despite Having Covered Sales Lost to Stimulus Efforts

No. 391: August Housing Starts September, 20th, 2011 • Following a 75% Crash in Housing Industry, Housing Starts Near Three-Years of Bottom-Bouncing

No. 390: August CPI, Real Retail Sales, Industrial Production September, 15th, 2011 • Consumer Inflation at Three-Year High
• August’s Annual Inflation: 3.8% (CPI-U), 4.3% (CPI-W), 11.4% (SGS)
• “Core” Inflation Jumped Again with Some Acceleration
• Real Retail Sales Fell 0.3% in August
• August’s 0.2% Production Gain Was a 0.1% Loss Against Initial September Reporting

No. 389: August Retail Sales, PPI, 2010 Household Income September, 14th, 2011 • Flat August Retail Sales Most Likely Were Down Net of Inflation
• Real Median Household Income Drops to 15-Year Low (Below 1969 Level, CPI-U Adjusted)
• Volatile PPI Reporting Flat for Month, Up 6.5% for Year

No. 388: July Trade Deficit, Turmoil in Financial Markets September, 8th, 2011 • July Trade Deficit Suggests Possible Positive Contribution to Third-Quarter GDP
• Swiss Intervention Unlikely to Have Lasting Impact

No. 387: August Employment, Unemployment, M3 September, 2nd, 2011 • August Payrolls Were 58,000 Below the July Payroll Levels Reported One Month Ago
• Concurrent Seasonal-Factor Adjustments Mute Bad News
• August Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.8% (SGS)
• Money Supply M3 Growth Slowed in August

No. 386: GDP Revision, July Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales August, 26th, 2011 • Revised Second-Quarter GDP Change Remained Statistically Insignificant —Could Have Been a Contraction as Easily as a Gain
• Money Supply M2 Surge Reflects Shift from Large M3 Accounts

No. 385: July CPI, PPI, Industrial Production and Housing Starts August, 18th, 2011 • Inflation Spreads Throughout Economy as Annual “Core” Inflation Jumps Again
• Consumer Inflation at 33-Month High
• July’s Annual Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.2% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Gain Vanishes, Net of Inflation
• Unusual Heat and Japanese Auto Assembly Parts Boosted Production
• Housing Activity Remains Moribund

No. 384: Markets, July Retail Sales, June Trade Balance August, 12th, 2011 • Financial Circumstances Remain Unstable and Threatening
• U.S. Dollar Is in Serious Trouble
• Retail Sales Gain Was Statistically Meaningless and Largely Reflected Inflation
• Trade Data Suggest Downside Pressure on Upcoming GDP Revision

No. 383: Dollar, Deficit and Downgrade Crises, July Employment and M3 August, 7th, 2011 • Dollar Debasement Accelerates Dangerously
• U.S. Rating Downgrade Will Have Unhappy Ripple Effects
• QE3 Likely Will Be Indicated This Week
• Payroll and Unemployment Improvements Were Not Statistically Meaningful
• July Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 16.1% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Increased in July

No. 382: Second-Quarter GDP and Revisions, Durable Goods Orders July, 29th, 2011

• GDP Growth Slows Markedly
• Official Downturn Much Deeper In Revision
• Latest GDP No Longer Has Recovered Pre-Recession High
• 2009 Annual GDP Drop Now Worst Since 1932 — Outside of World War II Production Shutdown

No. 381: Debt, Deficit and Sovereign Rating July, 25th, 2011 • Dollar and Deficit Do Matter
• Downgrade Almost as Damaging as Default

No. 380: June Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales, Liquidity, GDP Outlook July, 20th, 2011 • Housing Starts Boosted by Apartment Starts
• Existing Home Sales Suffer From Liquidity Crunch
• Solvency Crisis: Banks Are Not Increasing Aggregate Lending
• Downside GDP Revisions Loom

No. 379: June CPI, Industrial Production July, 15th, 2011 • Economy Falters as Key Indicators Put in Worst Performances Since “End” of the Recession in June 2009
• Higher Energy Prices Create Broad Inflationary Pressures Across the Economy
• Despite Short-Lived Dip in Gasoline Prices June Annual Consumer Inflation Held at 32-Month High
• June’s Annual Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.1% (SGS)
• Annual “Core” Inflation in a Steady Upside Move Since QE2

No. 378: June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit July, 14th, 2011 • At Best, Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Showed No Growth in Second-Quarter 2011
• Trade Data Should Offer a Positive Contribution to Second-Quarter GDP Growth
• Wholesale Inflation Spreading to Broad Economy, Despite Short-Lived Dip in Oil and Gasoline Prices

No. 377: June Employment, Unemployment and M3 July, 8th, 2011 • Payroll Survey Employment Down by 26,000, Before Revisions
• Household Survey Employment Plunged by 445,000
• June Unemployment Rates: 9.2% (U.3), 16.2% (U.6), 22.7% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Flattened in June

No. 376: General Update June, 30th, 2011 • Real Disposable Income on Track for Second-Quarter Contraction
• An Unlikely U.S. Default Would Hit Dollar and Accelerate Inflation
• New Action to Depress Officially Reported Inflation?

No. 375: GDP Revision, May Durables Goods Orders and Home Sales June, 24th, 2011 • Bernanke Befuddled by Weak Economy?
• Major Downside Revisions to GDP Revisions Loom As Economy Slowly Slides into a Double-Dip

No. 374: May Housing Starts June, 16th, 2011 • Housing Starts Remain in Downhill Bottom-Bouncing

No. 373: May Inflation, Retail Sales, Production June, 15th, 2011 • Economy Falters as Inflation Surges
• May’s Annual Consumer Inflation: 3.6% (CPI-U), 4.1% (CPI-W), 11.2% (SGS)
• Real Retail Sales Contracted in Both April and May
• Stalled Industrial Production Continued

No. 372: April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift June, 9th, 2011 • Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit
• Trade Revisions Showed Somewhat Deeper Historical Shortfalls
• Mr. Bernanke Begins to Unfurl His Warning Flag

No. 371: May Employment and Unemployment June, 3rd, 2011 • Softer Employment Picture Reflected Minor Catch Up In Distorted Data – Much Weaker Data Loom Despite Ongoing Reporting Quality Issues
• Annual Growth in May Payrolls Slowed Anew
• May Unemployment Rates: 9.1% (U.3), 15.8% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Growth Jumps Again

No. 370: GDP Revision, Revised Durable Goods, Home Sales May, 26th, 2011

• Major Downside Revisions to GDP Loom in Upcoming Benchmark
• Durable Goods Orders Revised Lower by 8% in Trough-Year 2009
• Housing Activity Disaster Exacerbates Systemic Solvency Issues

No. 369: April Housing Starts, Industrial Production May, 17th, 2011 • Housing Starts Under Downside Pressure
• April Production Stalled Amid Hefty Negative Revisions

No. 368: April Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit May, 13th, 2011 • April Year-to-Year Consumer Inflation: 3.2% (CPI-U), 3.6% (CPI-W), 10.7% (SGS)
• Fed�s Dollar Debasement Efforts Boost Three-Month CPI Inflation into 6% to 7% Range
• �Official Double-Digit Consumer Inflation Possible in Third-Quarter
• With Rising Prices Dominating Sales Gains, �Core� Retail Sales Were Unchanged in April

No. 367: April Labor Numbers, Money Supply, Dollar and Precious Metals May, 6th, 2011 • Increasingly Misleading Seasonal-Factors Continued to Pummel Accuracy of Jobs Data
• April Household Survey Showed 190,000 Employment Drop
• April Unemployment Rates: 9.0% (U.3), 15.9% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
• Broad Money Supply Gains in April
• Underlying Inflation, Dollar and Precious Metals Fundamentals Unchanged

No. 366: First-Quarter GDP, Retail Sales Revisions, Hyperinflation Watch April, 29th, 2011

• Historical Retail Sales Revised Lower
• First-Quarter GDP “Growth” StatisticallyIndistinguishable from Contraction

No. 365: March Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders April, 27th, 2011 • Pending Benchmarks to Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders Should Show Economy to Have Been Weaker
• Home Sales Remain Troubled

No. 364: Housing Starts, Hyperinflation Watch April, 19th, 2011 • Housing Starts Keep Bouncing Down Hill
• Upcoming Numbers Should Show a Stalling and Much Weaker Economy

No. 363: Inflation, Retail Sales, Production April, 15th, 2011 • Real Monthly Retail Sales Fell by 0.2% in March
• Fed�s Dollar Debasement Has Boosted Quarterly CPI Inflation to More than 5%
• March Year-to-Year Consumer Inflation: 2.7% (CPI-U), 3.0% (CPI-W), 10.2% (SGS)

No. 362: Trade, Liquidity, Hyperinflation Watch April, 12th, 2011 • Near-Term Hyperinflation Risk Continues to Progress
• Trade Deficit Should Be a Negative for First-Quarter GDP

No. 361: March Employment and Unemployment April, 1st, 2011 • Reporting Quality Remains Abysmal for Monthly Employment and Unemployment
• March Unemployment Rates: 8.8% (U.3), 15.7% (U.6), 22.0% (SGS)
• Upped Birth-Death Bias Factors Both Assume and Create Jobs Growth
• Broad Money Supply in an Uptick?

No. 360: Industrial Production Revisions March, 25th, 2011

• Revised Industrial Production Shows Much Deeper Recession
• February�s Production Level Lowered by 2.6%

No. 359: GDP Revision, February Home Sales and New Orders for Durable Goods March, 25th, 2011 • Unlike Reported GDP, GNP and GDI Have Not Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
• GDP Revision Reflected Weaker Consumption and Higher Inventories
• Home Sales Plunged Anew in Tandem with Housing Starts

No. 358: February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3 March, 17th, 2011 • Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars
• Fed�s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their Poisoned Fruit
• February Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.3% (CPI-W), 9.6% (SGS)
• Housing Starts Fall Back to Post-World War II Historic Low

Hyperinflation Special Report (2011) March, 15th, 2011 • United States Nears Hyperinflationary Great Depression
• Federal Reserve and Government Have Exploded the U.S. Fiscal Crisis, Shattered Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar but Not Resolved Ongoing Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises
• High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Disaster Beginning to Unfold in Months Ahead, 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same
• Contracting Money Supply Can Be Inflationary When Real Economy Contracts Even Faster
• Major Economic Series Suggest Formal Depression in Place

No. 356: February Retail Sales, January Trade Deficit March, 11th, 2011 • February Retail Sales Gain of Questionable Reporting Quality
• January Trade Deficit Suggests Downside Pressure on First-Quarter GDP Growth

No. 355: February Employment and Unemployment March, 4th, 2011 • Crisis with Unstable Seasonal-Factors Diminishes Significance of Adjusted Labor Data
• February Unemployment: 8.9% (U.3), 15.9% (U.6), 22.1% (SGS)
• Contracting M3 and Rising Inflation

No. 354: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Tax Receipts, Political Crises February, 25th, 2011 • Safe-Haven Flight from Mounting Political Turmoil in North Africa and Mid-East Favors Precious Metals and Swiss Franc over U.S. Dollar
• Payroll-Tax-Deposit Series to Offer New Economic and Fiscal Insights
• 4th-Quarter GDP Growth Revised Lower But Quality Issues Continue
• Home Sales Remain Troubled

No. 353: January Inflation February, 17th, 2011 • January Annual Inflation Rose to 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.8% (CPI-W), 9.1% (SGS)
• Accelerating December and January Inflation Was Muted by Unstable Seasonal Adjustments
• C-CPI-U Revisions Generated “Needed” Lower Inflation Reporting

No. 352: January PPI, Production, Housing Starts February, 16th, 2011 • PPI Gain Was Stronger than Expected with Mounting “Core” Problems, Yet Increase Was Muted by Revised Seasonal Factors
• Industrial Production Likely Faces Major Downward Revisions in March
• Housing Starts Still Bottom-Bouncing/Weakening

No. 351: January Retail Sales February, 15th, 2011 • Retail Gains Were Offset Fully by Inflation for Second Month
• “Core” Retail Sales Activity (Net of Gasoline Stations and Grocery Stores) Was Unchanged

No. 350: December Trade Deficit February, 11th, 2011 • December Trade Data Suggest Softer 4th-Quarter GDP in Revision
• Deficits Deepen with Biggest Trading Partners

No. 349: Crisis in Economic Reporting, Systemic Liquidity February, 7th, 2011

• Seasonal Adjustment Crisis: Month-to-Month Comparisons Have Become Meaningless for Key Series
• Broad Money Supply Appears to Be Contracting Month-to-Month

No. 348: Labor Conditions and Revisions February, 4th, 2011 • “Recovery” Since April 2010 Just Evaporated
• 500K Payroll Jobs Disappeared in Benchmark Revision
• January Payrolls Were Down 52K But for Upped Bias-Factor
• Unemployment Rate Distorted by Seasonal-Adjustment Crisis
• Unemployment: 9.0% (U.3), 16.1% (U.6), 22.2% (SGS)

No. 347: 4th Quarter GDP, December Durable Goods, Home Sales January, 28th, 2011 • “Advance” 4th-Quarter GDP Estimate Was Meaningless
• Durable Goods Orders Fell Fourth Straight Month and for Fourth-Quarter
• Housing Market Conditions Remain Bleak

No. 346: December Housing Starts January, 19th, 2011 • Housing Starts Collapse Accelerates Anew, Down an Annualized 30% in 4th- versus 3rd-Quarter

No. 345: December Inflation, Retail Sales, Production January, 14th, 2011 • Monthly December Inflation Surged (Annualized Rates): CPI-U Gained 6.2%, CPI-W Jumped 7.8%, PPI Soared 14.0%
• December Retail Sales Increase Was Due to Price Increases
• Industrial Production Was Spiked by Unseasonable Weather
• Initial Trade Deficit Should Help 4th-Quarter GDP

No. 344: December Employment and Unemployment January, 7th, 2011 • December Jobs Increase Was Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• December Unemployment: 9.4% (U.3), 16.7% (U.6), 22.4% (SGS)
• Seasonal Factor Issues “Improved” Both Payroll and Unemployment Reporting
• Watch Out for Next Month’s Revisions

No. 343: Updated December Jobs Report Outlook January, 5th, 2011 • Employment and Unemployment Increasingly Should Disappoint Recovery Expectations

No. 342: Economic, Market and Systemic Outlook for 2011 December, 30th, 2010 • 2010: A Year of Depressed Economic Stagnation
• 2011: A Year of Increasing Economic and Systemic Difficulties
• Gold Outperforms Dow for Seventh Straight Year (2010)

No. 341: November Durable Goods Orders, Housing, GDP Revision December, 23rd, 2010 • Automobile Orders Sink for Fourth Month
• Annualized GDP Growth at 2.6%, GDI Growth at 1.1%
• Housing Crisis Appears to Be Intensifying
• Year-to-Year Decline in Home Sales Is Meaningful Even after Netting out Year-Ago Tax Credit Spikes

No. 340: 2010 Financial Statements of the U.S. Government December, 22nd, 2010 • Actual 2010 Annual GAAP Deficit in $5 Trillion Range
• “Uncertain” Impact of Health Care Law Roils the Accounting
• No U.S. Guarantee behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

No. 339: November Inflation, Retail Sales, Production December, 15th, 2010 • Beware Unstable Economic Reporting!
• Inconsistent Seasonal Factors Depressed CPI
• Bulk of Gain in November Retail Sales Was from Higher Prices

No. 338: October Trade Deficit, Tax Games December, 10th, 2010 • Narrower October Trade Deficit Is Positive Indication for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Proposed Tax Deal Would Not Forestall the Double-Dip
• Federal Government’s Fiscal Woes Would Be Exacerbated

No. 337: November Employment and Unemployment December, 3rd, 2010 • November Jobs Increase Was Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• Recent Payroll Gains “Borrowed” Strength from Earlier Reporting
• Unemployment: 9.8% (U.3), 17.0% (U.6), 22.6% (SGS)

No. 336: November Jobs Outlook, Deficit Commission, Euro Foil December, 1st, 2010 • November Jobs Data Due for Some Downside Catch-Up
• Deficit Commission’s Primary Target Is Cash-Based Not GAAP-Based Deficit
• U.S. Remains the Dominant Sovereign-Solvency Problem

No. 335: GDP Revision, October Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales November, 24th, 2010 • GDP at 2.5% But “Equivalent” GDI at 1.6%
• Weaker Durable Goods Orders Reflect Stressed Consumer
• Home Sales Weakness Intensified by Systemic-Solvency Issues

No. 334: October Inflation, Retail Sales, Production, Housing Starts November, 17th, 2010 • Fed’s Monetization Jawboning Spiked Energy Inflation
• Fed Prefers to Ignore Energy Costs, Concentrating on “Core” Inflation Measures
• Retail Sales Still Heavily Distorted
•Production Appears to Have Topped
• Housing Starts Resume Meaningful Decline

No. 333: Updated Outlook: U.S. Economy, Inflation, Markets, Liquidity and Systemic Stability November, 10th, 2010 • Economic and Systemic-Stability Crises Continue
• Promised Fed Actions Pummel Dollar versus Major Currencies and Precious Metals, as Global Markets Anticipate Higher U.S. Inflation
• Fed Policies Will Trigger Inflation but Not Recovery
• Hyperinflationary Great Depression Looms, Irrespective of Shifting Political Environment
• September Trade Deficit Should Have Little Impact on GDP Revision

No. 332: October Employment and Unemployment, Dollar Debasement, Election November, 5th, 2010 • Baloney Payroll-Employment Data: Seasonal Adjustments Become Primary Driver of Jobs Creation?
• October Household-Survey Employment Fell 330,000
• October Unemployment Rates: 9.6% (U.3), 17.0% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS)
• Fed Move to Debase U.S. Dollar Will Generate Higher Inflation But No Recovery
• Election Results Do Not Alter Basic Economic or Inflation Outlooks

No. 331: Third-Quarter GDP, Quantitative-Easing Games, Homes Sales, New Orders October, 29th, 2010 • Third-Quarter GDP Growth Statistically Indistinguishable from Zero
• Official Economic Activity Is Virtually Flat Other Than for Inventory Building
• Fed Will Be Forced to Monetize Treasury Debt, Irrespective of Current Jawboning, Games Playing and Hand Wringing
• October Employment Data Likely Will Disappoint Market Expectations

No. 330: September Production and Housing Starts October, 19th, 2010 • Third-Quarter Production Growth Slowed and Housing Contracted
• Third-Quarter GDP Should Have Slowed, But the Heavily-Politicized and Guesstimated Series Virtually Is Worthless

No. 329: Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit and Debased Money October, 15th, 2010 • Dollar Debasement Fears Mount
• September Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.5% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Gain Reflected Seasonal Distortions from Year-Ago Clunkers More Than It Did a Happier Consumer
• August Trade Deficit Took 0.5% from Third-Quarter GDP

No. 328 September Employment and Unemployment, October, 8th, 2010 • Outright Contraction in September Payrolls Net of Temporary Census Workers
• Current Payroll Level Overstated by Roughly 550,000, Based on Announced Benchmark Revision
• Broad Unemployment Rates Soar
• September Unemployment Rates: U.3 at 9.6%, U.6 at 17.1%, SGS at 22.5%
• M3 Annual Decline Narrows

No. 327: Second-Quarter GDP Revision, September Employment Outlook September, 30th, 2010 • 2nd-Quarter GDP at 1.7%, GDI at 1.3%
• Census Jobs Reduce September Payrolls by Roughly 78,000
• New Online Help-Wanted Advertising Drops 2.6%

No. 326: Double-Dip, Housing, Durable Goods September, 26th, 2010 • Officially It Will Be a Double-Dip Recession
• Third-Quarter Contraction Suggested by Housing and Durable Goods Orders Data
• Stock Market Hypesters Grasping at Straws
• Gold Strength and Dollar Weakness Signal Problems Ahead

No. 325 CPI, PPI, Production, Household Income September, 17th, 2010 • August Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.5% (SGS)
• Production Down Except for Boost from Prior-Period Revisions
• Households Face Mounting Financial Stress
• Income Variance at Record High

No. 324: August Retail Sales September, 14th, 2010 • Boosted by Downside Revisions to July Retail Sales, August’s 0.4% Gain Still Was Not Statistically Meaningful
• Net of Higher Food and Gas Prices, “Core” Retail Sales Increased Less Than 0.1%

No. 323: Updated Outlook on Economy, Systemic Stability and Financial Markets September, 13th, 2010 • Protracted Economic Downturn Re-Intensifies
• Systemic Stability: “Tap-Dancing on a Land Mine”
• Risks of U.S. Dollar Instability and Systemic-Salvation Efforts Pose Severe Inflation Threat

No. 322: July Trade Deficit September, 9th, 2010 • July Trade Deficit Suggests Minor Impact for Third-Quarter GDP
• Year-Ago Reporting Games May Affect Upcoming Data

No. 321: August Employment and Unemployment September, 3rd, 2010 • August Unemployment: U.3 = 9.6%, U.6 = 16.7%, SGS = 22.0%
• August Payrolls Fall 54,000, Gain 60,000 Ex-Census Workers
• Better-Than-Expected Payroll Changes Were Not Statistically Meaningful

No. 320: Updated August Labor Market Outlook September, 2nd, 2010 • August Payroll and Unemployment Reporting Likely to Disappoint Expectations

No. 319: Second-Quarter GDP Revision August, 27th, 2010 • Second-Quarter GDP Revised to 1.6% from 2.4%
• Deteriorating Economic Data Eventually Should Disrupt U.S. Financial Markets

No. 318: July Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders August, 25th, 2010 • Housing Market Stress Deepens Irrespective of Wild Reporting
• Durable Goods Orders Almost Flat Despite Aircraft Boost
• Census Payrolls Down 116,000 in August

No. 317: July Housing Starts, Production and PPI August, 17th, 2010 • July Housing Starts Below Initial June Reporting, Suggestive of Third-Quarter GDP Contraction
• July Industrial Production Boosted by Seasonal Disruptions
• Annual PPI Inflation Rose to 4.2% in July

No. 316: CPI Inflation, Retail Sales, Trade and Liquidity August, 15th, 2010 • July Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.2% (CPI-U), 8.6% (SGS)
• Retail Sales Hint at Third-Quarter GDP Contraction
• Widening Trade Deficit Will Dampen GDP in Revision
• Economic and Liquidity Crises Continue

No. 315: Updated Outlook, July Employment and Unemployment August, 6th, 2010 • Re-Intensifying Depression Foreshadows Great Crises
• July Payrolls Fell 131,000, Gained 12,000 Ex-Census Layoffs
• June’s 100,000 Ex-Census Payroll Gain Revised to 4,000
• July Employment Dropped by 159,000 (Household Survey)
• July Unemployment: 9.5% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 21.7% (SGS)

No. 314: Updated July Employment Outlook August, 5th, 2010 • Labor Conditions Likely Worse than Consensus
• Timing for Next Phase of Crises Coming into Better Focus

No. 313: Second-Quarter GDP and Revisions July, 30th, 2010 • Worst Economic Downturn Since World War II Just Got Worse
• Bulk of First-Half GDP Growth Due to Inventories, Setting Up Likely Third-Quarter Contraction
• Lingering Market Hopes for Recovery Should Fade Quickly

No. 312: Durable Goods, Home Sales, Upcoming GDP Revisions July, 28th, 2010 • Restated Downturn Should Be More Severe
• Nonsense Home-Sales Reporting
• Roughly 144,000 Census Jobs Lost in July

No. 311: June Housing Starts July, 20th, 2010

• Housing Starts Show Bottoming-Bouncing, Approaching Renewed Decline

No. 310: Inflation and Production July, 16th, 2010 • Annual Consumer Inflation: 1.1% (CPI-U), 8.4% (SGS)
• Lower Gasoline Tempered June Inflation, but Watch Out for July’s Data
• June Industrial Production Flattened Out

No. 309: Retail Sales and Trade Deficit July, 14th, 2010 • Retail Sales Signaled Renewed Business Downturn, Again, in June
• Sales Falling at Roughly 7% Annualized Pace, Net of Inflation
• Trade Deficit’s Merchandise Component Should Sap 1.0% from GDP Growth

No. 308: Economic and Liquidity Update July, 9th, 2010 • Shills for Wall Street Are Busy
• Broad Liquidity Measures Remain Abysmal
• Unemployment Trends Show Severity of the Depression

No. 307: June Employment and Unemployment, Liquidity Update July, 2nd, 2010 • June Payrolls Jobs Fell 125,000, Gained 100,000 Net of Census Layoffs
• June Household-Survey Employment Dropped by 301,000
• June Unemployment: 9.5% (U.3), 16.5% (U.6), 21.6% (SGS)
• Payroll and Unemployment Changes Were Statistically Indistinguishable from Zero

No. 306: Update on Jobs Outlook for June July, 1st, 2010 • June Census Jobs Loss Revised to 230,000
• Another 94,000 Lost in Subsequent Week
• Employment Reporting Likely to Disappoint Expectations

No. 305: Economic Update, GDP Revision, Durable Goods June, 25th, 2010 • 69% of First-Quarter GDP Growth Was Inventory Build-Up, Annualized Final Sales Growth Slowed to 0.86%
• Unusually Large Late-GDP Changes in Advance of Next Month’s Annual GDP Revisions
• Softer than Advertised “Recovery” Data Should Accompany Onset of Renewed Downturn

No. 304: Census Jobs Loss, Home Sales June, 23rd, 2010 • Census Firings Cost June Payrolls Roughly 240,000 Jobs
• May New Home Sales Down 40.5% in Month after Major Downside Revisions to Earlier Reporting

No. 303: Inflation Update, Housing and Production June, 17th, 2010 Housing Starts Chart

• May Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 9.2% (SGS)
• Seasonal Factors Depressing Monthly CPI Reverse in June and July
• Early Signs Continue of Intensifying Business Contraction

No. 302: Retail Sales, Trade Deficit June, 11th, 2010 • Ski-Jump-Shaped Depression
• May Retail Sales Drop: Tentative Confirmation of Intensified Business Downturn
• April Trade Deficit: A Negative for Second-Quarter GDP

No. 301: Money Supply Update June, 7th, 2010 • 5.9% M3 Annual Decline Deepest Since Early-1930s Banking Crisis
• Post-World War II Record Drop in Inflation-Adjusted M3 Signals Intensifying Business Contraction
• Renewed Recession Will Set Stage for U.S. Solvency Crisis and Severe Inflation Threat

No. 300: May Employment and Unemployment June, 4th, 2010 • May Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 20,000 Net of 411,000 Temporary Census Hires and Fell by 31,000 after Revisions and Birth-Death Model Shenanigans
• May Household-Survey Employment Fell by 35,000
Irrespective of Census Hires
• Unemployment Rates Were Artificially Low Due to Census Effects: 9.7% (U.3), 16.9% (U.6), 21.7% (SGS)
• M3 Signal for Double-Dip Downturn Intensifies

No. 299: Employment Report Outlook and Some Updates June, 3rd, 2010 • 420,000 May Census Hires Assure “Strong” Jobs Report
• Consensus Estimates May Be Disappointed
• Continued Data Distortions Generated by Severity of the Economic Downturn

No. 298: GDP and New Orders for Durable Goods Revisions May, 27th, 2010 • Gross Domestic Income Continues Showing Slower Growth than Gross Domestic Product
• Massive Revisions to Durable Goods Orders
• Employment Set to Retrench Anew (Net of Census Impact)

No. 297: Inflation, Housing Starts May, 19th, 2010 • Market Fears of European Financial Instability Should Shift to Fears of U.S. Financial Instability
• Annual Inflation: 2.2% (CPI-U), 9.5% (SGS)
• Perils of “Core” and Seasonally-Adjusted Inflation
• Housing Starts Keep Bottom Bouncing

No. 296: Retail Sales, Production and the Deficits May, 14th, 2010 • Retail Gain Statistically Indistinguishable from Contraction
• Revisions Enhance Production Reporting
• Trade Deficit Remains Economic Negative
• Budget Deficit Widens Despite Gimmicks

No. 295: April Employment/Unemployment, Systemic Risks May, 7th, 2010 • Happy Assumptions and Census Hiring Help Payrolls
• April Unemployment: 9.9% (U.3), 17.1% (U.6), 22.0% (SGS)
• Real Annual Money Supply Contraction Deepens
• Worst Is Ahead for Economic and Solvency Crises

No. 294: First-Quarter GDP, Mounting Systemic Risks April, 30th, 2010 • GDP Growth Lacks Sustainability
• Economic and Systemic Risks Intensify

No. 293: Inflation and Gold, March PPI, Durable Goods, Home Sales April, 23rd, 2010 • PPI Showed Broadening Inflation Base
• Durable Goods Orders Suggest Bottom-Bouncing
• Home Sales Remain in Serious Trouble

No. 292: March Housing Starts, Industrial Production April, 16th, 2010 • Housing Still Bottom-Bouncing
• Production Set to Soften

No. 291: March CPI, Retail Sales, Trade April, 14th, 2010

• Annual Inflation: 2.3% (CPI-U), 9.5% (SGS)
• “Strong” Retail Sales Should Prove Fleeting
• Trade Deficit Widened / Recession Is Not Over

No. 290: Updated Liquidity and Economic Outlook April, 9th, 2010 • Mounting Liquidity Squeeze Constrains Broad Business Activity

No. 289: March Employment and Unemployment, Liquidity Crisis April, 2nd, 2010 • March Unemployment Rose to 9.8% Net of Census Hiring
• Official Reporting: BLS U-3 Held at 9.7%, U-6 Rose to 16.9%, SGS Rose to 21.7%
• March Employment Gain of 162,000 Was 114,000 Net of Temporary Census Hiring
• Economic-Deterioration Signal Intensifies

No. 288: Healthcare, GDP, Durables, Home Sales March, 25th, 2010 • Government’s Healthcare Takeover Will Depress Economy, Exacerbate Deficit and Inflation Woes
• Downside Revisions Loom for 2009 GDP
• Durable Goods Orders Gains Are Long-Term not Near-Term
• Home Sales Heavily Influenced by Foreclosures

No. 287: February CPI and PPI March, 18th, 2010 • February�s Annual Inflation: CPI-U (2.1%), SGS (9.4%)
• Oil Price Gyrations Contained February Inflation but Promise March Spike

No. 286: February Production and Housing March, 16th, 2010 • Bottom-Bouncing Continues
• Fault Lines in “Recovery” Begin to Show

No. 285: Outlook Update, Retail Sales, Trade Deficit March, 12th, 2010 • Retail Sales Revisions Boosted January Headline Gain but Reduced Reported Sales Levels
• Sales Still Bottom-Bouncing Net of Inflation
• January Trade Deficit Was GDP-Neutral
• Fleeting Census Jobs Creation Will Have Offsetting Losses

No. 284: February Employment and Unemployment March, 5th, 2010 • Payroll Drop of 36,000 was 51,000 Net of Census Hiring
• Broader February Unemployment Measures Rose: U.6 at 16.8% (up 0.3%), SGS at 21.6% (up 0.4%)
• Economy Remains Headed into Deepening Downturn

No. 283: Updated February Employment Outlook March, 4th, 2010 • Don’t Blame the Weather

No. 282: Federal Government 2009 GAAP-Accounting March, 1st, 2010 • 2009 GAAP-Deficit Narrowed to $4.3 Trillion
• Total GAAP-Based Obligations of $71 Trillion at Five-Times GDP Level
• Accounting for Government Bailouts Showed TARP Profit

No. 281: General Update, GDP, Durable Goods February, 26th, 2010 Chart of Adjusted Monetary Base

• 69% of 4th-Quarter’s 5.9% “Boom” Due to Nonfarm Inventories
• Economic and Financial Crises Are Not Over
• Fed Still Panicking Despite Happy Talk

No. 280: January CPI, PPI, Housing Starts, Production February, 19th, 2010 • Annual Inflation 2.6% (CPI-U), 3.3% (CPI-W), 9.8% (SGS)
• Quarterly Inflation Shifted from Fourth- to Second-Quarter 2009
• Economy Keeps Bottom-Bouncing as Intensified Contraction Nears

No. 279: January Retail Sales February, 12th, 2010 • January Retail Sales Gain Reflected Inflation and Seasonals

No. 278: Annual and December Trade Deficit February, 10th, 2010 • December Trade Deficit Should Knock 1.1 Percentages Points off 4th-Quarter GDP Growth
• Storm-Delayed Economic Reports

No. 277: Liquidity Crisis Update, Money Supply February, 8th, 2010 • Plunge in Broad Liquidity Continues
• Intensified Business Downturn Looms
• Monetary Base Surges to Near-Record High
• U.S. Economic and Financial Woes Remain Worse Than Rest of World

No. 276: Reporting Focus: January Employment and Benchmark Revision February, 5th, 2010 Nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision

• 1.36 Million Jobs Knocked off December Payrolls; Depression’s Job Loss Increased by 19%
• January Unemployment: 16.5% (U-6), 21.2% (SGS)
• Serious Jobs and Unemployment Deterioration in Months Ahead

No. 275: Employment Outlook Update, New Site Feature February, 3rd, 2010 • Revisions Allow for Unusual January Jobs Reporting
• Meaningful Payroll and Unemployment Deterioration Ahead
• New Site Feature: Content-Index Navigation Tool

No. 274: State of the Real World, Fourth-Quarter GDP January, 29th, 2010 Real Annual GDP Chart

• 4th-Quarter GDP “Boom” Sets Stage for Double-Dip
• 2009 Downturn Worst Since Great Depression
• Watch-Out for 2010 Federal Deficit!
• Durable Goods Orders Keep Bottom-Bouncing

No. 273: December PPI, Housing Starts, GDP Outlook January, 20th, 2010 • Annual PPI Inflation Hits 4.4%
• Housing Starts Keep Bottom-Bouncing
• Strong 4th Quarter GDP Report Would Set Base for Double-Dip Downturn

No. 272: December CPI, Industrial Production January, 15th, 2010 Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales

• December Annual Inflation 2.7% (CPI-U), 9.7% (SGS)
• Unusually Cold Weather Boosted December Production
• Fed Shows Recession Ended Mid-2009, but Double-Dip Is in Place

No. 271: December Retail Sales January, 14th, 2010 • Bad Seasonals Continue to Bloat Reported Retail Sales
• 2009 Holiday Season Was a Bust, both Before and After Inflation Adjustment, Using Normal Seasonal Factors

No. 270: December Employment Report January, 8th, 2010 • Broader December Unemployment Rates Notched Higher, U-6 at 17.3%, SGS at 21.9%
• December Household Employment Reported Down by 589,000
• December Payroll Employment Probably Shrank by About 500,000

No. 269: Distorted Seasonals, Employment Outlook January, 6th, 2010 • Depression-Induced Seasonal Factor Distortions Alter Recession’s Impact in Key Reporting
• Bad Seasonals Could Spike December Payrolls

No. 268: Double-Dip in Place December, 30th, 2009 • Tumbling Real M3 Promises Intensified Depression
• Major Double-Dip Downturn Should Be Obvious by Mid-Year 2010

No. 267: Third-Quarter GDP Revision December, 22nd, 2009 Gross Domestic Product Chart

• GDP Growth Still Overstated
• Economic and Liquidity Crises Face New Down-Legs

No. 266: November CPI, PPI, Production and Housing December, 16th, 2009 • Bad Seasonals Turn Data Topsy-Turvy
• Annual CPI-U Inflation Jumps to 1.8% (SGS 8.8%)
• November versus October Annual Inflation Swings Positive by 2.0% for the CPI, 4.3% for the PPI
• November Annual Real Retail Sales Were Unchanged
• November Housing “Gain” Statistically Not Different from Zero

No. 265: November Retail Sales, Inflation Surge, Data Distortions December, 13th, 2009 • Renewed Caution on Depression-Warped Data
• November Retail Sales Annual Gain of 1.9% Reflected Return of Inflation
• November Annual CPI Inflation Should Jump by About 2%

No. 264: November Employment, Monetary Base December, 4th, 2009

• Employment and Unemployment Not Improving, Despite Distortions from Seasonal Factors and Revisions
• Unemployment Rate U.3 at 10.0% (SGS 21.8%)
• Fed Boosts Monetary Base Anew

Hyperinflation Special Report (Update 2010) December, 2nd, 2009 • Economy and Financial System Face Eventual Great Collapse
• Government and Fed Actions Have Narrowed Hyperinflationary Great Depression Timing to Next Five Years
• High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Crisis Unfolding in Year Ahead

No. 262: U.S. GAAP Accounting Delayed, Employment Report Outlook December, 2nd, 2009 • Treasury Delays 2009 GAAP Statement for Two Months
• Employment Conditions Remain Bleak

No. 261: Third-Quarter GDP Revision November, 24th, 2009 • Lower GDP Growth Still Heavily Overstated
• 3rd-Quarter GDP at 2.8%, GDI at 2.0%
• “Reduced” Inflation Bloated Reported Activity
• Revised Salaries and Wages Soared as Employment Collapsed?

No. 260: Monetary Base and Contracting M3 November, 22nd, 2009 • Monetary Base Surge Stalls Near Record High
• Annual M3 Growth Could Turn Negative in December
• Continuing Liquidity Contraction Foreshadows Deepening Economic Downturn

No. 259 General Outlook, October CPI, PPI, Production, Housing November, 18th, 2009 • Annual October CPI-U Inflation -0.18% (+7.1% SGS)
• Formal Deflation Has Run Its Course
• Bottom-Bouncing Continued in Real Retail Sales, Housing and Production

No. 258: October Retail Sales November, 16th, 2009 • Reported October Retail Sales Boosted by Revisions and Inflation
• Third-Quarter GDP Growth May See Some Downward Revision

No. 257: Updated Trade Deficit, Credit, CPI Outlook November, 13th, 2009 • Jump in September Trade Deficit Places Downside Pressure on GDP Revision
• Annual CPI Inflation to Surge, Turning Positive by November
• Credit Squeeze Intensifies

No. 256: Updated General Outlook, Employment/Unemployment, Money Supply November, 6th, 2009 • Annual Payroll Loss Rivals End of World War II Production Shutdown
• Unemployment Jumps to 10.2% (22.1% SGS)
• Systemic Liquidity Problems Still Intensifying
• Fed Continues to Explode Monetary Base

No. 255: Brief Update - Friday’s Employment/Unemployment Release November, 4th, 2009 • Employment Situation Continues to Deteriorate

No. 254: Updated Economic Outlook, GDP, Durable Goods, Home Sales October, 29th, 2009 • Recession Is Not Over / Quarterly GDP Growth Is Not Sustainable, with 92% of Growth in Nonrecurring Factors
• Annual GDP Down 2.3% (5.7% SGS)
• 4th-Quarter GDP Should Resume Quarter-to-Quarter Decline
• Durable Goods Orders at 1997 Level
• Help-Wanted Advertising at New 58-Year Low

No. 253: GDP Outlook, Surging Monetary Base October, 27th, 2009 • Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High
• Recession Not Over Despite a Positive GDP Quarter

No. 252: General Outlook, Housing, Production and PPI October, 20th, 2009

• Key Indicators Continue Bottom-Bouncing at Low-Level Plateaus of Business Activity
• 10 Years of Production Growth Has Evaporated, All Post-World War II Housing Growth Is Gone
• Positive Quarterly 3rd-Qtr GDP Growth Would Not Mean Recession’s End
• PPI Annual Inflation Should Turn Positive by Year-End

No. 251: General Outlook, CPI and Retail Sales October, 15th, 2009 • September Annual Inflation -1.3% (CPI-U), 6.1% (SGS)
• CPI-U Inflation Spike Due by Year-End
• No Recovery: September Real Retail Sales Continued Bottom-Bouncing at Low-Level Plateau
• 10 Years of Retail Sales Growth Gone

No. 250: General Outlook and Trade Data Update October, 9th, 2009 • Bernanke Pushes Monetary-Base Panic Button
• M3 Headed for Still Weaker Growth
• Substance Behind U.S. Dollar Concerns and Gold Rally
• FY2009 Government Obligations Likely Hit $75 Trillion
• Trade Deterioration Should Be Minor Drag on 3q09 GDP
• Economic and Solvency Crises Continue, Inflation Risk Ahead

Flash Update October, 2nd, 2009

• BLS Revision Nightmare: March 2009 Payrolls Overstated by 824,000
• Birth-Death Model Falsely Boosting Jobs Reporting in Recession Environment
• Monthly Jobs Loss of 263,000 (Payroll Survey) versus Monthly Employment Decline of 710,000 (Household Survey)
• September Unemployment Rates: U.3 = 9.8%, U.6 = 17.0%, SGS = 21.4%

Flash Update September, 30th, 2009 • 2nd-Q GDP Decline Narrowed in Revision (to -0.8% from -1.0%), but GNP and GDI Contractions Deepened (GNP to -1.0% from -0.8%, GDI to -2.6% from -2.1%)
• Annual GDP Contraction Remained Worst of Post-World War II Era

Flash Update September, 25th, 2009 • Economic and Liquidity Crises Remain Ongoing
• No Recovery in New Orders or Housing
• Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High

Flash Update September, 16th, 2009 • U.S. Recession Is Not Over
• With Clunker Rebates in New Car Prices, Monthly CPI Gained 0.7% Instead of 0.4%
• CPI-U Annual Inflation -1.5% (SGS +6.0%)
• Industrial Production Boosted by Clunkers and Weather

Flash Update September, 15th, 2009 • 2.7% Retail Sales Jump Reflected Inflation and One-Time Clunker Spikes
• “Core” Retail Sales Up 2.0% (0.2% Net of Clunkers)
• Wholesale Inflation Soared with Oil

Flash Update September, 12th, 2009 • Annual Broad Money Growth Slowed Sharply in August
• Fed’s Beige Book Generally Indicated Severe Bottom Bouncing
• Irregular Cash-for-Clunkers Impact in Pending Economic and Inflation Numbers

Flash Update September, 10th, 2009 • Widening July Trade Deficit Played Some Catch-Up
• Structural Limitations: Consumer Unable to Support or Sustain Economic Growth

Flash Update September, 4th, 2009 • Economic Downturn Deepens Anew
• Annual Payroll Decline Is Worst of Downturn
• Monthly Payroll Decline Was 300,000, Net of Renewed Seasonal Factor Games
• Broad Unemployment Jumped 0.5% to 16.8% (U-6), 21.1% (SGS)

Alert September, 2nd, 2009 • Something Brewing in Systemic Solvency Crisis?
• No Substance to “Economic Recovery”
• U.S. Taxpayer-Subsidized Deflation
• Worse-Than-Expected Labor Statistics?

Flash Update August, 27th, 2009 • Gross Domestic Income Down 2.1% in 2nd Quarter, with Record 4.6% Annual Decline
• Housing and Durable Goods Not Signaling Recovery

Flash Update August, 18th, 2009 • July Housing Starts Showed Ongoing Depression
• Volatile PPI Reflected Unusual Seasonal Factors
• Journalists Too Overworked to Handle Poverty Report?

Flash Update August, 14th, 2009 • Official July CPI-U Annual Inflation of -2.1% (SGS +5.4%)
• Monthly and Annual CPI Should Jump in August
• Net of Bad Auto Seasonals, July Industrial Production Contracted

Flash Update August, 13th, 2009 • July Retail Sales Continued Historic Bottom-Bouncing
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Gained 0.22% versus Aggregate 0.05% Contraction
• 12-Month “Official” Federal Deficit Topped $1.3 Trillion, Gross Federal Debt Up $2.1 Trillion

Flash Update August, 7th, 2009 • Depression-Warped Seasonal Factors Improved Reporting of July Employment and Unemployment, Purchasing Managers Manufacturing
• Watch Out for Sharply Negative Economic Surprises Next Month
• Broad Money Growth Continues Signaling Ongoing Crises

Flash Update July, 31st, 2009 • GDP Shows Most Severe Recession Since Great Depression
• Second-Quarter GDP Annual Contraction Was Worst Ever
• Recession Is Not Ending
• Annual Durable Goods Plunge Continued In Great Depression Territory
• Broad Money Growth Still Slowing
• Unemployment Skew Next Week?

Flash Update July, 28th, 2009 Chart of existing home sales

• Depression Data Distortions Fuel Recovery Mania
• Statistically Insignificant Monthly Changes amidst Severe Bottom Bouncing
• Foreclosures Warp New and Existing Home Sales
• Shy of a Political Fix, Second-Quarter GDP Consensus Is Too Optimistic

Newsletter (Issue No. 51) July, 20th, 2009 • Current Recession Now Longest Since Great Depression
• June U-6 Unemployment Rate Topped 20% (25% SGS) in Michigan, Oregon, Nevada, California, South Carolina and Rhode Island
• Pressures Will Mount for New Stimulus and Bailouts
• Spreading Depression Creates Its Own Statistical Distortions
• Inflation Signs Begin to Surface
• U.S. Dollar Remains the Key to the Markets and Inflation
• The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises show no signs of abating, despite the happy hype out of Washington and Wall Street. While the pending second-quarter GDP estimate likely will show a narrowing quarterly contraction, such will be against a deepening annual downturn and revisions that should show the recession to have been not only longer and deeper than previously reported, but also the most severe recession since the shutdown of war production after World War II. Irrespective of media excitement around the fluttering of often statistically-insignificant or seasonally-warped monthly numbers, annual growth rates in key series have been holding at or pushing to new historic or post-war lows.

Flash Update July, 15th, 2009 • Inflation Accelerates (Annualized June Rate of 9.3%)
• June CPI-U Annual Deflation of 1.4% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.1% Inflation
• Quarterly Production and Real Retail Sales Contractions Confirm Ongoing Recession

Flash Update July, 14th, 2009 • June Retail Sales Gain Due to Rising Inflation
• “Core” Monthly Retail Sales Rose 0.26% versus Total 0.65%
• PPI Inflation Surge Reflects More Than Oil Prices, Annual Change Reverses Direction of 10-Month Downtrend
• Gross Federal Debt Up More Than $2 Trillion Year-to-Year

Flash Update July, 10th, 2009 • No Abatement in U.S. Economic or Solvency Crises
• May Trade Data Suggest U.S. Business Activity Suffering More Than Rest of World
• Broad Money Growth Slows Anew
• New Stimulus and Bailout Packages Likely

Flash Update July, 2nd, 2009

• June Jobs Loss Was 513,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias, Likely Topped 700,000 with Birth-Death Machinations
• Payroll Employment Growth Overstatement Could Top 2.5 Million per Year with Birth-Death Modeling
• Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.2%, Equal to 1958 Trough and Near 1949 Trough
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.6%

Flash Update June, 30th, 2009 • Leading Employment Indicators Suggest Continued Deterioration

Flash Update June, 25th, 2009 • GDP Revisions Little More Than Statistical Noise, but Watch Out for July 31st Benchmark Revisions
• Annual Plunge in Durable Goods Orders Continued
• Worst of the Downturn Still is Ahead

Flash Update June, 17th, 2009 • May CPI-U Annual Deflation of 1.3% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.1% Inflation
• Seasonal Adjustments Continue to Skew Inflation Reporting
• May Annual Production Fell at Fastest Pace Since Post-World War II Production Shutdown
• May Annual Decline in Housing Starts Continued Record Fall-Off, Monthly Gain Lacked Statistical Significance

Flash Update June, 11th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Plunge Worst of Post-World War II Era
• May “Core” Monthly Retail Sales Gained 0.15% versus 0.46% Total
• Corrected Merchandise Trade Data Added $20 Billion to 2008 Deficit
• Annual Surge in Gross Federal Debt Nears $2 Trillion, Spiking Treasury Yields

Flash Update June, 8th, 2009 • May M3 Money Supply Annual Growth Showed Minimal Uptick
• Fed’s Dollar Debasement Continues and Should Intensify

Flash Update June, 5th, 2009 • May Jobs Loss Was About 538,000 Net of Biases versus 345,000 Official Decline
• Birth-Death Model Upside Bias Increased by 27%
• Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.0%
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.5%

Flash Update May, 29th, 2009 • Dollar Debasement Progresses
• GNP Shows Intensifying Recession
• Most Economic Data Show Deepening Annual Plunges and Downside Prior-Period Revisions

Flash Update May, 20th, 2009 • Green Shoots of Inflation
• April Housing Starts in Great Depression-Like 54% Annual Tumble

Flash Update May, 15th, 2009 • April CPI-U Annual Deflation of 0.7% versus SGS-Alternate Estimate of 6.7% Inflation
• Seasonal Factors Mask Rising Monthly Energy Costs
• Peak-to-April Industrial Production Is Down a Depression-Like 16%

Flash Update May, 13th, 2009 • New Accounting Fraud for Monthly Federal Deficit Reporting
• Annual Retail Sales Plunge a Depression-Like 10.1%
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.1% versus Official 0.4% Decline

Flash Update May, 8th, 2009 • Better-Than-Expected April Jobs Report Had A Bad Odor to It
• 539,000 Jobs Loss was 605,000 Net of Revisions, 491,000 Net of CSFB
• Birth-Death Bias Showed Unusual Jump in April

Flash Update May, 4th, 2009 • No Recovery, As Employment Conditions Weaken
• Systemic Solvency Crisis Intensifies As Broad Money Growth Softens Further
• U.S. Dollar Selling Could Pick Up Along with Fed’s Ongoing Dollar Debasement Efforts

Flash Update April, 29th, 2009 • Not Adjusted for Inflation, Annual GDP Decline Is First Since 1958
• Adjusted for Inflation, Annual Decline in Gimmicked GDP Falls to 1982 Levels

Flash Update April, 27th, 2009 • “Adverse” Stress Test Assumptions Close to Standard CBO Projections
• Economy Is Not in Recovery
• More than Half of Existing Home Sales Are “Distressed”

Newsletter (Issue No. 50) April, 20th, 2009 • Worst Still Ahead for Economy and Solvency Crisis
• Faulty Data, Government/Fed Obfuscation Are No Basis for Rebuilding Confidence
• Do Not Mistake Declining Living Standards for Deflation
• Resurgent Inflation Likely to Be Triggered by U.S. Dollar Weakness
• Greenback’s Credibility Cracks as Fed Accelerates Dollar Debasement

Flash Update April, 15th, 2009 • March Annual CPI-U Declined by 0.38% (SGS Gained 7.3%)
• First Official Deflation in 54 Years (But They Don’t Calculate CPI Like They Did in 1955)
• Annual Industrial Production Collapse Worst Since Shutdown Following WWII
• First Quarter Industrial Production Plunged an Annualized 20%

Flash Update April, 14th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Contraction Remains at Post-World War II Era Lows
• “Core” March Retail Sales Down 1.4%
• PPI Takes Energy Cost Hit Despite Rising Oil Prices

Flash Update April, 9th, 2009 • Reported Trade Deficit Narrowing Suggests U.S. Recession Is Worse than Downturn in Rest of World

Flash Update April, 3rd, 2009 • Seriously Flawed BLS Payroll Reporting
• March Payroll Loss Was 750,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias, 749,000 Net of Reporting Revisions
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate at 19.8%

Flash Update March, 30th, 2009 • Broad Money Growth Still Slowing
• March Employment Conditions Deteriorated Sharply
• March Jobs Number Open to Positive Massaging

Flash Update March, 26th, 2009 • U.S. Dollar Moving Towards the Brink, Again
• 4th-Qtr Gross Domestic Income Down 7.5%

Flash Update March, 25th, 2009 • Durable Goods Orders Tumble in Record Annual Decline
• Pattern of Happy Spins Being Given to Volatile Monthly Data

Alert March, 23rd, 2009 • Fed’s Effort at Dollar Debasement Had Some Immediate “Success”

Flash Update March, 18th, 2009 • Annual CPI-U Inches Higher to 0.24% (SGS 7.7%)
• Housing Starts Annual Plunge at Historic Extreme

Alert March, 16th, 2009 • Swiss Franc’s Relative Strength Persists Despite Official Debasement Efforts
• “Absolute Confidence in Soundness” of U.S. Treasuries Is Hype
• Far From Over, U.S. Economic Downturn Still Is Unfolding

Flash Update March, 12th, 2009 • Annual Retail Sales Contraction Remains Worst of Post-World War II Era
• “Core” February Retail Sales Down 0.3%
• February 12-Month Rolling Federal Deficit at $955 Billion

Alert March, 9th, 2009 • Broad Money Supply Growth Slows in February, Suggesting Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Issues
• Fed Likely to Monetize Treasury Debt
• Other Than Crisis-Driven Dollar Demand, U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Are Sharply Negative and Deteriorating

Flash Update March, 6th, 2009 • February Payroll Loss Was 899,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Annual Percentage Contraction in Jobs at 50-Year Low
• SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate at 19.1%

Flash Update February, 27th, 2009 • Budget Containment and a Normal 2010 Economy Are Nonsense
• Economic Data Remain Consistent with 10%-Plus Hit to Business Activity
• Upward Revision to GDP Inflation
• Major Downward Revisions Likely to 2008 GDP
• Intensifying Systemic Solvency Crisis

Flash Update February, 20th, 2009 • CPI-U Just Escaped Formal Deflation, Again
• Housing and Real Retail Sales Annual Contractions at Historic Lows
• Industrial Production Annual Contraction Hit 10%

Newsletter (Issue No. 49) February, 16th, 2009 • Stimulus and Bailout Packages Will Not Reverse the Structural Depression or Resolve the Deepening Systemic-Solvency Crisis
• Fed Monetization of Stimulus-Related Debt Would Spike Inflation
• Cumulative 4.7 Million Jobs Lost to Trade Deficit
• U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Remain Bleak versus Rest of World
• It may be hard for the federal government to offer $787 billion dollars in stimulus without having a noticeably positive impact on economic activity, but it can be done. Despite prior hype on employment, annual growth in inflation-adjusted retail sales is the first major economic measure to trigger a legitimate “worst since the Great Depression” comparison. The economic contraction now is severe enough to consume the stimulus without affected business activity ever breaking above water. Also, too little of the stimulus package addresses the structural issues driving the downturn. Even if the structural problems were addressed, fundamental recovery would be measured in years, at best. Further, the systemic-solvency crisis is deepening again, with bailout exposures opening up to almost unlimited costs. That situation increasingly looks like it will involve the nationalization of major banks.

Flash Update February, 12th, 2009 • Reflecting Revisions and Inflation, January Retail Sales Bottom-Bounced at Low-Level Plateau
• “Core” Retail Sales up 0.7% versus Official 1.0%
• December Trade Deficit Suggested 4th-Qtr GDP Downward Revision

Flash Update February, 10th, 2009 • Pending Relief Packages of Limited Positive Impact

Flash Update February, 6th, 2009 • January Jobs Loss Was 716,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (Instead of Official 598,000 Loss)
• Downside Benchmark Growth-Pattern Revisions Were Mostly Pre-Election
• Alternate-Unemployment Rate Hits 18%

Flash Update February, 3rd, 2009 • Unusual Features in Upcoming Employment Report
• Annual Broad Money Growth Continues to Expand
• Economic Freefall Eventually Sees Some Bottom-Bouncing

Flash Update January, 30th, 2009 • Nominal GDP Contraction Worst in 50 Years
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contraction for
Durable Goods (43.3%)
• Monetary Base Growth Flattens Out (at 103%)

Flash Update January, 23rd, 2009 • Major Revisions Show Stronger Broad Money Growth
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contraction for Housing Starts (68.5%)
• Sharp Nominal Contraction Pending for 4th-Quarter GDP

Flash Update January, 16th, 2009 • CPI-U Dodges Deflation Bullet
• Depression-Like Annualized Quarterly Contractions for Real Retail Sales (17.1%) and Industrial Production (11.5%)
• Broad Money Growth Surge Intensifies
• Money Supply Velocity Also Likely in Upturn

Flash Update January, 14th, 2009 • Retail Sales Plummet Worse Than Headline Number
• Pattern Continues of Downward Revisions to Previously Stronger Headline Economic Numbers

Flash Update January, 9th, 2009

• December Jobs Loss Was 697,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (Instead of Official 524,000 Loss)
• Congressional Budget Office Estimates Depression Era-Like GDP Drop

Newsletter (Issue No. 48) January, 3rd, 2009 • Multiple-Dip Depression Unfolds
• Solvency Crisis to Engulf U.S. Government Finances
• Stimulus Efforts Would Enhance Hyperinflation Risk
• Broad Money Growth Spikes

By April, the rapidly deteriorating recession will be viewed commonly as the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Fearing same, the incoming Obama Administration is promising stimulus in the form of massive federal spending. Concerns about the government’s fiscal condition can wait until the economy recovers, we are being told. A similar pacifying assurance presumably extends to inflation concerns as well. Unfortunately, with the economy in a structural downturn and with the U.S. government effectively bankrupt, there can be no rapid or normal recovery. As inflationary pressures mount anew and the financial markets increasingly shun U.S. Treasuries, an inflationary depression can evolve quickly into a hyperinflationary great depression. Although hyperinflation became inevitable in the last decade, the onset of the process just recently was triggered by Fed and the Treasury actions in addressing the systemic solvency crisis. The process would be accelerated by unfettered and
unfunded government spending that appears to loom in early 2009.

Flash Update December, 31st, 2008 • M3 Growth Is Accelerating

Flash Update December, 23rd, 2008 • “Final” 3rd-Quarter GDP Estimate Showed Higher Inflation
• Big Contraction in Nominal 4th-Quarter GDP?

Alert December, 20th, 2008 • Growth Surges/Accelerates in Broad Money Components
• Monetary Base Up 97.5% Year/Year
• Fed Actions Begin to Kick In — For Better and Worse
• U.S. Dollar Remains Key to Markets

Flash Update December, 16th, 2008 • Annual CPI Slowed to 1.1% (9.3% SGS) in November
• November Real Retail Sales Down 8.3% Year-to-Year
• Production Falling at 10% Annualized Quarterly Pace
• Money Growth Beginning to Spike?

Alert December, 15th, 2008 • Treasury Reports 2008 Federal Deficit of $1.009 Trillion (GAAP-Based), $5.1 Trillion Including Social Security/Medicare
• Total U.S. Government Obligations at $66 Trillion

Flash Update December, 12th, 2008 • Recent Economic Growth Overstatements Evident in Post-Election Revisions • Retail Sales Series Signals Worse Times Ahead • November Inflation to Take Heavy Oil-Related Hit

Flash Update December, 5th, 2008 • November Jobs Plummet 732,000 Net of Revisions, Down 873,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Official Recession Start Is Late, As Usual
• Required Reserves Surge Anew

Flash Update November, 30th, 2008 • Employment Outlook Sinks
• 3rd-Qtr Gross Domestic Income Contracted Year-to-Year
• Broad Money Growth Stagnant in Latest Week

Flash Update November, 23rd, 2008 • Monetary Base Annual Growth Now at 75.5%
• Systemic Solvency Crisis Intensifies Anew
• Increased Nationalization of U.S. Banks Ahead?

Flash Update November, 19th, 2008 • Annual CPI Inflation Slowed to 3.7% (11.6% SGS) in October
• Inflation/Deflation Traditionally Measured in Terms of Annual Change
• Industrial Production, Housing Starts Showed Deepening Downturn

Newsletter (Issue No. 47) November, 14th, 2008 • Still-Intensifying U.S. Inflationary Recession
• Systemic Solvency Crisis
• Market Instability Not Contained
• Obama Faces Same Limited Options as Bush
• Hyperinflation Possible in 2009 •
Despite extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and other central banks and finance ministries, the global solvency crises, financial panics and market distortions and instabilities continue. While the collapse of a functional U.S. banking system has been avoided, so far, bank lending has not resumed meaningfully, and other weak links in the economy appear ready to break. Possible failures of the “Big-Three” U.S. automakers now are touted in the financial media. Where GM once boasted, “What is good for General Motors is good for America,” a failure there would be the ultimate symbol of structural destruction that has sapped U.S. economic activity for decades. Structural issues drove the economy into deep recession well before any crises exacerbations. With the economy in recession, oil prices down and the dollar stronger, deflation concerns abound. Yet, inflation ultimately is a monetary phenomenon, and the Fed’s recent monetary incontinence promises much higher inflation ahead, regardless of near-term CPI gyrations from the pre-election plunge in gasoline prices.

Flash Update November, 7th, 2008 • Bureau of Labor Statistics Plays Post-Election Catch-Up
• October 240K Payroll Loss: 419K Loss Net of Revisions, 308K Loss Net of Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
• Broad Unemployment Rate Highest of Current Series
• Monetary Base Surge Continues: Up 48.2% Year/Year

Flash Update November, 6th, 2008 • October Employment Conditions Should Show Marked Deterioration

Flash Update October, 30th, 2008 • Gimmicked GDP Overstatement Continues, Despite Reported Contraction
• GDP Inflation Hits 18-Year High
• “Recession” Dates Back to 4th-Quarter 2006

Flash Update October, 26th, 2008

• Bank Lending Picks Up
• Monetary Base Up 38.0% Year-to-Year
• Near-Term U.S. Debt Default Unlikely, Unless Lenders Request Non-Dollar Issuance
• Administration Signals Reporting of 3rd-Qtr GDP Contraction

Special Update October, 16th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession Remains Intact and Intensifies
• Federal Debt Jumps $1.25 Trillion Year/Year, $650 Billion in Six Weeks
• Inflation Holds Despite Oil Sell-Off
• 3rd-Quarter Real Retail Sales Plunge Annualized 10.1%, 4.2% Year/Year
• 3rd-Quarter Industrial Production Down for Second Consecutive Quarter, Year/Year

Flash Update October, 10th, 2008 • Latest Monetary Base Jumped 16.8% Year-to-Year
• September M3 Growth Expanded Year-to-Year and Month-to-Month

Alert October, 8th, 2008 • Fed and Treasury Continue Propping the System At All Costs (Particularly Inflation)
• Intensifying Inflationary Recession Concerns Overshadowed by Systemic Risks

Alert October, 3rd, 2008 • Fed Began Sidestepping No “Bailout” Before First House Vote
• M1 and M2 Annualized Surges of 800% and 200% are Panic Distortions (Offset in M3)
• Jobs Plunged by 219,000 Net of Concurrent-Seasonal-Factor Bias
• “Core” Inflation Turned Higher

Newsletter (Issue No. 46) September, 29th, 2008 • Washington Bailout Likely Will Not End Crisis • Cost of Saving the System Is Inflation • Inflationary Recession Deepens Rapidly • Gold Should Benefit from Inflation-Hedge and Safe-Haven Qualities
In terms of magnitude, global scope and the underlying complexity and interdependencies of troubled financial instruments, the systemic solvency upheaval roiling the U.S. and global financial markets is without precedence. The crisis is the natural outcome of decades of financial leverage being built upon financial leverage; of income variance being pushed even beyond that which preceded the 1929 financial panic…

Alert September, 26th, 2008 • Money Supply Begins to Reflect Intensifying Solvency Crisis
• Recession Deepens Despite Still-Bogus GDP Reporting
• Financial Storm Likely to Worsen, Risks Mount of Systemic Instability

Washington Journal, C-SPAN September, 25th, 2008

John Williams talks and takes call-in questions about how misreporting of government data has contributed to the current financial crisis.
Watch at the CSPAN Video Library

Alert September, 22nd, 2008 • Government Actions Will Spike Money Supply
• Highly Unlikely That the Financial Storm Has Passed
• Recession Was Well Underway Before the Housing/Mortgage Crisis Broke

Alert September, 17th, 2008 • Treasury and Fed Rev Up the Currency Printing Presses
• Has a Run on the System Begun?
• The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation

Flash Update September, 16th, 2008 • Annual August CPI-U at 5.4% (13.2% SGS)
• Industrial Production Tumbles Like We’re in a Recession
• CPI Locks in August and Annual Real Retail Sales Contractions

Alert September, 15th, 2008 • Systemic Risk Appears Intensified by Abandonment of Lehman
• Markets Face Extreme Volatility and Distortions, with Heavy Intervention

Flash Update September, 12th, 2008 • “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.1% Month-to-Month, 1.7% Year-to-Year
• PPI Absorbed Oil Selling with Minimal Annual-Inflation Impact
• Trade Revisions Show Delayed Import Reporting, Suggest Downward GDP Revisions

Flash Update September, 10th, 2008 • August M3 Estimated up 14% Year-to-Year, 0.4% Month-to-Month
• Bailouts Should Intensify Inflationary Pressures
• Unusual Systemic Risks

Flash Update September, 5th, 2008 • Employment/Unemployment Data Confirm Deepening Recession
• Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Suggests 123,000 July Jobs Loss
• M3 Growth Remains Positive but Slowing

Flash Update August, 28th, 2008 • Gross Domestic Income (GDP Equivalent) Is in Formal Recession
• New Orders for Durables Goods Sank Year-to-Year

Flash Update August, 25th, 2008 • Financial Storm Continues, per Bernanke
• Pending GDP Upward Revision Surge Still Nonsense

Flash Update August, 21st, 2008 • July M3 Expanded Month-to-Month, Year-to-Year
• Inflationary Recession Continues to Intensify
• Broad Outlook Unchanged

Flash Update August, 14th, 2008 • Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to 5.6% (13.4% SGS)
• Annual CPI-W Rose to 6.2%
• Real July Retail Sales Fell 0.9% Month/Month, Down 2.7% Year/Year

Newsletter (Issue No. 45) August, 13th, 2008 • Dollar Rally Should Prove Short-Lived — Underlying Fundamentals Deteriorating
• Extraordinarily High Systemic Risks — Depositors Moving to Cash?
• U.S. Treasuries at Risk of Downgrade?
• Economic Activity Tumbles as Inflation Intensifies
• GDP Revisions Suggest Shadow of Protracted Recession
• Despite orchestrated media and market hype to the contrary, there has been absolutely no positive shift in underlying fundamentals driving the still-unfolding economic, financial-market and systemic-stability crises.

Flash Update August, 13th, 2008 • Real July Retail Sales Continue Monthly and Annual Contractions
• Monthly “Core” Retail Sales Down 0.33% versus 0.12% Aggregate Contraction

ALERT August, 12th, 2008 • U.S. Dollar Strength Has No Fundamental Basis Other Than Temporary War Effects
• U.S. Dollar Has Not Bottomed
• Gold and Oil Prices Have Not Topped

Flash Update August, 1st, 2008 • July Payrolls Sink Year-to-Year
• Broad Unemployment Rate Surges to 10.3% from 9.9% (SGS 14.3%)
• Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Flips

Flash Update July, 31st, 2008 • GDP Report is Political Garbage
• Lowest GDP Inflation in 10 Years Generates Strong Growth Report
• Downward Revisions Put 4th-Quarter in Contraction

Flash Update July, 30th, 2008 • Systemic Instability Continues
• Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Show No Turnaround
• Pending Nonsensical GDP Growth Surge?

House Financial Services Hearing July, 28th, 2008 John Williams gave testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 24th.

Flash Update July, 22nd, 2008 • Special Note to Subscribers: Congressional Testimony
• Broad Money Growth Remains Inflationary
• Deepening Recession Should Be Evident in Pending Payrolls, New Orders
• No Recession per GDP Expectations, But …

Flash Update July, 16th, 2008 • Dire Implications for U.S. Markets, U.S. Budget Deficit
• Annual CPI-U Surges to 5.0% (SGS 12.6%)
• “Core” Inflation Numbers Not Believable
• Retail Sales and Industrial Production in Sharp Quarterly Contractions

Flash Update July, 15th, 2008 • “Core” June Retail Sales Fell 0.7% versus 0.1% Reported Total Gain
• Tax Rebate Benefit Evaporates
• June PPI Gain of 1.8% Remained Well Shy of Reality

Flash Update July, 10th, 2008 • Spike in Annual Inflation Due Next Week
• The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation
• Monetary Theory and Limits of Hard Data

Flash Update July, 3rd, 2008 • June Payrolls Turned Negative Year-to-Year
• Monthly Payrolls Dropped by 147,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias
• Broadest Unemployment Rate Jumps by 0.2%
• Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index “Gain” Due to Reweightings

Flash Update June, 30th, 2008 • Abysmal Business Data Continue
• Unprecedented Plunges in Consumer Confidence Measures
• Good Time for the Rest of the World to Dump the Dollar

Flash Update June, 22nd, 2008 • Industrial Production Contracts Year-to-Year
• Housing Starts in Steepest Annual Decline since Depths of 1990/1991 Recession
• No Signs of Abatement in Inflationary Recession

Flash Update June, 13th, 2008 • Annual Inflation Surge Begins (4.2% BLS, 11.8% SGS-Alternate)
• Monthly Inflation Still Understated
• General Outlook Unchanged

Flash Update June, 12th, 2008 • Core Retail Sales Up 0.86%
• Unusual Revisions and Seasonal Factors in Data

May 2008 Newsletter June, 10th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession and Banking Crises Continue to Intensify
• Market Fantasies of Contained Crises Begin to Fade
• Severe Inflation Surge in Offing
• [Reporting/Market Focus] Evidence Mounts for Manipulation of Key Headline Economic Numbers

• There is no question of the economy being in an intensifying inflationary recession. Market fantasies of a bottomed downturn and a banking system on the mend got a jolt of reality last week, and regardless of any further jolts of alternating market pressures, the longer range outlook remains bleak for U.S. equities, bonds and the dollar but remains brilliant for gold.

Flash Update June, 6th, 2008 • May Payrolls Plunged 134,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias
• Employment and Unemployment Reports Consistent with Deepening Recession

Flash Update June, 3rd, 2008 • A Case for Manipulation of Headline Payroll Employment Numbers

Hyperinflation Special Report June, 2nd, 2008 • Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase of Monetary Inflation
• Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early As 2010

Flash Update May, 29th, 2008 • First-Quarter GDI Growth Near Outright Recession
• Wall Street Spinmeisters Grasp for Straws as Business Contraction Intensifies

Flash Update May, 22nd, 2008 • U.S. Currency Now Backed by Collateralized Debt Obligations
• Seasonal Adjustments Used to Eviscerate Reported Inflation
• Recession Deepens

Flash Update May, 14th, 2008 • April’s Core Retail Sales Fell 0.3%
• Thank Goodness for Seasonal Factors and Collapsing Gasoline Prices

Flash Update May, 12th, 2008 • M3 Growth Slowed in April — Still at 1971 High
• March Trade Deficit “Improvement” Not Credible

Flash Update May, 2nd, 2008 • Chances of Economic Rebound Now Are Nil
• GDP and Jobs Data Appear Rigged
• Other Numbers Confirm Intensifying Inflationary Recession

April 2008 Newsletter April, 29th, 2008 • Inflationary Recession and Banking Crises Intensify
• 4th-Quarter 2007 Gross Domestic Income Contracted 1.0%
• Covert Intervention in Currency and Gold Markets Likely
• Underlying economic and banking system fundamentals rapidly are getting worse, not suddenly better as touted in Wall Street’s fantasies. Another tall tale is of the Fed’s valiant fight against recession, while containing inflation. Now that the economy has been turned, the story goes, the Fed can slowdown or eliminate its easing so as to concentrate on its inflation fight. What nonsense! The Fed’s primary concern remains preventing a systemic financial collapse; everything else is secondary. The Fed has very limited ability at present either to stimulate the economy or to contain inflation, despite severe problems in both areas.

Flash Update April, 23rd, 2008 • Is The First-Quarter GDP Fix In?
• Oil Prices Cannot Double Without Serious Consequences

Flash Update April, 16th, 2008 • Inflation Fantasy
• Real Retail Sales Contracted an Annualized 4.2% in First Quarter
• First-Quarter GDP Contraction Locked In?

Flash Update April, 14th, 2008 • March “Core” Retail Sales Unchanged for Month, Down Year-to-Year
• Trade Data Enhance Prospects for 1st-Quarter GDP Contraction

Flash Update April, 4th, 2008 • Heavily Gimmicked Payroll Contraction Was Much Worse in Reality
• Other Key Data Also Confirm Sharply Deteriorating Inflationary Recession

Flash Update March, 30th, 2008 • Money Growth Continues Surging
• Cautions on Home Sales and Price Data
• Treasury and Fed Will Accept Any Cost to Save System

Flash Update March, 24th, 2008 • It’s Not Even Close to Being Over
• Inflationary Recession and Systemic Solvency Crisis Remain
• Gold Buying and Dollar Dumping Still Are Nascent

Flash Update March, 18th, 2008 • Fed Panic Continues in Pursuit of Systemic Salvation
• Inflation Understatement Used to Justify Fed Easings?
• Industrial Production Plunge Could Set Second Timing-Point for Official Recession

February/March 2008 Newsletter March, 16th, 2008 • Irrespective of Any Looming Central Bank or Central Government Interventions or
Other Activity, the Financial-Economic-Systemic Crisis Is Going to Get Much Worse
• Fed Abandons Inflation Fight
• Depression or Recession Depends on Depth of Downturn
• Gold Buying and Dollar Selling Muted by Covert Intervention?
• The systemic solvency/liquidity crisis has intensified at an accelerating pace, with three major, emergency Federal Reserve actions seen in the eight days through Friday. As we go to press Sunday afternoon, no new actions have been announced, but circumstances are so unstable that most anything is possible, including massive interventions in the markets as well as unconventional actions by central banks or central governments, coordinated or otherwise. Flash Updates or Alerts will be posted as needed to address developments.

Flash Update March, 14th, 2008 • February’s Unchanged CPI Not Credible

Flash Update March, 13th, 2008 • “Core” Retail Sales down 0.55% versus 0.56% Decline in Full Series
• Budget Deficit Surges

Flash Update March, 11th, 2008 • Solvency Crisis Deteriorates

Flash Update March, 10th, 2008 • Fed Sets Currency Printing Presses at Full Blast
• February M3 Growth at Record 16.8%

Alert March, 5th, 2008 • M3 Growth Hits All-Time High
• Hints of Systemic Unraveling Suggest Unusual Problems
• Risks Mount of Non-Traditional Federal Reserve/Treasury Actions

CNN Money Interview February, 28th, 2008

John Williams is interviewed on CNN by Greg Hunter. The record growth in M3 is discussed and its implications for future inflation. Click here or on the image to view the interview.

Flash Update February, 28th, 2008 • Recession Will Not Contain the Inflation Problem
• Money Growth Appears to be Surging
• Bernanke Remains Focused on Banking System Solvency, or Lack of Same

Flash Update February, 20th, 2008 • Monthly CPI Surge of 0.64% Masked by Seasonal Factor Revisions
• January Annual CPI Inflation at 4.28% (11.8% SGS-Alternate)
• Revisions Show Stronger Inflation

Flash Update February, 16th, 2008 • Money Supply Growth Surges Anew
• Nonborrowed Reserves Plummet Further
• SGS Will Continue Abandoned Government Economic Indicators Service
• Financial Crises Intensify

Flash Update February, 13th, 2008 • Real Retail Sales Continue Year-to-Year Collapse
• Core Retail Sales Up 0.11% for the Month

January 2008 Edition February, 11th, 2008 • Fed Saves the System — Almost
• As Fed Lending to Banks Tops Pre-1933 Bank Holiday
• Inflationary Recession Continues to Intensify
• Weak Economy Does Not Mean Lower Gold Prices
• Perils of Trying to Mimic Bad Government Data
• But for systemic intervention and manipulations by the Federal Reserve, it appears we might be contemplating a collapsed U.S. banking system and a looming deflationary great depression that could have dwarfed the bad times of the 1930s. Such is the good news. The bad news is that with those same systemic interventions, the Fed is locking in a hyperinflationary great depression in the decade ahead, with the turmoil possibly breaking by 2010 or earlier.
• Also, this month’s Reporting/Market Focus examines the Payroll Employment Benchmark Revision.

Flash Update February, 5th, 2008 • Mr. Bernanke Dispatches the Helicopters
• Solvency and Liquidity Problems Continue
• Fed Emergency Actions Are Keeping Banking System Afloat

Flash Update February, 1st, 2008 • Recession in the Numbers
• M3 Growth Appears To Be Firming Again

Flash Update January, 28th, 2008 • Outright Recession Reporting Unlikely for 4th-Quarter GDP or January Jobs
• Inflation and Dollar Concerns Ignored by Fed

Alert January, 22nd, 2008 • Fed Panic Indicates Mounting Instabilities
• Currency, Gold and Oil Market Intervention Highly Likely

Flash Update January, 19th, 2008 • Gimmicked Stimulus Cannot Reverse Structural Downturn
• Quarterly Industrial Production Contracted
• Housing Starts Plunge
• CPI Scuttled Annual Retail Sales

Flash Update January, 15th, 2008 • Retail Sales Revisions Show Sharper Downturn
• Inflation Irregularities Also Signal Reporting Distortions

Flash Update January, 13th, 2008 • Recession Recognition Settles In
• Moody’s Cautions on U.S. Credit Rating
• December M3 Growth at 15.2%

Flash Update January, 6th, 2008 • The Tempest Intensifies
• December Payrolls Really Contracted
• U.6 Unemployment Rate Surged to 8.8%
• Money Growth Remains a Problem

December 2007 Edition January, 2nd, 2008 • Actual 2007 Federal Deficit Topped $4.0 Trillion
• Fed Allows Strongest Money Growth in 36 Years
• Inflationary Recession Intensifies Sharply
• Dollar and Gold Breathers Are Proving Short-Lived
• Solvency Crisis Intensifies as System Careens Towards Economic and Financial Disaster
• Pushing the system ever nearer to the brink of the ultimate liquidity crisis, the Fed’s December 11th easing, albeit minimal, played to the Wall Street speculators, not to the increasingly troubled global community holding large quantities of a rapidly-debasing U.S. dollar. Those not-so-happy dollar owners can see the U.S. economy sinking quickly into an inflationary recession, with the U.S. banking system facing a solvency crisis and the U.S. central bank playing games with itself. Such portends very difficult times for the greenback and the U.S. financial markets in 2008. The gold and silver markets, however, will be primary beneficiaries of these troubles.

Flash Update December, 28th, 2007 • Economic Data Take Successive Hits
• Help-Wanted Advertising Plunges to Lowest Level Ever

Flash Update December, 18th, 2007 • Actual 2007 U.S. Federal Deficit at $1.2 Trillion, $5-Plus Trillion on Consistent Basis

Flash Update December, 15th, 2007 • Annual CPI Inflation at 4.3% (SGS-Alternate CPI 11.7%), PPI at 7.2%
• Industrial Production Suggests Fourth-Quarter Contraction

Flash Update December, 13th, 2007 • November “Core” Retail Sales Gained 0.78% versus 1.22% Non-Core
• Prior Food and Energy Inflation Revised Higher

Flash Update December, 7th, 2007 • Gimmicks Mask November Payroll Contraction
• SGS-Ongoing M3 Annual Growth Rises Again in November
• Official CPI Annual Inflation Could Break 4% Next Week
• Fed’s Quandary Remains

Flash Update December, 2nd, 2007 • What Is Scaring The Fed?
• GDP Numbers Are Utter Nonsense
• Other Data Show Tumbling Economy

November 2007 Edition November, 26th, 2007 • Inflation Surges as Economic Activity Plunges
• System Nears Abyss and Fed Moves to Sit on Its Hands Again
• Dollar and Gold Movements Are Just Beginning
• Wall Street Pushes Hard for Interest Rate Fix That Cannot Work and May Not Happen
• In fairness, there is little that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can do, except to play out a losing hand. It was a hand laid off on him by Alan Greenspan, aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress and recent Administrations. As dependent as a drug addict on his next fix, the U.S. stock market is addicted to interest rate cuts, and the pressures on the Fed for another fix are tremendous. Yet, the Fed continues to signal, as clearly as it signals such things, that there is no rate cut coming.

Flash Update November, 19th, 2007 • Annual Inflation Surge Should Continue
• Inflation-Adjusted (SGS)Peak Gold Price Is $6,030

Flash Update November, 14th, 2007 • October "Core" Retail Sales Unchanged
• Data Massaging Gets Worse as Energy Prices Collapse(?)

Flash Update November, 9th, 2007 • October M3 Growth Breaks to New 36-year High
• Trade Numbers Again Appear Massaged
• Beware Next Week's Surge in Annual Inflation!
• The System Begins to Crack

Flash Update November, 2nd, 2007 • Data Appear Massaged as Market Manipulation Tool
• October Payrolls Fortuitously Show No Need for Further Easing
• Household Employment Plunges by 250,000

Flash Update October, 31st, 2007 • Fed Action Likely Foreshadows Jobs Report
• GDP Report Fundamentally Was Nonsense

October 2007 Edition October, 29th, 2007 • Inflation Indicators Surge While Recession Signals Mount
• Anticipated Fed Easing Pummels Real-World Markets
• Dollar Tanks, Oil and Gold Soar and Funding Crisis Continues
• Wall Street's Pollyannas Ignore Darkening Fundamentals
• With all-time high oil prices topping $90 per barrel, with the U.S. dollar indices at record lows and under selling pressure, and with the SGS-Ongoing M3 annual growth at a 36-year high of 14.7%, the near-term inflation outlook is turning about as bleak as it gets. On the economic front, annual growth in new orders for durable goods, housing and employment all are generating new, or confirming prior, recession signals. This is despite overstatement of some recent economic activity in the employment data apparently aimed at removing some pressures on the Fed to ease. Nevertheless, the markets are expecting a quarter-point fed funds rate cut on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) most likely will follow market expectations, in that it has had some hand in setting the consensus outlook, and the U.S. central bank likely will look to be as non-disruptive to the markets as possible. Even so, current expectations already are roiling the currency markets. Any rate cut beyond consensus could prove particularly disruptive for the U.S. dollar. At some point — and that point may have been reached — Fed easing will become counterproductive, pummeling domestic U.S. liquidity. Where Wall Street, Administration and Fed efforts appear to be concentrated on continued artificial propping of equity prices, a dollar-induced liquidity crunch would hit both the equity markets and the credit markets hard. Despite increasing volatility in this unsettled environment, the stock market has held up remarkably well, so far. Gold and dollar prices already are at levels that risk inviting short-lived central bank interventions.

Flash Update October, 21st, 2007 • Watch the Greenback!

Flash Update October, 17th, 2007 • Annual CPI Jumps to 2.8% in September

Flash Update October, 14th, 2007 • Gimmicked Data Appear Aimed at Reducing Pressures on Fed for Another Easing
• September M3 Annual Growth Hit 14.7%
•
Watch Out for CPI Annual Inflation Surge!
• Twenty years ago this coming week, a new Federal Reserve Chairman faced a financial panic that included the worst one-day stock market crash ever seen in the U.S. markets. Alan Greenspan had become the U.S. central banker in August of 1987, raised rates in September in an effort to bolster the flailing U.S. dollar, and the markets crashed in October. The crash was due to an extraordinary confluence of factors, some of which were of Mr. Greenspan's making, some of which were of Treasury Secretary James Baker's making, and some of which came to a head after festering for decades. Whatever one may think of the former Fed chairman, his actions following the panic did help to contain it and likely side-stepped a total financial-market meltdown, at that time. As will be discussed in greater detail in the upcoming October SGS, those same actions, however, also underlie and ultimately set-up the even greater crisis faced by current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The roiling of the U.S. dollar market following the Fed's recent easing is why the Fed now likely will try to avoid further interest rate cuts. At risk is the financial-market meltdown that Alan Greenspan carried for so long in his nightmares. The liquidity crisis still is unfolding, the economy remains in a deteriorating inflationary recession, and the Fed has few if any viable options open to it. One tool remaining in the Fed's and Administration's arsenal of financial market manipulating gadgets, however, is the rigging of key economic reporting. It was used back in 1987; it appears to be in play, today.

Flash Update October, 7th, 2007 • Market Mania Fueled by Data Touts
• M3 Annual Growth Highest Since November 1971

Flash Update October, 5th, 2007 • September Jobs Data Cannot Be Believed
• September M3 Annual Growth Likely to Top 14.5%

September 2007 Edition September, 23rd, 2007 • |Bernanke's Tap Dancing on the Dollar Landmine Triggers Detonation
• The Dollar Matters, and Its Sell-Off Is Just Beginning
• It's Inflation and Recession, Not Inflation or Recession
• Manic Stocks Ignore Dollar, Oil and Gold
• Key Economic Reporting Massaged as Liquidity Crisis Deepens
• An old-fashioned bank run in the U.K.? The U.S. and Canadian dollars at parity? Saudi Arabia considering a break with the U.S. Dollar? If you tap dance on a land mine long enough, odds favor an unhappy ending. A good dancer can buy time, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke bought about as much time as he could, having been set up by his predecessor with irreconcilable economic and financial problems. Bernanke might have forestalled the unfolding dollar crisis a bit further with just a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target, but the 50 basis point move opened Bernanke's Box of U.S. Dollar and inflation unthinkables. The reality is ugly, and like Pandora — who opened a jar unleashing a variety of evils upon the world — Mr. Bernanke will find it very difficult, if not impossible, to push his newly activated nightmares back into the box. With both recession and inflation woes in place for some time, the inflationary recession is deteriorating at an accelerating pace, exacerbated, not triggered, by the still unfolding systemic liquidity crisis.

Flash Update September, 17th, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Deepens
• System is as Vulnerable as at Any Time Since 1929 to 1933

Flash Update September, 9th, 2007 • Consistently-Adjusted August Payrolls Plunged 82,000
• Annual M3 Growth Hit 14% in August
• Inflationary Recession Still Befuddles a Fed Set to Ease
• Recession Recognition Gains Political Correctness
• When the popular media and consensus economists start talking recession, usually an economic downturn already has been underway for a year or so. The 2000 recession gained rapid recognition following 9-11, but the terrorist attacks did not trigger the downturn. The recession had been in place for over a year; the attacks only deepened an ongoing contraction. In like manner, the current recession has been underway for well over a year, but it was not triggered by the liquidity crisis that erupted in August, only intensified by it. The impact of the liquidity problems still will not show up in most economic data until next month. The exceedingly weak August payroll survey was conducted before the crisis had much impact. What appears to have happened was that someone in the Administration decided to recognize the recession and released weak numbers either to force or to help accommodate the Fed in justifying an imminent easing. Yet, there also is a worsening inflation problem, with high oil and food prices, a weakening U.S. dollar and exploding money supply growth. And, then, there also is the threat of U.S. dollar dumping with the U.S. financial markets dependent on foreign capital for liquidity.

Alert September, 6th, 2007 • Money Supply Growth Explodes

Flash Update September, 2nd, 2007 • Systemic Liquefaction Boosts M3 Growth to 34-Year High
• Ongoing Extreme Income Variance Reported for 2006
• Financial System Remains Highly Unstable
• Chairman Bernanke Keeps Tap Dancing on That (Dollar) Landmine
• The liquidity crisis continues, and the financial system is groaning under the strain. In the weeks ended August 15th, 22nd and 29th, respectively, seasonally-adjusted (unadjusted is little different) commercial paper outstanding plunged by $91 billion, $90 billion and $63 billion. As other Federal Reserve reporting starts covering the crisis period, key data are showing some impact of Fed actions. For example, seasonally-unadjusted discount window borrowings by banks, following the Fed's heavily touted discount window actions, jumped from a daily average of $6 million in the two weeks ended August 15th, to $1.301 billion in the two weeks ended August 29th. M2 jumped a seasonally-adjusted $43.6 billion in first reporting of the week ended August 20th, up at an annualized growth rate of 36.4%. That, combined with sharp increases in non-M2 components of M3, indicates a spike in annual growth for the SGS-Ongoing M3 August measure, discussed below. Also, the Fed still seems to be enforcing an informal 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate, per the accompanying graph. On the recession front, the phony 4.0% GDP growth was reported as expected. At the same time, help-wanted advertising — a much more reliable economic indicator — plunged to a 49-year low. Through all this, the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable last week. Such tranquility should prove short-lived.

Alert August, 26th, 2007 • Effective Fed Funds Target is 4.75%
•5.00%
• Bernanke's Tactics Not Working Well
• Financial Tempest's Eye Wall Stalls Temporarily Shy of Landfall
• Rigged Data Provide Inexpensive Market Intervention
• Fed Chairman Bernanke's efforts to stabilize the U.S. financial system have met with minimal success that should prove short-lived. On the plus side has been temporary relative stability in the equity market, aided by extraordinary jawboning and data manipulation, along with market manipulations of the Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the Plunge Protection Team) as indicated by Treasury Secretary Paulson. On the downside, the liquidity crisis appears not to be contained. Obviously planted stories in the
financial media have touted the Fed's "clever" new approach to liquidity
crisis management and how it addresses "moral hazard." Having the Fed
address moral hazard in the financial markets is like having a whorehouse
madam lecture her girls on the virtues of virginity. Moral hazard is not a
primary concern to the Fed when the system is at risk. The planted stories
also explain how there is no need to cut the targeted Fed Funds rate. While
there are good reasons not to cut the Fed Funds rate, suggesting it will not
happen is ludicrous when the Fed already has done it, as shown below. The
Fed Funds shell game is aimed at balancing the needs of short-term Wall
Street hype, deemed necessary to goose the stock market, against an
extremely serious need to prevent a massive U.S. dollar sell-off. With the
economy in an inflationary recession, with the greenback showing new cracks
in the last several days, and with the stock market just a month away from
squirrelly season, the negative turmoil in the financial markets hardly has
begun.

August 2007 Edition August, 19th, 2007 • Terrible Financial Tempest Nears Landfall
• Fear of Bank Runs Appeared to Force Bernanke into His Tap-Dancing-on-the-Dollar-Landmine Routine
• Deteriorating Inflationary Recession Promises Greater Liquidity Woes
• Key Reporting Appears Shifted to "Let's Not Hurt the Markets" Mode
• The systemic liquidity crisis began running out of control last week, with stories of a run on a major bank. Keep in mind that there is not enough physical cash in the system to handle a major bank run in the traditional sense (see March 2007 SGS). Circumstances became dire enough to force Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke into publicly visible actions, announcing a 50-basis-point cut in the discount rate and starting to play a three-card monte game with the federal funds rate. Stocks rallied Friday in response, but the Fed's actions have set the stage for a massive dollar sell-off, which can frustrate lower market rates. With the economy in a deepening, inflationary recession, and with the first major Atlantic hurricane of the season within striking range of Gulf of Mexico energy infrastructure, financial-market turmoil likely has only just begun to unfold.

Alert August, 12th, 2007 • Systemic Liquidity Problems Turn Ugly
• Communist China Fires First Dollar Salvo
• Given Deepening Recession, Financial Market Woes Are Just Beginning
• July M3 Growth Holds at 13%
• Last week saw extraordinary developments, with a widening systemic liquidity crisis forcing central banks to reaffirm their statuses as lenders of last resort. At the same time, Communist China fired its first serious salvo against U.S. financial market dependence on foreign capital, and Washington appears to have capitulated to early demands. With the U.S. economy in a deteriorating, inflationary recession, and with Mr. Bernanke possibly facing his two other worst nightmares at the same time, one can make the case that the negative turmoil in the U.S. financial markets and for the U.S. dollar are just beginning.

Flash Update August, 5th, 2007 • July Jobs Report Shows Managed Numbers
• July Annual M3 Growth Notches Lower to 12.8%
• July Financial-Weighted Dollar at All-Time Low
• Systemic Problems Begin to Surface
• Last week saw mounting financial-market stress as an increasing number of firms indicated losses from or difficulties with mortgage- and asset-backed securities and collateralized-debt obligations. Circumstances are exacerbated by an intensifying inflationary recession, and market disorders should get much worse. It would not be surprising if the Fed found itself being called upon, or felt the need, to provide some systemic liquefaction. Still missing from the unfolding crisis, however, remains heavy flight from the U.S. dollar, which will come sooner rather than later. So far, flight to safety and quality has been into the dollar and into Treasury securities, but that will become a flight out of the greenback, particularly if the Fed moves to liquefy the system. Then, pressures on the U.S. central bank will shift heavily in favor of raising interest rates to defend the dollar. On the economic front, last week's data showed not only weakening business conditions, but also indications of data manipulation in the payroll survey.

Alert July, 29th, 2007 • Reported GDP Rebound was Politically Convenient
• 2nd-Quarter GDP Contracted 0.9% Net of Revisions
• Signs of Imploding Economy Mount
• Oil Price a Penny Shy of Record
• Stock Market Swoon Foreshadows Much Worse
• The U.S. financial markets will face massive and possibly panicked sell-offs in stocks, bonds and the U.S dollar, along with an explosive rally in the price of gold. Timing remains the issue, but this week's break in stock-market psychology has moved the odds strongly and solidly in favor of looming market meltdowns within a six-to-nine month horizon. Circumstances remain fluid enough, though, that given the right confluence of negative factors — as discussed below — the markets could spiral into the abyss at anytime, including within the next week or so. Faced with short-term financial-market and political pummeling, President George Bush sought a breather with the second-quarter GDP numbers. He and his spinmeisters boasted of U.S. economic growth rebounding to 3.4%, from the first quarter's 0.6%, but the improved numbers were just figments of the imaginations of officials at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other reporting showed rapidly deteriorating business activity, while inflation prospects took a new blow.

June / July 2007 Edition July, 23rd, 2007 • U.S. Dollar Woes Broaden Rapidly
• Systemic Liquidity Shows Some Cracks
• Bernanke Makes Case For Fudging Inflation Data as Fed Fumbles Its Figures
• Oil Pushes Record Highs as Economy Continues Tanking
• Stock Market Turmoil, Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Move Ever Closer
• Against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary recession, the dollar has started taking some early and heavy blows. The sub-prime mortgage difficulties have gained media prominence, but they are just the beginning of difficulties for mortgage and other asset-backed securities. Meanwhile, the Fed keeps sitting on its hands, whistling a tune that inflation is not a problem so long as the public does not see it. At the same time, the U.S. central bank appears to be having trouble tracking the balance sheets of commercial banks. With ongoing annual M3 growth at 13%, alternate CPI at 10.3% and alternate GDP down about 2.2%, apparent complacency by the Fed and euphoria in the record-topping and increasingly volatile equity markets are surreal. Growing recognition of the disconnection between government numbers and economic reality should have even the Wall Street Pollyannas a little bit on edge, as heavy dollar selling and a booming gold market begin moving perhaps a little too close for comfort.

Flash Update July, 11th, 2007 • Revision and Seasonal-Adjustment Games Help Obfuscate Employment Reality
• Consistent Seasonals Suggest 107,000 June Jobs Gain (Not 132,000)
• To maintain the reported 2,000,000 (exact) annual jobs growth in place for revised seasonally-adjusted May 2007 payrolls, monthly jobs gain reporting needs to be targeted by the Bush Administration at 167,000 per month. In contrast, the Clinton Administration targeted 250,000 per month (3,000,000 per year) for an extended period of time. Perhaps for fear of rattling the credit markets, however, initial monthly reporting typically has been
"understated" over the last year or so, followed in subsequent months by major upward revisions to prior reporting. If this pattern is not a machination of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and if the later numbers are accurate, not fabrications, the BLS would do well to suspend its initial reporting of these numbers, rather than to continue misleading the public and the markets with such poor quality reporting.

Flash Update July, 1st, 2007 • Recession Signals Deepen as Inflation Pressures Mount
• Help-Wanted Advertising Falls to New Cycle and 50-Year Lows
• May's help-wanted advertising index plummeted to 27, from 29 in April, hitting new cycle and 50-year lows. After allowing for the Internet's siphoning meaningful volume away from the print media, the renewed plunge in the current data still signals a sharp weakening in current economic activity and could be a
harbinger of weaker-than-expected June employment data due for release on July 6th. There were no happy surprises in other economic releases last week. On the price front, ongoing M3 annual growth for June looks like it was close to matching May's pace, while oil prices moved higher, again, and the Fed fretted a little more openly about its inflation worries.

Flash Update June, 26th, 2007 • Last Month's Unusual Housing "Surge" Evaporates
• Fed Remains Hamstrung Despite Mounting Dollar and Systemic Liquidity Risks
• Sporadic and irregular "positive" economic reports of the last month are proving fleeting, as I suggested, with some numbers revising sharply to the weak side. The housing numbers, for example, look again like they are in the middle of deepening recession.

Flash Update June, 17th, 2007 • Alternate CPI Notches up to 10.3% Annual Inflation
• May M3 Annual Growth at 13.3%
• Industrial Production Falters, Retail Sales Get Seasonal-Factor Boost
• Inflationary Recession Deteriorates Anew
• With May CPI and PPI topping expectations, and with industrial production faltering, the combination of inflation and recession — a disquieting concept for the financial markets — is not about to disappear. Inflation factors appear to have been rattling the credit markets recently, but the rise in long-term U.S. rates likely reflects more of a waning foreign enthusiasm for buying U.S. Treasuries, than it does expectations of a pending U.S. economic boom. Any such expectations should disappear with economic reporting in the month
or two ahead.

May 2007 Edition June, 6th, 2007 • GDP Contracted Net of Nonsensical Personal Consumption Surge
• Seasonal Factor Distortions Boosted Payrolls Again
• M3 Growth at 33-Year High
• Fed Remains Impotent
• Stock Market Turmoil, Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Just Matter of Time
• Last month's key data generally showed a worsening inflationary recession. Relative monthly strength, reported for several indicators of business activity, were not too meaningful. Where the affected
numbers are highly volatile, of suspect quality or subject to unusual seasonal factors, countertrend reporting usually is just a one-month aberration. Changes in economic direction are foreshadowed by shifts in leading indicators, not by shifts in coincident or lagging indicators, and most of the better indicators continue to confirm a deepening economic contraction. On the inflation front, annualized CPI inflation, year-to-date
April, is running 4.8% to 7.4% (seasonally adjusted or unadjusted). Annual growth in the SGS Ongoing M3 has broken above 13%, rivaling levels seen before the severe 1973 - 1975 inflationary recession.

Flash Update May, 28th, 2007 • Housing and Durable Goods Consistent with Faltering Economy
• Downside Data Likely in Week Ahead
• Wall Street Hypesters Fan False Hopes of Economic Turn
• On Thursday, regularly-volatile new home sales were reported up 16.2% for the month of April, and Wall Street’s spinmeisters went to town. The hypesters who tried to weave that isolated and volatile number into a housing recovery story would be comfortable working for the propaganda ministry of the average totalitarian state.

Flash Update May, 20th, 2007 • Alternate CPI Holds at 10.2% Annual Inflation
• Industrial Production and Housing Data Show Faltering Economy
• Annualized Year-to-Date CPI Shows Serious Inflation
• There was little startling in last week's economic reporting, net of some major revisions and usual seasonal-factor distortions. The inflationary recession continues, and data in the weeks ahead should confirm ongoing deterioration.

Flash Update May, 12th, 2007 • Annual M3 Growth Accelerates to 12.8%
• Retail Sales and Trade Deficit Take Hits, as PPI Booms
• Fed Hints at Inflationary Recession
• Comments from the U.S. central bank usually are couched in such cautious and careful language
as to make a Wall Street attorney blush. Removing the regular platitudes as to likely economic expansion and inflation moderation in the coming quarters, the crux of the May 9th FOMC statement went: "Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. … the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." That is as close as the Fed will get to acknowledging a recessionary inflation, until well
after the fact of broad market recognition. Last week's economic reporting further moved market expectations towards the unthinkable combination of a contracting economy beset by high inflation.

April 2007 Edition May, 7th, 2007 • April Payroll Contraction Appears to Have Been Masked
• M3 Growth Surges to 9-11 Liquefaction Levels and Worse
• Mounting Inflationary Recession Has Hobbled Fed
• Intensifying Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Loom
• Knees would be knocking audibly in the credit markets, if the Fed still reported M3 growth. Annual growth (SGS Ongoing M3 series) accelerated sharply in April to 12.9%, from 11.7% in March. The last time annual M3 growth approached 13%, the Fed was liquefying the financial system in the wake of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Before that, the year was 1981 and official annual CPI inflation was running about 10%. If 10% inflation sounds familiar, that is roughly the level of annual CPI inflation that would be reported today using the CPI methodologies of 1980. Exacerbating the financial catastrophe that slowly is unfolding for the U.S. markets, the economy is in a deepening recession and the U.S. dollar has begun suffering nascent selling pressures. In terms of monthly averages, gold already is at an all-time high, and the trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time low. Out of touch with reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps bouncing to new highs.

Flash Update April, 29th, 2007 • Key Dollar Measure Hits All-Time Low
• First-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.26%, GDP Deflator at 3.97%
• Business Activity Tumbles as M3 Growth and Inflation Fears Soar
• Inflationary Recession Can Trigger Massive Dollar Selling
• The trade-weighted U.S. dollar hit a record low last week, as the markets increasingly recognized the downturn in economic activity, in conjunction with rising inflation that the Fed seems to be "fighting" with accelerating broad money growth. The faltering fundamentals for the greenback included the ongoing bottom-bouncing of the President's approval rating. The U.S. currency is at the precipice and shortly could come under massive selling pressure. Dollar dumping would create turmoil in the domestic U.S. markets, pressuring long-term interest rates to the upside and equity prices to the downside. Never before have the U.S. markets faced an economic crisis while being so heavily dependent on foreign capital for liquidity.

Flash Update April, 22nd, 2007 • Annual Inflation Soars as Economic Indicators Continue to Tank
• With Deepening Inflationary Recession, Weakening Dollar and Strengthening Gold, Equities Boom?
• Leave it to Wall Street's perverted spinmeistering to hype a 0.4% surge in annual CPI inflation as good news. The hype, of course, surrounded a reported 0.2% decline in so-called "core" inflation, which is relevant only to those poor souls living in the gray twilight of existence, where they consume neither food nor energy. Nonetheless, combined with ongoing weak economic data, general selling pressure against the U.S. dollar and upside movement in the price of gold, the happy inflation hype has been enough to push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new highs. While the trends in weakening data and U.S. dollar and strengthening gold will tend to intensify, mounting irrationality in equities trading has set up stocks to be turned on their heads.

March 2007 Edition April, 9th, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Deepens as Markets Sense a Problem
• March Annual M3 Growth Jumps to 11.6%
• Foreign Investors Shunning Treasuries?
• Handling Hyperinflation in a Near-Cashless Society
• Dollar Sell-Off and Gold Boom Still Lie in Offing
• Despite continued rapid deterioration in the current inflationary recession, and despite growing market recognition of the intractable difficulties with both inflation and business activity, there are those on Wall Street who just seem unable to accept the concept of inflation without a strong economy. Give the markets a
stronger-than-expected employment report, and rumblings start of "full employment" triggering a round of wage inflation and Fed tightenings. Inflation is a problem — due to oil, dollar and monetary issues — but not due to strong economic demand. With consumer liquidity squeezed dry, there is no risk of the economy overheating. With actual unemployment around 12%, there is no risk of inflation pressures from the economy being at full employment.

Flash Alert April, 3rd, 2007 • Inflationary Recession Continues to Deepen
• Retail Sales Running About 0.8% Lower in Revision
• Negligible "Final" GDP Revision Indicates Pending Major Downside Annual Revision
• March Jobs Data Should be Soft
• The inflationary
recession continues to deepen, with economic reporting generally surprising markets on the downside of expectations and inflation surprising markets on the upside. Last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke felt it necessary to clarify that the Fed still has a problem with inflation, despite slowing business
activity. Inflation concerns have not been helped by mounting tensions in
the Middle East or by rising oil and gasoline prices.

Flash Update March, 27th, 2007 • Major Revisions to Housing, Retail Sales and Production Promise Lower GDP Growth
• Where the annualized quarterly fourth-quarter GDP inflation-adjusted growth rate revised from 3.5% in its "advance" reporting, to 2.2% in its
"preliminary" reporting, further downward revision is likely in Thursday's "final" reporting, due to significant revisions in underlying economic series.

Flash Update March, 18th, 2007 • Resurging Inflation Again Sinks Real Retail Sales
• Inflationary Recession Intensifies
• Last week's CPI, PPI, retail sales and industrial production releases added some new detail to the continuing deterioration in current economic and inflation conditions. Indeed, as the markets may be beginning to understand, a weak economy and rising inflation can happen together.

Flash Update March, 11th, 2007 • Likely Reality in Troubled Economic Data: February Payrolls Contracted; January Trade Deficit Did Not Shrink
• February M3 Annual Growth at 10.9%
• Data-Quality Deterioration Deepens
• With financial-market speculation moving back to a "recession or growth" focus, poor-quality reporting of
heavily followed economic data does a disservice to the investing public. This is particularly true when Wall Street hypesters weave related stories that have little relationship to reality, but that happen to help sell
certain financial products. The government would do well to delay its publication schedule by a full month for key economic data that usually suffer heavy revision. In the trade-off between quality and timeliness of reporting, little would be lost, since first estimates of the payroll and GDP data, for example, usually are worthless.

Flash Update March, 4th, 2007 • Recession Continues to Barrel Along
• Market Disquiet Mounts As "Nesting Season" Nears
• Deepening Recession Helps Trigger Greenspan Waffle and Market Wobble
• When consensus economic forecasters start to talk of recession, usually a downturn has become a certainty, with economic activity already having contracted for at least six-months to a year. Wall Street economists, and Administration and Federal Reserve officials, typically are the last to talk of the politically unthinkable, for fear of negative reactions they might trigger in the financial markets. The game is afoot.

January/February 2007 Edition February, 20th, 2007 • Economic Activity in Rapid Decline as Miracle Recovery Fades
• Central Bank Dollar Holdings Exacerbate Hyperinflation Risk
• Stock Market Euphoria Misses Economic and Political Realities
• Dollar Sell-Off, Gold Boom Lie Ahead
• An upside blip in economic reporting from unseasonably good weather spiked some December economic data, and market expectations for the economy soared. The U.S. economy, however, does not turn quickly without warning, and early January data showed the recession not only to be very much in place, but also to be deepening rapidly. Although inflation will continue to rise without a further oil price spike, sudden indications of renewed possible terrorist attacks and rumblings of a possible U.S. attack on Iran hold the potential for a rekindled surge in oil prices. Under these circumstances, the U.S. financial markets remain in peril, with higher interest rates, lower equity prices, heavy dollar selling and significant
gold buying on the horizon.

Flash Update February, 14th, 2007 • Retail Sales Annual Growth Nears Zero
• Newsletter Update

Flash Update February, 4th, 2007 • M3 Growth Hits 11%, December Jobs Revised Upward by 933,000
• The SGS Alternate Data pages have been updated for M3, GDP and the U.S. Dollar. Based on three weeks of reporting through January 22nd, annual M3 growth hit 11.0% in January, helped by rising M2 growth.

Flash Update January, 31st, 2007 • GDP overstated by bogus trade reporting
• Upside risk to Janurary jobs report
• Details on upcoming Newsletter.

Flash Update January, 21st, 2007 • Weather Distorts Data
• 4th-Quarter Production Contracts
• Annual Alternate Inflation at 25-Year High
• M3 Growth Continues to Accelerate
• December’s unusual weather patterns appear to have distorted monthly growth to the upside not only for payrolls — touched upon in the prior Flash Update — but also for retail sales, industrial production and housing starts. Actual economic activity does not turn quickly or sharply without advance
indications. Continued distortions are likely, with the data swinging back the other way in the next couple of months. That said, the inflationary
recession has continued to deteriorate.

Flash Update January, 7th, 2007 • December Payroll Growth Understated But Not Credible
• Unusual Weather Patterns Promise Major Data Distortions
• Is Bureau of Labor Statistics Playing Games with the Credit Market?
• Highly unusual reporting and revision patterns for the jobs data were seen again, for December. Employment conditions are close to showing a recession, but each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps filling in prior periods with levels of upside revisions that are unprecedented outside of the annual benchmark revisions. The revisions are unusual enough for the BLS to have published a statement last month proclaiming that the changes were not unprecedented. Something very strange is going on in the reporting.

December 2006 Newsletter January, 2nd, 2007 • Recession Recognition Likely in 2007
• Dollar Poised for 30% Plunge
• Dollar, Debt Monetization and Oil Prices Boost Inflation Outlook
• Gold Easily Could Top $1,000
• Fed to Tighten in Dollar Defense?
• Equities and Bonds to Suffer
• Hyperinflationary Depression Likely by 2010
• The U.S. economy and financial markets face significant peril in 2007, with the dollar sitting on the brink of a major collapse. The positive 2006 U.S equity markets and reasonably tranquil credit markets belie the pending turmoil that already has been set in motion by a rapidly deepening inflationary recession and exacerbated by the de facto long-term insolvency of the U.S. government.

Flash Update December, 30th, 2006 • New Year Faces Financial Peril
•Year-End Newsletter by January 2nd
•Accelerating growth in the formerly broadest of U.S. monetary aggregates (M3) offers a hint of what will be one of the major, ongoing market concerns in 2007: inflation. The other key economic features of the year ahead will be a deepening, structural recession, and a U.S. government fiscal disaster careening out of control. Where 2006 closed out the year with higher equity prices and somewhat higher interest rates, it also saw a significant surge in the price of gold and the early stages of a major weakening of U.S. dollar. The U.S. equity and credit face bleak prospects in 2007, with strong upside potential for gold and a massive downside potential for the U.S. dollar.

Alert December, 16th, 2006 • 2006 GAAP-Based Federal Deficit Jumps to $4.6 Trillion
• Total Federal Obligations at $54.6 Trillion
• Energy Pricing Gimmicks Distort CPI and Trade Deficit
• Last week’s U.S. Treasury’s 2006 GAAP-based federal deficit deteriorated sharply, well beyond any possible chance of containment. Other government reports showed curious understatements of both the CPI and trade deficit, as the ongoing inflationary recession continued to unfold.

Flash Update December, 11th, 2006 • M3 Growth Tops 10%
• Inflation Signals Turn Higher Again
• First Post-Election Jobs Data Show Slowing Economy
• Economic releases of the last week or so continued showing a rapidly deepening recession, along with early confirmation of inflation resuming its upward trend. Beyond ongoing softness in the dollar and some upside movement in oil prices threatening inflation, broad money supply growth is accelerating to the upside.

November 2006 Newsletter November, 29th, 2006 • Dollar Selling Will Threaten Credit and Equity Markets
• Economic Activity Continues to Crumble
• Distorted Inflation Plunge Bottoms Out
• Gold Prices to Rebound Further
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession continued to intensify last month, at the same time that domestic and global political tensions increased sharply. Main Street U.S.A. dumped the Republican controlled Congress for a variety of reasons, not least of which were rapidly deteriorating pocketbook issues. Reflecting a growing market awareness of these problems, the U.S. dollar has come under some selling pressure. When the current minor selling turns massive, the foreign-capital-dependent domestic markets will face a terrible liquidity squeeze, with resulting interest rate spikes and equity selling. Gold should do well under the circumstances.

Flash Update November, 20th, 2006 • Exaggerated Gas Price Drop Pushes Inflation Reporting to Nadir
• M3 Growth Hits Four-Year High
• Economic Activity Continues to Crumble
• Post-Election Environment Set for Rebounding Inflation and Deepening Recession
• The inflationary recession is picking up momentum. The various special factors that have depressed near-term inflation reporting have run their course, while economic data ranging from retail sales to housing continue to signal plummeting economic activity. Such is not a happy environment for the traditional financial markets.

Flash Update November, 6th, 2006 • October Jobs Data Appear Rigged
• Unemployment Drop Statistically Indistinguishable from Increase
• Jobs Gain Statistically Indistinguishable from Decline
• With continued Republican control of both the House and the Senate at risk, the Bush Administration had both the motive and the opportunity to manipulate the October labor report in its favor. Beyond the reported gain in jobs and drop in unemployment being statistically indistinguishable from a drop in jobs and a gain in unemployment, were the data rigged? While there is no smoking gun, a strong odor of cordite permeates the air. The level of pre-orchestrated hype and a wide variety of unusual reporting characteristics in the October labor data argue strongly in favor of manipulation.

October 2006 Newsletter October, 30th, 2006 • Collapsing Economic Activity Shows Accelerating Recession
• Twisted Inflation Plunge Will Reverse Post-Election
• Is Fed Controlling Manipulations?
• U.S. Productivity Has Been Falling Since NAFTA
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession remains in place. The drop-off in economic activity indicated by recent reporting is nothing short of extraordinary. Recession speculation should increase markedly. Also, the plunge in CPI inflation was to be expected, given the recent drop in energy prices and year-ago comparisons with hurricane effects. While the inflation downturn will be very short-lived, economic activity is going to get a great deal worse.

Flash Update October, 16th, 2006 • Observations on Trade, Budget and Retail Sales Data — Un-hyped
• Give Wall Street a bad number, and a positive spin will be generated. Contrary to the popular financial-media hype last week, the news on the trade deficit, the budget deficit and retail sales could not have been much worse. If you like the "core inflation concept," you will love the "core trade deficit" and "core retail sales."

Flash Update October, 9th, 2006 • Political Manipulation of Labor Data Kicks into High Gear
•September Payrolls Fell 40,000 Using Consistent Seasonal Adjustments
• The broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession remains in place. The September employment report showed severe deterioration, despite a number of reporting gimmicks. Faced with an electorate that is in economic pain, the Bush Administration has tried to make the bad numbers disappear for a while, but results have been mixed. This is despite the comparative annual boosts starting to show up in data from the effects of last year’s terrible hurricane season. The heavily touted annual gain in September retail stores sales is a prime example of such an effect.

September 2006 Newsletter September, 25th, 2006 • Upsides for Inflation and Gold Have Not Yet Been Touched
• Business Downturn Accelerates
• Poverty Report Suggests GDP Reporting Fraud
• Katrina and Pre-Election Manipulations Distort Current Numbers
• Dollar Selling and Higher Interest Rates in Offing
• The economy’s crash landing was evident in most economic reporting of the last month. On the plus side, volatile oil and gasoline prices have enjoyed a short-term decline — just in time for the election — but inflation problems are only beginning. Despite unusual reporting distortions that will surface in the next two months, the broad outlook for a deepening inflationary recession continues. While these conditions remain bearish long-term for the U.S. equity and credit markets and for the U.S. dollar, they remain extremely bullish for gold.

Flash Update September, 5th, 2006 • Recession Surfaces Despite Manipulation of GDP Data
• Help-Wanted Advertising and Consumer Confidence Plunge Anew
• Poverty Survey Suggests the 2001 Recession Never Ended
• While Wall Street tries to spin a soft-landing tale for the economy — thanking Mr. Bernanke’s genius — a number of reports already are showing scattered wreckage from the crash landing.

August 2006 Newsletter August, 21st, 2006 • Inflationary Recession Deteriorated Sharply in Second Quarter
• Alternate Measures: Consumer Inflation Hits 11% with Annual GDP Growth Down 0.8%
• July M3 Annual Growth at 9.1%. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee "paused" in its string of rate hikes, citing moderating economic growth and hopes for moderating inflation. With the economy in a deepening inflationary recession, the Fed once more is feeding pabulum to the financial markets in an effort to fend off disorderly declines in the U.S. dollar and in the equity and credit markets. Inflation is far from peaking, and interest rates are going to spike sharply. In a related manner, the run-up in oil prices is not over, and the price of gold has a tremendous upside move ahead of it.

Flash Update August, 7th, 2006 • The employment data arebeginning to act recession-like, and that normally would put the Fed into aneasing mode. Yet, as evidence grows of slowing
•falling economic activity,evidence of accelerating inflation is mounting, too. There is little thecentral bank can do to contain inflation or to stimulate the economy.Accordingly, Fed considerations and activity will be dominated by efforts tomaintain stability in the financial markets and the U.S. dollar.

Alert July, 28th, 2006 • GDP Manipulation Uncovered — Instead of the 2.5% growth reported for second-quarter 2006 GDP, the economy contracted. Growth fell by more than 0.5% when corrected for unusual inflation gimmicks used to understate GDP deflation. Previously reported GDP growth underwent meaningful downward revisions.

Flash Update July, 24th, 2006 • Housing, Retail and CPI Data Confirm Recession Signals.Two key series — Retail Sales and Housing Starts — have generated solid recession warning signals, based on reports published last week. This is as anticipated in the July 17th newsletter. Once generated, such signals always have been followed by the signaled contracting or booming economy.

July 2006 Newsletter July, 17th, 2006 • Second-Quarter Real Retail Sales Contract 1.3%;Employment Indicators Plunge As Inflation Soars; Fed President Suspects CPI Understatement. Collapsing economic activity and mounting inflation dominated last month’s economic reporting. An inflationary recession is in play, and there is little the Administration or the Fed can do about it. This has created a nightmarish scenario for the financial markets.At the same time, international tensions have escalated to the point where risk of a conventional world war is the highest it has been in 61 years.With U.S. economic and global political conditions unraveling so rapidly, underlying fundamentals do not get much worse for the equity and credit markets, nor much better for gold. Circumstances are fluid and disorderly markets are possible with little or no warning. The U.S. dollar faces severe selling pressure in the near future, although political flight-to-safety effects are providing the greenback with temporary, albeit short-lived, support. The timing of the dollar’s demise ultimately will determine the timing of the fate of the other markets.

Alert June, 12th, 2006 • The reporting of March’s sharp trade improvement appears to have been a deliberate fabrication, aimed at salving the troubled financial markets of the time! Benchmark revisions released along with the monthly April trade data show that the sharp "improvement" in the March trade deficit — reported at a time of high U.S. dollar and political stress — was rigged. While it is standard practice by the statistical agencies to adjust pre-benchmark revision reporting to coincide with the benchmarks, such adjustments are made to month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter changes, not to the absolute level. To my knowledge, pre-adjusting the level of a series such as the trade deficit is unprecedented. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is more politicized than the Census Bureau. The BEA now "participates" in the trade release with Census, which once handled the monthly number exclusively. Violating common reporting principles with the trade data, the BEA likely repeated the process in the GDP reporting.

June 2006 Edition June, 7th, 2006 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed, but the financial markets are beginning to catch up with underlying reality. Faltering economic activity and mounting inflation have created a nightmarish conundrum for the political operatives both in the Bush Administration and at the Federal Reserve. Soft economic numbers and high inflation are being nonsensically spun as "conflicting data." An inflationary recession is in play, and there is little the Administration or the Fed can do about it. The pabulum fed to the investing public — that a weak economy means low inflation and interest rates — cannot work in the current environment. Any conflicts that arise are not in the economic data but in simplistic views on economic activity espoused by Wall Street, or in the statistical manipulation goals of the politicians. Those latter issues explain recent Administration and Fed activities — ranging from Fed Chairman Bernanke’s tap dancing on the inflation outlook to the appointment of a new Treasury Secretary — all anchored in putting a positive spin on an impossible situation and avoiding a financial-market meltdown before November 7th. The markets are not cooperating. Dollar selling and gold buying have just begun, and so have the negative reactions in the credit and equity markets.

May 2006 Edition May, 17th, 2006 • The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession has moved well beyond stagflation. Circumstances deteriorated markedly in the last month, and market perceptions of same have begun to surface, as exhibited by strong gold and a weak dollar. In addition, the trouble is not confined to a weak economy and higher inflation. It also includes a foundering administration and increasing odds of a shift of power coming out of November’s election. Although purposely suppressed in the "official" data (PPI and CPI), there is an inflation problem. It is driven by oil, and increasingly, it also is being driven by dollar woes. These are factors separate from strong economic activity that commonly is viewed as the source of inflation. Fed tightening — designed in theory to slow the economy in order to slow inflation — will do little to cool the current problem. Moreover, current Fed activity has been the reverse of the jawboned inflation fighting, aimed at stimulating liquidity, not killing it. While short-term interest rates have been increased, broad money growth also has been soaring, at least prior to its reporting cut-off. Excessive money growth tends to be an inflation stimulant, not a retardant.

April 2006 Edition April, 12th, 2006 • There are two broad types of political manipulation of economic data, systematic and current-event, and both are at work distorting economic reports. The current-event manipulation, however, is what will dominate key economic figures out through the mid-term election. It involves direct political intervention in the reporting process in order to enhance the reported results. Indeed, the relatively happy news from the employment
•unemployment front in March appears to have been carefully crafted by Administration manipulators. Similar efforts are likely to generate a reported surge in first-quarter GDP growth, as well as ongoing "strong" jobs data.Nonetheless, continued negative inflation-adjusted growth in money supply (M2), monthly declines in key components of the purchasing managers surveys, sharp downturns in annual change for housing starts and help-wanted advertising, flat to negative annual change in consumer confidence and real earnings, and a record trade deficit all continue to show faltering economic activity. In addition, the price of gold has more than doubled in the last four years, to what is now $600 per ounce. Bullion is sending out a warning of extreme danger facing the U.S. dollar and of rapidly increasing risk of severe global instability. Meanwhile, the political geniuses running Washington continue to fret over the latest polling numbers, while ignoring the fiscal and structural economic crises unfolding around them.

March 2006 Edition March, 15th, 2006 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed. Since the beginning of 2005 a number of key indicators have been nearing or at their fail-safe points, with four indicators moving beyond those levels, signaling a recession. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have never sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession showed signs of deepening in the latest reporting. Monthly data show plunging new orders for durable goods and contracting industrial production, retail sales, help-wanted advertising, real average weekly earnings and consumer confidence. Consumer credit growth also remained sub-par. As to inflation, both the CPI and PPI topped expectations, and oil prices have remained strong. Also published recently were the full trade data for 2005. Based on fourth-quarter GDP, net exports and employment data, the U.S. trade deficit has cost 8.8 million jobs over time, with 800,000 jobs lost in 2005, alone. The current edition of "SGS" will examine how these numbers were estimated.

February 2006 Edition February, 9th, 2006 • The 2005 to 2007 recession almost broke to the surface recently, with the Commerce Department’s "advance" estimate of fourth-quarter 2005 GDP. The report was about as honest a one as Commerce has published in a number of years. Somehow, though, considering the Labor Department’s increasing reporting shenanigans last month, the chances of the dawning of a new era of straight-forward economic reports at this time are nil. It is beyond common sense that the current political hacks will allow recession reporting to surface prior to the November election. What almost broke to the surface in the recent GDP reporting most certainly will be beaten back with a club in the months ahead. In general, our broad economic outlook has not changed. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession continues to deepen, and the approaching recession, inflation and risks of heavy dollar selling will offer a nightmarish environment for the still Pollyannaish financial markets. However, negative GDP growth is not likely to surface in regular government reporting until after the November 2006 election, given the rampant political manipulation of most key government numbers.

January 2006 Edition January, 11th, 2006 • As the administration hypes the economic boom shown in its manipulated data, less popularly followed numbers continue to show an inflationary recession. The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System (EWS) was activated in May and signaled the onset of a formal recession early in July 2005. However, negative GDP growth is not likely to surface in regular government reporting until after the November election, given the rampant political manipulation of the GDP, employment and CPI. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) should time the downturn to mid-2005 and announce same also sometime after the election, so as not to be deemed politically motivated in its timing. Further, thanks to the largely ignored federal budget and trade deficits that now are spiraling out of control, the current downturn is at high risk of deepening into a hyperinflationary recession. Mounting concerns outside the political arena have been one factor behind the ongoing strength in gold prices. The growing awareness of the insurmountable problems associated with these deficits will add significant downside risk to the financial markets as 2006 progresses.

December 2005 Edition Supplement (Re: FY2005 Treasury GAAP Accounting) December, 19th, 2005 • The "2005 Financial Report of the United States Government," published December 15th by the U.S. Treasury, reported a $760.0 billion net deficit in U.S. government operations for fiscal 2005, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), but excluding ongoing liabilities to Social Security, Medicare and similar programs. The $760.0 billion was up 23.2% from 2004’s $615.6 billion GAAP-based deficit, while the official, accounting-gimmicked 2005 deficit of $318.5 declined by 22.8% from $412.3 billion in 2004. However, net of all accounting gimmicks, the actual federal budget deficit is running at an unsustainable, system-dooming pace of $3.5 trillion per year, roughly 11 times the size of the $318.5 billion accounting-gimmicked official deficit for 2005. The U.S. Government’s negative net worth widened to $49.4 trillion in 2005, with total government liabilities topping $50 trillion for the first time.

December 2005 Edition December, 7th, 2005 • In general, the broad economic outlook has not changed. The 2005 to 2007 inflationary recession continues to deepen. This outlook is predicated on economic activity that already has taken place and does not consider any additional risks from exogenous factors. Most economic data already are softening, and the trend will accelerate sharply. Since the beginning of 2005 a number of key indicators have been nearing or are at their fail-safe points. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have never sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. Lower tax receipts will combine with disaster recovery spending and the ongoing war in Iraq to accelerate deterioration in the federal deficit. Negative GDP growth will not surface in regular government reporting until at least next year, now that it is clear that Katrina’s impact has been neutralized in official reporting, and that political manipulation of the GDP, employment and CPI is rampant.

November 2005 Edition - Supplement (Re: M3) November, 23rd, 2005 • Unilaterally and without reasonable explanation, the Fed has decided to stop reporting monetary aggregate M3, the broadest of the money-supply measures and probably the most important statistic published by the U.S. central bank. Of the liquidity measures, inflation-adjusted M3 is the best leading indicator of economic activity. Despite its strong growth in nominal terms, net of inflation (calculated on a pre-Clinton Era basis), M3 generated a reliable recession signal several months back. What game the Federal Reserve is playing will become clear soon enough. However, the chances that M3 is being eliminated because it merely duplicates M2 are nil. The cost factor the Fed cited in its announcement also is a canard.

November 2005 Edition November, 21st, 2005 • Indeed, it is the best of times and the worst of times, depending on which economic releases one reads. Unfortunately, underlying economic reality continues to support the latter outlook. Weighed historically against the various political games played with economic reporting, the present state of affairs is without domestic precedent. In the practiced propaganda of totalitarian states, the lack of alternative information makes it difficult to quantify the manipulations. In contrast, what is happening with the US statistics can be demonstrated with alternate data sources — often from within the government itself. The phony numbers appear to have broad public acceptance within the financial community, despite occasional questions being raised in the free press. Regrettably, the financial community’s acceptance of the data is far more related to business self-interest than to an honest public assessment of economic conditions.

October 2005 Edition October, 12th, 2005 • Economic numbers of the last month broadly confirmed an intensifying inflationary recession. The effects of the devastation in New Orleans and along much of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast have intensified the negative national economic trends but were not the root cause. Nonetheless, hurricane effects will dominate headline-grabbing economic reports of the next month or two, and Katrina likely will take much of the blame for a recession that has been in development for over a year and underway since July.

JWSGS - SEPTEMBER 2005 EDITION September, 7th, 2005 • The impact of Hurricane Katrina now becomes the convenient excuse for an inflationary recession, the ingredients and manifestations of which were falling neatly into place long before this catastrophic event came along. Make no mistake about it, however — Katrina’s influence, if it is "permitted" to find its way into government economic releases, will be very harsh. A sampling of some of the likely storm-enhanced data swings: An addition of 1% to the September CPI, third-quarter GDP that shows no growth in real terms, and a decline in September payrolls of 300,000 accompanied by a 0.4% increase in the unemployment rate. These outcomes would have serious shock value, but from a purely political perspective, it might be advisable to report them anyway, while Katrina remains fresh in everyone’s mind to assume the blame.

August 2005 Edition August, 10th, 2005 • A number of key economic indicators ran counter to our forecasts last month, particularly July employment. Government calculations of seasonal factors can occasionally suffer an across-the-board major distortion that will throw off monthly results for a month or two. Such appeared to be the case in April, and it remains a possibility for June, too. Seasonal-factor rigging also has been used historically as a tool for near-term political manipulation of data. Given flagging presidential ratings, it’s possible the Bush administration has moved into a political-manipulation mode. Nonetheless, the broad economic outlook has not changed, and the 2005-2007 inflationary recession continues to unfold.

Alert July, 15th, 2005 • Yesterday morning’s report of 0.0% consumer price inflation (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted) during June appears to have been a political fabrication. It was accomplished through the manipulation of reported energy prices. As a result of no reported inflation for the month, "official" annual CPI inflation dipped from 2.8% in May, to 2.5% in June.

JWSGS - JULY 2005 EDITION July, 13th, 2005 • The 2005-2007 inflationary recession continues to unfold and appears ready to offer up its first real data shocks of the cycle: an outright contraction in July payrolls combined with a meaningful jump in the unemployment rate. Upcoming trade deficits should widen sharply, and industrial production is soon due for monthly contractions. Augmenting SGS recession warning signals already in place (money supply, purchasing managers new orders index, real average weekly earnings), help-wanted advertising and housing starts had their three-month moving averages turn negative on a year-to-year basis in last month’s reporting.

Federal Deficit Reality: An Update July, 7th, 2005 • From time to time, the U.S. financial markets manifest some concern about the nation’s twin deficits — the federal budget and the current account shortfalls. These episodes have been short-lived, however. Generally, the markets have been very sanguine about these problems — much too sanguine, in our view! We believe there is a great deal about which to be concerned in both areas, and that longer run, the U.S. markets will indeed reflect it — negatively, of course. This article updates our thoughts, etc. on the federal budget deficit.

JWSGS - JUNE 2005 EDITION June, 8th, 2005 • The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System was activated last month and continues to signal the onset of a formal recession this month (June) or early in third-quarter 2005. Since the beginning of 2005, a number of key indicators have been nearing or at their fail-safe points. In the last month or two, several indicators moved below those levels, signaling an imminent recession. Once beyond their fail-safe points, these indicators have not sent out false alarms, either for an economic boom or bust. ALSO THIS MONTH: SGS announces the introduction of its own consumer price index!

JWSGS - MAY 2005 EDITION May, 11th, 2005 • The Shadow Government Statistics’ Early Warning System (SGS-EWS) has been activated, signaling the onset of a formal recession in the later part of the current quarter or early part of third-quarter 2005. Sporadic, negative GDP growth likely will not surface in government reporting until later in 2005 or 2006, and the National Bureau of Economic Research will likely time the downturn to mid-2005 and announce same sometime in early-to-mid 2006.

JWSGS - APRIL 2005 EDITION April, 5th, 2005 • Contrary to conventional Wall Street wisdom, high inflation and recession can co-exist in a very uncomfortable and financially debilitating environment. Inflationary recession is about to replace the stagflation of the last couple quarters. Slowly increasing weakness has been evident in many economic indicators, and the first formal recession signal from the SGS early warning system appears ready to kick in within the next couple weeks.

JWSGS - MARCH 2005 EDITION March, 9th, 2005 • Stagnation and inflation remain the words for describing the current economic environment in the United States. Reporting distortions overstated February employment and understated the January Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, the deterioration in the 2004 trade deficit cost 1.4 million American jobs.

JWSGS - FEBRUARY 2005 EDITION February, 9th, 2005 • The current economic picture remains one of stagflation. The view for later in the year, however, increasingly looks like recession, as key indicators keep flirting with generating a recession warning. No solid warning, however, is in place, yet. ALSO THIS MONTH: Thoughts about how the Social Security crisis threatens US financial stability.

January 2005 Edition January, 12th, 2005 • Recession signals remain borderline as stagflation intensifies. Meanwhile, U.S. obligations exploded by 31% during 2004, to 409% of GDP. And if you were invested outside the dollar last year, it is probable you comfortably outperformed the Dow Jones industrials!

Alert December, 16th, 2004 • Treasury reports $11.1 trillion 2004 GAAP-basis deficit, which was equal to 96% of GDP; inflation pressures will intensify.

JWSGS - DECEMBER 2004 EDITION December, 8th, 2004 • Stagflation signals intensify, a recession warning is possible in the next two months, and the dual deficits and the dollar do matter!

JWSGS - NOVEMBER 2004 EDITION November, 18th, 2004 • Stagflation or worse signaled by key indicators; payrolls boosted by unusual seasonal adjustment.

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